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Ювелирная работа оператора дрона #войнасукраиной #HIMARS #Китай #Moldova #Donbas #China #Crimea #ATACMS #Ukrainian #Бахмут #Donbas #Bakhmut

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Today is the 11th anniversary of the start of war in the Donbas. It was launched on April 12th 2014 in Sloviansk by a group of around 60 special forces and paramilitary men led by the Russian GRU agent Igor ”Strelkov” Girkin. They crossed the border from Russia on April 11th and took control of the government building in Sloviansk on April 12th. Strelkov had been present in Ukraine from the start of the war, having entered Crimea on February 26th and participated in the armed storming of the Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea on February 27th. In March 2014, his unit stormed a photogrammetric center in Simferopol, further consolidating control over strategic locations. Strelkov was instrumental in organizing local pro-Russian militias and coordinating with Russian regular forces, particularly the so-called "little green men" (Russian special forces without insignia). Strelkov was a former officer of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), having served until at least 2012 and was an officer of Russia’s military intelligence (GRU). He was closely linked to Sergey Aksyonov, the Russian-installed prime minister of Crimea, serving as a security aide and advisor. After Crimea, Strelkov moved to eastern Ukraine, leading a group of 52–55 armed militants across the Russian-Ukrainian border on the night of April 11–12, 2014, to seize Sloviansk, a city in Ukraine’s Donetsk region. - On April 12, 2014, his group captured key administrative buildings, including the police station, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) offices, and city administration, declaring Sloviansk part of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). - Strelkov established himself as the military commander of Sloviansk, organizing defenses, setting up roadblocks, and overseeing operations that included ambushes, kidnappings, and executions. - He admitted to sparking the broader Donbas War, stating, “I’m the one who pulled the trigger of war. If our unit hadn’t crossed the border, everything would have fizzled out.” - His forces engaged Ukrainian troops, killed SBU officers, and took OSCE observers hostage. Strelkov ordered the execution of several individuals, including Ukrainians Yurii Popravko, Yurii Diakovskyi, and Volodymyr Rybak. - By May 2014, he was named “commander-in-chief” and “defense minister” of the DPR, consolidating control over separatist fighters in the region. Facing intense Ukrainian military pressure, Strelkov’s forces retreated from Sloviansk to Donetsk on July 5, 2014, after which his influence waned, and he was dismissed in August 2014. It was also in August that large formations of the Russian regular army invaded the Donbas region from Russia to stop the Ukrainian Army from crushing the pro-Russian separatist forces that had taken control of some cities in the region. Strelkov later fell out with Putin, accusing him of not taking enough of Ukraine and being too weak. Strelkov was sentenced to 4 years in prison last year for ”inciting extremism” Sloviansk is still in Ukrainian hands 11 years after Strelkov’s attack and 3 years after Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Visegrád 24

410,602 次观看 • 1 年前

[STRATEGIC ANALYSIS] Part I – POKROVSK, The Fall of the Corridor Russian forces have now been geolocated controlling Rodynske, with confirmation of their presence in Krasnyi Lyman. This narrows the Ukrainian exit corridor to roughly 5 km, leaving a single road through Rivne under sustained Russian fire control. (Maps from Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 et Poulet volant ) Losses during this retreat are expected to be significant, likely resulting in a casualty ratio below two to one, unfavorable to Ukraine. This reflects a recurrent pattern of the war: Ukrainian forces end up in semi encircled positions with limited supply routes, facing an adversary with overwhelming firepower. The result is predictable: heavy attrition and diminished operational capacity. This is not deliberate strategy by Ukraine. Having lost the initiative, the Ukrainian command is fighting without a coherent grand strategy, compelled to defend the Donbas fortress belt to delay northern Donetsk’s fall. The “meatgrinder” is a Russian concept, not a Ukrainian one. Remaining in besieged pockets to “bleed” Russian troops has never been Ukraine’s objective, as these battles consistently yield unfavorable loss ratios. Historical Context of Similar Battles 2022 1. Mariupol Roughly 3.5k POWs were captured after the final surrender. Once encircled, Ukrainian losses were catastrophic with over 1.6k KIA proven and the near total loss of defending units. 2. Sieverodonetsk Marked the first battle where Ukrainian KIA exceeded Russian, reaching up to 300 KIA per day. It introduced the pattern of partial encirclement and destruction through Russian artillery dominance. 2023 1. Bakhmut UA Losses identified 12k KIA and over 10k MIA, while Russian casualties (mostly Wagner) were estimated at 20–30k KIA. Even under the most optimistic view, that is a two to one ratio at best, achieved at the cost of elite Ukrainian formations such as the 93rd Mechanized Brigade. Between Dec 2022 and Apr 2023, losses totaled 9.6k Ukrainian vs 18.8k Russian theater wide, confirming the ratio. Yet Russian losses consisted mainly of expendable conscripts, leaving Ukraine strategically weakened. Further losses followed during the May–Sept 2023 counteroffensive, especially near Klishiivka, worsening the overall balance. 2. Avdiivka The October 2023 offensive caused high casualties on both sides, continuing until the collapse in Feb 2024. Mediazona recorded 20.1k Russian KIA front wide, while UA Losses listed 9k KIA, mostly in Avdiivka.The 110th Mechanized Brigade was virtually destroyed. Even at best, the 2 to 1 ratio ended with the fall of Ukraine’s most fortified Donbas city. 2024–2025 1. Kursk (Defensive Posture) During Ukraine’s incursion and Russia’s counterattack, Ukrainian forces were trapped around Sudja, repeating the attritional pattern. Losses reached 3k KIA and 11k MIA, with 30% higher armored losses than Russia’s. Russian logistics and command ensured a tighter, lower cost victory. 2. Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, Kostyantynivka, and Others By mid 2025, siege battles across Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, and Kostyantynivka followed identical dynamics: local encirclements, exhausted defenders, restricted supply.Russian forces shifted to small assault groups and infiltration tactics, reducing casualties while sustaining pressure. Ukrainian armor losses rose sharply during the 2025 summer, reflecting logistical strain. Operationally, attrition became increasingly one sided, as Russia paired methodical advances with resource discipline and fire control. Clausewitz warned of late withdrawals: “Reason counsels not to risk the last upon the game, but to retain as much as is necessary for an orderly retreat.” #UkraineRussiaWar️ #Pokrovsk #Warfare

Delwin | Military Theorist

18,489 次观看 • 10 个月前

🇺🇦TODAY' UKRAINE - THE CONSEQUENCE OF 12 YEARS OF TOTAL IDIOCY Zelensky is flying, probably, to one of the most important meetings not only in his political career but in the entire modern history of Ukraine - with Donald Trump Donald J. Trump , who wants and demands the signing of a full and comprehensive peace agreement. Ukraine approaches this meeting on the brink of default: economic, military, and social. How did we get to such a state? Here’s how: February 21, 2014 - the collapse of Yanukovych’s agreement with the opposition, signed under the mediation of the foreign ministers of Germany, France, and Poland. This becomes the trigger for Russia’s seizure of Crimea, while the Ukrainian authorities simply watch and do nothing. Result: loss of Crimea. May 25, 2014 - Poroshenko wins the presidential elections under the slogans of peace. Almost immediately, he orders an offensive in Donbas. After initial successes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russia intervenes, leading to encirclement near Ilovaisk. On September 5, Poroshenko signs Minsk-1. Result: loss of strategic initiative, consolidation of the loss of part of Donbas, weakening of presidential power. February 12, 2015 - signing of Minsk-2 after the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at Debaltseve, caused by the failure to implement Minsk-1 agreements. Result: acceptance of worse conditions, recognition of the special status of the ORDLO regions. April 21, 2019 - Zelensky defeats Poroshenko in the presidential elections, promising to implement the Minsk agreements and “negotiate for peace even with the devil himself.” In practice, he maintains the predecessor’s course, the Minsk agreements remain unfulfilled. Zelensky escalates confrontation with demonstrative actions. Result: loss of trust in the negotiation process, intensification of escalation. February 24, 2022 - Russia launches a full-scale invasion, after which negotiations immediately begin — first in Belarus, then in Turkey. On March 29, in Istanbul, a draft agreement is presented (neutrality, international security guarantees, the Crimea issue deferred for 15 years). On April 19, Zelensky refuses to sign this draft. Result: loss of parts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kharkiv regions. 2025 - Ukraine approaches negotiations mediated by the American president. According to Donald Trump, Ukraine has no leverage in these negotiations: the army is exhausted, the economy destroyed, and a significant part of the territory already lost. And we still do not even know what Russia is demanding. Zelensky’s refusal of Trump’s peace initiatives will be the point of another attempt to obtain independence for Ukraine. A point set by incompetent leaders and indifferent citizens who do not know and do not understand how to defend their rights. Although, having long relied on Americans, they could have learned at least this from them. Mr. Trump, do not let Zelensky continue the war. Simply - do not let it happen. Thank you on behalf of the entire Ukrainian people. God bless you! Rapid Response 47 The White House President Donald J. Trump Marco Rubio Steve Witkoff Special Envoy Steve Witkoff Rep. Victoria Spartz Vice President JD Vance Rep. Anna Paulina Luna Marjorie Taylor Greene Fox News MAGA Resource @amuse New York Post Bannon’s WarRoom Jack Posobiec Mario Nawfal Elon Musk Myroslav Oleshko

Oleksandr Dubinskyi

35,550 次观看 • 1 年前

🚨🇺🇦 INTERVIEW: THE FALL OF POKROVSK - UKRAINE’S BIGGEST LOSS OF THE WAR Ukraine’s strongest fortress in the east is about to fall In the meantime, Ukraine is running out of Patriot missiles, struggling to get Tomahawks, while Russia continues to incrementally gain territory Will Trump and the EU turn things around? Denys Davydov, one of Ukraine’s most trusted military voices, doesn’t think so… We discuss: •⁠ ⁠How Russian glide bombs and drone swarms wiped out entire brigades •⁠ ⁠Why Ukraine’s Patriot systems are nearly empty and running on scraps •⁠ ⁠How U.S. Tomahawks can help but won’t turn the tide •⁠ ⁠And what happens next if the West doesn’t escalate support immediately Captain Deny warns the fall of Pokrovsk is a turning point, and the next few months will decide whether Ukraine stands or falls. 01:10 – Why glide bombs are changing the battlefield 01:32 – Pokrovsk’s fall could make Donbas indefensible 02:10 – Why Russia wants Ukraine as a pro-Russian puppet state 03:00 – The fight for Pokrovsk and what’s at stake 04:15 – 80% of Pokrovsk now infiltrated by Russian infantry 06:20 – Why Ukrainian evacuation came too late 07:35 – Special forces landed, but impact minimal 08:05 – Pokrovsk’s fall would cripple Ukraine’s economy and supply lines 09:30 – Ukraine counterattacking in the north, holding back collapse 10:15 – Why Putin won’t accept any U.S.-brokered peace deal 11:22 – Trump’s proposal for Ukraine to give up Donbas and freeze the war 12:25 – Why Ukraine refuses to surrender territory 13:10 – Could European peacekeepers change the equation 14:25 – The front line is too vast to control 15:10 – Ukraine’s limited resources and fading options 16:15 – Why Davydov says Ukraine can’t retake Crimea or Donbas 17:20 – “Only a Russian collapse can end this war” 18:05 – Casualties rising on both sides 19:00 – Ukraine now conscripting civilians from the streets 19:45 – Russia’s manpower advantage 8-to-1 20:05 – How Ukraine still holds despite being outnumbered 21:40 – Ukraine fighting to preserve identity, not just land 22:40 – Why surrender would erase Ukrainian culture 23:05 – Can Tomahawks or new U.S. weapons change the war 23:50 – Davydov says Tomahawks are “mostly political theater” 24:45 – Sanctions hurt but are short-lived without enforcement 25:25 – Flamingo vs Neptune: Ukraine’s missile problem 27:00 – Why Russia has no incentive to freeze the lines 28:10 – Keeping 800,000 soldiers busy keeps Putin’s regime stable 29:10 – War fatigue in Russia isn’t enough to stop the Kremlin 30:05 – Russia’s economy built to survive sanctions 31:35 – China and Turkey keeping Russia’s trade alive 33:05 – Trump’s new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil 34:10 – Davydov warns sanctions will be bypassed within months 34:55 – “Cheap oil is financially addictive” 35:40 – What Ukraine needs now: guarantees, not promises 36:25 – The limits of Western aid and the illusion of support 37:45 – Why Europe still buys Russian energy 38:30 – Davydov says Ukraine’s only hope is time and attrition 39:55 – The Black Swan scenario: another Prigozhin moment 40:40 – Why Putin fears his soldiers returning home more than NATO 42:15 – Western societies value life, Russia values endurance 43:30 – The roots of the war: invasion, NATO, and broken promises 45:15 – Crimea was seized while Ukraine was neutral 47:00 – Why Davydov says NATO is weaker than people think 48:30 – NATO’s hesitation vs. Russia’s aggression 49:55 – “Putin used NATO as an excuse to attack” 50:35 – Russia’s justification: “protecting Donbas” 52:20 – Why Ukraine can never be neutral 53:05 – The Monroe Doctrine argument and U.S. hypocrisy 54:00 – Denys: NATO threat to Russia was zero 55:00 – Why Russia’s war is ideological, not defensive 56:45 – China says it will never let Russia lose 57:50 – Beijing’s fear of a U.S. victory 58:20 – Trump’s opportunity: make China and Russia compete 59:30 – The U.S. still holding back military power 01:00:25 – Europe funding both sides of the war 01:01:20 – How fast Ukraine can train F-16 and A-10 pilots 01:02:00 – Why Ukraine needs 300 fighter jets to win air superiority 01:03:00 – Patriot systems nearly depleted 01:04:45 – “Without air defense, every village can be erased” 01:06:20 – Closing thoughts: no peace without pressure, no survival without support

Mario Nawfal

1,828,232 次观看 • 9 个月前