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خلال 10 سنوات أسهمت الهيئة العامة للترفيه عبر استثماراتها ومشاريعها وشراكاتها الاستراتيجية في ترسيخ مكانة قطاع الترفيه، محققة أرقاماً وإنجازات غير مسبوقة 🇸🇦💚 Over the past 10 years, the General Entertainment Authority has contributed through its investments, projects, and strategic partnerships to strengthening the entertainment sector, achieving unprecedented milestones...

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الهيئة العامة للترفيه

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41,656 次观看 • 2 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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خلال 10 أعوام.. الترفيه في السعودية صنع لحظات استثنائية، واستقطب أكبر النجوم والعروض العالمية، ورسّخ المملكة كوجهة للترفيه على مستوى العالم 🇸🇦❤️ For 10 years, entertainment in Saudi Arabia created unforgettable moments, attracted the world’s biggest stars and shows, and positioned the Kingdom as a global entertainment destination 🇸🇦❤️ #الترفيه_10_أعوام
0:42

خلال 10 أعوام.. الترفيه في السعودية صنع لحظات استثنائية، واستقطب أكبر النجوم والعروض العالمية، ورسّخ المملكة كوجهة للترفيه على مستوى العالم 🇸🇦❤️ For 10 years, entertainment in Saudi Arabia created unforgettable moments, attracted the world’s biggest stars and shows, and positioned the Kingdom as a global entertainment destination 🇸🇦❤️ #الترفيه_10_أعوام

TURKI ALALSHIKH

992,894 次观看 • 3 个月前

The Hormuz crisis is the precipitating factor in the current energy crisis, but the underlying cause is too little oil and gas production outside the Persian Gulf. Had the world spent the past decade building the oil, gas, LNG, pipeline, and fertilizer infrastructure that engineers designed and companies proposed, the Hormuz crisis would still be a serious geopolitical event, but it would not threaten to cause a recession. North America — The Atlantic Coast Pipeline, a 600-mile natural gas line from West Virginia to North Carolina, saw its cost double from $4.5 billion to $8 billion during years of environmental litigation before Duke Energy and Dominion Energy cancelled it in July 2020. — The Constitution Pipeline from Pennsylvania to New York died the same year. — The PennEast Pipeline won its case at the United States Supreme Court in 2021 and still could not get built because New Jersey refused to issue state permits. — In Canada, TransCanada abandoned the $15.7 billion Energy East pipeline in 2017 after the National Energy Board required an unprecedented review of upstream and downstream emissions. — In January 2024, the Biden administration paused all pending approvals for LNG export terminals shipping to non-free-trade-agreement countries, freezing projects representing tens of billions of cubic feet per day of potential capacity. — Venture Global’s CP2 terminal in Louisiana, designed for 20 million tonnes per annum, sat in regulatory limbo for over a year. — NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG in Texas, with 48 MTPA of planned capacity, stalled alongside it. — PTT Global Chemical’s proposed $10 billion ethane cracker in Belmont County, Ohio, first announced in 2015, remains on indefinite hold after failing to attract financing partners amid climate-driven investor sentiment. — Across the US Gulf Coast, nearly 60% of planned plastic and petrochemical production projects sit on hold. — LNG Canada, the Shell-led terminal at Kitimat, British Columbia, took over six years from construction start to first cargo, with its pipeline running 263% over budget. Environmental review, Indigenous disputes, and contractor cost escalation all contributed. — Pieridae Energy’s Goldboro LNG project in Nova Scotia, a 10 MTPA facility first proposed in 2012, was abandoned in November 2023 after more than a decade of permitting and financing obstacles. Australia — Australia’s Santos’s Barossa gas project was halted midway through construction after a Federal Court ruling overturned its environmental approval. — Woodside’s Scarborough project faces ongoing litigation from the Australian Conservation Foundation seeking to block it on climate grounds. Africa — Perhaps nowhere has the damage been more consequential than in Africa. At COP26 in 2021, wealthy nations pledged to halt overseas development finance for gas projects, a commitment that fell hardest on the continent least responsible for climate change and most in need of energy infrastructure. — The World Bank stopped financing oil and gas extraction in 2019 and imposed restrictive conditions on downstream gas projects. — The European Investment Bank announced a complete ban on unabated fossil fuel financing by the end of 2021, with its president declaring that “gas is over.” — At least 21 other development finance institutions followed suit. As a result: — TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG project sat under force majeure for four and a half years after the UK Export Credit Agency and other backers withdrew climate-motivated financing. — The East African Crude Oil Pipeline lost financing commitments from more than 30 major international banks under pressure from climatists. Europe — France prevented the completion of a third gas interconnector with Spain, citing climate neutrality goals. — The United Kingdom imposed a moratorium on fracking in 2019 despite sitting atop one of Europe’s most promising shale gas formations. — Germany, which shuttered its last three nuclear plants in April 2023, compounded its gas dependency by refusing to develop domestic shale resources. — CF Industries permanently shut the UK’s largest ammonia plant at Billingham, a facility that also produced 60% of Britain’s food-grade CO2. — Yara International curtailed output across plants in France, Italy, and Belgium before permanently closing its 400,000 tonne per year ammonia facility at Tertre, Belgium, in October 2024. These closures occurred because European climate policy made gas too expensive for the domestic industry to survive.
4:13

The Hormuz crisis is the precipitating factor in the current energy crisis, but the underlying cause is too little oil and gas production outside the Persian Gulf. Had the world spent the past decade building the oil, gas, LNG, pipeline, and fertilizer infrastructure that engineers designed and companies proposed, the Hormuz crisis would still be a serious geopolitical event, but it would not threaten to cause a recession. North America — The Atlantic Coast Pipeline, a 600-mile natural gas line from West Virginia to North Carolina, saw its cost double from $4.5 billion to $8 billion during years of environmental litigation before Duke Energy and Dominion Energy cancelled it in July 2020. — The Constitution Pipeline from Pennsylvania to New York died the same year. — The PennEast Pipeline won its case at the United States Supreme Court in 2021 and still could not get built because New Jersey refused to issue state permits. — In Canada, TransCanada abandoned the $15.7 billion Energy East pipeline in 2017 after the National Energy Board required an unprecedented review of upstream and downstream emissions. — In January 2024, the Biden administration paused all pending approvals for LNG export terminals shipping to non-free-trade-agreement countries, freezing projects representing tens of billions of cubic feet per day of potential capacity. — Venture Global’s CP2 terminal in Louisiana, designed for 20 million tonnes per annum, sat in regulatory limbo for over a year. — NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG in Texas, with 48 MTPA of planned capacity, stalled alongside it. — PTT Global Chemical’s proposed $10 billion ethane cracker in Belmont County, Ohio, first announced in 2015, remains on indefinite hold after failing to attract financing partners amid climate-driven investor sentiment. — Across the US Gulf Coast, nearly 60% of planned plastic and petrochemical production projects sit on hold. — LNG Canada, the Shell-led terminal at Kitimat, British Columbia, took over six years from construction start to first cargo, with its pipeline running 263% over budget. Environmental review, Indigenous disputes, and contractor cost escalation all contributed. — Pieridae Energy’s Goldboro LNG project in Nova Scotia, a 10 MTPA facility first proposed in 2012, was abandoned in November 2023 after more than a decade of permitting and financing obstacles. Australia — Australia’s Santos’s Barossa gas project was halted midway through construction after a Federal Court ruling overturned its environmental approval. — Woodside’s Scarborough project faces ongoing litigation from the Australian Conservation Foundation seeking to block it on climate grounds. Africa — Perhaps nowhere has the damage been more consequential than in Africa. At COP26 in 2021, wealthy nations pledged to halt overseas development finance for gas projects, a commitment that fell hardest on the continent least responsible for climate change and most in need of energy infrastructure. — The World Bank stopped financing oil and gas extraction in 2019 and imposed restrictive conditions on downstream gas projects. — The European Investment Bank announced a complete ban on unabated fossil fuel financing by the end of 2021, with its president declaring that “gas is over.” — At least 21 other development finance institutions followed suit. As a result: — TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG project sat under force majeure for four and a half years after the UK Export Credit Agency and other backers withdrew climate-motivated financing. — The East African Crude Oil Pipeline lost financing commitments from more than 30 major international banks under pressure from climatists. Europe — France prevented the completion of a third gas interconnector with Spain, citing climate neutrality goals. — The United Kingdom imposed a moratorium on fracking in 2019 despite sitting atop one of Europe’s most promising shale gas formations. — Germany, which shuttered its last three nuclear plants in April 2023, compounded its gas dependency by refusing to develop domestic shale resources. — CF Industries permanently shut the UK’s largest ammonia plant at Billingham, a facility that also produced 60% of Britain’s food-grade CO2. — Yara International curtailed output across plants in France, Italy, and Belgium before permanently closing its 400,000 tonne per year ammonia facility at Tertre, Belgium, in October 2024. These closures occurred because European climate policy made gas too expensive for the domestic industry to survive.

Michael Shellenberger

623,149 次观看 • 4 个月前

KBW has come to a close. This past week was so busy that it’s hard to even remember how the days went by. The entire Abstract team on the ground pushed through 5–10 meetings, interviews, and events each day, sometimes on IV drips, fighting our own battles on every front. We spent meaningful time and conversations with major Korean teams and institutions (still under wraps) that we’re building with, as well as domestic and global stakeholders working together to grow Abstract. We believe we’ll be able to share some of these outcomes in the near future. What we reminded ourselves at every moment was to “create culturally meaningful events” and to “radiate positive energy with a smile, no matter how hard it gets.” Some of the highlights include: > The Four Pillars mega research paper by @13300RPM and > GreenHaus’ culture booth featuring Official_MODHAUS’ tripleS official, Official ARTMS, and idntt (all members showed up) > The Green Room at WEPLE OFFICIAL, the biggest NFT gallery in Korea, timed with the Seoul International Fireworks Festival > A performance by tripleS members decked out head-to-toe in Pudgy Penguins official clothing > A trifecta panel featuring Luca Netz 🐧✳️ (Chain), Joseph Baek, co-founder of Modhaus (App), and ALEX | ZK, inventor of ZKsync (Stack) We’ve experienced events all over the world, but this year’s KBW stood out with an unprecedented number of side events and intense competition. Unlike other events, every marketing team members had to be mobilized and strategize how to pull eyeballs. Each year, KBW grows in scale along with global interest in Korea. While Asia is home to Hong Kong, Singapore, China, Japan, and many others, it’s clear that Korea is rapidly becoming one of the top priority regions. Now, we move on to the final leg of our Asia tour at Token2049 in Singapore. Our engineers and ecosystem team has been running a relentless sprint for the past months behind closed doors. You should be excited for new updates and projects. Thank you to everyone who has always shown interest in Abstract and participated in our events. We’ll be back next year with even more fun and culturally meaningful experiences. H/T to all Abstract team on the ground who made KBW a huge success: Luca Netz 🐧✳️ Mason @Phin_totten 💚
0:29

KBW has come to a close. This past week was so busy that it’s hard to even remember how the days went by. The entire Abstract team on the ground pushed through 5–10 meetings, interviews, and events each day, sometimes on IV drips, fighting our own battles on every front. We spent meaningful time and conversations with major Korean teams and institutions (still under wraps) that we’re building with, as well as domestic and global stakeholders working together to grow Abstract. We believe we’ll be able to share some of these outcomes in the near future. What we reminded ourselves at every moment was to “create culturally meaningful events” and to “radiate positive energy with a smile, no matter how hard it gets.” Some of the highlights include: > The Four Pillars mega research paper by @13300RPM and > GreenHaus’ culture booth featuring Official_MODHAUS’ tripleS official, Official ARTMS, and idntt (all members showed up) > The Green Room at WEPLE OFFICIAL, the biggest NFT gallery in Korea, timed with the Seoul International Fireworks Festival > A performance by tripleS members decked out head-to-toe in Pudgy Penguins official clothing > A trifecta panel featuring Luca Netz 🐧✳️ (Chain), Joseph Baek, co-founder of Modhaus (App), and ALEX | ZK, inventor of ZKsync (Stack) We’ve experienced events all over the world, but this year’s KBW stood out with an unprecedented number of side events and intense competition. Unlike other events, every marketing team members had to be mobilized and strategize how to pull eyeballs. Each year, KBW grows in scale along with global interest in Korea. While Asia is home to Hong Kong, Singapore, China, Japan, and many others, it’s clear that Korea is rapidly becoming one of the top priority regions. Now, we move on to the final leg of our Asia tour at Token2049 in Singapore. Our engineers and ecosystem team has been running a relentless sprint for the past months behind closed doors. You should be excited for new updates and projects. Thank you to everyone who has always shown interest in Abstract and participated in our events. We’ll be back next year with even more fun and culturally meaningful experiences. H/T to all Abstract team on the ground who made KBW a huge success: Luca Netz 🐧✳️ Mason @Phin_totten 💚

Brian Hong

31,459 次观看 • 10 个月前

HYBE and Min Hee-jin NewJeans Controversy from the Perspective of a 20-Year Entertainment Industry Expert | Kim Yoon-ji, Senior Researcher at the Overseas Economic Research Institute of the Export-Import Bank of Korea #1 [Investment Insight] 증시각도기TV HYBE has shown a somewhat immature side throughout this process. The essence of the issue has become less important. Hello, viewers and investors of Stock TV. Recently, there has been a lot of societal concern about the entertainment industry. Last year, it did well, but the question remains about how it will fare this year. We’re joined by Kim Yoon-ji, Senior Researcher at the Korea Eximbank Overseas Economic Research Institute, to discuss this. Welcome. Today, I brought a drink because this topic is not easy to discuss soberly. The situation between HYBE, Min Hee-jin, and NewJeans has escalated, and unfortunately, it’s no longer just management fighting but the artists have joined the fray. I’ve heard from someone in the industry that the close relationship between a producer and an artist is inevitable. In the past, there have been similar cases where producers and artists were tightly knit. Now, something similar has happened with Min Hee-jin and HYBE. Most people outside the industry don’t know the exact terms of the contract between Min Hee-jin and HYBE. As my own son works in the entertainment field, I’m well aware of how important it is to work with a good producer. For a company like HYBE, which has invested tens or even hundreds of billions of won, it’s unthinkable that they would allow NewJeans to separate and go independent after establishing their position. Many in the industry agree that this doesn’t make sense. To the general public, NewJeans might seem like the underdogs, and people might feel they should be allowed to leave. But from the perspective of the entertainment industry, which requires substantial capital to grow, the relationship between investors and artists is key. You can’t discuss this industry without acknowledging the role of investors. This case is different from situations where individual members leave, as seen in the past with groups that had Chinese members. This isn’t about a single member leaving; it’s more about the fact that, in this industry, the producers are as important as the artists themselves. From the beginning, NewJeans has been marketed as Min Hee-jin’s girl group, so the idea of them continuing without her feels different. We need to approach this from a different angle. That said, it doesn’t mean HYBE should completely cut ties. Many people have different initial thoughts about the situation, but the core issue here is the importance of the relationship between producers and the company, especially when substantial investment is involved. From my perspective, the fundamental question is: what exactly was attempted? I still find this unclear. In any company, it's common to hear people say, "I want to quit, I can't work with this boss, I'm leaving tomorrow." We all talk about this with friends or colleagues. Sometimes, we even ask others to let us know if there’s a good opportunity elsewhere. But actually submitting a resignation is a whole different issue. But in the new premise, I still wonder what exactly they were trying to do. What exactly was attempted? We always talk about it at work, right? "I'm going to quit. I can't work with that boss anymore. I'm leaving tomorrow." We always have those conversations. We talk about it with our friends, with team members, and even ask friends outside of work to let us know if they hear of any good positions. But actually submitting a resignation is a whole different issue, isn't it? Looking at how the situation first unfolded, it seems like HYBE was the one to bring things to light. They shared a lot with the press, and Min Hee-jin, the CEO, responded with a strong counterstatement. HYBE was saying, "Min Hee-jin is trying to do this and that," but CEO Min was like, "What else have I done apart from that message on KakaoTalk?" The court also judged that they weren't sure what actions had actually been attempted. To me, this seems like the fact of the matter. Clearly, HYBE's relationship with CEO Min Hee-jin might not be good. There could have been friction about how a subsidiary operates so independently from the parent company. There were likely various issues internally, but they should have been resolved within the company without making the problems visible externally. The fact that they let it spill outside before resolving it was a huge mistake on HYBE's part, revealing weaknesses in their management abilities. In my view, this has greatly devalued HYBE, becoming a powerful force that has dragged down their valuation. Throughout this process, HYBE displayed a level of immaturity, and the core of the issue became less important. The real concern for investors now is whether the company can effectively handle issues like these. Once this problem is resolved, can the remaining HYBE groups continue to grow securely? This business is all about reputation. HYBE is now seen as a company that ousts female CEOs simply because she didn't follow their orders. That perception leaves a lasting impression on people's minds, damaging the company's future operations. From an investor's perspective, two major incidents have happened in quick succession. The first was the boost in value during 2020 when HYBE sold a huge number of albums during COVID-19, creating the sense that the entertainment industry was Korea's next big sector. But then, this recent issue with Min Hee-jin, alongside BLACKPINK's contract situation, has put a serious damper on things. BLACKPINK didn't renew their contract as a group, and though they claim to continue working together in some capacity, it's not the same as before. YG Entertainment's profitability has plummeted, revealing how dependent they were on BLACKPINK. This has left investors wondering whether the entertainment business is just a limited-time, seven-year affair. If BLACKPINK had carried on smoothly into the next generation, it would have seemed like a sustainable business, and investors would have continued to trust in the long-term future of Korean entertainment. But now, we're seeing the cracks in that perception. It’s become a question of how to invest in a business with a lifespan of only seven years, when even the manufacturing industry lasts longer than that. The BLACKPINK incident and the NewJeans situation have both severely harmed investor confidence. HYBE's struggles with its artists are analogous to a manufacturing company facing a revolt from its workers. When investors look at this instability, they start questioning whether the business is even viable. The concept of sustainability has been seriously undermined, and the fact that the seven-year contract issue has been a long-standing concern doesn’t make it any easier to deal with. What used to reassure investors was the belief that when a seven-year contract ended, the company would already have the next seven years planned out, ready to sustain their business. That faith in the big entertainment companies has been shaken. Achieving the kind of success that BTS or BLACKPINK did is incredibly difficult, and passing the baton to the next generation is no simple task. Even though investors had faith that YG would produce another BLACKPINK-level group, now that trust is faltering. However, I do think people are now looking at contracts a bit differently. In the past, when a group disbanded, the members would scatter. But now, groups like BLACKPINK continue to work together even while pursuing solo projects. This shows that they understand the importance of sticking together, and I thought that this might help extend the longevity of these groups. But in reality, very few cases of disbanded groups have seen much success with individual members pursuing separate careers. There aren’t many examples where groups have stayed active for long, especially when individual members run into personal issues. Take Big Bang, for instance—they’ve been around for a while, but their personal scandals have made it hard for the group to recover fully. In the entertainment business, it’s rare for groups to last more than seven years, and age is also a factor. Once a group surpasses the seven-year mark, the members tend to be quite a bit older. With BTS, they need to show a fresh side if they’re to keep running strong. One of the most disheartening things mentioned by the members was that they didn’t feel respected. This ties into a larger issue in our society, as we're seeing with the national discussion around workplace bullying. If we think about how BTS achieved success, it's clear why this is such a serious issue. Back when BTS rose to fame, they shared how they weren’t from one of the top three agencies and positioned themselves as underdogs who worked hard to gain recognition. This resonated with many young people who felt that if you work hard enough, you can succeed, even without the backing of a major company. This message gave hope to many, not only in Korea but also globally. BTS’s fan base, especially in the U.S., includes many people who identify as outsiders, those who don’t feel they belong to the mainstream—whether in terms of race, culture, or social standing. For them, BTS was a source of inspiration, showing that you can still succeed even if you start from the margins. With NewJeans, though there’s talk about Min Hee-jin, the allegations of bullying within the company are hitting a sensitive nerve for fans. It’s unfortunate that the company allowed things to reach a point where such accusations were made. Even if the situation was mostly an internal conflict among the adults in charge, they should have handled it better to avoid involving the artists. In the past, we've seen similar issues, like with Big Bang’s various scandals, which were almost at the level of criminal activity. The current situation with NewJeans might not be as severe, but bullying and exclusion are still serious concerns. Ultimately, experiences like these can serve as valuable lessons for the entertainment industry. This situation has highlighted that the entertainment business is fundamentally about human relationships. From the artists to the products they create, everything revolves around people. The moment someone’s feelings are hurt or relationships are damaged, the entire business can collapse. The entertainment business is all about personal connections, something I've always believed. Recently, I heard about Naver Webtoon’s global success, and it's fascinating to think about how it has outgrown Kakao Webtoon, despite being a later player. Many factors contributed to this success, but someone mentioned that webtoons are also a "personal connection" business. Webtoon creators are tough to manage—they're artists, after all, and keeping them on schedule, especially with weekly deadlines, is a challenging task. CEO Kim Joong has managed to nurture relationships with these creators, making personal connections the backbone of the business. In the entertainment industry, particularly with idols, you can't overlook the importance of personal relationships. The key skill for managing this industry is the ability to connect deeply with both the creators and the artists. HYBE, for instance, doesn’t just need skilled managers who are good with finance or operations. What they truly need are people who can foster those personal relationships, especially when they’re dealing with artists as young as 13 or 15. It’s about ensuring that these young talents feel understood and cared for, so they can be inspired to do their best work. Managing young artists is tricky because their idea of success might be completely different from what adults think. A 13-year-old might not care about owning multiple houses—they might just want to spend time with their family or have the freedom to eat out whenever they want. The manager’s job is to tap into what motivates them and help them thrive in a way that’s meaningful to them. This kind of nurturing is not easy to scale. When a company grows too big, it’s challenging to maintain those close relationships. That's why multi-label approaches, like those seen in large entertainment agencies, are supposed to help. But if personal connections within those labels break down, the whole system can fall apart. This business model seems uniquely suited to Korea. It’s hard to imagine it working the same way in Japan, where there's a more hierarchical, command-driven structure. Japan's entertainment industry often depends on strong, central producers who direct everything. In contrast, Korean idols often rise through collective effort and personal connection, like BTS did. Despite the challenges, I believe Korea’s entertainment sector has room for long-term growth. Many of today’s youth are drawn to this field because it allows them to express their talents and passions. If scandals like the one with NewJeans continue to arise, however, it might dissuade some young people from pursuing these dreams. When you look at what NewJeans members have said, there’s not much to disagree with. They simply want to keep doing what they’ve always done and follow their own creative paths. Ensuring they have the freedom to do so can lead to even greater success. These days, if you ask middle or elementary school students what they want to be when they grow up, many of them will say they want to become idols or YouTubers. They believe that with enough effort, they can make it. The entertainment industry needs to be able to channel that passion and potential into something positive. If Min Hee-jin were to leave HYBE, it’s clear that many companies would be eager to work with her. She mentioned once that “everyone is crazy about money,” and I think that’s why there would be a long line of people wanting to meet with her if she decided to move on. Right now, for example, there are people in the entertainment industry, like CJ, who may not have fully established themselves, or even private investors, just waiting for an opportunity. Many of them are keeping an eye on Min Hee-jin leaving HYBE. This was evident during the recent Tokyo performance, where her creativity was on full display. It was incomparable. That’s why this situation is even more unfortunate. Some people say, "If it wasn’t for the money, how could that group have been created?" But I believe there are people who could have made it happen with or without money. That’s the crucial difference in this case. While I'm not an expert, I was touched by the process of recreating a hit song from a legendary Japanese female singer from the '80s. It felt like a major event. It was amazing because I had never seen anything like it before. Even though I wasn’t familiar with the original song, just seeing it was enough to draw in so much attention and make it feel like a historic moment. That’s what talent is—turning something simple, like a cover song, into a major event. I remember thinking, "How do the Japanese people feel about this?" because the crowd's reaction was incredible. The enthusiasm was surprising, and I wondered what they were thinking while watching it. This is the true power of Korean culture—it’s not just about promoting our own culture but also deeply resonating with others. The entertainment industry’s core business is making audiences happy and even obsessed. Min Hee-jin is undeniably a top-tier artist in this field. If she were to leave HYBE, there would be countless opportunities for her. But if HYBE mishandles this situation, it won’t just be about losing one person—it could destabilize everything. They really need to handle this carefully. As for stocks and investments, that's up to everyone’s individual decisions. We're just having a casual chat here about the entertainment industry. As someone with a child in the business and another who's analyzed the industry, we’re just relaxing with a casual discussion. So, let’s pour a drink and enjoy this conversation. Watch the full video:
24:49

HYBE and Min Hee-jin NewJeans Controversy from the Perspective of a 20-Year Entertainment Industry Expert | Kim Yoon-ji, Senior Researcher at the Overseas Economic Research Institute of the Export-Import Bank of Korea #1 [Investment Insight] 증시각도기TV HYBE has shown a somewhat immature side throughout this process. The essence of the issue has become less important. Hello, viewers and investors of Stock TV. Recently, there has been a lot of societal concern about the entertainment industry. Last year, it did well, but the question remains about how it will fare this year. We’re joined by Kim Yoon-ji, Senior Researcher at the Korea Eximbank Overseas Economic Research Institute, to discuss this. Welcome. Today, I brought a drink because this topic is not easy to discuss soberly. The situation between HYBE, Min Hee-jin, and NewJeans has escalated, and unfortunately, it’s no longer just management fighting but the artists have joined the fray. I’ve heard from someone in the industry that the close relationship between a producer and an artist is inevitable. In the past, there have been similar cases where producers and artists were tightly knit. Now, something similar has happened with Min Hee-jin and HYBE. Most people outside the industry don’t know the exact terms of the contract between Min Hee-jin and HYBE. As my own son works in the entertainment field, I’m well aware of how important it is to work with a good producer. For a company like HYBE, which has invested tens or even hundreds of billions of won, it’s unthinkable that they would allow NewJeans to separate and go independent after establishing their position. Many in the industry agree that this doesn’t make sense. To the general public, NewJeans might seem like the underdogs, and people might feel they should be allowed to leave. But from the perspective of the entertainment industry, which requires substantial capital to grow, the relationship between investors and artists is key. You can’t discuss this industry without acknowledging the role of investors. This case is different from situations where individual members leave, as seen in the past with groups that had Chinese members. This isn’t about a single member leaving; it’s more about the fact that, in this industry, the producers are as important as the artists themselves. From the beginning, NewJeans has been marketed as Min Hee-jin’s girl group, so the idea of them continuing without her feels different. We need to approach this from a different angle. That said, it doesn’t mean HYBE should completely cut ties. Many people have different initial thoughts about the situation, but the core issue here is the importance of the relationship between producers and the company, especially when substantial investment is involved. From my perspective, the fundamental question is: what exactly was attempted? I still find this unclear. In any company, it's common to hear people say, "I want to quit, I can't work with this boss, I'm leaving tomorrow." We all talk about this with friends or colleagues. Sometimes, we even ask others to let us know if there’s a good opportunity elsewhere. But actually submitting a resignation is a whole different issue. But in the new premise, I still wonder what exactly they were trying to do. What exactly was attempted? We always talk about it at work, right? "I'm going to quit. I can't work with that boss anymore. I'm leaving tomorrow." We always have those conversations. We talk about it with our friends, with team members, and even ask friends outside of work to let us know if they hear of any good positions. But actually submitting a resignation is a whole different issue, isn't it? Looking at how the situation first unfolded, it seems like HYBE was the one to bring things to light. They shared a lot with the press, and Min Hee-jin, the CEO, responded with a strong counterstatement. HYBE was saying, "Min Hee-jin is trying to do this and that," but CEO Min was like, "What else have I done apart from that message on KakaoTalk?" The court also judged that they weren't sure what actions had actually been attempted. To me, this seems like the fact of the matter. Clearly, HYBE's relationship with CEO Min Hee-jin might not be good. There could have been friction about how a subsidiary operates so independently from the parent company. There were likely various issues internally, but they should have been resolved within the company without making the problems visible externally. The fact that they let it spill outside before resolving it was a huge mistake on HYBE's part, revealing weaknesses in their management abilities. In my view, this has greatly devalued HYBE, becoming a powerful force that has dragged down their valuation. Throughout this process, HYBE displayed a level of immaturity, and the core of the issue became less important. The real concern for investors now is whether the company can effectively handle issues like these. Once this problem is resolved, can the remaining HYBE groups continue to grow securely? This business is all about reputation. HYBE is now seen as a company that ousts female CEOs simply because she didn't follow their orders. That perception leaves a lasting impression on people's minds, damaging the company's future operations. From an investor's perspective, two major incidents have happened in quick succession. The first was the boost in value during 2020 when HYBE sold a huge number of albums during COVID-19, creating the sense that the entertainment industry was Korea's next big sector. But then, this recent issue with Min Hee-jin, alongside BLACKPINK's contract situation, has put a serious damper on things. BLACKPINK didn't renew their contract as a group, and though they claim to continue working together in some capacity, it's not the same as before. YG Entertainment's profitability has plummeted, revealing how dependent they were on BLACKPINK. This has left investors wondering whether the entertainment business is just a limited-time, seven-year affair. If BLACKPINK had carried on smoothly into the next generation, it would have seemed like a sustainable business, and investors would have continued to trust in the long-term future of Korean entertainment. But now, we're seeing the cracks in that perception. It’s become a question of how to invest in a business with a lifespan of only seven years, when even the manufacturing industry lasts longer than that. The BLACKPINK incident and the NewJeans situation have both severely harmed investor confidence. HYBE's struggles with its artists are analogous to a manufacturing company facing a revolt from its workers. When investors look at this instability, they start questioning whether the business is even viable. The concept of sustainability has been seriously undermined, and the fact that the seven-year contract issue has been a long-standing concern doesn’t make it any easier to deal with. What used to reassure investors was the belief that when a seven-year contract ended, the company would already have the next seven years planned out, ready to sustain their business. That faith in the big entertainment companies has been shaken. Achieving the kind of success that BTS or BLACKPINK did is incredibly difficult, and passing the baton to the next generation is no simple task. Even though investors had faith that YG would produce another BLACKPINK-level group, now that trust is faltering. However, I do think people are now looking at contracts a bit differently. In the past, when a group disbanded, the members would scatter. But now, groups like BLACKPINK continue to work together even while pursuing solo projects. This shows that they understand the importance of sticking together, and I thought that this might help extend the longevity of these groups. But in reality, very few cases of disbanded groups have seen much success with individual members pursuing separate careers. There aren’t many examples where groups have stayed active for long, especially when individual members run into personal issues. Take Big Bang, for instance—they’ve been around for a while, but their personal scandals have made it hard for the group to recover fully. In the entertainment business, it’s rare for groups to last more than seven years, and age is also a factor. Once a group surpasses the seven-year mark, the members tend to be quite a bit older. With BTS, they need to show a fresh side if they’re to keep running strong. One of the most disheartening things mentioned by the members was that they didn’t feel respected. This ties into a larger issue in our society, as we're seeing with the national discussion around workplace bullying. If we think about how BTS achieved success, it's clear why this is such a serious issue. Back when BTS rose to fame, they shared how they weren’t from one of the top three agencies and positioned themselves as underdogs who worked hard to gain recognition. This resonated with many young people who felt that if you work hard enough, you can succeed, even without the backing of a major company. This message gave hope to many, not only in Korea but also globally. BTS’s fan base, especially in the U.S., includes many people who identify as outsiders, those who don’t feel they belong to the mainstream—whether in terms of race, culture, or social standing. For them, BTS was a source of inspiration, showing that you can still succeed even if you start from the margins. With NewJeans, though there’s talk about Min Hee-jin, the allegations of bullying within the company are hitting a sensitive nerve for fans. It’s unfortunate that the company allowed things to reach a point where such accusations were made. Even if the situation was mostly an internal conflict among the adults in charge, they should have handled it better to avoid involving the artists. In the past, we've seen similar issues, like with Big Bang’s various scandals, which were almost at the level of criminal activity. The current situation with NewJeans might not be as severe, but bullying and exclusion are still serious concerns. Ultimately, experiences like these can serve as valuable lessons for the entertainment industry. This situation has highlighted that the entertainment business is fundamentally about human relationships. From the artists to the products they create, everything revolves around people. The moment someone’s feelings are hurt or relationships are damaged, the entire business can collapse. The entertainment business is all about personal connections, something I've always believed. Recently, I heard about Naver Webtoon’s global success, and it's fascinating to think about how it has outgrown Kakao Webtoon, despite being a later player. Many factors contributed to this success, but someone mentioned that webtoons are also a "personal connection" business. Webtoon creators are tough to manage—they're artists, after all, and keeping them on schedule, especially with weekly deadlines, is a challenging task. CEO Kim Joong has managed to nurture relationships with these creators, making personal connections the backbone of the business. In the entertainment industry, particularly with idols, you can't overlook the importance of personal relationships. The key skill for managing this industry is the ability to connect deeply with both the creators and the artists. HYBE, for instance, doesn’t just need skilled managers who are good with finance or operations. What they truly need are people who can foster those personal relationships, especially when they’re dealing with artists as young as 13 or 15. It’s about ensuring that these young talents feel understood and cared for, so they can be inspired to do their best work. Managing young artists is tricky because their idea of success might be completely different from what adults think. A 13-year-old might not care about owning multiple houses—they might just want to spend time with their family or have the freedom to eat out whenever they want. The manager’s job is to tap into what motivates them and help them thrive in a way that’s meaningful to them. This kind of nurturing is not easy to scale. When a company grows too big, it’s challenging to maintain those close relationships. That's why multi-label approaches, like those seen in large entertainment agencies, are supposed to help. But if personal connections within those labels break down, the whole system can fall apart. This business model seems uniquely suited to Korea. It’s hard to imagine it working the same way in Japan, where there's a more hierarchical, command-driven structure. Japan's entertainment industry often depends on strong, central producers who direct everything. In contrast, Korean idols often rise through collective effort and personal connection, like BTS did. Despite the challenges, I believe Korea’s entertainment sector has room for long-term growth. Many of today’s youth are drawn to this field because it allows them to express their talents and passions. If scandals like the one with NewJeans continue to arise, however, it might dissuade some young people from pursuing these dreams. When you look at what NewJeans members have said, there’s not much to disagree with. They simply want to keep doing what they’ve always done and follow their own creative paths. Ensuring they have the freedom to do so can lead to even greater success. These days, if you ask middle or elementary school students what they want to be when they grow up, many of them will say they want to become idols or YouTubers. They believe that with enough effort, they can make it. The entertainment industry needs to be able to channel that passion and potential into something positive. If Min Hee-jin were to leave HYBE, it’s clear that many companies would be eager to work with her. She mentioned once that “everyone is crazy about money,” and I think that’s why there would be a long line of people wanting to meet with her if she decided to move on. Right now, for example, there are people in the entertainment industry, like CJ, who may not have fully established themselves, or even private investors, just waiting for an opportunity. Many of them are keeping an eye on Min Hee-jin leaving HYBE. This was evident during the recent Tokyo performance, where her creativity was on full display. It was incomparable. That’s why this situation is even more unfortunate. Some people say, "If it wasn’t for the money, how could that group have been created?" But I believe there are people who could have made it happen with or without money. That’s the crucial difference in this case. While I'm not an expert, I was touched by the process of recreating a hit song from a legendary Japanese female singer from the '80s. It felt like a major event. It was amazing because I had never seen anything like it before. Even though I wasn’t familiar with the original song, just seeing it was enough to draw in so much attention and make it feel like a historic moment. That’s what talent is—turning something simple, like a cover song, into a major event. I remember thinking, "How do the Japanese people feel about this?" because the crowd's reaction was incredible. The enthusiasm was surprising, and I wondered what they were thinking while watching it. This is the true power of Korean culture—it’s not just about promoting our own culture but also deeply resonating with others. The entertainment industry’s core business is making audiences happy and even obsessed. Min Hee-jin is undeniably a top-tier artist in this field. If she were to leave HYBE, there would be countless opportunities for her. But if HYBE mishandles this situation, it won’t just be about losing one person—it could destabilize everything. They really need to handle this carefully. As for stocks and investments, that's up to everyone’s individual decisions. We're just having a casual chat here about the entertainment industry. As someone with a child in the business and another who's analyzed the industry, we’re just relaxing with a casual discussion. So, let’s pour a drink and enjoy this conversation. Watch the full video:

1tokki

104,638 次观看 • 1 年前

President Donald Trump is causing a constitutional crisis by eliminating the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and giving Elon Musk access to confidential Treasury records, say the media and Democrats. The American people didn’t elect Musk, said Democrats in a rally on Friday, where some House members were disallowed from entering the Department of Education. A judge on Friday restricted Musk’s team’s access to Treasury records. Trump yesterday, in an interview with Bret Baier of Fox, said that Musk would soon begin seeking efficiencies in the Departments of Defense and Education. As such, what’s happening is a “constitutional crisis,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin on Meet the Press, where he threatened a class action lawsuit on behalf of the American people. But there is no constitutional crisis. The American people elected Trump as president, and he, not Congress, exercises authority over all executive branch agencies, including USAID, the Department of Education, the Department of Defense, and the Treasury Department. Trump has clear Constitutional authority to audit the finances overseen by the Treasury and every other agency, and that includes assigning that audit to whoever he chooses. The Constitution grants Congress oversight duties but those powers do not include members being allowed to enter any executive branch building whenever they please. None of that means that the administration should ignore Congress, court orders, or the potential public health problems that could be created by the closure of USAID and freezing of its funds. Said the surgeon, New Yorker author, and former USAID official, Atul Gawande, on X, “20M people with HIV, including 500,000 children, have been cut off from access to medicines keeping them alive. Global HIV transmission, resistance, and deaths will now increase, endangering all.” Gawande added that, as a result of the loss of USAID, the US has lost critical bird flu surveillance, sacrificed humanitarian aid in Gaza, and halted the resettlement of former Islamic State combatants. USAID may have been doing and funding projects that were worthwhile. And it may be that Congress will need to pass legislation to continue those projects through the State Department. But it’s emotional blackmail to suggest the USAID closure and freeze on aid will kill African children. The Trump administration already created a waiver for HIV treatment and resumed aid for tuberculosis, malaria, and newborn health. And USAID’s health programs should be subject to scrutiny, given the agency’s history of using such programs as cover for other activities, including regime change and biodefense research. For example, under President Barack Obama’s administration, USAID was caught using an HIV program to foment rebellion in Cuba. USAID used EcoHealth Alliance as a passthrough organization to funnel $1.1 million to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which was conducting risky gain-of-function experiments that may have caused the Covid pandemic. As such, anyone who truly believes in public health for poor people in poor nations must agree that USAID needs to be reined in and cleaned up. That starts first with precisely the kind of audit the Democrats are trying to stop. After that, USAID — and other government agencies eventually — must justify what they are spending money on. The public’s interest is ensuring that every dollar of taxpayer money is accounted for and justified. A major reason that the American people elected Trump was precisely because they believed he would reform the government, and that meant rooting out abuse, fraud, and waste. There is a large body of evidence of all three in USAID, the DOD, and the Department of Education. And, as for complying with the law on the closure of USAID, support for just such a law is growing in Congress. The media and others in Washington, D.C., have known for decades that USAID was a hub of fraud and abuse. The Washington Post cited two individuals with the Center for Global Development, a center-left think tank funded by Bill Gates that has been defending USAID, who told the Washington Post that a claim by Musk that just 10% of USAID money reached people on the ground was “wildly incorrect and misleading.” But their clarification — that just “10 percent of USAID payments are made directly to organizations in the developing world” and the “remaining 90 percent” is delivered by organizations in the US and developed world — underscored that USAID fundamentally isn’t working. Think about it. If USAID were so effective in achieving its ostensible goal of “development,” why are the countries it works in still so poor and underdeveloped? In truth, Democrats and Republicans alike have recognized for decades that USAID needed reform. In 2015, even the Center for Global Development urged a “top-to-bottom review of USAID’s sector- and country-based activities based upon program effectiveness, allocation of USAID resources, alignment with partner priorities, and national security implications” followed by “comprehensive reform.” As recently as 2021, the media acknowledged the obvious. That year, the New York Times published an article headlined, “U.S. Aid to Central America Hasn’t Slowed Migration. Can Kamala Harris?” In it the Times acknowledged that “experts say the reasons that years of aid have not curbed migration” is in part because “much of the money is handed over to American companies, which swallow a lot of it for salaries, expenses and profits, often before any services are delivered” — precisely the reason President Trump shut down USAID. Wrote the Times, “From 2016 to 2020, 80 percent of the American-financed development projects in Central America were entrusted to American contractors, according to data provided by the U.S. Agency for International Development.” It’s the same story for education. Just 10 days ago, the National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP) released the latest test scores showing yet another decline in reading and continued flat-lining in math for eighth graders. The media described the test results as a “new low” and “even worse” than in the past and “disheartening.” Democrats and the media thus know perfectly well that the Department of Education’s work is either insufficient to counteract the decline or is actively contributing to it, and thus reform of the Department of Education is highly reasonable. And yet Democrats demanded they be allowed to enter the Department of Education headquarters in Washington as though to defend it. From what? Improvement? The position of the Democrats is even more ridiculous when one considers the example of the Defense Department. Will Democrats now, after decades of attacking military spending as wasteful, defend it? If they do, they will alienate their own partisans. But if they don’t, then they will find it difficult to answer the question of why reform is necessary in the military but not in the Department of Education or USAID? Making the situation even more surreal is that it was Democrats, not Republicans, who made the biggest push for government efficiency and reform in the last thirty years. In 1993, shortly after taking office, President Bill Clinton empowered Vice President Al Gore to oversee a “Reinventing Government” initiative. The aim was to streamline bureaucracy, cut costs, and improve government efficiency. It emphasized customer service, performance-based management, and innovation — all things that Musk is famous for implementing at his companies. It’s not obvious why Democrats are opposing Trump’s actions. Doing so reinforces that they are the party of waste, fraud, and abuse. Polling shows that public support for Trump is at an all-time high of 53%, according to a new CBS poll. By contrast, 57% of registered voters have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party, the worst numbers in 17 years. Nor is it obvious why the media has maintained its anti-Trump bias. The Washington Post’s daily traffic declined by nearly 90% from 23 million daily active users in January 2021 to 2.5 to 3 million in the middle of last year. In the week ending November 24, CNN and MSNBC lost 47% and 53% of their primetime viewership. Last month, CNN announced it was laying off 200 employees while MSNBC saw its president step down. Politico’s cofounder said last week that “The left right now, liberal media, has probably never been weaker in my lifetime than right now.” The public desperately wants reform, and 60% of the public has long supported cutting foreign aid, which has long been popular with the public. Why can’t Democrats and the media just embrace Trump’s government efficiency effort? Why are they engaging in such seemingly self-destructive behavior? Please subscribe now to support Public's award winning journalism, watch the rest of the video, and read the rest of the article by alex gutentag and Michael Shellenberger !
9:55

President Donald Trump is causing a constitutional crisis by eliminating the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and giving Elon Musk access to confidential Treasury records, say the media and Democrats. The American people didn’t elect Musk, said Democrats in a rally on Friday, where some House members were disallowed from entering the Department of Education. A judge on Friday restricted Musk’s team’s access to Treasury records. Trump yesterday, in an interview with Bret Baier of Fox, said that Musk would soon begin seeking efficiencies in the Departments of Defense and Education. As such, what’s happening is a “constitutional crisis,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin on Meet the Press, where he threatened a class action lawsuit on behalf of the American people. But there is no constitutional crisis. The American people elected Trump as president, and he, not Congress, exercises authority over all executive branch agencies, including USAID, the Department of Education, the Department of Defense, and the Treasury Department. Trump has clear Constitutional authority to audit the finances overseen by the Treasury and every other agency, and that includes assigning that audit to whoever he chooses. The Constitution grants Congress oversight duties but those powers do not include members being allowed to enter any executive branch building whenever they please. None of that means that the administration should ignore Congress, court orders, or the potential public health problems that could be created by the closure of USAID and freezing of its funds. Said the surgeon, New Yorker author, and former USAID official, Atul Gawande, on X, “20M people with HIV, including 500,000 children, have been cut off from access to medicines keeping them alive. Global HIV transmission, resistance, and deaths will now increase, endangering all.” Gawande added that, as a result of the loss of USAID, the US has lost critical bird flu surveillance, sacrificed humanitarian aid in Gaza, and halted the resettlement of former Islamic State combatants. USAID may have been doing and funding projects that were worthwhile. And it may be that Congress will need to pass legislation to continue those projects through the State Department. But it’s emotional blackmail to suggest the USAID closure and freeze on aid will kill African children. The Trump administration already created a waiver for HIV treatment and resumed aid for tuberculosis, malaria, and newborn health. And USAID’s health programs should be subject to scrutiny, given the agency’s history of using such programs as cover for other activities, including regime change and biodefense research. For example, under President Barack Obama’s administration, USAID was caught using an HIV program to foment rebellion in Cuba. USAID used EcoHealth Alliance as a passthrough organization to funnel $1.1 million to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which was conducting risky gain-of-function experiments that may have caused the Covid pandemic. As such, anyone who truly believes in public health for poor people in poor nations must agree that USAID needs to be reined in and cleaned up. That starts first with precisely the kind of audit the Democrats are trying to stop. After that, USAID — and other government agencies eventually — must justify what they are spending money on. The public’s interest is ensuring that every dollar of taxpayer money is accounted for and justified. A major reason that the American people elected Trump was precisely because they believed he would reform the government, and that meant rooting out abuse, fraud, and waste. There is a large body of evidence of all three in USAID, the DOD, and the Department of Education. And, as for complying with the law on the closure of USAID, support for just such a law is growing in Congress. The media and others in Washington, D.C., have known for decades that USAID was a hub of fraud and abuse. The Washington Post cited two individuals with the Center for Global Development, a center-left think tank funded by Bill Gates that has been defending USAID, who told the Washington Post that a claim by Musk that just 10% of USAID money reached people on the ground was “wildly incorrect and misleading.” But their clarification — that just “10 percent of USAID payments are made directly to organizations in the developing world” and the “remaining 90 percent” is delivered by organizations in the US and developed world — underscored that USAID fundamentally isn’t working. Think about it. If USAID were so effective in achieving its ostensible goal of “development,” why are the countries it works in still so poor and underdeveloped? In truth, Democrats and Republicans alike have recognized for decades that USAID needed reform. In 2015, even the Center for Global Development urged a “top-to-bottom review of USAID’s sector- and country-based activities based upon program effectiveness, allocation of USAID resources, alignment with partner priorities, and national security implications” followed by “comprehensive reform.” As recently as 2021, the media acknowledged the obvious. That year, the New York Times published an article headlined, “U.S. Aid to Central America Hasn’t Slowed Migration. Can Kamala Harris?” In it the Times acknowledged that “experts say the reasons that years of aid have not curbed migration” is in part because “much of the money is handed over to American companies, which swallow a lot of it for salaries, expenses and profits, often before any services are delivered” — precisely the reason President Trump shut down USAID. Wrote the Times, “From 2016 to 2020, 80 percent of the American-financed development projects in Central America were entrusted to American contractors, according to data provided by the U.S. Agency for International Development.” It’s the same story for education. Just 10 days ago, the National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP) released the latest test scores showing yet another decline in reading and continued flat-lining in math for eighth graders. The media described the test results as a “new low” and “even worse” than in the past and “disheartening.” Democrats and the media thus know perfectly well that the Department of Education’s work is either insufficient to counteract the decline or is actively contributing to it, and thus reform of the Department of Education is highly reasonable. And yet Democrats demanded they be allowed to enter the Department of Education headquarters in Washington as though to defend it. From what? Improvement? The position of the Democrats is even more ridiculous when one considers the example of the Defense Department. Will Democrats now, after decades of attacking military spending as wasteful, defend it? If they do, they will alienate their own partisans. But if they don’t, then they will find it difficult to answer the question of why reform is necessary in the military but not in the Department of Education or USAID? Making the situation even more surreal is that it was Democrats, not Republicans, who made the biggest push for government efficiency and reform in the last thirty years. In 1993, shortly after taking office, President Bill Clinton empowered Vice President Al Gore to oversee a “Reinventing Government” initiative. The aim was to streamline bureaucracy, cut costs, and improve government efficiency. It emphasized customer service, performance-based management, and innovation — all things that Musk is famous for implementing at his companies. It’s not obvious why Democrats are opposing Trump’s actions. Doing so reinforces that they are the party of waste, fraud, and abuse. Polling shows that public support for Trump is at an all-time high of 53%, according to a new CBS poll. By contrast, 57% of registered voters have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party, the worst numbers in 17 years. Nor is it obvious why the media has maintained its anti-Trump bias. The Washington Post’s daily traffic declined by nearly 90% from 23 million daily active users in January 2021 to 2.5 to 3 million in the middle of last year. In the week ending November 24, CNN and MSNBC lost 47% and 53% of their primetime viewership. Last month, CNN announced it was laying off 200 employees while MSNBC saw its president step down. Politico’s cofounder said last week that “The left right now, liberal media, has probably never been weaker in my lifetime than right now.” The public desperately wants reform, and 60% of the public has long supported cutting foreign aid, which has long been popular with the public. Why can’t Democrats and the media just embrace Trump’s government efficiency effort? Why are they engaging in such seemingly self-destructive behavior? Please subscribe now to support Public's award winning journalism, watch the rest of the video, and read the rest of the article by alex gutentag and Michael Shellenberger !

Michael Shellenberger

123,199 次观看 • 1 年前

🔴SOYKIRIMCI İSRAİL’İN YAKITINI SOCAR SAĞLIYOR! SOCAR’IN CEO’SU TRT WORLD FORUM PROGRAMINDA KONUŞUYOR! 🔴 SOCAR FUELS ISRAEL'S GENOCIDE! SOCAR CEO SPEAKS ON TRT WORLD FORUM! 🔴 تقوم شركة SOCAR بتزويد "إسرائيل الإبادة الجماعية" بالوقود! الرئيس التنفيذي لـ SOCAR يتحدث في برنامج TRT FORUM! #TRTWorldForum2024 İsrail’in en büyük petrol tedarikçisi Azerbaycan Cumhuriyeti Devlet Petrol Şirketi SOCAR, İsrail’e yapılan ihracatta suç ortağıdır! SOCAR, İsrail’le enerji ortaklıklarını, petrol sevkiyatını alenen sürdürürken, CEO’su Elchin IBADOV 29-30 Kasım’da İstanbul’da yapılacak olan TRT WORLD FORUM’a konuşmacı olarak davet edildi! Eli kanlı SOCAR’ın tecrit edilmesi ve hesap sorulması gerekirken forumdaki varlığını kabul etmiyoruz! ⭕️ Soykırımının ilk 10 ayında İsrail’in en büyük petrol tedarikçilerinden biri Azerbaycan oldu. Öte yandan içinde bulunduğumuz 2024 yılının ilk 9 ayında ise geçtiğimiz yılın aynı dönemine kıyasla 18%lik bir artışla petrol tedarikciliğini hız kesmeden devam ettirdi. SOCAR siyonist işgalcilerin petrol ihtiyacının karşılanmasında kritik önemi olan bir devlet şirketi. ⭕️ Azerbaycan petrolünü rezerv alanlarından çıkaran SOCAR, Türkiye’nin de ortağı olduğu Bakü Tiflis Ceyhan boru hattı ve diğer yollarla petrolü dünya pazarıyla birlikte İsrail’e de satıyor! SOCAR Türkiye’de ise diğer yatırımlarının yanısıra İzmir’de Star ve Kocaeli’de Petkim olmak üzere 2 rafineri ve 1 özel liman alanının sahibi. SOCAR BTC’deki %32 ortaklığı ile de bu hat üzerinde söz sahibi! ⭕️ İsrail’e petrol sevkiyatını artırarak düzenli sürdüren SOCAR, 7 Ekim’den bu yana süren katliamın petrol sağlayıcılarının başında geliyor! ⭕️ Siyonistlerle işbirliğini birçok boyutta sürdüren SOCAR, aynı zamanda işgal edilmiş Filistin topraklarında doğalgaz arama lisansını siyonistlerden alarak yağma ve talanın da ortağı olmuş durumda. SOCAR, BP ve NewMed ile birlikte İsrail'in en büyük hidrokarbon sahası Leviathan'ın kuzey kesiminde gaz arama lisansı alarak önümüzdeki yıllarda İsrail’le sürecek olan işbirliğini tescillemiştir! SOCAR, Hazar Sondaj gibi yan şirketleri aracılığıyla da Filistin’in açık deniz sondajında da yağma niyetinde! İşgalcilerle kolkola, stratejik enerji ortaklıklarını gerçekleştiren ve soykırımda doğrudan İsrail’in en büyük petrol tedarikçisi olan eli kanlı SOCAR’ın her alanda tecrit edilmesi gerekiyorken, CEO’su Elchin IBADOV’un 29-30 Kasım’da İstanbul’da yapılacak olan TRT WORLD FORUM’a konuşmacı olarak davet edilmesi kabul edilemez! Filistin mücadelesinin yanında olduğunu iddia eden iktidara bu iki yüzlü tutumdan vazgeçmesini ve eli kanlı SOCAR’ın CEO’sunu program listesinden çıkartılmasını istiyoruz! IBADOV’un konuşmacı konumu korunursa başta Azzam Tamimi عزام التميمي , Bruno Maçães, @fawagerges, Ghassan Salame , Mohamed Elewa Badar , Miko Peled , @omersuleiman , Raji Sourani , michael lynk , Salman Ahmed Shaikh , Ziad T. Makary , Abdurrahim Sıradağ , Achmad Rizal Purnama , Ahmet Yusuf , Dr.Heba Raouf Ezzat , @kaljunied , Michelangelo Guida olmak üzere tüm Filistin dostu ve soykırım karşıtı konuşmacıları TRT WORLD FORUM programını boykot etmeye çağırıyoruz! #TRTWorldForum2024 🔴 SOCAR FUELS ISRAEL'S GENOCIDE! SOCAR CEO SPEAKS ON TRT WORLD FORUM! SOCAR, Azerbaijan's State Oil Company and Israel's largest oil supplier, is an accomplice to Israel's crimes! While SOCAR openly continues its energy partnerships and oil shipments with Israel, its CEO, Elchin IBADOV, has been invited as a speaker to the TRT World Forum in Istanbul on November 29-30! We reject SOCAR’s presence at the forum, as this blood-stained company must be isolated and held accountable! - In the first 10 months of the genocide, Azerbaijan became the Israel's largest oil supplier. Meanwhile, in the first 9 months of 2024, SOCAR continued its oil supply with an 18% increase compared to the same period last year. - SOCAR, sells the oil to Israel through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and other routes, in which Turkey is also a partner! With a 32% stake in the BTC pipeline, SOCAR holds significant influence over this route. - SOCAR is also a partner of the Zionists in the pillage of the occupied Palestinian territories. Together with BP and NewMed, SOCAR secured a gas exploration license in the northern part of Israel’s largest hydrocarbon field, Leviathan, cementing its future cooperation with Israel. Through its subsidiaries like Caspian Drilling, SOCAR also has intentions of looting Palestine’s offshore resources! SOCAR, the largest oil supplier of the Israeli genocide, must be isolated in every area. It is unacceptable that its CEO, Elchin IBADOV, has been invited as a speaker to the TRT World Forum in Istanbul on November 29-30! We call on the government, which claims to stand with the Palestinian struggle, to abandon this hypocritical stance and remove CEO of SOCAR from the program list! If Elchin IBADOV’s position as a speaker is maintained, we call on all Palestine supporters and genocide opponents, including Azzam Tamimi عزام التميمي, Bruno Maçães, @fawagerges, Ghassan Salame, Mohamed Elewa Badar, Miko Peled, @omersuleiman, Raji Sourani, michael lynk, Salman Ahmed Shaikh, Ziad T. Makary, Abdurrahim Sıradağ, Achmad Rizal Purnama, Ahmet Yusuf, Dr.Heba Raouf Ezzat, @kaljunied, , and others, to boycott the TRT World Forum! 🔴 تقوم شركة SOCAR بتزويد "إسرائيل الإبادة الجماعية" بالوقود! الرئيس التنفيذي لـ SOCAR يتحدث في برنامج TRT FORUM! تعد شركة النفط الحكومية لجمهورية أذربيجان SOCAR من أكبر موردي النفط لـ "إسرائيل"، وهي شريكة في الجرائم من خلال صادراتها. وبينما تواصل SOCAR بشكل علني شراكاتها في مجال الطاقة مع "إسرائيل" وشحنات النفط، تم دعوة رئيسها التنفيذي إلتشين إبراهيموف (Elchin IBADOV) للتحدث في منتدى TRT الذي سيعقد في إسطنبول يومي 29-30 نوفمبر! إن قبول وجود شركة SOCAR الملطخة أيديها بالدماء في هذا المنتدى بدلاً من فرض العزلة عليها ومحاسبتها أمر غير مقبول! · في الأشهر العشرة الأولى من الإبادة الجماعية، كانت أذربيجان من أكبر موردي النفط لـ "إسرائيل". وفي الأشهر التسعة الأولى من عام 2024، استمرت أذربيجان في تعزيز دورها كمورد رئيسي للنفط لـ "إسرائيل"، بزيادة قدرها 18% مقارنة بنفس الفترة من العام الماضي. تعد شركة SOCAR شركة حكومية ذات أهمية حاسمة في تلبية احتياجات النفط للاحتلال الصهيوني. · تقوم شركة SOCAR باستخراج النفط الأذربيجاني من مناطق الاحتياطي وبيعه للأسواق العالمية، بما في ذلك "إسرائيل". يتم ذلك من خلال خط أنابيب باكو-تبليسي-جيهان (BTC)، الذي تشترك فيه تركيا، ومن خلال طرق أخرى. تمتلك SOCAR أيضًا استثمارات واسعة في تركيا، بما في ذلك مصفاتين في إزمير (Star) وكوجالي (Petkim)، إضافة إلى ميناء خاص. كما تمتلك SOCAR حصة تبلغ 32% في خط أنابيب BTC، مما يمنحها نفوذاً على مسار هذا الخط. · منذ 7 أكتوبر، ظلت SOCAR واحدة من أبرز موردي النفط للإبادة الجماعية المستمرة. · تواصل SOCAR تعاونها مع الصهاينة في عدة مجالات، بما في ذلك منح تراخيص التنقيب عن الغاز في الأراضي الفلسطينية المحتلة. بالشراكة مع BP وNewMed، حصلت SOCAR على ترخيص للتنقيب في الجزء الشمالي من حقل "ليفياثان"، أكبر حقول الهيدروكربون في "إسرائيل"، مما يرسخ شراكتها مع الاحتلال في السنوات المقبلة. كما تسعى من خلال شركاتها الفرعية مثل "حفر قزوين" إلى استغلال موارد فلسطين في التنقيب البحري. · رغم كونها أكبر مورد للنفط لـ "إسرائيل" وشريكة في الإبادة، يتم دعوة SOCAR إلى منتديات عالمية. إن دعوة رئيسها التنفيذي للتحدث في منتدى TRT في إسطنبول بدلاً من محاسبتها وعزلها غير مقبولة على الإطلاق! نطالب الحكومة، التي تدّعي الوقوف بجانب القضية الفلسطينية، بوقف هذا النفاق وإزالة اسم رئيس شركة SOCAR من قائمة المتحدثين في المنتدى! إذا استمرت دعوة إلتشين إبراهيموف (IBADOV) كمتحدث، فإننا ندعو جميع المتحدثين المناصرين لفلسطين والمعارضين للإبادة، مثل: إلى مقاطعة برنامج TRT FORUM!
1:31

🔴SOYKIRIMCI İSRAİL’İN YAKITINI SOCAR SAĞLIYOR! SOCAR’IN CEO’SU TRT WORLD FORUM PROGRAMINDA KONUŞUYOR! 🔴 SOCAR FUELS ISRAEL'S GENOCIDE! SOCAR CEO SPEAKS ON TRT WORLD FORUM! 🔴 تقوم شركة SOCAR بتزويد "إسرائيل الإبادة الجماعية" بالوقود! الرئيس التنفيذي لـ SOCAR يتحدث في برنامج TRT FORUM! #TRTWorldForum2024 İsrail’in en büyük petrol tedarikçisi Azerbaycan Cumhuriyeti Devlet Petrol Şirketi SOCAR, İsrail’e yapılan ihracatta suç ortağıdır! SOCAR, İsrail’le enerji ortaklıklarını, petrol sevkiyatını alenen sürdürürken, CEO’su Elchin IBADOV 29-30 Kasım’da İstanbul’da yapılacak olan TRT WORLD FORUM’a konuşmacı olarak davet edildi! Eli kanlı SOCAR’ın tecrit edilmesi ve hesap sorulması gerekirken forumdaki varlığını kabul etmiyoruz! ⭕️ Soykırımının ilk 10 ayında İsrail’in en büyük petrol tedarikçilerinden biri Azerbaycan oldu. Öte yandan içinde bulunduğumuz 2024 yılının ilk 9 ayında ise geçtiğimiz yılın aynı dönemine kıyasla 18%lik bir artışla petrol tedarikciliğini hız kesmeden devam ettirdi. SOCAR siyonist işgalcilerin petrol ihtiyacının karşılanmasında kritik önemi olan bir devlet şirketi. ⭕️ Azerbaycan petrolünü rezerv alanlarından çıkaran SOCAR, Türkiye’nin de ortağı olduğu Bakü Tiflis Ceyhan boru hattı ve diğer yollarla petrolü dünya pazarıyla birlikte İsrail’e de satıyor! SOCAR Türkiye’de ise diğer yatırımlarının yanısıra İzmir’de Star ve Kocaeli’de Petkim olmak üzere 2 rafineri ve 1 özel liman alanının sahibi. SOCAR BTC’deki %32 ortaklığı ile de bu hat üzerinde söz sahibi! ⭕️ İsrail’e petrol sevkiyatını artırarak düzenli sürdüren SOCAR, 7 Ekim’den bu yana süren katliamın petrol sağlayıcılarının başında geliyor! ⭕️ Siyonistlerle işbirliğini birçok boyutta sürdüren SOCAR, aynı zamanda işgal edilmiş Filistin topraklarında doğalgaz arama lisansını siyonistlerden alarak yağma ve talanın da ortağı olmuş durumda. SOCAR, BP ve NewMed ile birlikte İsrail'in en büyük hidrokarbon sahası Leviathan'ın kuzey kesiminde gaz arama lisansı alarak önümüzdeki yıllarda İsrail’le sürecek olan işbirliğini tescillemiştir! SOCAR, Hazar Sondaj gibi yan şirketleri aracılığıyla da Filistin’in açık deniz sondajında da yağma niyetinde! İşgalcilerle kolkola, stratejik enerji ortaklıklarını gerçekleştiren ve soykırımda doğrudan İsrail’in en büyük petrol tedarikçisi olan eli kanlı SOCAR’ın her alanda tecrit edilmesi gerekiyorken, CEO’su Elchin IBADOV’un 29-30 Kasım’da İstanbul’da yapılacak olan TRT WORLD FORUM’a konuşmacı olarak davet edilmesi kabul edilemez! Filistin mücadelesinin yanında olduğunu iddia eden iktidara bu iki yüzlü tutumdan vazgeçmesini ve eli kanlı SOCAR’ın CEO’sunu program listesinden çıkartılmasını istiyoruz! IBADOV’un konuşmacı konumu korunursa başta Azzam Tamimi عزام التميمي , Bruno Maçães, @fawagerges, Ghassan Salame , Mohamed Elewa Badar , Miko Peled , @omersuleiman , Raji Sourani , michael lynk , Salman Ahmed Shaikh , Ziad T. Makary , Abdurrahim Sıradağ , Achmad Rizal Purnama , Ahmet Yusuf , Dr.Heba Raouf Ezzat , @kaljunied , Michelangelo Guida olmak üzere tüm Filistin dostu ve soykırım karşıtı konuşmacıları TRT WORLD FORUM programını boykot etmeye çağırıyoruz! #TRTWorldForum2024 🔴 SOCAR FUELS ISRAEL'S GENOCIDE! SOCAR CEO SPEAKS ON TRT WORLD FORUM! SOCAR, Azerbaijan's State Oil Company and Israel's largest oil supplier, is an accomplice to Israel's crimes! While SOCAR openly continues its energy partnerships and oil shipments with Israel, its CEO, Elchin IBADOV, has been invited as a speaker to the TRT World Forum in Istanbul on November 29-30! We reject SOCAR’s presence at the forum, as this blood-stained company must be isolated and held accountable! - In the first 10 months of the genocide, Azerbaijan became the Israel's largest oil supplier. Meanwhile, in the first 9 months of 2024, SOCAR continued its oil supply with an 18% increase compared to the same period last year. - SOCAR, sells the oil to Israel through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and other routes, in which Turkey is also a partner! With a 32% stake in the BTC pipeline, SOCAR holds significant influence over this route. - SOCAR is also a partner of the Zionists in the pillage of the occupied Palestinian territories. Together with BP and NewMed, SOCAR secured a gas exploration license in the northern part of Israel’s largest hydrocarbon field, Leviathan, cementing its future cooperation with Israel. Through its subsidiaries like Caspian Drilling, SOCAR also has intentions of looting Palestine’s offshore resources! SOCAR, the largest oil supplier of the Israeli genocide, must be isolated in every area. It is unacceptable that its CEO, Elchin IBADOV, has been invited as a speaker to the TRT World Forum in Istanbul on November 29-30! We call on the government, which claims to stand with the Palestinian struggle, to abandon this hypocritical stance and remove CEO of SOCAR from the program list! If Elchin IBADOV’s position as a speaker is maintained, we call on all Palestine supporters and genocide opponents, including Azzam Tamimi عزام التميمي, Bruno Maçães, @fawagerges, Ghassan Salame, Mohamed Elewa Badar, Miko Peled, @omersuleiman, Raji Sourani, michael lynk, Salman Ahmed Shaikh, Ziad T. Makary, Abdurrahim Sıradağ, Achmad Rizal Purnama, Ahmet Yusuf, Dr.Heba Raouf Ezzat, @kaljunied, , and others, to boycott the TRT World Forum! 🔴 تقوم شركة SOCAR بتزويد "إسرائيل الإبادة الجماعية" بالوقود! الرئيس التنفيذي لـ SOCAR يتحدث في برنامج TRT FORUM! تعد شركة النفط الحكومية لجمهورية أذربيجان SOCAR من أكبر موردي النفط لـ "إسرائيل"، وهي شريكة في الجرائم من خلال صادراتها. وبينما تواصل SOCAR بشكل علني شراكاتها في مجال الطاقة مع "إسرائيل" وشحنات النفط، تم دعوة رئيسها التنفيذي إلتشين إبراهيموف (Elchin IBADOV) للتحدث في منتدى TRT الذي سيعقد في إسطنبول يومي 29-30 نوفمبر! إن قبول وجود شركة SOCAR الملطخة أيديها بالدماء في هذا المنتدى بدلاً من فرض العزلة عليها ومحاسبتها أمر غير مقبول! · في الأشهر العشرة الأولى من الإبادة الجماعية، كانت أذربيجان من أكبر موردي النفط لـ "إسرائيل". وفي الأشهر التسعة الأولى من عام 2024، استمرت أذربيجان في تعزيز دورها كمورد رئيسي للنفط لـ "إسرائيل"، بزيادة قدرها 18% مقارنة بنفس الفترة من العام الماضي. تعد شركة SOCAR شركة حكومية ذات أهمية حاسمة في تلبية احتياجات النفط للاحتلال الصهيوني. · تقوم شركة SOCAR باستخراج النفط الأذربيجاني من مناطق الاحتياطي وبيعه للأسواق العالمية، بما في ذلك "إسرائيل". يتم ذلك من خلال خط أنابيب باكو-تبليسي-جيهان (BTC)، الذي تشترك فيه تركيا، ومن خلال طرق أخرى. تمتلك SOCAR أيضًا استثمارات واسعة في تركيا، بما في ذلك مصفاتين في إزمير (Star) وكوجالي (Petkim)، إضافة إلى ميناء خاص. كما تمتلك SOCAR حصة تبلغ 32% في خط أنابيب BTC، مما يمنحها نفوذاً على مسار هذا الخط. · منذ 7 أكتوبر، ظلت SOCAR واحدة من أبرز موردي النفط للإبادة الجماعية المستمرة. · تواصل SOCAR تعاونها مع الصهاينة في عدة مجالات، بما في ذلك منح تراخيص التنقيب عن الغاز في الأراضي الفلسطينية المحتلة. بالشراكة مع BP وNewMed، حصلت SOCAR على ترخيص للتنقيب في الجزء الشمالي من حقل "ليفياثان"، أكبر حقول الهيدروكربون في "إسرائيل"، مما يرسخ شراكتها مع الاحتلال في السنوات المقبلة. كما تسعى من خلال شركاتها الفرعية مثل "حفر قزوين" إلى استغلال موارد فلسطين في التنقيب البحري. · رغم كونها أكبر مورد للنفط لـ "إسرائيل" وشريكة في الإبادة، يتم دعوة SOCAR إلى منتديات عالمية. إن دعوة رئيسها التنفيذي للتحدث في منتدى TRT في إسطنبول بدلاً من محاسبتها وعزلها غير مقبولة على الإطلاق! نطالب الحكومة، التي تدّعي الوقوف بجانب القضية الفلسطينية، بوقف هذا النفاق وإزالة اسم رئيس شركة SOCAR من قائمة المتحدثين في المنتدى! إذا استمرت دعوة إلتشين إبراهيموف (IBADOV) كمتحدث، فإننا ندعو جميع المتحدثين المناصرين لفلسطين والمعارضين للإبادة، مثل: إلى مقاطعة برنامج TRT FORUM!

Direniş Çadırı

61,713 次观看 • 1 年前

The Iran conflict is a reminder that we must accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, say many in the media. Iran’s disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz means the world is now losing 13 million barrels per day of oil and refined products, which is over 10% of global consumption. After QatarEnergy, the world’s largest LNG exporter, declared force majeure on all exports after Iranian drone strikes, Asian buyers scrambled to redirect orders to Australia. But then, last week, a cyclone slammed into Australia’s LNG corridor, forcing shutdowns at three of the country’s largest facilities. David Wallace-Wells in the New York Times noted, “No one has ever started a war over solar panels.” But nobody goes to war over solar panels for the same reason nobody goes to war over candles: they cannot power the things that economies, civilizations, and wars run on. A gallon of jet fuel contains 34 kilowatt-hours of energy in a package weighing six pounds. A lithium-ion battery storing the same energy weighs 250 pounds. That density gap is why every military on earth runs on liquid hydrocarbons, why every container ship crossing the Pacific burns bunker fuel, why every combine harvester in Iowa runs on diesel, and why every 747 landing at Heathrow runs on kerosene. The fact that nobody wages war over solar panels is evidence of their limitations, not superiority. Many respond by claiming that fossil fuels persist because of government subsidies and political favoritism. The IMF says global fossil fuel subsidies total $7 trillion. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres cited that number when he called for eliminating “fossil fuel subsidies that distort markets and lock us into the past.” But the $7 trillion figure is almost entirely fictional. The IMF’s own data show that only 18% of its subsidy estimate reflects actual government spending or undercharging for supply costs. The remaining 82% consists of what the IMF calls “implicit subsidies,” a theoretical construct that assigns a dollar value to the environmental and social costs of burning fossil fuels and then treats the failure to tax those costs as a subsidy. By that logic, any product whose price does not reflect the full externalized cost of its production is “subsidized.” The real problem is that the world overinvested in green energy and underinvested in oil and gas. Globally, the IEA’s World Energy Investment 2025 report documented that $2.2 trillion flowed to clean energy in 2025, exactly double the $1.1 trillion invested in oil, natural gas, and coal combined. In the U.S., federal tax expenditures for green energy end users in fiscal year 2025 alone totaled $57.9 billion. That figure exceeds the aggregate of all federal fossil fuel tax expenditures over the 31-year period from 1994 to 2025, totaling $50.8 billion. The oil and gas extraction sector generated $1.8 trillion in total U.S. revenues in 2024, meaning that the $3 billion in actual government support represents 0.17% of industry revenue, an economic rounding error. Renewable energy hardware is overwhelmingly manufactured in China, creating a supply chain dependency that is more precarious than the oil dependency it purports to replace. China’s share of global polysilicon, ingot, and wafer production has reached approximately 95%. China controls 91% of rare earth processing and 94% of the permanent magnet production essential for wind turbines. China dominates more than 75% of global solar cell and module manufacturing and is projected to control nearly 60% of all critical mineral refining by 2030. In 2025, Beijing weaponized this dominance, and bismuth prices surgednearly 500% overnight. Had the world spent the past decade building the oil, gas, LNG, pipeline, and fertilizer infrastructure that engineers designed and companies proposed, the Hormuz crisis would still be a serious geopolitical event, but it would not threaten to cause a recession. The Atlantic Coast Pipeline, a 600-mile natural gas line from West Virginia to North Carolina, saw its cost double from $4.5 billion to $8 billion during years of environmental litigation before Duke Energy and Dominion Energy cancelled it in July 2020. The Constitution Pipeline from Pennsylvania to New York died the same year. The PennEast Pipeline won its case at the United States Supreme Court in 2021 and still could not get built because New Jersey refused to issue state permits. In Canada, TransCanada abandoned the $15.7 billion Energy East pipeline in 2017 after the National Energy Board required an unprecedented review of upstream and downstream emissions... Please subscribe now to support Public's award-winning investigative journalism, watch the full video, and read the rest of the article!
4:44

The Iran conflict is a reminder that we must accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, say many in the media. Iran’s disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz means the world is now losing 13 million barrels per day of oil and refined products, which is over 10% of global consumption. After QatarEnergy, the world’s largest LNG exporter, declared force majeure on all exports after Iranian drone strikes, Asian buyers scrambled to redirect orders to Australia. But then, last week, a cyclone slammed into Australia’s LNG corridor, forcing shutdowns at three of the country’s largest facilities. David Wallace-Wells in the New York Times noted, “No one has ever started a war over solar panels.” But nobody goes to war over solar panels for the same reason nobody goes to war over candles: they cannot power the things that economies, civilizations, and wars run on. A gallon of jet fuel contains 34 kilowatt-hours of energy in a package weighing six pounds. A lithium-ion battery storing the same energy weighs 250 pounds. That density gap is why every military on earth runs on liquid hydrocarbons, why every container ship crossing the Pacific burns bunker fuel, why every combine harvester in Iowa runs on diesel, and why every 747 landing at Heathrow runs on kerosene. The fact that nobody wages war over solar panels is evidence of their limitations, not superiority. Many respond by claiming that fossil fuels persist because of government subsidies and political favoritism. The IMF says global fossil fuel subsidies total $7 trillion. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres cited that number when he called for eliminating “fossil fuel subsidies that distort markets and lock us into the past.” But the $7 trillion figure is almost entirely fictional. The IMF’s own data show that only 18% of its subsidy estimate reflects actual government spending or undercharging for supply costs. The remaining 82% consists of what the IMF calls “implicit subsidies,” a theoretical construct that assigns a dollar value to the environmental and social costs of burning fossil fuels and then treats the failure to tax those costs as a subsidy. By that logic, any product whose price does not reflect the full externalized cost of its production is “subsidized.” The real problem is that the world overinvested in green energy and underinvested in oil and gas. Globally, the IEA’s World Energy Investment 2025 report documented that $2.2 trillion flowed to clean energy in 2025, exactly double the $1.1 trillion invested in oil, natural gas, and coal combined. In the U.S., federal tax expenditures for green energy end users in fiscal year 2025 alone totaled $57.9 billion. That figure exceeds the aggregate of all federal fossil fuel tax expenditures over the 31-year period from 1994 to 2025, totaling $50.8 billion. The oil and gas extraction sector generated $1.8 trillion in total U.S. revenues in 2024, meaning that the $3 billion in actual government support represents 0.17% of industry revenue, an economic rounding error. Renewable energy hardware is overwhelmingly manufactured in China, creating a supply chain dependency that is more precarious than the oil dependency it purports to replace. China’s share of global polysilicon, ingot, and wafer production has reached approximately 95%. China controls 91% of rare earth processing and 94% of the permanent magnet production essential for wind turbines. China dominates more than 75% of global solar cell and module manufacturing and is projected to control nearly 60% of all critical mineral refining by 2030. In 2025, Beijing weaponized this dominance, and bismuth prices surgednearly 500% overnight. Had the world spent the past decade building the oil, gas, LNG, pipeline, and fertilizer infrastructure that engineers designed and companies proposed, the Hormuz crisis would still be a serious geopolitical event, but it would not threaten to cause a recession. The Atlantic Coast Pipeline, a 600-mile natural gas line from West Virginia to North Carolina, saw its cost double from $4.5 billion to $8 billion during years of environmental litigation before Duke Energy and Dominion Energy cancelled it in July 2020. The Constitution Pipeline from Pennsylvania to New York died the same year. The PennEast Pipeline won its case at the United States Supreme Court in 2021 and still could not get built because New Jersey refused to issue state permits. In Canada, TransCanada abandoned the $15.7 billion Energy East pipeline in 2017 after the National Energy Board required an unprecedented review of upstream and downstream emissions... Please subscribe now to support Public's award-winning investigative journalism, watch the full video, and read the rest of the article!

Michael Shellenberger

58,380 次观看 • 4 个月前

Cyberpunk City: Stepping Boldly Into a New Era At Cyberpunk City, innovation and ambition have always driven us. We’ve built more than just a game—we’ve created an entire ecosystem where blockchain technology meets immersive experiences. From our token-powered economy to NFT-backed in-game assets, we’ve consistently pushed boundaries. Along the way, we’ve achieved significant milestones, expanded our community, and shown resilience in the ever-changing world of Web3. Now, we’re excited to announce a pivotal new chapter for Cyberpunk City as we prepare to migrate to a new blockchain that aligns perfectly with our long-term goals. This move represents not just a transition, but an opportunity to build on our successes and scale the project further. With exciting updates on the horizon, we’re confident this journey will unlock new opportunities for our community and propel Cyberpunk City to new heights. Reflecting on Our Achievements Before diving into the future, we want to acknowledge the milestones and achievements that have shaped Cyberpunk City: Strong Token Economy: We’ve built a thriving token-based ecosystem and ensured real utility for in-game assets through NFT integration. Commitment to Decentralization: With the launch of @CyberpunkStake, we showed our dedication to decentralization and rewarded our community with substantial token distributions. Impressive NFT Volume: Cyberpunk City is currently ranked 10th in all-time volume among NFT projects, a testament to the trust and activity within our community. Price Action and Market Strength: Our token has demonstrated consistent strength in price action, reflecting confidence in our vision and project execution. Meaningful Partnerships and Community Events: We’ve secured valuable partnerships and organized gaming events that brought our community together. Recognition at xDay: Cyberpunk City has proudly participated in two xDay events, earning two awards that highlight the project’s innovation and impact. These achievements reflect the hard work of our team, the enthusiasm of our supporters, and our shared vision for building something remarkable. As we prepare for the next chapter, we’ll continue to build on these successes, creating more opportunities and experiences for everyone involved. What Does This Mean for Our Community? This transition is more than just a technical shift—it’s a chance to elevate the Cyberpunk City ecosystem, refine our offerings, and tap into larger, more vibrant ecosystems. Our mission is to ensure that Cyberpunk City thrives in an ecosystem that can support our ambitions. Here are the key updates that will take place during this migration: 1. Token Ticker Change Earlier, our community voted through a DAO process, selecting $CYB as the new token ticker. As part of this transition, $CYBER holders will be able to bridge their tokens to $CYB on the new chain. 2. Asset Bridging All community-owned NFTs and tokens will be bridgeable to the new chain. Our Cyberpunk City dApp will facilitate these transactions, ensuring the process is as smooth as possible. Some assets will receive enhancements, but rest assured, all updates will be completed within a reasonable timeframe. 3. xExchange Trading Our token will continue to be traded on xExchange throughout the migration process, maintaining liquidity and flexibility. You will also have the option to bridge your tokens to the new blockchain at your convenience. 4. Timeline and Chain Announcement The official chain announcement will be made on November 8, 2024, and the migration will be completed by year-end. The new blockchain aligns with our vision of expanding Cyberpunk City into a vast, more diverse ecosystem, with a significantly larger user base and even greater opportunities for growth. 5. Whitepaper V2 We’ve received many inquiries about our new whitepaper, and we’re excited to share that Whitepaper V2 will be part of a coordinated series of announcements. Due to uncertainties over the past 10 months, we postponed its release to ensure it aligns with the new direction of the project. Now, with a clear path ahead, we are working on a whitepaper that reflects new features and insights gained over three years of development. 6. Website Redesign Alongside the chain announcement, we’re launching a completely revamped website to elevate the Cyberpunk City experience. With a cutting-edge design that mirrors the sophistication and quality of our game, the new site will be more dynamic, visually immersive, and crafted to engage a growing community of gamers. This update will also roll out with Whitepaper V2, providing a clear and comprehensive vision of our roadmap and future plans. The redesigned website reflects our commitment to delivering a premium experience and attracting a larger audience. 7. Marketing Strategy Our decision to keep the blockchain confidential for now is part of a carefully crafted marketing strategy. We aim to reach the largest audience possible with this announcement and are preparing the necessary content and campaigns to ensure a smooth and exciting reveal. 8. Business Development and Partnerships Our business development team is actively working to establish new partnerships on the new blockchain. Once the transition becomes public, we’ll be announcing multiple collaborations to accelerate growth and expansion in our new ecosystem. A New Chapter for Cyberpunk City This transition is a bold and necessary step toward scaling Cyberpunk City into a truly global ecosystem. It’s not just a technical shift—it’s a new beginning, filled with opportunities to build on our past successes and embrace new challenges. We’re confident that this move will unlock new possibilities, helping us reach more players, forge deeper partnerships, and create a thriving community. We’re excited to share this journey with you and look forward to what lies ahead. Stay tuned for updates and get ready to experience the next evolution of Cyberpunk City! Thank you for your support—we’re just getting started!
1:00

Cyberpunk City: Stepping Boldly Into a New Era At Cyberpunk City, innovation and ambition have always driven us. We’ve built more than just a game—we’ve created an entire ecosystem where blockchain technology meets immersive experiences. From our token-powered economy to NFT-backed in-game assets, we’ve consistently pushed boundaries. Along the way, we’ve achieved significant milestones, expanded our community, and shown resilience in the ever-changing world of Web3. Now, we’re excited to announce a pivotal new chapter for Cyberpunk City as we prepare to migrate to a new blockchain that aligns perfectly with our long-term goals. This move represents not just a transition, but an opportunity to build on our successes and scale the project further. With exciting updates on the horizon, we’re confident this journey will unlock new opportunities for our community and propel Cyberpunk City to new heights. Reflecting on Our Achievements Before diving into the future, we want to acknowledge the milestones and achievements that have shaped Cyberpunk City: Strong Token Economy: We’ve built a thriving token-based ecosystem and ensured real utility for in-game assets through NFT integration. Commitment to Decentralization: With the launch of @CyberpunkStake, we showed our dedication to decentralization and rewarded our community with substantial token distributions. Impressive NFT Volume: Cyberpunk City is currently ranked 10th in all-time volume among NFT projects, a testament to the trust and activity within our community. Price Action and Market Strength: Our token has demonstrated consistent strength in price action, reflecting confidence in our vision and project execution. Meaningful Partnerships and Community Events: We’ve secured valuable partnerships and organized gaming events that brought our community together. Recognition at xDay: Cyberpunk City has proudly participated in two xDay events, earning two awards that highlight the project’s innovation and impact. These achievements reflect the hard work of our team, the enthusiasm of our supporters, and our shared vision for building something remarkable. As we prepare for the next chapter, we’ll continue to build on these successes, creating more opportunities and experiences for everyone involved. What Does This Mean for Our Community? This transition is more than just a technical shift—it’s a chance to elevate the Cyberpunk City ecosystem, refine our offerings, and tap into larger, more vibrant ecosystems. Our mission is to ensure that Cyberpunk City thrives in an ecosystem that can support our ambitions. Here are the key updates that will take place during this migration: 1. Token Ticker Change Earlier, our community voted through a DAO process, selecting $CYB as the new token ticker. As part of this transition, $CYBER holders will be able to bridge their tokens to $CYB on the new chain. 2. Asset Bridging All community-owned NFTs and tokens will be bridgeable to the new chain. Our Cyberpunk City dApp will facilitate these transactions, ensuring the process is as smooth as possible. Some assets will receive enhancements, but rest assured, all updates will be completed within a reasonable timeframe. 3. xExchange Trading Our token will continue to be traded on xExchange throughout the migration process, maintaining liquidity and flexibility. You will also have the option to bridge your tokens to the new blockchain at your convenience. 4. Timeline and Chain Announcement The official chain announcement will be made on November 8, 2024, and the migration will be completed by year-end. The new blockchain aligns with our vision of expanding Cyberpunk City into a vast, more diverse ecosystem, with a significantly larger user base and even greater opportunities for growth. 5. Whitepaper V2 We’ve received many inquiries about our new whitepaper, and we’re excited to share that Whitepaper V2 will be part of a coordinated series of announcements. Due to uncertainties over the past 10 months, we postponed its release to ensure it aligns with the new direction of the project. Now, with a clear path ahead, we are working on a whitepaper that reflects new features and insights gained over three years of development. 6. Website Redesign Alongside the chain announcement, we’re launching a completely revamped website to elevate the Cyberpunk City experience. With a cutting-edge design that mirrors the sophistication and quality of our game, the new site will be more dynamic, visually immersive, and crafted to engage a growing community of gamers. This update will also roll out with Whitepaper V2, providing a clear and comprehensive vision of our roadmap and future plans. The redesigned website reflects our commitment to delivering a premium experience and attracting a larger audience. 7. Marketing Strategy Our decision to keep the blockchain confidential for now is part of a carefully crafted marketing strategy. We aim to reach the largest audience possible with this announcement and are preparing the necessary content and campaigns to ensure a smooth and exciting reveal. 8. Business Development and Partnerships Our business development team is actively working to establish new partnerships on the new blockchain. Once the transition becomes public, we’ll be announcing multiple collaborations to accelerate growth and expansion in our new ecosystem. A New Chapter for Cyberpunk City This transition is a bold and necessary step toward scaling Cyberpunk City into a truly global ecosystem. It’s not just a technical shift—it’s a new beginning, filled with opportunities to build on our past successes and embrace new challenges. We’re confident that this move will unlock new possibilities, helping us reach more players, forge deeper partnerships, and create a thriving community. We’re excited to share this journey with you and look forward to what lies ahead. Stay tuned for updates and get ready to experience the next evolution of Cyberpunk City! Thank you for your support—we’re just getting started!

Cyberpunk City

30,601 次观看 • 1 年前

Public Health Agency of Canada releases first report on psychological manipulation of citizens🩺🇨🇦 Under Chief Medical Officer Theresa Tam, the Public Health Agency of Canada has launched a behavioural science office and released a report on persuasion tactics for compliance, raising ethical concerns about transparency in how taxpayer money is used to influence public behaviour. Canada’s public health agency (Health Canada and PHAC) has established a behavioural science office (BeSciO) and has recently released its first report detailing its persuasion of public compliance under the guidance of Chief Medical Officer of Canada, Theresa Tam (Canada's CPHO). Tam, who also serves on various World Health Organization committees, has been heavily scrutinized for this conflict of interest in recent years. The report starts with a land acknowledgment and outlines the Public Health Agency of Canada’s progress in establishing BeSciO from April 2021 to March 2023. Launched in Spring 2021, BeSciO emphasizes the importance of human behaviour in public health and supported the government's pandemic response with critical advice and evidence. The report defines behavioural science (BeSci) as a multidisciplinary field that studies human behaviour and decision-making by integrating psychology, neuroscience, and social sciences. It emphasizes the importance of understanding psychological, sociocultural, and systemic factors that influence decision-making, enabling practitioners to create effective solutions that impact behaviour-based outcomes. It’s noted in the report that BeSciO has “joined forces with the Office of the Chief Public Health Officer, the World Health Organization, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Behavioural Insights Team, to name only a few.” As such, it’s important for the public to be prepared for the “crazy ideas” coming down the pike, as stated by WHO director-general Tedros Ghebreyesus (Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus) during a strategic roundtable on behavioural science for better health in 2022. Tam confirms collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO), utilizing their behavioural insights tool to monitor compliance with public health measures. The new unit says it is “indebted to the incredible staff of BeSciO, as well as PHAC’s Data, Surveillance and Foresight Branch (formerly Corporate Data and Surveillance Branch).” The report is signed by Heather Devine (Heather Devine 🇨🇦) and Dhurata Ikonomi (Dhurata Ikonomi 🇨🇦), but the rest of the behavioural science team remains unclear. Notably, while partner Impact Canada lists its behavioural insight team, neither Devine nor Ikonomi are included, suggesting the government employs behavioural scientists in various, less transparent roles beyond public health. BeSciO was formed after a “needs assessment” was conducted in April 2021, and then Minister of Health Patty Hajdu, who is said to have “recognized the critical role of human behaviour in public health.” “Creating BeSciO introduced an innovation and experimentation function within the Branch to support PHAC's revitalization as a world-leading, data-driven public health organization,” it says. It would appear that one of their first tasks was the May 2021 memo titled “Testing Behaviourally-Informed Messaging In Response To Severe Adverse Events Following Immunization” where messaging and communication around COVID-19 vaccine injuries needed to be framed in a way that did not compromise the government's safe and effective marketing slogan. Faced with mounting distrust in public health after its grotesque failures in pandemic handling and response, in its first year, BeSciO aimed to address “priority areas such as vaccine confidence, public health measures, combatting mis/disinformation, borders measures, and public health communications to inform key pandemic response activities. In its second year, BeSciO expanded its focus to new areas that emerged as critical to PHAC’s mandate, including climate change and infectious disease, mental health, and antimicrobial resistance.” The new office highlights the growing global use of behavioural science to improve health outcomes by addressing human decision-making tendencies. It aims to predict responses to policies, identify barriers to health-promoting behaviours, design aligned programs, and evaluate interventions for better outcomes. In its first two years, it completed 11 research projects, responded to over 50 advice requests, recruited 10 fellows, conducted 10 training sessions, expanded its community of practice by 308 members, and published 63 newsletters on topics including COVID-19, public trust, mental health, and climate change. It further outlines how it came after the WHO developed the behavioural insights tool – the organization that says “One of the most critical elements of reducing virus transmission is public behaviour.” BeSciO plans to use its research to gauge Canadians' intentions regarding public health measures, studying misinformation and public trust in PHAC. Future project areas include antimicrobial stewardship, childhood immunizations, mask-wearing, mental health, and climate change. They will apply the IMPActS model to shape perceptions and behaviours, which involves identifying policy challenges, mapping targeted changes, prototyping solutions, testing effectiveness, and scaling successful strategies. Notably, their efforts include supporting routine childhood immunization programs during the pandemic through collaboration with the Vaccine Behaviour and Confidence Team of PHAC. The use of behavioural science to nudge compliance often amounts to coercion, occurring subliminally without the public's awareness, undermining personal autonomy and trust. It raises ethical concerns about experimenting on individuals without consent and emphasizes the need for transparency from the agency about these techniques and their impact on public behaviour, particularly given the millions in taxpayer funding involved. By Tamara Ugolini 🇨🇦 |
13:18

Public Health Agency of Canada releases first report on psychological manipulation of citizens🩺🇨🇦 Under Chief Medical Officer Theresa Tam, the Public Health Agency of Canada has launched a behavioural science office and released a report on persuasion tactics for compliance, raising ethical concerns about transparency in how taxpayer money is used to influence public behaviour. Canada’s public health agency (Health Canada and PHAC) has established a behavioural science office (BeSciO) and has recently released its first report detailing its persuasion of public compliance under the guidance of Chief Medical Officer of Canada, Theresa Tam (Canada's CPHO). Tam, who also serves on various World Health Organization committees, has been heavily scrutinized for this conflict of interest in recent years. The report starts with a land acknowledgment and outlines the Public Health Agency of Canada’s progress in establishing BeSciO from April 2021 to March 2023. Launched in Spring 2021, BeSciO emphasizes the importance of human behaviour in public health and supported the government's pandemic response with critical advice and evidence. The report defines behavioural science (BeSci) as a multidisciplinary field that studies human behaviour and decision-making by integrating psychology, neuroscience, and social sciences. It emphasizes the importance of understanding psychological, sociocultural, and systemic factors that influence decision-making, enabling practitioners to create effective solutions that impact behaviour-based outcomes. It’s noted in the report that BeSciO has “joined forces with the Office of the Chief Public Health Officer, the World Health Organization, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Behavioural Insights Team, to name only a few.” As such, it’s important for the public to be prepared for the “crazy ideas” coming down the pike, as stated by WHO director-general Tedros Ghebreyesus (Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus) during a strategic roundtable on behavioural science for better health in 2022. Tam confirms collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO), utilizing their behavioural insights tool to monitor compliance with public health measures. The new unit says it is “indebted to the incredible staff of BeSciO, as well as PHAC’s Data, Surveillance and Foresight Branch (formerly Corporate Data and Surveillance Branch).” The report is signed by Heather Devine (Heather Devine 🇨🇦) and Dhurata Ikonomi (Dhurata Ikonomi 🇨🇦), but the rest of the behavioural science team remains unclear. Notably, while partner Impact Canada lists its behavioural insight team, neither Devine nor Ikonomi are included, suggesting the government employs behavioural scientists in various, less transparent roles beyond public health. BeSciO was formed after a “needs assessment” was conducted in April 2021, and then Minister of Health Patty Hajdu, who is said to have “recognized the critical role of human behaviour in public health.” “Creating BeSciO introduced an innovation and experimentation function within the Branch to support PHAC's revitalization as a world-leading, data-driven public health organization,” it says. It would appear that one of their first tasks was the May 2021 memo titled “Testing Behaviourally-Informed Messaging In Response To Severe Adverse Events Following Immunization” where messaging and communication around COVID-19 vaccine injuries needed to be framed in a way that did not compromise the government's safe and effective marketing slogan. Faced with mounting distrust in public health after its grotesque failures in pandemic handling and response, in its first year, BeSciO aimed to address “priority areas such as vaccine confidence, public health measures, combatting mis/disinformation, borders measures, and public health communications to inform key pandemic response activities. In its second year, BeSciO expanded its focus to new areas that emerged as critical to PHAC’s mandate, including climate change and infectious disease, mental health, and antimicrobial resistance.” The new office highlights the growing global use of behavioural science to improve health outcomes by addressing human decision-making tendencies. It aims to predict responses to policies, identify barriers to health-promoting behaviours, design aligned programs, and evaluate interventions for better outcomes. In its first two years, it completed 11 research projects, responded to over 50 advice requests, recruited 10 fellows, conducted 10 training sessions, expanded its community of practice by 308 members, and published 63 newsletters on topics including COVID-19, public trust, mental health, and climate change. It further outlines how it came after the WHO developed the behavioural insights tool – the organization that says “One of the most critical elements of reducing virus transmission is public behaviour.” BeSciO plans to use its research to gauge Canadians' intentions regarding public health measures, studying misinformation and public trust in PHAC. Future project areas include antimicrobial stewardship, childhood immunizations, mask-wearing, mental health, and climate change. They will apply the IMPActS model to shape perceptions and behaviours, which involves identifying policy challenges, mapping targeted changes, prototyping solutions, testing effectiveness, and scaling successful strategies. Notably, their efforts include supporting routine childhood immunization programs during the pandemic through collaboration with the Vaccine Behaviour and Confidence Team of PHAC. The use of behavioural science to nudge compliance often amounts to coercion, occurring subliminally without the public's awareness, undermining personal autonomy and trust. It raises ethical concerns about experimenting on individuals without consent and emphasizes the need for transparency from the agency about these techniques and their impact on public behaviour, particularly given the millions in taxpayer funding involved. By Tamara Ugolini 🇨🇦 |

Rebel News

82,091 次观看 • 1 年前

In October 2025, the Prime Minister undertook a series of national and international engagements focused on infrastructure development, rural transformation, governance reform, and diplomatic cooperation. Here is a brief recap of the past month: 𝙊𝙣 𝙐𝙧𝙗𝙖𝙣 𝘿𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙡𝙤𝙥𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙁𝙤𝙧𝙚𝙞𝙜𝙣 𝘿𝙞𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙩 𝙄𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 A defining highlight of the month was the laying of the foundation stone for the urea fertilizer plant, a landmark project developed through a partnership between Ethiopian Investment Holdings and the Dangote Group. With an annual production capacity of three million tons, the plant will utilize natural gas from the Calub gas fields, transported through a 108-kilometer pipeline. This project is a cornerstone of Ethiopia’s strategy to achieve fertilizer self-sufficiency and enhance agricultural productivity. In the Somali Region, the Prime Minister also inaugurated the Gode Oil Refinery, developed by Golden Concord Group Limited (GCL). The refinery, designed to process 3.5 million tons of crude oil and condensate per year from the Hilala oil field, represents a significant step in Ethiopia’s path toward energy independence. Complementing these milestones, the Prime Minister inaugurated the first phase of the Ogaden Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) Project in Calub. The facility, with an annual production capacity of 111 million litres and the ability to generate 1,000 megawatts of energy, strengthens Ethiopia’s industrial base while contributing critical inputs to fertilizer production and energy generation. During his visit to Jigjiga in the Somali Region, the Prime Minister observed the city’s rapid transformation since his last visit in January 2025. Thousands of new housing units are under construction, and corridor development projects are visibly enhancing urban well-being. He lauded the Dine for Generations Project, nearing completion in the Somali Region, for unlocking new opportunities in tourism and stimulating regional economic growth. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, accompanied by members of the Prosperity Party Executive Committee, visited the corridor development project extending from Sar Bet to German Square, encompassing the Garment Factory and the Furi area. Spanning 589 hectares, it is the second-largest urban corridor after Kazanchis. The project features 16.5 kilometers of asphalt roads, 33 kilometers of pedestrian walkways, plazas, sports and recreation facilities, riverbank development, and over 1,100 commercial shops. The initiative embodies Ethiopia’s broader vision of creating modern, livable, and economically vibrant cities. 𝙊𝙣 𝙍𝙪𝙧𝙖𝙡 𝙏𝙧𝙖𝙣𝙨𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝘼𝙜𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙪𝙡𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙖𝙡 𝙈𝙤𝙙𝙚𝙧𝙣𝙞𝙯𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 Advancing his government’s rural development agenda, the Prime Minister presided over the handover of model rural villages constructed through the Rainy Season Voluntary Scheme in the Halaba, Kembatta, Hadiya, and Silte zones. Each home in these Rural Corridor Villages is equipped with solar power, biogas systems, sanitation facilities, and animal shelters, significantly improving hygiene, comfort, and productivity for rural families. These model villages mark a new chapter in Ethiopia’s mission to raise rural living standards and promote sustainable livelihoods. The Prime Minister encouraged regional leaders to expand these initiatives, setting a target of 100 new houses per zone by next year. During his visit to the East Shewa Zone of the Oromia Region, the Prime Minister also reviewed the rainy season wheat harvest and launched summer wheat production activities. He assessed progress in banana, papaya, and fish farming clusters, emphasizing the growing adoption of mechanized agriculture as a major driver of productivity and self-reliance. He also inaugurated the Welmel River Irrigation Development Project in Delo-Mena Woreda, Bale Zone. Once fully operational, the project will irrigate 9,687 hectares of farmland, benefiting 20,000 farming households and enhancing drought resilience, food sovereignty, and rural employment. 𝙊𝙣 𝙀𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙤𝙢𝙞𝙘 𝙂𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙣𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙈𝙖𝙘𝙧𝙤𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙤𝙢𝙞𝙘 𝙍𝙚𝙫𝙞𝙚𝙬 At the Koysha Project site, the Prime Minister convened a strategic review session with the Council of Ministers to assess the macroeconomic performance of the first 100 days of the 2018 Ethiopian Fiscal Year. The review examined achievements, challenges, and strategic priorities, highlighting Ethiopia’s sustained economic resilience amid global uncertainty. The nation’s GDP growth rate stood at 9.2 percent for the 2017 fiscal year, underscoring the success of reforms aimed at fostering inclusive and diversified growth. 𝙊𝙣 𝙅𝙪𝙙𝙞𝙘𝙞𝙖𝙡 𝙈𝙤𝙙𝙚𝙧𝙣𝙞𝙨𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙧𝙤𝙪𝙜𝙝 𝘿𝙞𝙜𝙞𝙩𝙖𝙡 𝙏𝙧𝙖𝙣𝙨𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 Building on the success of the Digital 2025 Strategy, the Prime Minister announced the forthcoming Digital 2030 Strategy, focused on advancing automation and improving public service delivery. He commended the Federal Supreme Court for implementing a Smart Court System featuring automated transcription, virtual hearings, and an Integrated Case Management System that enables litigants to track cases online. Covering 24 federal branches to date, this innovation marks an important step toward transparent and accessible justice across Ethiopia. 𝙊𝙣 𝙈𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙖, 𝘾𝙪𝙡𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙚, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙏𝙤𝙪𝙧𝙞𝙨𝙢 Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed attended the launch of the pan-African media outlet Pulse of Africa, a platform he first proposed during the 35th Ordinary Session of the African Union Assembly in 2022. The initiative seeks to amplify African perspectives, counter negative portrayals of the continent, and strengthen African unity through shared narratives. In his remarks, the Prime Minister emphasized that Pulse of Africa marks a significant step toward ensuring that Africans tell their own stories and shape their global image. Accompanied by First Lady Zinash Tayachew and a high-level delegation of former and current leaders, the Prime Minister also visited the Bale Zone to assess key development projects that integrate natural heritage with national progress. The delegation toured the Bale Mountains National Park, one of Ethiopia’s most ecologically diverse and economically significant natural areas. The Prime Minister observed ongoing tourism developments, including the nearly completed Dinsho Lodge at the heart of the park and the Sof Omer Luxury Lodge near the Sof Omer Cave. Both projects are designed to advance Ethiopia’s Ten-Year Strategic Plan by positioning tourism as a catalyst for economic transformation. The Sof Omer Cave Development Project complements these initiatives by improving access and visitor facilities around one of the country’s most celebrated natural landmarks. The delegation also inspected the Robe–Goro–Sof Omer–GinirJunction Road Upgrading Project, a dual asphalt roadway featuring five bridges that connect the productive agricultural zones of East Bale and Bale with central Ethiopia. The upgraded route enhances regional mobility, strengthens economic integration, and improves access to major tourist destinations such as the Bale Mountains National Park and Sof Omer Cave. In addition, the Prime Minister reviewed the Weib River Flood Control Project, which regulates water flow through the cave system to ensure year-round accessibility and protect its ecosystem. He also examined tourism development efforts in the Harenna cluster, including the construction of the Rira Eco Lodge, new viewpoints, restaurants, and coffee facilities along the routes leading to Tulu Dimtu, the park’s highest peak. These initiatives aim to expand sustainable tourism, create local employment, and showcase the natural and cultural richness of the Bale region. The visit concluded at the Fincha Habera Waterfall, where the delegation explored the surrounding landscape, home to the Ethiopian Red Fox, diverse birdlife, and striking geological formations such as the Rafu rock pinnacles. The area, which recently revealed a newly discovered cave system, will soon feature a glamping site designed to promote eco-friendly tourism. Reflecting on the visit, Prime Minister Abiy highlighted Ethiopia as a land of abundance and opportunity, urging citizens to safeguard and build upon the nation’s natural and human wealth for future generations. The delegation collectively reaffirmed the importance of stewardship, unity, and visionary development in shaping Ethiopia’s sustainable and prosperous future. 𝙋𝙖𝙧𝙡𝙞𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙖𝙧𝙮 𝙀𝙣𝙜𝙖𝙜𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙉𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙖𝙡 𝘿𝙞𝙨𝙘𝙤𝙪𝙧𝙨𝙚 Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, in his recent address to Ethiopia’s Parliament, highlighted the country’s substantial progress in economic reform, diversification, and infrastructure development. He noted that Ethiopia’s shift from an agriculture-dependent economy toward industrial and service growth has yielded impressive results, citing rapid agricultural expansion, record-high export revenues, and increased foreign reserves. Major investments in green initiatives, transport infrastructure, and energy projects are transforming productivity and sustainability, while prudent debt management and targeted subsidies have stabilized inflation. He emphasized the government’s focus on strengthening institutional capacity, expanding digitalization, training millions of youth in coding, and modernizing service delivery through nationwide one-stop centers. On peace and governance, the Prime Minister reaffirmed Ethiopia’s commitment to stability, dialogue, and national unity, warning against both internal and external actors seeking to destabilize the country. He stressed that the only viable path for Ethiopia is peaceful political transition and democratic consolidation. Looking ahead to the upcoming national election, he assured Parliament of the government’s readiness to ensure a fair and inclusive process. On foreign relations, he reiterated Ethiopia’s right to equitable use of the Nile waters and called for cooperative engagement with neighboring countries. Addressing the Red Sea question, he described it as a legitimate historical and economic concern that Ethiopia intends to pursue through dialogue and mutual development, underscoring that the nation’s growth is intertwined with regional prosperity and peace. 𝙊𝙣 𝘿𝙞𝙥𝙡𝙤𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙘 𝙀𝙣𝙜𝙖𝙜𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙍𝙚𝙜𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙖𝙡 𝘾𝙤𝙤𝙥𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 On the international stage, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed led Ethiopia’s delegation to the 24th Summit of the COMESA Authority of Heads of State and Government in Nairobi, Kenya, held under the theme “Leveraging Digitalization to Deepen Regional Value Chains for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth.” Addressing the Summit, he underscored that Africa’s digital transformation offers a unique opportunity to rewrite its economic narrative and strengthen continental integration. He affirmed Ethiopia’s readiness to collaborate with regional partners to advance a shared digital future. In separate diplomatic meetings, the Prime Minister held discussions with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of the Federal Republic of Somalia on bilateral and regional matters of mutual interest, and with Dr. Constantinos Kombos, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Cyprus, to strengthen political and economic cooperation between their two nations. 𝙊𝙣 𝙏𝙖𝙭𝙥𝙖𝙮𝙚𝙧 𝙍𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙜𝙣𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙂𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙣𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚 𝙍𝙚𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙢 At the 7th Annual Loyal Taxpayers Recognition Ceremony, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed celebrated outstanding taxpayers for their contributions to Ethiopia’s development. He reaffirmed that tax revenues are being invested in vital public goods and infrastructure projects and urged all citizens to uphold transparency and reject corruption. The Prime Minister emphasized that collective integrity and accountability are essential to building a just and prosperous nation. Throughout October 2025, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s decisive leadership and forward-looking initiatives across industry, agriculture, urban renewal, justice, and diplomacy demonstrated Ethiopia’s unwavering commitment to inclusive development and national progress. // #PMOEthiopia
0:50

In October 2025, the Prime Minister undertook a series of national and international engagements focused on infrastructure development, rural transformation, governance reform, and diplomatic cooperation. Here is a brief recap of the past month: 𝙊𝙣 𝙐𝙧𝙗𝙖𝙣 𝘿𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙡𝙤𝙥𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙁𝙤𝙧𝙚𝙞𝙜𝙣 𝘿𝙞𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙩 𝙄𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 A defining highlight of the month was the laying of the foundation stone for the urea fertilizer plant, a landmark project developed through a partnership between Ethiopian Investment Holdings and the Dangote Group. With an annual production capacity of three million tons, the plant will utilize natural gas from the Calub gas fields, transported through a 108-kilometer pipeline. This project is a cornerstone of Ethiopia’s strategy to achieve fertilizer self-sufficiency and enhance agricultural productivity. In the Somali Region, the Prime Minister also inaugurated the Gode Oil Refinery, developed by Golden Concord Group Limited (GCL). The refinery, designed to process 3.5 million tons of crude oil and condensate per year from the Hilala oil field, represents a significant step in Ethiopia’s path toward energy independence. Complementing these milestones, the Prime Minister inaugurated the first phase of the Ogaden Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) Project in Calub. The facility, with an annual production capacity of 111 million litres and the ability to generate 1,000 megawatts of energy, strengthens Ethiopia’s industrial base while contributing critical inputs to fertilizer production and energy generation. During his visit to Jigjiga in the Somali Region, the Prime Minister observed the city’s rapid transformation since his last visit in January 2025. Thousands of new housing units are under construction, and corridor development projects are visibly enhancing urban well-being. He lauded the Dine for Generations Project, nearing completion in the Somali Region, for unlocking new opportunities in tourism and stimulating regional economic growth. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, accompanied by members of the Prosperity Party Executive Committee, visited the corridor development project extending from Sar Bet to German Square, encompassing the Garment Factory and the Furi area. Spanning 589 hectares, it is the second-largest urban corridor after Kazanchis. The project features 16.5 kilometers of asphalt roads, 33 kilometers of pedestrian walkways, plazas, sports and recreation facilities, riverbank development, and over 1,100 commercial shops. The initiative embodies Ethiopia’s broader vision of creating modern, livable, and economically vibrant cities. 𝙊𝙣 𝙍𝙪𝙧𝙖𝙡 𝙏𝙧𝙖𝙣𝙨𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝘼𝙜𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙪𝙡𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙖𝙡 𝙈𝙤𝙙𝙚𝙧𝙣𝙞𝙯𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 Advancing his government’s rural development agenda, the Prime Minister presided over the handover of model rural villages constructed through the Rainy Season Voluntary Scheme in the Halaba, Kembatta, Hadiya, and Silte zones. Each home in these Rural Corridor Villages is equipped with solar power, biogas systems, sanitation facilities, and animal shelters, significantly improving hygiene, comfort, and productivity for rural families. These model villages mark a new chapter in Ethiopia’s mission to raise rural living standards and promote sustainable livelihoods. The Prime Minister encouraged regional leaders to expand these initiatives, setting a target of 100 new houses per zone by next year. During his visit to the East Shewa Zone of the Oromia Region, the Prime Minister also reviewed the rainy season wheat harvest and launched summer wheat production activities. He assessed progress in banana, papaya, and fish farming clusters, emphasizing the growing adoption of mechanized agriculture as a major driver of productivity and self-reliance. He also inaugurated the Welmel River Irrigation Development Project in Delo-Mena Woreda, Bale Zone. Once fully operational, the project will irrigate 9,687 hectares of farmland, benefiting 20,000 farming households and enhancing drought resilience, food sovereignty, and rural employment. 𝙊𝙣 𝙀𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙤𝙢𝙞𝙘 𝙂𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙣𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙈𝙖𝙘𝙧𝙤𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙤𝙢𝙞𝙘 𝙍𝙚𝙫𝙞𝙚𝙬 At the Koysha Project site, the Prime Minister convened a strategic review session with the Council of Ministers to assess the macroeconomic performance of the first 100 days of the 2018 Ethiopian Fiscal Year. The review examined achievements, challenges, and strategic priorities, highlighting Ethiopia’s sustained economic resilience amid global uncertainty. The nation’s GDP growth rate stood at 9.2 percent for the 2017 fiscal year, underscoring the success of reforms aimed at fostering inclusive and diversified growth. 𝙊𝙣 𝙅𝙪𝙙𝙞𝙘𝙞𝙖𝙡 𝙈𝙤𝙙𝙚𝙧𝙣𝙞𝙨𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙧𝙤𝙪𝙜𝙝 𝘿𝙞𝙜𝙞𝙩𝙖𝙡 𝙏𝙧𝙖𝙣𝙨𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 Building on the success of the Digital 2025 Strategy, the Prime Minister announced the forthcoming Digital 2030 Strategy, focused on advancing automation and improving public service delivery. He commended the Federal Supreme Court for implementing a Smart Court System featuring automated transcription, virtual hearings, and an Integrated Case Management System that enables litigants to track cases online. Covering 24 federal branches to date, this innovation marks an important step toward transparent and accessible justice across Ethiopia. 𝙊𝙣 𝙈𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙖, 𝘾𝙪𝙡𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙚, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙏𝙤𝙪𝙧𝙞𝙨𝙢 Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed attended the launch of the pan-African media outlet Pulse of Africa, a platform he first proposed during the 35th Ordinary Session of the African Union Assembly in 2022. The initiative seeks to amplify African perspectives, counter negative portrayals of the continent, and strengthen African unity through shared narratives. In his remarks, the Prime Minister emphasized that Pulse of Africa marks a significant step toward ensuring that Africans tell their own stories and shape their global image. Accompanied by First Lady Zinash Tayachew and a high-level delegation of former and current leaders, the Prime Minister also visited the Bale Zone to assess key development projects that integrate natural heritage with national progress. The delegation toured the Bale Mountains National Park, one of Ethiopia’s most ecologically diverse and economically significant natural areas. The Prime Minister observed ongoing tourism developments, including the nearly completed Dinsho Lodge at the heart of the park and the Sof Omer Luxury Lodge near the Sof Omer Cave. Both projects are designed to advance Ethiopia’s Ten-Year Strategic Plan by positioning tourism as a catalyst for economic transformation. The Sof Omer Cave Development Project complements these initiatives by improving access and visitor facilities around one of the country’s most celebrated natural landmarks. The delegation also inspected the Robe–Goro–Sof Omer–GinirJunction Road Upgrading Project, a dual asphalt roadway featuring five bridges that connect the productive agricultural zones of East Bale and Bale with central Ethiopia. The upgraded route enhances regional mobility, strengthens economic integration, and improves access to major tourist destinations such as the Bale Mountains National Park and Sof Omer Cave. In addition, the Prime Minister reviewed the Weib River Flood Control Project, which regulates water flow through the cave system to ensure year-round accessibility and protect its ecosystem. He also examined tourism development efforts in the Harenna cluster, including the construction of the Rira Eco Lodge, new viewpoints, restaurants, and coffee facilities along the routes leading to Tulu Dimtu, the park’s highest peak. These initiatives aim to expand sustainable tourism, create local employment, and showcase the natural and cultural richness of the Bale region. The visit concluded at the Fincha Habera Waterfall, where the delegation explored the surrounding landscape, home to the Ethiopian Red Fox, diverse birdlife, and striking geological formations such as the Rafu rock pinnacles. The area, which recently revealed a newly discovered cave system, will soon feature a glamping site designed to promote eco-friendly tourism. Reflecting on the visit, Prime Minister Abiy highlighted Ethiopia as a land of abundance and opportunity, urging citizens to safeguard and build upon the nation’s natural and human wealth for future generations. The delegation collectively reaffirmed the importance of stewardship, unity, and visionary development in shaping Ethiopia’s sustainable and prosperous future. 𝙋𝙖𝙧𝙡𝙞𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙖𝙧𝙮 𝙀𝙣𝙜𝙖𝙜𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙉𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙖𝙡 𝘿𝙞𝙨𝙘𝙤𝙪𝙧𝙨𝙚 Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, in his recent address to Ethiopia’s Parliament, highlighted the country’s substantial progress in economic reform, diversification, and infrastructure development. He noted that Ethiopia’s shift from an agriculture-dependent economy toward industrial and service growth has yielded impressive results, citing rapid agricultural expansion, record-high export revenues, and increased foreign reserves. Major investments in green initiatives, transport infrastructure, and energy projects are transforming productivity and sustainability, while prudent debt management and targeted subsidies have stabilized inflation. He emphasized the government’s focus on strengthening institutional capacity, expanding digitalization, training millions of youth in coding, and modernizing service delivery through nationwide one-stop centers. On peace and governance, the Prime Minister reaffirmed Ethiopia’s commitment to stability, dialogue, and national unity, warning against both internal and external actors seeking to destabilize the country. He stressed that the only viable path for Ethiopia is peaceful political transition and democratic consolidation. Looking ahead to the upcoming national election, he assured Parliament of the government’s readiness to ensure a fair and inclusive process. On foreign relations, he reiterated Ethiopia’s right to equitable use of the Nile waters and called for cooperative engagement with neighboring countries. Addressing the Red Sea question, he described it as a legitimate historical and economic concern that Ethiopia intends to pursue through dialogue and mutual development, underscoring that the nation’s growth is intertwined with regional prosperity and peace. 𝙊𝙣 𝘿𝙞𝙥𝙡𝙤𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙘 𝙀𝙣𝙜𝙖𝙜𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙍𝙚𝙜𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙖𝙡 𝘾𝙤𝙤𝙥𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 On the international stage, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed led Ethiopia’s delegation to the 24th Summit of the COMESA Authority of Heads of State and Government in Nairobi, Kenya, held under the theme “Leveraging Digitalization to Deepen Regional Value Chains for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth.” Addressing the Summit, he underscored that Africa’s digital transformation offers a unique opportunity to rewrite its economic narrative and strengthen continental integration. He affirmed Ethiopia’s readiness to collaborate with regional partners to advance a shared digital future. In separate diplomatic meetings, the Prime Minister held discussions with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of the Federal Republic of Somalia on bilateral and regional matters of mutual interest, and with Dr. Constantinos Kombos, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Cyprus, to strengthen political and economic cooperation between their two nations. 𝙊𝙣 𝙏𝙖𝙭𝙥𝙖𝙮𝙚𝙧 𝙍𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙜𝙣𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙂𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙣𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚 𝙍𝙚𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙢 At the 7th Annual Loyal Taxpayers Recognition Ceremony, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed celebrated outstanding taxpayers for their contributions to Ethiopia’s development. He reaffirmed that tax revenues are being invested in vital public goods and infrastructure projects and urged all citizens to uphold transparency and reject corruption. The Prime Minister emphasized that collective integrity and accountability are essential to building a just and prosperous nation. Throughout October 2025, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s decisive leadership and forward-looking initiatives across industry, agriculture, urban renewal, justice, and diplomacy demonstrated Ethiopia’s unwavering commitment to inclusive development and national progress. // #PMOEthiopia

Office of the Prime Minister - Ethiopia

12,135 次观看 • 9 个月前

Renowned macro strategist David Hunter joins Alex on the pod to discuss his bold forecasts for the markets and the global economy. With 50 years of Wall Street experience, David shares why he believes we're heading for the biggest financial crisis in history—a "global bust" driven by excessive leverage, soaring debt, and central bank missteps. Despite calling for a 30–40% market melt-up before the crash, David predicts a severe financial unwind that could reshape the global economic landscape. He also delves into the future of gold, silver, and commodities, the role of central banks, and how policymakers may react to unprecedented challenges. Follow David on X: David Hunter If you really enjoy our content, subscribe to Pinnacle Digest's weekly email newsletter. Economics, geopolitics, and commodities are topics we routinely cover: 𝙁𝙊𝙇𝙇𝙊𝙒 𝙋𝙄𝙉𝙉𝘼𝘾𝙇𝙀 𝘿𝙄𝙂𝙀𝙎𝙏 𝙃𝙀𝙍𝙀 ▷ Official Site: ► Facebook: ► Instagram: ► YouTube: Chapters 00:00 - Intro 00:34 - David Hunter Joins the Podcast 1:07 - The Melt-Up Prediction 1:44 - Market Timing and S&P 500 Target 5:00 - Explaining the Parabolic Melt-Up 6:18 - Using Sentiment, Fundamentals, and Technicals for S&P 500 Target 8:40 - How Will Trump Impact the Markets? 11:05 - Global Bust Explained 15:10 - Central Bank Policy Missteps 16:20 - What Causes a Recession? 17:30 - The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Shrinkage 19:25 - Who or What Really Controls Interest Rates? 22:45 - How Bad Will The Market Crash? 24:00 - Massive Monetary Stimulus and Its Consequences 35:40 - Treasuries, the Dollar, and Safe Assets 37:09 - Gold, Silver, and Commodities Post-Bust 40:00 - The 2030s Depression Scenario 42:56 - Hope for the Future: Trump’s Role and Free Market Policies 46:14 - Final Thoughts and Where to Follow David Hunter 47:15 - Disclaimer & Forward-Looking Statements PLEASE READ #financialcrisis #meltup #davidhunter #FinancialMarkets #SP500 #macroinvesting #contrarian DISCLAIMER: This video podcast (the “Video”) is not investment advice. The Video is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. All statements in the Video are to be checked and verified by the viewer. The Video may contain technical or other inaccuracies, omissions, or errors, for which Maximus Strategic Consulting Inc. ("Maximus"), owner of and the Pinnacle Digest YouTube channel, assumes no responsibility. Neither Alexander Smith nor David Hunter are financial advisors. Before investing in any securities, commodities or cryptocurrencies, you should consult with your financial advisor and a registered broker-dealer. Alexander Smith and David Hunter (the "Contributors") have made wrong predictions in the past, and they'll likely do it again. Never make an investment based solely on what you hear or see in the Video. As with all investments, investors should carefully consider their investment objectives and risk tolerance before investing. Conduct your own thorough and independent due diligence to understand the risks associated with investing in any security, cryptocurrency and commodity. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, that address activities, events or developments the Contributors expect or anticipate will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements also include, but are not limited to, statements regarding: industry trends; inflation and deflation forecasts; future performance for individual stocks, commodities and cryptocurrencies; the future performance of stock markets and indices; monetary policy, and other estimates or expectations. Much of the Video is comprised of statements of projection. These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements. Maximus and the Contributors disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in the Video. Information in the Video has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Maximus and the Contributors make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in the Video. Any opinion expressed in the Video is subject to change without notice. Sources and supplementary information:
47:33

Renowned macro strategist David Hunter joins Alex on the pod to discuss his bold forecasts for the markets and the global economy. With 50 years of Wall Street experience, David shares why he believes we're heading for the biggest financial crisis in history—a "global bust" driven by excessive leverage, soaring debt, and central bank missteps. Despite calling for a 30–40% market melt-up before the crash, David predicts a severe financial unwind that could reshape the global economic landscape. He also delves into the future of gold, silver, and commodities, the role of central banks, and how policymakers may react to unprecedented challenges. Follow David on X: David Hunter If you really enjoy our content, subscribe to Pinnacle Digest's weekly email newsletter. Economics, geopolitics, and commodities are topics we routinely cover: 𝙁𝙊𝙇𝙇𝙊𝙒 𝙋𝙄𝙉𝙉𝘼𝘾𝙇𝙀 𝘿𝙄𝙂𝙀𝙎𝙏 𝙃𝙀𝙍𝙀 ▷ Official Site: ► Facebook: ► Instagram: ► YouTube: Chapters 00:00 - Intro 00:34 - David Hunter Joins the Podcast 1:07 - The Melt-Up Prediction 1:44 - Market Timing and S&P 500 Target 5:00 - Explaining the Parabolic Melt-Up 6:18 - Using Sentiment, Fundamentals, and Technicals for S&P 500 Target 8:40 - How Will Trump Impact the Markets? 11:05 - Global Bust Explained 15:10 - Central Bank Policy Missteps 16:20 - What Causes a Recession? 17:30 - The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Shrinkage 19:25 - Who or What Really Controls Interest Rates? 22:45 - How Bad Will The Market Crash? 24:00 - Massive Monetary Stimulus and Its Consequences 35:40 - Treasuries, the Dollar, and Safe Assets 37:09 - Gold, Silver, and Commodities Post-Bust 40:00 - The 2030s Depression Scenario 42:56 - Hope for the Future: Trump’s Role and Free Market Policies 46:14 - Final Thoughts and Where to Follow David Hunter 47:15 - Disclaimer & Forward-Looking Statements PLEASE READ #financialcrisis #meltup #davidhunter #FinancialMarkets #SP500 #macroinvesting #contrarian DISCLAIMER: This video podcast (the “Video”) is not investment advice. The Video is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. All statements in the Video are to be checked and verified by the viewer. The Video may contain technical or other inaccuracies, omissions, or errors, for which Maximus Strategic Consulting Inc. ("Maximus"), owner of and the Pinnacle Digest YouTube channel, assumes no responsibility. Neither Alexander Smith nor David Hunter are financial advisors. Before investing in any securities, commodities or cryptocurrencies, you should consult with your financial advisor and a registered broker-dealer. Alexander Smith and David Hunter (the "Contributors") have made wrong predictions in the past, and they'll likely do it again. Never make an investment based solely on what you hear or see in the Video. As with all investments, investors should carefully consider their investment objectives and risk tolerance before investing. Conduct your own thorough and independent due diligence to understand the risks associated with investing in any security, cryptocurrency and commodity. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, that address activities, events or developments the Contributors expect or anticipate will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements also include, but are not limited to, statements regarding: industry trends; inflation and deflation forecasts; future performance for individual stocks, commodities and cryptocurrencies; the future performance of stock markets and indices; monetary policy, and other estimates or expectations. Much of the Video is comprised of statements of projection. These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements. Maximus and the Contributors disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in the Video. Information in the Video has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Maximus and the Contributors make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in the Video. Any opinion expressed in the Video is subject to change without notice. Sources and supplementary information:

Pinnacle Digest

45,224 次观看 • 1 年前

April 10th, 2024 PETITION TO PI NETWORK PI2DAY OM GCV$314,159 Pi Network #Pi2DayGCVOMMovement #GCV $314,159 TORONTO, CANADA PETITION TO OPEN MAINNET ON PI2DAY 2024 WITH GCV $314,159 Dear Dr. Nicolas Kokkalis, Dr. Fan, and Core Team, I hope you're doing well. I am writing to you as a Global GCV Ambassador, GCV Preacher, and GCV Global Movement Founder. My background is USA CPA and Tax Resolution Specialist. Two years ago, I organized three global events to create a consensus on the price of GCV, which was set at $314,159 after extensive education, seminars, and discussions. I also went through a tough journey with global community pioneers and merchants, especially in China, who invested 100 million USD for barter. Additionally, I have held at least 20 major global conferences and written one million words in articles. Currently, my 31 articles on various topics have been circulated in more than 10 languages to provide basic education to global pioneers. Pi Network has become an integral part of the lives of 55 million pioneers. Over the past 5 years, we have faced the challenge of building a real cryptocurrency, overcoming traditional cryptocurrency bias among the pioneers. I want to express my deep appreciation for the hard work and dedication shown by the Core Team towards humanity. I have complete faith in your wisdom and guidance, as stated by Dr. Nicolas, in leading us toward the goals and objectives outlined in the white paper. I am fully committed to serving our community, just as Dr. Nicolas does. I have noticed several issues with Pi Network's ecosystem development. The delay in the united price, along with the uncertainty and unavailability of outside services, materials, rent, employees, and taxes to accept Pi payment, is hindering the ecosystem's growth. Additionally, some ecosystems are not aligning with Pi Network's long-term goals. Therefore, we must have a united price. Otherwise, all ecosystems can not move. So, the key to Pi Network's successful OM is to fix a price at safe and long-term levels. And we believe GCV$314,159 is the only option with so many pioneers and business support. The root of the delay OM caused is the lack of education among the pioneers violating the policies. Now, I am working closely with global GCV ambassadors and community leaders, and we have recently made significant progress. This is why I submitted a petition for GCV $314,159 and Pi2Day 2024 to OM, which will help us further enha he ecosystem development. We understand that delay and uncertainty will damage the community's trust and confidence. We also recognize that the delay resulted from the pioneers' policy violation. We promise to work diligently and wisely to prevent any safety and security issues for Pi Network OM. We have noticed that at least 80% of pioneers have occupied GCV $314,159. As a result, I am representing the global GCV community from over 100 countries to request CT to accept our petition for GCV $314,159 as the OM start price and confirm the OM date to Pi2Day We are confident that this OM date and GCV price can ensure 100% success for Pi Network. The Global GCV Movement, representing pioneers from over 100 countries, is fully committed to achieving our goals. This commitment underscores our readiness and dedication for the next phase of Pi Network. Therefore, we request your support and consideration for our proposal and petition to open the mainnet on June 28, 2024. We are confident that by collaborating, we can accomplish remarkable milestones for GCV and contribute significantly to its growth and success. We appreciate your time and consideration regarding our proposal. We anticipate your favorable response. Warm regards, GRAND GCV GLOBAL AMBASSADOR USA TAX RESOLUTION SPECIALIST DORIS YIN东方紫莲🇨🇦 🇨🇳
1:44

April 10th, 2024 PETITION TO PI NETWORK PI2DAY OM GCV$314,159 Pi Network #Pi2DayGCVOMMovement #GCV $314,159 TORONTO, CANADA PETITION TO OPEN MAINNET ON PI2DAY 2024 WITH GCV $314,159 Dear Dr. Nicolas Kokkalis, Dr. Fan, and Core Team, I hope you're doing well. I am writing to you as a Global GCV Ambassador, GCV Preacher, and GCV Global Movement Founder. My background is USA CPA and Tax Resolution Specialist. Two years ago, I organized three global events to create a consensus on the price of GCV, which was set at $314,159 after extensive education, seminars, and discussions. I also went through a tough journey with global community pioneers and merchants, especially in China, who invested 100 million USD for barter. Additionally, I have held at least 20 major global conferences and written one million words in articles. Currently, my 31 articles on various topics have been circulated in more than 10 languages to provide basic education to global pioneers. Pi Network has become an integral part of the lives of 55 million pioneers. Over the past 5 years, we have faced the challenge of building a real cryptocurrency, overcoming traditional cryptocurrency bias among the pioneers. I want to express my deep appreciation for the hard work and dedication shown by the Core Team towards humanity. I have complete faith in your wisdom and guidance, as stated by Dr. Nicolas, in leading us toward the goals and objectives outlined in the white paper. I am fully committed to serving our community, just as Dr. Nicolas does. I have noticed several issues with Pi Network's ecosystem development. The delay in the united price, along with the uncertainty and unavailability of outside services, materials, rent, employees, and taxes to accept Pi payment, is hindering the ecosystem's growth. Additionally, some ecosystems are not aligning with Pi Network's long-term goals. Therefore, we must have a united price. Otherwise, all ecosystems can not move. So, the key to Pi Network's successful OM is to fix a price at safe and long-term levels. And we believe GCV$314,159 is the only option with so many pioneers and business support. The root of the delay OM caused is the lack of education among the pioneers violating the policies. Now, I am working closely with global GCV ambassadors and community leaders, and we have recently made significant progress. This is why I submitted a petition for GCV $314,159 and Pi2Day 2024 to OM, which will help us further enha he ecosystem development. We understand that delay and uncertainty will damage the community's trust and confidence. We also recognize that the delay resulted from the pioneers' policy violation. We promise to work diligently and wisely to prevent any safety and security issues for Pi Network OM. We have noticed that at least 80% of pioneers have occupied GCV $314,159. As a result, I am representing the global GCV community from over 100 countries to request CT to accept our petition for GCV $314,159 as the OM start price and confirm the OM date to Pi2Day We are confident that this OM date and GCV price can ensure 100% success for Pi Network. The Global GCV Movement, representing pioneers from over 100 countries, is fully committed to achieving our goals. This commitment underscores our readiness and dedication for the next phase of Pi Network. Therefore, we request your support and consideration for our proposal and petition to open the mainnet on June 28, 2024. We are confident that by collaborating, we can accomplish remarkable milestones for GCV and contribute significantly to its growth and success. We appreciate your time and consideration regarding our proposal. We anticipate your favorable response. Warm regards, GRAND GCV GLOBAL AMBASSADOR USA TAX RESOLUTION SPECIALIST DORIS YIN东方紫莲🇨🇦 🇨🇳

Doris Yin 东方紫莲🪷

170,537 次观看 • 2 年前

The tragedy of Zimbabwean politics is that there is reality, and then there are aspirations, aspirations that often drift into political delusions that hope for miracles. Too often, our people choose the latter. Instead of confronting the hard political realities before us, they cling to the hope that events will somehow unfold in their favour miraculously, regardless of the evidence saying otherwise. I have listened carefully to Vice President General Constantino Chiwenga’s latest remarks, given to us through a parable of Lazarus and the other biblical analogies he has shared at different intervals. He has demonstrated that he understands religion, reads the Bible extensively, and is comfortable using scripture to communicate political ideas and messages to the Zimbabwean citizenry. That, however, does not change our political reality. In 2017, General Chiwenga successfully marshalled the military, worked hand in glove with other senior figures within the security establishment, mobilised ordinary citizens onto the streets with the help of the opposition, and carried out the military coup that removed former president Robert Mugabe from power after forcing him to write a resignation letter with a gun over his head. Today, however, General Chiwenga faces a far steeper challenge because Zimbabweans are deeply disillusioned by what followed. Fairly or unfairly, many do not see what happened after November 2017 simply as Mnangagwa’s project. They see it as General Chiwenga’s military intervention because he was the Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces who executed it; he was the poster boy of the military coup. Zimbabwean citizens jokingly called him General Bae. “Bae” is an affectionate term for someone you love or care about deeply. Whether one agrees with that assessment or not, that General Chiwenga bears responsibility for what followed the coup is a political perception that remains ingrained in the country’s memory. Anything that emerged from that military coup inevitably falls, to some extent, on his shoulders. That leaves him with an enormous task if he hopes to redeem himself politically. His biggest challenge is that, unlike Robert Mugabe, President Emmerson Mnangagwa is an exceptionally patient, calculating, and tactical politician who plans years ahead of eventual execution, and who does so ruthlessly, without any mercy for his political opponents. Today, we are confronted with Constitutional Amendment Bill No. 3, which is now on President Mnangagwa’s desk awaiting his signature. Once enacted, it will, barring a political miracle, effectively extinguish Chiwenga’s path to the presidency and also extinguish the little prospect of an opposition president. But this story did not begin in 2026. It began in 2021 with Constitutional Amendment Bill No. 2, which abolished the running mate clause. That provision would have significantly strengthened General Chiwenga’s prospects of automatically succeeding President Mnangagwa. When Amendment No. 2 was introduced, I argued that it was unmistakable evidence that President Mnangagwa had no intention whatsoever of handing over power to Chiwenga. As usual, because many people preferred comforting illusions to uncomfortable facts, many disagreed with that political assessment. Some within ZANUPF accused me of talking political nonsense. Others insisted that Mnangagwa and Chiwenga were inseparable political brothers who would always work together. Even sections of the opposition dismissed my political analysis, arguing that Mnangagwa would never have the political capacity to sideline Chiwenga because powerful forces would stop him. Reality has partly answered that debate. The results are before us. The so-called forces have not been able to stop him so far. Today, the Vice President increasingly relies on biblical parables to communicate his political messaging while Mnangagwa steadily and ruthlessly tightens his grip on every important lever of state power. The military itself illustrates this shift. The Zimbabwe National Army is now commanded by Major General Walter Tapfumaneyi. His rise is politically significant to the story so far and to where the story might take us as it continues to unfold. General Tapfumaneyi left the army as a colonel after falling out with the military establishment during General Chiwenga’s tenure as Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces. He was made a Brigadier General upon retirement from the army. He joined the Central Intelligence Organisation, where he rose to become Deputy Director-General. He also commanded Forever Associates Zimbabwe (FAZ), the organisation widely associated with supporting President Mnangagwa’s electoral machinery during the 2023 elections. When President Mnangagwa returned him to the Zimbabwe National Army, he was promoted to the rank of Major General. He leapfrogged several Major Generals who had served longer at that rank when he was appointed Commander of the Zimbabwe National Army. President Mnangagwa was now building the army in his own desired image and dismantling General Chiwenga’s army management network. His appointment strengthened Mnangagwa’s influence over one of the country’s most important institutions, the military. He was appointed after President Mnangagwa fired General Chiwenga’s right-hand man, General Anselem Nhamo Sanyatwe, who had been the commander who supervised the 2017 coup when he was commander of the Presidential Guard. He was appointed as Sports Minister, replacing Kirsty Coventry. Today’s Presidential Guard presents a similar picture. It has also been reshaped to suit President Mnangagwa’s political pursuits. The same formation that played a decisive role during the 2017 military intervention, then commanded by Colonel Anselem Sanyatwe before his subsequent promotion to Brigadier General, is today under a commander aligned with Mnangagwa. Major General Fidelis Mhonda, who commands today’s Presidential Guard, was promoted a few days ago to the rank of Major General, reinforcing the widespread perception that the Presidential Guard is now firmly within Mnangagwa’s sphere of influence and political control. Above them sits the Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, General Emmanuel Matatu, from the Midlands province. Unlike Chiwenga during his tenure, General Matatu has generally not been viewed as an overt political operator. His role has largely been seen as maintaining institutional continuity rather than building an independent political constituency within the military, as General Chiwenga did during his time in the army. Taken together, these developments are seen by President Mnangagwa and his close associates as significantly reducing the prospects of another military coup to remove him. Over time, President Mnangagwa has systematically reshaped the senior military command structure. Military officers perceived to be close to Chiwenga have either retired, died, been reassigned, or gradually lost influence, while others considered more acceptable to Mnangagwa have risen through the ranks. Whether intentional or simply the natural evolution of military succession, the result has been the steady consolidation of presidential influence over the security establishment, weakening General Chiwenga’s influence. Meanwhile, many Zimbabweans have begun looking to Chiwenga for a viable counterforce because they see little prospect of meaningful change emerging from the fragmented opposition. Yet Chiwenga’s recent biblical parable appears to carry a different message. Rather than suggesting that salvation will come through him and his military associates alone, he seems to be telling Zimbabweans that they must act for themselves instead of waiting for someone else to rescue them. If that is indeed his message, it presents a political dilemma. Zimbabweans have repeatedly been encouraged to “wait and watch,” with suggestions that decisive, overwhelming action was imminent. Now they are being reminded that they themselves must participate. The difficulty is that many Zimbabweans remain traumatised by the state’s historical response to public demonstrations using the same military. When Chiwenga commanded the Zimbabwean military, those who protested often encountered overwhelming force. In August 2018, when he had become Vice President, soldiers shot civilians during post-election protests in Harare. The global media and British politicians like Kate Hoey directly blamed General Chiwenga for those killings because of Zimbabwe’s army history of dabbling in politics. Emmerson Mnangagwa’s public relations machine kicked into action and blamed General Chiwenga when speaking to diplomats and international businessmen about the circumstances surrounding what had taken place. A very powerful narrative was created that pointed to General Chiwenga as the culprit. President Mnangagwa told African presidents that when the killings took place, he was actually in a meeting with the former Ethiopian Prime Minister, Hailemariam Desalegn and the former Ethiopian dictator, Mengistu Haile Mariam. In 2008, while he was Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, the military killed hundreds of opposition supporters during the post-election violence that ultimately led to the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU). Those events remain deeply embedded in the political memory of Zimbabwean citizens. Consequently, many Zimbabweans today are understandably reluctant to return to the streets for fear of being killed. Ironically, it is a political environment that Chiwenga himself helped create. Successful military interventions that seek public legitimacy usually require significant civilian mobilisation. Unless one is contemplating an outright seizure of power through force alone, public participation matters. Today, however, fear has largely replaced mobilisation. Across Zimbabwe and throughout the diaspora, many people hold General Chiwenga partly responsible for the political situation the country now finds itself in. They argue that in 2017 he possessed both the military authority and the political leverage to shape Zimbabwe’s future differently. Former president Robert Mugabe sent former central bank governor Dr Gideon Gono during the coup in November 2017 to engage General Chiwenga and other senior military officers with proposals that would have allowed General Chiwenga himself to assume power. General Chiwenga refused this offer and remained loyal to President Emmerson Mnangagwa during the coup. President Mnangagwa, by contrast, has demonstrated unwavering commitment to securing his own political future in a ruthless and Machiavellian way. Every major constitutional change, every strategic appointment, and every restructuring of the security establishment point in the same direction. His political objectives have been pursued with remarkable political discipline, patience, and clarity, coupled with an iron fist. Regardless of how objectionable his actions have been, he continues to execute them, and so far he has been succeeding. That is why I return to where I began. Zimbabwean politics has become a contest between reality and aspiration or delusion. Many continue to believe that somehow events will take a different course through a political messiah despite the evidence accumulating before them. But politics rewards those who deal with reality and political actors who are not scared of executing their plans, regardless of how controversial they are. It does not reward those who substitute objective reality with hope. Whatever one thinks of President Emmerson Mnangagwa or General Constantino Chiwenga, the evidence available today points overwhelmingly in one direction. Mnangagwa has spent years methodically consolidating power, while many of his opponents have spent those same years believing circumstances would somehow change in their favour. The other element that helped the ascension of President Emmerson Mnangagwa was the main opposition political party of the day, the MDC. Former Prime Minister and founding MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai and his successor, Nelson Chamisa, worked with Mnangagwa in sanitising the coup by putting their supporters on the streets to make it look like it was a popular uprising against the sickly geriatric leader, Robert Mugabe. Today, the opposition is in disarray, crippled and, in many cases, comfortably ensconced in ZANUPF pockets. To put it more accurately, it is in Emmerson Mnangagwa’s pockets. The country’s most popular opposition leader, Nelson Chamisa, has also made his position clear through one of his own parables on social media. In a recent post, he suggested that he would not allow himself to be made to write Paper Two, in other words, another military coup. His argument is based on the fact that the first military coup delivered nothing but grief for the opposition. The opposition was promised a lot of things and as the coup ended successfully, former Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa told Zimbabweans that it was a strictly ZANUPF affair. Chamisa believes that repeating the same approach, when there is already evidence of what the first coup produced, would be politically futile. He is therefore clearly not prepared to marshal his supporters onto the streets on behalf of one ZANUPF faction against another because he sees this primarily as an internal ZANUPF power struggle as he sees it. Another important element is that President Emmerson Mnangagwa has been able to create massive wealth through public procurement for a coterie of loyal political backers. That wealth has played a significant role in securing political favours, consolidating power, and extending influence across many facets of Zimbabwean society. Mnangagwa loyalists have publicly donated luxury vehicles and other expensive gifts to senior military commanders, universities, churches, celebrities, and many related key institutional figures. In the religious sector, which has millions of fanatic followers, influential church leaders have received financial support and gifts. In the entertainment industry, prominent musicians such as Jah Prayzah, Alick Macheso, and others have also received gifts from wealthy Mnangagwa loyalists who openly support President Mnangagwa’s political agenda to extend his term of office. Taken together, these patronage networks have helped consolidate political influence well beyond the structures of the state itself. The odds facing the Vice President are therefore enormous. Barring a miracle, his path to the presidency appears increasingly very difficult. The irony is that part of the political architecture he helped build over the past two decades has created the very climate of fear that now stands in his way. If he were ever to seek public mobilisation, many Zimbabweans would be reluctant to take to the streets because of the state’s historical response to protests, much of which occurred while he occupied positions of immense power in the security sector. The other risk is that, if nothing changes, he could eventually be dismissed. Some of his ardent supporters like Knox Chivero have already gone onto public social media platforms claiming that there are plans to remove him from office. That possibility does not surprise political analysts at all. At some point, Mnangagwa may conclude that there is little political value in retaining a deputy whom he believes has been politically and militarily neutralised. Many political analysts now say, barring a political miracle powered by a military coup, Chiwenga could ultimately find himself leaving office as an ordinary civilian. Any attempt to remove a government through a military coup carries enormous risks and requires tonnes of money, as we saw with the 2017 military coup, which was reportedly funded by fuel tycoon Kudakwashe Tagwirei. Such an attempt must succeed because, historically, failed coups often have severe, and sometimes fatal, consequences for those who participate in them. It is a kill-or-be-killed situation once it unfolds. So, Vice President Chiwenga finds himself in an extraordinarily difficult position. His own faction is looking to him to lead and deliver. At the same time, many opposition supporters who now feel politically orphaned, with no credible political home, are also looking to him in the hope that he can bring about change but are terrified of the streets. As all this drama unfolds, President Emmerson Mnangagwa continues to tighten his grip on power. Constitutional Amendment Bill No. 3 now sits on his desk awaiting his signature, and it could be signed into law at any moment. Yet, for General Chiwenga, this is a make-or-break moment. If the Bill is signed into law and the General does nothing, many will conclude that his political presidential ambitions have come to an undignified end. If he attempts to act and fails, he could place himself in mortal danger. And if he simply waits, the political outcome may ultimately be the same, he risks being removed once Mnangagwa concludes that he no longer serves a useful political purpose. Time, as always, will be the ultimate judge. Reality and aspiration are now facing each other, and we have not a long time left for the ultimate showdown, or, as many suspect, little resistance.
4:08

The tragedy of Zimbabwean politics is that there is reality, and then there are aspirations, aspirations that often drift into political delusions that hope for miracles. Too often, our people choose the latter. Instead of confronting the hard political realities before us, they cling to the hope that events will somehow unfold in their favour miraculously, regardless of the evidence saying otherwise. I have listened carefully to Vice President General Constantino Chiwenga’s latest remarks, given to us through a parable of Lazarus and the other biblical analogies he has shared at different intervals. He has demonstrated that he understands religion, reads the Bible extensively, and is comfortable using scripture to communicate political ideas and messages to the Zimbabwean citizenry. That, however, does not change our political reality. In 2017, General Chiwenga successfully marshalled the military, worked hand in glove with other senior figures within the security establishment, mobilised ordinary citizens onto the streets with the help of the opposition, and carried out the military coup that removed former president Robert Mugabe from power after forcing him to write a resignation letter with a gun over his head. Today, however, General Chiwenga faces a far steeper challenge because Zimbabweans are deeply disillusioned by what followed. Fairly or unfairly, many do not see what happened after November 2017 simply as Mnangagwa’s project. They see it as General Chiwenga’s military intervention because he was the Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces who executed it; he was the poster boy of the military coup. Zimbabwean citizens jokingly called him General Bae. “Bae” is an affectionate term for someone you love or care about deeply. Whether one agrees with that assessment or not, that General Chiwenga bears responsibility for what followed the coup is a political perception that remains ingrained in the country’s memory. Anything that emerged from that military coup inevitably falls, to some extent, on his shoulders. That leaves him with an enormous task if he hopes to redeem himself politically. His biggest challenge is that, unlike Robert Mugabe, President Emmerson Mnangagwa is an exceptionally patient, calculating, and tactical politician who plans years ahead of eventual execution, and who does so ruthlessly, without any mercy for his political opponents. Today, we are confronted with Constitutional Amendment Bill No. 3, which is now on President Mnangagwa’s desk awaiting his signature. Once enacted, it will, barring a political miracle, effectively extinguish Chiwenga’s path to the presidency and also extinguish the little prospect of an opposition president. But this story did not begin in 2026. It began in 2021 with Constitutional Amendment Bill No. 2, which abolished the running mate clause. That provision would have significantly strengthened General Chiwenga’s prospects of automatically succeeding President Mnangagwa. When Amendment No. 2 was introduced, I argued that it was unmistakable evidence that President Mnangagwa had no intention whatsoever of handing over power to Chiwenga. As usual, because many people preferred comforting illusions to uncomfortable facts, many disagreed with that political assessment. Some within ZANUPF accused me of talking political nonsense. Others insisted that Mnangagwa and Chiwenga were inseparable political brothers who would always work together. Even sections of the opposition dismissed my political analysis, arguing that Mnangagwa would never have the political capacity to sideline Chiwenga because powerful forces would stop him. Reality has partly answered that debate. The results are before us. The so-called forces have not been able to stop him so far. Today, the Vice President increasingly relies on biblical parables to communicate his political messaging while Mnangagwa steadily and ruthlessly tightens his grip on every important lever of state power. The military itself illustrates this shift. The Zimbabwe National Army is now commanded by Major General Walter Tapfumaneyi. His rise is politically significant to the story so far and to where the story might take us as it continues to unfold. General Tapfumaneyi left the army as a colonel after falling out with the military establishment during General Chiwenga’s tenure as Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces. He was made a Brigadier General upon retirement from the army. He joined the Central Intelligence Organisation, where he rose to become Deputy Director-General. He also commanded Forever Associates Zimbabwe (FAZ), the organisation widely associated with supporting President Mnangagwa’s electoral machinery during the 2023 elections. When President Mnangagwa returned him to the Zimbabwe National Army, he was promoted to the rank of Major General. He leapfrogged several Major Generals who had served longer at that rank when he was appointed Commander of the Zimbabwe National Army. President Mnangagwa was now building the army in his own desired image and dismantling General Chiwenga’s army management network. His appointment strengthened Mnangagwa’s influence over one of the country’s most important institutions, the military. He was appointed after President Mnangagwa fired General Chiwenga’s right-hand man, General Anselem Nhamo Sanyatwe, who had been the commander who supervised the 2017 coup when he was commander of the Presidential Guard. He was appointed as Sports Minister, replacing Kirsty Coventry. Today’s Presidential Guard presents a similar picture. It has also been reshaped to suit President Mnangagwa’s political pursuits. The same formation that played a decisive role during the 2017 military intervention, then commanded by Colonel Anselem Sanyatwe before his subsequent promotion to Brigadier General, is today under a commander aligned with Mnangagwa. Major General Fidelis Mhonda, who commands today’s Presidential Guard, was promoted a few days ago to the rank of Major General, reinforcing the widespread perception that the Presidential Guard is now firmly within Mnangagwa’s sphere of influence and political control. Above them sits the Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, General Emmanuel Matatu, from the Midlands province. Unlike Chiwenga during his tenure, General Matatu has generally not been viewed as an overt political operator. His role has largely been seen as maintaining institutional continuity rather than building an independent political constituency within the military, as General Chiwenga did during his time in the army. Taken together, these developments are seen by President Mnangagwa and his close associates as significantly reducing the prospects of another military coup to remove him. Over time, President Mnangagwa has systematically reshaped the senior military command structure. Military officers perceived to be close to Chiwenga have either retired, died, been reassigned, or gradually lost influence, while others considered more acceptable to Mnangagwa have risen through the ranks. Whether intentional or simply the natural evolution of military succession, the result has been the steady consolidation of presidential influence over the security establishment, weakening General Chiwenga’s influence. Meanwhile, many Zimbabweans have begun looking to Chiwenga for a viable counterforce because they see little prospect of meaningful change emerging from the fragmented opposition. Yet Chiwenga’s recent biblical parable appears to carry a different message. Rather than suggesting that salvation will come through him and his military associates alone, he seems to be telling Zimbabweans that they must act for themselves instead of waiting for someone else to rescue them. If that is indeed his message, it presents a political dilemma. Zimbabweans have repeatedly been encouraged to “wait and watch,” with suggestions that decisive, overwhelming action was imminent. Now they are being reminded that they themselves must participate. The difficulty is that many Zimbabweans remain traumatised by the state’s historical response to public demonstrations using the same military. When Chiwenga commanded the Zimbabwean military, those who protested often encountered overwhelming force. In August 2018, when he had become Vice President, soldiers shot civilians during post-election protests in Harare. The global media and British politicians like Kate Hoey directly blamed General Chiwenga for those killings because of Zimbabwe’s army history of dabbling in politics. Emmerson Mnangagwa’s public relations machine kicked into action and blamed General Chiwenga when speaking to diplomats and international businessmen about the circumstances surrounding what had taken place. A very powerful narrative was created that pointed to General Chiwenga as the culprit. President Mnangagwa told African presidents that when the killings took place, he was actually in a meeting with the former Ethiopian Prime Minister, Hailemariam Desalegn and the former Ethiopian dictator, Mengistu Haile Mariam. In 2008, while he was Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, the military killed hundreds of opposition supporters during the post-election violence that ultimately led to the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU). Those events remain deeply embedded in the political memory of Zimbabwean citizens. Consequently, many Zimbabweans today are understandably reluctant to return to the streets for fear of being killed. Ironically, it is a political environment that Chiwenga himself helped create. Successful military interventions that seek public legitimacy usually require significant civilian mobilisation. Unless one is contemplating an outright seizure of power through force alone, public participation matters. Today, however, fear has largely replaced mobilisation. Across Zimbabwe and throughout the diaspora, many people hold General Chiwenga partly responsible for the political situation the country now finds itself in. They argue that in 2017 he possessed both the military authority and the political leverage to shape Zimbabwe’s future differently. Former president Robert Mugabe sent former central bank governor Dr Gideon Gono during the coup in November 2017 to engage General Chiwenga and other senior military officers with proposals that would have allowed General Chiwenga himself to assume power. General Chiwenga refused this offer and remained loyal to President Emmerson Mnangagwa during the coup. President Mnangagwa, by contrast, has demonstrated unwavering commitment to securing his own political future in a ruthless and Machiavellian way. Every major constitutional change, every strategic appointment, and every restructuring of the security establishment point in the same direction. His political objectives have been pursued with remarkable political discipline, patience, and clarity, coupled with an iron fist. Regardless of how objectionable his actions have been, he continues to execute them, and so far he has been succeeding. That is why I return to where I began. Zimbabwean politics has become a contest between reality and aspiration or delusion. Many continue to believe that somehow events will take a different course through a political messiah despite the evidence accumulating before them. But politics rewards those who deal with reality and political actors who are not scared of executing their plans, regardless of how controversial they are. It does not reward those who substitute objective reality with hope. Whatever one thinks of President Emmerson Mnangagwa or General Constantino Chiwenga, the evidence available today points overwhelmingly in one direction. Mnangagwa has spent years methodically consolidating power, while many of his opponents have spent those same years believing circumstances would somehow change in their favour. The other element that helped the ascension of President Emmerson Mnangagwa was the main opposition political party of the day, the MDC. Former Prime Minister and founding MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai and his successor, Nelson Chamisa, worked with Mnangagwa in sanitising the coup by putting their supporters on the streets to make it look like it was a popular uprising against the sickly geriatric leader, Robert Mugabe. Today, the opposition is in disarray, crippled and, in many cases, comfortably ensconced in ZANUPF pockets. To put it more accurately, it is in Emmerson Mnangagwa’s pockets. The country’s most popular opposition leader, Nelson Chamisa, has also made his position clear through one of his own parables on social media. In a recent post, he suggested that he would not allow himself to be made to write Paper Two, in other words, another military coup. His argument is based on the fact that the first military coup delivered nothing but grief for the opposition. The opposition was promised a lot of things and as the coup ended successfully, former Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa told Zimbabweans that it was a strictly ZANUPF affair. Chamisa believes that repeating the same approach, when there is already evidence of what the first coup produced, would be politically futile. He is therefore clearly not prepared to marshal his supporters onto the streets on behalf of one ZANUPF faction against another because he sees this primarily as an internal ZANUPF power struggle as he sees it. Another important element is that President Emmerson Mnangagwa has been able to create massive wealth through public procurement for a coterie of loyal political backers. That wealth has played a significant role in securing political favours, consolidating power, and extending influence across many facets of Zimbabwean society. Mnangagwa loyalists have publicly donated luxury vehicles and other expensive gifts to senior military commanders, universities, churches, celebrities, and many related key institutional figures. In the religious sector, which has millions of fanatic followers, influential church leaders have received financial support and gifts. In the entertainment industry, prominent musicians such as Jah Prayzah, Alick Macheso, and others have also received gifts from wealthy Mnangagwa loyalists who openly support President Mnangagwa’s political agenda to extend his term of office. Taken together, these patronage networks have helped consolidate political influence well beyond the structures of the state itself. The odds facing the Vice President are therefore enormous. Barring a miracle, his path to the presidency appears increasingly very difficult. The irony is that part of the political architecture he helped build over the past two decades has created the very climate of fear that now stands in his way. If he were ever to seek public mobilisation, many Zimbabweans would be reluctant to take to the streets because of the state’s historical response to protests, much of which occurred while he occupied positions of immense power in the security sector. The other risk is that, if nothing changes, he could eventually be dismissed. Some of his ardent supporters like Knox Chivero have already gone onto public social media platforms claiming that there are plans to remove him from office. That possibility does not surprise political analysts at all. At some point, Mnangagwa may conclude that there is little political value in retaining a deputy whom he believes has been politically and militarily neutralised. Many political analysts now say, barring a political miracle powered by a military coup, Chiwenga could ultimately find himself leaving office as an ordinary civilian. Any attempt to remove a government through a military coup carries enormous risks and requires tonnes of money, as we saw with the 2017 military coup, which was reportedly funded by fuel tycoon Kudakwashe Tagwirei. Such an attempt must succeed because, historically, failed coups often have severe, and sometimes fatal, consequences for those who participate in them. It is a kill-or-be-killed situation once it unfolds. So, Vice President Chiwenga finds himself in an extraordinarily difficult position. His own faction is looking to him to lead and deliver. At the same time, many opposition supporters who now feel politically orphaned, with no credible political home, are also looking to him in the hope that he can bring about change but are terrified of the streets. As all this drama unfolds, President Emmerson Mnangagwa continues to tighten his grip on power. Constitutional Amendment Bill No. 3 now sits on his desk awaiting his signature, and it could be signed into law at any moment. Yet, for General Chiwenga, this is a make-or-break moment. If the Bill is signed into law and the General does nothing, many will conclude that his political presidential ambitions have come to an undignified end. If he attempts to act and fails, he could place himself in mortal danger. And if he simply waits, the political outcome may ultimately be the same, he risks being removed once Mnangagwa concludes that he no longer serves a useful political purpose. Time, as always, will be the ultimate judge. Reality and aspiration are now facing each other, and we have not a long time left for the ultimate showdown, or, as many suspect, little resistance.

Hopewell Chin’ono

105,241 次观看 • 1 个月前

معلومات صادمة لبيروت بوليتيكس في تحرّك دبلوماسي غير مسبوق، أجرى سفراء دول الاتحاد الأوروبي السبع والعشرين، إلى جانب سفراء كندا، والمملكة المتحدة، والنرويج، وسويسرا، وأستراليا، سلسلة لقاءات مع كبار المسؤولين اللبنانيين، في مقدّمهم رئيس الحكومة نواف سلام ورئيس حزب القوات اللبنانية سمير جعجع، وذلك بين 7 و13 تموز. وبحسب المعلومات، فإن هذه الجولة ليست سوى البداية، إذ يُنتظر أن تشمل الأيام والأسابيع المقبلة سبع زيارات إضافية إلى مراجع سياسية ونيابية. الرسالة الغربية، وفق ما تنقله مصادر مطّلعة، كانت واضحة وحاسمة: ضرورة الإسراع في التوصل إلى اتفاق مع صندوق النقد الدولي. عدم الالتفاف على التعديلات المطلوبة في قانون إصلاح المصارف. وعدم إفراغ مشروع قانون الاستقرار المالي واسترداد الودائع من مضمونه الإصلاحي. وتؤكد المصادر أن هذا الحشد الدبلوماسي شدّد على ضرورة أن تأتي التشريعات اللبنانية مطابقة بالكامل لما يتم الاتفاق عليه مع صندوق النقد الدولي، من دون تعديلات تُفرغ الإصلاحات من أهدافها. ويأتي هذا التحرّك بعد انسحاب مصرف لبنان من مسار التفاوض مع الصندوق، وبالتزامن مع بدء مجلس النواب مناقشة التعديلات على قانون إصلاح المصارف. وبحسب معلومات خاصة حصلت عليها بيروت بوليتيكس، حملت اللقاءات رسالتين أساسيتين: الرسالة الأولى: عدم العبث بالتشريعات الإصلاحية أو محاولة الالتفاف عليها، لأن ذلك سيؤدي إلى إعادة إنتاج الأزمة نفسها التي يعيشها لبنان منذ سبع سنوات. الرسالة الثانية: لا تمويل دولياً حقيقياً للبنان، ولا استعادة للثقة، ولا عودة للاستثمارات، من دون اتفاق رسمي مع صندوق النقد الدولي. وتضيف المعلومات أن عدداً من السفراء يعتبرون أن بعض الجهات المعارضة للاتفاق مع الصندوق لا تنطلق من الحرص على أموال المودعين، التي تستمر قيمتها بالتآكل منذ سنوات، بل من اعتبارات تتعلق بالحفاظ على الصلاحيات والنفوذ، وحماية مصالح قوى مالية ومصرفية نافذة. وبحسب هذه المصادر، فإن القوى التي تعرقل الاتفاق لا تطرح أي بديل اقتصادي أو مالي قابل للتنفيذ. أما الخلاصة التي ينقلها عدد من السفراء والمؤسسات المالية الدولية، فهي أن استمرار تعطيل الاتفاق مع صندوق النقد قد يُبقي لبنان تحت وطأة تداعيات أزمته الاقتصادية لعشرين عاماً على الأقل. تبقى هذه المواقف منسوبة إلى مصادر دبلوماسية وإلى مؤسسات مالية دولية، لكنها تعكس حجم القلق الدولي من مسار الإصلاحات في لبنان. لقد أَعذر من أنذر. Shocking information obtained by Beirut Politics In an unprecedented diplomatic move, the ambassadors of the 27 European Union member states, along with the ambassadors of Canada, the United Kingdom, Norway, Switzerland, and Australia, held a series of meetings with senior Lebanese officials, including Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, between July 7 and July 13. According to the information, this round of meetings is only the beginning, with seven additional visits to political and parliamentary leaders expected in the coming days and weeks. According to informed sources, the Western message was clear and firm: The need to swiftly reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund. No circumvention of the required amendments to the Banking Reform Law. No weakening of the Financial Stability and Deposit Recovery Law by stripping it of its reform content. The sources confirmed that this broad diplomatic effort stressed that Lebanese legislation must fully comply with whatever is agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund, without amendments that would undermine the purpose of the reforms. This diplomatic initiative comes after Banque du Liban withdrew from the negotiation process with the IMF, while Parliament has begun discussing amendments to the Banking Reform Law. According to exclusive information obtained by Beirut Politics, the meetings carried two key messages: The first message: Do not tamper with reform legislation or attempt to circumvent it, because doing so would reproduce the very crisis Lebanon has been suffering from for the past seven years. The second message: There will be no meaningful international financing for Lebanon, no restoration of confidence, and no return of investments without a formal agreement with the International Monetary Fund. The information further states that several ambassadors believe some of the parties opposing an agreement with the IMF are not motivated by concern for depositors’ money, whose value continues to erode year after year, but rather by considerations related to preserving influence and authority, and protecting the interests of powerful financial and banking groups. According to these sources, the forces obstructing an agreement have failed to present any viable economic or financial alternative. The conclusion conveyed by several ambassadors and international financial institutions is that continued obstruction of an agreement with the IMF could leave Lebanon burdened by the consequences of its economic crisis for at least another twenty years. These positions remain attributed to diplomatic sources and international financial institutions, but they reflect the extent of international concern over the course of Lebanon’s reform process. Those who have warned have fulfilled their duty. Mounir Younès/منير يونس #لبنان #صندوق_النقد_الدولي #الإصلاحات #مجلس_النواب #المصارف #الاقتصاد #BeirutPolitics #Lebanon #IMF #Reforms #Parliament #Banking #Economy #BeirutPolitics
2:14

معلومات صادمة لبيروت بوليتيكس في تحرّك دبلوماسي غير مسبوق، أجرى سفراء دول الاتحاد الأوروبي السبع والعشرين، إلى جانب سفراء كندا، والمملكة المتحدة، والنرويج، وسويسرا، وأستراليا، سلسلة لقاءات مع كبار المسؤولين اللبنانيين، في مقدّمهم رئيس الحكومة نواف سلام ورئيس حزب القوات اللبنانية سمير جعجع، وذلك بين 7 و13 تموز. وبحسب المعلومات، فإن هذه الجولة ليست سوى البداية، إذ يُنتظر أن تشمل الأيام والأسابيع المقبلة سبع زيارات إضافية إلى مراجع سياسية ونيابية. الرسالة الغربية، وفق ما تنقله مصادر مطّلعة، كانت واضحة وحاسمة: ضرورة الإسراع في التوصل إلى اتفاق مع صندوق النقد الدولي. عدم الالتفاف على التعديلات المطلوبة في قانون إصلاح المصارف. وعدم إفراغ مشروع قانون الاستقرار المالي واسترداد الودائع من مضمونه الإصلاحي. وتؤكد المصادر أن هذا الحشد الدبلوماسي شدّد على ضرورة أن تأتي التشريعات اللبنانية مطابقة بالكامل لما يتم الاتفاق عليه مع صندوق النقد الدولي، من دون تعديلات تُفرغ الإصلاحات من أهدافها. ويأتي هذا التحرّك بعد انسحاب مصرف لبنان من مسار التفاوض مع الصندوق، وبالتزامن مع بدء مجلس النواب مناقشة التعديلات على قانون إصلاح المصارف. وبحسب معلومات خاصة حصلت عليها بيروت بوليتيكس، حملت اللقاءات رسالتين أساسيتين: الرسالة الأولى: عدم العبث بالتشريعات الإصلاحية أو محاولة الالتفاف عليها، لأن ذلك سيؤدي إلى إعادة إنتاج الأزمة نفسها التي يعيشها لبنان منذ سبع سنوات. الرسالة الثانية: لا تمويل دولياً حقيقياً للبنان، ولا استعادة للثقة، ولا عودة للاستثمارات، من دون اتفاق رسمي مع صندوق النقد الدولي. وتضيف المعلومات أن عدداً من السفراء يعتبرون أن بعض الجهات المعارضة للاتفاق مع الصندوق لا تنطلق من الحرص على أموال المودعين، التي تستمر قيمتها بالتآكل منذ سنوات، بل من اعتبارات تتعلق بالحفاظ على الصلاحيات والنفوذ، وحماية مصالح قوى مالية ومصرفية نافذة. وبحسب هذه المصادر، فإن القوى التي تعرقل الاتفاق لا تطرح أي بديل اقتصادي أو مالي قابل للتنفيذ. أما الخلاصة التي ينقلها عدد من السفراء والمؤسسات المالية الدولية، فهي أن استمرار تعطيل الاتفاق مع صندوق النقد قد يُبقي لبنان تحت وطأة تداعيات أزمته الاقتصادية لعشرين عاماً على الأقل. تبقى هذه المواقف منسوبة إلى مصادر دبلوماسية وإلى مؤسسات مالية دولية، لكنها تعكس حجم القلق الدولي من مسار الإصلاحات في لبنان. لقد أَعذر من أنذر. Shocking information obtained by Beirut Politics In an unprecedented diplomatic move, the ambassadors of the 27 European Union member states, along with the ambassadors of Canada, the United Kingdom, Norway, Switzerland, and Australia, held a series of meetings with senior Lebanese officials, including Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, between July 7 and July 13. According to the information, this round of meetings is only the beginning, with seven additional visits to political and parliamentary leaders expected in the coming days and weeks. According to informed sources, the Western message was clear and firm: The need to swiftly reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund. No circumvention of the required amendments to the Banking Reform Law. No weakening of the Financial Stability and Deposit Recovery Law by stripping it of its reform content. The sources confirmed that this broad diplomatic effort stressed that Lebanese legislation must fully comply with whatever is agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund, without amendments that would undermine the purpose of the reforms. This diplomatic initiative comes after Banque du Liban withdrew from the negotiation process with the IMF, while Parliament has begun discussing amendments to the Banking Reform Law. According to exclusive information obtained by Beirut Politics, the meetings carried two key messages: The first message: Do not tamper with reform legislation or attempt to circumvent it, because doing so would reproduce the very crisis Lebanon has been suffering from for the past seven years. The second message: There will be no meaningful international financing for Lebanon, no restoration of confidence, and no return of investments without a formal agreement with the International Monetary Fund. The information further states that several ambassadors believe some of the parties opposing an agreement with the IMF are not motivated by concern for depositors’ money, whose value continues to erode year after year, but rather by considerations related to preserving influence and authority, and protecting the interests of powerful financial and banking groups. According to these sources, the forces obstructing an agreement have failed to present any viable economic or financial alternative. The conclusion conveyed by several ambassadors and international financial institutions is that continued obstruction of an agreement with the IMF could leave Lebanon burdened by the consequences of its economic crisis for at least another twenty years. These positions remain attributed to diplomatic sources and international financial institutions, but they reflect the extent of international concern over the course of Lebanon’s reform process. Those who have warned have fulfilled their duty. Mounir Younès/منير يونس #لبنان #صندوق_النقد_الدولي #الإصلاحات #مجلس_النواب #المصارف #الاقتصاد #BeirutPolitics #Lebanon #IMF #Reforms #Parliament #Banking #Economy #BeirutPolitics

Beirut Politics

18,060 次观看 • 27 天前

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Scott Pio, Chairman of the Republican Party of Loudoun, Calls for Immediate Resignation of RPV Leadership Following Devastating 2025 Election Losses Leesburg, VA – November 10, 2025 – In the wake of the Republican Party's crushing defeats in Virginia's 2025 statewide elections, Scott Pio, Chairman of the Republican Party of Loudoun, today issued a urgent call for the immediate resignation of Mark Peake, Chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV), the executive leadership, and every member of the State Central Committee who has worked as a consultant or company in the last 5 years for any candidate or PAC in Virginia. This demand comes as Democrats swept the governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general races, marking a complete takeover of statewide executive offices and signaling a profound failure of RPV leadership. "The results of Tuesday's election are not just disappointing—they are a damning indictment of the RPV's entrenched leadership," said Scott Pio. "For too long, the RPV has operated as a dysfunctional entity, prioritizing personal gain and complacency over growth, strategy, and victory. The fault for these losses lies squarely at the feet of the current RPV Chairman, executive leadership, and State Central Committee members who have allowed the party to atrophy while Democrats built a formidable machine. If they had any sense of accountability, they would step down immediately to allow fresh, competent leadership to rebuild our party from the ground up." Scott Pio outlined the following reasons for the demanded resignations, each highlighting systemic failures under the current RPV leadership: • Current Vote Counts in Statewide Races: Due to the abysmal performance in the 2025 elections, where Democrat Abigail Spanberger defeated Republican Winsome Earle-Sears for Governor with approximately 57% to 42% of the vote; Democrat Ghazala Hashmi defeated Republican John Reid for Lieutenant Governor with roughly 55% to 44%; and Democrat Jay Jones defeated Republican Jason Miyares for Attorney General with about 52% to 46%. These lopsided results, with Republicans failing to break 50% in any statewide contest, reflect a complete strategic collapse and an inability to mobilize voters, directly attributable to the RPV's poor planning and execution. With the numbers as you see them below, Winsome would have had to perform at Donald Trump levels to defeat Abigail. Winsome would never have the chance to win unless the Republican Party is working to convert voters and grow the party. Glenn Youngkin would have lost against Abigail having it been a re-election. Republicans are outnumbered in Virginia. We MUST start converting and growing the party to overcome these odds, less we suffer the same fate as Oregon, Washington, California, Maryland and Pennsylvania. Winsome Sears – 1,434,133 Abigail Spanberger – 1,921,045 Donald Trump – 2,075,085 Kamala Harris – 2,335,395 Glenn Youngkin – 1,663,158 Terry McAuliffe – 1,599,470 • Loss of Confidence from Grassroots Leadership: Grassroots Republicans across Virginia have lost all faith in the RPV due to repeated betrayals and neglect. Local party chairs, volunteers, and activists feel abandoned, as the state leadership has prioritized insider dealings over empowering the base, leading to widespread disillusionment and low turnout that sealed our electoral fate. • Loss of Strategic Vision and Failure to Learn from 2017: The RPV has shown no ability to adapt since 2017, when Republicans squandered a supermajority in the House of Delegates, narrowly holding onto control before hemorrhaging nearly 30 seats over the ensuing decade. This pattern of complacency—ignoring shifting demographics, urban-suburban trends, and voter priorities—has turned Virginia from a battleground into a Democratic stronghold under the current leadership. Virginia will continue to be blue until we stop ignoring the shifting immigrant demographics. The idea that the RPV doesn’t have Instagram, YouTube or TikTok should show everyone that they seriously lack vision to persuade voters. If the RPV doesn’t start investing in converting voters, we will never be a Republican state again. • Mindset Against Party Growth: Rather than actively expanding the Republican tent through outreach and recruitment, RPV leaders have adopted a defeatist attitude, assuming existing voters would suffice without investment in new coalitions in the largest Indian, Arab and Latino minority communities. This shortsighted "wait and see" approach has allowed Democrats to outpace us in voter registration, permanent absentee registration and engagement, directly contributing to our statewide wipeout. If the statewide party continues to ignore the Arab, Indian and Latino voters, then it will forever lose Virginia. There is NO turning back if we shut those voters out of our American Freedom Party. • Ignoring Internal Polling Warnings: Internal statewide polling undoubtedly revealed the dire state of our campaigns months ago, yet leadership failed to pivot, allocate resources differently, or address vulnerabilities. This willful blindness to data and refusal to course-correct exemplifies a leadership team more interested in using old, tired techniques rather than winning. Their ineffective strategies of holding rally after rally in half empty halls while 1 mile away from polling precincts MUST come to an end. They should be kissing babies and shaking hands rather than standing on a stage. • Leaving Uncontested Seats: In a shocking display of negligence, the RPV left 15 seats uncontested in the 2025 House of Delegates elections and 20 in 2023, handing Democrats free wins and demoralizing potential candidates. This failure to field slates in all districts underscores a profound lack of recruitment effort and organizational incompetence. Enhanced data and technologies make this task rather easy while the voters suffer. Each House of Delegate seat represents nearly 60,000 voters. Ignoring 900,000 voters in 2025 and 1,200,000 voters in 2023 could be the difference between a statewide victory or statewide defeat. • Lack of Training and Resources for Candidates and Committees: RPV leadership has provided minimal training, funding, or logistical support to candidates and committees, leaving them to fend for themselves against well-resourced Democratic opponents. Without workshops on messaging, fundraising, or voter outreach, our nominees were set up for failure from the start. The consistent neglect of these foundational basic things, there is no wonder why seats go unfilled across the state. With the incredible lack of support for our candidates and committees, you must ask yourself if candidates or committees could even be effective? • Consultant-Plagued State Central Committee: With consultants making millions off our donors, candidates and committees, it is no wonder why they seek these elected positions of influence. The State Central Committee is riddled with consultants who view the party as a personal ATM, prioritizing lucrative contracts over electoral success. These self-serving members have blocked accountability measures and reforms, ensuring the RPV remains a gravy train rather than a winning operation while the executive director has taken over $700,000 in salary and reimbursements. The old adage that “No matter if the candidate wins or loses, the consultant keeps getting paid” rings true for our elected state central committee members. The conflict of interest in working for candidates while also being in an elected position capable of leading a ship is disgusting. • Uneven Support for Statewide Candidates: The RPV failed to deliver consistent, dedicated backing to all statewide candidates, favoring some while neglecting others. This fragmented approach left gaps in coordination, messaging, and fieldwork, allowing Democrats to dominate the narrative and airwaves. Every single House of Delegate candidate should be provided with the same exact support as other candidates. Every two years the RPV should be raising a war chest of cash to hand out “starter” checks to each of the 100 House of Delegate Candidates running for office. Whether it be $1,000, $2,500 or $5,000. Each candidate that is willing to run under the Republican flag deserves our support. • Deficiencies in Technology, Machinery, and Donor Relations: Without modern technology platforms, in house tools, user-friendly guides, or robust donor networks, the RPV has handicapped candidates statewide. Outdated systems and poor relationship management have resulted in inefficient operations and insufficient funding, putting Republicans at a severe disadvantage. Relying on consultants to do work that could be done in house wastes time and extremely valuable donor dollars. Without investments in machinery and technology, the RPV severely lacks the ability to compete against any opponent in this century. • Fundamentally Broken Organization: The RPV has failed to transform into a lean, mean activist machine, instead remaining bloated and bureaucratic. The RPV lacks real-world problem-solving expertise, with leaders disconnected from practical goal-setting and execution. This absence of professional management has turned the party into a relic, incapable of driving objectives like voter turnout, issue-based campaigns or goal setting outreach programs. The party should be driving goals and objectives weekly, month after month, year after year. • Failure to Leverage New Laws for Immigrant Outreach: Despite approximately 2,000,000 immigrant citizens calling Virginia home, the RPV has ignored opportunities under new state laws to engage and integrate these communities into our base. This missed chance to grow through targeted outreach represents a strategic blunder of epic proportions. The RPV should be engaging these communities weekly and supporting their causes, yet the RPV does zero community outreach. • Serious Lack of Messaging and Persuasion: The RPV has mandated itself NOT to talk policy or issues. Consultants tell candidates the less information that you share, the more chance a voter will like you. When faced with the blue media, blue messaging and blue onslaught of information, the RPV has mandated itself to remain silent. This serious miscalculation has allowed for the vacuum of communications to be managed and propagated by the left. Without a proper messaging flow like parental rights, 2nd amendment or the 1st amendment, how will voters ever know what Republicans stand for? • Unserious Leadership Exemplified by Mark Peake: State Senator Mark Peake's tenure as the Chairman of the Republican Party, marked by attending galas, posing for photos, and casually showing up on Election Day in a suit while walking his dog, epitomizes the RPV's lack of seriousness. Such performative gestures over substantive work has eroded credibility and contributed to our losses. His inability to think like an activist and drive an activist organization has caused serious damage to our work. Someone should have told Mark Peake that if he wants to be a Senator, then he can give speeches, attend galas and host parties. Activism is about real work, leading troops into battle and planning engagements. He is not an activist. While the Democratic blue wave was formidable, with sweeping victories across the board, Loudoun County Republicans bucked the trend. Under local leadership, we expanded our voter base countywide, increasing Republican vote counts even as statewide Republican turnout retracted. Voters in Loudoun rallied behind our message, proving that with effective strategy, outreach and engagement, growth is possible. If it can be achieved in Loudoun—a diverse, competitive county—it can be replicated statewide under the right leadership at the RPV. Scott Pio warned that if Mark Peake, the executive leadership and compromised State Central resignations do not occur within 30 days, he will personally spearhead "The Mount Vernon Project," modeled after Turning Point USA's successful campaign against the RNC. When Charlie Kirk mobilized to oust Ronna McDaniel and replace complacent RNC members, it revitalized the national party. Similarly, our Mount Vernon Project will launch a full-scale effort to unseat and replace every ineffective RPV leader, restoring accountability and vigor to the Republican Party of Virginia. Importantly, Scott Pio emphasized that the campaigns of Winsome Earle-Sears, John Reid, and Jason Miyares bear no blame for their defeats. These dedicated public servants ran principled races, but were undermined by the RPV's chronic lack of long-term strategic thinking and party-building efforts. The consequences of this leadership vacuum extend far beyond politics. Due to the RPV's inaction and lack of activism, Virginia's kids, families, and communities now face four years of unchecked Democratic rule. This will threaten our First Amendment freedoms through potential censorship and overreach, erode Second Amendment rights with aggressive gun control measures, parental rights, increase drug usage in our communities with legalization of drugs, and compromise public safety by prioritizing progressive policies over law and order. "The time for excuses is over," Scott Pio concluded. "Virginia Republicans deserve better. We demand resignations now to begin the hard work of rebuilding a party that fights—and wins—for conservative values." For more information, contact the Scott Pio, the Chairman of the Republican Party of Loudoun at 703-627-5272.
16:33

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Scott Pio, Chairman of the Republican Party of Loudoun, Calls for Immediate Resignation of RPV Leadership Following Devastating 2025 Election Losses Leesburg, VA – November 10, 2025 – In the wake of the Republican Party's crushing defeats in Virginia's 2025 statewide elections, Scott Pio, Chairman of the Republican Party of Loudoun, today issued a urgent call for the immediate resignation of Mark Peake, Chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV), the executive leadership, and every member of the State Central Committee who has worked as a consultant or company in the last 5 years for any candidate or PAC in Virginia. This demand comes as Democrats swept the governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general races, marking a complete takeover of statewide executive offices and signaling a profound failure of RPV leadership. "The results of Tuesday's election are not just disappointing—they are a damning indictment of the RPV's entrenched leadership," said Scott Pio. "For too long, the RPV has operated as a dysfunctional entity, prioritizing personal gain and complacency over growth, strategy, and victory. The fault for these losses lies squarely at the feet of the current RPV Chairman, executive leadership, and State Central Committee members who have allowed the party to atrophy while Democrats built a formidable machine. If they had any sense of accountability, they would step down immediately to allow fresh, competent leadership to rebuild our party from the ground up." Scott Pio outlined the following reasons for the demanded resignations, each highlighting systemic failures under the current RPV leadership: • Current Vote Counts in Statewide Races: Due to the abysmal performance in the 2025 elections, where Democrat Abigail Spanberger defeated Republican Winsome Earle-Sears for Governor with approximately 57% to 42% of the vote; Democrat Ghazala Hashmi defeated Republican John Reid for Lieutenant Governor with roughly 55% to 44%; and Democrat Jay Jones defeated Republican Jason Miyares for Attorney General with about 52% to 46%. These lopsided results, with Republicans failing to break 50% in any statewide contest, reflect a complete strategic collapse and an inability to mobilize voters, directly attributable to the RPV's poor planning and execution. With the numbers as you see them below, Winsome would have had to perform at Donald Trump levels to defeat Abigail. Winsome would never have the chance to win unless the Republican Party is working to convert voters and grow the party. Glenn Youngkin would have lost against Abigail having it been a re-election. Republicans are outnumbered in Virginia. We MUST start converting and growing the party to overcome these odds, less we suffer the same fate as Oregon, Washington, California, Maryland and Pennsylvania. Winsome Sears – 1,434,133 Abigail Spanberger – 1,921,045 Donald Trump – 2,075,085 Kamala Harris – 2,335,395 Glenn Youngkin – 1,663,158 Terry McAuliffe – 1,599,470 • Loss of Confidence from Grassroots Leadership: Grassroots Republicans across Virginia have lost all faith in the RPV due to repeated betrayals and neglect. Local party chairs, volunteers, and activists feel abandoned, as the state leadership has prioritized insider dealings over empowering the base, leading to widespread disillusionment and low turnout that sealed our electoral fate. • Loss of Strategic Vision and Failure to Learn from 2017: The RPV has shown no ability to adapt since 2017, when Republicans squandered a supermajority in the House of Delegates, narrowly holding onto control before hemorrhaging nearly 30 seats over the ensuing decade. This pattern of complacency—ignoring shifting demographics, urban-suburban trends, and voter priorities—has turned Virginia from a battleground into a Democratic stronghold under the current leadership. Virginia will continue to be blue until we stop ignoring the shifting immigrant demographics. The idea that the RPV doesn’t have Instagram, YouTube or TikTok should show everyone that they seriously lack vision to persuade voters. If the RPV doesn’t start investing in converting voters, we will never be a Republican state again. • Mindset Against Party Growth: Rather than actively expanding the Republican tent through outreach and recruitment, RPV leaders have adopted a defeatist attitude, assuming existing voters would suffice without investment in new coalitions in the largest Indian, Arab and Latino minority communities. This shortsighted "wait and see" approach has allowed Democrats to outpace us in voter registration, permanent absentee registration and engagement, directly contributing to our statewide wipeout. If the statewide party continues to ignore the Arab, Indian and Latino voters, then it will forever lose Virginia. There is NO turning back if we shut those voters out of our American Freedom Party. • Ignoring Internal Polling Warnings: Internal statewide polling undoubtedly revealed the dire state of our campaigns months ago, yet leadership failed to pivot, allocate resources differently, or address vulnerabilities. This willful blindness to data and refusal to course-correct exemplifies a leadership team more interested in using old, tired techniques rather than winning. Their ineffective strategies of holding rally after rally in half empty halls while 1 mile away from polling precincts MUST come to an end. They should be kissing babies and shaking hands rather than standing on a stage. • Leaving Uncontested Seats: In a shocking display of negligence, the RPV left 15 seats uncontested in the 2025 House of Delegates elections and 20 in 2023, handing Democrats free wins and demoralizing potential candidates. This failure to field slates in all districts underscores a profound lack of recruitment effort and organizational incompetence. Enhanced data and technologies make this task rather easy while the voters suffer. Each House of Delegate seat represents nearly 60,000 voters. Ignoring 900,000 voters in 2025 and 1,200,000 voters in 2023 could be the difference between a statewide victory or statewide defeat. • Lack of Training and Resources for Candidates and Committees: RPV leadership has provided minimal training, funding, or logistical support to candidates and committees, leaving them to fend for themselves against well-resourced Democratic opponents. Without workshops on messaging, fundraising, or voter outreach, our nominees were set up for failure from the start. The consistent neglect of these foundational basic things, there is no wonder why seats go unfilled across the state. With the incredible lack of support for our candidates and committees, you must ask yourself if candidates or committees could even be effective? • Consultant-Plagued State Central Committee: With consultants making millions off our donors, candidates and committees, it is no wonder why they seek these elected positions of influence. The State Central Committee is riddled with consultants who view the party as a personal ATM, prioritizing lucrative contracts over electoral success. These self-serving members have blocked accountability measures and reforms, ensuring the RPV remains a gravy train rather than a winning operation while the executive director has taken over $700,000 in salary and reimbursements. The old adage that “No matter if the candidate wins or loses, the consultant keeps getting paid” rings true for our elected state central committee members. The conflict of interest in working for candidates while also being in an elected position capable of leading a ship is disgusting. • Uneven Support for Statewide Candidates: The RPV failed to deliver consistent, dedicated backing to all statewide candidates, favoring some while neglecting others. This fragmented approach left gaps in coordination, messaging, and fieldwork, allowing Democrats to dominate the narrative and airwaves. Every single House of Delegate candidate should be provided with the same exact support as other candidates. Every two years the RPV should be raising a war chest of cash to hand out “starter” checks to each of the 100 House of Delegate Candidates running for office. Whether it be $1,000, $2,500 or $5,000. Each candidate that is willing to run under the Republican flag deserves our support. • Deficiencies in Technology, Machinery, and Donor Relations: Without modern technology platforms, in house tools, user-friendly guides, or robust donor networks, the RPV has handicapped candidates statewide. Outdated systems and poor relationship management have resulted in inefficient operations and insufficient funding, putting Republicans at a severe disadvantage. Relying on consultants to do work that could be done in house wastes time and extremely valuable donor dollars. Without investments in machinery and technology, the RPV severely lacks the ability to compete against any opponent in this century. • Fundamentally Broken Organization: The RPV has failed to transform into a lean, mean activist machine, instead remaining bloated and bureaucratic. The RPV lacks real-world problem-solving expertise, with leaders disconnected from practical goal-setting and execution. This absence of professional management has turned the party into a relic, incapable of driving objectives like voter turnout, issue-based campaigns or goal setting outreach programs. The party should be driving goals and objectives weekly, month after month, year after year. • Failure to Leverage New Laws for Immigrant Outreach: Despite approximately 2,000,000 immigrant citizens calling Virginia home, the RPV has ignored opportunities under new state laws to engage and integrate these communities into our base. This missed chance to grow through targeted outreach represents a strategic blunder of epic proportions. The RPV should be engaging these communities weekly and supporting their causes, yet the RPV does zero community outreach. • Serious Lack of Messaging and Persuasion: The RPV has mandated itself NOT to talk policy or issues. Consultants tell candidates the less information that you share, the more chance a voter will like you. When faced with the blue media, blue messaging and blue onslaught of information, the RPV has mandated itself to remain silent. This serious miscalculation has allowed for the vacuum of communications to be managed and propagated by the left. Without a proper messaging flow like parental rights, 2nd amendment or the 1st amendment, how will voters ever know what Republicans stand for? • Unserious Leadership Exemplified by Mark Peake: State Senator Mark Peake's tenure as the Chairman of the Republican Party, marked by attending galas, posing for photos, and casually showing up on Election Day in a suit while walking his dog, epitomizes the RPV's lack of seriousness. Such performative gestures over substantive work has eroded credibility and contributed to our losses. His inability to think like an activist and drive an activist organization has caused serious damage to our work. Someone should have told Mark Peake that if he wants to be a Senator, then he can give speeches, attend galas and host parties. Activism is about real work, leading troops into battle and planning engagements. He is not an activist. While the Democratic blue wave was formidable, with sweeping victories across the board, Loudoun County Republicans bucked the trend. Under local leadership, we expanded our voter base countywide, increasing Republican vote counts even as statewide Republican turnout retracted. Voters in Loudoun rallied behind our message, proving that with effective strategy, outreach and engagement, growth is possible. If it can be achieved in Loudoun—a diverse, competitive county—it can be replicated statewide under the right leadership at the RPV. Scott Pio warned that if Mark Peake, the executive leadership and compromised State Central resignations do not occur within 30 days, he will personally spearhead "The Mount Vernon Project," modeled after Turning Point USA's successful campaign against the RNC. When Charlie Kirk mobilized to oust Ronna McDaniel and replace complacent RNC members, it revitalized the national party. Similarly, our Mount Vernon Project will launch a full-scale effort to unseat and replace every ineffective RPV leader, restoring accountability and vigor to the Republican Party of Virginia. Importantly, Scott Pio emphasized that the campaigns of Winsome Earle-Sears, John Reid, and Jason Miyares bear no blame for their defeats. These dedicated public servants ran principled races, but were undermined by the RPV's chronic lack of long-term strategic thinking and party-building efforts. The consequences of this leadership vacuum extend far beyond politics. Due to the RPV's inaction and lack of activism, Virginia's kids, families, and communities now face four years of unchecked Democratic rule. This will threaten our First Amendment freedoms through potential censorship and overreach, erode Second Amendment rights with aggressive gun control measures, parental rights, increase drug usage in our communities with legalization of drugs, and compromise public safety by prioritizing progressive policies over law and order. "The time for excuses is over," Scott Pio concluded. "Virginia Republicans deserve better. We demand resignations now to begin the hard work of rebuilding a party that fights—and wins—for conservative values." For more information, contact the Scott Pio, the Chairman of the Republican Party of Loudoun at 703-627-5272.

Scott Pio

109,865 次观看 • 9 个月前

Billion-Dollar Data Centers Are Taking Over the World | Lauren Goode, WIRED When Sam Altman said one year ago that OpenAI’s Roman Empire is the actual Roman Empire, he wasn’t kidding. In the same way that the Romans gradually amassed an empire of land spanning three continents and one-ninth of the Earth’s circumference, the CEO and his cohort are now dotting the planet with their own latifundia—not agricultural estates, but AI data centers. Tech executives like Altman, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, and Oracle cofounder Larry Ellison are fully bought in to the idea that the future of the American (and possibly global) economy are these new warehouses stocked with IT infrastructure. But data centers, of course, aren’t actually new. In the earliest days of computing there were giant power-sucking mainframes in climate-controlled rooms, with co-ax cables moving information from the mainframe to a terminal computer. Then the consumer internet boom of the late 1990s spawned a new era of infrastructure. Massive buildings began popping up in the backyard of Washington, DC, with racks and racks of computers that stored and processed data for tech companies. A decade later, “the cloud” became the squishy infrastructure of the internet. Storage got cheaper. Some companies, like Amazon, capitalized on this. Giant data centers continued to proliferate, but instead of a tech company using some combination of on-premise servers and rented data center racks, they offloaded their computing needs to a bunch of virtualized environments. (“What is the cloud?” a perfectly intelligent family member asked me in the mid-2010s, “and why am I paying for 17 different subscriptions to it?”) All the while tech companies were hoovering up petabytes of data, data that people willingly shared online, in enterprise workspaces, and through mobile apps. Firms began finding new ways to mine and structure this “Big Data,” and promised that it would change lives. In many ways, it did. You had to know where this was going. Now the tech industry is in the fever-dream days of generative AI, which requires new levels of computing resources. Big Data is tired; big data centers are here, and wired—for AI. Faster, more efficient chips are needed to power AI data centers, and chipmakers like Nvidia and AMD have been jumping up and down on the proverbial couch, proclaiming their love for AI. The industry has entered an unprecedented era of capital investments in AI infrastructure, tilting the US into positive GDP territory. These are massive, swirling deals that might as well be cocktail party handshakes, greased with gigawatts and exuberance, while the rest of us try to track real contracts and dollars. OpenAI, Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, and SoftBank have struck some of the biggest deals. This year an earlier supercomputing project between OpenAI and Microsoft, called Stargate, became the vehicle for a massive AI infrastructure project in the US. (President Donald Trump called it the largest AI infrastructure project in history, because of course he did, but that may not have been hyperbolic.) Altman, Ellison, and SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son were all in on the deal, pledging $100 billion to start, with plans to invest up to $500 billion into Stargate in the coming years. Nvidia GPUs would be deployed. Later, in July, OpenAI and Oracle announced an additional Stargate partnership—SoftBank curiously absent—measured in gigawatts of capacity (4.5) and expected job creation (around 100,000). Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta have also shared plans for multibillion-dollar data projects. Microsoft said at the start of 2025 that it was on track to invest “approximately $80 billion to build out AI-enabled data centers to train AI models and deploy AI and cloud-based applications around the world.” Then, in September, Nvidia said it would invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, provided that OpenAI made good on a deal to use up to 10 gigawatts of Nvidia’s systems for OpenAI’s infrastructure plans, which means essentially that OpenAI has to pay Nvidia in order to get paid by Nvidia. The following month AMD said it would give OpenAI as much as 10 percent of the chip company if OpenAI purchased and deployed up to 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs between now and 2030. It’s the circular nature of these investments that have the general public, and bearish analysts, wondering if we’re headed for an AI bubble burst. What’s clear is that the near-term downstream effects of these data center build-outs are real. The energy, resource, and labor demands of AI infrastructure are enormous. By some estimates, worldwide AI energy demand is set to surpass demand from bitcoin mining by the end of this year, WIRED has reported. The processors in data centers run hot and need to be cooled, so big tech companies are pulling from municipal water supplies to make that happen—and aren’t always disclosing how much water they’re using. Local wells are running dry or seem unsafe to drink from. Residents who live near data center construction sites are noting that traffic delays, and in some cases car crashes, are increasing. One corner of Richland Parish, Louisiana, home of Meta’s $27 billion Hyperion data center, has seen a 600 percent spike in vehicle crashes this year. Major proponents of AI seem to suggest that all of this will be worth it. Few top tech executives will publicly entertain the notion that this might be an overshoot, either ecologically or economically. “Emphatically … no,” Lisa Su, the chief executive of AMD, said earlier this month when asked if the AI froth has runneth over. Su, like other execs, cited overwhelming demand for AI as justification for these enormous capital expenditures. Demand from whom? Harder to pin down. In their mind, it’s everyone. All of us. The 800 million people who use ChatGPT on a weekly basis. The evolution from those 1990s data centers to the 2000s era of cloud computing to new AI data centers wasn’t just one continuum. The world has concurrently moved from the tiny internet to the big internet to the AI internet, and realistically speaking, there’s no going back. Generative AI is out of the bottle. The Sams and Jensens and Larrys and Lisas of the world aren’t wrong about this. It doesn’t mean they aren’t wrong about the math, though. About their economic predictions. Or their ideas about AI-powered productivity and the labor market. Or the availability of natural and material resources for these data centers. Or who will come once they build them. Or the timing of it all. Even Rome eventually collapsed.
2:23

Billion-Dollar Data Centers Are Taking Over the World | Lauren Goode, WIRED When Sam Altman said one year ago that OpenAI’s Roman Empire is the actual Roman Empire, he wasn’t kidding. In the same way that the Romans gradually amassed an empire of land spanning three continents and one-ninth of the Earth’s circumference, the CEO and his cohort are now dotting the planet with their own latifundia—not agricultural estates, but AI data centers. Tech executives like Altman, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, and Oracle cofounder Larry Ellison are fully bought in to the idea that the future of the American (and possibly global) economy are these new warehouses stocked with IT infrastructure. But data centers, of course, aren’t actually new. In the earliest days of computing there were giant power-sucking mainframes in climate-controlled rooms, with co-ax cables moving information from the mainframe to a terminal computer. Then the consumer internet boom of the late 1990s spawned a new era of infrastructure. Massive buildings began popping up in the backyard of Washington, DC, with racks and racks of computers that stored and processed data for tech companies. A decade later, “the cloud” became the squishy infrastructure of the internet. Storage got cheaper. Some companies, like Amazon, capitalized on this. Giant data centers continued to proliferate, but instead of a tech company using some combination of on-premise servers and rented data center racks, they offloaded their computing needs to a bunch of virtualized environments. (“What is the cloud?” a perfectly intelligent family member asked me in the mid-2010s, “and why am I paying for 17 different subscriptions to it?”) All the while tech companies were hoovering up petabytes of data, data that people willingly shared online, in enterprise workspaces, and through mobile apps. Firms began finding new ways to mine and structure this “Big Data,” and promised that it would change lives. In many ways, it did. You had to know where this was going. Now the tech industry is in the fever-dream days of generative AI, which requires new levels of computing resources. Big Data is tired; big data centers are here, and wired—for AI. Faster, more efficient chips are needed to power AI data centers, and chipmakers like Nvidia and AMD have been jumping up and down on the proverbial couch, proclaiming their love for AI. The industry has entered an unprecedented era of capital investments in AI infrastructure, tilting the US into positive GDP territory. These are massive, swirling deals that might as well be cocktail party handshakes, greased with gigawatts and exuberance, while the rest of us try to track real contracts and dollars. OpenAI, Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, and SoftBank have struck some of the biggest deals. This year an earlier supercomputing project between OpenAI and Microsoft, called Stargate, became the vehicle for a massive AI infrastructure project in the US. (President Donald Trump called it the largest AI infrastructure project in history, because of course he did, but that may not have been hyperbolic.) Altman, Ellison, and SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son were all in on the deal, pledging $100 billion to start, with plans to invest up to $500 billion into Stargate in the coming years. Nvidia GPUs would be deployed. Later, in July, OpenAI and Oracle announced an additional Stargate partnership—SoftBank curiously absent—measured in gigawatts of capacity (4.5) and expected job creation (around 100,000). Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta have also shared plans for multibillion-dollar data projects. Microsoft said at the start of 2025 that it was on track to invest “approximately $80 billion to build out AI-enabled data centers to train AI models and deploy AI and cloud-based applications around the world.” Then, in September, Nvidia said it would invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, provided that OpenAI made good on a deal to use up to 10 gigawatts of Nvidia’s systems for OpenAI’s infrastructure plans, which means essentially that OpenAI has to pay Nvidia in order to get paid by Nvidia. The following month AMD said it would give OpenAI as much as 10 percent of the chip company if OpenAI purchased and deployed up to 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs between now and 2030. It’s the circular nature of these investments that have the general public, and bearish analysts, wondering if we’re headed for an AI bubble burst. What’s clear is that the near-term downstream effects of these data center build-outs are real. The energy, resource, and labor demands of AI infrastructure are enormous. By some estimates, worldwide AI energy demand is set to surpass demand from bitcoin mining by the end of this year, WIRED has reported. The processors in data centers run hot and need to be cooled, so big tech companies are pulling from municipal water supplies to make that happen—and aren’t always disclosing how much water they’re using. Local wells are running dry or seem unsafe to drink from. Residents who live near data center construction sites are noting that traffic delays, and in some cases car crashes, are increasing. One corner of Richland Parish, Louisiana, home of Meta’s $27 billion Hyperion data center, has seen a 600 percent spike in vehicle crashes this year. Major proponents of AI seem to suggest that all of this will be worth it. Few top tech executives will publicly entertain the notion that this might be an overshoot, either ecologically or economically. “Emphatically … no,” Lisa Su, the chief executive of AMD, said earlier this month when asked if the AI froth has runneth over. Su, like other execs, cited overwhelming demand for AI as justification for these enormous capital expenditures. Demand from whom? Harder to pin down. In their mind, it’s everyone. All of us. The 800 million people who use ChatGPT on a weekly basis. The evolution from those 1990s data centers to the 2000s era of cloud computing to new AI data centers wasn’t just one continuum. The world has concurrently moved from the tiny internet to the big internet to the AI internet, and realistically speaking, there’s no going back. Generative AI is out of the bottle. The Sams and Jensens and Larrys and Lisas of the world aren’t wrong about this. It doesn’t mean they aren’t wrong about the math, though. About their economic predictions. Or their ideas about AI-powered productivity and the labor market. Or the availability of natural and material resources for these data centers. Or who will come once they build them. Or the timing of it all. Even Rome eventually collapsed.

Owen Gregorian

55,427 次观看 • 7 个月前

BEARISH ON OPENAI The investment case for OpenAI has never been more precarious than it is right now in late 2025. What was once a company that seemed destined to dominate the artificial intelligence revolution has revealed itself to be a structurally disadvantaged challenger fighting a defensive war on multiple fronts. The company anticipates burning through roughly $9 billion this year on $13 billion in sales, a cash burn rate of approximately 70% of revenue. This is not the profile of a company poised to capture monopolistic profits from a transformative technology; it is the profile of a utility company spending astronomical sums to deliver a commodity product that competitors are increasingly giving away for free. The financial trajectory only becomes more alarming when examined over a longer time horizon. The documents show OpenAI projects that by 2028, its operating losses will balloon to roughly three-quarters of that year’s revenue, driven primarily by ballooning spending on computing costs. The company has painted a rosy picture of eventual profitability by 2029 or 2030, but this projection requires believing that OpenAI can grow revenue from roughly $13 billion today to $125 billion or more while simultaneously maintaining pricing power in a market where every major technology company and numerous startups are racing to commoditize the very product OpenAI sells. The cash burn is expected to reach $115 billion cumulatively through 2029, according to The Information. These numbers represent a staggering bet that requires near-perfect execution across multiple dimensions over half a decade. The most damning evidence against OpenAI’s long-term viability is the evaporation of its technological moat. In 2023, GPT-4 felt like genuine magic, a capability that no other company could replicate. Today, that lead has effectively vanished. The sudden availability of frontier-level open-source models is expected to dramatically accelerate AI development globally, potentially reshaping entire industries and altering the balance of power in the tech world. Meta’s Llama series, Mistral’s increasingly capable models, and even Chinese competitors like DeepSeek have demonstrated that the core technology powering ChatGPT is replicable and, in many cases, distributable for free. When your product becomes commoditized, the economics become brutal, and OpenAI finds itself in the position of trying to sell bottled water in a world where tap water has become indistinguishable in quality. The competitive pressure from open-source alternatives is compounding rapidly. The open source movement in AI has grown exponentially over the past few years. Instead of relying solely on expensive, closed models from major tech companies, developers and researchers worldwide can now access, modify, and improve upon state-of-the-art LLMs. This democratization is existential for OpenAI’s business model. Enterprises that once paid premium prices for API access now have the option to run comparable models on their own infrastructure at a fraction of the cost, with the added benefits of data privacy and customization. The value proposition that justified OpenAI’s premium pricing has eroded faster than anyone anticipated, and there is no indication that this trend will reverse. Perhaps nothing illustrates OpenAI’s structural weakness more clearly than the behavior of its most important partner. Microsoft is dancing to its own tune in the artificial intelligence revolution, and Wall Street cannot stop watching. Despite pouring approximately $13 billion into OpenAI over several years, DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria estimates that just 17 percent of Microsoft’s total Azure revenue comes from artificial intelligence workloads. More critically, only 6 percent of that total ties directly to reselling OpenAI’s models, while approximately 75 percent is generated from Azure AI. Microsoft is building its own models, hedging with Anthropic, and quietly reducing its dependency on the very company it funded. When your largest investor is simultaneously your biggest competitor and is actively developing alternatives to your core product, the strategic implications are dire. Leaders at Microsoft believe Anthropic’s latest models — Claude Sonnet 4, specifically — perform better than OpenAI’s in certain functions, like creating aesthetically pleasing PowerPoint presentations. This is not a minor technical preference; it represents a fundamental shift in how Microsoft views its partnership with OpenAI. Microsoft is dramatically escalating its AI independence strategy. At an internal town hall Thursday, Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman revealed the company is making “significant investments” in compute capacity to build frontier models that can compete directly with OpenAI, Google, and Meta. The company that was supposed to be OpenAI’s path to distribution and scale is instead preparing for a future where OpenAI is just one vendor among many, if not an outright competitor. The leadership exodus at OpenAI over the past year has been nothing short of catastrophic. In September 2024, Murati announced that she was stepping down as CTO. This move came amid a wider executive exodus as OpenAI chief research officer Bob McGrew and a vice president of research, Barret Zoph, also announced their departures soon after. Mira Murati was not a minor figure; she was instrumental in the development of ChatGPT, Dall-E, and Sora. Her departure, along with co-founder Ilya Sutskever, safety leader Jan Leike, and co-founder John Schulman who joined rival Anthropic, has left CEO Sam Altman without much of the leadership team that helped him build OpenAI into an AI juggernaut. Hannah Wong, the executive who steered OpenAI through its most chaotic period, has announced she’s leaving the company just this month, continuing the pattern of senior departures that suggests something fundamentally broken in the organization’s culture or direction. The distribution problem facing OpenAI may be its most insurmountable challenge. Apple and Google control the smartphones that billions of people use every day. Microsoft controls the productivity software that enterprises depend upon. OpenAI, by contrast, must convince users to deliberately open a separate application and type their queries into a text box. In a world of agentic AI where assistants need access to your email, calendar, and files to be useful, an AI embedded directly into your operating system has an overwhelming structural advantage over a standalone chatbot. OpenAI is trying to be a consumer product company without owning any of the surfaces where consumers actually spend their time, competing against incumbents who can simply bundle AI capabilities directly into products that already have hundreds of millions of daily active users. The nuclear-to-solar analogy captures the fundamental economic transformation that is devastating OpenAI’s business model. Just as nuclear power required enormous upfront capital expenditure for centralized power plants, AI in its current form requires massive data center investments to train and serve models. But the direction of travel is unmistakably toward distributed intelligence that runs locally on devices. A major part of the pitch is practicality. Lample emphasizes that Ministral 3 can run on a single GPU, making it deployable on affordable hardware — from on-premise servers to laptops, robots, and other edge devices that may have limited connectivity. When powerful AI models can run on a smartphone or a laptop without any cloud connection, the entire economic rationale for paying premium prices to access centralized AI infrastructure disappears. OpenAI is building nuclear reactors in a world that is rapidly installing solar panels on every rooftop. The proposed $1 trillion IPO valuation is perhaps the clearest signal that something is deeply wrong with the OpenAI story. In the first half of the year, OpenAI lost $13.5 billion, on revenue of $4.3 billion. It is on track to lose $27 billion for the year. One estimate shows OpenAI will burn $115 billion by 2029. Asking public market investors to pay $1 trillion for a company that loses more than twice as much as it earns is not a growth story; it is an exit strategy. The sophisticated investors who funded OpenAI’s private rounds are looking for a way to transfer their risk to retail investors and pension funds who may not fully understand the unit economics of the business. A recent report by HSBC estimated that the company will remain in the unprofitable category until 2029 and that the company will need an additional $207 billion to fund its ambitions. Sam Altman’s leadership represents another structural liability for the company. His background is as a startup investor and evangelist, not as an operational executive who has scaled a capital-intensive industrial operation. The pivot from nonprofit research lab to for-profit corporation to public benefit corporation to anticipated public company has been accompanied by legal and governance structures designed primarily to protect Altman’s control rather than to create shareholder value. Going public means answering a lot more of those kinds of questions, every single quarter, forever. When asked about financial concerns in a friendly podcast interview, Altman’s dismissive response revealed a leader uncomfortable with the scrutiny that public markets will inevitably bring. The adults in the room have largely departed, leaving a company that desperately needs disciplined execution led by someone whose strengths lie elsewhere. The comparison to Netscape is instructive. Netscape proved that the internet was real and created genuine value, but it had no sustainable moat against an incumbent who could bundle the browser directly into the operating system. OpenAI has proven that large language models are real and valuable, but it faces the same structural disadvantage against incumbents who can bundle AI directly into operating systems, productivity suites, and cloud platforms. The value will accrue to the companies that own the distribution channels and the hardware, not to the company that demonstrated the technology was possible. OpenAI is destined to become a historical footnote, remembered as the company that ignited the AI revolution but failed to capture the economic value it created. The only bull case for OpenAI is the AGI lottery ticket: the possibility that the company achieves artificial general intelligence before anyone else and thereby transcends all normal economic analysis. But there is no evidence that OpenAI is any closer to AGI than Google, Anthropic, or DeepMind. The company’s advantage was never secret research breakthroughs; it was first-mover advantage in commercialization. That advantage has now been erased by competitors who can match or exceed OpenAI’s capabilities while benefiting from existing ecosystems, distribution channels, and the willingness to operate AI as a loss leader to drive engagement with more profitable products. The secret sauce was never secret, and there was never any sauce. The endgame for OpenAI is unlikely to be the triumphant dominance that early investors imagined. The most probable outcomes range from gradual irrelevance as a backend provider, to financial restructuring under pressure from creditors, to absorption by Microsoft or another well-capitalized technology company looking to acquire the remaining talent and intellectual property at a discount. Despite its current losses, OpenAI’s long-term prospects are bolstered by the explosive growth of the AI market. But growth in the overall AI market does not guarantee success for any individual company, particularly one with no moat, no ecosystem, and a cost structure that requires selling a commodity at premium prices. The AI revolution is real, but OpenAI’s role in capturing its economic value is far from assured. For anyone considering an investment in OpenAI at anything close to current valuations, the prudent course is to stay far away and watch from the sidelines as economic reality catches up with hype.
19:01

BEARISH ON OPENAI The investment case for OpenAI has never been more precarious than it is right now in late 2025. What was once a company that seemed destined to dominate the artificial intelligence revolution has revealed itself to be a structurally disadvantaged challenger fighting a defensive war on multiple fronts. The company anticipates burning through roughly $9 billion this year on $13 billion in sales, a cash burn rate of approximately 70% of revenue. This is not the profile of a company poised to capture monopolistic profits from a transformative technology; it is the profile of a utility company spending astronomical sums to deliver a commodity product that competitors are increasingly giving away for free. The financial trajectory only becomes more alarming when examined over a longer time horizon. The documents show OpenAI projects that by 2028, its operating losses will balloon to roughly three-quarters of that year’s revenue, driven primarily by ballooning spending on computing costs. The company has painted a rosy picture of eventual profitability by 2029 or 2030, but this projection requires believing that OpenAI can grow revenue from roughly $13 billion today to $125 billion or more while simultaneously maintaining pricing power in a market where every major technology company and numerous startups are racing to commoditize the very product OpenAI sells. The cash burn is expected to reach $115 billion cumulatively through 2029, according to The Information. These numbers represent a staggering bet that requires near-perfect execution across multiple dimensions over half a decade. The most damning evidence against OpenAI’s long-term viability is the evaporation of its technological moat. In 2023, GPT-4 felt like genuine magic, a capability that no other company could replicate. Today, that lead has effectively vanished. The sudden availability of frontier-level open-source models is expected to dramatically accelerate AI development globally, potentially reshaping entire industries and altering the balance of power in the tech world. Meta’s Llama series, Mistral’s increasingly capable models, and even Chinese competitors like DeepSeek have demonstrated that the core technology powering ChatGPT is replicable and, in many cases, distributable for free. When your product becomes commoditized, the economics become brutal, and OpenAI finds itself in the position of trying to sell bottled water in a world where tap water has become indistinguishable in quality. The competitive pressure from open-source alternatives is compounding rapidly. The open source movement in AI has grown exponentially over the past few years. Instead of relying solely on expensive, closed models from major tech companies, developers and researchers worldwide can now access, modify, and improve upon state-of-the-art LLMs. This democratization is existential for OpenAI’s business model. Enterprises that once paid premium prices for API access now have the option to run comparable models on their own infrastructure at a fraction of the cost, with the added benefits of data privacy and customization. The value proposition that justified OpenAI’s premium pricing has eroded faster than anyone anticipated, and there is no indication that this trend will reverse. Perhaps nothing illustrates OpenAI’s structural weakness more clearly than the behavior of its most important partner. Microsoft is dancing to its own tune in the artificial intelligence revolution, and Wall Street cannot stop watching. Despite pouring approximately $13 billion into OpenAI over several years, DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria estimates that just 17 percent of Microsoft’s total Azure revenue comes from artificial intelligence workloads. More critically, only 6 percent of that total ties directly to reselling OpenAI’s models, while approximately 75 percent is generated from Azure AI. Microsoft is building its own models, hedging with Anthropic, and quietly reducing its dependency on the very company it funded. When your largest investor is simultaneously your biggest competitor and is actively developing alternatives to your core product, the strategic implications are dire. Leaders at Microsoft believe Anthropic’s latest models — Claude Sonnet 4, specifically — perform better than OpenAI’s in certain functions, like creating aesthetically pleasing PowerPoint presentations. This is not a minor technical preference; it represents a fundamental shift in how Microsoft views its partnership with OpenAI. Microsoft is dramatically escalating its AI independence strategy. At an internal town hall Thursday, Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman revealed the company is making “significant investments” in compute capacity to build frontier models that can compete directly with OpenAI, Google, and Meta. The company that was supposed to be OpenAI’s path to distribution and scale is instead preparing for a future where OpenAI is just one vendor among many, if not an outright competitor. The leadership exodus at OpenAI over the past year has been nothing short of catastrophic. In September 2024, Murati announced that she was stepping down as CTO. This move came amid a wider executive exodus as OpenAI chief research officer Bob McGrew and a vice president of research, Barret Zoph, also announced their departures soon after. Mira Murati was not a minor figure; she was instrumental in the development of ChatGPT, Dall-E, and Sora. Her departure, along with co-founder Ilya Sutskever, safety leader Jan Leike, and co-founder John Schulman who joined rival Anthropic, has left CEO Sam Altman without much of the leadership team that helped him build OpenAI into an AI juggernaut. Hannah Wong, the executive who steered OpenAI through its most chaotic period, has announced she’s leaving the company just this month, continuing the pattern of senior departures that suggests something fundamentally broken in the organization’s culture or direction. The distribution problem facing OpenAI may be its most insurmountable challenge. Apple and Google control the smartphones that billions of people use every day. Microsoft controls the productivity software that enterprises depend upon. OpenAI, by contrast, must convince users to deliberately open a separate application and type their queries into a text box. In a world of agentic AI where assistants need access to your email, calendar, and files to be useful, an AI embedded directly into your operating system has an overwhelming structural advantage over a standalone chatbot. OpenAI is trying to be a consumer product company without owning any of the surfaces where consumers actually spend their time, competing against incumbents who can simply bundle AI capabilities directly into products that already have hundreds of millions of daily active users. The nuclear-to-solar analogy captures the fundamental economic transformation that is devastating OpenAI’s business model. Just as nuclear power required enormous upfront capital expenditure for centralized power plants, AI in its current form requires massive data center investments to train and serve models. But the direction of travel is unmistakably toward distributed intelligence that runs locally on devices. A major part of the pitch is practicality. Lample emphasizes that Ministral 3 can run on a single GPU, making it deployable on affordable hardware — from on-premise servers to laptops, robots, and other edge devices that may have limited connectivity. When powerful AI models can run on a smartphone or a laptop without any cloud connection, the entire economic rationale for paying premium prices to access centralized AI infrastructure disappears. OpenAI is building nuclear reactors in a world that is rapidly installing solar panels on every rooftop. The proposed $1 trillion IPO valuation is perhaps the clearest signal that something is deeply wrong with the OpenAI story. In the first half of the year, OpenAI lost $13.5 billion, on revenue of $4.3 billion. It is on track to lose $27 billion for the year. One estimate shows OpenAI will burn $115 billion by 2029. Asking public market investors to pay $1 trillion for a company that loses more than twice as much as it earns is not a growth story; it is an exit strategy. The sophisticated investors who funded OpenAI’s private rounds are looking for a way to transfer their risk to retail investors and pension funds who may not fully understand the unit economics of the business. A recent report by HSBC estimated that the company will remain in the unprofitable category until 2029 and that the company will need an additional $207 billion to fund its ambitions. Sam Altman’s leadership represents another structural liability for the company. His background is as a startup investor and evangelist, not as an operational executive who has scaled a capital-intensive industrial operation. The pivot from nonprofit research lab to for-profit corporation to public benefit corporation to anticipated public company has been accompanied by legal and governance structures designed primarily to protect Altman’s control rather than to create shareholder value. Going public means answering a lot more of those kinds of questions, every single quarter, forever. When asked about financial concerns in a friendly podcast interview, Altman’s dismissive response revealed a leader uncomfortable with the scrutiny that public markets will inevitably bring. The adults in the room have largely departed, leaving a company that desperately needs disciplined execution led by someone whose strengths lie elsewhere. The comparison to Netscape is instructive. Netscape proved that the internet was real and created genuine value, but it had no sustainable moat against an incumbent who could bundle the browser directly into the operating system. OpenAI has proven that large language models are real and valuable, but it faces the same structural disadvantage against incumbents who can bundle AI directly into operating systems, productivity suites, and cloud platforms. The value will accrue to the companies that own the distribution channels and the hardware, not to the company that demonstrated the technology was possible. OpenAI is destined to become a historical footnote, remembered as the company that ignited the AI revolution but failed to capture the economic value it created. The only bull case for OpenAI is the AGI lottery ticket: the possibility that the company achieves artificial general intelligence before anyone else and thereby transcends all normal economic analysis. But there is no evidence that OpenAI is any closer to AGI than Google, Anthropic, or DeepMind. The company’s advantage was never secret research breakthroughs; it was first-mover advantage in commercialization. That advantage has now been erased by competitors who can match or exceed OpenAI’s capabilities while benefiting from existing ecosystems, distribution channels, and the willingness to operate AI as a loss leader to drive engagement with more profitable products. The secret sauce was never secret, and there was never any sauce. The endgame for OpenAI is unlikely to be the triumphant dominance that early investors imagined. The most probable outcomes range from gradual irrelevance as a backend provider, to financial restructuring under pressure from creditors, to absorption by Microsoft or another well-capitalized technology company looking to acquire the remaining talent and intellectual property at a discount. Despite its current losses, OpenAI’s long-term prospects are bolstered by the explosive growth of the AI market. But growth in the overall AI market does not guarantee success for any individual company, particularly one with no moat, no ecosystem, and a cost structure that requires selling a commodity at premium prices. The AI revolution is real, but OpenAI’s role in capturing its economic value is far from assured. For anyone considering an investment in OpenAI at anything close to current valuations, the prudent course is to stay far away and watch from the sidelines as economic reality catches up with hype.

David Shapiro (L/0)

69,180 次观看 • 8 个月前