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With companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI potentially heading toward IPOs, investors are already debating which one will be the biggest winner. My view is that trying to pick a single champion is a mistake. SpaceX gives you exposure to Elon Musk and the success of Starlink, which is...

34,397 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat •via X (Twitter)

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Chamath was given a simple choice, 100 shares of Anthropic, 100 shares of OpenAI, 100 shares of SpaceX, pick one stack (Save this). He picked SpaceX without hesitation, and his reasoning is worth unpacking fully because it cuts to the heart of how the best investors think about technology bets. His take on OpenAI and Anthropic was actually generous. He acknowledged that Anthropic is the superior enterprise product, his own fund uses it as their foundational model and that ChatGPT has built one of the most powerful consumer brands in the history of technology. But the case for SpaceX is built on something completely different, it is not one business, but rather a platform for multiple businesses that compound off each other. Start with what Starlink already is today. Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, growing roughly 50% year over year, and represented 61% of SpaceX's total $18.7 billion in revenue. The EBITDA margin on the connectivity segment hit 63%, compared to 38–39% for the largest traditional telecom companies on earth. Subscriber count went from 2.3 million in 2023 to over 10.3 million by Q1 2026, spanning more than 160 countries, and revenue is projected to reach $15.5 billion in 2026. Chamath Palihapitiya core insight is that the global communications infrastructure is profoundly broken and he is right. Roughly 2.6 billion people globally still lack reliable internet access, and even in developed markets, rural connectivity is patchy, expensive, and controlled by legacy monopolies with no incentive to upgrade. Starlink is a replacement cycle for an entire layer of global infrastructure that has barely changed in 30 years. Every maritime vessel, every commercial aircraft, every military unit, every rural hospital, every developing-world government that wants connectivity now has one viable option that didn't exist five years ago. The maritime and aviation segments alone carry ARPUs of $250 to $25,000 per month per customer, orders of magnitude above the consumer subscription. But Chamath's most interesting point is what he called embedded optionality, the idea that SpaceX's business model doesn't stop at earth. SpaceX now has the only fully reusable heavy-lift rocket system in the world with Starship, and it is the only company currently capable of launching the next generation of Starlink V3 satellites that carry roughly 10 times more capacity than the current constellation. Every new market SpaceX opens on earth, direct-to-cell with T-Mobile, enterprise contracts, government agreements becomes a template that can theoretically be replicated the moment humans establish a permanent presence elsewhere. A Starlink-equivalent for a lunar base, a Mars colony, or an orbital station is the same product with a different launch address. Anthropic and OpenAI are betting on winning a model race where the finish line keeps moving. SpaceX is betting on owning the physical infrastructure layer of the next era of human civilization, on earth and eventually beyond it. One of those bets has a floor and the other doesn't. That is why Chamath picked SpaceX and Elon Musk

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582,462 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

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WhaleTwits

148,383 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd on the AI bubble "pop" "we're at maximum AI hype right now" "they're [punching] out three IPOs, SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI" "a lot of these companies... [are] not going to go away" "[But] OpenAI may go to zero and Anthropic may go to zero, [and] their assets will be bought up for pennies on the dollar" This clip of Dowd (Edward Dowd), a former BlackRock fund manager and co-founder of Phinance Technologies, is taken from an interview with Greg Hunter (Greg Hunter) posted to Rumble on May 29, 2026. ----------------Partial transcription of clip--------------- "What it means is eventually all this CapEx spending stops because the credit markets and I suspect— we're at maximum AI hype right now because they're trying to punch out three IPOs, SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI. And these guys are not making enough money to justify the amount of CapEx they're doing. "The other thing that I think is going to potentially blow up the AI bubble is they don't have enough power to plug in all this CapEx into. "So they're announcing all this CapEx, they're pre-buying equipment and chips but they can't plug it into the power grid. We just don't have enough power to justify all these data center buildouts. The constraining factor is power. "And look, there's a disconnect. I think Wall Street is less focused on the public outrage that's going on that you can see happening all across the country. People are protesting these data centers. College, students are booing commencement speakers that talk about AI. "There seems to be a very, very large anti AI sentiment going on out there which will muck up the works and slow down the data center buildouts politically. "And if you slow down the capex build out, the valuations of all these companies go a lot lower because they rely on you know, exponential growth and when the growth doesn't show up at these valuations they'll pop... "And look a lot of these companies that are doing the AI, Microsoft, Oracle, Google, they're not going to go away. They'll just cut back their CapEx. They won't go bankrupt but their valuations and their earnings will go lower as they write off all these mal investments. So it's not like a lot of companies are going to go bankrupt. I mean, OpenAI may go to zero and Anthropic may go to zero, but their assets will be bought up for pennies on the dollar."

Sense Receptor

44,740 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

The next Mag 7 may still be private: "All of us in this room would probably think of.. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Revolut, Databricks.” “If you're going to outperform the index over a long period of time, you're going to need exposure to these companies.” Thomas Laffont, Coatue COATUE coatue.thomas Upfront Ventures "Regardless, if you think about the innovation of these late-stage private companies—or one thing we kind of look at is the Mag 7, which has been a significant driver of returns in the public market over the past few years—has essentially kind of been flat over the past year-ish. And that's because Microsoft, as an example, I think has lost almost a trillion dollars of value over that timeframe as people are questioning their positioning kind of in AI. So then that leads you to think, “Well, what would the next Mag 7 look like?” Or who would be other candidates to kind of fit into the index of the future? And I think the names that all of us in this room would probably think of are names like SpaceX, or names like OpenAI, Anthropic, Revolut, Databricks. So I do think it's a really important class of companies. I do think if you're going to want to outperform the index over a long period of time, you're going to need exposure to these companies. Some of them will probably go public in the next 12 to 24 months, so that'll be kind of one impact of it. But it is unbelievable the amount of innovation that is now coming from this group of companies."

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15,258 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten