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Xi Jinping just purged China’s top generals. Some say it makes war less likely. Others warn it makes China far more dangerous—especially for Taiwan. History suggests purges don’t stop wars. They often come right before them.

10,660 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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“Even if you follow Xi Jinping, you still will be purged. So the hidden rule is broken. I think that will be the end of the whole system,” says China analyst Heng He. With the recent purges of two top military generals, Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, five of the seven members of China’s Central Military Commission have effectively been purged or removed. Only two remain, one of which is Xi Jinping himself. Zhang Youxia is known to have been a longtime ally of Xi Jinping, but was purged nonetheless. The CCP, like a mafia, is governed by unwritten rules. Now, Xi Jinping has broken all the CCP’s hidden rules, He says. “Now nobody knows whom to trust,” and that’s a big problem for the CCP. Xi has essentially purged the two remaining generals with actual battlefield experience. The Chinese military, Heng explains, is different from armed forces in the rest of the world. It’s ruled by the Chinese Communist Party and its primary function has been to protect the Communist Party—not to fight wars overseas. The CCP’s leaders, he explains, depend on the protection of the military, but at the same time they do not trust the military: “They are afraid that they will turn the gun to the wrong side.” But, in order to conquer Taiwan which, Heng tells me, is Xi’s lifelong dream, the generals must be put in full control: “Xi Jinping cannot fight himself, right? He has to give the command to the military leaders. That means the military has the power to turn the gun backwards.” With the removal of General Zhang Youxia—who appears to have opposed Xi Jinping’s views on an invasion of Taiwan—Xi removed an obstacle - but at what price? “The chain of command in the military is totally broken…This never happened in the history of communist rule,” he said.

Jan Jekielek

47,430 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten