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𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐜𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲. 𝐍𝐨𝐰, 𝐰𝐞’𝐫𝐞 𝐮𝐧𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐭. 🌊🇮🇳 For decades, vast offshore areas remained off-limits, even as India relied heavily on imported oil and gas. PM Modi’s Samudra Manthan initiative is set to change that. 🔹 99% of previously restricted offshore areas opened... for exploration 🔹 ₹84,084 crore allocated for the National Offshore Exploration Scheme 🔹 600+ million metric tonnes of additional hydrocarbon reserves targeted 🔹 Domestic output could rise by 10–15 million tonnes/year, reaching 20 million tonnes at peak 🔹 Potential to reduce the crude import bill by nearly ₹1 lakh crore/year 🔹 Deep-water basins estimated to hold 5,600+ million tonnes of hydrocarbon potential This is about more than finding oil. It’s about building the infrastructure, technology and domestic capability to strengthen India’s energy security and reduce dependence on imports. ▶️ 𝐖𝐚𝐭𝐜𝐡 𝐡𝐨𝐰 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚’𝐬 𝐨𝐜𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐛𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐚 𝐦𝐚𝐣𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐭𝐡.show more

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𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚 𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐥𝐲 𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝'𝐬 𝐧𝐞𝐱𝐭 𝐬𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐩𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐞. 🇮🇳💻 For decades, India led the world in software. Now, under PM Modi's leadership, the nation is laying the foundation to become a global semiconductor manufacturing hub. 🔹 India's semiconductor market is projected to grow from $45–50 billion today to $120 billion by 2030 🔹 ₹76,000 crore allocated under the India Semiconductor Mission 🔹 Target to meet over 60% of India's chip demand through domestic production by 2035 🔹 Massive investments in fabs, packaging and testing facilities across multiple states 🔹 Around 2 million new jobs expected by 2035 across manufacturing, design and allied sectors 𝐖𝐚𝐭𝐜𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐨 𝐭𝐨 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐡𝐨𝐰 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚'𝐬 𝐬𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐲'𝐬 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐢𝐭 𝐚 𝐦𝐚𝐣𝐨𝐫 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐲 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐢𝐧. ⬇️

𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚 𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐥𝐲 𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝'𝐬 𝐧𝐞𝐱𝐭 𝐬𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐩𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐞. 🇮🇳💻 For decades, India led the world in software. Now, under PM Modi's leadership, the nation is laying the foundation to become a global semiconductor manufacturing hub. 🔹 India's semiconductor market is projected to grow from $45–50 billion today to $120 billion by 2030 🔹 ₹76,000 crore allocated under the India Semiconductor Mission 🔹 Target to meet over 60% of India's chip demand through domestic production by 2035 🔹 Massive investments in fabs, packaging and testing facilities across multiple states 🔹 Around 2 million new jobs expected by 2035 across manufacturing, design and allied sectors 𝐖𝐚𝐭𝐜𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐨 𝐭𝐨 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐡𝐨𝐰 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚'𝐬 𝐬𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐲'𝐬 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐢𝐭 𝐚 𝐦𝐚𝐣𝐨𝐫 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐲 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐢𝐧. ⬇️

BJP

24,052 views • 27 days ago

Interacted with senior officers of the Indian Foreign Service participating in the IFS Mid-Career Training Programme-III and discussed India’s energy security and energy diplomacy. As the India Growth Story resonates across the world, India is not merely a participant in the global energy landscape but is increasingly shaping it as the world’s third-largest consumer of energy and oil, third-largest refiner and fourth-largest LNG importer. India’s energy demand is expected to grow 2.5 times by 2047, accounting for around 25% of incremental global demand. Over the past decade, transformative reforms under the leadership of PM Shri Narendra Modi Ji have strengthened domestic capabilities, diversified energy sources, deepened strategic partnerships and accelerated our transition towards cleaner energy. The recently launched Samudra Manthan, with an outlay of over ₹84,000 crore up to FY 2030-31, is a major push to unlock India’s offshore hydrocarbon potential, including opening nearly 1 million sq. km of previously designated “No-Go” areas for exploration. It will strengthen domestic E&P and contribute to reducing import dependence. At the heart of India’s energy strategy is the ability to balance the trilemma of availability, affordability and sustainability despite the geopolitical disruptions. Our diplomats play a vital role in this endeavour towards securing supplies, safeguarding national interests, building resilient partnerships and creating the global conditions for India to grow with confidence. India’s energy diplomacy under PM Modi Ji is ultimately about securing the energy for our growth while shaping a more resilient and sustainable global energy future. PMO India Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas #MoPNG Randhir Jaiswal Indian Foreign Service Association Ministry of Information and Broadcasting PIB India India in USA India in Singapore India in Israel India in Kenya India in Russia Consulate of India in Sydney India in Vietnam India in Jamaica India in Zambia India in Angola India in Nigeria (and Benin & ECOWAS) Embassy of India in Lithuania India in Dominican Republic Indian Diplomacy

Interacted with senior officers of the Indian Foreign Service participating in the IFS Mid-Career Training Programme-III and discussed India’s energy security and energy diplomacy. As the India Growth Story resonates across the world, India is not merely a participant in the global energy landscape but is increasingly shaping it as the world’s third-largest consumer of energy and oil, third-largest refiner and fourth-largest LNG importer. India’s energy demand is expected to grow 2.5 times by 2047, accounting for around 25% of incremental global demand. Over the past decade, transformative reforms under the leadership of PM Shri Narendra Modi Ji have strengthened domestic capabilities, diversified energy sources, deepened strategic partnerships and accelerated our transition towards cleaner energy. The recently launched Samudra Manthan, with an outlay of over ₹84,000 crore up to FY 2030-31, is a major push to unlock India’s offshore hydrocarbon potential, including opening nearly 1 million sq. km of previously designated “No-Go” areas for exploration. It will strengthen domestic E&P and contribute to reducing import dependence. At the heart of India’s energy strategy is the ability to balance the trilemma of availability, affordability and sustainability despite the geopolitical disruptions. Our diplomats play a vital role in this endeavour towards securing supplies, safeguarding national interests, building resilient partnerships and creating the global conditions for India to grow with confidence. India’s energy diplomacy under PM Modi Ji is ultimately about securing the energy for our growth while shaping a more resilient and sustainable global energy future. PMO India Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas #MoPNG Randhir Jaiswal Indian Foreign Service Association Ministry of Information and Broadcasting PIB India India in USA India in Singapore India in Israel India in Kenya India in Russia Consulate of India in Sydney India in Vietnam India in Jamaica India in Zambia India in Angola India in Nigeria (and Benin & ECOWAS) Embassy of India in Lithuania India in Dominican Republic Indian Diplomacy

Hardeep Singh Puri

26,789 views • 2 days ago

Historic day in India’s quest towards energy security and energy self-sufficiency under the dynamic and firm leadership of PM Sh Narendra Modi Ji. Oilfields (Regulation and Development) Amendment Bill 2024 successfully passed in Lok Sabha today! Far-reaching amendments made in the existing legislation will further strengthen and propel India’s energy sector under the leadership of PM Modi Ji, and ensure policy stability, international arbitration, extended lease periods etc. The present global energy scenario and the hydrocarbon landscape has dramatically changed. Hence, there was a need to amend the Act to reflect current realities, national priorities, promote Ease of Doing Business (EoDB), decriminalize provisions and align India’s Exploration and Production (E&P) framework with practices of competing geographies. By virtue of the fact that we are going to rely on conventional energy for some time we need to step up our exploration and production activities. Today’s successful passage of the bill will be a constructive and positive step in this direction. Utilisation of energy is a reasonably good indicator of economic performance. Today we are consuming 5.5 Million Barrels of crude oil in a day. Just three and a half years ago this consumption was 5.0 Million Barrels. If we continue to grow at the rate at which we are, we will go upto 6.5-7.0 Million Barrels Per Day. India’s transformation to being #ViksitBharat will require a large amount of energy in all forms. Steps have been taken to enhance India’s energy exploration and production. Earlier one million sqkm area of our sedimentary basin used to be a ‘No Go’ area. As a result our import dependence was on a rise. We opened up that one million sqkm out of the 3.5 million sqkm of sedimentary basin to encourage and enhance domestic crude production. This has sent positive signals to prospective investors. 76% of total area under exploration has come under active exploration only since 2014. PMO India Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas #MoPNG PIB India Ministry of Information and Broadcasting

Historic day in India’s quest towards energy security and energy self-sufficiency under the dynamic and firm leadership of PM Sh Narendra Modi Ji. Oilfields (Regulation and Development) Amendment Bill 2024 successfully passed in Lok Sabha today! Far-reaching amendments made in the existing legislation will further strengthen and propel India’s energy sector under the leadership of PM Modi Ji, and ensure policy stability, international arbitration, extended lease periods etc. The present global energy scenario and the hydrocarbon landscape has dramatically changed. Hence, there was a need to amend the Act to reflect current realities, national priorities, promote Ease of Doing Business (EoDB), decriminalize provisions and align India’s Exploration and Production (E&P) framework with practices of competing geographies. By virtue of the fact that we are going to rely on conventional energy for some time we need to step up our exploration and production activities. Today’s successful passage of the bill will be a constructive and positive step in this direction. Utilisation of energy is a reasonably good indicator of economic performance. Today we are consuming 5.5 Million Barrels of crude oil in a day. Just three and a half years ago this consumption was 5.0 Million Barrels. If we continue to grow at the rate at which we are, we will go upto 6.5-7.0 Million Barrels Per Day. India’s transformation to being #ViksitBharat will require a large amount of energy in all forms. Steps have been taken to enhance India’s energy exploration and production. Earlier one million sqkm area of our sedimentary basin used to be a ‘No Go’ area. As a result our import dependence was on a rise. We opened up that one million sqkm out of the 3.5 million sqkm of sedimentary basin to encourage and enhance domestic crude production. This has sent positive signals to prospective investors. 76% of total area under exploration has come under active exploration only since 2014. PMO India Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas #MoPNG PIB India Ministry of Information and Broadcasting

Hardeep Singh Puri

139,985 views • 1 year ago

Very Important Read 👇🏻 After 17 days of conflict in West Asia and mounting uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz - the route that carries nearly 20% of global energy trade - the LPG carrier Shivalik docking at Mundra is far more than a routine shipment. From my perspective, this is a textbook case of how geopolitics, diplomacy and infrastructure come together when it matters most. Shivalik alone has brought about 45000 metric tonnes of LPG, and together with the vessel Nanda Devi, India is receiving close to 92000 metric tonnes roughly equivalent to 66 lakh domestic LPG cylinders. Considering India’s daily LPG demand is around 90000 tonnes, this shipment alone helps stabilise over a day of national consumption during a global supply disruption. What stands out to me is the dual strength behind this success. On one hand, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s geopolitical credibility, which ensured India could maintain working engagement across a volatile region and secure safe passage for its vessels through a tense maritime corridor. On the other hand is infrastructure readiness the cargo is being received at Adani’s Mundra Port, India’s largest commercial port and the first to cross 200 million tonnes of annual cargo handling. Ports built at this scale are exactly what allow a country to convert diplomatic success into real supply security. Frankly, this is also where I find India’s opposition politics deeply disconnected from reality. For years, we have heard relentless attacks on large infrastructure projects and constant attempts to discredit companies like the Adani Group that are building strategic national assets. Yet moments like this expose the contradiction. When a global crisis hits and energy supply chains are under stress, it is precisely these ports, logistics networks and infrastructure ecosystems that keep the country running. In my view, this episode reinforces a simple geopolitical truth: strong diplomacy secures the route, but nation-scale infrastructure like Adani’s Mundra Port ensures India’s energy lifeline never stops.

Very Important Read 👇🏻 After 17 days of conflict in West Asia and mounting uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz - the route that carries nearly 20% of global energy trade - the LPG carrier Shivalik docking at Mundra is far more than a routine shipment. From my perspective, this is a textbook case of how geopolitics, diplomacy and infrastructure come together when it matters most. Shivalik alone has brought about 45000 metric tonnes of LPG, and together with the vessel Nanda Devi, India is receiving close to 92000 metric tonnes roughly equivalent to 66 lakh domestic LPG cylinders. Considering India’s daily LPG demand is around 90000 tonnes, this shipment alone helps stabilise over a day of national consumption during a global supply disruption. What stands out to me is the dual strength behind this success. On one hand, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s geopolitical credibility, which ensured India could maintain working engagement across a volatile region and secure safe passage for its vessels through a tense maritime corridor. On the other hand is infrastructure readiness the cargo is being received at Adani’s Mundra Port, India’s largest commercial port and the first to cross 200 million tonnes of annual cargo handling. Ports built at this scale are exactly what allow a country to convert diplomatic success into real supply security. Frankly, this is also where I find India’s opposition politics deeply disconnected from reality. For years, we have heard relentless attacks on large infrastructure projects and constant attempts to discredit companies like the Adani Group that are building strategic national assets. Yet moments like this expose the contradiction. When a global crisis hits and energy supply chains are under stress, it is precisely these ports, logistics networks and infrastructure ecosystems that keep the country running. In my view, this episode reinforces a simple geopolitical truth: strong diplomacy secures the route, but nation-scale infrastructure like Adani’s Mundra Port ensures India’s energy lifeline never stops.

The Poll Lady

133,434 views • 5 months ago

Exploration and production of oil and gas are long-gestation, capital-intensive activities, but they are vital for strengthening India’s energy security and reducing import dependence. Answering a question in Rajya Sabha today, I explained the progress of the Ashok Nagar oil and gas project in West Bengal. The production sharing contract was signed in 2008, a discovery was made in 2018, and ONGC has already invested over Rs 1,000 crore. The Bengal Basin is estimated to hold about 240 million barrels of oil equivalent, with a cumulative production value of nearly Rs 45,000 crore. West Bengal alone stands to receive around Rs 4,500 crore from this project. Under the newly notified legislation, introduced as part of the energy sector reforms driven by Prime Minister Sh Narendra Modi Ji’s vision, there is now complete clarity on stamp duty and royalty payments, creating a transparent and balanced framework that benefits both the state government and the operator. With the provisional Petroleum Mining Lease granted in February 2025 and constructive engagement between the Centre, the state and all stakeholders, I am confident that production will begin soon. States that cooperate with exploration and production activities have already seen substantial revenue gains and with this project and future discoveries, West Bengal’s revenues will rise further, contributing to growth, employment and India’s energy security. PMO India Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas #MoPNG Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) Oil India Limited PIB India LOK SABHA SansadTV #EnergySecurity #ExplorationAndProduction #EnergyForGrowth #WinterSession

Exploration and production of oil and gas are long-gestation, capital-intensive activities, but they are vital for strengthening India’s energy security and reducing import dependence. Answering a question in Rajya Sabha today, I explained the progress of the Ashok Nagar oil and gas project in West Bengal. The production sharing contract was signed in 2008, a discovery was made in 2018, and ONGC has already invested over Rs 1,000 crore. The Bengal Basin is estimated to hold about 240 million barrels of oil equivalent, with a cumulative production value of nearly Rs 45,000 crore. West Bengal alone stands to receive around Rs 4,500 crore from this project. Under the newly notified legislation, introduced as part of the energy sector reforms driven by Prime Minister Sh Narendra Modi Ji’s vision, there is now complete clarity on stamp duty and royalty payments, creating a transparent and balanced framework that benefits both the state government and the operator. With the provisional Petroleum Mining Lease granted in February 2025 and constructive engagement between the Centre, the state and all stakeholders, I am confident that production will begin soon. States that cooperate with exploration and production activities have already seen substantial revenue gains and with this project and future discoveries, West Bengal’s revenues will rise further, contributing to growth, employment and India’s energy security. PMO India Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas #MoPNG Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) Oil India Limited PIB India LOK SABHA SansadTV #EnergySecurity #ExplorationAndProduction #EnergyForGrowth #WinterSession

Hardeep Singh Puri

18,560 views • 8 months ago

"The last time a major LNG project was developed in this country was 42 years ago, that was a Nigeria LLG project." Nigeria's gas sector has recorded a major breakthrough with the advancement of the $3 billion UTM Floating LNG (FLNG) Project, unlocking stranded offshore gas resources and strengthening the country's drive for industrial growth and energy security. Key Highlights: - The project secured a 15-year gas supply agreement, clearing the path for a Final Investment Decision (FID) expected later this year. - It is Africa's first indigenous-led Floating LNG (FLNG) project, fully developed by a Nigerian company. - The project represents Nigeria's first major LNG development in over 40 years, since the launch of the Nigeria LNG project. - The initiative aligns with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's gas development agenda, with officials crediting the administration's policy direction for unlocking the project. - A joint venture between NNPC Limited and Seplat Energy will supply 200 million standard cubic feet of gas per day under the 15-year agreement. - The FLNG facility will produce 1.8 million tonnes of LNG annually, monetising stranded gas from the Yoho Field. - About 30% of production, equivalent to over 300,000 metric tonnes of LPG annually, will be supplied to Nigeria's domestic market to support the Federal Government's clean cooking initiative. - The project is expected to generate billions of dollars in revenue, create thousands of jobs, and deepen local participation in the oil and gas industry. - Financing for the project is being led by African Export-Import Bank, which has also provided preparatory funding and is coordinating debt and equity financing. - Project promoters disclosed that the investment is oversubscribed, attracting strong interest from global energy traders and investors, including companies from the Middle East. - The project further demonstrates the growing capacity of indigenous Nigerian companies to deliver large-scale energy infrastructure while positioning Nigeria as a key supplier of LNG to regional and global markets.

"The last time a major LNG project was developed in this country was 42 years ago, that was a Nigeria LLG project." Nigeria's gas sector has recorded a major breakthrough with the advancement of the $3 billion UTM Floating LNG (FLNG) Project, unlocking stranded offshore gas resources and strengthening the country's drive for industrial growth and energy security. Key Highlights: - The project secured a 15-year gas supply agreement, clearing the path for a Final Investment Decision (FID) expected later this year. - It is Africa's first indigenous-led Floating LNG (FLNG) project, fully developed by a Nigerian company. - The project represents Nigeria's first major LNG development in over 40 years, since the launch of the Nigeria LNG project. - The initiative aligns with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's gas development agenda, with officials crediting the administration's policy direction for unlocking the project. - A joint venture between NNPC Limited and Seplat Energy will supply 200 million standard cubic feet of gas per day under the 15-year agreement. - The FLNG facility will produce 1.8 million tonnes of LNG annually, monetising stranded gas from the Yoho Field. - About 30% of production, equivalent to over 300,000 metric tonnes of LPG annually, will be supplied to Nigeria's domestic market to support the Federal Government's clean cooking initiative. - The project is expected to generate billions of dollars in revenue, create thousands of jobs, and deepen local participation in the oil and gas industry. - Financing for the project is being led by African Export-Import Bank, which has also provided preparatory funding and is coordinating debt and equity financing. - Project promoters disclosed that the investment is oversubscribed, attracting strong interest from global energy traders and investors, including companies from the Middle East. - The project further demonstrates the growing capacity of indigenous Nigerian companies to deliver large-scale energy infrastructure while positioning Nigeria as a key supplier of LNG to regional and global markets.

Daddy D.O🇳🇬

29,183 views • 1 month ago

India imports energy worth about ₹150 billion every year; and as our green energy transition moves steadily ahead under PM Sh Narendra Modi Ji’s guidance, we have now achieved 20% ethanol blending. This in effect means that we were able to save about ₹1,40,000 crore on our import bills. At the same time, even as we diversify the feedstock for ethanol production and now include crops like maize which use less water, we have been able to strengthen the agricultural economy by giving ₹40,000 crore annually to our farmers - thus also transforming our Annadatas into Urjadatas. With energy consumption of nearly 5.6 million barrels per day, India, which will soon be the world's third largest economy under the leadership of PM Modi Ji, is now the world’s third largest energy and oil consumer. International Energy Agency has estimated that in the next two decades nearly 35% of the increase in global demand will come from India. In an answer to a question in Lok Sabha, I also informed the August house of how ethanol blended fuel is a greener alternative with 65% lesser emissions. PMO India Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas #MoPNG Nitin Gadkari Pralhad Joshi Suressh Gopi LOK SABHA SansadTV PIB India Agriculture INDIA Invest India World Economic Forum

India imports energy worth about ₹150 billion every year; and as our green energy transition moves steadily ahead under PM Sh Narendra Modi Ji’s guidance, we have now achieved 20% ethanol blending. This in effect means that we were able to save about ₹1,40,000 crore on our import bills. At the same time, even as we diversify the feedstock for ethanol production and now include crops like maize which use less water, we have been able to strengthen the agricultural economy by giving ₹40,000 crore annually to our farmers - thus also transforming our Annadatas into Urjadatas. With energy consumption of nearly 5.6 million barrels per day, India, which will soon be the world's third largest economy under the leadership of PM Modi Ji, is now the world’s third largest energy and oil consumer. International Energy Agency has estimated that in the next two decades nearly 35% of the increase in global demand will come from India. In an answer to a question in Lok Sabha, I also informed the August house of how ethanol blended fuel is a greener alternative with 65% lesser emissions. PMO India Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas #MoPNG Nitin Gadkari Pralhad Joshi Suressh Gopi LOK SABHA SansadTV PIB India Agriculture INDIA Invest India World Economic Forum

Hardeep Singh Puri

55,077 views • 8 months ago

$India's mobility revolution has entered a new chapter. 🇮🇳 Today, along with Shri Nitin Gadkari Ji, we witnessed the launch of Hero MotoCorp's Splendor+ and HF Deluxe Flex Fuel motorcycles, capable of running on ethanol blends from E20 to E85. This is far more than the launch of a new vehicle. It is the convergence of India's energy security mission, our commitment to clean mobility, and our resolve to build an #AatmaNirbharBharat. Over 300 million two-wheelers ply on Indian roads today. Imagine the impact when even a fraction of them begin running on fuel produced from Indian farms rather than imported crude oil. A decade ago, ethanol blending in India stood at just 1.5%. Today, India has achieved 20% ethanol blending, one of the fastest energy transitions anywhere in the world. The benefits are immense. ✅ Reduced dependence on imported oil ✅ Lower foreign exchange outgo ✅ Cleaner transportation ✅ Additional income opportunities for our farmers Every litre of ethanol blended into fuel reduces India's import burden and strengthens our energy independence. Our farmers are no longer only Annadatas. They are increasingly becoming Urjadatas, contributing directly to India's energy future. The scale of this opportunity is extraordinary. Even if flex-fuel vehicles account for just 1% of annual petrol vehicle sales, they can generate demand for nearly 4 crore litres of ethanol every year, resulting in payments of around ₹266 crore to distilleries, savings of approximately ₹195 crore in foreign exchange, and direct economic benefits of nearly ₹160 crore flowing to our farmers. Having witnessed Brazil's successful flex-fuel journey firsthand, I have seen how transformative this technology can be for an entire nation. Today, India begins writing its own success story. A future where Indian vehicles are powered by Indian innovation, Indian farmers, and Indian energy. The road ahead is cleaner. The road ahead is greener. The road ahead is more self-reliant. And that journey has begun.$

India's mobility revolution has entered a new chapter. 🇮🇳 Today, along with Shri Nitin Gadkari Ji, we witnessed the launch of Hero MotoCorp's Splendor+ and HF Deluxe Flex Fuel motorcycles, capable of running on ethanol blends from E20 to E85. This is far more than the launch of a new vehicle. It is the convergence of India's energy security mission, our commitment to clean mobility, and our resolve to build an #AatmaNirbharBharat. Over 300 million two-wheelers ply on Indian roads today. Imagine the impact when even a fraction of them begin running on fuel produced from Indian farms rather than imported crude oil. A decade ago, ethanol blending in India stood at just 1.5%. Today, India has achieved 20% ethanol blending, one of the fastest energy transitions anywhere in the world. The benefits are immense. ✅ Reduced dependence on imported oil ✅ Lower foreign exchange outgo ✅ Cleaner transportation ✅ Additional income opportunities for our farmers Every litre of ethanol blended into fuel reduces India's import burden and strengthens our energy independence. Our farmers are no longer only Annadatas. They are increasingly becoming Urjadatas, contributing directly to India's energy future. The scale of this opportunity is extraordinary. Even if flex-fuel vehicles account for just 1% of annual petrol vehicle sales, they can generate demand for nearly 4 crore litres of ethanol every year, resulting in payments of around ₹266 crore to distilleries, savings of approximately ₹195 crore in foreign exchange, and direct economic benefits of nearly ₹160 crore flowing to our farmers. Having witnessed Brazil's successful flex-fuel journey firsthand, I have seen how transformative this technology can be for an entire nation. Today, India begins writing its own success story. A future where Indian vehicles are powered by Indian innovation, Indian farmers, and Indian energy. The road ahead is cleaner. The road ahead is greener. The road ahead is more self-reliant. And that journey has begun.

Hardeep Singh Puri

10,795 views • 2 months ago

Doing our bit for a healthier, stronger India 🇮🇳 As an athlete, I’ve always been mindful of what I eat and over the years, I’ve come to realise that small changes in our daily habits can make a big difference. That’s why I’m proud to join hands with the Department of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare, Government of India, for a special awareness campaign under the National Mission on Edible Oils (NMEO). The message is simple but powerful: Let’s try to reduce our edible oil consumption by just 10%. Not just for ourselves but for our families, and for the country. India currently consumes over 20 kg of edible oil per person every year. That’s much higher than what’s considered healthy and it’s also one of the reasons we spend nearly ₹80,000 crore on oil imports annually. This campaign is a reminder that good health starts at home. And that even a small change like being mindful of the oil we use can lead to a big impact. As a father, I think about the habits we’re passing on to the next generation. If we can make healthier choices today, we’re setting them up for a stronger tomorrow. Grateful for the chance to do my part. Let’s come together to build a healthier, more self-reliant Bharat. Agriculture INDIA #NMEO #MinistryOfAgricultureAndFarmersWelfare

Doing our bit for a healthier, stronger India 🇮🇳 As an athlete, I’ve always been mindful of what I eat and over the years, I’ve come to realise that small changes in our daily habits can make a big difference. That’s why I’m proud to join hands with the Department of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare, Government of India, for a special awareness campaign under the National Mission on Edible Oils (NMEO). The message is simple but powerful: Let’s try to reduce our edible oil consumption by just 10%. Not just for ourselves but for our families, and for the country. India currently consumes over 20 kg of edible oil per person every year. That’s much higher than what’s considered healthy and it’s also one of the reasons we spend nearly ₹80,000 crore on oil imports annually. This campaign is a reminder that good health starts at home. And that even a small change like being mindful of the oil we use can lead to a big impact. As a father, I think about the habits we’re passing on to the next generation. If we can make healthier choices today, we’re setting them up for a stronger tomorrow. Grateful for the chance to do my part. Let’s come together to build a healthier, more self-reliant Bharat. Agriculture INDIA #NMEO #MinistryOfAgricultureAndFarmersWelfare

Ajinkya Rahane

33,706 views • 1 year ago

THE MILIBAND BROTHERS: CRIME SYNDICATE THE TIMELINE THAT NOW DEMANDS ANSWERS** And why today’s asbestos revelation makes Miliband’s silence untenable... For more than a year, the government has insisted that the UK–China “clean energy partnership” is nothing unusual — just routine cooperation, nothing to see here. But the timeline tells a very different story, and today’s news about asbestos found IN Chinese‑manufactured wind turbines turns this from a policy debate into a public‑safety and national‑security issue. Here is the sequence of events that now requires full transparency. 🔹 March 2025 — Ed Miliband signs a Memorandum of Understanding with China He travels to Beijing and signs a wide‑ranging MoU covering: - Offshore wind - Electricity grids - Battery storage - Carbon capture - Hydrogen These are not minor areas. These are **critical national‑infrastructure sectors**. 🔹 March 2025 – February 2026 — The MoU is kept out of public view** For almost a year, the agreement is not published, not debated in Parliament, and not disclosed to the public. No press release. No ministerial statement. No scrutiny. 🔹 27 February 2026 — The MoU is quietly released. No announcement. No explanation. It simply appears on a government website. The timing and the silence raise immediate questions. 🔹 Spring 2026 — Miliband repeatedly refuses to release the full details. Across multiple interviews, he: - Dodges direct questions - Repeats scripted lines about “normal cooperation” - Avoids explaining what China gains - Avoids explaining what UK infrastructure China may influence - Refuses to publish the full text or annexes This is not transparency This is avoidance 🔹 June 2026 — RUSI warns of deepening UK dependence on Chinese supply chains A respected defence think tank warns that the UK’s offshore‑wind expansion risks: - Strategic dependence - Supply‑chain vulnerability - Loss of control over critical components Miliband does not address these warnings directly. 🔹 TODAY — Asbestos found in Chinese‑manufactured wind turbines This is the moment everything changes. Asbestos is banned in the UK. It is a known carcinogen Its presence in imported turbine components is a **major regulatory failure**. This is no longer a theoretical risk. This is a **real‑world safety breach** involving the very sector Miliband has tied to deeper cooperation with China. THE QUESTIONS ED MILIBAND MUST NOW ANSWER: 1. Why did you refuse to release the full China MoU for so long? A year‑long delay followed by a quiet publication is not normal practice for a major international agreement. 2. Does the MoU expand Chinese involvement in UK offshore wind projects? The public deserves clarity on whether Chinese firms gain access to UK tenders, supply chains, or grid‑related work. 3. Were you aware of asbestos risks in imported turbine components? If yes, why was the public not informed? If no, why were safety checks inadequate? 4. What due‑diligence processes exist for foreign‑manufactured renewable‑energy components? Today’s revelation suggests they are either weak or non‑existent. 5. Will you now publish the full MoU, including annexes, technical notes, and implementation plans? Partial transparency is not transparency. 6. How will the government ensure that UK infrastructure is not compromised by unsafe or non‑compliant imports? This is a matter of public health and national security. 7. Why should the public trust your assurances when the supply chain has already failed at the most basic safety level? The asbestos discovery undermines every claim of “routine cooperation” and “nothing to worry about.” **WHY THIS MATTERS** This is not about geopolitics. This is not about party politics. This is about: - Public safety - Regulatory integrity - National infrastructure - Transparency in government When a minister signs an agreement with a foreign power covering critical infrastructure, the public has the right to know **exactly** what was agreed — especially when components from that same country are now found to contain banned carcinogenic materials. The refusal to release the MoU is no longer a procedural issue. It is now a **public‑interest emergency** Given The Potential Corruption of Two Brothers from the Marxist End of Labour. Ed handing out Huge Green Energy Contracts. Brother David sitting on the Board of a company seeking to make money from the same Contracts. IT IS TIME PARLIAMENT, AND THE POLICE TOOK AN INTEREST IN THE CHINESE DEAL

THE MILIBAND BROTHERS: CRIME SYNDICATE THE TIMELINE THAT NOW DEMANDS ANSWERS And why today’s asbestos revelation makes Miliband’s silence untenable... For more than a year, the government has insisted that the UK–China “clean energy partnership” is nothing unusual — just routine cooperation, nothing to see here. But the timeline tells a very different story, and today’s news about asbestos found IN Chinese‑manufactured wind turbines turns this from a policy debate into a public‑safety and national‑security issue. Here is the sequence of events that now requires full transparency. 🔹 March 2025 — Ed Miliband signs a Memorandum of Understanding with China He travels to Beijing and signs a wide‑ranging MoU covering: - Offshore wind - Electricity grids - Battery storage - Carbon capture - Hydrogen These are not minor areas. These are critical national‑infrastructure sectors. 🔹 March 2025 – February 2026 — The MoU is kept out of public view For almost a year, the agreement is not published, not debated in Parliament, and not disclosed to the public. No press release. No ministerial statement. No scrutiny. 🔹 27 February 2026 — The MoU is quietly released. No announcement. No explanation. It simply appears on a government website. The timing and the silence raise immediate questions. 🔹 Spring 2026 — Miliband repeatedly refuses to release the full details. Across multiple interviews, he: - Dodges direct questions - Repeats scripted lines about “normal cooperation” - Avoids explaining what China gains - Avoids explaining what UK infrastructure China may influence - Refuses to publish the full text or annexes This is not transparency This is avoidance 🔹 June 2026 — RUSI warns of deepening UK dependence on Chinese supply chains A respected defence think tank warns that the UK’s offshore‑wind expansion risks: - Strategic dependence - Supply‑chain vulnerability - Loss of control over critical components Miliband does not address these warnings directly. 🔹 TODAY — Asbestos found in Chinese‑manufactured wind turbines This is the moment everything changes. Asbestos is banned in the UK. It is a known carcinogen Its presence in imported turbine components is a major regulatory failure. This is no longer a theoretical risk. This is a real‑world safety breach involving the very sector Miliband has tied to deeper cooperation with China. THE QUESTIONS ED MILIBAND MUST NOW ANSWER: 1. Why did you refuse to release the full China MoU for so long? A year‑long delay followed by a quiet publication is not normal practice for a major international agreement. 2. Does the MoU expand Chinese involvement in UK offshore wind projects? The public deserves clarity on whether Chinese firms gain access to UK tenders, supply chains, or grid‑related work. 3. Were you aware of asbestos risks in imported turbine components? If yes, why was the public not informed? If no, why were safety checks inadequate? 4. What due‑diligence processes exist for foreign‑manufactured renewable‑energy components? Today’s revelation suggests they are either weak or non‑existent. 5. Will you now publish the full MoU, including annexes, technical notes, and implementation plans? Partial transparency is not transparency. 6. How will the government ensure that UK infrastructure is not compromised by unsafe or non‑compliant imports? This is a matter of public health and national security. 7. Why should the public trust your assurances when the supply chain has already failed at the most basic safety level? The asbestos discovery undermines every claim of “routine cooperation” and “nothing to worry about.” WHY THIS MATTERS This is not about geopolitics. This is not about party politics. This is about: - Public safety - Regulatory integrity - National infrastructure - Transparency in government When a minister signs an agreement with a foreign power covering critical infrastructure, the public has the right to know exactly what was agreed — especially when components from that same country are now found to contain banned carcinogenic materials. The refusal to release the MoU is no longer a procedural issue. It is now a public‑interest emergency Given The Potential Corruption of Two Brothers from the Marxist End of Labour. Ed handing out Huge Green Energy Contracts. Brother David sitting on the Board of a company seeking to make money from the same Contracts. IT IS TIME PARLIAMENT, AND THE POLICE TOOK AN INTEREST IN THE CHINESE DEAL

Pete Sanford

106,101 views • 2 months ago

OIL PRICES SET TO EXPLODE: AMERICA CAN'T FILL THE GULF SHORTFALL Chris Martenson — the prescient analyst who even back then had already anticipated the market reaction to COVID at an early stage as cases in China began to rise — just dropped a no-nonsense breakdown: Oil and gas prices in the United States and Europe are about to explode a lot higher. Trump's boasts about empty tankers rushing in for America's "sweetest oil" sound impressive on the surface, yet the actual data paints a far more urgent picture of limits, shortfalls, and inevitable chaos ahead. THE TANKER BOAST DEBUNKED ➡️ Trump claims massive numbers of completely empty oil tankers are heading to the United States right now to load up on the best oil and gas anywhere. ➡️ Those tankers always arrive empty — that is simply how the shipping system works every single day. ➡️ The map of tankers coming and going around the US ports looks exactly like this year-round. THE CRUDE OIL TRUTH ➡️ The United States remains a net importer of crude oil — importing 6.3 million barrels per day and exporting only 4.1 million in the latest week, for a net import of over 2 million barrels daily. ➡️ Domestic crude production has been flattening out for two and a half years and hit its all-time monthly peak back in October 2025. ➡️ At best the US can squeeze out an extra 1 million barrels per day due to port loading limits and logistics — nowhere near enough to matter. THE NGL CONFUSION ➡️ Officials and headlines proudly declare America is a net petroleum exporter. ➡️ That label lumps in natural gas plant liquids — ethane, propane, butane, and similar light hydrocarbons that make up the bulk of those exports. ➡️ These substances cannot run cars, jets, ships, or pave roads — they serve industrial, heating, and petrochemical uses only. THE MASSIVE SHORTFALL ➡️ OPEC Plus output has dropped by 8 million barrels per day and is now completely missing from global supply. ➡️ The United States cannot come close to covering that gap no matter how many tankers arrive. ➡️ The Persian Gulf disruptions are already driving diesel and gasoline prices higher, with forecasts hitting $4.40 per gallon this month. THE INVENTORY PRESSURE ➡️ Commercial crude and product inventories sit near the low end of normal ranges. ➡️ Jet fuel stocks have been trending down all year while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases remain tiny at roughly 250,000 barrels per day. ➡️ Any ramp-up in exports will pull straight from already tight stocks and push prices even higher. THE BOTTOM LINE The United States does not have surplus crude oil sitting ready to rescue the world — the math simply does not add up. Every extra barrel shipped out now accelerates the drawdown that markets have been ignoring. HT: #OilPrices #GasolineSurge #EnergyCrisis #CrudeReality #OilShortfall #PersianGulf #MarketChaos

OIL PRICES SET TO EXPLODE: AMERICA CAN'T FILL THE GULF SHORTFALL Chris Martenson — the prescient analyst who even back then had already anticipated the market reaction to COVID at an early stage as cases in China began to rise — just dropped a no-nonsense breakdown: Oil and gas prices in the United States and Europe are about to explode a lot higher. Trump's boasts about empty tankers rushing in for America's "sweetest oil" sound impressive on the surface, yet the actual data paints a far more urgent picture of limits, shortfalls, and inevitable chaos ahead. THE TANKER BOAST DEBUNKED ➡️ Trump claims massive numbers of completely empty oil tankers are heading to the United States right now to load up on the best oil and gas anywhere. ➡️ Those tankers always arrive empty — that is simply how the shipping system works every single day. ➡️ The map of tankers coming and going around the US ports looks exactly like this year-round. THE CRUDE OIL TRUTH ➡️ The United States remains a net importer of crude oil — importing 6.3 million barrels per day and exporting only 4.1 million in the latest week, for a net import of over 2 million barrels daily. ➡️ Domestic crude production has been flattening out for two and a half years and hit its all-time monthly peak back in October 2025. ➡️ At best the US can squeeze out an extra 1 million barrels per day due to port loading limits and logistics — nowhere near enough to matter. THE NGL CONFUSION ➡️ Officials and headlines proudly declare America is a net petroleum exporter. ➡️ That label lumps in natural gas plant liquids — ethane, propane, butane, and similar light hydrocarbons that make up the bulk of those exports. ➡️ These substances cannot run cars, jets, ships, or pave roads — they serve industrial, heating, and petrochemical uses only. THE MASSIVE SHORTFALL ➡️ OPEC Plus output has dropped by 8 million barrels per day and is now completely missing from global supply. ➡️ The United States cannot come close to covering that gap no matter how many tankers arrive. ➡️ The Persian Gulf disruptions are already driving diesel and gasoline prices higher, with forecasts hitting $4.40 per gallon this month. THE INVENTORY PRESSURE ➡️ Commercial crude and product inventories sit near the low end of normal ranges. ➡️ Jet fuel stocks have been trending down all year while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases remain tiny at roughly 250,000 barrels per day. ➡️ Any ramp-up in exports will pull straight from already tight stocks and push prices even higher. THE BOTTOM LINE The United States does not have surplus crude oil sitting ready to rescue the world — the math simply does not add up. Every extra barrel shipped out now accelerates the drawdown that markets have been ignoring. HT: #OilPrices #GasolineSurge #EnergyCrisis #CrudeReality #OilShortfall #PersianGulf #MarketChaos

Mark

87,250 views • 4 months ago

MAHAMA ANNOUNCES HISTORIC FIRST DELIVERY OF GHANAIAN CRUDE TO LOCAL REFINERY President Outlines Bold Value-Addition Agenda at Ghana Diaspora Town Hall Meeting in London LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM — President John Dramani Mahama has announced a landmark breakthrough in Ghana’s energy and industrial transformation agenda, revealing that Ghana will, for the first time in years, begin refining its own crude oil locally as part of a comprehensive strategy to drive industrialization, create jobs, strengthen local manufacturing, and retain greater value within the national economy. Addressing hundreds of Ghanaians, investors, professionals and business leaders at the Ghana Diaspora Town Hall Meeting in London, President Mahama outlined his administration’s vision for transforming Ghana from an exporter of raw materials into a modern industrial economy powered by value addition and local production. Speaking passionately about the future of Ghana’s energy sector, President Mahama disclosed that the government is aggressively expanding offshore oil and gas production while simultaneously ensuring that the country develops the capacity to process more of its natural resources domestically. According to the President, Ghana has secured major upstream investments, including a fresh commitment of approximately US$1.5 billion from ENI in the Offshore Cape Three Points (OCTP) Field to increase the production of both oil and natural gas. However, he stressed that increased production alone is not enough. “We are about to make history again. We did it during my first term, but after we left office it did not continue. In June, we will deliver a parcel of Ghanaian crude from our own oil fields to a refinery in Ghana for processing,” President Mahama announced to loud applause from the audience. The announcement is being viewed as a defining moment in Ghana’s petroleum industry and a significant step toward reducing the country’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products. For decades, Ghana has exported crude oil while importing refined fuels and petroleum products at considerable cost. President Mahama argued that such a model effectively exports jobs, technology, industrial growth, and economic opportunities to other countries. “Normally we produce the oil and export it. Then we import finished petroleum products or import crude again to refine. That cycle must change,” he stated. He explained that local refining will enable Ghana to capture more value from its natural resources, retain foreign exchange, strengthen local supply chains, stimulate industrial growth, and create thousands of direct and indirect jobs for Ghanaians. The President emphasized that the refining initiative forms part of a broader national industrial strategy aimed at building a fully integrated petroleum value chain encompassing extraction, refining, storage, petrochemicals, distribution, manufacturing and exports. Beyond oil and gas, President Mahama called for a national commitment to value addition across every productive sector of the economy. Using Ghana’s mineral sector as an example, he noted that the country continues to export raw gold, manganese, bauxite and other minerals for processing abroad, only to import higher-value finished products at a premium. “When we export raw materials and somebody else processes them, we create jobs in their economy instead of our own. The finished products are then exported back to us. That model cannot deliver sustainable prosperity,” he said. The President stressed that Ghana’s future economic success depends on deliberately moving up the value chain through investments in manufacturing, agro-processing, mineral beneficiation, fertilizer production, petrochemicals, food processing and strategic industrial parks. Economic analysts believe the strategy could significantly reposition Ghana as a leading industrial hub in West Africa while accelerating job creation, technology transfer and export growth.

MAHAMA ANNOUNCES HISTORIC FIRST DELIVERY OF GHANAIAN CRUDE TO LOCAL REFINERY President Outlines Bold Value-Addition Agenda at Ghana Diaspora Town Hall Meeting in London LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM — President John Dramani Mahama has announced a landmark breakthrough in Ghana’s energy and industrial transformation agenda, revealing that Ghana will, for the first time in years, begin refining its own crude oil locally as part of a comprehensive strategy to drive industrialization, create jobs, strengthen local manufacturing, and retain greater value within the national economy. Addressing hundreds of Ghanaians, investors, professionals and business leaders at the Ghana Diaspora Town Hall Meeting in London, President Mahama outlined his administration’s vision for transforming Ghana from an exporter of raw materials into a modern industrial economy powered by value addition and local production. Speaking passionately about the future of Ghana’s energy sector, President Mahama disclosed that the government is aggressively expanding offshore oil and gas production while simultaneously ensuring that the country develops the capacity to process more of its natural resources domestically. According to the President, Ghana has secured major upstream investments, including a fresh commitment of approximately US$1.5 billion from ENI in the Offshore Cape Three Points (OCTP) Field to increase the production of both oil and natural gas. However, he stressed that increased production alone is not enough. “We are about to make history again. We did it during my first term, but after we left office it did not continue. In June, we will deliver a parcel of Ghanaian crude from our own oil fields to a refinery in Ghana for processing,” President Mahama announced to loud applause from the audience. The announcement is being viewed as a defining moment in Ghana’s petroleum industry and a significant step toward reducing the country’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products. For decades, Ghana has exported crude oil while importing refined fuels and petroleum products at considerable cost. President Mahama argued that such a model effectively exports jobs, technology, industrial growth, and economic opportunities to other countries. “Normally we produce the oil and export it. Then we import finished petroleum products or import crude again to refine. That cycle must change,” he stated. He explained that local refining will enable Ghana to capture more value from its natural resources, retain foreign exchange, strengthen local supply chains, stimulate industrial growth, and create thousands of direct and indirect jobs for Ghanaians. The President emphasized that the refining initiative forms part of a broader national industrial strategy aimed at building a fully integrated petroleum value chain encompassing extraction, refining, storage, petrochemicals, distribution, manufacturing and exports. Beyond oil and gas, President Mahama called for a national commitment to value addition across every productive sector of the economy. Using Ghana’s mineral sector as an example, he noted that the country continues to export raw gold, manganese, bauxite and other minerals for processing abroad, only to import higher-value finished products at a premium. “When we export raw materials and somebody else processes them, we create jobs in their economy instead of our own. The finished products are then exported back to us. That model cannot deliver sustainable prosperity,” he said. The President stressed that Ghana’s future economic success depends on deliberately moving up the value chain through investments in manufacturing, agro-processing, mineral beneficiation, fertilizer production, petrochemicals, food processing and strategic industrial parks. Economic analysts believe the strategy could significantly reposition Ghana as a leading industrial hub in West Africa while accelerating job creation, technology transfer and export growth.

KALYJAY

19,314 views • 2 months ago

On September 28, Moldova will hold parliamentary elections that could be decisive for the country's future. For President Maia Sandu and her Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), this is a chance to consolidate their pro-European course and continue negotiations on EU accession. A year ago, Moldova elected Maia Sandu to a second term by a narrow margin and chose a course of European integration. At that time, according to a joint investigation by Balkan Insight and CU SENS, Russia was training mercenaries in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina to prepare for a coup in Moldova. ❗️President Sandu estimates that Russia spent around €150 million ($176,6 million) on interfering in the presidential election, equivalent to 1% of Moldova's GDP. Now,Moldova is about to elect a parliament. And for the Kremlin, this is the last chance to bring the republic back into its sphere of influence. According to Bloomberg, Moscow has developed a multi-pronged strategy aimed at undermining Chișinău's course towards integration into the European Union. 🔹 First, the recruitment of Moldovan citizens living abroad, including in Russia, to vote at polling stations in EU countries and other regions. Last year, President Sandu was elected thanks to the support of the diaspora. Therefore, Russia is now betting on it and is ready to finance trips for Moldovans abroad to ensure turnout at the polling stations. 🔹 Second, there are plans to organize provocative protests involving young people from sports clubs and criminal networks. They are intended to destabilize the situation during and after the elections, including possible demonstrations demanding Sandu's resignation or challenging the vote results. 🔹Third, a large-scale disinformation campaign on social media. To spread its propaganda, Russia is even using priests from the Russian Orthodox Church and the Matryoshka bot network, which creates fake content under the guise of legitimate foreign media outlets. A BBC investigation has revealed that Russia has created a network that pays people for posting pro-Russian propaganda and fake news. Members of the network are trained to publish propaganda "organically" on TikTok and Facebook, using ChatGPT to create posts. For $170 a month, network participants are encouraged to spread accusations against the government and President Sandu, as well as intimidate voters with topics such as LGBTQ+ issues and "child trafficking." Since January, the network has posted thousands of videos on TikTok, garnering over 23 million views and 860,000 likes. In addition to online propaganda, coordinators instruct recruits to conduct 'surveys' of Chișinău residents, secretly recording the voices of supporters of pro-Russian opposition. These recordings can be used as evidence of election "fraud" in the event of a PAS victory. The investigation revealed that the funding comes directly from Russia, specifically through Russia's Promsvyazbank, which is considered the official bank of the Russian defense ministry and is a shareholder in one of the companies owned by fugitive Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor. During her address in the EP Plenary session, President Sandu emphasized that protecting elections is not only a matter of domestic policy but also of regional security. "The Kremlin's goal is clear: to capture Moldova through the ballot box, to use us against Ukraine and to turn us into a launchpad for hybrid attacks on the European Union," she said. 📹: BBC

On September 28, Moldova will hold parliamentary elections that could be decisive for the country's future. For President Maia Sandu and her Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), this is a chance to consolidate their pro-European course and continue negotiations on EU accession. A year ago, Moldova elected Maia Sandu to a second term by a narrow margin and chose a course of European integration. At that time, according to a joint investigation by Balkan Insight and CU SENS, Russia was training mercenaries in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina to prepare for a coup in Moldova. ❗️President Sandu estimates that Russia spent around €150 million ($176,6 million) on interfering in the presidential election, equivalent to 1% of Moldova's GDP. Now,Moldova is about to elect a parliament. And for the Kremlin, this is the last chance to bring the republic back into its sphere of influence. According to Bloomberg, Moscow has developed a multi-pronged strategy aimed at undermining Chișinău's course towards integration into the European Union. 🔹 First, the recruitment of Moldovan citizens living abroad, including in Russia, to vote at polling stations in EU countries and other regions. Last year, President Sandu was elected thanks to the support of the diaspora. Therefore, Russia is now betting on it and is ready to finance trips for Moldovans abroad to ensure turnout at the polling stations. 🔹 Second, there are plans to organize provocative protests involving young people from sports clubs and criminal networks. They are intended to destabilize the situation during and after the elections, including possible demonstrations demanding Sandu's resignation or challenging the vote results. 🔹Third, a large-scale disinformation campaign on social media. To spread its propaganda, Russia is even using priests from the Russian Orthodox Church and the Matryoshka bot network, which creates fake content under the guise of legitimate foreign media outlets. A BBC investigation has revealed that Russia has created a network that pays people for posting pro-Russian propaganda and fake news. Members of the network are trained to publish propaganda "organically" on TikTok and Facebook, using ChatGPT to create posts. For $170 a month, network participants are encouraged to spread accusations against the government and President Sandu, as well as intimidate voters with topics such as LGBTQ+ issues and "child trafficking." Since January, the network has posted thousands of videos on TikTok, garnering over 23 million views and 860,000 likes. In addition to online propaganda, coordinators instruct recruits to conduct 'surveys' of Chișinău residents, secretly recording the voices of supporters of pro-Russian opposition. These recordings can be used as evidence of election "fraud" in the event of a PAS victory. The investigation revealed that the funding comes directly from Russia, specifically through Russia's Promsvyazbank, which is considered the official bank of the Russian defense ministry and is a shareholder in one of the companies owned by fugitive Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor. During her address in the EP Plenary session, President Sandu emphasized that protecting elections is not only a matter of domestic policy but also of regional security. "The Kremlin's goal is clear: to capture Moldova through the ballot box, to use us against Ukraine and to turn us into a launchpad for hybrid attacks on the European Union," she said. 📹: BBC

Anton Gerashchenko

192,841 views • 11 months ago

The Oil Shock Is Hitting A Supply Chain Already Rewired Under Stress The real danger here is hat the global economy is entering the worst energy shock of our lifetimes after already spending the last year rewiring trade under tariff pressure, China decoupling, front loaded inventories, and longer supply routes. That matters because fragility rarely comes from one shock. It comes when one shock lands on top of a system that already had its buffers removed. The China Trade Collapse The China trade collapse is real. Census data shows U.S. goods imports from China fell from $438.7 billion in 2024 to $308.4 billion in 2025, a decline of almost 30%. U.S. exports to China fell from $143.2 billion to $106.3 billion, and the bilateral goods deficit dropped to $202.1 billion, the lowest level in years. That is not a blip. That is structural decoupling. But the key nuance is that global trade did not collapse with it. UNCTAD says global trade still grew about 7.5% in 2025 to a record $35 trillion, while BEA data shows total U.S. imports rose 4.8% and the overall trade deficit barely moved, falling only 0.2% to $901.5 billion. The Rerouting Illusion That means the world did not stop trading. It rerouted. China was partly replaced by Mexico, Vietnam, India, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, and other nodes. On paper, that looks like resilience. In reality, it also means more complexity, more shipping dependence, more customs friction, more insurance risk, more working capital tied up in inventory, and more fuel burned per unit of goods moved. The supply chain survived the tariff shock by becoming less efficient. Now Place An Oil Shock On Top Of That The IEA says global observed oil inventories fell by 85 million barrels in March, while stocks outside the Middle East Gulf fell by 205 million barrels as Hormuz flows were choked off. It also said oil export losses now exceed 13 million barrels per day, with cumulative supply losses of more than 360 million barrels in March and 440 million projected for April. The peak daily supply loss is already above 12 million barrels per day, larger than the 1973 Arab oil embargo at roughly 4.5 million barrels per day and the 1978 to 1979 Iranian Revolution at roughly 5.6 million. The Inventory Signal The chart is showing the physical cushion disappearing. Once inventories fall fast enough, price stops being the only rationing mechanism. The system starts rationing through behavior, policy, and scarcity. Airlines cut routes. Truckers pass through diesel costs. Food prices rise. Fertilizer gets tighter. Refineries prioritize. Governments release reserves. Then come pressure campaigns, fuel allocation, export controls, industrial curtailments, remote work mandates, speed limits, and priority access for military, emergency services, farming, and food logistics. What An Energy Lockdown Would Actually Look Like That is what an energy lockdown would look like. Not necessarily COVID style house arrest, but a forced reduction in mobility because the fuel system cannot support normal economic life at normal prices. The 1970s gave us gas lines, odd even rationing, Sunday station closures, and a 55 mph speed limit. Today’s version would be more technocratic, more targeted, and probably sold as temporary conservation. But the logic is the same. When energy is scarce, freedom of movement becomes a policy variable. My Take The oil shock is bad enough by itself. The real danger is that it is hitting a trade system already made more fragile by tariffs and China decoupling. Trade did not collapse in 2025. It rerouted. But rerouted trade depends on cheap, available fuel. If Hormuz stays disrupted, this becomes an inflation, logistics, food, credit, and political stability shock. The market is focused on the price of oil, but the real warning is the inventory draw. Once the spare barrels are gone, energy stops being managed by markets alone and starts being managed by allocation.

The Oil Shock Is Hitting A Supply Chain Already Rewired Under Stress The real danger here is hat the global economy is entering the worst energy shock of our lifetimes after already spending the last year rewiring trade under tariff pressure, China decoupling, front loaded inventories, and longer supply routes. That matters because fragility rarely comes from one shock. It comes when one shock lands on top of a system that already had its buffers removed. The China Trade Collapse The China trade collapse is real. Census data shows U.S. goods imports from China fell from $438.7 billion in 2024 to $308.4 billion in 2025, a decline of almost 30%. U.S. exports to China fell from $143.2 billion to $106.3 billion, and the bilateral goods deficit dropped to $202.1 billion, the lowest level in years. That is not a blip. That is structural decoupling. But the key nuance is that global trade did not collapse with it. UNCTAD says global trade still grew about 7.5% in 2025 to a record $35 trillion, while BEA data shows total U.S. imports rose 4.8% and the overall trade deficit barely moved, falling only 0.2% to $901.5 billion. The Rerouting Illusion That means the world did not stop trading. It rerouted. China was partly replaced by Mexico, Vietnam, India, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, and other nodes. On paper, that looks like resilience. In reality, it also means more complexity, more shipping dependence, more customs friction, more insurance risk, more working capital tied up in inventory, and more fuel burned per unit of goods moved. The supply chain survived the tariff shock by becoming less efficient. Now Place An Oil Shock On Top Of That The IEA says global observed oil inventories fell by 85 million barrels in March, while stocks outside the Middle East Gulf fell by 205 million barrels as Hormuz flows were choked off. It also said oil export losses now exceed 13 million barrels per day, with cumulative supply losses of more than 360 million barrels in March and 440 million projected for April. The peak daily supply loss is already above 12 million barrels per day, larger than the 1973 Arab oil embargo at roughly 4.5 million barrels per day and the 1978 to 1979 Iranian Revolution at roughly 5.6 million. The Inventory Signal The chart is showing the physical cushion disappearing. Once inventories fall fast enough, price stops being the only rationing mechanism. The system starts rationing through behavior, policy, and scarcity. Airlines cut routes. Truckers pass through diesel costs. Food prices rise. Fertilizer gets tighter. Refineries prioritize. Governments release reserves. Then come pressure campaigns, fuel allocation, export controls, industrial curtailments, remote work mandates, speed limits, and priority access for military, emergency services, farming, and food logistics. What An Energy Lockdown Would Actually Look Like That is what an energy lockdown would look like. Not necessarily COVID style house arrest, but a forced reduction in mobility because the fuel system cannot support normal economic life at normal prices. The 1970s gave us gas lines, odd even rationing, Sunday station closures, and a 55 mph speed limit. Today’s version would be more technocratic, more targeted, and probably sold as temporary conservation. But the logic is the same. When energy is scarce, freedom of movement becomes a policy variable. My Take The oil shock is bad enough by itself. The real danger is that it is hitting a trade system already made more fragile by tariffs and China decoupling. Trade did not collapse in 2025. It rerouted. But rerouted trade depends on cheap, available fuel. If Hormuz stays disrupted, this becomes an inflation, logistics, food, credit, and political stability shock. The market is focused on the price of oil, but the real warning is the inventory draw. Once the spare barrels are gone, energy stops being managed by markets alone and starts being managed by allocation.

EndGame Macro

41,818 views • 4 months ago

$The Trump administration underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz, note many in the media. CNN reported that while the Departments of Energy and the Treasury participated in pre-war planning meetings, “the agency analysis and forecasts that would be integral elements of the decision-making process in past administrations were secondary considerations.” But the Strait of Hormuz was a catastrophe waiting to happen. A few years from now, people will look back on this moment and find it incredible that the world allowed the global economy to be dependent on moving so much oil and natural gas through such a dangerous bottleneck. Part of the solution is for the world to reduce its dependence on Persian Gulf oil and gas. That will require expanding production outside the Persian Gulf. Another part is to help Persian Gulf nations move more of their oil and gas through new or expanded pipelines to the Red Sea and perhaps even the Mediterranean. The faster the world builds those alternatives, the less leverage Iran retains. Many believe that the United States must not allow Iran to control the Strait under any circumstances, and the instinct to fight for Hormuz is understandable. It has been a central artery of global energy for over half a century. But instead of fighting to reopen the Strait, the world should build around it. The infrastructure to do so already exists in embryonic form. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, built during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, carries crude 750 miles across the kingdom from the Gulf coast to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, with a design capacity of 7 million barrels per day. The UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline runs to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, bypassing the Strait entirely. And Iraq’s Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline connects to the Mediterranean coast of Turkey. Gulf states are already exploring a broader network of pipelines, railways, and roads, including the U.S.-backed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), that would create multiple export routes to the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar, which have no bypass pipelines at all, should build routes through Saudi Arabia or Iraq, argued The National, a UAE newspaper. And Japan, South Korea, and India should, the paper argued, invest alongside Gulf sovereign wealth funds. Iran will almost certainly impose tolls on vessels transiting the Strait, as its parliament has already passed a bill to formalize fee collection. A toll of $2 to $5 per barrel, the range analysts expect Iran to charge, would add roughly $40 to $100 billion per year to global energy costs. But more war will cause far more harm than simply building alternatives because every escalation destroys infrastructure that the world needs to produce and export energy. While “all roads” may lead to “structurally higher oil prices,” as one analysis of future scenarios concluded, one of those roads leads to far less damage to people and energy infrastructure. Iran’s strikes on Ras Laffan, Qatar’s LNG hub, will take three to five years to repair. The strikes on South Pars threaten the world’s largest natural gas reserve. Iran’s attacks on Gulf neighbors have damaged refineries, desalination plants, and port facilities across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait. And consider how much more damage is possible. After the US struck Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub, and Israel hit Iran’s largest petrochemical complex at South Pars, the world’s largest natural gas reserve, Iran’s military threatened to “deprive the U.S. and its allies of the region’s oil and gas for years.” As such, the $40 to $100 billion is a fraction of the $2 trillion or more that Goldman Sachs has estimated the war has already cost the global economy in lost output, destroyed infrastructure, and elevated energy prices. And continued war could lead Iran to cut off the flows of existing Saudi oil flows through its East-West pipeline. Iranian adviser Aliakbar Velayati warned that Iran views the Bab al-Mandab Strait off Yemen “with the same intensity as Hormuz” and that “the flow of energy and global trade can be disrupted with a single signal.” Please subscribe now to support Public's award-winning investigative journalism, read the rest of the article, and watch the full video.$

The Trump administration underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz, note many in the media. CNN reported that while the Departments of Energy and the Treasury participated in pre-war planning meetings, “the agency analysis and forecasts that would be integral elements of the decision-making process in past administrations were secondary considerations.” But the Strait of Hormuz was a catastrophe waiting to happen. A few years from now, people will look back on this moment and find it incredible that the world allowed the global economy to be dependent on moving so much oil and natural gas through such a dangerous bottleneck. Part of the solution is for the world to reduce its dependence on Persian Gulf oil and gas. That will require expanding production outside the Persian Gulf. Another part is to help Persian Gulf nations move more of their oil and gas through new or expanded pipelines to the Red Sea and perhaps even the Mediterranean. The faster the world builds those alternatives, the less leverage Iran retains. Many believe that the United States must not allow Iran to control the Strait under any circumstances, and the instinct to fight for Hormuz is understandable. It has been a central artery of global energy for over half a century. But instead of fighting to reopen the Strait, the world should build around it. The infrastructure to do so already exists in embryonic form. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, built during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, carries crude 750 miles across the kingdom from the Gulf coast to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, with a design capacity of 7 million barrels per day. The UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline runs to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, bypassing the Strait entirely. And Iraq’s Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline connects to the Mediterranean coast of Turkey. Gulf states are already exploring a broader network of pipelines, railways, and roads, including the U.S.-backed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), that would create multiple export routes to the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar, which have no bypass pipelines at all, should build routes through Saudi Arabia or Iraq, argued The National, a UAE newspaper. And Japan, South Korea, and India should, the paper argued, invest alongside Gulf sovereign wealth funds. Iran will almost certainly impose tolls on vessels transiting the Strait, as its parliament has already passed a bill to formalize fee collection. A toll of $2 to $5 per barrel, the range analysts expect Iran to charge, would add roughly $40 to $100 billion per year to global energy costs. But more war will cause far more harm than simply building alternatives because every escalation destroys infrastructure that the world needs to produce and export energy. While “all roads” may lead to “structurally higher oil prices,” as one analysis of future scenarios concluded, one of those roads leads to far less damage to people and energy infrastructure. Iran’s strikes on Ras Laffan, Qatar’s LNG hub, will take three to five years to repair. The strikes on South Pars threaten the world’s largest natural gas reserve. Iran’s attacks on Gulf neighbors have damaged refineries, desalination plants, and port facilities across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait. And consider how much more damage is possible. After the US struck Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub, and Israel hit Iran’s largest petrochemical complex at South Pars, the world’s largest natural gas reserve, Iran’s military threatened to “deprive the U.S. and its allies of the region’s oil and gas for years.” As such, the $40 to $100 billion is a fraction of the $2 trillion or more that Goldman Sachs has estimated the war has already cost the global economy in lost output, destroyed infrastructure, and elevated energy prices. And continued war could lead Iran to cut off the flows of existing Saudi oil flows through its East-West pipeline. Iranian adviser Aliakbar Velayati warned that Iran views the Bab al-Mandab Strait off Yemen “with the same intensity as Hormuz” and that “the flow of energy and global trade can be disrupted with a single signal.” Please subscribe now to support Public's award-winning investigative journalism, read the rest of the article, and watch the full video.

Michael Shellenberger

61,902 views • 4 months ago

$Wall Street is WRONG about oil. They spent June convinced the crisis was over and a glut was coming. But what's actually the case: OPEC+ opened the taps. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the rest raised their quotas, Gulf producers ramped output, and the narrative flipped overnight from shortage to oversupply. Brent slid from its April high near $121 down into the low $70s, and traders decided the war was in the rearview mirror and started betting on cheap oil. But those extra barrels have to LEAVE the Persian Gulf somehow. And there is only ONE door. Roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz - about 20 million barrels every single day when things are normal. Right now nothing is normal. Even after the June ceasefire supposedly reopened the waterway, traffic is still running at just a third to a fifth of pre-war levels. Iran insists ships use its approved lanes, it wants to charge tolls Washington refuses to pay, and this week it also broke the ceasefire. 3 tankers were hit in a single stretch - a Qatari gas carrier left burning off Oman, a Saudi crude tanker damaged, a third struck by a drone. The Trump administration tore up the waiver that let Iran sell its own oil, Iran answered by hitting American bases in the Gulf, and crude jumped 5% in a day. So look at what the market is actually doing: It's counting on OPEC+ spare capacity to keep a lid on prices, while that spare capacity sits in the exact countries whose only real export route is on fire. The pipeline workarounds (Saudi Arabia's line to the Red Sea, the UAE's to Fujairah) carry only a fraction of Gulf crude. Everything else has to sail past missiles that can launch on a moment's notice. So why is crude still in the $70s instead of back at $120? Because two buffers have been absorbing the blow, and both are nearly spent. The first is China. It slashed crude imports from 11.39 million barrels a day in February, the last pre-war month, down to roughly 6.4 million in June - the lowest in a decade. That's 3 to 4 million barrels a day it simply stopped buying, which JP Morgan estimates is about 74% of the entire drop in global imports. And Beijing didn't suddenly need less oil... It leaned on close to a billion barrels it had spent more than a year stockpiling. But a stockpile runs out, and China has no interest in gutting its reserves the way Washington has gutted ours. The moment Beijing starts refilling later this year, that turns into fresh demand. The second is the United States. We've drained the SPR down to 319.5 million barrels, the lowest since 1983, after releasing 172 million barrels - around 40% of the stockpile - to hold prices down. Total US oil inventories just hit their lowest level since 1984. And keep in mind that those barrels were LENT out So they have to be bought back at a premium over the next few years, which is future buying pressure, not supply. A glut of barrels stranded behind a chokepoint is NOT a glut. It's a shortage the world has been hiding inside its emergency reserves, and those reserves are nearly empty. I've watched markets misprice geopolitical risk for decades, and it always looks the same. Everyone extrapolates the calm right up until the calm breaks, because pricing in the tail feels like paying for insurance you'll never use. Then the tail shows up and the move is violent, precisely because nobody was positioned for it. That's why I still like energy here. The downside is limited - geopolitics puts a floor under the price, and every burning tanker reminds you where that floor is. The upside is a gap higher every time the strait seizes. That's about as asymmetric a setup as this market offers, and Wall Street is busy pricing the opposite. Open taps mean nothing if the barrels can't reach the sea. Are you listening?$

Wall Street is WRONG about oil. They spent June convinced the crisis was over and a glut was coming. But what's actually the case: OPEC+ opened the taps. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the rest raised their quotas, Gulf producers ramped output, and the narrative flipped overnight from shortage to oversupply. Brent slid from its April high near $121 down into the low $70s, and traders decided the war was in the rearview mirror and started betting on cheap oil. But those extra barrels have to LEAVE the Persian Gulf somehow. And there is only ONE door. Roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz - about 20 million barrels every single day when things are normal. Right now nothing is normal. Even after the June ceasefire supposedly reopened the waterway, traffic is still running at just a third to a fifth of pre-war levels. Iran insists ships use its approved lanes, it wants to charge tolls Washington refuses to pay, and this week it also broke the ceasefire. 3 tankers were hit in a single stretch - a Qatari gas carrier left burning off Oman, a Saudi crude tanker damaged, a third struck by a drone. The Trump administration tore up the waiver that let Iran sell its own oil, Iran answered by hitting American bases in the Gulf, and crude jumped 5% in a day. So look at what the market is actually doing: It's counting on OPEC+ spare capacity to keep a lid on prices, while that spare capacity sits in the exact countries whose only real export route is on fire. The pipeline workarounds (Saudi Arabia's line to the Red Sea, the UAE's to Fujairah) carry only a fraction of Gulf crude. Everything else has to sail past missiles that can launch on a moment's notice. So why is crude still in the $70s instead of back at $120? Because two buffers have been absorbing the blow, and both are nearly spent. The first is China. It slashed crude imports from 11.39 million barrels a day in February, the last pre-war month, down to roughly 6.4 million in June - the lowest in a decade. That's 3 to 4 million barrels a day it simply stopped buying, which JP Morgan estimates is about 74% of the entire drop in global imports. And Beijing didn't suddenly need less oil... It leaned on close to a billion barrels it had spent more than a year stockpiling. But a stockpile runs out, and China has no interest in gutting its reserves the way Washington has gutted ours. The moment Beijing starts refilling later this year, that turns into fresh demand. The second is the United States. We've drained the SPR down to 319.5 million barrels, the lowest since 1983, after releasing 172 million barrels - around 40% of the stockpile - to hold prices down. Total US oil inventories just hit their lowest level since 1984. And keep in mind that those barrels were LENT out So they have to be bought back at a premium over the next few years, which is future buying pressure, not supply. A glut of barrels stranded behind a chokepoint is NOT a glut. It's a shortage the world has been hiding inside its emergency reserves, and those reserves are nearly empty. I've watched markets misprice geopolitical risk for decades, and it always looks the same. Everyone extrapolates the calm right up until the calm breaks, because pricing in the tail feels like paying for insurance you'll never use. Then the tail shows up and the move is violent, precisely because nobody was positioned for it. That's why I still like energy here. The downside is limited - geopolitics puts a floor under the price, and every burning tanker reminds you where that floor is. The upside is a gap higher every time the strait seizes. That's about as asymmetric a setup as this market offers, and Wall Street is busy pricing the opposite. Open taps mean nothing if the barrels can't reach the sea. Are you listening?

George Noble

75,041 views • 1 month ago

Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have reduced gasoline production in Russia by approximately a quarter compared to June of last year, while emergency shutdowns at plants have also decreased exports of petroleum products. For the first time in many years, Moscow is preparing to import gasoline by sea, and the government has established a separate interagency task force to ensure fuel supplies to the regions. On June 28, Putin stated that the top priority for fuel distribution is the army and support for the agricultural sector ahead of the harvest. According to estimates from the Russian ministry of agriculture, the country requires about 4.7 million tons of diesel fuel and 630-690 thousand tons of gasoline annually to carry out all seasonal field work. The spring sowing campaign has already consumed nearly 2 million tons of diesel. Harvesting, autumn field work, and grain transportation require another approximately 2-3 million tons of diesel, with peak demand concentrated in July-September. Putin claims that current gasoline reserves stand at around 1.7 million tons. We know Putin constantly lies, but even these volumes are insufficient to simultaneously meet military needs, the agricultural sector, and civilian market demand without additional resource redistribution. Let’s see if Putin can get help from abroad. Belarus is the most accessible source of supply. Throughout 2025-2026, Minsk has increased deliveries of gasoline and diesel to Russia to several tens of thousands of tons per month. However, Belarus’s capabilities are limited by its two oil refineries and its own domestic demand. Even a significant increase in exports would cover only a small portion of Russia’s seasonal needs. Kazakhstan is considering supplying Russia with about 50 thousand tons of AI-92 gasoline. At the same time, the country is carrying out repairs at the Atyrau Refinery, entering its own high-demand harvest season, and maintains export restrictions on gasoline and diesel. Even if the delivery occurs, its volume will not have a significant impact on the overall balance of the Russian market. China theoretically has the greatest potential to help Russia. According to expert estimates, Chinese companies could supply up to 350 thousand tons of gasoline and about 100 thousand tons of diesel per month. However, the main obstacle remains financial settlements, particularly the risk of secondary sanctions. Sea imports from Asia can only be used as a temporary measure. They are more expensive than domestic production, require more complex logistics, and cannot quickly compensate for the losses from major Russian refineries. The geographical factor must also be taken into account. Supplies from China can primarily cover the Far East and parts of Eastern Siberia. Sea imports would arrive at western ports. Meanwhile, the greatest need for diesel fuel is in the agricultural regions of European Russia - the Central Black Earth region, the Volga region, Krasnodar region, Rostov region, and Stavropol region - where harvesting is underway and the main grain production is concentrated. However, Ukrainian strikes target not only refineries but also oil depots. This means that even with increased imports, there will be nowhere to store large volumes of fuel. ‼️ Thus, external assistance will not save Russia from a fuel shortage. What Russia can do - and is already doing - is to lower fuel quality requirements, allowing the production of gasoline and diesel to lower environmental standards. In parallel, the Russian government is already discussing the possibility of a complete ban on diesel exports. There will not be enough gasoline and diesel for everyone in Russia, but according to Putin, there will definitely be enough for the army. And therefore, Ukrainian drones still have a sufficiently long list of targets.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have reduced gasoline production in Russia by approximately a quarter compared to June of last year, while emergency shutdowns at plants have also decreased exports of petroleum products. For the first time in many years, Moscow is preparing to import gasoline by sea, and the government has established a separate interagency task force to ensure fuel supplies to the regions. On June 28, Putin stated that the top priority for fuel distribution is the army and support for the agricultural sector ahead of the harvest. According to estimates from the Russian ministry of agriculture, the country requires about 4.7 million tons of diesel fuel and 630-690 thousand tons of gasoline annually to carry out all seasonal field work. The spring sowing campaign has already consumed nearly 2 million tons of diesel. Harvesting, autumn field work, and grain transportation require another approximately 2-3 million tons of diesel, with peak demand concentrated in July-September. Putin claims that current gasoline reserves stand at around 1.7 million tons. We know Putin constantly lies, but even these volumes are insufficient to simultaneously meet military needs, the agricultural sector, and civilian market demand without additional resource redistribution. Let’s see if Putin can get help from abroad. Belarus is the most accessible source of supply. Throughout 2025-2026, Minsk has increased deliveries of gasoline and diesel to Russia to several tens of thousands of tons per month. However, Belarus’s capabilities are limited by its two oil refineries and its own domestic demand. Even a significant increase in exports would cover only a small portion of Russia’s seasonal needs. Kazakhstan is considering supplying Russia with about 50 thousand tons of AI-92 gasoline. At the same time, the country is carrying out repairs at the Atyrau Refinery, entering its own high-demand harvest season, and maintains export restrictions on gasoline and diesel. Even if the delivery occurs, its volume will not have a significant impact on the overall balance of the Russian market. China theoretically has the greatest potential to help Russia. According to expert estimates, Chinese companies could supply up to 350 thousand tons of gasoline and about 100 thousand tons of diesel per month. However, the main obstacle remains financial settlements, particularly the risk of secondary sanctions. Sea imports from Asia can only be used as a temporary measure. They are more expensive than domestic production, require more complex logistics, and cannot quickly compensate for the losses from major Russian refineries. The geographical factor must also be taken into account. Supplies from China can primarily cover the Far East and parts of Eastern Siberia. Sea imports would arrive at western ports. Meanwhile, the greatest need for diesel fuel is in the agricultural regions of European Russia - the Central Black Earth region, the Volga region, Krasnodar region, Rostov region, and Stavropol region - where harvesting is underway and the main grain production is concentrated. However, Ukrainian strikes target not only refineries but also oil depots. This means that even with increased imports, there will be nowhere to store large volumes of fuel. ‼️ Thus, external assistance will not save Russia from a fuel shortage. What Russia can do - and is already doing - is to lower fuel quality requirements, allowing the production of gasoline and diesel to lower environmental standards. In parallel, the Russian government is already discussing the possibility of a complete ban on diesel exports. There will not be enough gasoline and diesel for everyone in Russia, but according to Putin, there will definitely be enough for the army. And therefore, Ukrainian drones still have a sufficiently long list of targets.

Anton Gerashchenko

83,908 views • 1 month ago

ART BERMAN ON THE BIGGEST BLUNDER IN HISTORY: GEOLOGIST WARNS OF JULY CRUNCH Nate Hagens welcomes petroleum geologist Art Berman back for another truly fascinating conversation. With over 40 years of oil and gas industry experience and deep expertise on US shale plays, Art delivers a sobering deep dive into the data surrounding the Strait of Hormuz closure. What he reveals about impending shortages, system risks, and the true scale of this conflict will change how you see the months ahead. THE SCALE OF THE CRISIS ➡️ Roughly 21 million barrels per day of oil and refined products normally flow through Hormuz — exactly what the United States consumes daily. ➡️ As of now pretty close to zero is getting through, with only Iranian oil moving at all. ➡️ That leaves about 11 to 12 million barrels offline — roughly 11% of global supply suddenly gone. WORSE THAN THE 1970s SHOCKS ➡️ The rate of loss is up to 100 times greater than the 1979 Iranian Revolution shock when normalized for daily impact. ➡️ Leads and lags mean the US has not felt the full pinch yet but places like East Asia and Africa already have. ➡️ Strategic reserves are being drawn down at the maximum physical rate of about 2 million barrels per day. WHY JULY LOOKS BRUTAL ➡️ Even if peace breaks out tomorrow, hundreds of tankers parked inside Hormuz will take 2 to 3 months to reach destinations. ➡️ Production shut-ins, mines in the strait, insurance issues, and repositioning delays all add months more. ➡️ By July gasoline and especially diesel prices will reach levels where many people simply cannot afford to fill their tanks. THE DIESEL HEART ATTACK ➡️ Diesel powers ships, trains, trucks, farms, mining — basically the entire global economy. ➡️ Spot prices in places like Singapore have already hit the equivalent of $210 per barrel. ➡️ Higher diesel costs cascade into everything you buy, from groceries to delivered goods. THE US OIL ILLUSION ➡️ America is a net energy exporter on paper but remains a significant net importer of crude oil. ➡️ We export light shale oil ideal for gasoline but must import heavy oil to make enough diesel and jet fuel. ➡️ Our complex refineries are specifically designed around this mix — there is no quick fix. THE REFINERY SQUEEZE ➡️ Physical oil is trading at $140–$160 per barrel while futures sit much lower. ➡️ Refineries need strong margins to operate profitably at these prices. ➡️ If margins collapse, throughput will be cut, making shortages even worse regardless of crude availability. PEAK MATERIALS REALITY ➡️ Steel, cement and fertilizer production have already been declining for years. ➡️ Plastics are flattening. ➡️ These four pillars support modern civilization — their peak means we were already slowing before Hormuz. THE RENEWABLES LIMIT ➡️ Solar panels, wind turbines and EVs still require massive steel, plastics and concrete. ➡️ Critical minerals are overwhelmingly controlled by China. ➡️ We are simply trading Persian Gulf dependence for Chinese dependence. THE BOTTOM LINE Art Berman and Nate Hagens lay out why this conflict represents the biggest military, geopolitical, and economic blunder in modern history — driven by energy blindness and a failure to grasp system implications. Even in the best case we are screwed through the rest of the year no matter what happens next. HT: YouTube Nate Hagens Art Berman Nate Hagens #TheGreatSimplification #ArtBerman #HormuzCrisis #OilShortage #DieselCrunch #EnergyBlunder #GreatSimplification

ART BERMAN ON THE BIGGEST BLUNDER IN HISTORY: GEOLOGIST WARNS OF JULY CRUNCH Nate Hagens welcomes petroleum geologist Art Berman back for another truly fascinating conversation. With over 40 years of oil and gas industry experience and deep expertise on US shale plays, Art delivers a sobering deep dive into the data surrounding the Strait of Hormuz closure. What he reveals about impending shortages, system risks, and the true scale of this conflict will change how you see the months ahead. THE SCALE OF THE CRISIS ➡️ Roughly 21 million barrels per day of oil and refined products normally flow through Hormuz — exactly what the United States consumes daily. ➡️ As of now pretty close to zero is getting through, with only Iranian oil moving at all. ➡️ That leaves about 11 to 12 million barrels offline — roughly 11% of global supply suddenly gone. WORSE THAN THE 1970s SHOCKS ➡️ The rate of loss is up to 100 times greater than the 1979 Iranian Revolution shock when normalized for daily impact. ➡️ Leads and lags mean the US has not felt the full pinch yet but places like East Asia and Africa already have. ➡️ Strategic reserves are being drawn down at the maximum physical rate of about 2 million barrels per day. WHY JULY LOOKS BRUTAL ➡️ Even if peace breaks out tomorrow, hundreds of tankers parked inside Hormuz will take 2 to 3 months to reach destinations. ➡️ Production shut-ins, mines in the strait, insurance issues, and repositioning delays all add months more. ➡️ By July gasoline and especially diesel prices will reach levels where many people simply cannot afford to fill their tanks. THE DIESEL HEART ATTACK ➡️ Diesel powers ships, trains, trucks, farms, mining — basically the entire global economy. ➡️ Spot prices in places like Singapore have already hit the equivalent of $210 per barrel. ➡️ Higher diesel costs cascade into everything you buy, from groceries to delivered goods. THE US OIL ILLUSION ➡️ America is a net energy exporter on paper but remains a significant net importer of crude oil. ➡️ We export light shale oil ideal for gasoline but must import heavy oil to make enough diesel and jet fuel. ➡️ Our complex refineries are specifically designed around this mix — there is no quick fix. THE REFINERY SQUEEZE ➡️ Physical oil is trading at $140–$160 per barrel while futures sit much lower. ➡️ Refineries need strong margins to operate profitably at these prices. ➡️ If margins collapse, throughput will be cut, making shortages even worse regardless of crude availability. PEAK MATERIALS REALITY ➡️ Steel, cement and fertilizer production have already been declining for years. ➡️ Plastics are flattening. ➡️ These four pillars support modern civilization — their peak means we were already slowing before Hormuz. THE RENEWABLES LIMIT ➡️ Solar panels, wind turbines and EVs still require massive steel, plastics and concrete. ➡️ Critical minerals are overwhelmingly controlled by China. ➡️ We are simply trading Persian Gulf dependence for Chinese dependence. THE BOTTOM LINE Art Berman and Nate Hagens lay out why this conflict represents the biggest military, geopolitical, and economic blunder in modern history — driven by energy blindness and a failure to grasp system implications. Even in the best case we are screwed through the rest of the year no matter what happens next. HT: YouTube Nate Hagens Art Berman Nate Hagens #TheGreatSimplification #ArtBerman #HormuzCrisis #OilShortage #DieselCrunch #EnergyBlunder #GreatSimplification

Mark

57,339 views • 3 months ago

$"900,000 BARRELS JUST ARRIVED IN JAPAN": President Trump's Truth Social Post Lands as Beijing's Hormuz Strategy Officially Implodes — Inside the Tanker That Just Rewrote the Indo-Pacific Energy Map The M/V Otis didn't just dock in Tokyo Bay. It docked on top of the CCP's entire wedge-strategy thesis. "HUGE MOMENT! Asia is getting their oil from the United States now. 900,000 barrels just arrived in Japan. America will lead the charge on oil dominance." President Trump's post — accompanied by an ANN News screenshot of an American crude tanker easing into Tokyo Bay at dawn — is doing the kind of work that ten policy white papers cannot. It is taking a moment of strategic transformation and stamping it onto the public consciousness in a single image: U.S. oil. Japanese port. Middle East bypassed. And for once, the substance behind the showmanship checks out. What Actually Happened in Tokyo Bay The tanker is the Suezmax-class M/V Otis (IMO 9408217). On the morning of Sunday, April 26, she eased up to an offshore jetty in Tokyo Bay carrying approximately 910,000 barrels of Texas light crude oil bound for a refinery in Chiba Prefecture. The cargo was transferred through an undersea pipeline to a facility operated by Cosmo Oil, a subsidiary of Cosmo Energy Holdings, where it will be processed into petroleum products including gasoline for domestic distribution. The voyage itself is the part that matters strategically. The Otis loaded in Texas on March 22 and completed a roughly 35-day voyage through the Panama Canal — one of the largest direct U.S. crude deliveries to Japan in years. The alternative routing — Cape of Good Hope, which takes about 55 days — was bypassed in favor of the Panama Canal, cutting transit time by roughly 20 days. This is the operational answer to a question Beijing assumed had no answer: Can American crude actually reach Japanese refineries fast enough, in sufficient volume, to matter when Hormuz is contested? The Otis is the receipt. The Real Number Is Not 910,000. It's 4x. A single tanker, as honest reporting from noted, amounts to less than one day's consumption in Japan. Taken in isolation, 910,000 barrels is a symbol, not a strategy. The strategy lives in the trendline. According to Japanese government documents reviewed by Reuters, Japanese imports of U.S. crude oil for May will be four times higher than they were a year earlier — up from a May 2025 baseline of 189,000 barrels daily, which represented about 8% of total imports that month. Tokyo also expects that by May, it will have secured half of its imports from suppliers outside the Middle East, with the United States the largest among those alternative suppliers, joined by Malaysia, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Nigeria, and Angola. For a country that historically sourced as much as 95% of its oil from the Middle East, this is the fastest reorientation of a G7 energy supply chain in the post-Cold War era. The Otis is the first tanker in a queue, not the last. The $56 Billion Bet Behind the Tanker None of this is happening on autopilot. On March 14, at the Asia-Pacific Energy Security Forum in Tokyo, Japan signed agreements worth up to $56 billion with the United States covering oil, natural gas, and LNG purchases and investments — sitting inside the broader framework from the 2025 U.S.-Japan trade agreement, under which Japan pledged $550 billion in U.S. investments, with energy as a key pillar. Five days later, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi — Japan's first woman prime minister and one of the most China-skeptical leaders Tokyo has produced in a generation — walked into the Oval Office and, in front of cameras, embraced President Trump. The visit had a few rough edges: Trump's unprompted Pearl Harbor reference, made when a Japanese reporter asked why allies hadn't been warned about the February 28 strike on Iran, appeared to take Takaichi aback. But on substance the meeting did exactly what an alliance summit is supposed to do — it pre-positioned the energy pivot the Otis would later make material. By May 19, that pivot had widened into a trilateral. In Seoul, President Lee Jae-myung and Prime Minister Takaichi agreed to expand LNG cooperation under the bilateral Supply and Demand Cooperation Agreement signed in March, and to deepen information sharing and communication channels related to crude oil supply, demand, and stockpiling — explicitly framed by Seoul as a vehicle for South Korea–Japan and South Korea–U.S.–Japan cooperation for regional peace and stability. The Hormuz shock was supposed to fracture this triangle. Instead, it welded it. What Beijing Got Wrong — And Why It Matters The Chinese Communist Party's strategic miscalculation in the Hormuz file was not merely tactical. It was conceptual. For roughly a decade, Beijing's working thesis on Asian energy security has been that the United States cannot credibly underwrite the region from outside the Persian Gulf, and that any Middle East flashpoint would therefore translate into political leverage for China — the buyer of last resort with the deepest stockpiles, the longest supply contracts, and the most flexible sanctions tolerance. The thesis has just failed three stress tests at once. First, the logistics held. Alaskan crude can reach Japanese refineries via Pacific routes about a week faster than Middle Eastern shipments, and Texas crude via Panama — as the Otis proved — gets there in 35 days. Tokyo is now actively weighing expanded Alaskan imports and a joint U.S.-Japan strategic crude reserve arrangement. Second, the political will held. Takaichi did not hedge. She unilaterally began releasing 15 days' worth of private-sector reserves from March 16, followed by a month's worth of state-held oil, and committed Japan to participating in the IEA's coordinated 400-million-barrel release, with Japan contributing 80 million barrels — 54 million in crude and 26 million in oil products. Third — and most damaging to Beijing's strategic narrative — China's own position deteriorated. While Tokyo was diversifying westward across the Pacific, Iran continued sending the bulk of the crude still moving — roughly 1.22 million barrels per day — to China, after a record 2.16 million bpd in February that was entirely destined for Beijing as it amassed reserves. The CCP's "energy security" turned out to be a deeper handcuff to a sanctioned, militarily degraded supplier whose primary export terminal — Kharg Island, the departure point for roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports — has been struck by U.S. forces. Beijing did not de-risk. It concentrated risk. And when Trump publicly pressured Beijing to help secure Hormuz on the grounds that 90% of Chinese oil flowed through it, Chinese state spokespeople were reduced to publicly emphasizing that the country had "enough" energy reserves — an answer that managed to be both defensive and, in strategic terms, an admission. The Honest Caveats Serious analysis requires acknowledging what the headline glosses over. The Otis cargo is, by Japan's own ministry, less than one day's consumption. U.S. crude exports cannot fully substitute for Middle Eastern barrels: industry analysts cited by Axios put the realistic monthly ceiling for U.S. crude exports in the 5.5 million bpd range, with Gulf Coast port and terminal capacity acting as a hard infrastructure limit. The Iran war has been genuinely costly — Brent crude topped $110 a barrel in late March before retreating to roughly $98 by late May — and the global growth picture has been marked down accordingly. There are also legitimate technical questions about crude grade compatibility (U.S. light sweet vs. Middle Eastern medium sour) that Japanese refineries will need to manage. The diversification away from Hormuz is real, but it is not free, not frictionless, and not complete. These caveats sharpen the conclusion. They do not invert it. The Strategic Bottom Line Three months ago, the Hormuz file was supposed to be the lever that pried Tokyo loose from Washington. The arithmetic looked plausible on paper: Japan and South Korea are the third- and fourth-largest destinations for crude moving through the Strait of Hormuz, behind only China and India. Pain there should, in theory, have created political space for Beijing. It didn't. The pain became the catalyst. A $56 billion energy package. A four-fold surge in U.S. crude bound for Japanese refineries. A Suezmax tanker easing into Tokyo Bay at dawn carrying 910,000 barrels from Texas. A trilateral Tokyo–Seoul–Washington cooperation framework formalized in the middle of a war Beijing was counting on to crack it. There is a lesson here for anyone still treating CCP economic statecraft as inevitable: leverage that depends on your rival having no alternative evaporates the moment one is built. Tokyo built one. Washington underwrote it. Trump is now broadcasting it. And the manifests in Yokohama harbor are the proof. The alliance held. The wedge failed. The map has been redrawn — and the next tanker is already loading. Original article by me Aric Chen. Views are my own — welcome to discuss! © 2026 Aric Chen. All rights reserved. Any unauthorized use will be reported under the DMCA.$

"900,000 BARRELS JUST ARRIVED IN JAPAN": President Trump's Truth Social Post Lands as Beijing's Hormuz Strategy Officially Implodes — Inside the Tanker That Just Rewrote the Indo-Pacific Energy Map The M/V Otis didn't just dock in Tokyo Bay. It docked on top of the CCP's entire wedge-strategy thesis. "HUGE MOMENT! Asia is getting their oil from the United States now. 900,000 barrels just arrived in Japan. America will lead the charge on oil dominance." President Trump's post — accompanied by an ANN News screenshot of an American crude tanker easing into Tokyo Bay at dawn — is doing the kind of work that ten policy white papers cannot. It is taking a moment of strategic transformation and stamping it onto the public consciousness in a single image: U.S. oil. Japanese port. Middle East bypassed. And for once, the substance behind the showmanship checks out. What Actually Happened in Tokyo Bay The tanker is the Suezmax-class M/V Otis (IMO 9408217). On the morning of Sunday, April 26, she eased up to an offshore jetty in Tokyo Bay carrying approximately 910,000 barrels of Texas light crude oil bound for a refinery in Chiba Prefecture. The cargo was transferred through an undersea pipeline to a facility operated by Cosmo Oil, a subsidiary of Cosmo Energy Holdings, where it will be processed into petroleum products including gasoline for domestic distribution. The voyage itself is the part that matters strategically. The Otis loaded in Texas on March 22 and completed a roughly 35-day voyage through the Panama Canal — one of the largest direct U.S. crude deliveries to Japan in years. The alternative routing — Cape of Good Hope, which takes about 55 days — was bypassed in favor of the Panama Canal, cutting transit time by roughly 20 days. This is the operational answer to a question Beijing assumed had no answer: Can American crude actually reach Japanese refineries fast enough, in sufficient volume, to matter when Hormuz is contested? The Otis is the receipt. The Real Number Is Not 910,000. It's 4x. A single tanker, as honest reporting from noted, amounts to less than one day's consumption in Japan. Taken in isolation, 910,000 barrels is a symbol, not a strategy. The strategy lives in the trendline. According to Japanese government documents reviewed by Reuters, Japanese imports of U.S. crude oil for May will be four times higher than they were a year earlier — up from a May 2025 baseline of 189,000 barrels daily, which represented about 8% of total imports that month. Tokyo also expects that by May, it will have secured half of its imports from suppliers outside the Middle East, with the United States the largest among those alternative suppliers, joined by Malaysia, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Nigeria, and Angola. For a country that historically sourced as much as 95% of its oil from the Middle East, this is the fastest reorientation of a G7 energy supply chain in the post-Cold War era. The Otis is the first tanker in a queue, not the last. The $56 Billion Bet Behind the Tanker None of this is happening on autopilot. On March 14, at the Asia-Pacific Energy Security Forum in Tokyo, Japan signed agreements worth up to $56 billion with the United States covering oil, natural gas, and LNG purchases and investments — sitting inside the broader framework from the 2025 U.S.-Japan trade agreement, under which Japan pledged $550 billion in U.S. investments, with energy as a key pillar. Five days later, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi — Japan's first woman prime minister and one of the most China-skeptical leaders Tokyo has produced in a generation — walked into the Oval Office and, in front of cameras, embraced President Trump. The visit had a few rough edges: Trump's unprompted Pearl Harbor reference, made when a Japanese reporter asked why allies hadn't been warned about the February 28 strike on Iran, appeared to take Takaichi aback. But on substance the meeting did exactly what an alliance summit is supposed to do — it pre-positioned the energy pivot the Otis would later make material. By May 19, that pivot had widened into a trilateral. In Seoul, President Lee Jae-myung and Prime Minister Takaichi agreed to expand LNG cooperation under the bilateral Supply and Demand Cooperation Agreement signed in March, and to deepen information sharing and communication channels related to crude oil supply, demand, and stockpiling — explicitly framed by Seoul as a vehicle for South Korea–Japan and South Korea–U.S.–Japan cooperation for regional peace and stability. The Hormuz shock was supposed to fracture this triangle. Instead, it welded it. What Beijing Got Wrong — And Why It Matters The Chinese Communist Party's strategic miscalculation in the Hormuz file was not merely tactical. It was conceptual. For roughly a decade, Beijing's working thesis on Asian energy security has been that the United States cannot credibly underwrite the region from outside the Persian Gulf, and that any Middle East flashpoint would therefore translate into political leverage for China — the buyer of last resort with the deepest stockpiles, the longest supply contracts, and the most flexible sanctions tolerance. The thesis has just failed three stress tests at once. First, the logistics held. Alaskan crude can reach Japanese refineries via Pacific routes about a week faster than Middle Eastern shipments, and Texas crude via Panama — as the Otis proved — gets there in 35 days. Tokyo is now actively weighing expanded Alaskan imports and a joint U.S.-Japan strategic crude reserve arrangement. Second, the political will held. Takaichi did not hedge. She unilaterally began releasing 15 days' worth of private-sector reserves from March 16, followed by a month's worth of state-held oil, and committed Japan to participating in the IEA's coordinated 400-million-barrel release, with Japan contributing 80 million barrels — 54 million in crude and 26 million in oil products. Third — and most damaging to Beijing's strategic narrative — China's own position deteriorated. While Tokyo was diversifying westward across the Pacific, Iran continued sending the bulk of the crude still moving — roughly 1.22 million barrels per day — to China, after a record 2.16 million bpd in February that was entirely destined for Beijing as it amassed reserves. The CCP's "energy security" turned out to be a deeper handcuff to a sanctioned, militarily degraded supplier whose primary export terminal — Kharg Island, the departure point for roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports — has been struck by U.S. forces. Beijing did not de-risk. It concentrated risk. And when Trump publicly pressured Beijing to help secure Hormuz on the grounds that 90% of Chinese oil flowed through it, Chinese state spokespeople were reduced to publicly emphasizing that the country had "enough" energy reserves — an answer that managed to be both defensive and, in strategic terms, an admission. The Honest Caveats Serious analysis requires acknowledging what the headline glosses over. The Otis cargo is, by Japan's own ministry, less than one day's consumption. U.S. crude exports cannot fully substitute for Middle Eastern barrels: industry analysts cited by Axios put the realistic monthly ceiling for U.S. crude exports in the 5.5 million bpd range, with Gulf Coast port and terminal capacity acting as a hard infrastructure limit. The Iran war has been genuinely costly — Brent crude topped $110 a barrel in late March before retreating to roughly $98 by late May — and the global growth picture has been marked down accordingly. There are also legitimate technical questions about crude grade compatibility (U.S. light sweet vs. Middle Eastern medium sour) that Japanese refineries will need to manage. The diversification away from Hormuz is real, but it is not free, not frictionless, and not complete. These caveats sharpen the conclusion. They do not invert it. The Strategic Bottom Line Three months ago, the Hormuz file was supposed to be the lever that pried Tokyo loose from Washington. The arithmetic looked plausible on paper: Japan and South Korea are the third- and fourth-largest destinations for crude moving through the Strait of Hormuz, behind only China and India. Pain there should, in theory, have created political space for Beijing. It didn't. The pain became the catalyst. A $56 billion energy package. A four-fold surge in U.S. crude bound for Japanese refineries. A Suezmax tanker easing into Tokyo Bay at dawn carrying 910,000 barrels from Texas. A trilateral Tokyo–Seoul–Washington cooperation framework formalized in the middle of a war Beijing was counting on to crack it. There is a lesson here for anyone still treating CCP economic statecraft as inevitable: leverage that depends on your rival having no alternative evaporates the moment one is built. Tokyo built one. Washington underwrote it. Trump is now broadcasting it. And the manifests in Yokohama harbor are the proof. The alliance held. The wedge failed. The map has been redrawn — and the next tanker is already loading. Original article by me Aric Chen. Views are my own — welcome to discuss! © 2026 Aric Chen. All rights reserved. Any unauthorized use will be reported under the DMCA.

Aric Chen

17,007 views • 3 months ago

$The Hormuz crisis is the precipitating factor in the current energy crisis, but the underlying cause is too little oil and gas production outside the Persian Gulf. Had the world spent the past decade building the oil, gas, LNG, pipeline, and fertilizer infrastructure that engineers designed and companies proposed, the Hormuz crisis would still be a serious geopolitical event, but it would not threaten to cause a recession. North America — The Atlantic Coast Pipeline, a 600-mile natural gas line from West Virginia to North Carolina, saw its cost double from $4.5 billion to $8 billion during years of environmental litigation before Duke Energy and Dominion Energy cancelled it in July 2020. — The Constitution Pipeline from Pennsylvania to New York died the same year. — The PennEast Pipeline won its case at the United States Supreme Court in 2021 and still could not get built because New Jersey refused to issue state permits. — In Canada, TransCanada abandoned the $15.7 billion Energy East pipeline in 2017 after the National Energy Board required an unprecedented review of upstream and downstream emissions. — In January 2024, the Biden administration paused all pending approvals for LNG export terminals shipping to non-free-trade-agreement countries, freezing projects representing tens of billions of cubic feet per day of potential capacity. — Venture Global’s CP2 terminal in Louisiana, designed for 20 million tonnes per annum, sat in regulatory limbo for over a year. — NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG in Texas, with 48 MTPA of planned capacity, stalled alongside it. — PTT Global Chemical’s proposed $10 billion ethane cracker in Belmont County, Ohio, first announced in 2015, remains on indefinite hold after failing to attract financing partners amid climate-driven investor sentiment. — Across the US Gulf Coast, nearly 60% of planned plastic and petrochemical production projects sit on hold. — LNG Canada, the Shell-led terminal at Kitimat, British Columbia, took over six years from construction start to first cargo, with its pipeline running 263% over budget. Environmental review, Indigenous disputes, and contractor cost escalation all contributed. — Pieridae Energy’s Goldboro LNG project in Nova Scotia, a 10 MTPA facility first proposed in 2012, was abandoned in November 2023 after more than a decade of permitting and financing obstacles. Australia — Australia’s Santos’s Barossa gas project was halted midway through construction after a Federal Court ruling overturned its environmental approval. — Woodside’s Scarborough project faces ongoing litigation from the Australian Conservation Foundation seeking to block it on climate grounds. Africa — Perhaps nowhere has the damage been more consequential than in Africa. At COP26 in 2021, wealthy nations pledged to halt overseas development finance for gas projects, a commitment that fell hardest on the continent least responsible for climate change and most in need of energy infrastructure. — The World Bank stopped financing oil and gas extraction in 2019 and imposed restrictive conditions on downstream gas projects. — The European Investment Bank announced a complete ban on unabated fossil fuel financing by the end of 2021, with its president declaring that “gas is over.” — At least 21 other development finance institutions followed suit. As a result: — TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG project sat under force majeure for four and a half years after the UK Export Credit Agency and other backers withdrew climate-motivated financing. — The East African Crude Oil Pipeline lost financing commitments from more than 30 major international banks under pressure from climatists. Europe — France prevented the completion of a third gas interconnector with Spain, citing climate neutrality goals. — The United Kingdom imposed a moratorium on fracking in 2019 despite sitting atop one of Europe’s most promising shale gas formations. — Germany, which shuttered its last three nuclear plants in April 2023, compounded its gas dependency by refusing to develop domestic shale resources. — CF Industries permanently shut the UK’s largest ammonia plant at Billingham, a facility that also produced 60% of Britain’s food-grade CO2. — Yara International curtailed output across plants in France, Italy, and Belgium before permanently closing its 400,000 tonne per year ammonia facility at Tertre, Belgium, in October 2024. These closures occurred because European climate policy made gas too expensive for the domestic industry to survive.$

The Hormuz crisis is the precipitating factor in the current energy crisis, but the underlying cause is too little oil and gas production outside the Persian Gulf. Had the world spent the past decade building the oil, gas, LNG, pipeline, and fertilizer infrastructure that engineers designed and companies proposed, the Hormuz crisis would still be a serious geopolitical event, but it would not threaten to cause a recession. North America — The Atlantic Coast Pipeline, a 600-mile natural gas line from West Virginia to North Carolina, saw its cost double from $4.5 billion to $8 billion during years of environmental litigation before Duke Energy and Dominion Energy cancelled it in July 2020. — The Constitution Pipeline from Pennsylvania to New York died the same year. — The PennEast Pipeline won its case at the United States Supreme Court in 2021 and still could not get built because New Jersey refused to issue state permits. — In Canada, TransCanada abandoned the $15.7 billion Energy East pipeline in 2017 after the National Energy Board required an unprecedented review of upstream and downstream emissions. — In January 2024, the Biden administration paused all pending approvals for LNG export terminals shipping to non-free-trade-agreement countries, freezing projects representing tens of billions of cubic feet per day of potential capacity. — Venture Global’s CP2 terminal in Louisiana, designed for 20 million tonnes per annum, sat in regulatory limbo for over a year. — NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG in Texas, with 48 MTPA of planned capacity, stalled alongside it. — PTT Global Chemical’s proposed $10 billion ethane cracker in Belmont County, Ohio, first announced in 2015, remains on indefinite hold after failing to attract financing partners amid climate-driven investor sentiment. — Across the US Gulf Coast, nearly 60% of planned plastic and petrochemical production projects sit on hold. — LNG Canada, the Shell-led terminal at Kitimat, British Columbia, took over six years from construction start to first cargo, with its pipeline running 263% over budget. Environmental review, Indigenous disputes, and contractor cost escalation all contributed. — Pieridae Energy’s Goldboro LNG project in Nova Scotia, a 10 MTPA facility first proposed in 2012, was abandoned in November 2023 after more than a decade of permitting and financing obstacles. Australia — Australia’s Santos’s Barossa gas project was halted midway through construction after a Federal Court ruling overturned its environmental approval. — Woodside’s Scarborough project faces ongoing litigation from the Australian Conservation Foundation seeking to block it on climate grounds. Africa — Perhaps nowhere has the damage been more consequential than in Africa. At COP26 in 2021, wealthy nations pledged to halt overseas development finance for gas projects, a commitment that fell hardest on the continent least responsible for climate change and most in need of energy infrastructure. — The World Bank stopped financing oil and gas extraction in 2019 and imposed restrictive conditions on downstream gas projects. — The European Investment Bank announced a complete ban on unabated fossil fuel financing by the end of 2021, with its president declaring that “gas is over.” — At least 21 other development finance institutions followed suit. As a result: — TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG project sat under force majeure for four and a half years after the UK Export Credit Agency and other backers withdrew climate-motivated financing. — The East African Crude Oil Pipeline lost financing commitments from more than 30 major international banks under pressure from climatists. Europe — France prevented the completion of a third gas interconnector with Spain, citing climate neutrality goals. — The United Kingdom imposed a moratorium on fracking in 2019 despite sitting atop one of Europe’s most promising shale gas formations. — Germany, which shuttered its last three nuclear plants in April 2023, compounded its gas dependency by refusing to develop domestic shale resources. — CF Industries permanently shut the UK’s largest ammonia plant at Billingham, a facility that also produced 60% of Britain’s food-grade CO2. — Yara International curtailed output across plants in France, Italy, and Belgium before permanently closing its 400,000 tonne per year ammonia facility at Tertre, Belgium, in October 2024. These closures occurred because European climate policy made gas too expensive for the domestic industry to survive.

Michael Shellenberger

623,269 views • 5 months ago