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🇨🇳🇮🇷 While global shipping's frozen and oil's stuck, Iran's reportedly loading more crude than pre-war. 2.1M barrels in the last 6 days (up from ~2M avg), all via shadow fleet tankers mostly headed to China. Everyone else? Paralyzed. Iran's threats keep the strait locked for others, but their oil... show more

Mario Nawfal

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🚨🇮🇷🇨🇳 Iran is snarling up the Strait of Hormuz, choking almost 25% of global oil traffic and rattling markets, while still sending massive volumes of crude to China. Tehran has exported around 11.7 million barrels of crude to China since the war began, proving it can disrupt global energy flows and profit from the chaos at the same time. Source: Al Jazeera

🚨🇮🇷🇨🇳 Iran is snarling up the Strait of Hormuz, choking almost 25% of global oil traffic and rattling markets, while still sending massive volumes of crude to China. Tehran has exported around 11.7 million barrels of crude to China since the war began, proving it can disrupt global energy flows and profit from the chaos at the same time. Source: Al Jazeera

Mario Nawfal

499,679 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

🚢 Three Oil Supertankers Cross Hormuz 🔹Bloomberg reported Friday that two Chinese supertankers and one Greek vessel crossed the Strait of Hormuz with 6 million barrels of oil in total— the biggest day of oil exits through Hormuz since the war caused traffic to all but halt six weeks ago. 🔹The two Chinese vessels — the Cospearl Lake and the He Rong Hai — loaded their crude in Saudi Arabia and Iraq respectively, while the Greek tanker Serifos loaded in Saudi Arabia and was signaling Malacca, Malaysia as its destination. 🔹None carry Iranian oil or have direct links to Iran, per Bloomberg. More than 800 freighters remain stuck inside the Persian Gulf, and daily total crossings including cargo and tankers remain in single digits against a prewar average of 135 daily crossings.

🚢 Three Oil Supertankers Cross Hormuz 🔹Bloomberg reported Friday that two Chinese supertankers and one Greek vessel crossed the Strait of Hormuz with 6 million barrels of oil in total— the biggest day of oil exits through Hormuz since the war caused traffic to all but halt six weeks ago. 🔹The two Chinese vessels — the Cospearl Lake and the He Rong Hai — loaded their crude in Saudi Arabia and Iraq respectively, while the Greek tanker Serifos loaded in Saudi Arabia and was signaling Malacca, Malaysia as its destination. 🔹None carry Iranian oil or have direct links to Iran, per Bloomberg. More than 800 freighters remain stuck inside the Persian Gulf, and daily total crossings including cargo and tankers remain in single digits against a prewar average of 135 daily crossings.

Drop Site

69,303 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The war made Iran richer and your groceries more expensive Dow just doubled its April price hike on polyethylene, the plastic in everything from shopping bags to bottles. Their stock is up 25% since the war started. Global naphtha supply is stuck behind a closed Strait and American chemical companies are cashing in. Meanwhile, the war that was supposed to crush Iran's economy accidentally gave it a raise. Before the conflict, Tehran produced 1.1 million barrels a day and sold at $47 after discounts. Today it's pumping 1.5 million barrels at $110 with barely any discount, through new payment channels that bypass the old sanctions infrastructure entirely. Trump and Israel delivered de facto sanctions relief through the war itself. Which means Iran has less reason to stop fighting unless a formal deal offers what it's already getting informally. The country being "obliterated" is making more money per barrel than at any point in recent history. Source: WSJ, Trita Parsi

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The war made Iran richer and your groceries more expensive Dow just doubled its April price hike on polyethylene, the plastic in everything from shopping bags to bottles. Their stock is up 25% since the war started. Global naphtha supply is stuck behind a closed Strait and American chemical companies are cashing in. Meanwhile, the war that was supposed to crush Iran's economy accidentally gave it a raise. Before the conflict, Tehran produced 1.1 million barrels a day and sold at $47 after discounts. Today it's pumping 1.5 million barrels at $110 with barely any discount, through new payment channels that bypass the old sanctions infrastructure entirely. Trump and Israel delivered de facto sanctions relief through the war itself. Which means Iran has less reason to stop fighting unless a formal deal offers what it's already getting informally. The country being "obliterated" is making more money per barrel than at any point in recent history. Source: WSJ, Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

128,645 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🚨🇮🇷🇮🇱🇶🇦🇸🇦 Israel crossed Iran's energy red line by striking the South Pars gas field, and now both sides are torching each other's energy infrastructure across the Gulf. Iran fired back at Israel's Haifa refinery, Qatar's Ras Laffan (the world's largest LNG plant), plus refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Israel went after facilities that produce 730 million cubic meters of gas daily. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively dead. Traffic dropped 96% in the first 18 days of war, from thousands of transits to just 98. Saudi Arabia is now desperately pumping oil west through pipelines to Yanbu on the Red Sea to bypass the strait. If Iran hits Yanbu, analysts say 5-6 million barrels a day disappear from global markets and oil could hit $150. Brent crude has already jumped from the $70s to $115 since the war started. Every major energy facility that gets hit pushes prices higher. This is now a global energy crisis that's about to slam inflation and interest rates worldwide. Source: Wall Street Journal

🚨🇮🇷🇮🇱🇶🇦🇸🇦 Israel crossed Iran's energy red line by striking the South Pars gas field, and now both sides are torching each other's energy infrastructure across the Gulf. Iran fired back at Israel's Haifa refinery, Qatar's Ras Laffan (the world's largest LNG plant), plus refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Israel went after facilities that produce 730 million cubic meters of gas daily. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively dead. Traffic dropped 96% in the first 18 days of war, from thousands of transits to just 98. Saudi Arabia is now desperately pumping oil west through pipelines to Yanbu on the Red Sea to bypass the strait. If Iran hits Yanbu, analysts say 5-6 million barrels a day disappear from global markets and oil could hit $150. Brent crude has already jumped from the $70s to $115 since the war started. Every major energy facility that gets hit pushes prices higher. This is now a global energy crisis that's about to slam inflation and interest rates worldwide. Source: Wall Street Journal

Mario Nawfal

237,381 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The data on who got crushed and who didn't tells you everything about this war... Kpler's numbers show the damage in black and white. Iraq's oil exports collapsed 82%. Kuwait down 75%. Qatar down 70%. These countries sit deep inside the Gulf with no pipeline bypass to the open ocean. When Hormuz closed, their economies stopped. Saudi Arabia lost 34% and the UAE 26%. Bad, but survivable because both had insurance policies. Saudi's East-West Pipeline moves crude to Yanbu on the Red Sea. The UAE's Habshan-Fujairah pipeline reaches the Gulf of Oman. Those two lifelines are the only reason their exports didn't collapse like their neighbors. Which is exactly why Iran struck both of them after the ceasefire. Tehran knows those pipelines are the last thing keeping Gulf oil moving. Take them offline and every producer inside the Gulf goes to zero. Then there's Oman. Up 117%. The only green on the board. Its ports sit on the Arabian Sea, outside the Strait entirely. Oman became the region's only safe loading point overnight. The total damage: 206 million barrels erased from global supply in one month. At war prices, roughly $22-24 billion in lost Gulf revenue. Refineries worldwide pushed toward minimum operating levels. The question heading into Saturday's talks is simple. Can the world afford to keep 206 million barrels a month offline, or does Washington concede Iran's toll system just to get the oil moving again? Source: Kpler / Al Jazeera

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The data on who got crushed and who didn't tells you everything about this war... Kpler's numbers show the damage in black and white. Iraq's oil exports collapsed 82%. Kuwait down 75%. Qatar down 70%. These countries sit deep inside the Gulf with no pipeline bypass to the open ocean. When Hormuz closed, their economies stopped. Saudi Arabia lost 34% and the UAE 26%. Bad, but survivable because both had insurance policies. Saudi's East-West Pipeline moves crude to Yanbu on the Red Sea. The UAE's Habshan-Fujairah pipeline reaches the Gulf of Oman. Those two lifelines are the only reason their exports didn't collapse like their neighbors. Which is exactly why Iran struck both of them after the ceasefire. Tehran knows those pipelines are the last thing keeping Gulf oil moving. Take them offline and every producer inside the Gulf goes to zero. Then there's Oman. Up 117%. The only green on the board. Its ports sit on the Arabian Sea, outside the Strait entirely. Oman became the region's only safe loading point overnight. The total damage: 206 million barrels erased from global supply in one month. At war prices, roughly $22-24 billion in lost Gulf revenue. Refineries worldwide pushed toward minimum operating levels. The question heading into Saturday's talks is simple. Can the world afford to keep 206 million barrels a month offline, or does Washington concede Iran's toll system just to get the oil moving again? Source: Kpler / Al Jazeera

Mario Nawfal

49,364 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🇲🇾🇨🇳 Hormuz gets all the attention, but the Strait of Malacca is the one that keeps Beijing up at night. It's the world's busiest maritime chokepoint, narrowing to just 1.7 miles at its tightest point. In the first half of 2025 alone, 23.2 million barrels of oil per day passed through it. That's more than Hormuz. Around 75% of China's seaborne crude imports flow through it from the Middle East and Africa. The Iran war has forced governments across Asia to think seriously about what happens if Malacca faces the same fate as Hormuz. Indonesia's finance minister floated the idea of tolls this week before walking it back. Singapore has already assured both the U.S. and China that passage is guaranteed and it won't participate in any effort to block it. The difference between Hormuz and Malacca is that 4 countries share the strait and all of them have a strategic interest in keeping it open. That makes it harder to close, but also harder to control. China is watching what the U.S. did to Iran's economy through a single chokepoint. It has one of its own that it can't protect alone. Source: Reuters

🇲🇾🇨🇳 Hormuz gets all the attention, but the Strait of Malacca is the one that keeps Beijing up at night. It's the world's busiest maritime chokepoint, narrowing to just 1.7 miles at its tightest point. In the first half of 2025 alone, 23.2 million barrels of oil per day passed through it. That's more than Hormuz. Around 75% of China's seaborne crude imports flow through it from the Middle East and Africa. The Iran war has forced governments across Asia to think seriously about what happens if Malacca faces the same fate as Hormuz. Indonesia's finance minister floated the idea of tolls this week before walking it back. Singapore has already assured both the U.S. and China that passage is guaranteed and it won't participate in any effort to block it. The difference between Hormuz and Malacca is that 4 countries share the strait and all of them have a strategic interest in keeping it open. That makes it harder to close, but also harder to control. China is watching what the U.S. did to Iran's economy through a single chokepoint. It has one of its own that it can't protect alone. Source: Reuters

Mario Nawfal

278,556 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Strait of Hormuz over the last 48 hours: tanker attacks continue Iran's demands for opening the Strait of Hormuz are a nonstarter for the US. As I covered over the weekend, Iran has now added Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq along with Lebanon for a complete ceasefire as a condition. In addition, it also wants compensation for the war damages and the MOU violation. On the shipping front, Oman lane transits continue, but here's the catch. ADNOC (UAE) ships are being attacked with 4 of them getting hit last week and another possible attack today. ADNOC's rescue boat was sent out, but no other confirmation on the attack has been announced so far. What is interesting is this. Iraqi crude is getting through the Oman lane. Prosperity tankers carrying Iraqi crude have not been hit. Why? Simple. In the past, Iran has exported some of its oil through Iraq to evade sanctions. This is one of the main reasons why we are not seeing all the tankers get hit through the Oman lane. But it seems clear from the recent escalation patterns that whatever secret deal Iran had with UAE is all but over. Video from MarineTraffic.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 48 hours: tanker attacks continue Iran's demands for opening the Strait of Hormuz are a nonstarter for the US. As I covered over the weekend, Iran has now added Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq along with Lebanon for a complete ceasefire as a condition. In addition, it also wants compensation for the war damages and the MOU violation. On the shipping front, Oman lane transits continue, but here's the catch. ADNOC (UAE) ships are being attacked with 4 of them getting hit last week and another possible attack today. ADNOC's rescue boat was sent out, but no other confirmation on the attack has been announced so far. What is interesting is this. Iraqi crude is getting through the Oman lane. Prosperity tankers carrying Iraqi crude have not been hit. Why? Simple. In the past, Iran has exported some of its oil through Iraq to evade sanctions. This is one of the main reasons why we are not seeing all the tankers get hit through the Oman lane. But it seems clear from the recent escalation patterns that whatever secret deal Iran had with UAE is all but over. Video from MarineTraffic.

HFI Research

125,448 Aufrufe • vor 2 Tagen

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 BREAKING: TRUMP JUST PULLED THE PLUG ON IRAN'S OIL MONEY! Iran wanted to play games in the Strait of Hormuz. Three tankers hit with unknown projectiles in a matter of days. Now the bill just came due. The Treasury Department is revoking the license that let Iran sell oil under the June ceasefire deal. That waiver was a gift, not a right, and Iran just spat on it. A US official put it plainly. "As President Trump and the administration have repeatedly affirmed, the MOU in effect with Iran is entirely performance based." Translation. Behave or lose the deal. Another official didn't mince words either. "Iran's actions in the Strait were wholly unacceptable to the United States and will be met with consequences." This is not a slap on the wrist. Oil exports are Iran's lifeline to China and its only real source of hard currency. Cutting that off is aiming straight at the regime's wallet. Iran signed up for a deal that required keeping the strait open. Instead they fired on a Qatari LNG carrier, a Saudi supertanker, and a third vessel hit by a drone. That is not a misunderstanding. That is a pattern. You do not get to torch tankers with one hand and collect sanctions relief with the other. Oil prices jumped more than three percent on the news, proof that markets know exactly what this means. Consequences are not just words anymore. Iran wanted leverage. What they got was a reminder that Trump's deals come with strings, and he is not afraid to pull them.

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 BREAKING: TRUMP JUST PULLED THE PLUG ON IRAN'S OIL MONEY! Iran wanted to play games in the Strait of Hormuz. Three tankers hit with unknown projectiles in a matter of days. Now the bill just came due. The Treasury Department is revoking the license that let Iran sell oil under the June ceasefire deal. That waiver was a gift, not a right, and Iran just spat on it. A US official put it plainly. "As President Trump and the administration have repeatedly affirmed, the MOU in effect with Iran is entirely performance based." Translation. Behave or lose the deal. Another official didn't mince words either. "Iran's actions in the Strait were wholly unacceptable to the United States and will be met with consequences." This is not a slap on the wrist. Oil exports are Iran's lifeline to China and its only real source of hard currency. Cutting that off is aiming straight at the regime's wallet. Iran signed up for a deal that required keeping the strait open. Instead they fired on a Qatari LNG carrier, a Saudi supertanker, and a third vessel hit by a drone. That is not a misunderstanding. That is a pattern. You do not get to torch tankers with one hand and collect sanctions relief with the other. Oil prices jumped more than three percent on the news, proof that markets know exactly what this means. Consequences are not just words anymore. Iran wanted leverage. What they got was a reminder that Trump's deals come with strings, and he is not afraid to pull them.

Bill Mitchell

158,537 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

❗️ War in the Middle East could lead to the collapse of the global economy - ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has almost completely stopped. ◾️ Over the past 24 hours, only two commercial vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, and not a single oil tanker, the Joint Maritime Information Center said. ◾️ This is a key energy artery of the world: normally, about 20% of all oil passes through it. If tanker traffic stops, the world could lose up to 15-20 million barrels per day. ◾️ In the event of a protracted crisis, oil prices could soar to $120-150 per barrel, leading to higher fuel prices, inflation, a decline in production, and the risk of a global recession. ◾️ Europe and Asia, which are critically dependent on oil from the Persian Gulf, are already feeling the biggest impact. ◾️ Fuel flows from the Middle East have fallen by about 90%, and in Singapore, bunker fuel prices have already risen by more than 40%. In fact, the energy crisis has already begun in Asia. ◾️ More and more experts are pointing out that the Strait of Hormuz is blocked not only by war but also by insurance companies that have canceled insurance for global ocean commercial tonnage due to military risks in the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and all Iranian territorial waters. 📹: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours.

❗️ War in the Middle East could lead to the collapse of the global economy - ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has almost completely stopped. ◾️ Over the past 24 hours, only two commercial vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, and not a single oil tanker, the Joint Maritime Information Center said. ◾️ This is a key energy artery of the world: normally, about 20% of all oil passes through it. If tanker traffic stops, the world could lose up to 15-20 million barrels per day. ◾️ In the event of a protracted crisis, oil prices could soar to $120-150 per barrel, leading to higher fuel prices, inflation, a decline in production, and the risk of a global recession. ◾️ Europe and Asia, which are critically dependent on oil from the Persian Gulf, are already feeling the biggest impact. ◾️ Fuel flows from the Middle East have fallen by about 90%, and in Singapore, bunker fuel prices have already risen by more than 40%. In fact, the energy crisis has already begun in Asia. ◾️ More and more experts are pointing out that the Strait of Hormuz is blocked not only by war but also by insurance companies that have canceled insurance for global ocean commercial tonnage due to military risks in the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and all Iranian territorial waters. 📹: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours.

Anton Gerashchenko

486,064 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

🇮🇷🇴🇲 Iran is building a permanent toll system for Hormuz and deciding who pays and who doesn't... Tehran reportedly plans to jointly administer the Strait with Oman, charging $2 million per vessel. Oman gets a seat at the table as a reward for its mediation efforts and geographic position along the waterway. But the real story is in the exceptions. China sails through free. Pakistan gets 20 tankers. Iraq was declared a "brotherly country." And days ago, an Egyptian vessel carrying food reportedly passed without paying a cent, a political gesture thanking Cairo for its role in mediation. Iran is rebuilding the strait as a loyalty program. Friends transit freely. Mediators get rewarded. Enemies pay or don't pass at all. The parliament already codified this into law. The IRGC has the enforcement capability. And Oman's involvement gives it a veneer of international legitimacy. The U.S. went to war partly to prevent Iran from ever having this kind of leverage over global energy. Six weeks later, Iran has more control over Hormuz than at any point in its history, and it's institutionalizing that control while the bombs are still falling. Source: NYT Medial: The Middle East

🇮🇷🇴🇲 Iran is building a permanent toll system for Hormuz and deciding who pays and who doesn't... Tehran reportedly plans to jointly administer the Strait with Oman, charging $2 million per vessel. Oman gets a seat at the table as a reward for its mediation efforts and geographic position along the waterway. But the real story is in the exceptions. China sails through free. Pakistan gets 20 tankers. Iraq was declared a "brotherly country." And days ago, an Egyptian vessel carrying food reportedly passed without paying a cent, a political gesture thanking Cairo for its role in mediation. Iran is rebuilding the strait as a loyalty program. Friends transit freely. Mediators get rewarded. Enemies pay or don't pass at all. The parliament already codified this into law. The IRGC has the enforcement capability. And Oman's involvement gives it a veneer of international legitimacy. The U.S. went to war partly to prevent Iran from ever having this kind of leverage over global energy. Six weeks later, Iran has more control over Hormuz than at any point in its history, and it's institutionalizing that control while the bombs are still falling. Source: NYT Medial: The Middle East

Mario Nawfal

2,001,984 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

16 APR 2026 Just another day in the Singapore Strait. Thx Starboard Maritime Intelligence for the great visualization and analytical tools to understand the data. Four 🇮🇷-flagged ships openly transiting the strait: 1⃣ The 🇮🇷 Tanker DAN (9357729), coming from Iran, laden with Crude Oil, sailing eastbound to the Eastern Out of Port Limits (EOPL) anchorage. In a day or two, it will most likely conduct a Ship-to-Ship (StS) transfer of the cargo to another Dark Fleet tanker, which will take the oil to an OFAC-sanctioned Teapot Refinery in🇨🇳 2⃣ The 🇮🇷 bulk cargo ship MAHNAM (9213387) sailed westbound through the strait. It departed Dafeng 🇨🇳 after delivering an unknow cargo. It is returning to Iran. 3⃣ The 🇮🇷 bulk cargo ship WARTA (9465849) also sailed westbound, after departing Sri Racha, Thailand, where is conducted unknown cargo ops. 4⃣ The 🇮🇷 bulk cargo ship BAHJAT (9405954) sailed eastbound through the strait, on its way to Kuantan, Malaysia to deliver an unknown cargo loaded in Iran in March. Look carefully, and you will see a likely 🇺🇸Warship departing Singapore right as BAHJAT passed. The warship is heading eastbound, toward the Indian Ocean. While in the Malacca Strait later tonight, she will pass yet another 🇮🇷-flagged tanker HAWK (9362061), which is also laden with Iranian oil and on its way to the EOPL. Very interesting in view of 🇺🇸CJCS General Caine's comment in the press briefing that there will be Maritime Interdiction Ops (MIO) action in the Pacific AOR, against Iranian vessels trying to breach the blockade. Check out the UANI Iran War Shipping Updates for more details: Jemima Shelley TankerTrackers.com, Inc. Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ cdrsalamander Alessio Patalano Tomer Raanan Marcus Hand Blake Herzinger Collin Koh 🇸🇬🇺🇦 Euan Graham Daniel Roth Damien Symon

16 APR 2026 Just another day in the Singapore Strait. Thx Starboard Maritime Intelligence for the great visualization and analytical tools to understand the data. Four 🇮🇷-flagged ships openly transiting the strait: 1⃣ The 🇮🇷 Tanker DAN (9357729), coming from Iran, laden with Crude Oil, sailing eastbound to the Eastern Out of Port Limits (EOPL) anchorage. In a day or two, it will most likely conduct a Ship-to-Ship (StS) transfer of the cargo to another Dark Fleet tanker, which will take the oil to an OFAC-sanctioned Teapot Refinery in🇨🇳 2⃣ The 🇮🇷 bulk cargo ship MAHNAM (9213387) sailed westbound through the strait. It departed Dafeng 🇨🇳 after delivering an unknow cargo. It is returning to Iran. 3⃣ The 🇮🇷 bulk cargo ship WARTA (9465849) also sailed westbound, after departing Sri Racha, Thailand, where is conducted unknown cargo ops. 4⃣ The 🇮🇷 bulk cargo ship BAHJAT (9405954) sailed eastbound through the strait, on its way to Kuantan, Malaysia to deliver an unknown cargo loaded in Iran in March. Look carefully, and you will see a likely 🇺🇸Warship departing Singapore right as BAHJAT passed. The warship is heading eastbound, toward the Indian Ocean. While in the Malacca Strait later tonight, she will pass yet another 🇮🇷-flagged tanker HAWK (9362061), which is also laden with Iranian oil and on its way to the EOPL. Very interesting in view of 🇺🇸CJCS General Caine's comment in the press briefing that there will be Maritime Interdiction Ops (MIO) action in the Pacific AOR, against Iranian vessels trying to breach the blockade. Check out the UANI Iran War Shipping Updates for more details: Jemima Shelley TankerTrackers.com, Inc. Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ cdrsalamander Alessio Patalano Tomer Raanan Marcus Hand Blake Herzinger Collin Koh 🇸🇬🇺🇦 Euan Graham Daniel Roth Damien Symon

Charlie B

14,979 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: too deep into the escalation trap or the cycle of stupid. The events over the past week should start to dissuade anyone from contemplating that the Strait of Hormuz is going back to normal anytime soon. The video from MarineTraffic illustrates that clearly with Iran's lane being the only active one. Today, IRGC said that 4 vessels were halted, while the US is saying that's fake. No one knows what's real anymore, but what is real is that shipowners will be reluctant to take the risk. He said, she said isn't good enough anymore when lives are at risk. We are now firmly in Robert A. Pape's escalation trap and Malcolm Nance's cycle of stupid. It is clear and obvious the US cannot give Iran the control of the Strait of Hormuz because it will make it the most powerful oil producer in the world. And since this conflict is all or nothing, we will either have to topple the regime, or Iran will come out victorious. There's no in-between. Let's see how this weekend goes, but from a flow perspective, nothing is going through. Zero barrels went through on July 17 and the last two days have not been revised higher by Kpler.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: too deep into the escalation trap or the cycle of stupid. The events over the past week should start to dissuade anyone from contemplating that the Strait of Hormuz is going back to normal anytime soon. The video from MarineTraffic illustrates that clearly with Iran's lane being the only active one. Today, IRGC said that 4 vessels were halted, while the US is saying that's fake. No one knows what's real anymore, but what is real is that shipowners will be reluctant to take the risk. He said, she said isn't good enough anymore when lives are at risk. We are now firmly in Robert A. Pape's escalation trap and Malcolm Nance's cycle of stupid. It is clear and obvious the US cannot give Iran the control of the Strait of Hormuz because it will make it the most powerful oil producer in the world. And since this conflict is all or nothing, we will either have to topple the regime, or Iran will come out victorious. There's no in-between. Let's see how this weekend goes, but from a flow perspective, nothing is going through. Zero barrels went through on July 17 and the last two days have not been revised higher by Kpler.

HFI Research

135,721 Aufrufe • vor 26 Tagen

Two days ago the United States bombed Iran. Ten days earlier, the same two countries had signed a peace deal whose one core promise was safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran drone-struck a ship in that exact strait, the US hit Iranian missile sites in return, and oil did the unthinkable. It fell. Crude is now under $70. That reaction rewrites a rule. For fifty years, a missile fired near Hormuz meant oil spiking. This week the signatories of a ceasefire shot at each other inside the world's most important oil chokepoint, and the price went down. The market looked at live fire in the strait that carries a fifth of the world's crude and decided it did not care. The deal did not crack at the edges. It broke at its center, the single clause it existed to deliver, tested by a drone and answered by an airstrike ten days after the ink dried. And the same afternoon the bombs fell, the choreography of peace rolled on. The Secretary of State stood in Washington signing a separate Israel-Lebanon framework, calling it the start of lasting peace. The President told a room of farmers the Strait of Hormuz was open. America signed a peace, declared a waterway open, and bombed a treaty partner, all inside one day. So the war did not end. It moved into the paperwork. Iran's strait authority now says any ship on the American route loses its insurance. Trump says the strait is open. Each side has claimed the same narrow channel as its own, in writing, and is firing to prove it. The market has already placed its bet, oil under $70, that the flood of barrels is more real than the war over who controls them.

Two days ago the United States bombed Iran. Ten days earlier, the same two countries had signed a peace deal whose one core promise was safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran drone-struck a ship in that exact strait, the US hit Iranian missile sites in return, and oil did the unthinkable. It fell. Crude is now under $70. That reaction rewrites a rule. For fifty years, a missile fired near Hormuz meant oil spiking. This week the signatories of a ceasefire shot at each other inside the world's most important oil chokepoint, and the price went down. The market looked at live fire in the strait that carries a fifth of the world's crude and decided it did not care. The deal did not crack at the edges. It broke at its center, the single clause it existed to deliver, tested by a drone and answered by an airstrike ten days after the ink dried. And the same afternoon the bombs fell, the choreography of peace rolled on. The Secretary of State stood in Washington signing a separate Israel-Lebanon framework, calling it the start of lasting peace. The President told a room of farmers the Strait of Hormuz was open. America signed a peace, declared a waterway open, and bombed a treaty partner, all inside one day. So the war did not end. It moved into the paperwork. Iran's strait authority now says any ship on the American route loses its insurance. Trump says the strait is open. Each side has claimed the same narrow channel as its own, in writing, and is firing to prove it. The market has already placed its bet, oil under $70, that the flood of barrels is more real than the war over who controls them.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

87,787 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. As expected, the Oman route will be heavily contested in the coming days. The inbound tanker flows have slowed to a trickle and with the latest attack from IRGC using missiles (previously drones), the situation appears to be escalating. From a flow standpoint, inbound tanker rate is insufficient to change the production shut-in math. Yes, there are some loadings going on, but if the onshore storage drains with no visibility for a lot more VLCCs, the production will not restart, which is the crux of the issue. I guess time will tell what happens from here on out. I suspect the US will keep testing Iran's resolve with the Oman route. Note: At the beginning of the video, you will see the large group of vessels leaving associated with Japan. I have included video from MarineTraffic and my table of inbound tankers below.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. As expected, the Oman route will be heavily contested in the coming days. The inbound tanker flows have slowed to a trickle and with the latest attack from IRGC using missiles (previously drones), the situation appears to be escalating. From a flow standpoint, inbound tanker rate is insufficient to change the production shut-in math. Yes, there are some loadings going on, but if the onshore storage drains with no visibility for a lot more VLCCs, the production will not restart, which is the crux of the issue. I guess time will tell what happens from here on out. I suspect the US will keep testing Iran's resolve with the Oman route. Note: At the beginning of the video, you will see the large group of vessels leaving associated with Japan. I have included video from MarineTraffic and my table of inbound tankers below.

HFI Research

35,990 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

#BREAKING 🇦🇪 The United Arab Emirates, the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, has announced it will leave OPEC and OPEC+ starting May 1. 🛢️ This move would free the UAE from production quotas, allowing it to: ▪️ Increase oil output to full capacity ▪️ Set its own export strategy ▪️ Price crude independently of group restrictions 🟦 The decision could boost UAE production, strengthen state revenues, and put downward pressure on global oil prices. ▪️ Lower prices and increased supply would likely align with President Trump’s long-standing calls for cheaper energy and criticism of OPEC limits. 🟥 Amid rising tensions with Iran, the UAE’s exit could act as a strategic buffer for the global economy: 🟦 Around 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has repeatedly threatened to close. ▪️ The UAE, however, can bypass Hormuz via the Habshan–Fujairah pipeline, exporting oil directly to the Gulf of Oman. Freed from OPEC quotas, it could maximize output through this route, weakening Iran’s leverage over global supply. ▪️ In the event of renewed conflict, sanctions, or infrastructure strikes, Iran’s oil exports — largely dependent on China — could collapse. 🔺 The UAE, with significant spare capacity, could quickly offset supply losses, preventing extreme price spikes (e.g. $150–200 per barrel) that would damage Western economies. 🔹 Reduced OPEC coordination would also limit Iran’s ability to influence global markets through price manipulation. 🇨🇳 China, a major buyer of Iranian oil, could be forced to shift toward UAE supplies, further isolating Tehran economically. 🔺 If Iran physically blocks Hormuz, the UAE’s pipeline system becomes critical: ▪️ It can transport 1.5–1.8 million barrels per day — over half of UAE exports ▪️ Tankers can load outside the Strait, reducing risk and insurance costs 🔺 Fujairah, located outside Hormuz, offers a safer and cheaper export hub compared to Gulf ports dependent on the Strait. Video is generated by grok AI

#BREAKING 🇦🇪 The United Arab Emirates, the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, has announced it will leave OPEC and OPEC+ starting May 1. 🛢️ This move would free the UAE from production quotas, allowing it to: ▪️ Increase oil output to full capacity ▪️ Set its own export strategy ▪️ Price crude independently of group restrictions 🟦 The decision could boost UAE production, strengthen state revenues, and put downward pressure on global oil prices. ▪️ Lower prices and increased supply would likely align with President Trump’s long-standing calls for cheaper energy and criticism of OPEC limits. 🟥 Amid rising tensions with Iran, the UAE’s exit could act as a strategic buffer for the global economy: 🟦 Around 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has repeatedly threatened to close. ▪️ The UAE, however, can bypass Hormuz via the Habshan–Fujairah pipeline, exporting oil directly to the Gulf of Oman. Freed from OPEC quotas, it could maximize output through this route, weakening Iran’s leverage over global supply. ▪️ In the event of renewed conflict, sanctions, or infrastructure strikes, Iran’s oil exports — largely dependent on China — could collapse. 🔺 The UAE, with significant spare capacity, could quickly offset supply losses, preventing extreme price spikes (e.g. $150–200 per barrel) that would damage Western economies. 🔹 Reduced OPEC coordination would also limit Iran’s ability to influence global markets through price manipulation. 🇨🇳 China, a major buyer of Iranian oil, could be forced to shift toward UAE supplies, further isolating Tehran economically. 🔺 If Iran physically blocks Hormuz, the UAE’s pipeline system becomes critical: ▪️ It can transport 1.5–1.8 million barrels per day — over half of UAE exports ▪️ Tankers can load outside the Strait, reducing risk and insurance costs 🔺 Fujairah, located outside Hormuz, offers a safer and cheaper export hub compared to Gulf ports dependent on the Strait. Video is generated by grok AI

NSTRIKE

13,664 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

BREAKING: The US House just voted 215 to 208 to end the Iran war. The same day, Iran bombed Kuwait’s main airport and the US bombed Iran. Both are true. The gap between them is the whole story. The vote is historic, and misunderstood. It is the first time either chamber of Congress has passed a measure against this war since it began more than three months ago, and 4 Republicans crossed the aisle to do it. But it stops nothing. It is a concurrent resolution: it never reaches Trump’s desk, it still has to pass the Senate, its legal force is disputed, and Trump will contest it. It does not end the war. It measures how toxic the war has become. So why did 4 Republicans break? The rebuke was aimed at Trump’s handling of the conflict and, in the reporting’s own words, the economic fallout, a war that has rattled the global economy with no end in sight. That is oil propped up by a draining reserve, fertilizer the world’s biggest importer now pays nearly double for, and the strait still shut since February. Congress just voted on the price of crude and bread. It only called it a war. But the same afternoon, the war got bigger. Iranian drones and missiles hammered Kuwait’s main airport, killed 1 and wounded more than 60, and forced it shut. The US answered with a strike on an Iranian military site on Qeshm Island, inside the Strait of Hormuz. Israel kept hitting Lebanon, the sticking point Tehran says any deal must cover. The mediators were already cut off. Oil ticked up about 2%, Brent back near $97, while the strait stayed shut. This is the new phase: a divergence. Abroad, the war is widening, Gulf states hit, Iran hitting back, talks frozen. At home, the will to keep paying for it is cracking for the first time. The binding constraint is sliding off the battlefield and onto the floor of Congress. Increasingly, the limit is not Iran. It is the bill. The vote will not stop the war. But it is the first time the cost of one shut strait reached the floor of the House. The war is not ending. The willingness to keep paying for it is.

BREAKING: The US House just voted 215 to 208 to end the Iran war. The same day, Iran bombed Kuwait’s main airport and the US bombed Iran. Both are true. The gap between them is the whole story. The vote is historic, and misunderstood. It is the first time either chamber of Congress has passed a measure against this war since it began more than three months ago, and 4 Republicans crossed the aisle to do it. But it stops nothing. It is a concurrent resolution: it never reaches Trump’s desk, it still has to pass the Senate, its legal force is disputed, and Trump will contest it. It does not end the war. It measures how toxic the war has become. So why did 4 Republicans break? The rebuke was aimed at Trump’s handling of the conflict and, in the reporting’s own words, the economic fallout, a war that has rattled the global economy with no end in sight. That is oil propped up by a draining reserve, fertilizer the world’s biggest importer now pays nearly double for, and the strait still shut since February. Congress just voted on the price of crude and bread. It only called it a war. But the same afternoon, the war got bigger. Iranian drones and missiles hammered Kuwait’s main airport, killed 1 and wounded more than 60, and forced it shut. The US answered with a strike on an Iranian military site on Qeshm Island, inside the Strait of Hormuz. Israel kept hitting Lebanon, the sticking point Tehran says any deal must cover. The mediators were already cut off. Oil ticked up about 2%, Brent back near $97, while the strait stayed shut. This is the new phase: a divergence. Abroad, the war is widening, Gulf states hit, Iran hitting back, talks frozen. At home, the will to keep paying for it is cracking for the first time. The binding constraint is sliding off the battlefield and onto the floor of Congress. Increasingly, the limit is not Iran. It is the bill. The vote will not stop the war. But it is the first time the cost of one shut strait reached the floor of the House. The war is not ending. The willingness to keep paying for it is.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

62,875 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

❗️❗️🇺🇸🇮🇱🚀🇮🇷 The United States is reportedly preparing a new large-scale military operation against Iran, with multiple major American media outlets indicating that an intensive air campaign could begin as early as this weekend. 🔹 The Wall Street Journal: President Donald Trump has ordered the U.S. military to prepare a new attack on Iran that could begin this weekend and continue for several days. 🔹 ABC News: Trump is considering a sustained series of strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure. According to another source, the plans were discussed with Israeli officials, although it remains unclear whether Israel will directly participate. 🔹 NBC News: The United States and Israel are reportedly preparing what could become the most extensive bombing campaign yet against Iran's energy infrastructure, with operations potentially lasting throughout the weekend. 🔹 CNN: The U.S. has prepared plans for a new wave of strikes that could begin this weekend, including options targeting Iran's nuclear and energy infrastructure. According to the network, there are currently no clear indications that Israel will participate directly in this phase of the operation. 🔹 CBS News: Israeli officials have been fully briefed and remain in close coordination with Washington. Sources say discussions included completing the expanded strike campaign before financial markets reopen on Monday due to concerns over its potential impact on the U.S. and global economy. According to two U.S. officials, Iranian power plants and oil refineries are expected to be among the primary targets. A senior Israeli official also said that Trump and Netanyahu reviewed three military options, including strikes focused on Iran's strategic ground supply routes. The convergence of reporting from several major U.S. media outlets suggests that Washington is actively preparing options for a significantly broader campaign than previous operations. If such strikes are carried out, they would likely mark a major escalation aimed at degrading Iran's military and economic infrastructure while substantially increasing the risk of a wider regional confrontation. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

❗️❗️🇺🇸🇮🇱🚀🇮🇷 The United States is reportedly preparing a new large-scale military operation against Iran, with multiple major American media outlets indicating that an intensive air campaign could begin as early as this weekend. 🔹 The Wall Street Journal: President Donald Trump has ordered the U.S. military to prepare a new attack on Iran that could begin this weekend and continue for several days. 🔹 ABC News: Trump is considering a sustained series of strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure. According to another source, the plans were discussed with Israeli officials, although it remains unclear whether Israel will directly participate. 🔹 NBC News: The United States and Israel are reportedly preparing what could become the most extensive bombing campaign yet against Iran's energy infrastructure, with operations potentially lasting throughout the weekend. 🔹 CNN: The U.S. has prepared plans for a new wave of strikes that could begin this weekend, including options targeting Iran's nuclear and energy infrastructure. According to the network, there are currently no clear indications that Israel will participate directly in this phase of the operation. 🔹 CBS News: Israeli officials have been fully briefed and remain in close coordination with Washington. Sources say discussions included completing the expanded strike campaign before financial markets reopen on Monday due to concerns over its potential impact on the U.S. and global economy. According to two U.S. officials, Iranian power plants and oil refineries are expected to be among the primary targets. A senior Israeli official also said that Trump and Netanyahu reviewed three military options, including strikes focused on Iran's strategic ground supply routes. The convergence of reporting from several major U.S. media outlets suggests that Washington is actively preparing options for a significantly broader campaign than previous operations. If such strikes are carried out, they would likely mark a major escalation aimed at degrading Iran's military and economic infrastructure while substantially increasing the risk of a wider regional confrontation. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

Visioner

16,859 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 MADNESS: IRAN JUST TORCHED THE PEACE DEAL, LITERALLY! Three tankers hit in the Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours. Not one. Not two. Three. A Qatari LNG carrier, the Al Rekayyat, set ablaze in the engine room. A Saudi supertanker, the Wedyan, struck off Oman. A third vessel hit by a drone. This is not an accident. This is Iran testing whether Trump's word means anything. It does. Trump already gave them the warning shot in plain English. "We can knock down their bridges in one hour. We can knock out their energy supply," he said Monday from the White House. "I'd rather make a deal, because I don't want to affect 91 million people." That is not a threat. That is mercy with a deadline attached. Iran's answer was missiles fired at commercial ships in international waters, the same waterway they agreed to keep open and toll free under the memorandum signed less than a month ago. Their foreign minister now says talks are off unless the threats stop. You do not get to torch tankers and then complain about tone. Qatar is not buying it. Their government called the strike an "unacceptable attack" and holds Iran "fully legally responsible." Saudi Arabia condemned the hit on its own vessel too. Even Iran's neighbors know a bad actor when they see one. Markets felt it instantly. Brent crude jumped to nearly seventy four dollars a barrel. Treasury yields ticked up on inflation fears. This is what happens when a regime treats a shipping lane like a leash. The Ayatollah is dead and buried this week. His replacement is already showing the same playbook. Provoke, deny, then act shocked when the world stops trusting your signature. Trump does not bluff. Iran is about to find that out the hard way if this continues. Peace through strength is not a slogan. It is a strait full of tankers that either sail free or do not sail at all.

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 MADNESS: IRAN JUST TORCHED THE PEACE DEAL, LITERALLY! Three tankers hit in the Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours. Not one. Not two. Three. A Qatari LNG carrier, the Al Rekayyat, set ablaze in the engine room. A Saudi supertanker, the Wedyan, struck off Oman. A third vessel hit by a drone. This is not an accident. This is Iran testing whether Trump's word means anything. It does. Trump already gave them the warning shot in plain English. "We can knock down their bridges in one hour. We can knock out their energy supply," he said Monday from the White House. "I'd rather make a deal, because I don't want to affect 91 million people." That is not a threat. That is mercy with a deadline attached. Iran's answer was missiles fired at commercial ships in international waters, the same waterway they agreed to keep open and toll free under the memorandum signed less than a month ago. Their foreign minister now says talks are off unless the threats stop. You do not get to torch tankers and then complain about tone. Qatar is not buying it. Their government called the strike an "unacceptable attack" and holds Iran "fully legally responsible." Saudi Arabia condemned the hit on its own vessel too. Even Iran's neighbors know a bad actor when they see one. Markets felt it instantly. Brent crude jumped to nearly seventy four dollars a barrel. Treasury yields ticked up on inflation fears. This is what happens when a regime treats a shipping lane like a leash. The Ayatollah is dead and buried this week. His replacement is already showing the same playbook. Provoke, deny, then act shocked when the world stops trusting your signature. Trump does not bluff. Iran is about to find that out the hard way if this continues. Peace through strength is not a slogan. It is a strait full of tankers that either sail free or do not sail at all.

Bill Mitchell

80,106 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇱🇧🇺🇸 The US naval blockade theater with Iran is collapsing in real time. At least 34 oil tankers and gas carriers linked to Iran have already sliced straight through Washington’s much hyped cordon in the Persian Gulf. 19 vessels sailed out past the blockade line. Fifteen more sailed in. All of them crossed the imaginary line the US tried to draw from Ras al-Hadd in Oman northeast to the Iran-Pakistan border. According to Vortexa tracking data reports the exact numbers and what we're seeing is a direct bypass of the American porous blockade despite Trump’s repeated boasts of success. Nour News and other outlets close to the IRGC are framing it even more bluntly — the so called naval siege has been broken before it could even get started. The US Navy simply doesn’t have enough hulls on station to stop every Iranian commercial fleet vessel (only single digits have been seized). The tankers go dark, reroute, and keep the oil flowing anyway. This is the Epstein coalition’s grand gunboat theatre laid bare: a blockade announced with maximum fanfare that is already being treated like a speed bump by the very nation it was supposed to strangle. Now ask yourself how many esptein coalition aligned vessels are getting through Iran's blockade? Quite the humilating contrast. The owners of the Gulf are still very much in business and in control of what enters Hormuz. And every tanker that slips through the US mirage of a Blockade is another public humiliation for an empire that can’t even enforce its own threats.

🇱🇧🇺🇸 The US naval blockade theater with Iran is collapsing in real time. At least 34 oil tankers and gas carriers linked to Iran have already sliced straight through Washington’s much hyped cordon in the Persian Gulf. 19 vessels sailed out past the blockade line. Fifteen more sailed in. All of them crossed the imaginary line the US tried to draw from Ras al-Hadd in Oman northeast to the Iran-Pakistan border. According to Vortexa tracking data reports the exact numbers and what we're seeing is a direct bypass of the American porous blockade despite Trump’s repeated boasts of success. Nour News and other outlets close to the IRGC are framing it even more bluntly — the so called naval siege has been broken before it could even get started. The US Navy simply doesn’t have enough hulls on station to stop every Iranian commercial fleet vessel (only single digits have been seized). The tankers go dark, reroute, and keep the oil flowing anyway. This is the Epstein coalition’s grand gunboat theatre laid bare: a blockade announced with maximum fanfare that is already being treated like a speed bump by the very nation it was supposed to strangle. Now ask yourself how many esptein coalition aligned vessels are getting through Iran's blockade? Quite the humilating contrast. The owners of the Gulf are still very much in business and in control of what enters Hormuz. And every tanker that slips through the US mirage of a Blockade is another public humiliation for an empire that can’t even enforce its own threats.

THE ISLANDER

40,225 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🚨OPERATIONAL UPDATE: ISRAEL U.S. WAR WITH THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC - Reporting Window: 3/14 to 3/16 • The war widened further into the Gulf economy, with drone incidents near Dubai Airport, disruption at Fujairah energy infrastructure (also in the UAE), and continued pressure around the Strait of Hormuz • Israel continued deep strike waves inside Iran while expanding ground operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon • Iran continued missile salvos toward Israel while activating proxy pressure fronts across Iraq • The U.S. began pushing for a multinational Hormuz security coalition while calibrating escalation to avoid a global oil shock The last 48 hours showed that the war is no longer just about missile exchanges between Israel and Iran. It is increasingly a contest over the regional system itself: energy flows, maritime routes, proxy networks, and command infrastructure. While Israel continues to degrade Iran’s military capabilities, Iran is trying to widen the battlefield economically and geographically. 📽️VIDEO 1: U.S. strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub. 📽️VIDEO 2: Smoke rising from oil infrastructure in Fujairah after drone debris caused a fire. *⃣ GULF FRONT: THE ECONOMIC WAR DEEPENED This remained the most strategically important development. Following earlier strikes around Kharg Island and threats to the Strait of Hormuz, pressure on Gulf infrastructure continued. Drone incidents and debris related fires disrupted operations near Fujairah’s energy infrastructure, one of the world’s largest bunkering hubs in the UAE. Shortly afterward, a drone related incident near Dubai International Airport ignited a fuel tank and temporarily disrupted flight operations before authorities contained the fire and resumed traffic. These incidents show the war repeatedly touching civilian energy and logistics infrastructure in the UAE, not just military facilities. Even limited disruptions matter in this region. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 percent of global oil supply, and repeated incidents have pushed oil prices above $100 during the week. Iran does not need to fully close Hormuz to achieve strategic leverage. Persistent disruption alone can force insurance spikes, rerouting of shipping, and higher global energy prices. *⃣ KHARG ISLAND: IRAN’S ECONOMIC JUGULAR IS NOW UNDER DIRECT PRESSURE One of the most consequential developments in the war involves Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal. Historically, roughly 85 to 90 percent of Iran’s crude exports pass through Kharg, making it the single most important node in the country’s energy economy. Recent U.S. strikes targeted military infrastructure associated with IRGC naval operations near the island, particularly facilities linked to mine laying capability and coastal missile systems. These strikes appear connected to Washington’s warning that Iran must not deploy naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz. There are also scattered reports of secondary explosions and possible infrastructure damage near the port, though there is no credible confirmation that the export terminal itself has been destroyed. That distinction is important. Destroying Kharg outright would cripple Iran’s oil exports overnight and likely trigger a massive oil price spike. Instead, the current targeting pattern appears designed to threaten Iran’s economic lifeline without fully collapsing it, maintaining pressure while avoiding the most extreme global economic consequences. *⃣ IRAN: STRIKES INSIDE THE CORE CONTINUED Inside Iran, Israeli strike activity remained intense. Over the last 48 hours, strikes targeted command infrastructure, missile launch systems, air defense networks, and military production sites across Tehran and other strategic locations. The campaign also hit Mehrabad Airport, where Israeli officials reported destroying aircraft associated with Iran’s leadership. Across central and western Iran, the strike map remains broad. Tehran, Karaj, and several other military zones have continued to appear in overnight strike reporting. This suggests the campaign is still focused on systematically degrading Iran’s military capacity, particularly missile infrastructure and command networks. Rather than shifting toward a narrow endgame phase, the strikes indicate a continued effort to keep Iran’s launch capabilities suppressed. *⃣ LEBANON: THE NORTHERN FRONT IS EXPANDING The Lebanon front also escalated further. Israeli forces expanded ground operations in southern Lebanon and reportedly encircled Khiyam, pushing westward toward the Litani River. This represents a larger ground posture than earlier border operations and indicates Israel is attempting to shape the battlefield against Hezbollah rather than simply retaliating against rocket launches. At the same time, Hezbollah continued firing rockets and drones toward northern Israel, maintaining pressure on the northern front even after suffering extensive infrastructure losses earlier in the war. Israel has continued heavy strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon, including operational sites and logistical facilities tied to the group’s missile network. The northern theater now appears to be entering a phase of attrition and positional pressure, rather than the limited cross border exchanges that characterized earlier weeks. *⃣ IRAQ: PROXY PRESSURE ON THE UNITED STATES CONTINUES Iran aligned militias continued attacks on U.S. positions across Iraq. Over the past several days these groups have launched drones and rockets against American bases and diplomatic infrastructure, including a missile strike on the helipad area of the U.S. embassy compound in Baghdad. These attacks serve two purposes: ➡️First, they impose direct costs on U.S. operations in the region. ➡️Second, they force the United States to divert resources toward base defense and interception missions. Even when damage is limited, the attacks expand the battlefield and complicate the operational environment for U.S. forces. *⃣ IRANIAN MISSILE ATTACKS CONTINUE Iran continued launching missiles toward Israel during this period. Several salvos targeted southern Israel and the Negev region, triggering repeated air raid alerts. Despite continued launches, the overall military impact of these attacks appears limited. Israeli air defense systems including Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and U.S. systems such as THAAD have maintained high interception rates. Iran is still able to launch missiles and drones, but the sustained strikes on launchers, command centers, and production facilities appear to be reducing the scale of its barrages compared to the opening days of the war. *⃣ WASHINGTON: TRUMP SIGNALS A LONGER STRATEGIC GAME The political messaging from Washington over the past 48 hours has also clarified the broader strategic direction. Publicly, Trump has suggested the war could end soon and that most major Iranian targets have already been struck. Operationally, however, the signals point toward preparation for a longer campaign. Washington has begun pushing for a multinational coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz, urging countries that depend on Gulf energy flows to participate in maritime security operations. At the same time, the United States has been careful not to push escalation to the point of triggering a global energy shock. This balancing act helps explain why certain targets, such as Kharg Island’s export terminal, have been threatened but not completely destroyed. The strategic posture appears to be: ➡️sustain pressure on Iran’s military capability ➡️protect global energy flows ➡️avoid triggering a catastrophic oil price spike Israel’s priorities are somewhat different. Israel is focused primarily on maximizing military degradation of Iran and Hezbollah, even if that increases regional escalation risks. The dynamic between Washington’s economic caution and Israel’s military pressure is likely to shape the next phase of the conflict. *⃣ WHAT CHANGED IN THE LAST 48 HOURS Three developments stand out: ➡️First, the Gulf economic front is becoming central to the war. Drone incidents near Dubai and Fujairah show that the conflict is now directly touching regional infrastructure and global energy flows. ➡️Second, Israel continues to widen the battlefield rather than narrow it. Deep strikes inside Iran and expanded operations in Lebanon suggest the campaign is still in a degradation phase. ➡️Third, the United States is beginning to shift toward coalition management of the conflict, particularly around Hormuz, while trying to prevent the war from triggering a global energy crisis. In short, the war is evolving from a direct military confrontation into a broader struggle over regional stability, energy flows, and long term strategic balance in the Middle East.

🚨OPERATIONAL UPDATE: ISRAEL U.S. WAR WITH THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC - Reporting Window: 3/14 to 3/16 • The war widened further into the Gulf economy, with drone incidents near Dubai Airport, disruption at Fujairah energy infrastructure (also in the UAE), and continued pressure around the Strait of Hormuz • Israel continued deep strike waves inside Iran while expanding ground operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon • Iran continued missile salvos toward Israel while activating proxy pressure fronts across Iraq • The U.S. began pushing for a multinational Hormuz security coalition while calibrating escalation to avoid a global oil shock The last 48 hours showed that the war is no longer just about missile exchanges between Israel and Iran. It is increasingly a contest over the regional system itself: energy flows, maritime routes, proxy networks, and command infrastructure. While Israel continues to degrade Iran’s military capabilities, Iran is trying to widen the battlefield economically and geographically. 📽️VIDEO 1: U.S. strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub. 📽️VIDEO 2: Smoke rising from oil infrastructure in Fujairah after drone debris caused a fire. ⃣ GULF FRONT: THE ECONOMIC WAR DEEPENED This remained the most strategically important development. Following earlier strikes around Kharg Island and threats to the Strait of Hormuz, pressure on Gulf infrastructure continued. Drone incidents and debris related fires disrupted operations near Fujairah’s energy infrastructure, one of the world’s largest bunkering hubs in the UAE. Shortly afterward, a drone related incident near Dubai International Airport ignited a fuel tank and temporarily disrupted flight operations before authorities contained the fire and resumed traffic. These incidents show the war repeatedly touching civilian energy and logistics infrastructure in the UAE, not just military facilities. Even limited disruptions matter in this region. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 percent of global oil supply, and repeated incidents have pushed oil prices above $100 during the week. Iran does not need to fully close Hormuz to achieve strategic leverage. Persistent disruption alone can force insurance spikes, rerouting of shipping, and higher global energy prices. ⃣ KHARG ISLAND: IRAN’S ECONOMIC JUGULAR IS NOW UNDER DIRECT PRESSURE One of the most consequential developments in the war involves Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal. Historically, roughly 85 to 90 percent of Iran’s crude exports pass through Kharg, making it the single most important node in the country’s energy economy. Recent U.S. strikes targeted military infrastructure associated with IRGC naval operations near the island, particularly facilities linked to mine laying capability and coastal missile systems. These strikes appear connected to Washington’s warning that Iran must not deploy naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz. There are also scattered reports of secondary explosions and possible infrastructure damage near the port, though there is no credible confirmation that the export terminal itself has been destroyed. That distinction is important. Destroying Kharg outright would cripple Iran’s oil exports overnight and likely trigger a massive oil price spike. Instead, the current targeting pattern appears designed to threaten Iran’s economic lifeline without fully collapsing it, maintaining pressure while avoiding the most extreme global economic consequences. ⃣ IRAN: STRIKES INSIDE THE CORE CONTINUED Inside Iran, Israeli strike activity remained intense. Over the last 48 hours, strikes targeted command infrastructure, missile launch systems, air defense networks, and military production sites across Tehran and other strategic locations. The campaign also hit Mehrabad Airport, where Israeli officials reported destroying aircraft associated with Iran’s leadership. Across central and western Iran, the strike map remains broad. Tehran, Karaj, and several other military zones have continued to appear in overnight strike reporting. This suggests the campaign is still focused on systematically degrading Iran’s military capacity, particularly missile infrastructure and command networks. Rather than shifting toward a narrow endgame phase, the strikes indicate a continued effort to keep Iran’s launch capabilities suppressed. ⃣ LEBANON: THE NORTHERN FRONT IS EXPANDING The Lebanon front also escalated further. Israeli forces expanded ground operations in southern Lebanon and reportedly encircled Khiyam, pushing westward toward the Litani River. This represents a larger ground posture than earlier border operations and indicates Israel is attempting to shape the battlefield against Hezbollah rather than simply retaliating against rocket launches. At the same time, Hezbollah continued firing rockets and drones toward northern Israel, maintaining pressure on the northern front even after suffering extensive infrastructure losses earlier in the war. Israel has continued heavy strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon, including operational sites and logistical facilities tied to the group’s missile network. The northern theater now appears to be entering a phase of attrition and positional pressure, rather than the limited cross border exchanges that characterized earlier weeks. ⃣ IRAQ: PROXY PRESSURE ON THE UNITED STATES CONTINUES Iran aligned militias continued attacks on U.S. positions across Iraq. Over the past several days these groups have launched drones and rockets against American bases and diplomatic infrastructure, including a missile strike on the helipad area of the U.S. embassy compound in Baghdad. These attacks serve two purposes: ➡️First, they impose direct costs on U.S. operations in the region. ➡️Second, they force the United States to divert resources toward base defense and interception missions. Even when damage is limited, the attacks expand the battlefield and complicate the operational environment for U.S. forces. ⃣ IRANIAN MISSILE ATTACKS CONTINUE Iran continued launching missiles toward Israel during this period. Several salvos targeted southern Israel and the Negev region, triggering repeated air raid alerts. Despite continued launches, the overall military impact of these attacks appears limited. Israeli air defense systems including Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and U.S. systems such as THAAD have maintained high interception rates. Iran is still able to launch missiles and drones, but the sustained strikes on launchers, command centers, and production facilities appear to be reducing the scale of its barrages compared to the opening days of the war. ⃣ WASHINGTON: TRUMP SIGNALS A LONGER STRATEGIC GAME The political messaging from Washington over the past 48 hours has also clarified the broader strategic direction. Publicly, Trump has suggested the war could end soon and that most major Iranian targets have already been struck. Operationally, however, the signals point toward preparation for a longer campaign. Washington has begun pushing for a multinational coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz, urging countries that depend on Gulf energy flows to participate in maritime security operations. At the same time, the United States has been careful not to push escalation to the point of triggering a global energy shock. This balancing act helps explain why certain targets, such as Kharg Island’s export terminal, have been threatened but not completely destroyed. The strategic posture appears to be: ➡️sustain pressure on Iran’s military capability ➡️protect global energy flows ➡️avoid triggering a catastrophic oil price spike Israel’s priorities are somewhat different. Israel is focused primarily on maximizing military degradation of Iran and Hezbollah, even if that increases regional escalation risks. The dynamic between Washington’s economic caution and Israel’s military pressure is likely to shape the next phase of the conflict. ⃣ WHAT CHANGED IN THE LAST 48 HOURS Three developments stand out: ➡️First, the Gulf economic front is becoming central to the war. Drone incidents near Dubai and Fujairah show that the conflict is now directly touching regional infrastructure and global energy flows. ➡️Second, Israel continues to widen the battlefield rather than narrow it. Deep strikes inside Iran and expanded operations in Lebanon suggest the campaign is still in a degradation phase. ➡️Third, the United States is beginning to shift toward coalition management of the conflict, particularly around Hormuz, while trying to prevent the war from triggering a global energy crisis. In short, the war is evolving from a direct military confrontation into a broader struggle over regional stability, energy flows, and long term strategic balance in the Middle East.

Inside_Israel_Intel

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