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Will the Fed Tighten Soon So It Can Ease Even More Later? Darius Dale joined Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, and Annmarie Hordern to discuss why the Fed may tighten financial conditions in the near term to create scope for much easier policy later, and why any meaningful pullback in... show more

42 Macro 🇺🇸

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Will Burgeoning Core Inflation Pressures from AI Capex Force the Fed to Crash the Stock Market? Darius Dale joined our friend Romaine Bostick on Bloomberg’s The Close to break down why The Fed is rapidly falling behind the curve as core inflation pressures continue to build across the buoyant US economy. While AI is unquestionably disinflationary over the long term, it is acting as a massive demand shock for resources and capital in the interim. This is adding upward pressure on inflation and yields.

Will Burgeoning Core Inflation Pressures from AI Capex Force the Fed to Crash the Stock Market? Darius Dale joined our friend Romaine Bostick on Bloomberg’s The Close to break down why The Fed is rapidly falling behind the curve as core inflation pressures continue to build across the buoyant US economy. While AI is unquestionably disinflationary over the long term, it is acting as a massive demand shock for resources and capital in the interim. This is adding upward pressure on inflation and yields.

42 Macro 🇺🇸

31,268 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

TOM LEE: 7,800 FIRST, THEN A 10 TO 15% PULLBACK WORTH BUYING He still thinks the market is in an up phase before a correction comes later for understandable reasons: - Near term, he sees 7,700 to 7,800 first - Then a 10 to 15% pullback driven by the Fed, a major IPO unlock, and petroleum shortages - But earnings are strong, investors are offsides, and he thinks fund managers buy the dip

TOM LEE: 7,800 FIRST, THEN A 10 TO 15% PULLBACK WORTH BUYING He still thinks the market is in an up phase before a correction comes later for understandable reasons: - Near term, he sees 7,700 to 7,800 first - Then a 10 to 15% pullback driven by the Fed, a major IPO unlock, and petroleum shortages - But earnings are strong, investors are offsides, and he thinks fund managers buy the dip

Tom Lee Tracker (Not actually Tom)

144,272 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Will the Bond Market Break the AI Buildout? Darius Dale joined Cheryl Casone on Mornings with Maria to discuss the growing financing pressures behind the AI infrastructure buildout, why bond markets are flashing warning signs, and what it means for investors navigating today's macro environment.

Will the Bond Market Break the AI Buildout? Darius Dale joined Cheryl Casone on Mornings with Maria to discuss the growing financing pressures behind the AI infrastructure buildout, why bond markets are flashing warning signs, and what it means for investors navigating today's macro environment.

42 Macro 🇺🇸

55,443 görüntüleme • 18 gün önce

🚨 FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH JUST MADE IT CLEAR: THE FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION IS NOT OVER. Key points from the FOMC press conference: • The Fed held rates in a 9–3 vote after a heated internal debate. • Warsh said inflation is still too high and the 2% target is non-negotiable. • The Fed is pulling back from forward guidance and will let markets react directly to incoming data. • Treasury yields have already tightened financial conditions, even without another rate hike. • One soft CPI report will not change policy. The Fed is focused on the broader trend. • The economy and labor market remain solid, while AI investment is driving a major surge in business spending. • A hold does not mean the Fed has paused. Warsh called it “watchful thinking.” • If inflation rises while employment stays strong, the Fed will be more inclined to tighten again. The message was simple: The Fed is not declaring victory, and rate hikes are still on the table.

🚨 FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH JUST MADE IT CLEAR: THE FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION IS NOT OVER. Key points from the FOMC press conference: • The Fed held rates in a 9–3 vote after a heated internal debate. • Warsh said inflation is still too high and the 2% target is non-negotiable. • The Fed is pulling back from forward guidance and will let markets react directly to incoming data. • Treasury yields have already tightened financial conditions, even without another rate hike. • One soft CPI report will not change policy. The Fed is focused on the broader trend. • The economy and labor market remain solid, while AI investment is driving a major surge in business spending. • A hold does not mean the Fed has paused. Warsh called it “watchful thinking.” • If inflation rises while employment stays strong, the Fed will be more inclined to tighten again. The message was simple: The Fed is not declaring victory, and rate hikes are still on the table.

Crypto Rover

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Here's Why 42 Macro 🇺🇸 Clients Were Long Bullish Paradigm C Months Before Wall Street | May 3, 2025 After avoiding most of the drawdown due to timely sales in late-February and early-March, KISS and Dr. Mo started buying Bitcoin and Stocks back in mid-April and late-April, respectively. Why? Because they were front running even our own understanding of Paradigm C—the secularly bullish research view we authored on April 23 and codified on May 3. Enjoy these clips from our May 3, 2025 Around the Horn webcast which detail the institutional research and risk management insights supporting our Paradigm C theme—which may persist for years to come.

Here's Why 42 Macro 🇺🇸 Clients Were Long Bullish Paradigm C Months Before Wall Street | May 3, 2025 After avoiding most of the drawdown due to timely sales in late-February and early-March, KISS and Dr. Mo started buying Bitcoin and Stocks back in mid-April and late-April, respectively. Why? Because they were front running even our own understanding of Paradigm C—the secularly bullish research view we authored on April 23 and codified on May 3. Enjoy these clips from our May 3, 2025 Around the Horn webcast which detail the institutional research and risk management insights supporting our Paradigm C theme—which may persist for years to come.

Darius Dale

30,290 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Financial markets were broken by the Federal Reserve. It is very unlikely we will see bear markets that last 18-months or longer. I sit down with Phil Rosen to discuss how this happened and why smart investors are buying assets and holding for the long-term. Enjoy! YouTube: Apple: Spotify: 0:00 - Intro 0:35 - Massive Year in Bitcoin & S&P 500 6:45 - Forever Bull Market?? 20:00 - Risks Of Perpetual Bull Market? 27:00 - The Feds Role 38:00 - Why We Will Never Go Back To Multi-Year Bear Market

Financial markets were broken by the Federal Reserve. It is very unlikely we will see bear markets that last 18-months or longer. I sit down with Phil Rosen to discuss how this happened and why smart investors are buying assets and holding for the long-term. Enjoy! YouTube: Apple: Spotify: 0:00 - Intro 0:35 - Massive Year in Bitcoin & S&P 500 6:45 - Forever Bull Market?? 20:00 - Risks Of Perpetual Bull Market? 27:00 - The Feds Role 38:00 - Why We Will Never Go Back To Multi-Year Bear Market

Anthony Pompliano 🌪

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Here’s Why POTUS Should Fire Jay Powell and Replace Him with ChatGPT | August 2, 2025 With the Powell Fed likely committing its fifth major policy mistake of Jerome’s tenure (e.g., overtightened in 4Q18, too late to ease in 1Q20, too late to tighten in 2021-22, and asleep at the bank supervision wheel in 1Q23), the time has come for the administration to take corrective action. The Fed must begin shedding many of the broken academic THEORIES that continue to misguide the institution into producing bad outcomes for the American public. This requires a change in leadership and an infusion of fresh ideas to combat legacy groupthink. It may require amending the Federal Reserve Act itself. The stakes are simply too high in this Fourth Turning for continued monetary policy failure. Enjoy this clip from our August 2 Around the Horn presentation which details why investors who fail to position for significant regime change at the Fed over the next few years will continue to underperform those of us who have been anticipating this outcome for years. ❤

Here’s Why POTUS Should Fire Jay Powell and Replace Him with ChatGPT | August 2, 2025 With the Powell Fed likely committing its fifth major policy mistake of Jerome’s tenure (e.g., overtightened in 4Q18, too late to ease in 1Q20, too late to tighten in 2021-22, and asleep at the bank supervision wheel in 1Q23), the time has come for the administration to take corrective action. The Fed must begin shedding many of the broken academic THEORIES that continue to misguide the institution into producing bad outcomes for the American public. This requires a change in leadership and an infusion of fresh ideas to combat legacy groupthink. It may require amending the Federal Reserve Act itself. The stakes are simply too high in this Fourth Turning for continued monetary policy failure. Enjoy this clip from our August 2 Around the Horn presentation which details why investors who fail to position for significant regime change at the Fed over the next few years will continue to underperform those of us who have been anticipating this outcome for years. ❤

Darius Dale

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Rick Rule lays out the current state of the Precious metals market perfectly. "I'm old enough to remember the decade of the 1970s where the gold price ran 27 fold. 4 times in that decade there were pullbacks of 25% or more and in 1975 the market pullback by 50% without derailing the bull market... It's more important to focus on the reasons why the bull market exists." Has the US debt disappeared? Will the debt ever be paid off? Will the FED ever stop printing money? Until the answer to the above questions is yes, then the Gold and Silver bull markets are intact.

Rick Rule lays out the current state of the Precious metals market perfectly. "I'm old enough to remember the decade of the 1970s where the gold price ran 27 fold. 4 times in that decade there were pullbacks of 25% or more and in 1975 the market pullback by 50% without derailing the bull market... It's more important to focus on the reasons why the bull market exists." Has the US debt disappeared? Will the debt ever be paid off? Will the FED ever stop printing money? Until the answer to the above questions is yes, then the Gold and Silver bull markets are intact.

TheGladiator

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Today, I joined Charles V Payne to discuss how volatility means opportunity. The first trade war in 2018 by Donald J. Trump ended up being the buying opportunity of the decade, though the anxiety-driven moves at the time seemed like the world was ending and the stock market was crashing. Near-term volatility can equal long-term profitability, if you know what to look for and where to focus. Learn more below: #stockmarketcrash #Magnificent7 $NDX

Today, I joined Charles V Payne to discuss how volatility means opportunity. The first trade war in 2018 by Donald J. Trump ended up being the buying opportunity of the decade, though the anxiety-driven moves at the time seemed like the world was ending and the stock market was crashing. Near-term volatility can equal long-term profitability, if you know what to look for and where to focus. Learn more below: #stockmarketcrash #Magnificent7 $NDX

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Larry Fink was largely responsible for the housing market collapse in 2008, then the Treasury and Fed hired him to manage the distressed assets he helped create, now he’s using that money to buy up housing so he can rent it back to you.

Larry Fink was largely responsible for the housing market collapse in 2008, then the Treasury and Fed hired him to manage the distressed assets he helped create, now he’s using that money to buy up housing so he can rent it back to you.

Dan Hollaway

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Watch This If You Want To Fully Understand Why The Fed NEEDS A 3% Inflation Target The politicized debate surrounding Fed independence in mainstream media = trees. Structural regime change at the Fed = forest. Focus on the forest, not the trees. This is not a matter of what is likely to occur with US monetary policy over the long term, but rather, what must occur for the economy and asset markets to function properly in a fiscal dominance regime. In our Fourth Turning-inspired view, it would be a policy mistake for the Trump administration to not try to catalyze regime change at the Fed. Watch these excerpts from our August 2, 2025 and August 9, 2025 Around the Horn webcasts to learn why.❤️

Watch This If You Want To Fully Understand Why The Fed NEEDS A 3% Inflation Target The politicized debate surrounding Fed independence in mainstream media = trees. Structural regime change at the Fed = forest. Focus on the forest, not the trees. This is not a matter of what is likely to occur with US monetary policy over the long term, but rather, what must occur for the economy and asset markets to function properly in a fiscal dominance regime. In our Fourth Turning-inspired view, it would be a policy mistake for the Trump administration to not try to catalyze regime change at the Fed. Watch these excerpts from our August 2, 2025 and August 9, 2025 Around the Horn webcasts to learn why.❤️

Darius Dale

58,242 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce

One of the most ridiculous "theories" about the current risk selloff especially Bitcoin and crypto is that the market is having a tantrum KC Jeff at the Fed won't let the FOMC cut rates in December. Delaying a quarter-point cut to the fed funds rate by a few months is responsible for BTC down by 33%? It's beyond stupid. But in the absence of knowledge and understanding, the mainstream goes full Pavlov, defaulting to the Fed. Fed. Fed. Fed Fed is irrelevant. They're rate cuts react to problems, which is why they're going to be cutting no matter how much Schmid protests (see: every market that matters). What's going on with Bitcoin has almost nothing to do with Bitcoin - it's a risk asset that is being sold because risky investors are now getting very worried about, well, taking risks. That's why Bitcoin is now correlated with junk bond spreads. Flat Beveridge rules, not the Fed.

One of the most ridiculous "theories" about the current risk selloff especially Bitcoin and crypto is that the market is having a tantrum KC Jeff at the Fed won't let the FOMC cut rates in December. Delaying a quarter-point cut to the fed funds rate by a few months is responsible for BTC down by 33%? It's beyond stupid. But in the absence of knowledge and understanding, the mainstream goes full Pavlov, defaulting to the Fed. Fed. Fed. Fed Fed is irrelevant. They're rate cuts react to problems, which is why they're going to be cutting no matter how much Schmid protests (see: every market that matters). What's going on with Bitcoin has almost nothing to do with Bitcoin - it's a risk asset that is being sold because risky investors are now getting very worried about, well, taking risks. That's why Bitcoin is now correlated with junk bond spreads. Flat Beveridge rules, not the Fed.

Jeffrey P. Snider

17,442 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

The Fed Is Blowing Bubbles in Stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin… KISS Will Help You Sell Near the Top Enjoy this excerpt from our December 5, 2025, Macro Scouting Report webcast in which we accurately forecasted two of the most important structural changes to US monetary policy in our lifetimes: 1. The Fed will lean into the long-term outlook for productivity growth to implement increasingly — and perhaps unjustifiably — dovish monetary policy; and 2. The Fed will sacrifice Main Street to save Wall Street by restarting QE during a nationwide affordability crisis. The Fourth Turning took a big step forward today. If your portfolio is overweight Bonds relative to the 42 Macro 🇺🇸 KISS Model Portfolio's 30% target allocation for Gold and 10% target allocation for Bitcoin, it is likely your family will increasingly fall victim to the historic Cantillon effect that we’ve identified in our research as a key driver of the K-Shaped Economy Crisis (KEC). If you don’t know what “Cantillon effect” means, look it up now because it is increasingly the #1 thing standing between you and a comfortable retirement. 42 Macro is here to make sure you don’t slide down to or get trapped at the bottom of the “K.” Godspeed, my friends. —Skipper💜

The Fed Is Blowing Bubbles in Stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin… KISS Will Help You Sell Near the Top Enjoy this excerpt from our December 5, 2025, Macro Scouting Report webcast in which we accurately forecasted two of the most important structural changes to US monetary policy in our lifetimes: 1. The Fed will lean into the long-term outlook for productivity growth to implement increasingly — and perhaps unjustifiably — dovish monetary policy; and 2. The Fed will sacrifice Main Street to save Wall Street by restarting QE during a nationwide affordability crisis. The Fourth Turning took a big step forward today. If your portfolio is overweight Bonds relative to the 42 Macro 🇺🇸 KISS Model Portfolio's 30% target allocation for Gold and 10% target allocation for Bitcoin, it is likely your family will increasingly fall victim to the historic Cantillon effect that we’ve identified in our research as a key driver of the K-Shaped Economy Crisis (KEC). If you don’t know what “Cantillon effect” means, look it up now because it is increasingly the #1 thing standing between you and a comfortable retirement. 42 Macro is here to make sure you don’t slide down to or get trapped at the bottom of the “K.” Godspeed, my friends. —Skipper💜

Darius Dale

45,252 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

TOM LEE: WHY I'M BUYING THE DIP EVEN IF IT LOOKS LIKE CATCHING A FALLING KNIFE He says the pullback may look risky, but the setup still looks buyable to him: - He thinks these pullbacks are probably viable - Momentum has worked over the long term and is central to many quant systems - People may be calling the cycle too early as robots and machines could make it a much longer cycle

TOM LEE: WHY I'M BUYING THE DIP EVEN IF IT LOOKS LIKE CATCHING A FALLING KNIFE He says the pullback may look risky, but the setup still looks buyable to him: - He thinks these pullbacks are probably viable - Momentum has worked over the long term and is central to many quant systems - People may be calling the cycle too early as robots and machines could make it a much longer cycle

Tom Lee Tracker (Not actually Tom)

39,654 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Why does the West try to be more Muslim than Muslims? What happened to Spain will soon happen to England, and it will be even worse. The Muslim Brotherhood will be waiting in London to welcome the wave of illegal immigrants. Former ISIS and Al-Qaeda members will not come as terrorists, but as activists. For terrorism does not always enter by its own name,it first comes as activism, and only later shows its true face.

Why does the West try to be more Muslim than Muslims? What happened to Spain will soon happen to England, and it will be even worse. The Muslim Brotherhood will be waiting in London to welcome the wave of illegal immigrants. Former ISIS and Al-Qaeda members will not come as terrorists, but as activists. For terrorism does not always enter by its own name,it first comes as activism, and only later shows its true face.

Amjad Taha أمجد طه

91,845 görüntüleme • 13 gün önce

Why $HYPE can go to $50-100b explains why Hyperliquid could be the one in a million project to disrupt the centralized exchange space… And why he bought $HYPE on launch and kept buying it even as the price went higher Podcast out tomorrow!

Why $HYPE can go to $50-100b explains why Hyperliquid could be the one in a million project to disrupt the centralized exchange space… And why he bought $HYPE on launch and kept buying it even as the price went higher Podcast out tomorrow!

MR SHIFT 🦁

51,147 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce