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When interest payments on the national debt eclipse defense spending, history shows that great powers struggle to maintain military strength and global influence. As US debt service surpasses defense outlays for the first time since the 1930s, Ferguson's Law offers a stark warning about the fiscal foundations of American... show more

Hoover Institution

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Sanctions can advance US foreign policy and national security objectives, but effective employment requires intelligence, coordination, and an effort to avoid historical pitfalls. Watch a new Unarchived, based on the work of Hoover Senior Fellow H.R. McMaster:

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"Any great power that spends more on interest payments on its debt than on defence will not be great for long." Niall Ferguson explains at ARC 2025 that worryingly the US now falls into this category and that this "sends a signal of weakness" to the "axis of ill will".

"Any great power that spends more on interest payments on its debt than on defence will not be great for long." Niall Ferguson explains at ARC 2025 that worryingly the US now falls into this category and that this "sends a signal of weakness" to the "axis of ill will".

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Trump's presidency exposes recurring patterns across American and global history—McKinley's protectionist turn, the Gilded Age's social divides, and Britain's interwar decline—revealing how each generation of leaders confronts the same challenge: preserving national strength without repeating the excesses that undo great powers. Hoover Senior Fellow Niall Ferguson at Summer Policy Boot Camp [1/3]:

Trump's presidency exposes recurring patterns across American and global history—McKinley's protectionist turn, the Gilded Age's social divides, and Britain's interwar decline—revealing how each generation of leaders confronts the same challenge: preserving national strength without repeating the excesses that undo great powers. Hoover Senior Fellow Niall Ferguson at Summer Policy Boot Camp [1/3]:

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🚨"The Federal Government today pays more in interest on the debt than we do in budget for the Department of Defense. We pay $1.2B a year in JUST interest on debt. Total government spending is about $7T. Interest payments are $1.2T. DOD is $800B a year. Total debt is $35T and it adds another $1T of debt every 100 days."

🚨"The Federal Government today pays more in interest on the debt than we do in budget for the Department of Defense. We pay $1.2B a year in JUST interest on debt. Total government spending is about $7T. Interest payments are $1.2T. DOD is $800B a year. Total debt is $35T and it adds another $1T of debt every 100 days."

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🇺🇸 ELON: AMERICA IS ON A PATH TO BANKRUPTCY “Government spending is bankrupting the country. Our interest payments on the national debt now exceed the Defense Department budget. The Defense Department budget is like a trillion dollars a year. Interest payments on national debt are now higher and growing every month. America's on a path to bankruptcy, so we have to cut government spending, or we're just going to go bankrupt, just like a person would that overspends.” Source: Interview with Joe Rogan, November 2024

🇺🇸 ELON: AMERICA IS ON A PATH TO BANKRUPTCY “Government spending is bankrupting the country. Our interest payments on the national debt now exceed the Defense Department budget. The Defense Department budget is like a trillion dollars a year. Interest payments on national debt are now higher and growing every month. America's on a path to bankruptcy, so we have to cut government spending, or we're just going to go bankrupt, just like a person would that overspends.” Source: Interview with Joe Rogan, November 2024

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ELON MUSK: "I think in the absence of AI and robotics, we're actually totally screwed, because the national debt is piling up like crazy. Our interest payments on the national debt exceed the military budget, which is a trillion dollars. Over a trillion dollars just the interest payments. We are 1,000% going to go bankrupt as a country and fail as a country without AI and robots, nothing else will solve the national debt."

ELON MUSK: "I think in the absence of AI and robotics, we're actually totally screwed, because the national debt is piling up like crazy. Our interest payments on the national debt exceed the military budget, which is a trillion dollars. Over a trillion dollars just the interest payments. We are 1,000% going to go bankrupt as a country and fail as a country without AI and robots, nothing else will solve the national debt."

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My take on Wealthion on the EXPLODING US NATIONAL DEBT: "22.2% of American taxes are siphoned off to pay interest on the government’s debt. They don't go to income transfer payments, gov't services, or subsidies." INTEREST ON DEBT = PAYING TAXES AND RECEIVING NOTHING.

My take on Wealthion on the EXPLODING US NATIONAL DEBT: "22.2% of American taxes are siphoned off to pay interest on the government’s debt. They don't go to income transfer payments, gov't services, or subsidies." INTEREST ON DEBT = PAYING TAXES AND RECEIVING NOTHING.

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ELON: OUR NATIONAL DEBT IS A DISASTER “What really matters is that government spending is not far in excess of government revenue. That's a fundamental issue that we have where we have a deficit of $2 trillion and we have interest payments that now exceed the entire budget of the military. In fact, that was a big wake-up call for me was when the amount of money that we pay in national debt interest exceeded the Defense Department budget. And the Defense Department budget is very big and interest is higher than that and climbing. That's a disaster.” Source: Town Hall in Wisconsin, March 30, 2025

ELON: OUR NATIONAL DEBT IS A DISASTER “What really matters is that government spending is not far in excess of government revenue. That's a fundamental issue that we have where we have a deficit of $2 trillion and we have interest payments that now exceed the entire budget of the military. In fact, that was a big wake-up call for me was when the amount of money that we pay in national debt interest exceeded the Defense Department budget. And the Defense Department budget is very big and interest is higher than that and climbing. That's a disaster.” Source: Town Hall in Wisconsin, March 30, 2025

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The debt passed $39 trillion today. Paying a trillion dollars of interest annually on this debt causes hardship for tax-payers and robs us of resources that could otherwise be used for infrastructure or national defense. And ultimately, this debt will enslave our grandchildren.

The debt passed $39 trillion today. Paying a trillion dollars of interest annually on this debt causes hardship for tax-payers and robs us of resources that could otherwise be used for infrastructure or national defense. And ultimately, this debt will enslave our grandchildren.

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🇺🇸 ELON: AMERICA’S LIVING ON BORROWED TIME Elon Musk: "The interest payments on US debt this year exceeded the entire defense department's spending. If this continues, all of the federal government taxes will simply be paying the interest. We've gotta reduce the spending, and we've gotta live within our means." Source: Mindovermatter

🇺🇸 ELON: AMERICA’S LIVING ON BORROWED TIME Elon Musk: "The interest payments on US debt this year exceeded the entire defense department's spending. If this continues, all of the federal government taxes will simply be paying the interest. We've gotta reduce the spending, and we've gotta live within our means." Source: Mindovermatter

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ELON MUSK: "The interest that we owe on our national debt is now higher than the defense budget. Over a trillion dollars and growing. The country is going to go bankrupt. That's why we need the Department of Government Efficiency. D.O.G.E on a brass plaque on a desk."

ELON MUSK: "The interest that we owe on our national debt is now higher than the defense budget. Over a trillion dollars and growing. The country is going to go bankrupt. That's why we need the Department of Government Efficiency. D.O.G.E on a brass plaque on a desk."

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