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When Costco CEO Ron Vachris recently visited Taiwan, it underscored a profound mystery: how can a single retail giant be wildly celebrated in two markets, yet reveal two completely opposite economic realities? Costco is deeply loved in both Taiwan and China, with opening days drawing historic, ecstatic crowds. But...

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UnveiledChina

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47,600 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Taiwan (Republic of China) is the most brainwashed island in the Far East. 🇹🇼 Tang Xiang Long 唐湘龍 is a political commentator from Taiwan who is clean enough to stay out of Jail. It is common knowledge among Taiwanese that the current ruling DPP government goes after influencers critical of the regime. Reality check that too many people in Taiwan still refuse to face, according to 唐湘龙 Xiang Long Ge: • 193 member states in the United Nations. Roughly 182 of them recognize only one China. Taiwan is China. That is the international standard. ROC/PRC both claim all of China. • Inside the entire UN system there is only one official designation for Taiwan: Taiwan Province of China. Not “Taiwan.” Not “Chinese Taipei.” Taiwan Province of China. Whether you like it or not is irrelevant. That is the terminology. • You can keep running your regime's messaging and misinforming the public. That is your choice. But when you are telling the story, look at the actual facts and tell the truth to the people who actually have to live with the consequences. Note: The DPP government has heavily revised Taiwanese history books and education platforms to support a Taiwanese Independence Narrative. • Talking tough is easy. Being a “hawk” politician in today’s environment is easier than being a singer. Anyone can do the loud part. Real courage is being willing to take the criticism, the labels, and the reports when you say something that is unpopular but true. • Look at Ukraine in 2022. Before the war they limited opposition voices, restricted media criticism of the government, and left only “civic groups” that later turned out to be heavily funded by the United States. • Three years later: ~20% of territory gone massive population loss majority of exports destroyed over half of grain production hit Would you trade places with them right now? • If we are going to discuss war, discuss it seriously analytically instead of just performing toughness. • During World War II the two countries that paid the highest human price and still ended up on the winning side were China and Russia. Britain, France and the United States combined suffered far fewer military deaths than China alone. • America was not some pure hero from day one. Before Pearl Harbor, the United States was playing multiple sides while Europe and Asia were already on fire. Only after being attacked did the narrative change. • Under Japanese rule, many Taiwanese followed the Japanese war machine across Asia. Some people today still speak with pride about Japanese connections in the family. If Japan had not been defeated and Taiwan returned to China, a large number of those people would have been treated as war criminals and aggressors. • How can you be so arrogant and lie with a courageous face? your face skin must be very thicc. • Listen carefully to recent American statements. Trump has openly said he does not rule out using force to take Greenland. The same language appears regarding Panama. • When Taiwan hears those words, the reaction is quiet or comfortable. When the mainland says it does not rule out force regarding Taiwan Separatists, the reaction is completely different. Same type of language. Completely different emotional response. • No matter which party is in power in Taiwan, if you cannot maintain a basic, consistent position grounded in actual history and international reality, almost everything you say starts sounding ridiculous. • History does not care about your feelings or your campaign slogans. The numbers and the records are still there. The person being criticized here is Dai Wei Shan of the Democratic Progressive Party. She has recently been the target of public ire as she recently described benzopyrene (in a food-safety oil scandal) as a “natural substance,” which drew heavy flames. Thank you TT User Rita314218 for sharing the clip with me. The background music is a good fit for Xiang Long's righteous indignation.
4:40

Taiwan (Republic of China) is the most brainwashed island in the Far East. 🇹🇼 Tang Xiang Long 唐湘龍 is a political commentator from Taiwan who is clean enough to stay out of Jail. It is common knowledge among Taiwanese that the current ruling DPP government goes after influencers critical of the regime. Reality check that too many people in Taiwan still refuse to face, according to 唐湘龙 Xiang Long Ge: • 193 member states in the United Nations. Roughly 182 of them recognize only one China. Taiwan is China. That is the international standard. ROC/PRC both claim all of China. • Inside the entire UN system there is only one official designation for Taiwan: Taiwan Province of China. Not “Taiwan.” Not “Chinese Taipei.” Taiwan Province of China. Whether you like it or not is irrelevant. That is the terminology. • You can keep running your regime's messaging and misinforming the public. That is your choice. But when you are telling the story, look at the actual facts and tell the truth to the people who actually have to live with the consequences. Note: The DPP government has heavily revised Taiwanese history books and education platforms to support a Taiwanese Independence Narrative. • Talking tough is easy. Being a “hawk” politician in today’s environment is easier than being a singer. Anyone can do the loud part. Real courage is being willing to take the criticism, the labels, and the reports when you say something that is unpopular but true. • Look at Ukraine in 2022. Before the war they limited opposition voices, restricted media criticism of the government, and left only “civic groups” that later turned out to be heavily funded by the United States. • Three years later: ~20% of territory gone massive population loss majority of exports destroyed over half of grain production hit Would you trade places with them right now? • If we are going to discuss war, discuss it seriously analytically instead of just performing toughness. • During World War II the two countries that paid the highest human price and still ended up on the winning side were China and Russia. Britain, France and the United States combined suffered far fewer military deaths than China alone. • America was not some pure hero from day one. Before Pearl Harbor, the United States was playing multiple sides while Europe and Asia were already on fire. Only after being attacked did the narrative change. • Under Japanese rule, many Taiwanese followed the Japanese war machine across Asia. Some people today still speak with pride about Japanese connections in the family. If Japan had not been defeated and Taiwan returned to China, a large number of those people would have been treated as war criminals and aggressors. • How can you be so arrogant and lie with a courageous face? your face skin must be very thicc. • Listen carefully to recent American statements. Trump has openly said he does not rule out using force to take Greenland. The same language appears regarding Panama. • When Taiwan hears those words, the reaction is quiet or comfortable. When the mainland says it does not rule out force regarding Taiwan Separatists, the reaction is completely different. Same type of language. Completely different emotional response. • No matter which party is in power in Taiwan, if you cannot maintain a basic, consistent position grounded in actual history and international reality, almost everything you say starts sounding ridiculous. • History does not care about your feelings or your campaign slogans. The numbers and the records are still there. The person being criticized here is Dai Wei Shan of the Democratic Progressive Party. She has recently been the target of public ire as she recently described benzopyrene (in a food-safety oil scandal) as a “natural substance,” which drew heavy flames. Thank you TT User Rita314218 for sharing the clip with me. The background music is a good fit for Xiang Long's righteous indignation.

Larry 長祥

14,946 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

CHINA FORFEITS 450 MILLION BARRELS IN ONE MONTH: WHY OIL PRICES ARE CRASHING DESPITE RECORD INVENTORY DRAWS Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, revealed the single biggest reason oil prices have collapsed despite record-low inventories. China quietly slashed its oil imports by 4.9 million barrels per day in June alone, forfeiting nearly 450 million barrels and draining its own hidden stocks. This massive move has temporarily masked the true tightness in the physical market and created one of the largest disconnects between fundamentals and price in decades. The result is oil trading in the high 60s while the real balance sheet screams much higher. THE INVENTORY REALITY CHECK ➡️ Global oil inventories are at the lowest levels ever seen for this time of year. ➡️ We have moved from a 177 million barrel surplus before the war to a 141 million barrel deficit relative to the five-year average. ➡️ Total inventory draws since the conflict began reach 430 million barrels, creating a 508 million barrel swing compared to last year. ➡️ US commercial oil inventories now sit at their lowest level since at least 2016. THE PRODUCT SHORTAGE SIGNAL ➡️ Gasoline and distillate stocks show clear shortages in key regions. ➡️ Refinery crack spreads for gasoline and diesel have hit all-time highs, up 182 percent year to date. ➡️ These extreme margins prove strong underlying product demand that contradicts the weak price action. THE STRATEGIC RESERVE FLOOR ➡️ US strategic petroleum reserves have fallen to 325 million barrels. ➡️ That is the lowest level since June of 1983. ➡️ Advisers close to the issue see 300 million barrels as a practical floor the market cannot breach without serious consequences. THE CHINA STOCKPILE DRAIN ➡️ China cut oil imports by a staggering 4.9 million barrels per day in June. ➡️ They have forfeited nearly 450 million barrels of imports in a single month, drawing down invisible domestic stocks. ➡️ Yet every mobility indicator from flights to road traffic shows demand remains very strong. ➡️ This buying behavior is unsustainable and the return of Chinese demand will expose the real tightness. THE TEMPORARY SUPPLY SURGE ➡️ Post-truce tanker traffic out of the Strait has surged to about 10 ships per day. ➡️ Roughly 140 million barrels of previously sanctioned Iranian oil are now accessible to the market. ➡️ Still, 9.4 million barrels per day of regional production remains shut in across the Middle East. ➡️ The market is absorbing a short-term flood that analysts expect will fade within one to two months. THE FINANCIAL MARKET BLIND SPOT ➡️ Speculative net length in oil has collapsed back to pre-war levels. ➡️ The paper market is pricing oil as if the anticipated glut from before the conflict is still here. ➡️ Physical fundamentals point to an implied fair value of 130 to 140 dollars per barrel. THE ADMINISTRATION RESPONSE ➡️ Vice President JD Vance stated the goal is to refill the world's oil economy and restock supplies. "What the president has told us to do is to use this to sort of refill the world's oil economy to refill some stocks and then see where the hand is." ➡️ The timing of the truce announcement right before the market open showed clear concern over energy price impacts ahead of the midterms. THE BOTTOM LINE The oil market is far tighter than current prices suggest because China temporarily drained its stocks and a post-truce supply surge is hitting all at once. Once those barrels are absorbed and China returns as a buyer, the real shortage will become impossible to ignore. Energy stocks are already discounting around 60 dollar oil while the marginal cost of new supply sits near 70 dollars. The rebound in oil prices is closer than the market thinks. HT: YouTube Ninepoint Partners Eric Nuttall #OilShortage #ChinaOil #InventoryCrisis #EnergyMarkets #OilPrices #MarketRebound #GeopoliticalOil
1:43

CHINA FORFEITS 450 MILLION BARRELS IN ONE MONTH: WHY OIL PRICES ARE CRASHING DESPITE RECORD INVENTORY DRAWS Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, revealed the single biggest reason oil prices have collapsed despite record-low inventories. China quietly slashed its oil imports by 4.9 million barrels per day in June alone, forfeiting nearly 450 million barrels and draining its own hidden stocks. This massive move has temporarily masked the true tightness in the physical market and created one of the largest disconnects between fundamentals and price in decades. The result is oil trading in the high 60s while the real balance sheet screams much higher. THE INVENTORY REALITY CHECK ➡️ Global oil inventories are at the lowest levels ever seen for this time of year. ➡️ We have moved from a 177 million barrel surplus before the war to a 141 million barrel deficit relative to the five-year average. ➡️ Total inventory draws since the conflict began reach 430 million barrels, creating a 508 million barrel swing compared to last year. ➡️ US commercial oil inventories now sit at their lowest level since at least 2016. THE PRODUCT SHORTAGE SIGNAL ➡️ Gasoline and distillate stocks show clear shortages in key regions. ➡️ Refinery crack spreads for gasoline and diesel have hit all-time highs, up 182 percent year to date. ➡️ These extreme margins prove strong underlying product demand that contradicts the weak price action. THE STRATEGIC RESERVE FLOOR ➡️ US strategic petroleum reserves have fallen to 325 million barrels. ➡️ That is the lowest level since June of 1983. ➡️ Advisers close to the issue see 300 million barrels as a practical floor the market cannot breach without serious consequences. THE CHINA STOCKPILE DRAIN ➡️ China cut oil imports by a staggering 4.9 million barrels per day in June. ➡️ They have forfeited nearly 450 million barrels of imports in a single month, drawing down invisible domestic stocks. ➡️ Yet every mobility indicator from flights to road traffic shows demand remains very strong. ➡️ This buying behavior is unsustainable and the return of Chinese demand will expose the real tightness. THE TEMPORARY SUPPLY SURGE ➡️ Post-truce tanker traffic out of the Strait has surged to about 10 ships per day. ➡️ Roughly 140 million barrels of previously sanctioned Iranian oil are now accessible to the market. ➡️ Still, 9.4 million barrels per day of regional production remains shut in across the Middle East. ➡️ The market is absorbing a short-term flood that analysts expect will fade within one to two months. THE FINANCIAL MARKET BLIND SPOT ➡️ Speculative net length in oil has collapsed back to pre-war levels. ➡️ The paper market is pricing oil as if the anticipated glut from before the conflict is still here. ➡️ Physical fundamentals point to an implied fair value of 130 to 140 dollars per barrel. THE ADMINISTRATION RESPONSE ➡️ Vice President JD Vance stated the goal is to refill the world's oil economy and restock supplies. "What the president has told us to do is to use this to sort of refill the world's oil economy to refill some stocks and then see where the hand is." ➡️ The timing of the truce announcement right before the market open showed clear concern over energy price impacts ahead of the midterms. THE BOTTOM LINE The oil market is far tighter than current prices suggest because China temporarily drained its stocks and a post-truce supply surge is hitting all at once. Once those barrels are absorbed and China returns as a buyer, the real shortage will become impossible to ignore. Energy stocks are already discounting around 60 dollar oil while the marginal cost of new supply sits near 70 dollars. The rebound in oil prices is closer than the market thinks. HT: YouTube Ninepoint Partners Eric Nuttall #OilShortage #ChinaOil #InventoryCrisis #EnergyMarkets #OilPrices #MarketRebound #GeopoliticalOil

Mark

81,253 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

FRESH PET IS A REAL DOG OF A STOCK My good friend Tom Chanos said at last week’s conference: SHORT FRESH PET STOCK And the market finally started to figure it out. FRPT dropped 10% yesterday on reports that Costco is developing its own fresh dog food under the Kirkland Signature brand to compete directly with Fresh Pet and Blue Buffalo. This is a death blow for a company that was already in serious trouble. For anyone who's been following the Fresh Pet short thesis that was presented at my Best Stock Ideas Summit last week, this is the nail in the coffin. The case was already devastating BEFORE this news: Fresh Pet's Q4 2025 revenue growth came in at 8.6%. Down from 43% in 2022. Down from 22% in 2024. That's an 80% collapse in the growth rate in 3 years. They guided 2026 at 7% to 10%. The lowest in company history. FOUR consecutive quarters of guidance cuts. One year ago they guided 21% to 24%. Now 7% to 10%. Blue Buffalo, backed by General Mills and its $19 billion in revenue, had already launched its "Love Made Fresh" line into Walmart, Target, Kroger, and Costco. At Walmart and Target, Blue Buffalo undercuts Fresh Pet by 30% to 38% on price per pound. That alone was a serious problem for a stock trading at 30 times earnings. Now add Costco private label on top. This would explain something that was flagged at my conference: on a recent Costco store check, the Fresh Pet refrigerator was MISSING. Replaced by a regular Costco refrigerator stocking both Fresh Pet and Blue Buffalo side by side. If Costco launches Kirkland fresh dog food, it will be cheaper than both. That's what Kirkland does. That's the entire playbook. Fresh Pet had the luxury of operating as a monopoly in refrigerated pet food for years. But then First Blue Buffalo entered. And now Costco private label. The monopoly is being dismantled from multiple directions simultaneously. And Fresh Pet's response to Blue Buffalo? They CUT their marketing budget by $13 million last quarter. Right as 2 massive competitors enter the market. The earnings beat everyone celebrated came ENTIRELY from expense cuts, not business strength. Meanwhile, input costs are surging: Beef prices rose 15% in 2025. The USDA forecasts another 5.5% increase in 2026. Cattle inventories at a 75 year low. Fresh Pet can't raise prices because the competition is undercutting them. Sequential revenue went negative for the first time in 17 quarters. Feeding your dog isn't cyclical. So if sequential revenue goes negative, they're LOSING existing customers - before Costco even enters the picture. Over the last five years, Fresh Pet is down 60%. And today's 10% drop isn't the end. It's the beginning. Incredible call from Tom at the conference last week!
1:57

FRESH PET IS A REAL DOG OF A STOCK My good friend Tom Chanos said at last week’s conference: SHORT FRESH PET STOCK And the market finally started to figure it out. FRPT dropped 10% yesterday on reports that Costco is developing its own fresh dog food under the Kirkland Signature brand to compete directly with Fresh Pet and Blue Buffalo. This is a death blow for a company that was already in serious trouble. For anyone who's been following the Fresh Pet short thesis that was presented at my Best Stock Ideas Summit last week, this is the nail in the coffin. The case was already devastating BEFORE this news: Fresh Pet's Q4 2025 revenue growth came in at 8.6%. Down from 43% in 2022. Down from 22% in 2024. That's an 80% collapse in the growth rate in 3 years. They guided 2026 at 7% to 10%. The lowest in company history. FOUR consecutive quarters of guidance cuts. One year ago they guided 21% to 24%. Now 7% to 10%. Blue Buffalo, backed by General Mills and its $19 billion in revenue, had already launched its "Love Made Fresh" line into Walmart, Target, Kroger, and Costco. At Walmart and Target, Blue Buffalo undercuts Fresh Pet by 30% to 38% on price per pound. That alone was a serious problem for a stock trading at 30 times earnings. Now add Costco private label on top. This would explain something that was flagged at my conference: on a recent Costco store check, the Fresh Pet refrigerator was MISSING. Replaced by a regular Costco refrigerator stocking both Fresh Pet and Blue Buffalo side by side. If Costco launches Kirkland fresh dog food, it will be cheaper than both. That's what Kirkland does. That's the entire playbook. Fresh Pet had the luxury of operating as a monopoly in refrigerated pet food for years. But then First Blue Buffalo entered. And now Costco private label. The monopoly is being dismantled from multiple directions simultaneously. And Fresh Pet's response to Blue Buffalo? They CUT their marketing budget by $13 million last quarter. Right as 2 massive competitors enter the market. The earnings beat everyone celebrated came ENTIRELY from expense cuts, not business strength. Meanwhile, input costs are surging: Beef prices rose 15% in 2025. The USDA forecasts another 5.5% increase in 2026. Cattle inventories at a 75 year low. Fresh Pet can't raise prices because the competition is undercutting them. Sequential revenue went negative for the first time in 17 quarters. Feeding your dog isn't cyclical. So if sequential revenue goes negative, they're LOSING existing customers - before Costco even enters the picture. Over the last five years, Fresh Pet is down 60%. And today's 10% drop isn't the end. It's the beginning. Incredible call from Tom at the conference last week!

George Noble

40,596 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

Last week, for the first time in the Romanian Parliament, the words "I am Taiwanese" were spoken, both in Hokkien and Mandarin, the most widely spoken languages in that country. They were spoken to assert a simple and firm truth: We cannot afford another nation martyred by a dictatorial regime, following the fate of Ukraine. We cannot allow Taiwan to become a target of political expansionist ambitions, economic and societal control, of a regime that does not respect human rights domestically and the rules of good neighborliness and collaboration internationally. My statement is a continuation of the efforts I make as co-chair of the Interparliamentary Alliance on China (Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC)) and member of the Formosa Club (The Formosa Club) to ensure that the Indo-Pacific region is not monopolized by an undemocratic player like the People's Republic of China, a player that has proven to prioritize the repressive interests of its party elite over the legitimate interests and aspirations, rights of its own citizens, national and religious minorities, and neighboring nations. This was abundantly proven this weekend when 10 Chinese warplanes crossed the median line separating the territorial waters of the People's Republic of China from those of Taiwan, in a blatant act of provocation. Below is the text of my statement from the Romanian Parliament on Wednesday, June 7, 2023: -------------------------- Dear colleagues, "Wǒ shì táiwān rén!" "Góa sī Tâi-oân lâng!" These two phrases, spoken today for the first time in the Romanian Parliament, mean "I am Taiwanese!", in Mandarin and Hokkien, two of the languages spoken in Taiwan. Through these words, the citizens of this country affirm their identity, an identity they have the right to have and to express freely. Identity is the key to a free and diverse society, where each individual has the right to express their culture, values, and aspirations. In Taiwan, this identity is flourishing, fueled by a rich history and a people dedicated to the values of democracy, freedom, and respect for human rights. Let's not forget that, like any free people, the Taiwanese identity is not defined by political conflicts or demarcation lines on the map, but by the people who call this island home. People who, despite pressures and challenges, continue to fight for democracy, civil rights, and freedom. And that's why, two weeks ago, I had the distinct honor of representing Romania at the inaugural meeting of the Formosa Club, a gathering of over 30 parliamentarians and MEPs who support Taiwan. As a member of the Romania-Taiwan friendship group, I witnessed a historic meeting that reaffirmed the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, an area of crucial importance for global security and prosperity. In this forum, we conveyed a clear and powerful message: any existing disputes between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait must be addressed through peaceful means and the status quo should not be unilaterally changed, against the will of the Taiwanese people. Any aggressive and reckless behavior not only harms reconciliation efforts but also unnecessarily escalates tensions in the region, an action we firmly oppose. Taiwan is an indispensable member of the international community, with much to offer in a range of fields. Taiwan's continued exclusion from international organizations is not in line with global interests. We consistently support Taiwan's meaningful involvement in meetings, mechanisms, and activities of multilateral institutions, including but not limited to the World Health Organization, the International Civil Aviation Organization, the International Criminal Police Organization, and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Taiwan is a key partner and a democratic ally in the Indo-Pacific region. Every democracy, including Taiwan, has the right to develop comprehensive relationships with other countries to advance the common interests of their peoples and to promote the values of freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. We underline the urgent need to strengthen our cooperation with Taiwan, such as through the establishment of trade, investment, and sectoral agreements, to enhance the resilience of our supply chains and our democracies. We reiterate our intention to continue standing with Taiwan and to do everything in our power to ensure its democracy, while strengthening the close ties between Taiwan, the EU, other European democracies, and transatlantic countries, to defend our common values and the global liberal democratic order. I invite you to join this cause, to support Taiwan's meaningful participation in international institutions, and to recognize its value as a member of the international community. It is time to strengthen our cooperation with Taiwan, to establish trade, investment, and sectoral agreements, to enhance the resilience of our supply chains and our democracies. The right to development, to promote the values of freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law is not a privilege, but a fundamental right. These are not only Taiwan's values, but also our values, Romania's values, Europe's values. In conclusion, I want to assure you that I will continue to stand with Taiwan and do everything possible to ensure its democracy, while strengthening the closer ties between Taiwan, Romania, the EU, other European democracies, and transatlantic countries. Together, we can defend our common values and the global liberal democratic order. Thank you. Cătălin Teniță - MP representing Bucharest, member of the Partidul REPER
3:13

Last week, for the first time in the Romanian Parliament, the words "I am Taiwanese" were spoken, both in Hokkien and Mandarin, the most widely spoken languages in that country. They were spoken to assert a simple and firm truth: We cannot afford another nation martyred by a dictatorial regime, following the fate of Ukraine. We cannot allow Taiwan to become a target of political expansionist ambitions, economic and societal control, of a regime that does not respect human rights domestically and the rules of good neighborliness and collaboration internationally. My statement is a continuation of the efforts I make as co-chair of the Interparliamentary Alliance on China (Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC)) and member of the Formosa Club (The Formosa Club) to ensure that the Indo-Pacific region is not monopolized by an undemocratic player like the People's Republic of China, a player that has proven to prioritize the repressive interests of its party elite over the legitimate interests and aspirations, rights of its own citizens, national and religious minorities, and neighboring nations. This was abundantly proven this weekend when 10 Chinese warplanes crossed the median line separating the territorial waters of the People's Republic of China from those of Taiwan, in a blatant act of provocation. Below is the text of my statement from the Romanian Parliament on Wednesday, June 7, 2023: -------------------------- Dear colleagues, "Wǒ shì táiwān rén!" "Góa sī Tâi-oân lâng!" These two phrases, spoken today for the first time in the Romanian Parliament, mean "I am Taiwanese!", in Mandarin and Hokkien, two of the languages spoken in Taiwan. Through these words, the citizens of this country affirm their identity, an identity they have the right to have and to express freely. Identity is the key to a free and diverse society, where each individual has the right to express their culture, values, and aspirations. In Taiwan, this identity is flourishing, fueled by a rich history and a people dedicated to the values of democracy, freedom, and respect for human rights. Let's not forget that, like any free people, the Taiwanese identity is not defined by political conflicts or demarcation lines on the map, but by the people who call this island home. People who, despite pressures and challenges, continue to fight for democracy, civil rights, and freedom. And that's why, two weeks ago, I had the distinct honor of representing Romania at the inaugural meeting of the Formosa Club, a gathering of over 30 parliamentarians and MEPs who support Taiwan. As a member of the Romania-Taiwan friendship group, I witnessed a historic meeting that reaffirmed the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, an area of crucial importance for global security and prosperity. In this forum, we conveyed a clear and powerful message: any existing disputes between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait must be addressed through peaceful means and the status quo should not be unilaterally changed, against the will of the Taiwanese people. Any aggressive and reckless behavior not only harms reconciliation efforts but also unnecessarily escalates tensions in the region, an action we firmly oppose. Taiwan is an indispensable member of the international community, with much to offer in a range of fields. Taiwan's continued exclusion from international organizations is not in line with global interests. We consistently support Taiwan's meaningful involvement in meetings, mechanisms, and activities of multilateral institutions, including but not limited to the World Health Organization, the International Civil Aviation Organization, the International Criminal Police Organization, and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Taiwan is a key partner and a democratic ally in the Indo-Pacific region. Every democracy, including Taiwan, has the right to develop comprehensive relationships with other countries to advance the common interests of their peoples and to promote the values of freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. We underline the urgent need to strengthen our cooperation with Taiwan, such as through the establishment of trade, investment, and sectoral agreements, to enhance the resilience of our supply chains and our democracies. We reiterate our intention to continue standing with Taiwan and to do everything in our power to ensure its democracy, while strengthening the close ties between Taiwan, the EU, other European democracies, and transatlantic countries, to defend our common values and the global liberal democratic order. I invite you to join this cause, to support Taiwan's meaningful participation in international institutions, and to recognize its value as a member of the international community. It is time to strengthen our cooperation with Taiwan, to establish trade, investment, and sectoral agreements, to enhance the resilience of our supply chains and our democracies. The right to development, to promote the values of freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law is not a privilege, but a fundamental right. These are not only Taiwan's values, but also our values, Romania's values, Europe's values. In conclusion, I want to assure you that I will continue to stand with Taiwan and do everything possible to ensure its democracy, while strengthening the closer ties between Taiwan, Romania, the EU, other European democracies, and transatlantic countries. Together, we can defend our common values and the global liberal democratic order. Thank you. Cătălin Teniță - MP representing Bucharest, member of the Partidul REPER

Catalin Tenita🇷🇴

38,662 просмотров • 3 лет назад

🚩 Chinese Communist Party's "Birth Promotion Office" Officials Now Demanding Unmarried Man to Father Five Children 🚩 Perhaps you will find this video unbelievable: Officials from the Chinese Communist Party's "Birth Promotion Office" (or Population Growth Office, 催生办) are now not only demanding that an unmarried 33-year-old man must father five children, but they have also brought a woman to help him do so! This man only needs to sign a contract with this woman, who will help him have five children, but he must be responsible for raising these five children. The official from the "Birth Promotion Office" also said that he previously worked in the "Family Planning Office" (计划生育办公室), but now the "Family Planning Office" has been changed to the "Birth Promotion Office." Do not disbelieve that such things could happen in China. I myself have experienced something of the same nature. In the 90s, when I had just moved into a new home in Beijing's Chongwen District, workers from the neighborhood committee quickly came to my door to have me register for "family planning." One of the items was, "Do you have an IUD inserted? If not, what method do you use for contraception?" I felt extremely insulted at the time. On what grounds does a CCP official have the right to interfere in someone's bedroom, and why must you tell them, fill it in on a form, and let unrelated people know about such private matters? This video was translated by my friend Lei Lei's Real Talk. She recently used the population numbers of China and India from 1990, along with their annual birth rates, to calculate the current population of both countries with the help of AI. The results are astonishing, showing that China's official population is 37%-50% higher than the calculated results. Meanwhile, the discrepancy for India is only 4%. I believe her method is sound, and anyone can verify it using the same approach. So, it seems that China's current population might only be between 700 million to 800 million, not 1.4 billion. This might explain why officials from the "Birth Promotion Office" are so desperate. The link to Lei's video on calculating population with AI is in the comments section; everyone can watch it for themselves or verify the calculations. I think her findings are very, very significant
3:22

🚩 Chinese Communist Party's "Birth Promotion Office" Officials Now Demanding Unmarried Man to Father Five Children 🚩 Perhaps you will find this video unbelievable: Officials from the Chinese Communist Party's "Birth Promotion Office" (or Population Growth Office, 催生办) are now not only demanding that an unmarried 33-year-old man must father five children, but they have also brought a woman to help him do so! This man only needs to sign a contract with this woman, who will help him have five children, but he must be responsible for raising these five children. The official from the "Birth Promotion Office" also said that he previously worked in the "Family Planning Office" (计划生育办公室), but now the "Family Planning Office" has been changed to the "Birth Promotion Office." Do not disbelieve that such things could happen in China. I myself have experienced something of the same nature. In the 90s, when I had just moved into a new home in Beijing's Chongwen District, workers from the neighborhood committee quickly came to my door to have me register for "family planning." One of the items was, "Do you have an IUD inserted? If not, what method do you use for contraception?" I felt extremely insulted at the time. On what grounds does a CCP official have the right to interfere in someone's bedroom, and why must you tell them, fill it in on a form, and let unrelated people know about such private matters? This video was translated by my friend Lei Lei's Real Talk. She recently used the population numbers of China and India from 1990, along with their annual birth rates, to calculate the current population of both countries with the help of AI. The results are astonishing, showing that China's official population is 37%-50% higher than the calculated results. Meanwhile, the discrepancy for India is only 4%. I believe her method is sound, and anyone can verify it using the same approach. So, it seems that China's current population might only be between 700 million to 800 million, not 1.4 billion. This might explain why officials from the "Birth Promotion Office" are so desperate. The link to Lei's video on calculating population with AI is in the comments section; everyone can watch it for themselves or verify the calculations. I think her findings are very, very significant

Inconvenient Truths — Jennifer Zeng Reports

18,543 просмотров • 1 год назад

The idea that career politicians are completely disconnected from the financial struggles of average Americans is a valid critique, but the standard talking point of simply raising the minimum wage fundamentally misses the mark. Forcing a higher minimum wage doesn’t solve the underlying economic crisis; it merely triggers an immediate inflation spiral where the cost of daily goods and services jumps to absorb the new labor costs, ultimately leaving working-class citizens in a worse position than where they started. ​The "minimum wage" debate is completely missing the point. Everyone is fighting over raising wages by a few bucks, but that’s like putting a band-aid on a broken leg. The real crisis isn’t just what people are getting paid—it’s the fact that the buying power of the U.S. dollar has been utterly destroyed, while the cost of basic goods and housing has gone into orbit. ​Let’s look at the actual math using the ultimate benchmark of financial stability: buying a home. ​In 1970, the federal minimum wage was $1.45 an hour, and the median home price was around $23,400. A single minimum-wage worker brought in about $3,016 a year, meaning an average house cost roughly 7.7x their annual salary. It wasn’t effortless, but with a dual income or some careful budgeting, owning a home on basic wages was mathematically possible. ​Today, standard inflation calculators will tell you that $1.45 in 1970 equals about $11.64. But look at the actual cost of assets. The median home price has exploded to roughly $420,000. ​If you want to walk into a bank today, factor in current interest rates, property taxes, homeowners insurance, and strict debt-to-income limits, you don't need $11 an hour to qualify. You don't even need $25 an hour. When factoring in standard modern debts like student loans or car payments alongside the inflated cost of everyday necessities, a single earner needs closer to $70 to $80 AN HOUR ($145k–$165k/year) just to secure the exact same purchasing power and financial security a basic worker had 56 years ago. ​This structural gap hits on a massive point that raw home-price-to-income ratios completely miss: we don't buy sticker prices, we buy monthly payments. Comparing raw prices assumes you are paying in cash, but modern buyers are forced to absorb the real-world cost of borrowing and qualifying. ​Treating the symptom (the wage) without fixing the disease (the collapse of our currency's purchasing power and the artificial inflation of assets) is a losing game. If we just hike wages without fixing the underlying economy, the cost of goods just keeps chasing the new printing press. We don't just need higher numbers on our paychecks; we need a dollar that actually means something again.
4:25

The idea that career politicians are completely disconnected from the financial struggles of average Americans is a valid critique, but the standard talking point of simply raising the minimum wage fundamentally misses the mark. Forcing a higher minimum wage doesn’t solve the underlying economic crisis; it merely triggers an immediate inflation spiral where the cost of daily goods and services jumps to absorb the new labor costs, ultimately leaving working-class citizens in a worse position than where they started. ​The "minimum wage" debate is completely missing the point. Everyone is fighting over raising wages by a few bucks, but that’s like putting a band-aid on a broken leg. The real crisis isn’t just what people are getting paid—it’s the fact that the buying power of the U.S. dollar has been utterly destroyed, while the cost of basic goods and housing has gone into orbit. ​Let’s look at the actual math using the ultimate benchmark of financial stability: buying a home. ​In 1970, the federal minimum wage was $1.45 an hour, and the median home price was around $23,400. A single minimum-wage worker brought in about $3,016 a year, meaning an average house cost roughly 7.7x their annual salary. It wasn’t effortless, but with a dual income or some careful budgeting, owning a home on basic wages was mathematically possible. ​Today, standard inflation calculators will tell you that $1.45 in 1970 equals about $11.64. But look at the actual cost of assets. The median home price has exploded to roughly $420,000. ​If you want to walk into a bank today, factor in current interest rates, property taxes, homeowners insurance, and strict debt-to-income limits, you don't need $11 an hour to qualify. You don't even need $25 an hour. When factoring in standard modern debts like student loans or car payments alongside the inflated cost of everyday necessities, a single earner needs closer to $70 to $80 AN HOUR ($145k–$165k/year) just to secure the exact same purchasing power and financial security a basic worker had 56 years ago. ​This structural gap hits on a massive point that raw home-price-to-income ratios completely miss: we don't buy sticker prices, we buy monthly payments. Comparing raw prices assumes you are paying in cash, but modern buyers are forced to absorb the real-world cost of borrowing and qualifying. ​Treating the symptom (the wage) without fixing the disease (the collapse of our currency's purchasing power and the artificial inflation of assets) is a losing game. If we just hike wages without fixing the underlying economy, the cost of goods just keeps chasing the new printing press. We don't just need higher numbers on our paychecks; we need a dollar that actually means something again.

✨️Serenitee♡Sam✨️

16,078 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

The Oil Shock Is Hitting A Supply Chain Already Rewired Under Stress The real danger here is hat the global economy is entering the worst energy shock of our lifetimes after already spending the last year rewiring trade under tariff pressure, China decoupling, front loaded inventories, and longer supply routes. That matters because fragility rarely comes from one shock. It comes when one shock lands on top of a system that already had its buffers removed. The China Trade Collapse The China trade collapse is real. Census data shows U.S. goods imports from China fell from $438.7 billion in 2024 to $308.4 billion in 2025, a decline of almost 30%. U.S. exports to China fell from $143.2 billion to $106.3 billion, and the bilateral goods deficit dropped to $202.1 billion, the lowest level in years. That is not a blip. That is structural decoupling. But the key nuance is that global trade did not collapse with it. UNCTAD says global trade still grew about 7.5% in 2025 to a record $35 trillion, while BEA data shows total U.S. imports rose 4.8% and the overall trade deficit barely moved, falling only 0.2% to $901.5 billion. The Rerouting Illusion That means the world did not stop trading. It rerouted. China was partly replaced by Mexico, Vietnam, India, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, and other nodes. On paper, that looks like resilience. In reality, it also means more complexity, more shipping dependence, more customs friction, more insurance risk, more working capital tied up in inventory, and more fuel burned per unit of goods moved. The supply chain survived the tariff shock by becoming less efficient. Now Place An Oil Shock On Top Of That The IEA says global observed oil inventories fell by 85 million barrels in March, while stocks outside the Middle East Gulf fell by 205 million barrels as Hormuz flows were choked off. It also said oil export losses now exceed 13 million barrels per day, with cumulative supply losses of more than 360 million barrels in March and 440 million projected for April. The peak daily supply loss is already above 12 million barrels per day, larger than the 1973 Arab oil embargo at roughly 4.5 million barrels per day and the 1978 to 1979 Iranian Revolution at roughly 5.6 million. The Inventory Signal The chart is showing the physical cushion disappearing. Once inventories fall fast enough, price stops being the only rationing mechanism. The system starts rationing through behavior, policy, and scarcity. Airlines cut routes. Truckers pass through diesel costs. Food prices rise. Fertilizer gets tighter. Refineries prioritize. Governments release reserves. Then come pressure campaigns, fuel allocation, export controls, industrial curtailments, remote work mandates, speed limits, and priority access for military, emergency services, farming, and food logistics. What An Energy Lockdown Would Actually Look Like That is what an energy lockdown would look like. Not necessarily COVID style house arrest, but a forced reduction in mobility because the fuel system cannot support normal economic life at normal prices. The 1970s gave us gas lines, odd even rationing, Sunday station closures, and a 55 mph speed limit. Today’s version would be more technocratic, more targeted, and probably sold as temporary conservation. But the logic is the same. When energy is scarce, freedom of movement becomes a policy variable. My Take The oil shock is bad enough by itself. The real danger is that it is hitting a trade system already made more fragile by tariffs and China decoupling. Trade did not collapse in 2025. It rerouted. But rerouted trade depends on cheap, available fuel. If Hormuz stays disrupted, this becomes an inflation, logistics, food, credit, and political stability shock. The market is focused on the price of oil, but the real warning is the inventory draw. Once the spare barrels are gone, energy stops being managed by markets alone and starts being managed by allocation.
2:02

The Oil Shock Is Hitting A Supply Chain Already Rewired Under Stress The real danger here is hat the global economy is entering the worst energy shock of our lifetimes after already spending the last year rewiring trade under tariff pressure, China decoupling, front loaded inventories, and longer supply routes. That matters because fragility rarely comes from one shock. It comes when one shock lands on top of a system that already had its buffers removed. The China Trade Collapse The China trade collapse is real. Census data shows U.S. goods imports from China fell from $438.7 billion in 2024 to $308.4 billion in 2025, a decline of almost 30%. U.S. exports to China fell from $143.2 billion to $106.3 billion, and the bilateral goods deficit dropped to $202.1 billion, the lowest level in years. That is not a blip. That is structural decoupling. But the key nuance is that global trade did not collapse with it. UNCTAD says global trade still grew about 7.5% in 2025 to a record $35 trillion, while BEA data shows total U.S. imports rose 4.8% and the overall trade deficit barely moved, falling only 0.2% to $901.5 billion. The Rerouting Illusion That means the world did not stop trading. It rerouted. China was partly replaced by Mexico, Vietnam, India, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, and other nodes. On paper, that looks like resilience. In reality, it also means more complexity, more shipping dependence, more customs friction, more insurance risk, more working capital tied up in inventory, and more fuel burned per unit of goods moved. The supply chain survived the tariff shock by becoming less efficient. Now Place An Oil Shock On Top Of That The IEA says global observed oil inventories fell by 85 million barrels in March, while stocks outside the Middle East Gulf fell by 205 million barrels as Hormuz flows were choked off. It also said oil export losses now exceed 13 million barrels per day, with cumulative supply losses of more than 360 million barrels in March and 440 million projected for April. The peak daily supply loss is already above 12 million barrels per day, larger than the 1973 Arab oil embargo at roughly 4.5 million barrels per day and the 1978 to 1979 Iranian Revolution at roughly 5.6 million. The Inventory Signal The chart is showing the physical cushion disappearing. Once inventories fall fast enough, price stops being the only rationing mechanism. The system starts rationing through behavior, policy, and scarcity. Airlines cut routes. Truckers pass through diesel costs. Food prices rise. Fertilizer gets tighter. Refineries prioritize. Governments release reserves. Then come pressure campaigns, fuel allocation, export controls, industrial curtailments, remote work mandates, speed limits, and priority access for military, emergency services, farming, and food logistics. What An Energy Lockdown Would Actually Look Like That is what an energy lockdown would look like. Not necessarily COVID style house arrest, but a forced reduction in mobility because the fuel system cannot support normal economic life at normal prices. The 1970s gave us gas lines, odd even rationing, Sunday station closures, and a 55 mph speed limit. Today’s version would be more technocratic, more targeted, and probably sold as temporary conservation. But the logic is the same. When energy is scarce, freedom of movement becomes a policy variable. My Take The oil shock is bad enough by itself. The real danger is that it is hitting a trade system already made more fragile by tariffs and China decoupling. Trade did not collapse in 2025. It rerouted. But rerouted trade depends on cheap, available fuel. If Hormuz stays disrupted, this becomes an inflation, logistics, food, credit, and political stability shock. The market is focused on the price of oil, but the real warning is the inventory draw. Once the spare barrels are gone, energy stops being managed by markets alone and starts being managed by allocation.

EndGame Macro

41,818 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

SIGNAL VS NOISE: WHY OIL KEEPS FALLING ON REAL ESCALATION Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, just delivered a blunt weekly update that cuts through the daily chaos. In a market drowning in headlines, he argues the real danger is not the noise—it is the structural signal almost nobody is pricing. What he lays out should make every energy investor pause. THE CORE THESIS ➡️ “Despite the volatility that we see in oil many of the past few days defying logic… we’re focusing on the signals.” ➡️ Iran has decided control of the Strait of Hormuz gives them more tactical leverage than actually possessing a nuclear bomb. ➡️ Everything coming out of the IRGC supports that belief: they are not going to give that control up. ➡️ The Trump administration underestimated how complicated this incursion would be, expecting a short-term outcome that has clearly not materialized. THE NOISE TRAP ➡️ Trump claims Iran is begging for a deal while a missile hits a U.S. Air Force base in Jordan. ➡️ Stories of oil abundance and an imminent glut ignore the SPR sitting at 307 million barrels. ➡️ Sources intimately involved in the largest prior SPR release believe meaningful drawdowns below 300 million risk integrity issues in the salt caverns. ➡️ Global strategic stocks now sit at the lowest levels since 1983–84. THE PHYSICAL REALITY ➡️ Middle East production remains down at least 6.5 million barrels per day. ➡️ Volumes exiting the Strait have collapsed from roughly 15 million to about 3.5 million barrels per day. ➡️ Last night only two vessels were tracked heading inbound—the critical number needed to empty onshore storage and restore full output. ➡️ China imports remain down 3.5 million barrels per day year-over-year as they quietly deplete finite refined stocks. THE ONLY TWO ENDGAMES ➡️ Either a major U.S. military escalation to try to seize the Strait—possible but very dangerous, very long, and full of ramifications—or a TACO that lets Trump claim some victory while leaving control in IRGC hands. ➡️ Gulf states are unlikely to accept permanent tolls or ransoms from the same actors attacking them. ➡️ Houthis are already studying the same model for the Red Sea. THE BOTTOM LINE Nuttall’s message is clear: day-to-day price action is noise. The structural signals point to a tighter, more volatile energy market once China returns and SPRs hit their practical floor. Complacency is the real risk right now. This market is far more dangerous than the daily tape admits. #OilMarkets #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyInvesting #SPRCrisis #IranWar #SignalVsNoise #Ninepoint HT: Eric Nuttall
1:30

SIGNAL VS NOISE: WHY OIL KEEPS FALLING ON REAL ESCALATION Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, just delivered a blunt weekly update that cuts through the daily chaos. In a market drowning in headlines, he argues the real danger is not the noise—it is the structural signal almost nobody is pricing. What he lays out should make every energy investor pause. THE CORE THESIS ➡️ “Despite the volatility that we see in oil many of the past few days defying logic… we’re focusing on the signals.” ➡️ Iran has decided control of the Strait of Hormuz gives them more tactical leverage than actually possessing a nuclear bomb. ➡️ Everything coming out of the IRGC supports that belief: they are not going to give that control up. ➡️ The Trump administration underestimated how complicated this incursion would be, expecting a short-term outcome that has clearly not materialized. THE NOISE TRAP ➡️ Trump claims Iran is begging for a deal while a missile hits a U.S. Air Force base in Jordan. ➡️ Stories of oil abundance and an imminent glut ignore the SPR sitting at 307 million barrels. ➡️ Sources intimately involved in the largest prior SPR release believe meaningful drawdowns below 300 million risk integrity issues in the salt caverns. ➡️ Global strategic stocks now sit at the lowest levels since 1983–84. THE PHYSICAL REALITY ➡️ Middle East production remains down at least 6.5 million barrels per day. ➡️ Volumes exiting the Strait have collapsed from roughly 15 million to about 3.5 million barrels per day. ➡️ Last night only two vessels were tracked heading inbound—the critical number needed to empty onshore storage and restore full output. ➡️ China imports remain down 3.5 million barrels per day year-over-year as they quietly deplete finite refined stocks. THE ONLY TWO ENDGAMES ➡️ Either a major U.S. military escalation to try to seize the Strait—possible but very dangerous, very long, and full of ramifications—or a TACO that lets Trump claim some victory while leaving control in IRGC hands. ➡️ Gulf states are unlikely to accept permanent tolls or ransoms from the same actors attacking them. ➡️ Houthis are already studying the same model for the Red Sea. THE BOTTOM LINE Nuttall’s message is clear: day-to-day price action is noise. The structural signals point to a tighter, more volatile energy market once China returns and SPRs hit their practical floor. Complacency is the real risk right now. This market is far more dangerous than the daily tape admits. #OilMarkets #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyInvesting #SPRCrisis #IranWar #SignalVsNoise #Ninepoint HT: Eric Nuttall

Mark

15,502 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Jeff Currie of Carlyle went on live television and said the oil market is completely mispriced. He said futures price crude at around $100 a barrel, but physical oil delivered to Asian refiners is actually costing between $130 and $170. At one point this month, Oman crude, the benchmark for oil on the free side of the Strait spiked all the way to $173 a barrel. The paper market and the real world have completely split from each other and Currie was explicit about why that split is dangerous. He said jet fuel spiked to $230 a barrel in Singapore last week, then the same spike hit Rotterdam at $220 a barrel, then Thailand, then the Philippines, then New Zealand, then Australia. He called it molecular contagion, a physical shortage virus spreading across global supply hubs one by one. To understand why that phrase matters, consider what the Strait of Hormuz actually is. Before the war, roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day moved through that single 100-mile waterway. The IEA now says flows have dropped from 20 million barrels per day to what they described as a trickle and Barclays estimates the effective supply loss at 13 to 14 million barrels per day in a prolonged closure scenario. Currie said there are no more spare barrels in the system. The price spread between Singapore and Rotterdam which normally tells traders where surplus oil is sitting has completely disappeared and when that spread goes to zero, there is no buffer left anywhere on earth. He said this supply shock is nearly equal in size to the COVID demand crash, and he reminded viewers what COVID did to global supply chains. COVID wiped out approximately 20 million barrels per day of demand and fractured supply chains for two full years. This war has now wiped out a comparable volume of supply and supply chains cannot work from home. The data behind his warning is already visible. Middle Eastern crude exports to Asia have collapsed from roughly 19 million barrels per day in February to under 7 million barrels per day in March. Dubai crude surged past $166 a barrel on March 19, hitting an all-time record and Oman crude crossed $150 for the first time in history just days before. Meanwhile, Chevron's CEO and Shell's CEO both stood up at the CERAWeek conference in Houston and confirmed the same thing Currie said, physical disruptions are now spreading from South Asia into Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and are beginning to reach Europe. Currie said the reason WTI and Brent paper prices stayed suppressed is that Russian Urals crude rallied 65 to 70 dollars a barrel after sanctions were lifted. That closed the gap between cheap Russian oil and expensive Western benchmarks. Once that gap closed, the last pressure valve in the global system shut off and now the entire complex has nowhere to hide.
3:08

Jeff Currie of Carlyle went on live television and said the oil market is completely mispriced. He said futures price crude at around $100 a barrel, but physical oil delivered to Asian refiners is actually costing between $130 and $170. At one point this month, Oman crude, the benchmark for oil on the free side of the Strait spiked all the way to $173 a barrel. The paper market and the real world have completely split from each other and Currie was explicit about why that split is dangerous. He said jet fuel spiked to $230 a barrel in Singapore last week, then the same spike hit Rotterdam at $220 a barrel, then Thailand, then the Philippines, then New Zealand, then Australia. He called it molecular contagion, a physical shortage virus spreading across global supply hubs one by one. To understand why that phrase matters, consider what the Strait of Hormuz actually is. Before the war, roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day moved through that single 100-mile waterway. The IEA now says flows have dropped from 20 million barrels per day to what they described as a trickle and Barclays estimates the effective supply loss at 13 to 14 million barrels per day in a prolonged closure scenario. Currie said there are no more spare barrels in the system. The price spread between Singapore and Rotterdam which normally tells traders where surplus oil is sitting has completely disappeared and when that spread goes to zero, there is no buffer left anywhere on earth. He said this supply shock is nearly equal in size to the COVID demand crash, and he reminded viewers what COVID did to global supply chains. COVID wiped out approximately 20 million barrels per day of demand and fractured supply chains for two full years. This war has now wiped out a comparable volume of supply and supply chains cannot work from home. The data behind his warning is already visible. Middle Eastern crude exports to Asia have collapsed from roughly 19 million barrels per day in February to under 7 million barrels per day in March. Dubai crude surged past $166 a barrel on March 19, hitting an all-time record and Oman crude crossed $150 for the first time in history just days before. Meanwhile, Chevron's CEO and Shell's CEO both stood up at the CERAWeek conference in Houston and confirmed the same thing Currie said, physical disruptions are now spreading from South Asia into Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and are beginning to reach Europe. Currie said the reason WTI and Brent paper prices stayed suppressed is that Russian Urals crude rallied 65 to 70 dollars a barrel after sanctions were lifted. That closed the gap between cheap Russian oil and expensive Western benchmarks. Once that gap closed, the last pressure valve in the global system shut off and now the entire complex has nowhere to hide.

StockMarket.News

360,518 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

I asked ClawdBot to find every wallet on Polymarket younger than 60 days with profit above 1 million dollars. It came back with exactly 1 result. One wallet out of hundreds of thousands. I opened the profile and spent the next two hours trying to understand what I was looking at. I expected maybe 5 or 10 results. Tens of thousands of active wallets. Somebody must qualify. ClawdBot went quiet for a couple minutes. Result: 1. I reread the filters three times. Changed nothing. Ran it again. Same result: 1. Most wallets on Polymarket are in the red. The ones in profit usually sit at a few hundred or a few thousand dollars. Wallets above $100K in total profit are already rare. Above a million in under 60 days? This one. That is it. $1,613,408. In 57 days. Here is the profile if you want to check the numbers yourself: I started breaking it down week by week. $345,000 last week. Not his best week. Just a regular week. That is roughly $49,000 per day. Every day. Weekends included. $49,000 a day is $18 million annualized. That is a small hedge fund. I asked ClawdBot how many wallets on Polymarket have ever crossed a million in total profit. The answer was under 20. Most of them have been active for six months or longer. Some over a year. This one did it in 57 days. The average profitable wallet on Polymarket makes a few thousand over its entire lifetime. This one makes $345,000 in a week. At some point you stop calling this trading and start calling it something else. I went into the trade history. ClawdBot laid it all out on a timeline. He is not trading 50 markets at once. He picks a specific type and works only those. Few entries, but each one is not small. And here is the part I cannot figure out. Almost every entry happens between 2 and 4 AM EST. Not once or twice. Consistently. As if whatever signal he uses fires in the middle of the night when nobody is watching. I stared at the screen for two hours trying to see the logic. I think I am starting to see a pattern. But that is a separate breakdown. One query. One result. $1,613,408. After that I changed the parameters. Profit above $500K, age under 90 days. ClawdBot came back with 3 wallets. Breaking those down this week.
0:35

I asked ClawdBot to find every wallet on Polymarket younger than 60 days with profit above 1 million dollars. It came back with exactly 1 result. One wallet out of hundreds of thousands. I opened the profile and spent the next two hours trying to understand what I was looking at. I expected maybe 5 or 10 results. Tens of thousands of active wallets. Somebody must qualify. ClawdBot went quiet for a couple minutes. Result: 1. I reread the filters three times. Changed nothing. Ran it again. Same result: 1. Most wallets on Polymarket are in the red. The ones in profit usually sit at a few hundred or a few thousand dollars. Wallets above $100K in total profit are already rare. Above a million in under 60 days? This one. That is it. $1,613,408. In 57 days. Here is the profile if you want to check the numbers yourself: I started breaking it down week by week. $345,000 last week. Not his best week. Just a regular week. That is roughly $49,000 per day. Every day. Weekends included. $49,000 a day is $18 million annualized. That is a small hedge fund. I asked ClawdBot how many wallets on Polymarket have ever crossed a million in total profit. The answer was under 20. Most of them have been active for six months or longer. Some over a year. This one did it in 57 days. The average profitable wallet on Polymarket makes a few thousand over its entire lifetime. This one makes $345,000 in a week. At some point you stop calling this trading and start calling it something else. I went into the trade history. ClawdBot laid it all out on a timeline. He is not trading 50 markets at once. He picks a specific type and works only those. Few entries, but each one is not small. And here is the part I cannot figure out. Almost every entry happens between 2 and 4 AM EST. Not once or twice. Consistently. As if whatever signal he uses fires in the middle of the night when nobody is watching. I stared at the screen for two hours trying to see the logic. I think I am starting to see a pattern. But that is a separate breakdown. One query. One result. $1,613,408. After that I changed the parameters. Profit above $500K, age under 90 days. ClawdBot came back with 3 wallets. Breaking those down this week.

Blaze

95,926 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

$FLNC Batteries, Energy Storage 3.8B Market cap My take: A spicy shorter-term "battery meta" play with a potential long-term "Amazon" thesis. $FLNC is in a capital-intensive expansion phase with thin margins generating billions in revenue but very little in net profit Key: This is a capital-intensive INTEGRATOR, not a battery manufacturer. They don't make lithium-ion batteries but rather procure them (roughly 50% from China and more recently aiming for 50% from USA). They provide large grid-scale battery integration into power systems with roles in: 🔹Advisory, procurement, & build-outs. 🔹AI driven battery fleet management software 🔹Long-term servicing ------------------------- THE "SCALE" Global Scale: Operates in 40+ markets with one of the largest deployed fleets of energy storage projects in the world. Credibility and Reach: Formed as a joint venture between Siemens (an industrial manufacturing giant) and AES (a global utility and power generator) with massive industry backing. Massive Backlog: As of their last report, their backlog was already enormous at ~$4.9 billion. They signed an additional ~$1.1 billion in new contracts after this last quarter ended (including two massive projects in Australia) Major Wins: They can operate at scale and were also just awarded Europe's largest ever BESS project (a massive 4 GWh system in Germany). ------------------------- THE "PROFIT PROBLEM" Wafer-Thin Margins: Out of $602.5 million of revenue in Q3 FY2025, their net income was just $6.9M (a ~1.1% net profit margin). (That 14% number you see is their GAAP Gross Margin, which is already thin, but I'd argue the net profit is the current story and why a company doing $2.6B in revenue is valued at $3.8B). Weak Guidance: FY2025 Adj. EBITDA guidance is just $0 to $20M despite forecasting over $2.6B in revenue. Trade Policy Risk: Highly exposed to US-China trade policy, which has weighed on profits. Roughly half of their battery cells come from China which hurts their tax credits. For these reasons they are strategically increasing their US sourcing now with a supply agreement with AESC for U.S. manufactured battery cells, primarily from AESC's facility in Tennessee. "Strong-ish" Growth: Revenue was up 24.7% YoY. This is good, but not explosive given the market's potential, and it's clearly not translating to the bottom line yet. For these reasons this is currently a smaller short term battery meta play for me that has shown very strong recent stock technical performance despite the significant broader market weakness. When institutions want a "cheap" de-risked pure battery play, I think they will reach for $FLNC. The long term potential case is that the story here is the classic "Amazon" model: Is $FLNC a company that's just in a capital-intensive expansion phase, or is it a low-margin business forever? For years, $AMZN wasn't highly profitable "on paper" as virtually all resources were spent on massive scaling. When the profit switch flipped, the stock exploded. $FLNC is in a similar "scale-at-all-costs" phase with the potential that servicing and software will be the future AWS higher margin story. Their pivot to US sourcing isn't just about "surviving" trade policy; it's about building a protected, high-growth, and potentially higher-margin business in the U.S. September 2025 saw their first shipment of U.S. domestic-content BESS systems. Depending on how this capital-intensive phase goes, they could evolve into a long-term play for me. If they survive the cash burn, scale successfully, and flip that profit switch, the "Amazon of batteries" thesis could play out. Relevance: $TSLA $EOSE $BE $GEV $STEM $ENS $GWH $ENS $TE $FSLR
3:10

$FLNC Batteries, Energy Storage 3.8B Market cap My take: A spicy shorter-term "battery meta" play with a potential long-term "Amazon" thesis. $FLNC is in a capital-intensive expansion phase with thin margins generating billions in revenue but very little in net profit Key: This is a capital-intensive INTEGRATOR, not a battery manufacturer. They don't make lithium-ion batteries but rather procure them (roughly 50% from China and more recently aiming for 50% from USA). They provide large grid-scale battery integration into power systems with roles in: 🔹Advisory, procurement, & build-outs. 🔹AI driven battery fleet management software 🔹Long-term servicing ------------------------- THE "SCALE" Global Scale: Operates in 40+ markets with one of the largest deployed fleets of energy storage projects in the world. Credibility and Reach: Formed as a joint venture between Siemens (an industrial manufacturing giant) and AES (a global utility and power generator) with massive industry backing. Massive Backlog: As of their last report, their backlog was already enormous at ~$4.9 billion. They signed an additional ~$1.1 billion in new contracts after this last quarter ended (including two massive projects in Australia) Major Wins: They can operate at scale and were also just awarded Europe's largest ever BESS project (a massive 4 GWh system in Germany). ------------------------- THE "PROFIT PROBLEM" Wafer-Thin Margins: Out of $602.5 million of revenue in Q3 FY2025, their net income was just $6.9M (a ~1.1% net profit margin). (That 14% number you see is their GAAP Gross Margin, which is already thin, but I'd argue the net profit is the current story and why a company doing $2.6B in revenue is valued at $3.8B). Weak Guidance: FY2025 Adj. EBITDA guidance is just $0 to $20M despite forecasting over $2.6B in revenue. Trade Policy Risk: Highly exposed to US-China trade policy, which has weighed on profits. Roughly half of their battery cells come from China which hurts their tax credits. For these reasons they are strategically increasing their US sourcing now with a supply agreement with AESC for U.S. manufactured battery cells, primarily from AESC's facility in Tennessee. "Strong-ish" Growth: Revenue was up 24.7% YoY. This is good, but not explosive given the market's potential, and it's clearly not translating to the bottom line yet. For these reasons this is currently a smaller short term battery meta play for me that has shown very strong recent stock technical performance despite the significant broader market weakness. When institutions want a "cheap" de-risked pure battery play, I think they will reach for $FLNC. The long term potential case is that the story here is the classic "Amazon" model: Is $FLNC a company that's just in a capital-intensive expansion phase, or is it a low-margin business forever? For years, $AMZN wasn't highly profitable "on paper" as virtually all resources were spent on massive scaling. When the profit switch flipped, the stock exploded. $FLNC is in a similar "scale-at-all-costs" phase with the potential that servicing and software will be the future AWS higher margin story. Their pivot to US sourcing isn't just about "surviving" trade policy; it's about building a protected, high-growth, and potentially higher-margin business in the U.S. September 2025 saw their first shipment of U.S. domestic-content BESS systems. Depending on how this capital-intensive phase goes, they could evolve into a long-term play for me. If they survive the cash burn, scale successfully, and flip that profit switch, the "Amazon of batteries" thesis could play out. Relevance: $TSLA $EOSE $BE $GEV $STEM $ENS $GWH $ENS $TE $FSLR

YeahDave

27,279 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад

Countries thinking there's going to be a global reset creating a China led world order, as CCP has made everyone believe for years are mistaken. The US has already put in place a sequence of events that is going to prevent this, and put China in its place, starting with the election of Donald Trump - as I had written months before he got elected (attached post). The US has already taken control of Panama canal and Venezuela. It is a matter of time before Cuba and all of South America are in US control. The US also wants Russia on its side and Russia will mostly pivot. It knows about the China influenced US deep state that created the Ukraine war and also removed Trump in 2020. It knows China is quietly taking over Russia's north east and may invade one day. It knows China's partnership with the US was one of reasons for the fall of the USSR. For which China got rewarded with business and tech by the US. Russia will silently pivot to be friendly with the west as soon as the Ukraine war is ended (the old DS is still preventing this influencing Europe against US wishes.) The US is already at work in Iran. Once the regime goes, most of the middle east will be under US control. Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Pakistan, Bangladesh all have already been prepared to be under US fold. China has lost influence in South Asia. The US is also in control of most of the world's energy except Russia's. It is getting control of all shipping lanes and channels, especially if it exerts control on Greenland, which it is trying and may get, directly or indirectly. Those who can see all these events and connect them can understand what's happening. To think somehow China will be able to break the US hegemony, collapse the dollar without collapsing itself, and upend the world order in its favor is delusional as of now. A delusion created by the China propaganda in the last decade by influencing most of world's mainstream media and infiltrating world's social media. Not just people but many countries are still in this delusion I think. The CCP, of course, is not going to collapse without a fight causing a lot of issues in the world. Now, where this fight will be and how it will be done is anybody's guess. But my opinion has been it won't go for Taiwan. It won't go fight the US directly or indirectly. Which rules out Japan, Phillipines, and Korea. That leaves only India and Vietnam. But Vietnam's own communist party seems more aligned with China now. So that's why I say China will create conflict with India when things start going south at home. Because this conflict is manageable with no risk of US intervention and no threat of India escalating it into a devastating nuclear war as a responsible power. And by using Pakistan, it has a possibility of a limited propaganda win to keep citizens in China supporting the CCP. It already made preparation for this starting a conflict in 2020 during Covid when China was sure everything was going as per plan. It has tested India, found weaknesses and strengths, prepared itself to fill gaps, and is sitting tight for the next move. But whatever move China makes, the US will ensure it gets trapped and weakened. Be it India or Taiwan, be it another plandemic or planned dumping of US treasuries to hit the dollar, China can't escape without issues. Being a single party dictatorship, the political collapse is inevitable one day. India or the US can fight a war, lose some territory or strategic interest to China, the worst that can happen is public disillusionment, protests, a collapse of the govt and a new one elected. Think about this in China's case. This is where it is headed as economic issues hit. And that economic hit and manufactured recession is coming, mostly in the next two years (after mid terms), created by the US by Trump's actions, trade wars, and takeovers around the world.
0:29

Countries thinking there's going to be a global reset creating a China led world order, as CCP has made everyone believe for years are mistaken. The US has already put in place a sequence of events that is going to prevent this, and put China in its place, starting with the election of Donald Trump - as I had written months before he got elected (attached post). The US has already taken control of Panama canal and Venezuela. It is a matter of time before Cuba and all of South America are in US control. The US also wants Russia on its side and Russia will mostly pivot. It knows about the China influenced US deep state that created the Ukraine war and also removed Trump in 2020. It knows China is quietly taking over Russia's north east and may invade one day. It knows China's partnership with the US was one of reasons for the fall of the USSR. For which China got rewarded with business and tech by the US. Russia will silently pivot to be friendly with the west as soon as the Ukraine war is ended (the old DS is still preventing this influencing Europe against US wishes.) The US is already at work in Iran. Once the regime goes, most of the middle east will be under US control. Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Pakistan, Bangladesh all have already been prepared to be under US fold. China has lost influence in South Asia. The US is also in control of most of the world's energy except Russia's. It is getting control of all shipping lanes and channels, especially if it exerts control on Greenland, which it is trying and may get, directly or indirectly. Those who can see all these events and connect them can understand what's happening. To think somehow China will be able to break the US hegemony, collapse the dollar without collapsing itself, and upend the world order in its favor is delusional as of now. A delusion created by the China propaganda in the last decade by influencing most of world's mainstream media and infiltrating world's social media. Not just people but many countries are still in this delusion I think. The CCP, of course, is not going to collapse without a fight causing a lot of issues in the world. Now, where this fight will be and how it will be done is anybody's guess. But my opinion has been it won't go for Taiwan. It won't go fight the US directly or indirectly. Which rules out Japan, Phillipines, and Korea. That leaves only India and Vietnam. But Vietnam's own communist party seems more aligned with China now. So that's why I say China will create conflict with India when things start going south at home. Because this conflict is manageable with no risk of US intervention and no threat of India escalating it into a devastating nuclear war as a responsible power. And by using Pakistan, it has a possibility of a limited propaganda win to keep citizens in China supporting the CCP. It already made preparation for this starting a conflict in 2020 during Covid when China was sure everything was going as per plan. It has tested India, found weaknesses and strengths, prepared itself to fill gaps, and is sitting tight for the next move. But whatever move China makes, the US will ensure it gets trapped and weakened. Be it India or Taiwan, be it another plandemic or planned dumping of US treasuries to hit the dollar, China can't escape without issues. Being a single party dictatorship, the political collapse is inevitable one day. India or the US can fight a war, lose some territory or strategic interest to China, the worst that can happen is public disillusionment, protests, a collapse of the govt and a new one elected. Think about this in China's case. This is where it is headed as economic issues hit. And that economic hit and manufactured recession is coming, mostly in the next two years (after mid terms), created by the US by Trump's actions, trade wars, and takeovers around the world.

Aravind

432,985 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

People are watching BYD and Xiaomi videos and losing their minds. The value is unreal, and half the comments are mocking the US tariff regime for protecting American companies from a better product. And yes, I'm going to be that guy: at what cost? Because this time there's an actual answer. China's auto industry made 34.78 million cars in 2025, up 10%. Profit barely moved. The margin was 4.1%, the lowest in a decade. Before June 2025, automakers were paying their parts suppliers on terms averaging over 170 days. Some past 240. That showroom price was funded by suppliers who delivered and went eight months without payment. China sells nearly $1.2 trillion more to the world than it buys back. Nearly 30% of its manufacturers are losing money. It can build about 55 million cars a year. The entire global market is roughly 90 million. Michael Froman (former US Trade Representative, now president of the Council on Foreign Relations) argues the world does not have enough buyers. German car exports to China fell 66% between 2022 and 2025, while China's vehicle exports more than doubled. Volkswagen is weighing cuts of up to 100,000 jobs and the closure of four German plants. Between 2012 and 2015, China just bought fewer raw materials, and copper prices fell over 40%, oil over 60%, and iron ore over 70%. Dozens of countries depend on China as their biggest customer, sending anywhere from 25% to 90% of their exports there. China pulled itself out of 2008 by spending $586 billion, about 12% of its output. That worked because its workforce was still growing. It peaked in 2015, and the total population started shrinking in 2022. Rich-country government debt has gone from 70% of output to 110%, so there is much less room to borrow for a rescue. In April, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, "The world cannot take a China with a trillion-dollar trade surplus." Froman wants the US and its allies to pressure Beijing to buy more. But local officials get promoted based on how many factories they build, and the land sales that pay for them are the only major revenue most local governments have. If they stop, they go broke.
2:29

People are watching BYD and Xiaomi videos and losing their minds. The value is unreal, and half the comments are mocking the US tariff regime for protecting American companies from a better product. And yes, I'm going to be that guy: at what cost? Because this time there's an actual answer. China's auto industry made 34.78 million cars in 2025, up 10%. Profit barely moved. The margin was 4.1%, the lowest in a decade. Before June 2025, automakers were paying their parts suppliers on terms averaging over 170 days. Some past 240. That showroom price was funded by suppliers who delivered and went eight months without payment. China sells nearly $1.2 trillion more to the world than it buys back. Nearly 30% of its manufacturers are losing money. It can build about 55 million cars a year. The entire global market is roughly 90 million. Michael Froman (former US Trade Representative, now president of the Council on Foreign Relations) argues the world does not have enough buyers. German car exports to China fell 66% between 2022 and 2025, while China's vehicle exports more than doubled. Volkswagen is weighing cuts of up to 100,000 jobs and the closure of four German plants. Between 2012 and 2015, China just bought fewer raw materials, and copper prices fell over 40%, oil over 60%, and iron ore over 70%. Dozens of countries depend on China as their biggest customer, sending anywhere from 25% to 90% of their exports there. China pulled itself out of 2008 by spending $586 billion, about 12% of its output. That worked because its workforce was still growing. It peaked in 2015, and the total population started shrinking in 2022. Rich-country government debt has gone from 70% of output to 110%, so there is much less room to borrow for a rescue. In April, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, "The world cannot take a China with a trillion-dollar trade surplus." Froman wants the US and its allies to pressure Beijing to buy more. But local officials get promoted based on how many factories they build, and the land sales that pay for them are the only major revenue most local governments have. If they stop, they go broke.

Sam Szuchan

11,526 просмотров • 25 дней назад

The most powerful force in the oil market is now a single country that doesn't produce a drop. OPEC IS DEAD And here's why you should change how you think about energy for the next decade: China controls the oil price not by pumping it, but by REFUSING TO BUY IT. For two years, while the West wasn't paying attention, China built a war chest of crude. They bought cheap, sanctioned barrels at $60 while everyone else looked the other way. They stacked a reserve now estimated between 1.2 and 1.5 BILLION barrels. Then the world got its biggest supply shock in modern history and instead of panic-buying like everyone else, China did the opposite. They stopped importing and started eating their own stockpile. Chinese crude imports collapsed from 11.6 million barrels a day to under 8 million - the lowest level since 2017. That single decision accounted for roughly 74% of the entire drop in global oil demand, according to JPMorgan. Sit with that number for a second. The world lost 14% of its crude supply. In 1973, OPEC cut off just 7% and the price exploded 134%. This shock was twice as large. But oil went the other way. WTI sits at $74 today. Because the world's largest buyer simply walked out of the store and lived off its pantry. THAT is the new OPEC. For 50 years we obsessed over the Saudis. We watched OPEC meetings like Fed meetings, parsing every production quota. Those days are ending and the most powerful swing force in oil is no longer a cartel that controls supply. It's one country that controls DEMAND. And demand is the harder lever. You can cheat on a production quota but you can't force a billion-barrel buyer to show up if it doesn't want to. Here's what this means for your money right now: China has capped the upside. As long as they're sitting on that hoard, they sell into every rally toward $100. No spike gets to run. The right tail is gone - stop dreaming about $150 oil. But they've also built the floor. Those reserves are draining fast. JPMorgan expects China back as a major buyer by August to start refilling. The US has to refill its own SPR, now at its lowest since 1990. Everyone has to restock at once. You don't get $100 oil - China sells it to you. You don't get $50 oil - China and everyone else has to come back and buy it. You get a range. And right now we're sitting at the bottom of it. Crude is parked on its 200-day moving average. Retail traders are positioned near record short in Brent. Sentiment is in the gutter, RSI under 30. When the entire crowd leans the same way off the same wrong assumption, I want the other side of that trade. If I had to bet the next $10 or $15 move in crude, I'm betting higher. Because the most important player in the oil market already told you exactly what it's going to do. The Saudis didn't break OPEC. China did - by building a reserve nobody could see and refusing to spend it when it mattered most.
1:35

The most powerful force in the oil market is now a single country that doesn't produce a drop. OPEC IS DEAD And here's why you should change how you think about energy for the next decade: China controls the oil price not by pumping it, but by REFUSING TO BUY IT. For two years, while the West wasn't paying attention, China built a war chest of crude. They bought cheap, sanctioned barrels at $60 while everyone else looked the other way. They stacked a reserve now estimated between 1.2 and 1.5 BILLION barrels. Then the world got its biggest supply shock in modern history and instead of panic-buying like everyone else, China did the opposite. They stopped importing and started eating their own stockpile. Chinese crude imports collapsed from 11.6 million barrels a day to under 8 million - the lowest level since 2017. That single decision accounted for roughly 74% of the entire drop in global oil demand, according to JPMorgan. Sit with that number for a second. The world lost 14% of its crude supply. In 1973, OPEC cut off just 7% and the price exploded 134%. This shock was twice as large. But oil went the other way. WTI sits at $74 today. Because the world's largest buyer simply walked out of the store and lived off its pantry. THAT is the new OPEC. For 50 years we obsessed over the Saudis. We watched OPEC meetings like Fed meetings, parsing every production quota. Those days are ending and the most powerful swing force in oil is no longer a cartel that controls supply. It's one country that controls DEMAND. And demand is the harder lever. You can cheat on a production quota but you can't force a billion-barrel buyer to show up if it doesn't want to. Here's what this means for your money right now: China has capped the upside. As long as they're sitting on that hoard, they sell into every rally toward $100. No spike gets to run. The right tail is gone - stop dreaming about $150 oil. But they've also built the floor. Those reserves are draining fast. JPMorgan expects China back as a major buyer by August to start refilling. The US has to refill its own SPR, now at its lowest since 1990. Everyone has to restock at once. You don't get $100 oil - China sells it to you. You don't get $50 oil - China and everyone else has to come back and buy it. You get a range. And right now we're sitting at the bottom of it. Crude is parked on its 200-day moving average. Retail traders are positioned near record short in Brent. Sentiment is in the gutter, RSI under 30. When the entire crowd leans the same way off the same wrong assumption, I want the other side of that trade. If I had to bet the next $10 or $15 move in crude, I'm betting higher. Because the most important player in the oil market already told you exactly what it's going to do. The Saudis didn't break OPEC. China did - by building a reserve nobody could see and refusing to spend it when it mattered most.

George Noble

58,527 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Tesla is the most successful CON in the history of capital markets. Not because the cars are bad. But because the entire business is engineered to impress on first glance and collapse under scrutiny. And the culture around it has made facts completely IRRELEVANT. I've never seen a company where the gap between what is promised and what is delivered is this wide, for this long, with this little accountability. Tesla's Full Self-Driving system is marketed as autonomy. But it is not autonomy. It is a camera-only system running probabilistic inference. The car is making statistical guesses about what it sees, thousands of times per second, with no redundancy when those guesses are wrong. Probabilistic inference controlling a two-ton vehicle at highway speed with your family inside. NHTSA has two open investigations covering 3.2 million Tesla vehicles. One was escalated to a formal Engineering Analysis in March after 9 crashes, including a fatality, where the system FAILED to detect sun glare, fog, and dust. The cameras went blind and the car kept driving. In Austin, Tesla's robotaxi fleet has reported 15 crashes across roughly 800,000 miles. One crash every 57,000 miles. The average American driver has a police-reported crash every 500,000 miles. Tesla's robotaxis crash at roughly 4x the human rate, WITH a safety monitor sitting in the car whose only job is to prevent crashes. Waymo operates over 2,500 fully driverless vehicles across multiple cities with no human backup and maintains a crash rate 85% below human drivers across 127 million autonomous miles. Tesla has ONE unsupervised vehicle in a tiny section of Austin. But here's what really makes Tesla different from every overvalued company I've ever analyzed: The facts do not matter to the people who own this stock. Every missed deadline, every broken promise gets filtered through the same response: attack the messenger. Call them a short seller. Call them a hater. Anything to avoid looking at the actual numbers. It's an online ecosystem that has made itself completely immune to facts. And Musk baked that dynamic into the culture from the beginning. Every time the fundamentals deteriorate, the faithful don't sell. They double down. When your shareholder base treats every dip as a buying opportunity regardless of the data, the stock becomes untethered from reality entirely. That's literally a religion with a ticker symbol. I highly suggest you read Edward Niedermeyer's book Ludicrous on this. And now it even gets WORSE... CapeFearAdvisors published a piece this week that should be required reading. Tesla's 2025 CEO Performance Award contains a change-of-control provision: In the event of a change of control, ALL operational milestones are disregarded. No million robotaxis, Optimus robots, or $400 billion EBITDA. NONE of it. So if SpaceX acquires Tesla at $8.5 trillion, every tranche of Musk's 423 million share award vests immediately. A single acquisition at that price triggers the full vesting of both plans at once, with no way to claw them back. The milestones everyone argues about are just a distraction. The mechanism is the change-of-control language buried in the SEC filing. This is about engineering the largest personal wealth transfer in modern financial history and using the narrative machine to keep the price elevated long enough to execute it. I've seen every bust of the last four decades. But this one is different because the cult of personality is stronger than anything I've witnessed. The movement around this stock cannot be touched by facts, and that is what makes it so dangerous. But the math always wins. ALWAYS. It just takes longer when the con is this good.
2:02

Tesla is the most successful CON in the history of capital markets. Not because the cars are bad. But because the entire business is engineered to impress on first glance and collapse under scrutiny. And the culture around it has made facts completely IRRELEVANT. I've never seen a company where the gap between what is promised and what is delivered is this wide, for this long, with this little accountability. Tesla's Full Self-Driving system is marketed as autonomy. But it is not autonomy. It is a camera-only system running probabilistic inference. The car is making statistical guesses about what it sees, thousands of times per second, with no redundancy when those guesses are wrong. Probabilistic inference controlling a two-ton vehicle at highway speed with your family inside. NHTSA has two open investigations covering 3.2 million Tesla vehicles. One was escalated to a formal Engineering Analysis in March after 9 crashes, including a fatality, where the system FAILED to detect sun glare, fog, and dust. The cameras went blind and the car kept driving. In Austin, Tesla's robotaxi fleet has reported 15 crashes across roughly 800,000 miles. One crash every 57,000 miles. The average American driver has a police-reported crash every 500,000 miles. Tesla's robotaxis crash at roughly 4x the human rate, WITH a safety monitor sitting in the car whose only job is to prevent crashes. Waymo operates over 2,500 fully driverless vehicles across multiple cities with no human backup and maintains a crash rate 85% below human drivers across 127 million autonomous miles. Tesla has ONE unsupervised vehicle in a tiny section of Austin. But here's what really makes Tesla different from every overvalued company I've ever analyzed: The facts do not matter to the people who own this stock. Every missed deadline, every broken promise gets filtered through the same response: attack the messenger. Call them a short seller. Call them a hater. Anything to avoid looking at the actual numbers. It's an online ecosystem that has made itself completely immune to facts. And Musk baked that dynamic into the culture from the beginning. Every time the fundamentals deteriorate, the faithful don't sell. They double down. When your shareholder base treats every dip as a buying opportunity regardless of the data, the stock becomes untethered from reality entirely. That's literally a religion with a ticker symbol. I highly suggest you read Edward Niedermeyer's book Ludicrous on this. And now it even gets WORSE... CapeFearAdvisors published a piece this week that should be required reading. Tesla's 2025 CEO Performance Award contains a change-of-control provision: In the event of a change of control, ALL operational milestones are disregarded. No million robotaxis, Optimus robots, or $400 billion EBITDA. NONE of it. So if SpaceX acquires Tesla at $8.5 trillion, every tranche of Musk's 423 million share award vests immediately. A single acquisition at that price triggers the full vesting of both plans at once, with no way to claw them back. The milestones everyone argues about are just a distraction. The mechanism is the change-of-control language buried in the SEC filing. This is about engineering the largest personal wealth transfer in modern financial history and using the narrative machine to keep the price elevated long enough to execute it. I've seen every bust of the last four decades. But this one is different because the cult of personality is stronger than anything I've witnessed. The movement around this stock cannot be touched by facts, and that is what makes it so dangerous. But the math always wins. ALWAYS. It just takes longer when the con is this good.

George Noble

171,950 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

My fellow Kenyans, Many of you have seen my recent posts about the deadly cancer that is corruption in our country. In my last post, I tried to paint a picture of the disconnect between our potential as a country and the economic circumstances we find ourselves in today, and the connection between corruption and the incalculable pain and suffering and cruelty that is meted out every single day to the most vulnerable among us by thieves operating out of public office. And after covering the goings-on in Mandera County, I told you that in my honest opinion, our governments exist to cater for the filthy-rich lifestyles of the vilest and most corrupt among us, at the expense of everyone else. I received tremendous support from all of you, for speaking on behalf of so many struggling Kenyans who don’t have a voice, or the audience necessary to spark the much-needed discussion about where we are heading as a country. But even with all that support, I have received messages asking me to be careful. One compatriot told me: “prepare to be relentlessly pursued, threatened, enticed, guilt-tripped, and gas-lit”. This is from a someone who knows how our government operates, and how it uses violence and its monopoly on power to silence those who question why politicians are stealing so much. I am not naive about the dangers of speaking up and calling out thieves who control state machinery, and who possess the ability to shut me up in a few seconds. But I will tell you why we CAN NOT and MUST NOT keep quiet. In November of 2023, I stumbled upon the story of a young man from Turkana, Calvin Esekon Esewit , who, despite scoring an A-, and getting an acceptance into medical school, spent two years not knowing whether his dreams of becoming a doctor would ever come true. I was moved by that story in a way that I can never adequately explain. I could not understand how it is possible that, in our country, a young man who appears to be every parent’s dream child can spend two years in limbo while we as a country possess the ability to invest in our best and brightest. And so, I spent weeks trying to chase down Calvin to see how I could help him attend college. After a lot of searching, I finally found Calvin, and by this time he had managed to get some help and is now in college. While this story has a great ending, it did not to be this way. And we know that the number of cases that end like this, with some success, are a small fraction of those ones which end tragically, with broken dreams. This is what happens when corruption consumes anything and everything in a country. It destroys lives. See attached video to learn about Calvin's story. I tell you all this story because it provides context to today's topic. For one story like this one that you see on the news, there are millions that never make the news. But they are real situations, nonetheless. There are millions of your compatriots who are devastated by this killer cancer of corruption that is perpetuated by people that you and I have put into public office ostensibly to improve our lives. They go into these offices and abuse the trust you bestowed upon them and deny you and everyone else a decent opportunity in life. You see, Calvin and millions of other victims of this shameless level of corruption and plunder have no voice, and no real ability to look the thieves that are destroying lives and generations of Kenyans in eye and tell them to stop this unbearable pain and the cruelty. This is the reason I embarked on this journey to attempt to expose this shameful situation. Watch the attached video of Calvin’s situation, and I am sure that you will agree that the millions of Calvins in our country need a voice, NO MATTER THE RISK. The thieves that are destroying the futures of millions of children just so they can have beachside homes in Miami, Dubai and other places count on the idea that most people will fear for their lives, and therefore not speak up. They count on the growing apathy in the Kenyan psyche. But we cannot give in to that. We cannot cower to thieves. We must look them straight in the eye and tell them that they MUST STOP. If we don't, our children and their children are guaranteed the same level of cruelty. And so with that, today I want to talk about the utterly insane crime scene that is Turkana County. I don’t know any other way to describe it, other than, it is a “shit-show”. Just follow along, and let me know if you disagree. As I did in my previous commentary, I will ask you to indulge me a little bit, and allow me to use a couple of pictures, because pictures speak louder than a thousand words. The first picture shows the state-of-the art County Government offices, that the County Government of Turkana decided to invest an ungodly amount of money on. Close to a billion shillings. The second picture is a classroom in session. In Turkana County. These two realities are occurring in parallel in the same county, at the same time. Ladies and gentlemen, let me just tell you that I do not go out of my way to find bad news. I want stories that would help re-affirm our belief in the fundamental decency of human beings. When I find good news as I review these Counties’ decisions and how they behave with our resources, I will be the first one to report it to you. But I don’t have any good news today. I have bad news. If you read my commentary yesterday and were offended by what you saw, I am afraid you might not make it to the end of this article, because what you will hear will be quite shocking. The cancer of corruption, particularly at the County Government level, is worse than your wildest imagination. And so, as I like to do, I like to start off by putting some numbers on the table for us to use as reference points. Bear in my that all the information I put in this article is publicly available. Nothing came to me through a whistle blower. The first number is KSH 100 Billion. With a B. In the last decade or so, you and I, through the National Government, has sent over KSH 100 billion to Turkana County. To support recurrent expenditure, and development. For example, in the 2022-2023 fiscal year, we sent KSH 12.6 billion. In the 2021-2022 fiscal year, we sent KSH 11.4 billion. And on and on and on. The second number is 1 million. This is the population of Turkana County. The third number is KSH 18.4 billion. This was Turkana County’s budget for the 2022-2023 fiscal year. The fourth number is KSH 190 million. This was the amount of money that Turkana County was able to generate on its own accord within the county, from all its investments and other activities in the period in question. This number is an important proxy, in my view, for the value of the county’s economic prospects for the foreseeable future, and to people that are not driven by greed and corruption, would be an important consideration when they are thinking about how and where to deploy your money as taxpayers. If you are doing the math, Turkana County, for the 2022-2023 fiscal year, was only able to raise 1% of the funds needed to keep the lights on. 99% came from you and I, and a tiny amount from grants. The next number is KSH 129, 040. This is the average ANNUAL [emphasis added] income of a resident of Turkana County ( Keep that number in mind when we are discussing the massive theft of public funds by Turkana County leaders. The next number is 80%. 80% of the residents of Turkana County live below the poverty line. They have a really difficult time putting food on the table. ( The next number is KSH 12 Million. This is the basic salary of the Governor of Turkana County before other benefits that, as I explained yesterday, can often double the salary. Remember the “housing allowance”, the “hardship allowance”, the “commuter allowance”, the “risk allowance”, the “extraneous allowance”, etc.? Remember that? I still cannot figure out, for the life of me, what “extraneous” means in the context of County business, but we don’t time to dwell on this. The next number is 93. The Governor of Turkana County makes 93 times the average Turkana County resident’s annual income. 93 times! The next number is 82%. This was the percentage of people that were illiterate in Turkana County in 2013 ( Could not read or write. A point to note about the above literacy figure. Ten years later, and despite over KSH 100 billion is spent in Turkana County, including many billions for education, that literacy rate HAS NOT CHANGED ONE BIT. Only 20% of the population can read or write today. ( KSH 829 million. This is how much it cost to build the County Government offices. Yes, the ones shown in the first picture. KSH 120 million. The County Government decided that it was prudent to pay a contractor KSH 120 million to construct the Governor’s personal residence. Get this, even after this payment, no construction took place. The money was stolen. All of it. KSH 90 Million. This is the amount that the County Government paid to another contractor, to build the Governor a mansion, having previously lost KSH 120 million. So, the tally for the Governor’s residence now stands at KSH 210 million. Never mind that the limit allowed by law is KSH 45 million. KSH 5 billion. In the last days of his term in office, an outgoing Governor of Turkana, Koli Nanok, EGH. , sought to inflate pending bills by adding KSH 5 billion so that it can be paid to his criminal cartel. KSH 5 billion. We have our key numbers, ladies and gentlemen, so let us discuss. So, we have a county that is dead last in literacy, and in the top 2 of the poorest counties in the republic. Only 20% of the population can read. The Governor earns 92 times the average citizen. The Governor lives in a house that cost over KSH 200 million. When he leaves his house in the morning, he goes to his office that cost KSH 829 million. And this is all happening when 80% of the County residents struggle to put food on the table. Those are the facts, and they are not in dispute. During the same time, the County Government geniuses decide to build the Speaker of the County Assembly a house. And a home office, and a garage. The house was initially estimated to cost KSH 75 million. But due to circumstances that not a soul in the government could explain to auditors, the contract expired before the house was completed, and the County Government found a new contractor to complete the job for an additional KSH 29 million. But this palace in the jungle worth apparently worth over KSH 100 million in Turkana County was not enough. The County proceeded to build the Speaker a guest house for another KSH 19 million, and a few other amenities, and so the whole cost went to KSH 276 million! The legal limit for a Speaker’s house is KSH 35 million, and they spent close to KSH 130 million just for one residence. By this time, I am sure you are getting tired of these obscene numbers. You and I work, and pay taxes. Nobody pays you 92 times the income your average neighbor is making. And for sure nobody will drop KSH 100 million to build you a house. These are the perks of working in government in a poor country. Go figure. And so, as a country, we need to answer for ourselves the question I posed yesterday, which is, what is the point of government? What is its role in our lives. If this level of criminality and pillaging can occur in our country in the midst of so much poverty, questioning the need for government is a totally valid question. I said in my last post that, when the average citizen looks at the thug on the street and the government, and is unable to discern any meaningful difference between them, that society from that point on is on its journey to becoming a failed state. A journey to anarchy. Over the last two months or so, Kenyans have been shouting at the top of their lungs, begging for their government to listen. To hear them out. Kenyans have asked that their government stop this unbelievable level of plunder. Dozens of Kenyans have died, thousands injured, and many more are missing today. To this day, the people that govern us continue to use the power of the gun to subdue Kenyans, until they can take everything in their sight. And so, as a society, we all have to ask whether today there is any difference between the thug on the street and our governments. Every Kenyan will have to answer this question for themselves. And before answering this question, everyone needs to remember the many Calvins in our society. Smart, upright children whose only crime is to be born in an unforgiving, lawless, and corrupt purgatory that is Kenya today. For myself, I have concluded that there is no difference between the thug on the street and our governments, county and national alike. If you can see any meaningful difference, let me know. I am willing to listen. So despite over KSH 100 billion in money sent to Turkana County, there is almost no measurable improvement in people’s life today. None. And it makes sense, when you look at how that money is spent. I want you to forget for a second the obscene obsession by the County Government with spending ungodly amounts of money on themselves. The houses, etc. If you step back and look at how the government is actually spending the hard-earned money on other things, you will be depressed. I am telling you that I wept three times in the middle of the night trying to make sense of this crazy situation in Turkana County. Three times. I have never imagined that human beings can be so greedy and cold-blooded. Think about this: In the couple of years I reviewed, the County spent around KSH 400 million annually in “tourism” initiatives, including marketing, and apparently upgrading certain facilities. KSH 400 million for tourism. In Turkana County. In 1 year. KSH 400 million per year in marketing and other money pits. The government’s own website says that the county gets around 3000 visitors per month. Around 36,000 per year. That’s them saying that, on their website. Are you curious to know the return on that KSH 400 million investment? I have an answer for you. Remember that I told you that the County has never raised more than KSH 200 million in a year within the county, despite its KSH 18.4 billion budget? Let me walk you through the breakdown of the absolutely embarrassing shit-show that is the County Government’s “own source revenue” operations. In 2022-2023, the County Government collected KSH 190 million locally against their KSH 18.4 billion budget. 1% of the budget. Remember, there is absolutely no requirement on the County to cut costs, or achieve certain local revenue targets today. So they raised KSH 45 million in single business permits, KSH 72 million in CESS, KSH 8 million in market fee, KSH 9 million in “slaughter fees”. And then finally, there is the return on the tourism investment that you were looking for. A whopping KSH 209, 000 in “park fees”. KSH 209,000 in fees, after investing KSH 400 million. And so, take this as an example and extrapolate it across the entire budget, and you can see how one can spend KSH 100 billion and get NOTHING in return. You don’t need to be a genius to see the absurdity of this situation. Let me explain using an example that should illustrate the utter dimwittedness of this situation. Remember the KSH 100 billion sent to Turkana by you and me? Part of this amount is supposed to be for “service delivery”, or “recurrent expenditure”. Usually about 70% of the budget. The balance, 30%, is designed to go to development projects. With that in mind, from KSH 100 billion, the County apparently has made KSH 30 billion worth of investments, right? 30% of the KSH 100 billion. Now, if you employed someone to run a business for you, and they asked you to invest KSH 30 billion, which is no small fortune, at some point you would have to start seeing returns, right? That’s common sense, isn’t it? So, when we look at the revenues streams that make up this paltry sum of KSH 190 million, and see things like “slaughter fees’ and “market fees”, what does it tell you? It tells me there is no real “development” happening in that county. Trust me, if you had real development totaling KSH 30 billion, you would have corporate taxes in the hundreds of millions or billions, a booming real estate market, rising wages and standards of living, etc., low unemployment, etc. You would not have 80% of the people living hand-to mouth, and a County Government that can not afford to support itself for 5 days out of the year that has 365 days! We do not have enough time, trust me, to deal with the shit-show that is Turkana County. Dealing with that mess would require a forensic team. I will just highlight a few of other “in your-face” type of theft of public funds, and then conclude my submission. A government that has a budget of KSH 18.4 billion annually, and which has never raised more than 1% of its budget had the wisdom to do the following with your money: · Spend KSH 222 million on a project building something that NOBODY uses. You got that right. They spent KSH 222 million on a facility that NOBODY uses. KSH 222 million gone to waste, in a county that is dead last in pretty much all measures of human progress. · Remember the County Government offices that cost KSH 829 million? The County spent KSH 82 million on “air-conditioning” for that building. · Despite the County Spending hundreds of millions for the top three officers of the County, the Governor and his Deputy, in the 2022-2023 year, illegally charged the county (you and I) KSH 2.2 million in housing allowance! · Built two facilities for KSH 16 million, that were completed, but NOBODY uses them. · Entered into a contract for the construction of a plastic use facility for KSH 13 million in 2021. The contractor gets paid KSH 4.9 million, and has never been seen since. · Paid out KSH 62 million in salaries that were not supportable in just one year. They could not point to anybody and say, that is who we paid. · Paid out KSH 27 million in legal fees that nobody could say what they related to. And the County’s Legal Advisor, who, in 2022-2023, had a budget of KSH 123 million, apparently did not know anything about it! · Had an outstanding bill at Kenya Revenue Authority in the amount of KSH 486 million, that did not show up on the County Government’s financial statements. Think about that. KSH 486 million owned to the Kenya Revenue Authority, and that liability is not on the financial statements! This only means that someone took those funds for themselves, which is why the liability would be missing from the county’s books. · Could not account for KSH 367 million in expenditures for 2022-2023. KSH 367 million, in unexplained expenses. · Awarded a contract worth over KSH 200 million to a bidder with no bank statement, against the law. This contract was entered into and approved before the statutory time after the bidding process lapsed. Someone was in a hurry to get paid. KSH 200 million, illegally awarded to a bidder who did not have a 6-month bank statement. · Apparently purchased KSH 1.5 billion in assets in 2022-2023, but kept no records of the said assets. For this reason, NOBODY can verify where these assets are located. KSH 1.5 billion. Let me just say this. In my last article, the most common critique was that it was too long. Too many words. I did not intend to make another long article. Trust me when I tell you this, we do not have the time to detail half of the problems in Turkana County. For just 1 year! We do not. Now, you recall my point about how societies descend to madness and anarchy. In our country today, our leaders are accusing those of us who are agitating for honest and transparent governance of being traitors to the country. They call us anarchists, criminals, and merchants of chaos. They are questioning our patriotism. You have all seen the government and its horde of propagandists threatening the Ford Foundation and others because they may have helped civil society keep the lights on, and investigative journalists to have the capacity to continue to do the Lord’s work of investigating criminality in government. As though citizens are so dumb and ignorant, that they cannot see what is going on. The reason why millions of Calvins in this country will never graduate from college and earn a decent living is not because of the Ford Foundation. No. It is because of the thieves we have in office today, like the ones in Turkana County. In this post, I copy our leaders, the President and his deputy. I copy them because I want them to help Kenyans understand the following conundrum, about crime and criminals. There is nothing so special or peculiar about criminals or where they pop up. There are criminals in the US, Canada, France, and other places. Just like we have criminals in Kenya. The difference between banana republics and failed states, and civilized societies, is WHAT we do to and about criminals. In civilized societies, criminals are prosecuted and punished heavily. They are shunned. In some places, those charged with serious crimes such as corruption are executed. These are societies that are committed to sending the message that corruption, which robs citizens of their rights, is not acceptable. And they demonstrate this commitment by heavily punishing those who steal from the most vulnerable in society. In Kenya, we see the opposite. Criminals are exalted. They are promoted and embraced in government. It was just last week that the president unveiled his nominees for his Cabinet. Among them, are the likes of Hassan Ali Joho, EGH. , @GovWOparanya , and Davis Chirchir, ALL people who have been accused or charged with massive corruption against Kenyans. And am sure you remember that I mentioned Koli Nanok, EGH. , the man who tried to steal KSH 5 billion in his last days in office. Would you believe it if I told you that he works in government, at State House? He plunded billions of your money, got no measurable improvement in the lives of his subjects, and now has a government job in State House. Let that sink in. And so, the question is, how is it that in a country of 55 million people, with thousands of highly qualified people who have never ever stolen from Kenyans, he ends up with the criminals and thieves in the government, despite the fact that their crimes are in the public domain? How is this possible? Is it possible that these thieves possess a certain unique ability to run government, save Kenyans billions, and solve problems in a way that the president performs a cost-benefit analysis, and the benefits outweigh the costs of their theft? If not, what message does it send to Kenyans, when their own president puts into office known thieves? I think that is a fair question, don’t you? Dr. Ekuru Aukot Rigathi Gachagua William Samoei Ruto, PhD Okiya Omtatah Okoiti Citizen TV Kenya Nation Breaking News TI-Kenya CNN County Government of Turkana
3:09

My fellow Kenyans, Many of you have seen my recent posts about the deadly cancer that is corruption in our country. In my last post, I tried to paint a picture of the disconnect between our potential as a country and the economic circumstances we find ourselves in today, and the connection between corruption and the incalculable pain and suffering and cruelty that is meted out every single day to the most vulnerable among us by thieves operating out of public office. And after covering the goings-on in Mandera County, I told you that in my honest opinion, our governments exist to cater for the filthy-rich lifestyles of the vilest and most corrupt among us, at the expense of everyone else. I received tremendous support from all of you, for speaking on behalf of so many struggling Kenyans who don’t have a voice, or the audience necessary to spark the much-needed discussion about where we are heading as a country. But even with all that support, I have received messages asking me to be careful. One compatriot told me: “prepare to be relentlessly pursued, threatened, enticed, guilt-tripped, and gas-lit”. This is from a someone who knows how our government operates, and how it uses violence and its monopoly on power to silence those who question why politicians are stealing so much. I am not naive about the dangers of speaking up and calling out thieves who control state machinery, and who possess the ability to shut me up in a few seconds. But I will tell you why we CAN NOT and MUST NOT keep quiet. In November of 2023, I stumbled upon the story of a young man from Turkana, Calvin Esekon Esewit , who, despite scoring an A-, and getting an acceptance into medical school, spent two years not knowing whether his dreams of becoming a doctor would ever come true. I was moved by that story in a way that I can never adequately explain. I could not understand how it is possible that, in our country, a young man who appears to be every parent’s dream child can spend two years in limbo while we as a country possess the ability to invest in our best and brightest. And so, I spent weeks trying to chase down Calvin to see how I could help him attend college. After a lot of searching, I finally found Calvin, and by this time he had managed to get some help and is now in college. While this story has a great ending, it did not to be this way. And we know that the number of cases that end like this, with some success, are a small fraction of those ones which end tragically, with broken dreams. This is what happens when corruption consumes anything and everything in a country. It destroys lives. See attached video to learn about Calvin's story. I tell you all this story because it provides context to today's topic. For one story like this one that you see on the news, there are millions that never make the news. But they are real situations, nonetheless. There are millions of your compatriots who are devastated by this killer cancer of corruption that is perpetuated by people that you and I have put into public office ostensibly to improve our lives. They go into these offices and abuse the trust you bestowed upon them and deny you and everyone else a decent opportunity in life. You see, Calvin and millions of other victims of this shameless level of corruption and plunder have no voice, and no real ability to look the thieves that are destroying lives and generations of Kenyans in eye and tell them to stop this unbearable pain and the cruelty. This is the reason I embarked on this journey to attempt to expose this shameful situation. Watch the attached video of Calvin’s situation, and I am sure that you will agree that the millions of Calvins in our country need a voice, NO MATTER THE RISK. The thieves that are destroying the futures of millions of children just so they can have beachside homes in Miami, Dubai and other places count on the idea that most people will fear for their lives, and therefore not speak up. They count on the growing apathy in the Kenyan psyche. But we cannot give in to that. We cannot cower to thieves. We must look them straight in the eye and tell them that they MUST STOP. If we don't, our children and their children are guaranteed the same level of cruelty. And so with that, today I want to talk about the utterly insane crime scene that is Turkana County. I don’t know any other way to describe it, other than, it is a “shit-show”. Just follow along, and let me know if you disagree. As I did in my previous commentary, I will ask you to indulge me a little bit, and allow me to use a couple of pictures, because pictures speak louder than a thousand words. The first picture shows the state-of-the art County Government offices, that the County Government of Turkana decided to invest an ungodly amount of money on. Close to a billion shillings. The second picture is a classroom in session. In Turkana County. These two realities are occurring in parallel in the same county, at the same time. Ladies and gentlemen, let me just tell you that I do not go out of my way to find bad news. I want stories that would help re-affirm our belief in the fundamental decency of human beings. When I find good news as I review these Counties’ decisions and how they behave with our resources, I will be the first one to report it to you. But I don’t have any good news today. I have bad news. If you read my commentary yesterday and were offended by what you saw, I am afraid you might not make it to the end of this article, because what you will hear will be quite shocking. The cancer of corruption, particularly at the County Government level, is worse than your wildest imagination. And so, as I like to do, I like to start off by putting some numbers on the table for us to use as reference points. Bear in my that all the information I put in this article is publicly available. Nothing came to me through a whistle blower. The first number is KSH 100 Billion. With a B. In the last decade or so, you and I, through the National Government, has sent over KSH 100 billion to Turkana County. To support recurrent expenditure, and development. For example, in the 2022-2023 fiscal year, we sent KSH 12.6 billion. In the 2021-2022 fiscal year, we sent KSH 11.4 billion. And on and on and on. The second number is 1 million. This is the population of Turkana County. The third number is KSH 18.4 billion. This was Turkana County’s budget for the 2022-2023 fiscal year. The fourth number is KSH 190 million. This was the amount of money that Turkana County was able to generate on its own accord within the county, from all its investments and other activities in the period in question. This number is an important proxy, in my view, for the value of the county’s economic prospects for the foreseeable future, and to people that are not driven by greed and corruption, would be an important consideration when they are thinking about how and where to deploy your money as taxpayers. If you are doing the math, Turkana County, for the 2022-2023 fiscal year, was only able to raise 1% of the funds needed to keep the lights on. 99% came from you and I, and a tiny amount from grants. The next number is KSH 129, 040. This is the average ANNUAL [emphasis added] income of a resident of Turkana County ( Keep that number in mind when we are discussing the massive theft of public funds by Turkana County leaders. The next number is 80%. 80% of the residents of Turkana County live below the poverty line. They have a really difficult time putting food on the table. ( The next number is KSH 12 Million. This is the basic salary of the Governor of Turkana County before other benefits that, as I explained yesterday, can often double the salary. Remember the “housing allowance”, the “hardship allowance”, the “commuter allowance”, the “risk allowance”, the “extraneous allowance”, etc.? Remember that? I still cannot figure out, for the life of me, what “extraneous” means in the context of County business, but we don’t time to dwell on this. The next number is 93. The Governor of Turkana County makes 93 times the average Turkana County resident’s annual income. 93 times! The next number is 82%. This was the percentage of people that were illiterate in Turkana County in 2013 ( Could not read or write. A point to note about the above literacy figure. Ten years later, and despite over KSH 100 billion is spent in Turkana County, including many billions for education, that literacy rate HAS NOT CHANGED ONE BIT. Only 20% of the population can read or write today. ( KSH 829 million. This is how much it cost to build the County Government offices. Yes, the ones shown in the first picture. KSH 120 million. The County Government decided that it was prudent to pay a contractor KSH 120 million to construct the Governor’s personal residence. Get this, even after this payment, no construction took place. The money was stolen. All of it. KSH 90 Million. This is the amount that the County Government paid to another contractor, to build the Governor a mansion, having previously lost KSH 120 million. So, the tally for the Governor’s residence now stands at KSH 210 million. Never mind that the limit allowed by law is KSH 45 million. KSH 5 billion. In the last days of his term in office, an outgoing Governor of Turkana, Koli Nanok, EGH. , sought to inflate pending bills by adding KSH 5 billion so that it can be paid to his criminal cartel. KSH 5 billion. We have our key numbers, ladies and gentlemen, so let us discuss. So, we have a county that is dead last in literacy, and in the top 2 of the poorest counties in the republic. Only 20% of the population can read. The Governor earns 92 times the average citizen. The Governor lives in a house that cost over KSH 200 million. When he leaves his house in the morning, he goes to his office that cost KSH 829 million. And this is all happening when 80% of the County residents struggle to put food on the table. Those are the facts, and they are not in dispute. During the same time, the County Government geniuses decide to build the Speaker of the County Assembly a house. And a home office, and a garage. The house was initially estimated to cost KSH 75 million. But due to circumstances that not a soul in the government could explain to auditors, the contract expired before the house was completed, and the County Government found a new contractor to complete the job for an additional KSH 29 million. But this palace in the jungle worth apparently worth over KSH 100 million in Turkana County was not enough. The County proceeded to build the Speaker a guest house for another KSH 19 million, and a few other amenities, and so the whole cost went to KSH 276 million! The legal limit for a Speaker’s house is KSH 35 million, and they spent close to KSH 130 million just for one residence. By this time, I am sure you are getting tired of these obscene numbers. You and I work, and pay taxes. Nobody pays you 92 times the income your average neighbor is making. And for sure nobody will drop KSH 100 million to build you a house. These are the perks of working in government in a poor country. Go figure. And so, as a country, we need to answer for ourselves the question I posed yesterday, which is, what is the point of government? What is its role in our lives. If this level of criminality and pillaging can occur in our country in the midst of so much poverty, questioning the need for government is a totally valid question. I said in my last post that, when the average citizen looks at the thug on the street and the government, and is unable to discern any meaningful difference between them, that society from that point on is on its journey to becoming a failed state. A journey to anarchy. Over the last two months or so, Kenyans have been shouting at the top of their lungs, begging for their government to listen. To hear them out. Kenyans have asked that their government stop this unbelievable level of plunder. Dozens of Kenyans have died, thousands injured, and many more are missing today. To this day, the people that govern us continue to use the power of the gun to subdue Kenyans, until they can take everything in their sight. And so, as a society, we all have to ask whether today there is any difference between the thug on the street and our governments. Every Kenyan will have to answer this question for themselves. And before answering this question, everyone needs to remember the many Calvins in our society. Smart, upright children whose only crime is to be born in an unforgiving, lawless, and corrupt purgatory that is Kenya today. For myself, I have concluded that there is no difference between the thug on the street and our governments, county and national alike. If you can see any meaningful difference, let me know. I am willing to listen. So despite over KSH 100 billion in money sent to Turkana County, there is almost no measurable improvement in people’s life today. None. And it makes sense, when you look at how that money is spent. I want you to forget for a second the obscene obsession by the County Government with spending ungodly amounts of money on themselves. The houses, etc. If you step back and look at how the government is actually spending the hard-earned money on other things, you will be depressed. I am telling you that I wept three times in the middle of the night trying to make sense of this crazy situation in Turkana County. Three times. I have never imagined that human beings can be so greedy and cold-blooded. Think about this: In the couple of years I reviewed, the County spent around KSH 400 million annually in “tourism” initiatives, including marketing, and apparently upgrading certain facilities. KSH 400 million for tourism. In Turkana County. In 1 year. KSH 400 million per year in marketing and other money pits. The government’s own website says that the county gets around 3000 visitors per month. Around 36,000 per year. That’s them saying that, on their website. Are you curious to know the return on that KSH 400 million investment? I have an answer for you. Remember that I told you that the County has never raised more than KSH 200 million in a year within the county, despite its KSH 18.4 billion budget? Let me walk you through the breakdown of the absolutely embarrassing shit-show that is the County Government’s “own source revenue” operations. In 2022-2023, the County Government collected KSH 190 million locally against their KSH 18.4 billion budget. 1% of the budget. Remember, there is absolutely no requirement on the County to cut costs, or achieve certain local revenue targets today. So they raised KSH 45 million in single business permits, KSH 72 million in CESS, KSH 8 million in market fee, KSH 9 million in “slaughter fees”. And then finally, there is the return on the tourism investment that you were looking for. A whopping KSH 209, 000 in “park fees”. KSH 209,000 in fees, after investing KSH 400 million. And so, take this as an example and extrapolate it across the entire budget, and you can see how one can spend KSH 100 billion and get NOTHING in return. You don’t need to be a genius to see the absurdity of this situation. Let me explain using an example that should illustrate the utter dimwittedness of this situation. Remember the KSH 100 billion sent to Turkana by you and me? Part of this amount is supposed to be for “service delivery”, or “recurrent expenditure”. Usually about 70% of the budget. The balance, 30%, is designed to go to development projects. With that in mind, from KSH 100 billion, the County apparently has made KSH 30 billion worth of investments, right? 30% of the KSH 100 billion. Now, if you employed someone to run a business for you, and they asked you to invest KSH 30 billion, which is no small fortune, at some point you would have to start seeing returns, right? That’s common sense, isn’t it? So, when we look at the revenues streams that make up this paltry sum of KSH 190 million, and see things like “slaughter fees’ and “market fees”, what does it tell you? It tells me there is no real “development” happening in that county. Trust me, if you had real development totaling KSH 30 billion, you would have corporate taxes in the hundreds of millions or billions, a booming real estate market, rising wages and standards of living, etc., low unemployment, etc. You would not have 80% of the people living hand-to mouth, and a County Government that can not afford to support itself for 5 days out of the year that has 365 days! We do not have enough time, trust me, to deal with the shit-show that is Turkana County. Dealing with that mess would require a forensic team. I will just highlight a few of other “in your-face” type of theft of public funds, and then conclude my submission. A government that has a budget of KSH 18.4 billion annually, and which has never raised more than 1% of its budget had the wisdom to do the following with your money: · Spend KSH 222 million on a project building something that NOBODY uses. You got that right. They spent KSH 222 million on a facility that NOBODY uses. KSH 222 million gone to waste, in a county that is dead last in pretty much all measures of human progress. · Remember the County Government offices that cost KSH 829 million? The County spent KSH 82 million on “air-conditioning” for that building. · Despite the County Spending hundreds of millions for the top three officers of the County, the Governor and his Deputy, in the 2022-2023 year, illegally charged the county (you and I) KSH 2.2 million in housing allowance! · Built two facilities for KSH 16 million, that were completed, but NOBODY uses them. · Entered into a contract for the construction of a plastic use facility for KSH 13 million in 2021. The contractor gets paid KSH 4.9 million, and has never been seen since. · Paid out KSH 62 million in salaries that were not supportable in just one year. They could not point to anybody and say, that is who we paid. · Paid out KSH 27 million in legal fees that nobody could say what they related to. And the County’s Legal Advisor, who, in 2022-2023, had a budget of KSH 123 million, apparently did not know anything about it! · Had an outstanding bill at Kenya Revenue Authority in the amount of KSH 486 million, that did not show up on the County Government’s financial statements. Think about that. KSH 486 million owned to the Kenya Revenue Authority, and that liability is not on the financial statements! This only means that someone took those funds for themselves, which is why the liability would be missing from the county’s books. · Could not account for KSH 367 million in expenditures for 2022-2023. KSH 367 million, in unexplained expenses. · Awarded a contract worth over KSH 200 million to a bidder with no bank statement, against the law. This contract was entered into and approved before the statutory time after the bidding process lapsed. Someone was in a hurry to get paid. KSH 200 million, illegally awarded to a bidder who did not have a 6-month bank statement. · Apparently purchased KSH 1.5 billion in assets in 2022-2023, but kept no records of the said assets. For this reason, NOBODY can verify where these assets are located. KSH 1.5 billion. Let me just say this. In my last article, the most common critique was that it was too long. Too many words. I did not intend to make another long article. Trust me when I tell you this, we do not have the time to detail half of the problems in Turkana County. For just 1 year! We do not. Now, you recall my point about how societies descend to madness and anarchy. In our country today, our leaders are accusing those of us who are agitating for honest and transparent governance of being traitors to the country. They call us anarchists, criminals, and merchants of chaos. They are questioning our patriotism. You have all seen the government and its horde of propagandists threatening the Ford Foundation and others because they may have helped civil society keep the lights on, and investigative journalists to have the capacity to continue to do the Lord’s work of investigating criminality in government. As though citizens are so dumb and ignorant, that they cannot see what is going on. The reason why millions of Calvins in this country will never graduate from college and earn a decent living is not because of the Ford Foundation. No. It is because of the thieves we have in office today, like the ones in Turkana County. In this post, I copy our leaders, the President and his deputy. I copy them because I want them to help Kenyans understand the following conundrum, about crime and criminals. There is nothing so special or peculiar about criminals or where they pop up. There are criminals in the US, Canada, France, and other places. Just like we have criminals in Kenya. The difference between banana republics and failed states, and civilized societies, is WHAT we do to and about criminals. In civilized societies, criminals are prosecuted and punished heavily. They are shunned. In some places, those charged with serious crimes such as corruption are executed. These are societies that are committed to sending the message that corruption, which robs citizens of their rights, is not acceptable. And they demonstrate this commitment by heavily punishing those who steal from the most vulnerable in society. In Kenya, we see the opposite. Criminals are exalted. They are promoted and embraced in government. It was just last week that the president unveiled his nominees for his Cabinet. Among them, are the likes of Hassan Ali Joho, EGH. , @GovWOparanya , and Davis Chirchir, ALL people who have been accused or charged with massive corruption against Kenyans. And am sure you remember that I mentioned Koli Nanok, EGH. , the man who tried to steal KSH 5 billion in his last days in office. Would you believe it if I told you that he works in government, at State House? He plunded billions of your money, got no measurable improvement in the lives of his subjects, and now has a government job in State House. Let that sink in. And so, the question is, how is it that in a country of 55 million people, with thousands of highly qualified people who have never ever stolen from Kenyans, he ends up with the criminals and thieves in the government, despite the fact that their crimes are in the public domain? How is this possible? Is it possible that these thieves possess a certain unique ability to run government, save Kenyans billions, and solve problems in a way that the president performs a cost-benefit analysis, and the benefits outweigh the costs of their theft? If not, what message does it send to Kenyans, when their own president puts into office known thieves? I think that is a fair question, don’t you? Dr. Ekuru Aukot Rigathi Gachagua William Samoei Ruto, PhD Okiya Omtatah Okoiti Citizen TV Kenya Nation Breaking News TI-Kenya CNN County Government of Turkana

Bonnie Mwangi, CPA, LLM, MBA

107,583 просмотров • 2 лет назад

The last and biggest bull run has started, and it is not what you think it is. It all started when China began to unban crypto 👇 You see, the U.S. is making aggressive moves to become the global crypto capital in 2025. China has yet to respond. But what if that response is a full reopening of its crypto markets? Imagine China welcoming back Binance and other major crypto firms that were forced into a global regulatory maze after the 2017 ban. Picture these companies returning home, deploying their products into the massive Chinese market—their birthplace. Imagine 1.5 billion people gaining seamless access to crypto, integrating it into their daily lives just like WeChat Pay and Alipay. Imagine Bitcoin miners returning, reestablishing China’s dominance in hash rate. Now, picture the largest middle class in the world, alongside 6.2 million dollar millionaires, starting to deploy their capital into crypto. That’s not just a bull market. it’s a true financial revolution. Imagine China’s global trade volumes and exchanges fully transitioning to crypto, requiring Bitcoin reserves to guarantee payments. Think about Chinese factories, trading companies, and banks all operating through crypto-powered financial rails, securing supply chains and accelerating transactions. Imagine China launching new credit lines for international infrastructure investments, but with a new paradigm, repayments would fuel AI and crypto infrastructure, funding national programs for data collection and exchange through crypto gateways. Imagine China granting amnesty to all past financial crime cases related to crypto, opening the floodgates for entrepreneurs, investors, and businesses to return freely, reclaiming their place in the world’s largest emerging crypto economy. Imagine all Chinese crypto users being able to officially register their wallets in a government database and receive 0% tax on all earnings, while businesses operating in crypto enjoy extremely low tax rates, creating one of the world’s most crypto-friendly economies. Sounds unrealistic today? It's not. Believe me. Now that the U.S. is already in action (with ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini), China will have no choice but to answer. Sounds unrealistic? It’s not. In fact, what I'm envisioning is already happening before our very own eyes. The U.S. isn’t just talking anymore. They are taking action. Regulations are shifting, capital is flowing, and new policies are laying the foundation for a crypto-driven financial system. And now, China isn’t just watching. They are opening its doors and responding. China have come up with TWO top-notch LLMs - Qwen and DeepSeek, in hopes to keep its economy competitive. You see, the world’s largest economies are competing to lead the next era of finance (and/or AI), and in the process, they’ll inevitably create a system where both thrive. If you are still unaware, we are already in the bull market. Instead of alts going parabolic, we have AI tech fighting to claim the no.1 spot of being the "Best AI Model". PS: This video is from 2018, when I was opening a business incubator in China (no pun intended).
0:59

The last and biggest bull run has started, and it is not what you think it is. It all started when China began to unban crypto 👇 You see, the U.S. is making aggressive moves to become the global crypto capital in 2025. China has yet to respond. But what if that response is a full reopening of its crypto markets? Imagine China welcoming back Binance and other major crypto firms that were forced into a global regulatory maze after the 2017 ban. Picture these companies returning home, deploying their products into the massive Chinese market—their birthplace. Imagine 1.5 billion people gaining seamless access to crypto, integrating it into their daily lives just like WeChat Pay and Alipay. Imagine Bitcoin miners returning, reestablishing China’s dominance in hash rate. Now, picture the largest middle class in the world, alongside 6.2 million dollar millionaires, starting to deploy their capital into crypto. That’s not just a bull market. it’s a true financial revolution. Imagine China’s global trade volumes and exchanges fully transitioning to crypto, requiring Bitcoin reserves to guarantee payments. Think about Chinese factories, trading companies, and banks all operating through crypto-powered financial rails, securing supply chains and accelerating transactions. Imagine China launching new credit lines for international infrastructure investments, but with a new paradigm, repayments would fuel AI and crypto infrastructure, funding national programs for data collection and exchange through crypto gateways. Imagine China granting amnesty to all past financial crime cases related to crypto, opening the floodgates for entrepreneurs, investors, and businesses to return freely, reclaiming their place in the world’s largest emerging crypto economy. Imagine all Chinese crypto users being able to officially register their wallets in a government database and receive 0% tax on all earnings, while businesses operating in crypto enjoy extremely low tax rates, creating one of the world’s most crypto-friendly economies. Sounds unrealistic today? It's not. Believe me. Now that the U.S. is already in action (with ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini), China will have no choice but to answer. Sounds unrealistic? It’s not. In fact, what I'm envisioning is already happening before our very own eyes. The U.S. isn’t just talking anymore. They are taking action. Regulations are shifting, capital is flowing, and new policies are laying the foundation for a crypto-driven financial system. And now, China isn’t just watching. They are opening its doors and responding. China have come up with TWO top-notch LLMs - Qwen and DeepSeek, in hopes to keep its economy competitive. You see, the world’s largest economies are competing to lead the next era of finance (and/or AI), and in the process, they’ll inevitably create a system where both thrive. If you are still unaware, we are already in the bull market. Instead of alts going parabolic, we have AI tech fighting to claim the no.1 spot of being the "Best AI Model". PS: This video is from 2018, when I was opening a business incubator in China (no pun intended).

Ilman Shazhaev

33,585 просмотров • 1 год назад

Walmart is selling you an unprofitable TV that watches everything you do and reports it back to their $6.4 billion advertising machine. And the TV literally won't turn on until you give them permission. This is one of the most sophisticated consumer surveillance operations in history and 150 million people walk into their stores every single week with no idea it's happening. Here's the full story: In December 2024, Walmart bought Vizio for $2.3 billion. Everyone assumed it was about selling more TVs. But it had nothing to do with TVs. Vizio's TV hardware business was actually LOSING money, posting a $6.7 million loss in its final quarter as an independent company. The advertising division made $115.8 million in profit that same quarter. Walmart bought 19 million living rooms - not a TV company. In March 2026, Walmart flipped the switch. Every new Vizio TV now requires a mandatory Walmart account before you can access any smart features. No account, no streaming apps. Without signing in, your TV is useless. The moment you create that account, something called Automatic Content Recognition activates. ACR runs silently in the background, taking screenshots of everything displayed on your screen and comparing them against a database to identify exactly what you're watching, second by second, across 700 TV networks and over 100 streaming apps. It knows what you watched, when you watched it, how long you watched it, and what you did afterward. Now here's the part that makes this genuinely unprecedented in the history of retail: Walmart ALREADY knows what 150 million Americans buy every week. They know your grocery habits, your clothing preferences, your pharmacy purchases, your financial behavior through Walmart Pay, and your location data from the app. But what they couldn't see was the 4 to 6 hours a day Americans spend staring at their television screens. By connecting your Walmart account to your Vizio TV, they've closed that loop. They can now prove that you saw a 30 second ad for gardening soil Sunday night and bought that exact brand at Walmart Monday morning. L'Oréal is already signed on as a launch partner for this kind of targeting. The math on this is just insane: Walmart Connect, their advertising arm, generated $6.4 billion last year with 46% year-over-year growth. Advertising runs at 70 to 90% profit margins compared to traditional retail's 3 to 4%. Their CFO admitted that ads and membership fees already account for one-third of Walmart's total operating income. The advertising business is now more important to Walmart's bottom line than entire product categories in their stores. And they're just getting started. Analysts calculated that Walmart's ad revenue currently represents only 1% of total sales. Amazon's ad business runs at 8% of sales. The gap between where Walmart is and where Amazon is represents roughly $50 billion in untapped advertising revenue. The Vizio deal is the bridge to get there. This is WHY they're selling certain TVs at a loss. When you break down the $2.3 billion acquisition across 19 million households, Walmart paid $121 per living room. A lifetime of behavioral viewing data from a household that also shops at Walmart is worth infinitely more than that. The cheap TV is a trojan horse. Vizio has already been fined $2.2 million by the FTC for secretly collecting viewing data on 11 million TVs without consent. The Texas Attorney General sued them for "spying on Texans." Walmart bought them anyway and made the surveillance MANDATORY. The company that built its empire promising everyday low prices is becoming the most powerful advertising platform in the world, and the TV in your living room is the entry point. What do you think?
1:46

Walmart is selling you an unprofitable TV that watches everything you do and reports it back to their $6.4 billion advertising machine. And the TV literally won't turn on until you give them permission. This is one of the most sophisticated consumer surveillance operations in history and 150 million people walk into their stores every single week with no idea it's happening. Here's the full story: In December 2024, Walmart bought Vizio for $2.3 billion. Everyone assumed it was about selling more TVs. But it had nothing to do with TVs. Vizio's TV hardware business was actually LOSING money, posting a $6.7 million loss in its final quarter as an independent company. The advertising division made $115.8 million in profit that same quarter. Walmart bought 19 million living rooms - not a TV company. In March 2026, Walmart flipped the switch. Every new Vizio TV now requires a mandatory Walmart account before you can access any smart features. No account, no streaming apps. Without signing in, your TV is useless. The moment you create that account, something called Automatic Content Recognition activates. ACR runs silently in the background, taking screenshots of everything displayed on your screen and comparing them against a database to identify exactly what you're watching, second by second, across 700 TV networks and over 100 streaming apps. It knows what you watched, when you watched it, how long you watched it, and what you did afterward. Now here's the part that makes this genuinely unprecedented in the history of retail: Walmart ALREADY knows what 150 million Americans buy every week. They know your grocery habits, your clothing preferences, your pharmacy purchases, your financial behavior through Walmart Pay, and your location data from the app. But what they couldn't see was the 4 to 6 hours a day Americans spend staring at their television screens. By connecting your Walmart account to your Vizio TV, they've closed that loop. They can now prove that you saw a 30 second ad for gardening soil Sunday night and bought that exact brand at Walmart Monday morning. L'Oréal is already signed on as a launch partner for this kind of targeting. The math on this is just insane: Walmart Connect, their advertising arm, generated $6.4 billion last year with 46% year-over-year growth. Advertising runs at 70 to 90% profit margins compared to traditional retail's 3 to 4%. Their CFO admitted that ads and membership fees already account for one-third of Walmart's total operating income. The advertising business is now more important to Walmart's bottom line than entire product categories in their stores. And they're just getting started. Analysts calculated that Walmart's ad revenue currently represents only 1% of total sales. Amazon's ad business runs at 8% of sales. The gap between where Walmart is and where Amazon is represents roughly $50 billion in untapped advertising revenue. The Vizio deal is the bridge to get there. This is WHY they're selling certain TVs at a loss. When you break down the $2.3 billion acquisition across 19 million households, Walmart paid $121 per living room. A lifetime of behavioral viewing data from a household that also shops at Walmart is worth infinitely more than that. The cheap TV is a trojan horse. Vizio has already been fined $2.2 million by the FTC for secretly collecting viewing data on 11 million TVs without consent. The Texas Attorney General sued them for "spying on Texans." Walmart bought them anyway and made the surveillance MANDATORY. The company that built its empire promising everyday low prices is becoming the most powerful advertising platform in the world, and the TV in your living room is the entry point. What do you think?

Ricardo

426,706 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

This is the majestic Victoria Falls, reduced to boulders and rocks, it is extremely painful to watch. Here, Zambian members of parliament and officials from the country’s central bank inspect the economic effects of the mighty Zambezi River drying up. Why is this important to you and me? Both Zimbabwe and Zambia rely on the Zambezi River for hydroelectricity generated at Lake Kariba, which was built by the colonial Federation of the Rhodesia and Nyasaland government in 1959. Africans must rethink where they want to go and how they will successfully get there, they desperately need good leadership to navigate their way to economic prosperity. The combined population of Zimbabwe and Zambia was 6.7 million people in 1959, today, it is 37.9 million people. Yet, both countries are still using infrastructure designed and built for just 6.7 million people, despite a population increase of 465.67%. I give credit to the Zambians for not hiding this reality, but how did we get here? There has been no substantial investment in power generation infrastructure since the two countries gained independence. This has been caused by corruption, the looting of public funds, incompetence, and general mismanagement. Countries that once had a lower GDP than Zimbabwe, like Singapore, are now light years ahead, despite having far fewer resources. What they have in abundance are capable and patriotic leaders who have put their countries ahead of looting and plunder. The Zambezi River is partly dry because of climate change, but this does not affect only Zambia and Zimbabwe, it affects the entire world, so it can't be an excuse, you evolve with new realities by developing new solutions for your country. The difference is that the rest of the succeeding world has capable leaders who have taken advantage of avant-garde technology like solar which was not yet fully developed in 1959 when Kariba hydro was built. To understand how Zimbabwe and Zambia now lag behind in power generation, which also reflects the state of their economies, Zimbabwe’s maximum power generation capacity is 2,000 megawatts, while Zambia’s is 3,200 megawatts, giving a combined total of 5,200 megawatts for both countries. In comparison, South Africa’s Limpopo province alone generates 8,700 megawatts, surpassing the combined capacity of Zambia and Zimbabwe by 3,500 megawatts. The solutions to this problem are not utopian, they are quite basic and are readily available to any serious patriotic leader or government. It simply requires investment in power generation, such as solar energy and this is being done elsewhere. Countries like Egypt and Morocco are doing this, which is why Egypt is projected to become the largest economy in Africa by 2027. You cannot grow an economy without power, it is fundamental to understand that immutable fact. Over the past decade, Egypt has invested in solar generation plants with a combined capacity of approximately 29,200 megawatts, Egypt's total installed electricity generation capacity is 59,443 megawatts. The 29,200 megawatts solar power it installed in the last ten years includes the 1,800 megawatt Benban Solar Park, 8.2 megawatts from 109 solar system plants across 13 provinces, 19,200 megawatts from renewable energy projects in 2021, and 3,200 megawatts from government projects. In 1980, Egypt’s GDP was US$20 billion, while Zimbabwe’s was US$7.5 billion. Today, Egypt’s GDP has grown to US$348 billion, while Zimbabwe’s remains at just US$23 billion. This shows the impact to an economy if a country doesn’t generate enough electricity, a country cannot grow without power, it is that simple. Despite Zimbabwe’s vast mineral wealth, it is failing to grow because of corrupt and incompetent leadership. We know Zimbabwe has a corrupt president and government, but what about Zambia? Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema inherited a battered economy with a debt of US$18.5 billion. This includes US$11.1 billion in external debt owed to international creditors and US$7.4 billion in domestic debt owed to local institutions. However, Hichilema made a significant error, he failed to effectively communicate these economic challenges to ordinary Zambian citizens because he appointed a hopelessly incompetent information minister, prioritising loyalty over competence. As a result, a discredited former president like Edgar Lungu has real prospects of returning to power, as Hichilema failed to explain that fixing Lungu’s mess would make things tougher before they improve. He is still failing to explain in simple terms that Lungu’s massive debt needed to be restructured and paid before the economy could improve, and that Lungu’s debt was inflated by the looting of public funds, similar to how his ally, Zimbabwean tyrant Emmerson Mnangagwa, uses infrastructure projects like road refurbishment to siphon public resources. If Hichilema loses the election due to the tougher economic environment, it will be his own fault for not effectively communicating with the people about the economic reality he got from Lungu. There were so many opportunities that Hichilema could have seized, especially given the international goodwill he enjoys. However, a combination of arrogance and surrounding himself with unimaginative and incompetent individuals has exacerbated his problems. Both Zambia and Zimbabwe are experiencing 20-hour power cuts because of their failure to invest adequately in power generation over the years. Until they realise that they are relying on a 65-year-old hydroelectric utility designed for only 6.7 million people, despite now having a combined population of 37.9 million, they will continue to suffer from severe power shortages and their economies will remain stagnant because investors need reliable uninterrupted electric power. How can any serious investor go to a country with 20 hours of daily power cuts when they want to run factories that require power 24/7? Their continued failures will give credence to racists like Ian Smith, who claimed that blacks were not yet ready to govern themselves. Yet, we know there are African countries like Rwanda where blacks are governing themselves well. Without power, Zimbabwe and Zambia will remain rag tag economies, and it is time they realise that they must look beyond Kariba and invest in massive power generation. The time for complacency has passed for both Zimbabwe and Zambia. The two countries must recognise that their over-reliance on outdated infrastructure built in 1959 is unsustainable, especially considering their populations have grown by over 465 per cent since that infrastructure was established by the colonial government. To attract serious local and foreign investors and secure economic growth, they need to move towards innovative solutions like solar energy. The world is advancing daily, and without a commitment to modern power generation, both countries risk remaining stagnant, constrained by their own political leadership failures authored through corruption and staggering incompetence. The clarion call to action is very clear for both countries dubbed the siamese twins of Southern Africa. They must invest in the future, embrace technological change, and ensure that the potential of their vast resources is realised for the benefit of their people, rather than for a few corrupt and politically connected individuals. The Zambian president must also understand the importance of communication in this new world of social media and not rely on outdated methods. If he fails to engage with Zambians, the dangerous prospect of a ZANUPF funded Edgar Lungu being elected will become increasingly likely with each passing day. If you want to privately engage me on any issues in this article, email me at hopewell2@post.harvard.edu as I might miss social media inboxes.
2:39

This is the majestic Victoria Falls, reduced to boulders and rocks, it is extremely painful to watch. Here, Zambian members of parliament and officials from the country’s central bank inspect the economic effects of the mighty Zambezi River drying up. Why is this important to you and me? Both Zimbabwe and Zambia rely on the Zambezi River for hydroelectricity generated at Lake Kariba, which was built by the colonial Federation of the Rhodesia and Nyasaland government in 1959. Africans must rethink where they want to go and how they will successfully get there, they desperately need good leadership to navigate their way to economic prosperity. The combined population of Zimbabwe and Zambia was 6.7 million people in 1959, today, it is 37.9 million people. Yet, both countries are still using infrastructure designed and built for just 6.7 million people, despite a population increase of 465.67%. I give credit to the Zambians for not hiding this reality, but how did we get here? There has been no substantial investment in power generation infrastructure since the two countries gained independence. This has been caused by corruption, the looting of public funds, incompetence, and general mismanagement. Countries that once had a lower GDP than Zimbabwe, like Singapore, are now light years ahead, despite having far fewer resources. What they have in abundance are capable and patriotic leaders who have put their countries ahead of looting and plunder. The Zambezi River is partly dry because of climate change, but this does not affect only Zambia and Zimbabwe, it affects the entire world, so it can't be an excuse, you evolve with new realities by developing new solutions for your country. The difference is that the rest of the succeeding world has capable leaders who have taken advantage of avant-garde technology like solar which was not yet fully developed in 1959 when Kariba hydro was built. To understand how Zimbabwe and Zambia now lag behind in power generation, which also reflects the state of their economies, Zimbabwe’s maximum power generation capacity is 2,000 megawatts, while Zambia’s is 3,200 megawatts, giving a combined total of 5,200 megawatts for both countries. In comparison, South Africa’s Limpopo province alone generates 8,700 megawatts, surpassing the combined capacity of Zambia and Zimbabwe by 3,500 megawatts. The solutions to this problem are not utopian, they are quite basic and are readily available to any serious patriotic leader or government. It simply requires investment in power generation, such as solar energy and this is being done elsewhere. Countries like Egypt and Morocco are doing this, which is why Egypt is projected to become the largest economy in Africa by 2027. You cannot grow an economy without power, it is fundamental to understand that immutable fact. Over the past decade, Egypt has invested in solar generation plants with a combined capacity of approximately 29,200 megawatts, Egypt's total installed electricity generation capacity is 59,443 megawatts. The 29,200 megawatts solar power it installed in the last ten years includes the 1,800 megawatt Benban Solar Park, 8.2 megawatts from 109 solar system plants across 13 provinces, 19,200 megawatts from renewable energy projects in 2021, and 3,200 megawatts from government projects. In 1980, Egypt’s GDP was US$20 billion, while Zimbabwe’s was US$7.5 billion. Today, Egypt’s GDP has grown to US$348 billion, while Zimbabwe’s remains at just US$23 billion. This shows the impact to an economy if a country doesn’t generate enough electricity, a country cannot grow without power, it is that simple. Despite Zimbabwe’s vast mineral wealth, it is failing to grow because of corrupt and incompetent leadership. We know Zimbabwe has a corrupt president and government, but what about Zambia? Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema inherited a battered economy with a debt of US$18.5 billion. This includes US$11.1 billion in external debt owed to international creditors and US$7.4 billion in domestic debt owed to local institutions. However, Hichilema made a significant error, he failed to effectively communicate these economic challenges to ordinary Zambian citizens because he appointed a hopelessly incompetent information minister, prioritising loyalty over competence. As a result, a discredited former president like Edgar Lungu has real prospects of returning to power, as Hichilema failed to explain that fixing Lungu’s mess would make things tougher before they improve. He is still failing to explain in simple terms that Lungu’s massive debt needed to be restructured and paid before the economy could improve, and that Lungu’s debt was inflated by the looting of public funds, similar to how his ally, Zimbabwean tyrant Emmerson Mnangagwa, uses infrastructure projects like road refurbishment to siphon public resources. If Hichilema loses the election due to the tougher economic environment, it will be his own fault for not effectively communicating with the people about the economic reality he got from Lungu. There were so many opportunities that Hichilema could have seized, especially given the international goodwill he enjoys. However, a combination of arrogance and surrounding himself with unimaginative and incompetent individuals has exacerbated his problems. Both Zambia and Zimbabwe are experiencing 20-hour power cuts because of their failure to invest adequately in power generation over the years. Until they realise that they are relying on a 65-year-old hydroelectric utility designed for only 6.7 million people, despite now having a combined population of 37.9 million, they will continue to suffer from severe power shortages and their economies will remain stagnant because investors need reliable uninterrupted electric power. How can any serious investor go to a country with 20 hours of daily power cuts when they want to run factories that require power 24/7? Their continued failures will give credence to racists like Ian Smith, who claimed that blacks were not yet ready to govern themselves. Yet, we know there are African countries like Rwanda where blacks are governing themselves well. Without power, Zimbabwe and Zambia will remain rag tag economies, and it is time they realise that they must look beyond Kariba and invest in massive power generation. The time for complacency has passed for both Zimbabwe and Zambia. The two countries must recognise that their over-reliance on outdated infrastructure built in 1959 is unsustainable, especially considering their populations have grown by over 465 per cent since that infrastructure was established by the colonial government. To attract serious local and foreign investors and secure economic growth, they need to move towards innovative solutions like solar energy. The world is advancing daily, and without a commitment to modern power generation, both countries risk remaining stagnant, constrained by their own political leadership failures authored through corruption and staggering incompetence. The clarion call to action is very clear for both countries dubbed the siamese twins of Southern Africa. They must invest in the future, embrace technological change, and ensure that the potential of their vast resources is realised for the benefit of their people, rather than for a few corrupt and politically connected individuals. The Zambian president must also understand the importance of communication in this new world of social media and not rely on outdated methods. If he fails to engage with Zambians, the dangerous prospect of a ZANUPF funded Edgar Lungu being elected will become increasingly likely with each passing day. If you want to privately engage me on any issues in this article, email me at [email protected] as I might miss social media inboxes.

Hopewell Chin’ono

183,229 просмотров • 1 год назад

How to quickly deter China from invading Taiwan — my interview with Ethan Thornton of Mach Industries Ethan is one of the brightest, most thoughtful people I've ever met. I believe his ideas on defending the US, including our interests in Taiwan, are urgently needed. Summary 👇 The US would likely lose a military conflict with China in Taiwan and other crucial areas in the Pacific—even though we spend far more money than China does. • We face a vastly underrated economic threat (not to mention human rights) if we cannot deter China from seizing Taiwan. • China has published plans to have military readiness for a Taiwan invasion by 2027. • We depend on Taiwan for almost all high-performance semi-conductors, which are at the base of all modern industry. • Taiwan had made clear as a deterrent that it’s prepared to destroy its semiconductor facilities in the event of an invasion, but China’s increasing semiconductor manufacturing makes the threat worse for the US than China. • It’s now an open secret that the US loses most or all of its wargames in a conflict with China over Taiwan, Japan, or South Korea. • How our Navy loses to China: If we can get our ships to the Pacific, we’ll quickly run out of ammo, but the more likely scenario is that our ships—including aircraft carriers—mostly don’t get there thanks to unmanned systems and hypersonics. • How our Air Force loses to China: The Air Force has limited planes and even more limited munitions, but the increasingly bigger problem is the planes won’t take off thanks to China’s hypersonic missiles and other unmanned systems that can destroy available runways in the Pacific. • How our Army loses to China: The Army is still planning to rely on tanks, rifles, and the fighting styles of the 2010s, even though Ukraine has shown ground wars depend on drones and other mobile, decentralized, difficult-to-target assets. Example: Ukraine is actually refusing to bring gifted M1 Abrams tanks to the front line as they would be quickly destroyed by drones. • The US’s failure to have an unequivocally superior military to China is not a funding issue, given that the US spends some 3 times on defense what China does. It’s an issue of how money is spent. US weapons procurement has been fundamentally stagnant for 30 years while war has rapidly evolved based on unmanned systems. • The US’s extreme military vulnerability to China is due to us mostly spending money on the wrong things given how war has evolved. We’re still basically procuring the same weapons we were 30 years ago. • The most important evolution in warfighting is unmanned systems, which are powerful but cheap and thus scalable and decentralizable. • Large numbers of unmanned weapons distributed widely make large, expensive, centralized assets increasingly vulnerable (non-survivable). • Large numbers of unmanned weapons distributed widely are hard to counter since just some of them need to survive in order to inflict huge damage. • Yet our trillion-dollar defense budget is largely spent on manned systems that are very unlikely to survive a real conflict. • Even insofar as the US is procuring unmanned systems, its rate of evolution is way too slow. Unmanned systems evolve like consumer electronics, yet we have long procurement cycles (more than 5 times slower than China’s). To address the China threat we need to take advantage of our innovativeness to create stockpile of superior, strategic unmanned weapons systems that will deter them. • We cannot win a protracted war against China, given their superiority in manufacturing, and we don’t want such a war. But we can and want to deter them from attacking Taiwan, which controls the high-performance semiconductors our economy depends on. • Our big advantage is over China that we are better at innovating than China due to our political system and culture. They can make things at much larger scales, but we are much better at inventing new things. • The US’s superior innovation ability means that we can make superior weapons with huge cost-performance asymmetry compared to China’s. • These weapons need to be Strategic: can cripple China’s ability to wage war. (Ethan elaborates) • Given the time it takes to make weapons systems and the speed at which wars now start and end, we need to create a large stockpile of unmanned weapons systems—think tends of thousands—to deter China. If government procures weapons using standards of cost-effectiveness this can be done very cheaply. Government weapons spending must move as quickly as possible toward the standards of cost-effectiveness, scalability, and survivability. • Big picture, US weapons spending and procurement needs explicit standards to decide what to invest in. • Fundamentally the standard of weapons procurement must be cost-effectiveness: How much does it cost to have a given amount of effect in the expected environment? • Part of cost-effectiveness is scalability: We need to be able to produce sufficient units now and in an ongoing conflict. • Part of cost-effectiveness is survivability: Our weapons systems need to be able to by pass or handle enemy interference, which most legacy systems can’t. • If government can start allocating even $10 billion by these standards we can afford to build the stockpile superior unmanned weapons systems that will deter China from invading Taiwan.
1:08:04

How to quickly deter China from invading Taiwan — my interview with Ethan Thornton of Mach Industries Ethan is one of the brightest, most thoughtful people I've ever met. I believe his ideas on defending the US, including our interests in Taiwan, are urgently needed. Summary 👇 The US would likely lose a military conflict with China in Taiwan and other crucial areas in the Pacific—even though we spend far more money than China does. • We face a vastly underrated economic threat (not to mention human rights) if we cannot deter China from seizing Taiwan. • China has published plans to have military readiness for a Taiwan invasion by 2027. • We depend on Taiwan for almost all high-performance semi-conductors, which are at the base of all modern industry. • Taiwan had made clear as a deterrent that it’s prepared to destroy its semiconductor facilities in the event of an invasion, but China’s increasing semiconductor manufacturing makes the threat worse for the US than China. • It’s now an open secret that the US loses most or all of its wargames in a conflict with China over Taiwan, Japan, or South Korea. • How our Navy loses to China: If we can get our ships to the Pacific, we’ll quickly run out of ammo, but the more likely scenario is that our ships—including aircraft carriers—mostly don’t get there thanks to unmanned systems and hypersonics. • How our Air Force loses to China: The Air Force has limited planes and even more limited munitions, but the increasingly bigger problem is the planes won’t take off thanks to China’s hypersonic missiles and other unmanned systems that can destroy available runways in the Pacific. • How our Army loses to China: The Army is still planning to rely on tanks, rifles, and the fighting styles of the 2010s, even though Ukraine has shown ground wars depend on drones and other mobile, decentralized, difficult-to-target assets. Example: Ukraine is actually refusing to bring gifted M1 Abrams tanks to the front line as they would be quickly destroyed by drones. • The US’s failure to have an unequivocally superior military to China is not a funding issue, given that the US spends some 3 times on defense what China does. It’s an issue of how money is spent. US weapons procurement has been fundamentally stagnant for 30 years while war has rapidly evolved based on unmanned systems. • The US’s extreme military vulnerability to China is due to us mostly spending money on the wrong things given how war has evolved. We’re still basically procuring the same weapons we were 30 years ago. • The most important evolution in warfighting is unmanned systems, which are powerful but cheap and thus scalable and decentralizable. • Large numbers of unmanned weapons distributed widely make large, expensive, centralized assets increasingly vulnerable (non-survivable). • Large numbers of unmanned weapons distributed widely are hard to counter since just some of them need to survive in order to inflict huge damage. • Yet our trillion-dollar defense budget is largely spent on manned systems that are very unlikely to survive a real conflict. • Even insofar as the US is procuring unmanned systems, its rate of evolution is way too slow. Unmanned systems evolve like consumer electronics, yet we have long procurement cycles (more than 5 times slower than China’s). To address the China threat we need to take advantage of our innovativeness to create stockpile of superior, strategic unmanned weapons systems that will deter them. • We cannot win a protracted war against China, given their superiority in manufacturing, and we don’t want such a war. But we can and want to deter them from attacking Taiwan, which controls the high-performance semiconductors our economy depends on. • Our big advantage is over China that we are better at innovating than China due to our political system and culture. They can make things at much larger scales, but we are much better at inventing new things. • The US’s superior innovation ability means that we can make superior weapons with huge cost-performance asymmetry compared to China’s. • These weapons need to be Strategic: can cripple China’s ability to wage war. (Ethan elaborates) • Given the time it takes to make weapons systems and the speed at which wars now start and end, we need to create a large stockpile of unmanned weapons systems—think tends of thousands—to deter China. If government procures weapons using standards of cost-effectiveness this can be done very cheaply. Government weapons spending must move as quickly as possible toward the standards of cost-effectiveness, scalability, and survivability. • Big picture, US weapons spending and procurement needs explicit standards to decide what to invest in. • Fundamentally the standard of weapons procurement must be cost-effectiveness: How much does it cost to have a given amount of effect in the expected environment? • Part of cost-effectiveness is scalability: We need to be able to produce sufficient units now and in an ongoing conflict. • Part of cost-effectiveness is survivability: Our weapons systems need to be able to by pass or handle enemy interference, which most legacy systems can’t. • If government can start allocating even $10 billion by these standards we can afford to build the stockpile superior unmanned weapons systems that will deter China from invading Taiwan.

Alex Epstein

175,218 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад