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Why is OpenAI cutting codex pricing right now? Gavin Baker Gavin Baker of Atreides Management thinks every major player knows the answer - and is acting on it privately. Baker told John Coogan on TBPN: OpenAI's codex price cuts are not a margin decision. They're a strategic move to... stay in the recursive self-improvement loop - the cycle where AI improves its own code. Companies that lose coding token share now may find themselves outside that loop when it matters most. Baker's read on $META: Zuckerberg has no articulated product anchor for "personal superintelligence." But the mechanism that forced his hand in 2022 - the stock - is likely to activate again. What the end game looks like and who survives it: Source: TBPN -show more

Podcast Alpha

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41,051 views • 22 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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xAI charges $50B per gigawatt. Neoclouds charge $17-25B. Gavin Baker Gavin Baker of Atreides Management told John Coogan and Jordi Hays on TBPN that Mars is not the SpaceX bull case. Altimeter's research shows xAI monetizes compute at $50B per gigawatt on the Google deal - 2-3x what any neocloud competitor charges. Baker stayed long through the IPO. His 12-month model doesn't track rocket launches. It tracks gigawatt additions. xAI also ordered roughly 20% of NVIDIA's Ruben production. Ruben is easier to deploy than Blackwell. Each new gigawatt at that pricing premium is a significant revenue event. Model gigawatts, not launch cadence. That's the trade. Full breakdown of Baker's near-term SpaceX case: Source: TBPN -

xAI charges $50B per gigawatt. Neoclouds charge $17-25B. Gavin Baker Gavin Baker of Atreides Management told John Coogan and Jordi Hays on TBPN that Mars is not the SpaceX bull case. Altimeter's research shows xAI monetizes compute at $50B per gigawatt on the Google deal - 2-3x what any neocloud competitor charges. Baker stayed long through the IPO. His 12-month model doesn't track rocket launches. It tracks gigawatt additions. xAI also ordered roughly 20% of NVIDIA's Ruben production. Ruben is easier to deploy than Blackwell. Each new gigawatt at that pricing premium is a significant revenue event. Model gigawatts, not launch cadence. That's the trade. Full breakdown of Baker's near-term SpaceX case: Source: TBPN -

Podcast Alpha

54,609 views • 22 days ago

Demis Hassabis confirmed every frontier AI lab is working on recursive self-improvement and in the same sentence said the safety risk of removing humans from the loop entirely keeps him up at night. That combination should stop you. The CEO of Google DeepMind just confirmed that the thing most people treat as a theoretical future risk is already the active focus of every serious lab on earth right now. He explained why it works in coding and math. The feedback loop is fast. You can verify whether an answer is correct almost instantly. You can generate synthetic training data from it. The loop closes quickly and cleanly. Then he said where it breaks down. In biology, chemistry and physics. Any domain where verifying a hypothesis requires a physical experiment in the real world. The loop does not close in seconds. It closes in weeks or months. Geoffrey Hinton said in his Nobel lecture that recursive self-improvement is the development he fears most and that once started it may not be possible to stop. Hassabis is not pushing back on that. He is describing the guardrails labs are building around a process they are already running. Every lab has to think carefully about the safety of a process where no human is in the loop. He said that as a constraint they are navigating right now. The question they are sitting with is how much of it to let run without a human watching. (Watch the full interview on YouTube at Two Minute Papers channel)

Demis Hassabis confirmed every frontier AI lab is working on recursive self-improvement and in the same sentence said the safety risk of removing humans from the loop entirely keeps him up at night. That combination should stop you. The CEO of Google DeepMind just confirmed that the thing most people treat as a theoretical future risk is already the active focus of every serious lab on earth right now. He explained why it works in coding and math. The feedback loop is fast. You can verify whether an answer is correct almost instantly. You can generate synthetic training data from it. The loop closes quickly and cleanly. Then he said where it breaks down. In biology, chemistry and physics. Any domain where verifying a hypothesis requires a physical experiment in the real world. The loop does not close in seconds. It closes in weeks or months. Geoffrey Hinton said in his Nobel lecture that recursive self-improvement is the development he fears most and that once started it may not be possible to stop. Hassabis is not pushing back on that. He is describing the guardrails labs are building around a process they are already running. Every lab has to think carefully about the safety of a process where no human is in the loop. He said that as a constraint they are navigating right now. The question they are sitting with is how much of it to let run without a human watching. (Watch the full interview on YouTube at Two Minute Papers channel)

Ihtesham Ali

67,788 views • 16 days ago

Micron 2024: commodity chip company, margin risk every cycle. Micron 2026: 50% of revenue in supply chain agreements with floor pricing above prior cycle peaks. Jason @jason broke the earnings on The All-In Podcast E278: $9B to $42B revenue in one year. But Gavin Baker Gavin Baker stayed on the structural shift. SCAs with four customers. Price floors AND ceilings. Three global HBM suppliers. You don't value a utility like a commodity. The question is when the market figures that out. $MU. Everything changed and the multiple has not. The full breakdown: Source: All-In Podcast -

Micron 2024: commodity chip company, margin risk every cycle. Micron 2026: 50% of revenue in supply chain agreements with floor pricing above prior cycle peaks. Jason @jason broke the earnings on The All-In Podcast E278: $9B to $42B revenue in one year. But Gavin Baker Gavin Baker stayed on the structural shift. SCAs with four customers. Price floors AND ceilings. Three global HBM suppliers. You don't value a utility like a commodity. The question is when the market figures that out. $MU. Everything changed and the multiple has not. The full breakdown: Source: All-In Podcast -

Podcast Alpha

23,905 views • 12 days ago

Gavin Baker Gavin Baker: HBM DRAM will be 30-40% of all hyperscaler capex in 2027. Baker manages Atreides - his 2025 Micron call is now 14x. This is his next call. HBM requires stacking 12-16 DRAM dies in a single package. Only three companies can do it: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung. No fourth supplier arrives in 2027. Hundreds of billions annually to three firms. Micron's new supply chain agreements lock in floor pricing above prior cycle gross margin peaks. If you still hold $MU at a commodity discount to $ASML and $LRCX, Baker says that discount is no longer earned. Baker's full case at The All-In Podcast: Source: All-In Podcast -

Gavin Baker Gavin Baker: HBM DRAM will be 30-40% of all hyperscaler capex in 2027. Baker manages Atreides - his 2025 Micron call is now 14x. This is his next call. HBM requires stacking 12-16 DRAM dies in a single package. Only three companies can do it: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung. No fourth supplier arrives in 2027. Hundreds of billions annually to three firms. Micron's new supply chain agreements lock in floor pricing above prior cycle gross margin peaks. If you still hold $MU at a commodity discount to $ASML and $LRCX, Baker says that discount is no longer earned. Baker's full case at The All-In Podcast: Source: All-In Podcast -

Podcast Alpha

497,229 views • 12 days ago

Gavin Baker, CIO of the $6.5 billion fund Atreides Management, revealed at Sohn 2026 how he makes money on tech and AI the man who previously managed $17 billion at Fidelity and posted one of the best returns in the industry in the interview he explains why the AI cycle is only just beginning, which chip is the most underrated right now, and why the shortage of power and chips is actually a plus for investors bookmark it if you follow tech and AI, real insights here from a man who manages billions ↓

Gavin Baker, CIO of the $6.5 billion fund Atreides Management, revealed at Sohn 2026 how he makes money on tech and AI the man who previously managed $17 billion at Fidelity and posted one of the best returns in the industry in the interview he explains why the AI cycle is only just beginning, which chip is the most underrated right now, and why the shortage of power and chips is actually a plus for investors bookmark it if you follow tech and AI, real insights here from a man who manages billions ↓

Damir Akaza

726,683 views • 11 days ago

Gavin Baker built a massive position in $ALAB around the AI infrastructure theme, and the stock has now crossed $300. He thinks AI is different and that we are NOT in a bubble. He expresses this thesis behind many of his top holdings, including $NVDA, $MU, and $AMZN.

Gavin Baker built a massive position in $ALAB around the AI infrastructure theme, and the stock has now crossed $300. He thinks AI is different and that we are NOT in a bubble. He expresses this thesis behind many of his top holdings, including $NVDA, $MU, and $AMZN.

Sam Badawi

444,470 views • 1 month ago

🚨Gavin Baker: Apple's ineptitude in AI is shocking, "it almost feels like they're trying to lose." @jason: “Apple has bought back, let this sink in, $700B worth of shares over the past decade.” Gavin Baker: “Maybe they should have spent $200B less and used that for data centers to be a real competitor in AI." "And I just continue to be baffled, you know, they’re comfortable being late to markets, the iPhone was not the first smartphone.” “But I’m shocked at their inaction and ineptitude in AI and how bad the products are from a user perspective. They’re terrible." Jason: "Siri is worse. How is that possible?” Gavin: “Incompetence is indistinguishable from malice, but it almost feels like they’re trying to lose."

🚨Gavin Baker: Apple's ineptitude in AI is shocking, "it almost feels like they're trying to lose." @jason: “Apple has bought back, let this sink in, $700B worth of shares over the past decade.” Gavin Baker: “Maybe they should have spent $200B less and used that for data centers to be a real competitor in AI." "And I just continue to be baffled, you know, they’re comfortable being late to markets, the iPhone was not the first smartphone.” “But I’m shocked at their inaction and ineptitude in AI and how bad the products are from a user perspective. They’re terrible." Jason: "Siri is worse. How is that possible?” Gavin: “Incompetence is indistinguishable from malice, but it almost feels like they’re trying to lose."

The All-In Podcast

224,554 views • 11 months ago

"There's a lot of shady stuff happening, it feels like." Atreides Management's Gavin Baker worries about the "bottleneck bros": "Until the bottleneck bros and AI came along, there was not a lot happening in public small-cap land." "It does feel a little weird to me that you can have a large following on social media, outline your thesis in a $35M market cap company, and send it up like 1,000%. There's a lot of that going on."

"There's a lot of shady stuff happening, it feels like." Atreides Management's Gavin Baker worries about the "bottleneck bros": "Until the bottleneck bros and AI came along, there was not a lot happening in public small-cap land." "It does feel a little weird to me that you can have a large following on social media, outline your thesis in a $35M market cap company, and send it up like 1,000%. There's a lot of that going on."

TBPN

130,153 views • 24 days ago

"This is the first time that OpenAI has released a new model that was not decisively the best." @jason and Gavin Baker discuss OpenAI's GPT-5 release: Jason: " Sam did this tweet, it kind of built a lot of expectation that this would be otherworldly. It wasn't." "Are we hitting either the trough of despair or maybe diminishing returns in the LLM space, where maybe it's feeling incremental, not groundbreaking, when we release these iterations?" Gavin: "Maybe for OpenAI." "This is the first time that OpenAI has released a new model that was not decisively the best." " The one thing about OpenAI is they're very good at product. Just really, really good." "And I just always go back to the statement from Eric Vishria, you know, it might be that if OpenAI never releases another model, they're still a really valuable company."

"This is the first time that OpenAI has released a new model that was not decisively the best." @jason and Gavin Baker discuss OpenAI's GPT-5 release: Jason: " Sam did this tweet, it kind of built a lot of expectation that this would be otherworldly. It wasn't." "Are we hitting either the trough of despair or maybe diminishing returns in the LLM space, where maybe it's feeling incremental, not groundbreaking, when we release these iterations?" Gavin: "Maybe for OpenAI." "This is the first time that OpenAI has released a new model that was not decisively the best." " The one thing about OpenAI is they're very good at product. Just really, really good." "And I just always go back to the statement from Eric Vishria, you know, it might be that if OpenAI never releases another model, they're still a really valuable company."

The All-In Podcast

49,179 views • 11 months ago

Clawdbot creator Peter Steinberger 🦞 says Claude Opus is his favorite model, but OpenAI Codex is the best for coding: "OpenAI is very reliable. For coding, I prefer Codex because it can navigate large codebases. You can prompt and have 95% certainty that it actually works. With Claude Code you need more tricks to get the same." "But character wise, [Opus] behaves so good in a Discord it kind of feels like a human. I've only really experienced that with Opus."

Clawdbot creator Peter Steinberger 🦞 says Claude Opus is his favorite model, but OpenAI Codex is the best for coding: "OpenAI is very reliable. For coding, I prefer Codex because it can navigate large codebases. You can prompt and have 95% certainty that it actually works. With Claude Code you need more tricks to get the same." "But character wise, [Opus] behaves so good in a Discord it kind of feels like a human. I've only really experienced that with Opus."

TBPN

442,659 views • 5 months ago

ANTHROPIC LEAD ENGINEER MAKING $2.3M/YEAR JUST LEAKED A 12-PAGE DOCUMENT - AND GOT FIRED 15 MINUTES AFTER PUBLISHING most developers build loops - but almost every loop breaks in one of five ways, and each failure has a symptom visible from the outside without reading a single line of code > Blind loop - the agent waits for a human to hand it work every morning - automating execution but not discovery > Tangled loop - parallel agents share one directory and overwrite each other parallelism that destroys instead of multiplies > Nodding loop - the agent grades its own work and approves it every time a loop that has never said no to itself is broken > Amnesiac loop - results live only in the context window every morning the system wakes up with no memory of yesterday > Manual loop - no trigger a human presses the button to start it that is not a loop that is a script waiting for a person a real loop finds its own work - remembers what it did has something that can say no never lets two agents touch the same file and fires itself on a timer remove any one of the five - and the loop either breaks or never starts 12 pages that changed how I build agentic systems today

ANTHROPIC LEAD ENGINEER MAKING $2.3M/YEAR JUST LEAKED A 12-PAGE DOCUMENT - AND GOT FIRED 15 MINUTES AFTER PUBLISHING most developers build loops - but almost every loop breaks in one of five ways, and each failure has a symptom visible from the outside without reading a single line of code > Blind loop - the agent waits for a human to hand it work every morning - automating execution but not discovery > Tangled loop - parallel agents share one directory and overwrite each other parallelism that destroys instead of multiplies > Nodding loop - the agent grades its own work and approves it every time a loop that has never said no to itself is broken > Amnesiac loop - results live only in the context window every morning the system wakes up with no memory of yesterday > Manual loop - no trigger a human presses the button to start it that is not a loop that is a script waiting for a person a real loop finds its own work - remembers what it did has something that can say no never lets two agents touch the same file and fires itself on a timer remove any one of the five - and the loop either breaks or never starts 12 pages that changed how I build agentic systems today

Sprytix

151,346 views • 4 days ago

Elon Musk says humans may exit the AI development loop entirely by next year. Musk: “Humans are gradually getting less and less in the loop on the recursive self-improvement. Every successive model is built by the one before it.”

Elon Musk says humans may exit the AI development loop entirely by next year. Musk: “Humans are gradually getting less and less in the loop on the recursive self-improvement. Every successive model is built by the one before it.”

illuminatibot

55,658 views • 3 months ago

Elon Musk: We're in the hard takeoff right now. Every successive AI model is built by the one before it. Peter Diamandis: Do you see Grok doing recursive self-improvement at this point? And how? What's the timeline for AGI and ASI? Give us a sense of that. Elon Musk: Yeah, I think we've been in recursive improvement for a while here. If you mean by, like, recursive self-improvement without a human in the loop, is that what you mean? Peter Diamandis: I do. Elon Musk: On the AI software side, I mean, humans are gradually getting less and less in the loop on the recursive self-improvement. So every successive model is built by the one before it. So that is happening to a large degree, but it's not yet fully automated. It may be there end of this year, but not later than next year. Peter Diamandis: Do you see a hard takeoff at that point? Elon Musk: We're in the hard takeoff. Peter Diamandis: Okay. Elon Musk: Right now, yes. I mean, at this point I go to sleep, there's some massive AI breakthrough, and when I wake up, there's another one. Yes. Yeah, it's hard to keep track, honestly. So, yeah, it's a bit of a head spinner. Moonshots with Peter Diamandis (Abundance Summit 2026), March 18, 2026.

Elon Musk: We're in the hard takeoff right now. Every successive AI model is built by the one before it. Peter Diamandis: Do you see Grok doing recursive self-improvement at this point? And how? What's the timeline for AGI and ASI? Give us a sense of that. Elon Musk: Yeah, I think we've been in recursive improvement for a while here. If you mean by, like, recursive self-improvement without a human in the loop, is that what you mean? Peter Diamandis: I do. Elon Musk: On the AI software side, I mean, humans are gradually getting less and less in the loop on the recursive self-improvement. So every successive model is built by the one before it. So that is happening to a large degree, but it's not yet fully automated. It may be there end of this year, but not later than next year. Peter Diamandis: Do you see a hard takeoff at that point? Elon Musk: We're in the hard takeoff. Peter Diamandis: Okay. Elon Musk: Right now, yes. I mean, at this point I go to sleep, there's some massive AI breakthrough, and when I wake up, there's another one. Yes. Yeah, it's hard to keep track, honestly. So, yeah, it's a bit of a head spinner. Moonshots with Peter Diamandis (Abundance Summit 2026), March 18, 2026.

ELON CLIPS

19,692 views • 13 days ago

Atreides' Gavin Baker says that once Starship is reusable, the economics of orbital compute crush the economics of terrestrial compute. He lays out the math: "Once $SPCX can reuse Starship, the math for orbital compute becomes pretty compelling." "It's $60B to bring on a GW terrestrially. $25B is power and cooling — you don't need that in space. And so the right comp for that $35B in IT equipment — GPU, CPU, switches, memory, storage — is that $25B [in power and cooling] vs. the cost of launch." "And once Starship is reusable, I think the cost to launch is $5B. So that means you can put a GW into space for [$40B]. The GW on earth is $60B."

Atreides' Gavin Baker says that once Starship is reusable, the economics of orbital compute crush the economics of terrestrial compute. He lays out the math: "Once $SPCX can reuse Starship, the math for orbital compute becomes pretty compelling." "It's $60B to bring on a GW terrestrially. $25B is power and cooling — you don't need that in space. And so the right comp for that $35B in IT equipment — GPU, CPU, switches, memory, storage — is that $25B [in power and cooling] vs. the cost of launch." "And once Starship is reusable, I think the cost to launch is $5B. So that means you can put a GW into space for [$40B]. The GW on earth is $60B."

TBPN

102,778 views • 24 days ago

📊 IPO Breakdown: Gavin Baker on CoreWeave Gavin Baker on E221: 🚩 Red flags caused some negativity ahead of the IPO: -- "Investors on X are pretty negative on CoreWeave. I think there's maybe a little bit of negativity in the market." -- "They had to reduce the range, lower the price, and everyone is very convinced this is a commodity business, loads of debt, loads of CapEx." 🐂 Gavin points out the bull case: "Wall Street consensus has been wrong before, and I do think CoreWeave runs these big GPU clusters as well as anyone." "And there aren't that many people on planet Earth who can run them well." "What may be underappreciated about CoreWeave is it's actually really hard to run these big training clusters." "Everybody thinks it's easy, but to synchronize tens of thousands of GPUs where they're melting or cables are being unplugged and you lose a bunch of training data when it happens." "It may not be the commodity that everyone thinks it is, and it may turn out that it's much harder to do than people think." 🏪 Compares it to running a national retail brand: "In America, if you can pick any retail category, and if you can run 1000 stores in 50 different states with different preferences and have those stores well lit, clean, stocked by friendly employees with the right stuff in stock, you will create a business that is worth well over $10B." "And that sounds easy, but very few companies have been able to do it."

The All-In Podcast

33,723 views • 1 year ago

“Reasoning has fundamentally changed the economics of these frontier models.” Gavin Baker says reasoning lets scaled user bases unlock a new flywheel. Users improve the model, and the model improves the product. Gavin Baker

“Reasoning has fundamentally changed the economics of these frontier models.” Gavin Baker says reasoning lets scaled user bases unlock a new flywheel. Users improve the model, and the model improves the product. Gavin Baker

a16z

23,671 views • 8 months ago

Atreides Management's @gavinsbaker says the bottleneck trade is nearing its end. "That was the game for the last year. The next game is what has enduring franchise value on the other side of these bottlenecks, whenever that is."

Atreides Management's @gavinsbaker says the bottleneck trade is nearing its end. "That was the game for the last year. The next game is what has enduring franchise value on the other side of these bottlenecks, whenever that is."

TBPN

251,936 views • 24 days ago

The highest-leverage insight in software right now: The best way to build a product that continuously improves is not to build the product. It's to build the AI infrastructure that builds the product in an iterative, automated loop.

The highest-leverage insight in software right now: The best way to build a product that continuously improves is not to build the product. It's to build the AI infrastructure that builds the product in an iterative, automated loop.

Nexus

11,100 views • 3 months ago