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While everyone is crying, Zuck has gone all in on $AMD. Llama runs inferences exclusively on $AMD MI300X. This deal shows $AMD has an edge in inference over $NVDA, which will be a much larger market than training.

170,180 просмотров • 1 год назад •via X (Twitter)

Комментарии: 10

Фото профиля Rob
Rob1 год назад

‘All in’ is extremely misleading. He’s using the chips for part of his business. I’m quite heavily invested too so I want it to perform but this is just not right.

Фото профиля Antonio Linares
Antonio Linares1 год назад

You think that using a chip exclusively for inference across all the apps is a small feat I see...

Фото профиля Welcoming Wealth
Welcoming Wealth1 год назад

The $META and $AMD "partnership" is just another reason to be bullish on the company. Lisa and Zuck are hell of a duo.

Фото профиля STONKS
STONKS1 год назад

Dude, just stop, please stop.

Фото профиля Steff Peeters
Steff Peeters1 год назад

Investing in AI is great, let’s just hope that $META and co finds enough added revenue to pay for these investments.

Фото профиля Antonio Linares
Antonio Linares1 год назад

It's literally skyrocketing the engagement on the apps

Фото профиля Don Merrifield Jr. 🇨🇦🇺🇦
Don Merrifield Jr. 🇨🇦🇺🇦1 год назад

$NVDA $AMD

Фото профиля Royal Tesla
Royal Tesla1 год назад

$NVDA chips are quite expensive. Hyperscalers trying to find a way to reduce costs and have more efficiency. $AMD offers a perfect alternative

Фото профиля DROCK STOCKS
DROCK STOCKS1 год назад

$AMD to $500-1000 by 2030.

Фото профиля JHKim
JHKim1 год назад

Can't NVDA chips be used for inferencing as well? and if inferencing market is going to be larger, I'm sure Jensen already knows that, don't you think? Don't you think NVDA already has something prepared or preparing for inferencing market?

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$AMD $620/share is too conservative for 2026 🧵 Some quick facts before I dive into this super long thread: $META allocated 42% GPUs to $AMD and 58% to $NVDA OpenAI allocated 6GW(38%) to $AMD and 10GW to $NVDA My $620 PT below by end of 2026 was only for 10-15% market share. I believe $AMD is going to have much much higher market share than I projected. The AI accelerator market is exploding, projected to reach $500 billion by 2028(is now heading $1Tril), driven by insatiable demand for training and inference compute in large language models (LLMs), recommendation systems, and autonomous systems. Nvidia ($NVDA) has long held a stranglehold, commanding over 90% market share through its CUDA ecosystem and superior rack-scale solutions. However, AMD is mounting a formidable challenge, leveraging cost advantages, open-source software momentum, and hyperscaler partnerships to erode Nvidia's moat. Recent deals—such as Meta's ($META) allocation of 42% of its GPU capacity to AMD and OpenAI's commitment to 6GW of AMD compute (versus 10GW for Nvidia)—signal a tipping point. At the forefront is AMD's Instinct MI450 series, a next-generation AI GPU slated for H2 2026 launch, which promises "no-excuses" leadership in training, inference, and distributed workloads. This analysis dissects how AMD will capture more market share and why hyperscalers like $Meta , xAI , Oracle , and others are poised to become voracious buyers of the MI450. AMD's AI GPU revenue has surged from negligible levels in 2022 to an estimated $4-5 billion in 2025, capturing ~6% of the data center GPU market. This growth stems from the Instinct MI300X, which offers 141GB of HBM3 memory and competitive FP8/FP16 performance at 20-30% lower cost than Nvidia's H100. Hyperscalers, facing NVIDIA 's overcharging, have turned to AMD for diversification. Meta, for instance, plans 600,000 H100-equivalent GPUs by end-2024, with ~42% (or 250,000+ units) sourced from AMD's MI300 series for inference tasks like image editing and AI assistants. Similarly, OpenAI's recent multi-year deal commits to 6GW of AMD compute—equivalent to ~300,000-400,000 MI450 GPUs—starting with 1GW in 2026, explicitly to counterbalance its 10GW Nvidia allocation. These aren't one-offs. Microsoft Azure, Amazon AWS, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) have integrated MI300X for AI workloads, with Oracle deploying 30,000 MI355X units in zettascale clusters. xAI, Elon Musk Musk's AI venture, ran 30% of Grok-1's production traffic on MI300X GPUs and has confirmed ongoing purchases. Collectively, these partners represent over $400 billion in projected AI infrastructure spend through 2028, with AMD targeting up to 40% market share. For those that subscribed, I wrote a specific thread on how AMD "secret weapon" is going to change the game in 2026 with an improved designs on all its products, yes AMD has patent on it. Software is the linchpin. AMD's ROCm platform, once derided as "half-baked," now supports day-zero integration for Llama-4, DeepSeek V3, and GPT-OSS models—closing the CUDA gap. Benchmarks show MI355X (MI450 precursor) outperforming Nvidia's B200 in inference by 1.5-2x on memory-bound tasks, at 25-35% lower TCO. For training, MI450's rack-scale IF128 configuration (128 GPUs, 1.4 PB/s intra-rack bandwidth) rivals Nvidia's VR200 NVL144, enabling clusters like xAI's Colossus (scaling to 1M GPUs). My below thread projected Etimated conservative FY 25 revenue: $34-$36B Estimated conservative FY 26 revenue: $55B-$62B Below is why $AMD is revenue is going to be much higher after OpenAI deal. 1. OpenAI 1GW in 2026. With high demand for MI355X at $30,000k+ per unit, with MI450 is likely to be sold in the $45k-$55k. We can safely calcuate 1GW would require roughly 400,000 MI450 GPUs. or Roughly ~$20B revenue in 2026 alone from OpenAI. That would mean $AMD would hit $56B just from one partnership(OpenAI) in 2026 2. $META, the biggest spender on AI Infrastructure right now, Daddy Zuckerberg bought 250,000+ MI300, and is buying MI355X for recommendation engines and Llama training. It is very unlikely for Daddy Zuck to slow down AMD Chips, due to its Inference superiority to NVDA Chips. Most likely we will see at least 300,000-400,000 MI355X ordered from now toward end of H1 2025. And another 300,000-500,000 MI450 by H2 2025. Or ~$20B from just Meta in H2 alone, excluded H1. 3. xAI : Musk confirmed "AMD GPUs work very well" for Grok's small/medium models, with 30% of Grok-1 on MI300X. xAI's Colossus (200K+ GPUs, targeting 1M) and Oracle partnership (via OCI's MI355X cluster) position it for MI450 trials in H1 2026. With $6B funding and Grok integration into Oracle services, xAI could allocate 10-20% ($10B-$15B) to MI450 for distributed inference. We haven't heard the detail from Daddy Elon Musk yet, but most likely not going to be spending less than OpenAI or Sam Altman 4. Oracle ($ORCL): A multi-billion-dollar MI355X deal powers OCI's AI superclusters, with $500B+ remaining performance obligations. Larry Ellison's zettascale ambitions and xAI/OpenAI integrations make Oracle a MI450 anchor tenant—projected 50-100k units ($15B+ spend) for enterprise AI platforms. $ORCL is likely to spend more on the new "secret weapon" due to its capability in AI inference and cost advantage for $500B backlog. 5. Others ( Microsoft , Amazon , Saudi+other countries): Microsoft (Azure MI300X for training) and Amazon ($148B 15-year spend) test MI450 via Stargate ($500B with Oracle/SoftBank). Emerging buyers like G42 (5GW UAE campus), Crusoe, and Hot Aisle add 5-10GW demand. These potentially would add $15B-$30B in 2026 alone. We also need to factor in $TSM supply constraint( $NVDA is TSMC favorite), so $AMD market cap/growth is being tamed by TSMC. So what are you saying Mike, well $AMD 2026 revenue could hit $90-$100B by end of 2026 or nearly 185% growth YoYo. So what does that mean for valuation? I have no idea how Mr. Market gonna value AMD in 2026 with 3 digits growth. My Conservative $620 was my best projection until today with OpenAI partnership. I'm telling you as one of the biggest AMD bull, that I will leave it to "smart money" and other investors to do the price discovery while I'm chilling and writing DDs daily. Lastly, AMD's MI450 isn't hype—it's a calibrated strike at Nvidia's vulnerabilities, amplified by hyperscaler bets like Meta's 42% allocation and OpenAI's 6GW lifeline. By prioritizing inference efficiency, rack-scale innovation, and open ecosystems, AMD will siphon 10-15% share in 2026, scaling to 20%+ as TCO trumps CUDA loyalty. Meta, xAI, Oracle et al. aren't passive; they're active co-designers, betting billions on MI450 to fuel AGI pursuits without Nvidia's premium. For investors, this is AMD's inflection Per Dr. Lisa Su Not Financial Advice!

Mike

711,006 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад

$AMD $NVDA & the AMD Bear SemiAnalysis 🧵 Here are some facts: $META allocated 42% AI GPUs to $AMD OpenAI allocated 6GW(38%) to $AMD 1. Model-Specific Bias: Llama 3.3 70B graph favored NVIDIA due to TRT-LLM optimizations, highlighting throughput and latency where Blackwell excels. In contrast, the GPT-OSS 120B chart shifts focus to cost and interactivity, where MI355X shines. This selective model choice clearly suggests SemiAnalysis tailors benchmarks to reinforce narratives—NVIDIA’s dominance in speed (Llama 3.3) and AMD’s niche in cost (GPT-OSS). GPT-OSS 120B, with its sparse attention mechanisms (similar to DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp), shows AMD’s CDNA 4 architecture, while Llama 3.3’s dense attention favors NVIDIA’s Tensor Cores. SemiAnalysis’ decision to emphasize Llama 3.3 initially could reflect its AMD bear stance. 2. The way Data is presented The Llama 3.3 graph focused on raw performance metrics (throughput vs. latency), downplaying cost, where AMD holds an edge. This new chart, buried in follow-up posts, reveals AMD’s strength but receives less prominence, suggesting a curated narrative. Labeling variability (e.g., B200 with/without TRT) and the lack of uniform scaling across graphs indicate potential cherry-picking of configurations to favor NVIDIA’s optimized setups. 3. Historical Context: SemiAnalysis’ past critiques of AMD’s R&D and ROCm (web results from May 2025) align with a bearish outlook. Their own hype/brand around NVIDIA’s 15x ROI contrasts with muted coverage of AMD’s cost advantages, reinforcing bias. Despite AMD’s participation in InferenceMAX, the benchmark’s framing (e.g., prioritizing Blackwell’s ROI) reflect SemiAnalysis’ market predictions rather than balanced analysis. Lastly, AMD’s Instinct MI355X proves superior in inference and cost per million tokens for the GPT-OSS 120B model, offering a 25% cost advantage over NVIDIA’s H200 at moderate-to-high interactivity levels. This efficiency, driven by AMD’s memory bandwidth and FP4 support, makes it a better choice for cost-sensitive, multi-user deployments over a three-year horizon. However, SemiAnalysis’ sole focus(presentation graph) on Llama 3.3—where NVIDIA excels demonstrates a pattern of cherry-picking models and data to favor NVIDIA , consistent with its historical AMD bearish stance. This selective presentation risks misleading stakeholders by overshadowing AMD economic strengths. My personal take: I would trust Dr. Lisa Su, and Greg Brockman Sam Altman take on AMD and how they viewed and allocated 6GW for AMD over SemiAnalysis . At the end of the day, Large customers pay when it works. $Meta allocated 42% AI GPUs to $AMD for a reason. And the "secret weapon" will improve energy consumption by 20-50%, meaning at 6GW, OpenAI would be able to deploy 25-50% more MI450 at a much better cost advantage, higher memory bandwidth, and the queen of Inference! Oh and ROCm 8 is expected to be on par with CUDA in 2026.

Mike

104,194 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад