What is probability really? Nassim Taleb (Nassim Nicholas Taleb) explains to me how he understands it:

Links to the full conversation: YouTube: Apple Podcasts: Spotify: Transcript:

@nntaleb A negative probability (which Taleb discusses here) is the likelihood of learning anything from this word salad

@nntaleb I didn’t understand what he meant by “kernel” at first. Looking it up in Statistical Consequences helped.

@nntaleb Hey man much love but this is nonsense

@nntaleb Always strikes me as a supremely self-confident BS artist, thin-skinned and annoying.

@nntaleb POP QUIZ: Probability is A) a nonnegative countably additive set function P defined on a σ-algebra with P(Ω) = 1 B) a “kernel” that can be negative

@nntaleb How you know if someone understands something, you watch their ability to explain it.

@nntaleb all I needed to know about this guy is Xian's review of his book.

@nntaleb somebody get this ape to unblock me immediately i need to bother him about this