Video wird geladen...

Video konnte nicht geladen werden

Beim Laden dieses Videos ist ein Problem aufgetreten. Dies könnte an einem vorübergehenden Netzwerkproblem liegen oder das Video ist möglicherweise nicht verfügbar.

"Zero interest rates aren't normal. That’s for someone who's dying." 🚨 Patrick Boyle 💎 breaks down why the push for "left-wing style economics", like doubling the national debt to mimic Japan, is an absolute recipe for disaster. The reality? Japan has faced three lost decades, and those "cheap" interest... show more

TRIGGERnometry

293,486 subscribers

32,130 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat •via X (Twitter)

Anya Rossi• Live Now

Private livecam show

0 Kommentare

Keine Kommentare verfügbar

Kommentare vom Original-Post werden hier angezeigt

Ähnliche Videos

The Bank of Japan Just Sent a Warning to the Entire Financial World by Raising Its Rate to a 31 Year High. Does this signal the end of the world’s cheapest money? Japan just raised interest rates to 1%, the highest level since 1995. That may sound small, but for Japan, it is a major macro turning point. After decades of zero rates, deflation, and ultra-cheap money, the Bank of Japan is now trying to normalize policy while facing a weak yen, rising imported inflation, higher energy costs, and one of the largest government debt burdens in the world. In this video, we discuss why Japan’s 1% rate hike matters far beyond Japan, from the yen carry trade and global liquidity to Japanese bonds, equities, inflation, and everyday life.

The Bank of Japan Just Sent a Warning to the Entire Financial World by Raising Its Rate to a 31 Year High. Does this signal the end of the world’s cheapest money? Japan just raised interest rates to 1%, the highest level since 1995. That may sound small, but for Japan, it is a major macro turning point. After decades of zero rates, deflation, and ultra-cheap money, the Bank of Japan is now trying to normalize policy while facing a weak yen, rising imported inflation, higher energy costs, and one of the largest government debt burdens in the world. In this video, we discuss why Japan’s 1% rate hike matters far beyond Japan, from the yen carry trade and global liquidity to Japanese bonds, equities, inflation, and everyday life.

YCC Macro

50,861 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

$Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds at $1.2 trillion. For years, Japanese pension funds, insurance companies, and banks borrowed at 0% interest rates at home and invested that money in US Treasury bonds yielding 4-5%. This "carry trade" was essentially free money—borrow for nothing and earn solid returns with minimal risk. They turned this into a $20 trillion global trade (with 1.2 trillion being US Treasury bonds). But the game is changing. In November 2025, Japan announced a $130 billion stimulus package—money the government planned to spend to boost the economy. Normally, this would be good news. Instead, Japan's interest rates spiked to 1.8%, the highest in 20 years. Why? The bond market was sending a clear message: with Japan's debt already at 234% of GDP, investors have lost confidence in its ability to keep borrowing. This reaction ended the zero-rate environment that made the carry trade work. Now Japanese rates are at 1.8% while US rates are around 4.2%. The gap is shrinking, which means the carry trade isn't as profitable anymore. Japanese institutions might start selling their US Treasury bonds and bringing that money back home where rates are now competitive. If Japanese institutions start bringing that money home—even a fraction of it—the impact on US markets could be massive. When lots of people sell bonds, bond prices drop. When bond prices drop, interest rates go up. Higher US interest rates mean higher costs for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards for regular Americans. It also means the US government has to pay more to borrow money—and they're already paying $1 trillion per year just on interest for existing debt. The world's largest creditor-debtor relationship is entering uncharted territory. PS - I've recorded a 22-minute video covering this in more detail, as well as which sectors (and stocks) will benefit/suffer when this unfolds. If you want access to it, comment "JAPAN" and I'll DM it to you.$

Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds at $1.2 trillion. For years, Japanese pension funds, insurance companies, and banks borrowed at 0% interest rates at home and invested that money in US Treasury bonds yielding 4-5%. This "carry trade" was essentially free money—borrow for nothing and earn solid returns with minimal risk. They turned this into a $20 trillion global trade (with 1.2 trillion being US Treasury bonds). But the game is changing. In November 2025, Japan announced a $130 billion stimulus package—money the government planned to spend to boost the economy. Normally, this would be good news. Instead, Japan's interest rates spiked to 1.8%, the highest in 20 years. Why? The bond market was sending a clear message: with Japan's debt already at 234% of GDP, investors have lost confidence in its ability to keep borrowing. This reaction ended the zero-rate environment that made the carry trade work. Now Japanese rates are at 1.8% while US rates are around 4.2%. The gap is shrinking, which means the carry trade isn't as profitable anymore. Japanese institutions might start selling their US Treasury bonds and bringing that money back home where rates are now competitive. If Japanese institutions start bringing that money home—even a fraction of it—the impact on US markets could be massive. When lots of people sell bonds, bond prices drop. When bond prices drop, interest rates go up. Higher US interest rates mean higher costs for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards for regular Americans. It also means the US government has to pay more to borrow money—and they're already paying $1 trillion per year just on interest for existing debt. The world's largest creditor-debtor relationship is entering uncharted territory. PS - I've recorded a 22-minute video covering this in more detail, as well as which sectors (and stocks) will benefit/suffer when this unfolds. If you want access to it, comment "JAPAN" and I'll DM it to you.

Felix Prehn 🐶

225,388 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

🚨WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING TOMORROW!! The Bank of Japan will officially raise interest rates to 1.00%. Japan hasn't seen rates at 1.00% since the 1990s. And if you think Japan has no impact on global markets... YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG. Every time BOJ hiked rates, Bitcoin dumped by 20%+ in days. And this isn't just about Bitcoin. It's about global liquidity. It's about capital flows. And it's about a market that isn't prepared for what's coming. Let me explain. The last time Japan operated in this interest rate range, the global financial system was already showing signs of stress. In 1994, the infamous "Great Bond Massacre" wiped out roughly $1.5 TRILLION in bond market value. Then the pressure intensified. In early 1995, the Japanese yen went PARABOLIC. On April 19, 1995, USD/JPY fell to 79.75 - the lowest level ever recorded. Now here's the part almost nobody talks about. Japan tightened policy... Then was forced to reverse course. Later that same year, the BOJ cut its discount rate back to 0.50%. That single fact tells you everything you need to know. Because when Japan tightens into a fragile system, the consequences don't stay inside Japan. Japan is the backbone of global liquidity. Japan is the world's largest funding source. And Japan remains one of the largest foreign holders of U.S. debt. Today, Japan owns more than $1.25 TRILLION in U.S. Treasuries. Which means any major shift in Japanese policy will affect EVERY major asset class on the planet. THIS IS THE WARNING. Not because rates are rising. But because the last time Japan reached these levels, financial stress was already there. Markets aren't pricing that risk today. But eventually, they will. I've spent more than a decade studying macro and market cycles. I've called many market tops and bottoms, including the $126K Bitcoin ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I'll publicly post the next call here first.

🚨WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING TOMORROW!! The Bank of Japan will officially raise interest rates to 1.00%. Japan hasn't seen rates at 1.00% since the 1990s. And if you think Japan has no impact on global markets... YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG. Every time BOJ hiked rates, Bitcoin dumped by 20%+ in days. And this isn't just about Bitcoin. It's about global liquidity. It's about capital flows. And it's about a market that isn't prepared for what's coming. Let me explain. The last time Japan operated in this interest rate range, the global financial system was already showing signs of stress. In 1994, the infamous "Great Bond Massacre" wiped out roughly $1.5 TRILLION in bond market value. Then the pressure intensified. In early 1995, the Japanese yen went PARABOLIC. On April 19, 1995, USD/JPY fell to 79.75 - the lowest level ever recorded. Now here's the part almost nobody talks about. Japan tightened policy... Then was forced to reverse course. Later that same year, the BOJ cut its discount rate back to 0.50%. That single fact tells you everything you need to know. Because when Japan tightens into a fragile system, the consequences don't stay inside Japan. Japan is the backbone of global liquidity. Japan is the world's largest funding source. And Japan remains one of the largest foreign holders of U.S. debt. Today, Japan owns more than $1.25 TRILLION in U.S. Treasuries. Which means any major shift in Japanese policy will affect EVERY major asset class on the planet. THIS IS THE WARNING. Not because rates are rising. But because the last time Japan reached these levels, financial stress was already there. Markets aren't pricing that risk today. But eventually, they will. I've spent more than a decade studying macro and market cycles. I've called many market tops and bottoms, including the $126K Bitcoin ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I'll publicly post the next call here first.

0xNobler

200,965 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Japan keeps threatening to intervene in yen because its exchange value doesn't match interest rate differentials. But interest rate differentials don't really matter, so why intervene? It's all for show. Keep up appearances for the voters (who keep pressuring PMs out of office). Japan in 2025 is the very essence of interest rate differentials. US Treasury yields, by contrast to those for JGBs, are declining. Also, the Fed is cutting its policy rates, if you care about that kind of thing. In other words, whether you believe central bank policy rate differentials driven the currency value or market differentials do, in Japan’s case both have been highly favorable for the yen. Yet, it sinks anyway. This is where the finance ministry’s threats of intervention come from. The government says when judging from interest rate differentials JPY should be far stronger – again, the yen should be going in the complete other direction, strengthening not weakening back to historical lows. Since the currency isn’t doing what the government and central bank think it should be doing, you know what that means – it’s time to blame speculators! Those dirty, evil speculators must be back at it, forcing the currency to do what it otherwise wouldn’t because without speculators the yen would be rising with those interest rates differentials falling. But what if the yen’s exchange rate isn’t actually determined by interest rates at all? That would eliminate not just the speculator excuse, it would also completely undermine everything officials are doing, everything they’ve said, the entire operation. They have to blame speculators because to admit the truth would be to blow the whole Economics and central bank mythmaking up. The yen isn’t a product of central bank policy differences, it is a byproduct of the eurodollar.

Japan keeps threatening to intervene in yen because its exchange value doesn't match interest rate differentials. But interest rate differentials don't really matter, so why intervene? It's all for show. Keep up appearances for the voters (who keep pressuring PMs out of office). Japan in 2025 is the very essence of interest rate differentials. US Treasury yields, by contrast to those for JGBs, are declining. Also, the Fed is cutting its policy rates, if you care about that kind of thing. In other words, whether you believe central bank policy rate differentials driven the currency value or market differentials do, in Japan’s case both have been highly favorable for the yen. Yet, it sinks anyway. This is where the finance ministry’s threats of intervention come from. The government says when judging from interest rate differentials JPY should be far stronger – again, the yen should be going in the complete other direction, strengthening not weakening back to historical lows. Since the currency isn’t doing what the government and central bank think it should be doing, you know what that means – it’s time to blame speculators! Those dirty, evil speculators must be back at it, forcing the currency to do what it otherwise wouldn’t because without speculators the yen would be rising with those interest rates differentials falling. But what if the yen’s exchange rate isn’t actually determined by interest rates at all? That would eliminate not just the speculator excuse, it would also completely undermine everything officials are doing, everything they’ve said, the entire operation. They have to blame speculators because to admit the truth would be to blow the whole Economics and central bank mythmaking up. The yen isn’t a product of central bank policy differences, it is a byproduct of the eurodollar.

Jeffrey P. Snider

17,429 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

Trump doesn’t need to fire Powell; he can just sideline him entirely by announcing his successor tomorrow. Just like world leaders turned away from Biden, markets would turn away from Powell, and mortgage and government bond rates would start to come down immediately. Remember what happened after Trump’s victory in 2020—Joe Biden was still technically president, but no foreign leader, diplomat, or CEO cared. They all rushed to Mar-a-Lago to meet with Trump because everyone knew who the next leader was. Apply that same logic to the Fed. If Trump announces that the next Fed Chair is Scott Bessent, the bond market, which drives real-world rates far more than the Fed’s overnight rate, would begin ignoring Powell’s stubbornness and shift focus to Bessent’s commitment to bring rates back in line with economic reality. Bessent would effectively become the shadow Fed chair. He could speak across the country and signal clearly: when I take office in May 2026 (when Powell's term is up), rates are coming down by a lot. As someone who spent a decade trading interest rate derivatives, I can tell you—the bond market would have no choice but to start pricing that in. Interest rates on mortgages, credit cards, and government debt would fall almost immediately because Bessent would be seen as credible, confirmable, and committed to ending the artificially high interest rates that Powell is imposing on our economy.

Trump doesn’t need to fire Powell; he can just sideline him entirely by announcing his successor tomorrow. Just like world leaders turned away from Biden, markets would turn away from Powell, and mortgage and government bond rates would start to come down immediately. Remember what happened after Trump’s victory in 2020—Joe Biden was still technically president, but no foreign leader, diplomat, or CEO cared. They all rushed to Mar-a-Lago to meet with Trump because everyone knew who the next leader was. Apply that same logic to the Fed. If Trump announces that the next Fed Chair is Scott Bessent, the bond market, which drives real-world rates far more than the Fed’s overnight rate, would begin ignoring Powell’s stubbornness and shift focus to Bessent’s commitment to bring rates back in line with economic reality. Bessent would effectively become the shadow Fed chair. He could speak across the country and signal clearly: when I take office in May 2026 (when Powell's term is up), rates are coming down by a lot. As someone who spent a decade trading interest rate derivatives, I can tell you—the bond market would have no choice but to start pricing that in. Interest rates on mortgages, credit cards, and government debt would fall almost immediately because Bessent would be seen as credible, confirmable, and committed to ending the artificially high interest rates that Powell is imposing on our economy.

James Fishback

379,788 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

NEW: Karoline Leavitt holds up Trump’s handwritten note to Fed Chair Powell, telling him to cut rates. This one’s classic Trump and Leavitt made sure everyone in the media saw it. She held up the paper during the press briefing, pointing to the long list of countries with lower interest rates than the U.S.: “We have interest rates that are still too high, so the president sent this note to the Fed Chair today.” Reading from the chart she waved for cameras: “This is a chart of all of the interest rates of many countries throughout the world. At the top is Switzerland. They're only paying a quarter for interest rates.” Then she rattled off the list: “Cambodia, Japan, Denmark, Thailand, Botswana, Barbados, Taiwan, Bulgaria, Cuba, Sweden, Morocco, Cabo Verde, South Korea, Algeria, Canada, Albania, Libya, Malaysia, China, New Zealand, Trinidad and Tobago...” “All paying lower interest rates than the United States of America, which has one of the hottest and strongest economies in the world.” Then she read Trump’s blunt message to Jerome Powell, signed and delivered: “Jerome, you are as usual too late, you have cost the USA a fortune and continue to do so. You should lower the rate by a lot. Hundreds of billions of dollars are being lost, and there is low inflation.” “The president is right, there is historically low inflation thanks to his policies.”

NEW: Karoline Leavitt holds up Trump’s handwritten note to Fed Chair Powell, telling him to cut rates. This one’s classic Trump and Leavitt made sure everyone in the media saw it. She held up the paper during the press briefing, pointing to the long list of countries with lower interest rates than the U.S.: “We have interest rates that are still too high, so the president sent this note to the Fed Chair today.” Reading from the chart she waved for cameras: “This is a chart of all of the interest rates of many countries throughout the world. At the top is Switzerland. They're only paying a quarter for interest rates.” Then she rattled off the list: “Cambodia, Japan, Denmark, Thailand, Botswana, Barbados, Taiwan, Bulgaria, Cuba, Sweden, Morocco, Cabo Verde, South Korea, Algeria, Canada, Albania, Libya, Malaysia, China, New Zealand, Trinidad and Tobago...” “All paying lower interest rates than the United States of America, which has one of the hottest and strongest economies in the world.” Then she read Trump’s blunt message to Jerome Powell, signed and delivered: “Jerome, you are as usual too late, you have cost the USA a fortune and continue to do so. You should lower the rate by a lot. Hundreds of billions of dollars are being lost, and there is low inflation.” “The president is right, there is historically low inflation thanks to his policies.”

The Vigilant Fox 🦊

1,039,977 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

For 30 years, Japanese investors borrowed money at near-zero interest rates and poured trillions into US stocks and bonds. It was FREE money with a 5% return from US stocks and bonds. But Japan's interest rates just hit their highest level since 1999, jumping above 2%. Meanwhile, US rates dropped from 5% to 4%. Add in currency conversion costs, and suddenly that "free money" trade barely breaks even—or loses money entirely. But here’s the problem. When a trade stops being profitable, investors don't just hold and hope. They exit. And to exit the carry trade, Japanese investors must sell their US holdings to pay back their yen-denominated loans. We're not talking about millions—this is a multi-trillion dollar position built up over three decades. We saw a preview in 2024 when Japan hinted at rate hikes—US markets had a mini-meltdown. And that’s just the start of it. Japan holds $1.4 trillion in US debt. T he new prime minister needs money for tax cuts and stimulus. If she starts selling that debt to fund her agenda, US interest rates rise, borrowing costs spike, and stock prices fall. This isn't a crisis yet—but it's a ticking time bomb most investors don't even know exists. Let me explain how you can prepare for this. I've put together a complete action plan that shows you exactly when to sell, how to position your portfolio, and which assets win when governments start printing money. Watch the full breakdown here:

For 30 years, Japanese investors borrowed money at near-zero interest rates and poured trillions into US stocks and bonds. It was FREE money with a 5% return from US stocks and bonds. But Japan's interest rates just hit their highest level since 1999, jumping above 2%. Meanwhile, US rates dropped from 5% to 4%. Add in currency conversion costs, and suddenly that "free money" trade barely breaks even—or loses money entirely. But here’s the problem. When a trade stops being profitable, investors don't just hold and hope. They exit. And to exit the carry trade, Japanese investors must sell their US holdings to pay back their yen-denominated loans. We're not talking about millions—this is a multi-trillion dollar position built up over three decades. We saw a preview in 2024 when Japan hinted at rate hikes—US markets had a mini-meltdown. And that’s just the start of it. Japan holds $1.4 trillion in US debt. T he new prime minister needs money for tax cuts and stimulus. If she starts selling that debt to fund her agenda, US interest rates rise, borrowing costs spike, and stock prices fall. This isn't a crisis yet—but it's a ticking time bomb most investors don't even know exists. Let me explain how you can prepare for this. I've put together a complete action plan that shows you exactly when to sell, how to position your portfolio, and which assets win when governments start printing money. Watch the full breakdown here:

Felix Prehn 🐶

45,592 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Yesterday, Jerome Powell refused to guarantee a rate cut in December—meaning no relief on mortgages or credit cards for Americans. But he had no problem guaranteeing a rate cut in August 2024 to rig the election for Kamala Harris. President Trump has largely defeated inflation, bringing CPI to 1.9% since taking office—below the Fed’s 2% target. So why are interest rates still near 20-year highs? There’s only one reason: Powell doesn’t want to help President Trump. He doesn’t want to help the Golden Age. Powell's stubborn recalcitrance is hurting American families.

Yesterday, Jerome Powell refused to guarantee a rate cut in December—meaning no relief on mortgages or credit cards for Americans. But he had no problem guaranteeing a rate cut in August 2024 to rig the election for Kamala Harris. President Trump has largely defeated inflation, bringing CPI to 1.9% since taking office—below the Fed’s 2% target. So why are interest rates still near 20-year highs? There’s only one reason: Powell doesn’t want to help President Trump. He doesn’t want to help the Golden Age. Powell's stubborn recalcitrance is hurting American families.

James Fishback

179,015 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

Jerome Powell needs to lower interest rates by one full percentage point at the Fed meeting next month. Since March, he has refused to lower rates because of “tariff inflation” that has not shown up. Because he did not cut at those meetings, he is behind and needs to catch up. Doing so would deliver relief for working Americans and bring mortgage, credit card, and business loan rates down from near 20-year highs. President Trump deserves a Fed chair focused on facts and fundamentals—not politics.

Jerome Powell needs to lower interest rates by one full percentage point at the Fed meeting next month. Since March, he has refused to lower rates because of “tariff inflation” that has not shown up. Because he did not cut at those meetings, he is behind and needs to catch up. Doing so would deliver relief for working Americans and bring mortgage, credit card, and business loan rates down from near 20-year highs. President Trump deserves a Fed chair focused on facts and fundamentals—not politics.

James Fishback

23,191 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

‼️EVERYONE IS WATCHING THE BOATS. ALMOST NOBODY IS WATCHING THE MONEY MOVING AND THE POTENTIAL CRISIS AHEAD‼️ While everyone is watching the boats arriving in Spain… Global investors may be quietly moving billions. Here’s why it matters: ➡️ The U.S. has reportedly joined Japan in supporting the yen for the first time in almost 30 years. ➡️ Japan is raising interest rates. ➡️ The yen carry trade is unwinding. ➡️ Investors sell assets and move money. ➡️ The question is: Where does that money go? If global capital starts favouring America and Japan over Europe: • Europe attracts less investment. • Growth slows. • Jobs come under pressure. • The euro weakens. • Imports become more expensive. • Inflation rises. • Interest rates stay higher. • Mortgages stay expensive. • Governments spend more on debt and less on public services. Now add Red Sea disruption and the risk of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz… That’s more inflationary pressure. One intervention won’t change the world. But if this is the start of a bigger shift in global capital… By the time it reaches your mortgage, your pension and your weekly shop….. the money has already moved.

‼️EVERYONE IS WATCHING THE BOATS. ALMOST NOBODY IS WATCHING THE MONEY MOVING AND THE POTENTIAL CRISIS AHEAD‼️ While everyone is watching the boats arriving in Spain… Global investors may be quietly moving billions. Here’s why it matters: ➡️ The U.S. has reportedly joined Japan in supporting the yen for the first time in almost 30 years. ➡️ Japan is raising interest rates. ➡️ The yen carry trade is unwinding. ➡️ Investors sell assets and move money. ➡️ The question is: Where does that money go? If global capital starts favouring America and Japan over Europe: • Europe attracts less investment. • Growth slows. • Jobs come under pressure. • The euro weakens. • Imports become more expensive. • Inflation rises. • Interest rates stay higher. • Mortgages stay expensive. • Governments spend more on debt and less on public services. Now add Red Sea disruption and the risk of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz… That’s more inflationary pressure. One intervention won’t change the world. But if this is the start of a bigger shift in global capital… By the time it reaches your mortgage, your pension and your weekly shop….. the money has already moved.

Melissa Ciummei

26,450 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen

🇺🇸 INTERVIEW: “AMERICA IS FUNDING ITS DEBT BY EXPROPRIATING THE WORLD’S WEALTH” Luke Gromen, Macroeconomic Strategist “Over the last five to ten years, the only way the U.S. and the West can afford to sustain their debt levels is by keeping real interest rates negative. That means the rate of inflation and nominal growth have to stay higher than the interest rate on government bonds. If you’re a creditor holding U.S. debt, that effectively means your country’s wealth is being slowly expropriated through inflation. For nations like China and Russia, that’s unacceptable. Their answer has been to buy gold to protect purchasing power and hedge against the weaponization of the dollar.”

🇺🇸 INTERVIEW: “AMERICA IS FUNDING ITS DEBT BY EXPROPRIATING THE WORLD’S WEALTH” Luke Gromen, Macroeconomic Strategist “Over the last five to ten years, the only way the U.S. and the West can afford to sustain their debt levels is by keeping real interest rates negative. That means the rate of inflation and nominal growth have to stay higher than the interest rate on government bonds. If you’re a creditor holding U.S. debt, that effectively means your country’s wealth is being slowly expropriated through inflation. For nations like China and Russia, that’s unacceptable. Their answer has been to buy gold to protect purchasing power and hedge against the weaponization of the dollar.”

Mario Nawfal

70,256 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

What happens when a country mismanages its debt? In 1990, Japanese policymakers decided to deal with its debt obligations by printing a lot of money to buy bonds. They further devalued the currency by giving bondholders significantly lower interest rates than in the US. As a result, Japanese bonds lost 45% relative to US bonds and 60% relative to gold over the next few years. That had a real impact on the average Japanese worker, who lost a significant amount of buying power — and those impacts are still felt today. My new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, breaks it all down for you. #raydalio #principles #politics #economics

What happens when a country mismanages its debt? In 1990, Japanese policymakers decided to deal with its debt obligations by printing a lot of money to buy bonds. They further devalued the currency by giving bondholders significantly lower interest rates than in the US. As a result, Japanese bonds lost 45% relative to US bonds and 60% relative to gold over the next few years. That had a real impact on the average Japanese worker, who lost a significant amount of buying power — and those impacts are still felt today. My new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, breaks it all down for you. #raydalio #principles #politics #economics

Ray Dalio

139,549 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

In the final stretch of the interview, Armstrong delivered a grave warning: his computer model—known for accurately predicting every major war cycle in recent decades—is flashing red. An “international war panic cycle” is set to erupt in 2026. “I’ve tried my best to defeat my own computer, but I failed. There’s no stopping this,” he wrote in his latest report. He pointed to collapsing bond markets and rising long-term interest rates—ominous trends he says mirror past wartime patterns. During WWII, the Fed had to buy bonds to keep rates low. But by the Korean War, they refused—sparking a high-profile showdown with the White House. “The Federal Reserve said, no, we’re not following the White House,” Armstrong said. War, he explained, sends interest rates soaring—and wartime bonds often become worthless. “Who wins? You can still buy Confederate bonds on eBay, if you like,” he joked. “They’re worthless!” Today, the Fed is powerless. “Our computer shows long-term interest rates are going up,” Armstrong said. “The Fed can only control short-term rates.” “This is all reflecting war,” he added. He expects global tensions to rise rapidly—starting late July and intensifying through August, September, and October. As for NATO? “They want war. NATO has no purpose without war,” he said. “They can only remain relevant by saying, ‘Oh, Putin wants to invade Europe.’” But Armstrong pushed back: “If Putin doesn’t want to invade Europe, then why do we need you?” He said the West has deliberately crossed every red line Putin set—hoping to bait him into striking NATO first so they can justify all-out war. In a chilling final warning, Armstrong said China has already chosen a side. “They will back Russia against Europe,” he explained. “Why? Because if they don’t, you take out Russia—and they’re coming for you.”

The Vigilant Fox 🦊

59,863 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Peter Schiff: It's now IMPOSSIBLE for the U.S to solve its debt crisis!! America is sitting on nearly $40 trillion in debt, interest payments are exploding, deficits keep getting bigger, and nobody in Washington is even pretending to have a serious plan anymore. And Schiff's explanation for why is brutal: The solution is more catastrophic than the crisis. Cut spending enough to stop the debt spiral, and you crash the economy. Raise taxes enough to stabilize the balance sheet, and you trigger a political revolt. Allow interest rates to rise to where they should be, and the entire system starts falling apart. So instead, America keeps choosing inflation, more debt, and more delay. What shocked me was when I asked what happens if interest rates eventually reflect the actual risk of lending money to a government drowning in debt: his answer was that the whole thing implodes. While everyone is distracted by wars, tariffs, AI, crypto, elections, and the latest political drama, he thinks the biggest story in the world is quietly ticking away in the background. America's creditors are losing faith, central banks are buying gold, the debt keeps compounding, and one day the people financing this system will decide they've had enough. Peter Schiff

Peter Schiff: It's now IMPOSSIBLE for the U.S to solve its debt crisis!! America is sitting on nearly $40 trillion in debt, interest payments are exploding, deficits keep getting bigger, and nobody in Washington is even pretending to have a serious plan anymore. And Schiff's explanation for why is brutal: The solution is more catastrophic than the crisis. Cut spending enough to stop the debt spiral, and you crash the economy. Raise taxes enough to stabilize the balance sheet, and you trigger a political revolt. Allow interest rates to rise to where they should be, and the entire system starts falling apart. So instead, America keeps choosing inflation, more debt, and more delay. What shocked me was when I asked what happens if interest rates eventually reflect the actual risk of lending money to a government drowning in debt: his answer was that the whole thing implodes. While everyone is distracted by wars, tariffs, AI, crypto, elections, and the latest political drama, he thinks the biggest story in the world is quietly ticking away in the background. America's creditors are losing faith, central banks are buying gold, the debt keeps compounding, and one day the people financing this system will decide they've had enough. Peter Schiff

Mario Nawfal

313,473 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING!! Bank of Japan will hike interest rates to 1.00% next week. Japan hasn’t been at 1.00% since the 1990s. And if you think Japan doesn’t affect global markets... YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG. Every time BOJ raised rates, Bitcoin dumped by 20%+ in days. But it’s not just about BTC. Let me break this down for you: The last time Japan was in this range, the world was already in risis. In 1994, bonds got crushed in the “Great Bond Massacre”. About $1.5 TRILLION in bond market value was wiped out back then. Then in early 1995, the pressure kept building. And the yen went REALLY BAD. On April 19, 1995, USD/JPY hit around 79.75, a record low for the dollar. Now here’s the part most people forget. Japan pushed rates higher, then had to CUT again later that same year. BOJ brought the discount rate down to 0.50% in September 1995. That one detail explains everything. Because when Japan tightens into a fragile system, it doesn’t stay “local”. Japan is the CHEAP MONEY hub. And Japan is a MASSIVE global holder. Japan holds over $1.25 TRILLION of U.S. Treasuries. So if Japan decided to sell, the entire world feels it right away. THIS IS A WARNING. Not because “rates will go up”. Because the last time we were here, the system was already under stress and it forced reactions fast. Markets are not pricing it right now. But they will. I’ve studied markets for over a decade and called nearly every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the next warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING!! Bank of Japan will hike interest rates to 1.00% next week. Japan hasn’t been at 1.00% since the 1990s. And if you think Japan doesn’t affect global markets... YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG. Every time BOJ raised rates, Bitcoin dumped by 20%+ in days. But it’s not just about BTC. Let me break this down for you: The last time Japan was in this range, the world was already in risis. In 1994, bonds got crushed in the “Great Bond Massacre”. About $1.5 TRILLION in bond market value was wiped out back then. Then in early 1995, the pressure kept building. And the yen went REALLY BAD. On April 19, 1995, USD/JPY hit around 79.75, a record low for the dollar. Now here’s the part most people forget. Japan pushed rates higher, then had to CUT again later that same year. BOJ brought the discount rate down to 0.50% in September 1995. That one detail explains everything. Because when Japan tightens into a fragile system, it doesn’t stay “local”. Japan is the CHEAP MONEY hub. And Japan is a MASSIVE global holder. Japan holds over $1.25 TRILLION of U.S. Treasuries. So if Japan decided to sell, the entire world feels it right away. THIS IS A WARNING. Not because “rates will go up”. Because the last time we were here, the system was already under stress and it forced reactions fast. Markets are not pricing it right now. But they will. I’ve studied markets for over a decade and called nearly every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the next warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

0xNobler

197,590 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🚨 OMG: Trump just mocked the CRAP out of Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates...🤣 "He's doing a disservice. And then he goes up and talks about, 'I'd like to see costs come down.' You know, he gets up and he does his little thing for five minutes, and he goes out and he goes back to the beach." "He goes, 'I'd like to see costs come down.' Well, he could lower the interest costs by 900 BILLION dollars a year. All he has to do is lower rates." "And everybody's saying, I was watching some of the business shows today, and they're saying, 'you know, Trump's right. He should really be cutting.' The country's doing well. We have no inflation." "Now, DESPITE him, we're doing great. But if we got the rates down, we would be a rocket ship."

🚨 OMG: Trump just mocked the CRAP out of Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates...🤣 "He's doing a disservice. And then he goes up and talks about, 'I'd like to see costs come down.' You know, he gets up and he does his little thing for five minutes, and he goes out and he goes back to the beach." "He goes, 'I'd like to see costs come down.' Well, he could lower the interest costs by 900 BILLION dollars a year. All he has to do is lower rates." "And everybody's saying, I was watching some of the business shows today, and they're saying, 'you know, Trump's right. He should really be cutting.' The country's doing well. We have no inflation." "Now, DESPITE him, we're doing great. But if we got the rates down, we would be a rocket ship."

Eric Daugherty

565,035 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

The feedback on the Jeffrey Gundlach episode has been incredible, so I'm posting the pod here on X too. 🙏 In his debut on The Julia La Roche Show, Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, breaks down why private credit is an unmitigated disaster, why the next recession will send rates up and the dollar down, and why most American investors are completely unprepared for what's coming. Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction & welcome Jeffrey Gundlach 1:33 Big picture macro: secular shift from falling to rising interest rates 16:00 The case for 100% non-US stocks 17:30 Gundlach's current asset allocation 22:00 Private credit and why it's a “total unmitigated disaster" 38:00 The Fed follows the 2-year Treasury - next move a rate hike? 42:30 Recession odds 47:00 Capital preservation mode: lowest risk positioning in DoubleLine's 17-year history 50:00 The gold call 53:00 The most dangerous force in investing 56:00 California headed for bankruptcy? 1:01:00 Non-consensus prediction: three parties on the ballot in the next presidential election 1:02:00 The Fourth Turning

The feedback on the Jeffrey Gundlach episode has been incredible, so I'm posting the pod here on X too. 🙏 In his debut on The Julia La Roche Show, Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, breaks down why private credit is an unmitigated disaster, why the next recession will send rates up and the dollar down, and why most American investors are completely unprepared for what's coming. Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction & welcome Jeffrey Gundlach 1:33 Big picture macro: secular shift from falling to rising interest rates 16:00 The case for 100% non-US stocks 17:30 Gundlach's current asset allocation 22:00 Private credit and why it's a “total unmitigated disaster" 38:00 The Fed follows the 2-year Treasury - next move a rate hike? 42:30 Recession odds 47:00 Capital preservation mode: lowest risk positioning in DoubleLine's 17-year history 50:00 The gold call 53:00 The most dangerous force in investing 56:00 California headed for bankruptcy? 1:01:00 Non-consensus prediction: three parties on the ballot in the next presidential election 1:02:00 The Fourth Turning

Julia La Roche

284,018 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

‘Truflation': Trump’s Actual Inflation Rate | E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. President Trump’s “clamoring for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates” may finally pay off later this year when Kevin Warsh takes over as the new Fed chair. Trump “shouldn’t have to wait that long,” however, because his appeal to the Fed has been “on the grounds that inflation is much lower than what’s being officially reported,” explains E.J. Antoni, Ph.D., Ph.D., Heritage Foundation's chief economist. “ It turns out Trump is spot on with today's real inflation rate being only one-third the official metrics. In fact, these numbers come from the real-time price aggregator Truflation, which monitors millions of prices every single day. That is orders of magnitude more than the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, which only observes a few thousand prices just three times per month.” (00:00) Trump's Push for Lower Interest Rates (01:49) Understanding Real Inflation Rates (03:40) Comparing Truflation and CPI (06:26) Housing Costs and Inflation Metrics (09:02) The Impact of Lower Interest Rates (09:38) Conclusion and Next Steps 👉For more videos like this, subscribe to The Daily Signal’s YouTube channel and enable notifications to be alerted the second a new video drops:

‘Truflation': Trump’s Actual Inflation Rate | E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. President Trump’s “clamoring for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates” may finally pay off later this year when Kevin Warsh takes over as the new Fed chair. Trump “shouldn’t have to wait that long,” however, because his appeal to the Fed has been “on the grounds that inflation is much lower than what’s being officially reported,” explains E.J. Antoni, Ph.D., Ph.D., Heritage Foundation's chief economist. “ It turns out Trump is spot on with today's real inflation rate being only one-third the official metrics. In fact, these numbers come from the real-time price aggregator Truflation, which monitors millions of prices every single day. That is orders of magnitude more than the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, which only observes a few thousand prices just three times per month.” (00:00) Trump's Push for Lower Interest Rates (01:49) Understanding Real Inflation Rates (03:40) Comparing Truflation and CPI (06:26) Housing Costs and Inflation Metrics (09:02) The Impact of Lower Interest Rates (09:38) Conclusion and Next Steps 👉For more videos like this, subscribe to The Daily Signal’s YouTube channel and enable notifications to be alerted the second a new video drops:

The Daily Signal

31,658 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten