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You may have seen SpaceX bought some spectrum from EchoStar for $17,000,000,000. That could be on-par, or more, than they've spent on the entire Starship program to-date. Not kidding. Find out why:

Ryan Caton

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36,253 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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SpaceX was just rumored to be worth $800B But retail investors are still locked out Unless you buy $SATS It's the next retail favorite: a SpaceX treasury play trading at a HUGE discount to NAV. Shoutout @transhumanica for being the first to call this 🧵🚀 You know Echostar ($SATS) as the OG telecom behind Dish Network. It was on death's doorstep but 3 blockbuster Spectrum deals changed everything. 1. $17B deal with SpaceX (half stock/half cash) 2. $23B spectrum sale to AT&T 3. Another $2.6B deal with SpaceX (all stock) These deals turned $SATS into a SpaceX proxy. It got $11.1B in SpaceX stock at a $400B valuation. If the $800B is true. $SATS is now sitting on $22.2B of SpaceX stock and tens of billions in cash and other assets. But its market cap was only $23B after the market close Friday (even after +10% pop) So what is $SATS actually worth? Well even if these rumors are false the math is: ~$11.1B in SpaceX ~$17B in projected net cash ~$6.4B in other spectrum assets ~$3B Boost mobile So ~$37.5B NAV. SATS popped 10% Friday because of the rumor and only closed at a $23B. Let's compute NAV with SpaceX worth $800B. ~$22.2B in SpaceX ~$17B in projected net cash ~$6.4B in other spectrum assets ~$3B Boost mobile So ~$48.6B NAV Echostar is trading at ~100% discount to its balance sheet if this valuation rumor is true. What's crazy is that $SATS should be trading at a PREMIUM to net asset value. The closest publicly traded SpaceX proxy is DXYZ. It's a closed-end fund with about 50% of its assets in SpaceX. It trades at a whopping 270% premium. $3 for every $1 of SpaceX... Now you may be wondering why I’m projecting $SATS to have $17B in cash despite currently having $27B of debt, and the SpaceX and AT&T deals only offering around $30B cash. This is probably the biggest thing that investors don’t currently understand. The Echostar holding company isn’t responsible for paying off the debt of some of its subsidiaries like Dish Network and Hughes Network Systems. These account for around $14B of that debt. Echostar only needs to pay off $11.4B of its debt because its tied to its spectrum assets as collateral. Hence $17B in cash. It's worth noting that the deals aren't done yet + SpaceX $800B is a rumor. But the government wants these deals done and SpaceX will be worth $2-3T by 2030. So how can you not get in and buy discounted SpaceX stock through $SATS. Another reason $SATS will explode? 95% of Echostar's float is held by institutions. That remaining 5% will get attacked by retail once its figured out. At the time I'm making this thread $SATS jumped 10% Sunday night pre-market. That's +20% in 72 hours. The market is waking up but it's still very confused. Big thanks to @transhumanica who published the original thesis on Echostar being a SpaceX proxy. You MUST follow him as he was behind the $KRKNF Anduril proxy TOO. He's got some of the best research in the game and a must follow on this platform if you want real alpha. If you want to stay up to date with $SATS, I'm going to cover it more here Michael Sikand 🦑 Will also discuss on my stream tmrw with WOLF I highly recommend you just watch my YouTube video as it's far more comprehensive than this thread.

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