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"Zero interest rates aren't normal. That’s for someone who's dying." 🚨 Patrick Boyle 💎 breaks down why the push for "left-wing style economics", like doubling the national debt to mimic Japan, is an absolute recipe for disaster. The reality? Japan has faced three lost decades, and those "cheap" interest... show more

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The Bank of Japan Just Sent a Warning to the Entire Financial World by Raising Its Rate to a 31 Year High. Does this signal the end of the world’s cheapest money? Japan just raised interest rates to 1%, the highest level since 1995. That may sound small, but for Japan, it is a major macro turning point. After decades of zero rates, deflation, and ultra-cheap money, the Bank of Japan is now trying to normalize policy while facing a weak yen, rising imported inflation, higher energy costs, and one of the largest government debt burdens in the world. In this video, we discuss why Japan’s 1% rate hike matters far beyond Japan, from the yen carry trade and global liquidity to Japanese bonds, equities, inflation, and everyday life.

The Bank of Japan Just Sent a Warning to the Entire Financial World by Raising Its Rate to a 31 Year High. Does this signal the end of the world’s cheapest money? Japan just raised interest rates to 1%, the highest level since 1995. That may sound small, but for Japan, it is a major macro turning point. After decades of zero rates, deflation, and ultra-cheap money, the Bank of Japan is now trying to normalize policy while facing a weak yen, rising imported inflation, higher energy costs, and one of the largest government debt burdens in the world. In this video, we discuss why Japan’s 1% rate hike matters far beyond Japan, from the yen carry trade and global liquidity to Japanese bonds, equities, inflation, and everyday life.

YCC Macro

50,861 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

WARREN BUFFETT ON WHY INTEREST RATES ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT NUMBER IN INVESTING The 10-year Treasury hit 5% today for only the second time since 2007. When Buffett said this in 2017, it was at 2.15%, and he explained why that made stocks look cheap. "If you look at the 10-year government at 2.15, that means you're paying 45 times earnings when you buy that bond. And the earnings aren't going to go up." "Interest rates are to stock prices what gravity is to matter. If interest rates were nothing and they're going to be nothing forever, you'd be buying stuff that would yield you one percent or two percent." "If interest rates on the short rate are 21%, like they were in 1982 under Volcker, you can look at a stock at six times earnings and say, well, that really isn't that attractive. That's what drives valuations." At 5%, the 10-year is 20 times earnings. The gravity just got a lot stronger.

WARREN BUFFETT ON WHY INTEREST RATES ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT NUMBER IN INVESTING The 10-year Treasury hit 5% today for only the second time since 2007. When Buffett said this in 2017, it was at 2.15%, and he explained why that made stocks look cheap. "If you look at the 10-year government at 2.15, that means you're paying 45 times earnings when you buy that bond. And the earnings aren't going to go up." "Interest rates are to stock prices what gravity is to matter. If interest rates were nothing and they're going to be nothing forever, you'd be buying stuff that would yield you one percent or two percent." "If interest rates on the short rate are 21%, like they were in 1982 under Volcker, you can look at a stock at six times earnings and say, well, that really isn't that attractive. That's what drives valuations." At 5%, the 10-year is 20 times earnings. The gravity just got a lot stronger.

WOLF

183,897 Aufrufe • vor 20 Tagen

🚨 JAPAN JUST DID THE IMPOSSIBLE The Bank of Japan just raised rates to 1.25%. The highest since 1995. And the yen FELL. Now ask yourself one question: WHY CAN’T JAPAN JUST KEEP HIKING UNTIL THE YEN RECOVERS? For years, the BOJ kept rates near zero or NEGATIVE to fight deflation. Japan built its entire financial system around almost FREE MONEY. Japanese investors could borrow yen cheaply and buy higher-yielding assets overseas. That became the famous YEN CARRY TRADE. But there was a cost: 1) Negative rates crushed bank margins. 2) Massive BOJ bond buying distorted the government bond market. And years of cheap money left Japan extremely sensitive to higher rates. And this is where the trap appears. Japan’s government debt pile is enormous. As rates rise, old cheap debt eventually gets refinanced at higher rates. Japan’s government interest bill has already gone from roughly: ¥8.5T in 2023 → ¥13T in 2026 And that is BEFORE Japan gets anywhere close to U.S. rates. Today: - Japan: 1.25% - U.S.: 3.75%-4.00% The carry trade is still alive. Dollars still pay far more than yen. To really close that gap, Japan would have to tighten MUCH harder. But aggressive hikes would hit: → Government borrowing costs → Corporate borrowing → Mortgages → Bond prices → Economic growth That is why Japan cannot simply keep smashing rates higher. And that is why today’s hike wasn’t enough to save the yen. The market understood something retail didn’t: 1.25% IS STILL CHEAP MONEY. The rate gap is still huge. And the BOJ gave no signal that it is prepared to close that gap aggressively. So Japan faces an ugly choice: Raise rates fast and put enormous pressure on the system built around cheap money. Or normalize slowly and tolerate a weaker yen for longer. Right now, the market is betting on the second option. And a weak yen has its own cost. Japan imports huge amounts of energy and raw materials. A weaker currency makes those imports more expensive and pushes inflation higher. But it also helps exporters and increases the yen value of overseas profits. Japan doesn’t necessarily WANT a weak yen. It is tolerating one because aggressively defending it could be even more painful. Remember, I’ve been trading markets for over 15 years. The biggest opportunities come when central banks get trapped between two bad choices. That’s exactly what I’m watching now. When I see where the money moves next, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

🚨 JAPAN JUST DID THE IMPOSSIBLE The Bank of Japan just raised rates to 1.25%. The highest since 1995. And the yen FELL. Now ask yourself one question: WHY CAN’T JAPAN JUST KEEP HIKING UNTIL THE YEN RECOVERS? For years, the BOJ kept rates near zero or NEGATIVE to fight deflation. Japan built its entire financial system around almost FREE MONEY. Japanese investors could borrow yen cheaply and buy higher-yielding assets overseas. That became the famous YEN CARRY TRADE. But there was a cost: 1) Negative rates crushed bank margins. 2) Massive BOJ bond buying distorted the government bond market. And years of cheap money left Japan extremely sensitive to higher rates. And this is where the trap appears. Japan’s government debt pile is enormous. As rates rise, old cheap debt eventually gets refinanced at higher rates. Japan’s government interest bill has already gone from roughly: ¥8.5T in 2023 → ¥13T in 2026 And that is BEFORE Japan gets anywhere close to U.S. rates. Today: - Japan: 1.25% - U.S.: 3.75%-4.00% The carry trade is still alive. Dollars still pay far more than yen. To really close that gap, Japan would have to tighten MUCH harder. But aggressive hikes would hit: → Government borrowing costs → Corporate borrowing → Mortgages → Bond prices → Economic growth That is why Japan cannot simply keep smashing rates higher. And that is why today’s hike wasn’t enough to save the yen. The market understood something retail didn’t: 1.25% IS STILL CHEAP MONEY. The rate gap is still huge. And the BOJ gave no signal that it is prepared to close that gap aggressively. So Japan faces an ugly choice: Raise rates fast and put enormous pressure on the system built around cheap money. Or normalize slowly and tolerate a weaker yen for longer. Right now, the market is betting on the second option. And a weak yen has its own cost. Japan imports huge amounts of energy and raw materials. A weaker currency makes those imports more expensive and pushes inflation higher. But it also helps exporters and increases the yen value of overseas profits. Japan doesn’t necessarily WANT a weak yen. It is tolerating one because aggressively defending it could be even more painful. Remember, I’ve been trading markets for over 15 years. The biggest opportunities come when central banks get trapped between two bad choices. That’s exactly what I’m watching now. When I see where the money moves next, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

136,567 Aufrufe • vor 16 Tagen

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump is ERUPTING right now on the Federal Reserve for making us pay higher interest rates than other countries who only thrive BECAUSE OF US "EVERY POINT of interest is $600 BILLION DOLLARS!" 🤯 "Two points means we make a fortune." "We keep driving it up. It's a very unfair system." "They LIVE off the United States. So WHY are we paying higher interest rates than them!?" "You know, in the old days, we used to pay the lowest interest rate, no matter how we were doing, because we sort of generate for the whole world!" "And I want to see it where interest rate, and I have to tell you, we have a wonderful chairman. I think he's doing a great job. The problem is he has a board, and it's a political board." Cut the rates ASAP!

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump is ERUPTING right now on the Federal Reserve for making us pay higher interest rates than other countries who only thrive BECAUSE OF US "EVERY POINT of interest is $600 BILLION DOLLARS!" 🤯 "Two points means we make a fortune." "We keep driving it up. It's a very unfair system." "They LIVE off the United States. So WHY are we paying higher interest rates than them!?" "You know, in the old days, we used to pay the lowest interest rate, no matter how we were doing, because we sort of generate for the whole world!" "And I want to see it where interest rate, and I have to tell you, we have a wonderful chairman. I think he's doing a great job. The problem is he has a board, and it's a political board." Cut the rates ASAP!

War Correspondent

24,758 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump is ERUPTING right now on the Federal Reserve for making us pay higher interest rates than other countries who only thrive BECAUSE OF US "EVERY POINT of interest is $600 BILLION DOLLARS!" 🤯 "Two points means we make a fortune." "We keep driving it up. It's a very unfair system." "They LIVE off the United States. So WHY are we paying higher interest rates than them!?" "You know, in the old days, we used to pay the lowest interest rate, no matter how we were doing, because we sort of generate for the whole world!" "And I want to see it where interest rate, and I have to tell you, we have a wonderful chairman. I think he's doing a great job. The problem is he has a board, and it's a political board." Cut the rates ASAP!

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump is ERUPTING right now on the Federal Reserve for making us pay higher interest rates than other countries who only thrive BECAUSE OF US "EVERY POINT of interest is $600 BILLION DOLLARS!" 🤯 "Two points means we make a fortune." "We keep driving it up. It's a very unfair system." "They LIVE off the United States. So WHY are we paying higher interest rates than them!?" "You know, in the old days, we used to pay the lowest interest rate, no matter how we were doing, because we sort of generate for the whole world!" "And I want to see it where interest rate, and I have to tell you, we have a wonderful chairman. I think he's doing a great job. The problem is he has a board, and it's a political board." Cut the rates ASAP!

Eric Daugherty

435,732 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

$Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds at $1.2 trillion. For years, Japanese pension funds, insurance companies, and banks borrowed at 0% interest rates at home and invested that money in US Treasury bonds yielding 4-5%. This "carry trade" was essentially free money—borrow for nothing and earn solid returns with minimal risk. They turned this into a $20 trillion global trade (with 1.2 trillion being US Treasury bonds). But the game is changing. In November 2025, Japan announced a $130 billion stimulus package—money the government planned to spend to boost the economy. Normally, this would be good news. Instead, Japan's interest rates spiked to 1.8%, the highest in 20 years. Why? The bond market was sending a clear message: with Japan's debt already at 234% of GDP, investors have lost confidence in its ability to keep borrowing. This reaction ended the zero-rate environment that made the carry trade work. Now Japanese rates are at 1.8% while US rates are around 4.2%. The gap is shrinking, which means the carry trade isn't as profitable anymore. Japanese institutions might start selling their US Treasury bonds and bringing that money back home where rates are now competitive. If Japanese institutions start bringing that money home—even a fraction of it—the impact on US markets could be massive. When lots of people sell bonds, bond prices drop. When bond prices drop, interest rates go up. Higher US interest rates mean higher costs for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards for regular Americans. It also means the US government has to pay more to borrow money—and they're already paying $1 trillion per year just on interest for existing debt. The world's largest creditor-debtor relationship is entering uncharted territory. PS - I've recorded a 22-minute video covering this in more detail, as well as which sectors (and stocks) will benefit/suffer when this unfolds. If you want access to it, comment "JAPAN" and I'll DM it to you.$

Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds at $1.2 trillion. For years, Japanese pension funds, insurance companies, and banks borrowed at 0% interest rates at home and invested that money in US Treasury bonds yielding 4-5%. This "carry trade" was essentially free money—borrow for nothing and earn solid returns with minimal risk. They turned this into a $20 trillion global trade (with 1.2 trillion being US Treasury bonds). But the game is changing. In November 2025, Japan announced a $130 billion stimulus package—money the government planned to spend to boost the economy. Normally, this would be good news. Instead, Japan's interest rates spiked to 1.8%, the highest in 20 years. Why? The bond market was sending a clear message: with Japan's debt already at 234% of GDP, investors have lost confidence in its ability to keep borrowing. This reaction ended the zero-rate environment that made the carry trade work. Now Japanese rates are at 1.8% while US rates are around 4.2%. The gap is shrinking, which means the carry trade isn't as profitable anymore. Japanese institutions might start selling their US Treasury bonds and bringing that money back home where rates are now competitive. If Japanese institutions start bringing that money home—even a fraction of it—the impact on US markets could be massive. When lots of people sell bonds, bond prices drop. When bond prices drop, interest rates go up. Higher US interest rates mean higher costs for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards for regular Americans. It also means the US government has to pay more to borrow money—and they're already paying $1 trillion per year just on interest for existing debt. The world's largest creditor-debtor relationship is entering uncharted territory. PS - I've recorded a 22-minute video covering this in more detail, as well as which sectors (and stocks) will benefit/suffer when this unfolds. If you want access to it, comment "JAPAN" and I'll DM it to you.

Felix Prehn 🐶

225,458 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

🚨 President Trump is FED UP with with American taxpayers SUBSIDIZING a LAUNDRY LIST of countries while we pay RIDICULOUS interest rates, courtesy of the Fed 60+ countries live off American business while paying a FRACTION of our interest rates. Switzerland sits at half a percent. We pay 3.5%+ "In the old days, we used to pay the LOWEST interest rate no matter how we were doing, because we sort of generate for the whole world." "I have the absolute right to cut off all business with a country like Switzerland, like any. So why are they prime if I can cut off the business and they are no longer functional!?" "And yet they're considered to be like an elite country." "And I don't want to single them out because there's 60 countries like that. They LIVE off the United States. So why are we paying higher interest rates than them?!"

🚨 President Trump is FED UP with with American taxpayers SUBSIDIZING a LAUNDRY LIST of countries while we pay RIDICULOUS interest rates, courtesy of the Fed 60+ countries live off American business while paying a FRACTION of our interest rates. Switzerland sits at half a percent. We pay 3.5%+ "In the old days, we used to pay the LOWEST interest rate no matter how we were doing, because we sort of generate for the whole world." "I have the absolute right to cut off all business with a country like Switzerland, like any. So why are they prime if I can cut off the business and they are no longer functional!?" "And yet they're considered to be like an elite country." "And I don't want to single them out because there's 60 countries like that. They LIVE off the United States. So why are we paying higher interest rates than them?!"

Nick Sortor

201,072 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING TOMORROW!! The Bank of Japan will officially raise interest rates to 1.00%. Japan hasn't seen rates at 1.00% since the 1990s. And if you think Japan has no impact on global markets... YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG. Every time BOJ hiked rates, Bitcoin dumped by 20%+ in days. And this isn't just about Bitcoin. It's about global liquidity. It's about capital flows. And it's about a market that isn't prepared for what's coming. Let me explain. The last time Japan operated in this interest rate range, the global financial system was already showing signs of stress. In 1994, the infamous "Great Bond Massacre" wiped out roughly $1.5 TRILLION in bond market value. Then the pressure intensified. In early 1995, the Japanese yen went PARABOLIC. On April 19, 1995, USD/JPY fell to 79.75 - the lowest level ever recorded. Now here's the part almost nobody talks about. Japan tightened policy... Then was forced to reverse course. Later that same year, the BOJ cut its discount rate back to 0.50%. That single fact tells you everything you need to know. Because when Japan tightens into a fragile system, the consequences don't stay inside Japan. Japan is the backbone of global liquidity. Japan is the world's largest funding source. And Japan remains one of the largest foreign holders of U.S. debt. Today, Japan owns more than $1.25 TRILLION in U.S. Treasuries. Which means any major shift in Japanese policy will affect EVERY major asset class on the planet. THIS IS THE WARNING. Not because rates are rising. But because the last time Japan reached these levels, financial stress was already there. Markets aren't pricing that risk today. But eventually, they will. I've spent more than a decade studying macro and market cycles. I've called many market tops and bottoms, including the $126K Bitcoin ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I'll publicly post the next call here first.

🚨WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING TOMORROW!! The Bank of Japan will officially raise interest rates to 1.00%. Japan hasn't seen rates at 1.00% since the 1990s. And if you think Japan has no impact on global markets... YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG. Every time BOJ hiked rates, Bitcoin dumped by 20%+ in days. And this isn't just about Bitcoin. It's about global liquidity. It's about capital flows. And it's about a market that isn't prepared for what's coming. Let me explain. The last time Japan operated in this interest rate range, the global financial system was already showing signs of stress. In 1994, the infamous "Great Bond Massacre" wiped out roughly $1.5 TRILLION in bond market value. Then the pressure intensified. In early 1995, the Japanese yen went PARABOLIC. On April 19, 1995, USD/JPY fell to 79.75 - the lowest level ever recorded. Now here's the part almost nobody talks about. Japan tightened policy... Then was forced to reverse course. Later that same year, the BOJ cut its discount rate back to 0.50%. That single fact tells you everything you need to know. Because when Japan tightens into a fragile system, the consequences don't stay inside Japan. Japan is the backbone of global liquidity. Japan is the world's largest funding source. And Japan remains one of the largest foreign holders of U.S. debt. Today, Japan owns more than $1.25 TRILLION in U.S. Treasuries. Which means any major shift in Japanese policy will affect EVERY major asset class on the planet. THIS IS THE WARNING. Not because rates are rising. But because the last time Japan reached these levels, financial stress was already there. Markets aren't pricing that risk today. But eventually, they will. I've spent more than a decade studying macro and market cycles. I've called many market tops and bottoms, including the $126K Bitcoin ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I'll publicly post the next call here first.

0xNobler

201,249 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🚨 HOLY CRAP! President Trump just announced he will STOP trading with ANY country with which the US has a deficit if the Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates, after jobs triple expecctations "LOWER THE RATE OR I’LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT, which the U.S. Supreme Court, in its ridiculous and very costly Tariff decision, strongly acknowledged “the President” has an absolute right to do. ITS BETTER THAN TARIFFS!" "The Fed Board, with its great new leader, must get smart - BE PATRIOTS for a change. High interest rates put the U.S.A. at a very unfair disadvantage, and I won’t allow that to happen!" "Lower the interest rates because the U.S.A. is a much stronger credit than it was just a short time ago! A STRONG COUNTRY MEANS A LOWER INTEREST RATE - IT’S A BETTER CREDIT…Very simple!" "We should have the LOWEST RATE of any country in the World, like “the old days.” Without the United States agreeing to allow them their big surpluses, and we could stop that immediately, they would no longer be considered financially ELITE!" HUGE.

🚨 HOLY CRAP! President Trump just announced he will STOP trading with ANY country with which the US has a deficit if the Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates, after jobs triple expecctations "LOWER THE RATE OR I’LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT, which the U.S. Supreme Court, in its ridiculous and very costly Tariff decision, strongly acknowledged “the President” has an absolute right to do. ITS BETTER THAN TARIFFS!" "The Fed Board, with its great new leader, must get smart - BE PATRIOTS for a change. High interest rates put the U.S.A. at a very unfair disadvantage, and I won’t allow that to happen!" "Lower the interest rates because the U.S.A. is a much stronger credit than it was just a short time ago! A STRONG COUNTRY MEANS A LOWER INTEREST RATE - IT’S A BETTER CREDIT…Very simple!" "We should have the LOWEST RATE of any country in the World, like “the old days.” Without the United States agreeing to allow them their big surpluses, and we could stop that immediately, they would no longer be considered financially ELITE!" HUGE.

Eric Daugherty

265,510 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD JUST HAPPENED!! Japan just hit the panic button. The BOJ has officially hiked interest rates to 1.25%. Japan hasn't seen rates this high since the 1990s. And if you think this has no impact on global markets... YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG. Every time the BOJ raised rates, Bitcoin crashed 20%+ within days. But this goes far beyond Bitcoin and risk assets. This is about global liquidity. This is about capital moving across borders. And this is about a market that is completely unprepared for what comes next. Let me explain. The last time Japan operated around these interest rate levels, the global financial system was already under serious pressure. In 1994, the infamous "Great Bond Massacre" destroyed roughly $1.5 TRILLION in bond market value. Then the pressure accelerated. In early 1995, the Japanese yen went PARABOLIC. On April 19, 1995, USD/JPY collapsed to 79.75 - the lowest level ever recorded. Now here's what almost nobody is talking about. Japan tightened monetary policy... And then it was forced to reverse course. Later that same year, the BOJ cut its discount rate back to 0.50%. That one fact tells you EVERYTHING. Because when Japan tightens into a fragile financial system, the consequences don't remain inside Japan. Japan is a critical pillar of global liquidity. Japan is one of the world's largest sources of funding. And Japan remains one of the largest foreign holders of U.S. debt. Today, Japan holds more than $1.15 TRILLION in U.S. Treasuries. That means any major shift in Japanese monetary policy will hit EVERY major asset class around the world. THIS IS THE WARNING. Not because rates are higher. But because the last time Japan reached these levels, financial stress was already building. Markets aren't pricing that risk today. But eventually, they will. I've spent more than a decade studying macroeconomics and market cycles. I've called major market tops and bottoms, including Bitcoin's $126K ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I'll post the next call here first.

🚨WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD JUST HAPPENED!! Japan just hit the panic button. The BOJ has officially hiked interest rates to 1.25%. Japan hasn't seen rates this high since the 1990s. And if you think this has no impact on global markets... YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG. Every time the BOJ raised rates, Bitcoin crashed 20%+ within days. But this goes far beyond Bitcoin and risk assets. This is about global liquidity. This is about capital moving across borders. And this is about a market that is completely unprepared for what comes next. Let me explain. The last time Japan operated around these interest rate levels, the global financial system was already under serious pressure. In 1994, the infamous "Great Bond Massacre" destroyed roughly $1.5 TRILLION in bond market value. Then the pressure accelerated. In early 1995, the Japanese yen went PARABOLIC. On April 19, 1995, USD/JPY collapsed to 79.75 - the lowest level ever recorded. Now here's what almost nobody is talking about. Japan tightened monetary policy... And then it was forced to reverse course. Later that same year, the BOJ cut its discount rate back to 0.50%. That one fact tells you EVERYTHING. Because when Japan tightens into a fragile financial system, the consequences don't remain inside Japan. Japan is a critical pillar of global liquidity. Japan is one of the world's largest sources of funding. And Japan remains one of the largest foreign holders of U.S. debt. Today, Japan holds more than $1.15 TRILLION in U.S. Treasuries. That means any major shift in Japanese monetary policy will hit EVERY major asset class around the world. THIS IS THE WARNING. Not because rates are higher. But because the last time Japan reached these levels, financial stress was already building. Markets aren't pricing that risk today. But eventually, they will. I've spent more than a decade studying macroeconomics and market cycles. I've called major market tops and bottoms, including Bitcoin's $126K ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I'll post the next call here first.

0xNobler

123,923 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen

Trump doesn’t need to fire Powell; he can just sideline him entirely by announcing his successor tomorrow. Just like world leaders turned away from Biden, markets would turn away from Powell, and mortgage and government bond rates would start to come down immediately. Remember what happened after Trump’s victory in 2020—Joe Biden was still technically president, but no foreign leader, diplomat, or CEO cared. They all rushed to Mar-a-Lago to meet with Trump because everyone knew who the next leader was. Apply that same logic to the Fed. If Trump announces that the next Fed Chair is Scott Bessent, the bond market, which drives real-world rates far more than the Fed’s overnight rate, would begin ignoring Powell’s stubbornness and shift focus to Bessent’s commitment to bring rates back in line with economic reality. Bessent would effectively become the shadow Fed chair. He could speak across the country and signal clearly: when I take office in May 2026 (when Powell's term is up), rates are coming down by a lot. As someone who spent a decade trading interest rate derivatives, I can tell you—the bond market would have no choice but to start pricing that in. Interest rates on mortgages, credit cards, and government debt would fall almost immediately because Bessent would be seen as credible, confirmable, and committed to ending the artificially high interest rates that Powell is imposing on our economy.

Trump doesn’t need to fire Powell; he can just sideline him entirely by announcing his successor tomorrow. Just like world leaders turned away from Biden, markets would turn away from Powell, and mortgage and government bond rates would start to come down immediately. Remember what happened after Trump’s victory in 2020—Joe Biden was still technically president, but no foreign leader, diplomat, or CEO cared. They all rushed to Mar-a-Lago to meet with Trump because everyone knew who the next leader was. Apply that same logic to the Fed. If Trump announces that the next Fed Chair is Scott Bessent, the bond market, which drives real-world rates far more than the Fed’s overnight rate, would begin ignoring Powell’s stubbornness and shift focus to Bessent’s commitment to bring rates back in line with economic reality. Bessent would effectively become the shadow Fed chair. He could speak across the country and signal clearly: when I take office in May 2026 (when Powell's term is up), rates are coming down by a lot. As someone who spent a decade trading interest rate derivatives, I can tell you—the bond market would have no choice but to start pricing that in. Interest rates on mortgages, credit cards, and government debt would fall almost immediately because Bessent would be seen as credible, confirmable, and committed to ending the artificially high interest rates that Powell is imposing on our economy.

James Fishback

379,788 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

NEW: Karoline Leavitt holds up Trump’s handwritten note to Fed Chair Powell, telling him to cut rates. This one’s classic Trump and Leavitt made sure everyone in the media saw it. She held up the paper during the press briefing, pointing to the long list of countries with lower interest rates than the U.S.: “We have interest rates that are still too high, so the president sent this note to the Fed Chair today.” Reading from the chart she waved for cameras: “This is a chart of all of the interest rates of many countries throughout the world. At the top is Switzerland. They're only paying a quarter for interest rates.” Then she rattled off the list: “Cambodia, Japan, Denmark, Thailand, Botswana, Barbados, Taiwan, Bulgaria, Cuba, Sweden, Morocco, Cabo Verde, South Korea, Algeria, Canada, Albania, Libya, Malaysia, China, New Zealand, Trinidad and Tobago...” “All paying lower interest rates than the United States of America, which has one of the hottest and strongest economies in the world.” Then she read Trump’s blunt message to Jerome Powell, signed and delivered: “Jerome, you are as usual too late, you have cost the USA a fortune and continue to do so. You should lower the rate by a lot. Hundreds of billions of dollars are being lost, and there is low inflation.” “The president is right, there is historically low inflation thanks to his policies.”

NEW: Karoline Leavitt holds up Trump’s handwritten note to Fed Chair Powell, telling him to cut rates. This one’s classic Trump and Leavitt made sure everyone in the media saw it. She held up the paper during the press briefing, pointing to the long list of countries with lower interest rates than the U.S.: “We have interest rates that are still too high, so the president sent this note to the Fed Chair today.” Reading from the chart she waved for cameras: “This is a chart of all of the interest rates of many countries throughout the world. At the top is Switzerland. They're only paying a quarter for interest rates.” Then she rattled off the list: “Cambodia, Japan, Denmark, Thailand, Botswana, Barbados, Taiwan, Bulgaria, Cuba, Sweden, Morocco, Cabo Verde, South Korea, Algeria, Canada, Albania, Libya, Malaysia, China, New Zealand, Trinidad and Tobago...” “All paying lower interest rates than the United States of America, which has one of the hottest and strongest economies in the world.” Then she read Trump’s blunt message to Jerome Powell, signed and delivered: “Jerome, you are as usual too late, you have cost the USA a fortune and continue to do so. You should lower the rate by a lot. Hundreds of billions of dollars are being lost, and there is low inflation.” “The president is right, there is historically low inflation thanks to his policies.”

The Vigilant Fox 🦊

1,039,977 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Peter Thiel just said America’s deficit era is ending. His argument: once interest rates stopped being zero, the West’s model of big welfare states, already-high taxes, and large deficits stopped being sustainable. There are only three choices left. 1. Massively cut spending 3. Massively hike taxes 3. Keep kicking the can down the road For close to 20 years, the answer has been #3. Ever since the 2008 crisis, we’ve just been borrowing more and more money. The result is a fiscal trap that arithmetic, not ideology, is now closing. Think exploding interest costs crowding out everything else. Trust funds running down. No slack left for the next shock. A country that used cheap money to delay every hard choice. The numbers already show the can is getting heavier: > FY2026 deficit already $1.4 trillion through 9 months and on track for $2T or more > Total federal debt around $40T, roughly 123% of GDP > Annual interest now over $1T Then he added the part people usually skip: “My intuition is we’re close to the point where that ends, and then you’re going to be pushed to a very non-centrist solution of either socialist levels of taxation or some really tough austerity measures.” Zero rates made centrism look possible. Higher rates make it look like delay. It seems America’s real fiscal problem may not be starting the spending. It’s refusing to admit the cheap-money version of kicking the can has an expiration date.

Peter Thiel just said America’s deficit era is ending. His argument: once interest rates stopped being zero, the West’s model of big welfare states, already-high taxes, and large deficits stopped being sustainable. There are only three choices left. 1. Massively cut spending 3. Massively hike taxes 3. Keep kicking the can down the road For close to 20 years, the answer has been #3. Ever since the 2008 crisis, we’ve just been borrowing more and more money. The result is a fiscal trap that arithmetic, not ideology, is now closing. Think exploding interest costs crowding out everything else. Trust funds running down. No slack left for the next shock. A country that used cheap money to delay every hard choice. The numbers already show the can is getting heavier: > FY2026 deficit already $1.4 trillion through 9 months and on track for $2T or more > Total federal debt around $40T, roughly 123% of GDP > Annual interest now over $1T Then he added the part people usually skip: “My intuition is we’re close to the point where that ends, and then you’re going to be pushed to a very non-centrist solution of either socialist levels of taxation or some really tough austerity measures.” Zero rates made centrism look possible. Higher rates make it look like delay. It seems America’s real fiscal problem may not be starting the spending. It’s refusing to admit the cheap-money version of kicking the can has an expiration date.

Linas Beliūnas

553,997 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen

For 30 years, Japanese investors borrowed money at near-zero interest rates and poured trillions into US stocks and bonds. It was FREE money with a 5% return from US stocks and bonds. But Japan's interest rates just hit their highest level since 1999, jumping above 2%. Meanwhile, US rates dropped from 5% to 4%. Add in currency conversion costs, and suddenly that "free money" trade barely breaks even—or loses money entirely. But here’s the problem. When a trade stops being profitable, investors don't just hold and hope. They exit. And to exit the carry trade, Japanese investors must sell their US holdings to pay back their yen-denominated loans. We're not talking about millions—this is a multi-trillion dollar position built up over three decades. We saw a preview in 2024 when Japan hinted at rate hikes—US markets had a mini-meltdown. And that’s just the start of it. Japan holds $1.4 trillion in US debt. T he new prime minister needs money for tax cuts and stimulus. If she starts selling that debt to fund her agenda, US interest rates rise, borrowing costs spike, and stock prices fall. This isn't a crisis yet—but it's a ticking time bomb most investors don't even know exists. Let me explain how you can prepare for this. I've put together a complete action plan that shows you exactly when to sell, how to position your portfolio, and which assets win when governments start printing money. Watch the full breakdown here:

For 30 years, Japanese investors borrowed money at near-zero interest rates and poured trillions into US stocks and bonds. It was FREE money with a 5% return from US stocks and bonds. But Japan's interest rates just hit their highest level since 1999, jumping above 2%. Meanwhile, US rates dropped from 5% to 4%. Add in currency conversion costs, and suddenly that "free money" trade barely breaks even—or loses money entirely. But here’s the problem. When a trade stops being profitable, investors don't just hold and hope. They exit. And to exit the carry trade, Japanese investors must sell their US holdings to pay back their yen-denominated loans. We're not talking about millions—this is a multi-trillion dollar position built up over three decades. We saw a preview in 2024 when Japan hinted at rate hikes—US markets had a mini-meltdown. And that’s just the start of it. Japan holds $1.4 trillion in US debt. T he new prime minister needs money for tax cuts and stimulus. If she starts selling that debt to fund her agenda, US interest rates rise, borrowing costs spike, and stock prices fall. This isn't a crisis yet—but it's a ticking time bomb most investors don't even know exists. Let me explain how you can prepare for this. I've put together a complete action plan that shows you exactly when to sell, how to position your portfolio, and which assets win when governments start printing money. Watch the full breakdown here:

Felix Prehn 🐶

45,592 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Yesterday, Jerome Powell refused to guarantee a rate cut in December—meaning no relief on mortgages or credit cards for Americans. But he had no problem guaranteeing a rate cut in August 2024 to rig the election for Kamala Harris. President Trump has largely defeated inflation, bringing CPI to 1.9% since taking office—below the Fed’s 2% target. So why are interest rates still near 20-year highs? There’s only one reason: Powell doesn’t want to help President Trump. He doesn’t want to help the Golden Age. Powell's stubborn recalcitrance is hurting American families.

Yesterday, Jerome Powell refused to guarantee a rate cut in December—meaning no relief on mortgages or credit cards for Americans. But he had no problem guaranteeing a rate cut in August 2024 to rig the election for Kamala Harris. President Trump has largely defeated inflation, bringing CPI to 1.9% since taking office—below the Fed’s 2% target. So why are interest rates still near 20-year highs? There’s only one reason: Powell doesn’t want to help President Trump. He doesn’t want to help the Golden Age. Powell's stubborn recalcitrance is hurting American families.

James Fishback

179,060 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

‼️EVERYONE IS WATCHING THE BOATS. ALMOST NOBODY IS WATCHING THE MONEY MOVING AND THE POTENTIAL CRISIS AHEAD‼️ While everyone is watching the boats arriving in Spain… Global investors may be quietly moving billions. Here’s why it matters: ➡️ The U.S. has reportedly joined Japan in supporting the yen for the first time in almost 30 years. ➡️ Japan is raising interest rates. ➡️ The yen carry trade is unwinding. ➡️ Investors sell assets and move money. ➡️ The question is: Where does that money go? If global capital starts favouring America and Japan over Europe: • Europe attracts less investment. • Growth slows. • Jobs come under pressure. • The euro weakens. • Imports become more expensive. • Inflation rises. • Interest rates stay higher. • Mortgages stay expensive. • Governments spend more on debt and less on public services. Now add Red Sea disruption and the risk of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz… That’s more inflationary pressure. One intervention won’t change the world. But if this is the start of a bigger shift in global capital… By the time it reaches your mortgage, your pension and your weekly shop….. the money has already moved.

‼️EVERYONE IS WATCHING THE BOATS. ALMOST NOBODY IS WATCHING THE MONEY MOVING AND THE POTENTIAL CRISIS AHEAD‼️ While everyone is watching the boats arriving in Spain… Global investors may be quietly moving billions. Here’s why it matters: ➡️ The U.S. has reportedly joined Japan in supporting the yen for the first time in almost 30 years. ➡️ Japan is raising interest rates. ➡️ The yen carry trade is unwinding. ➡️ Investors sell assets and move money. ➡️ The question is: Where does that money go? If global capital starts favouring America and Japan over Europe: • Europe attracts less investment. • Growth slows. • Jobs come under pressure. • The euro weakens. • Imports become more expensive. • Inflation rises. • Interest rates stay higher. • Mortgages stay expensive. • Governments spend more on debt and less on public services. Now add Red Sea disruption and the risk of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz… That’s more inflationary pressure. One intervention won’t change the world. But if this is the start of a bigger shift in global capital… By the time it reaches your mortgage, your pension and your weekly shop….. the money has already moved.

Melissa Ciummei

27,730 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten