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𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐉𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐆𝐨𝐭 𝐚 𝐋𝐨𝐭 𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤𝐲. What if your first prediction trade didn’t have to be a leap of faith? That’s exactly what caught my attention about VIZO’s latest campaign. As the first prediction market on Pharos Network, VIZO is giving new users a chance to explore... prediction trading with First Trade Loss Protection, earn VIZO Points that could matter in future airdrops, and compete for a share of 20,000 PROS. One trade can unlock all three reward programs. If you’ve been waiting for the right time to try prediction markets, this campaign makes getting started a lot more interesting. Campaign ends August 16. Watch the video to see how it works. VIZO Pharos | Mainnet Arc #PredictionMarketsshow more

web3prof

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12,932 views • 12 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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Based Prediction Markets In partnership with Polymarket, the Based team will be launching prediction market access to users of Based. This manifests as a highly performant and intuitive way for users to trade prediction markets across iOS, Android, and our Web terminal product. Utilising Polymarket's deep liquidity and robust settlement, we carve out a new market segment for our users to trade. This is built in deep integration with Hyperliquid's hypercore to allow users to easily move funds in and out of their Perpetual accounts into Prediction Market account. The BasedPals will also receive an unique utility in-line with our agentic trading roadmap in partnership with Polymarket. With the integration of Prediction Market access, we diversify and increase Based's revenue streams as we move ahead into our eventual TGE. In order to grow our Prediction Market business, the Based team will be setting aside 2mil Based Gold every epoch (starting #14) for Based users who trade on our Prediction Markets. Stay Based.

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Based

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The future of decentralized prediction markets is evolving and Panta is leading the way. What if your market insights could become real earning opportunities? In this short video and thread, I'll walk you through Panta's powerful ecosystem, from prediction markets and creator rewards to built-in wallets, market creation, and the exciting new upgrades including USDC integration, cross-chain bridging, Panta Intelligence, and enhanced creator earnings. Panta Solana Summit Nigeria 🇳🇬 Explore panta: 🎥 Watch the VIDEO to see PANTAMARKETS in action, then scroll down and 🧵 check the THREAD for a deeper breakdown of everything the platform has to offer.... The future of prediction starts here. THE THREAD 🧵

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John Mark💫

24,401 views • 20 days ago

Kairos And Why You Should Be A Part Of It Now. I’m sure that in the past few weeks, you’ve seen Kairos on your timeline whether from traders or creators like geek and tochi. What is Kairos? Kairos is currently the best prediction market trading terminal, aggregating Polymarket, Kalshi, and predict.fun. In simple terms, you can trade on all these prediction markets on kairos. Backed by a16z crypto, Geneva Trading, and more. Kairos is still in its beta phase, which means if you’re seeing this now, you’re genuinely early think HyperLiquid early. Why You Should Use Kairos Now • You get a major advantage by building volume early while it’s still in beta, ahead of any potential points system or token launch. • Its features outperforms every other prediction market product in speed, performance, advanced order types, news integration, and intelligence tools. No prediction market product comes close to Kairos in terms of technology. - Kill two birds with one stone: While trading Polymarket on Kairos, you’re simultaneously building trading volume for both platforms. This strategically positions you for potential $KAIROS and $POLY airdrops should any be announced. One volume. Two potential rewards. For Traders & Creators: • $30K Trading Competition Compete for a share of the prize pool using Kairos. Details: • There is currently a $5K Creator Pool and you get rewarded for creating content about Kairos. Also, if you’re a prediction market creator or micro-creator and you believe Kairos is the right place for you to grow and create, please feel free to reach out to me or Nexi and Zubby.hl. Use Kairos here: Join the Discord: Kairos is the Bloomberg Terminal for prediction markets and you’re truly early.

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𝗠𝗜𝗥𝗘𝗟 𝗩𝗘𝗚𝗔𝗥

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Do you have what it takes to forecast International trade? Today, we are launching AI4trade, a global challenge where teams compete for cash prizes by submitting their best trade forecasts. But it comes with a couple of twists: 1. This is a future out-of-sample challenge, so teams will need to forecast data that will not exist at the time of submission (impossible to train to the test 👹). 2. Forecasts must be better than simply using the latest trade data available at the time of submission (e.g. using July data as a prediction for October numbers ⏰). This should be a fun global competition. People from all parts of the world are welcome to participate and all methods are allowed. We hope the challenge stimulates more work at the intersection of AI and economics. Link in the first comment: 👇

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César A. Hidalgo

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I built a decentralized prediction market app called Aracana Markets, fully live and deployed on Arc network. Arcana Market is an onchain prediction market where anyone trades YES or NO on real-world events using USDC on arc network. Right now , there are active 33 markets covering: crypto, politics, sports, macro, AI , culture , arc , and science. To get started claim faucet at - Visit - connect your wallet - pick any market of your choice - predict either yes or no - trade with USDC - contract settles automatically when the event resolves i would really love it if you could test it out and share your feedback with me. Thank you. ⚠️ testnet only , please use a burner wallet

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T̷O̷N̷B̷R̷A̷™

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Chris Camillo explains his emergency trade investing strategy “As an investor, you should have 20 scenarios. Each of those scenarios maybe has a 5% likelihood of happening in your lifetime and you know exactly what you’re going to do if and when that scenario plays out” “The market is so inefficient when it comes to any low probability scenario” “When one of them happens, you want to be able to move in real time. The difference between moving in a matter of minutes and moving in a matter of hours might be the biggest trade of your entire life” “If you could move in minutes with high conviction, with leverage, when one of those low probability things actually starts to materialize, you will make the biggest trade of your life” “That’s the only trade you ever need to make to be a top 1% or even 1/10th of 1% investor” “You just need to mentally prepare because you will not pull the trigger on that trade unless you’ve been thinking about it for years” “If you’ve been thinking about it for years, you will pull that damn trigger so hard because you have been waiting for it to happen”

Chris Camillo explains his emergency trade investing strategy “As an investor, you should have 20 scenarios. Each of those scenarios maybe has a 5% likelihood of happening in your lifetime and you know exactly what you’re going to do if and when that scenario plays out” “The market is so inefficient when it comes to any low probability scenario” “When one of them happens, you want to be able to move in real time. The difference between moving in a matter of minutes and moving in a matter of hours might be the biggest trade of your entire life” “If you could move in minutes with high conviction, with leverage, when one of those low probability things actually starts to materialize, you will make the biggest trade of your life” “That’s the only trade you ever need to make to be a top 1% or even 1/10th of 1% investor” “You just need to mentally prepare because you will not pull the trigger on that trade unless you’ve been thinking about it for years” “If you’ve been thinking about it for years, you will pull that damn trigger so hard because you have been waiting for it to happen”

Jack

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Wow! Agents can now trade autonomously on Polymarket using the x402 standard. Semantic Layer is leading the way here, and I think it makes a lot of sense to have AI Agents executing trades directly on prediction markets, as they can analyze vast amounts of data and close inefficiencies. This first beta already features three specialized Agents, each researching a different Polymarket sector. AI agents are automating everything.

Wow! Agents can now trade autonomously on Polymarket using the x402 standard. Semantic Layer is leading the way here, and I think it makes a lot of sense to have AI Agents executing trades directly on prediction markets, as they can analyze vast amounts of data and close inefficiencies. This first beta already features three specialized Agents, each researching a different Polymarket sector. AI agents are automating everything.

Diego

38,904 views • 9 months ago

🚀 Ready to Turn Your Insights into Rewards? 🚀 Join the Predict & Earn campaign on NODO and stand a chance to win 10,000 GEMS! 💎 🎯 It’s Simple: 1. Sign in/Sign up on NODO 2. Buy/Deposit USDT 3. Choose a prediction poll 4. Buy $25 worth of shares in 1 poll 🌟 BONUS: If your prediction is right when the poll closes, you earn even more! ⏰ Dates: Aug 5 - Aug 31 Don’t miss out on this amazing opportunity to earn rewards for your insights. Get started at and make your predictions count! 💰

🚀 Ready to Turn Your Insights into Rewards? 🚀 Join the Predict & Earn campaign on NODO and stand a chance to win 10,000 GEMS! 💎 🎯 It’s Simple: 1. Sign in/Sign up on NODO 2. Buy/Deposit USDT 3. Choose a prediction poll 4. Buy $25 worth of shares in 1 poll 🌟 BONUS: If your prediction is right when the poll closes, you earn even more! ⏰ Dates: Aug 5 - Aug 31 Don’t miss out on this amazing opportunity to earn rewards for your insights. Get started at and make your predictions count! 💰

NODO

65,836 views • 2 years ago

BASECASE $CASE IS NOW LIVE! CA: 0x91Af643fc6db5eF56c3001a988bBbe40af6E2CcB Crypto, sports, weather, politics - or even a casual bet between friends. If you can think of it, you can find (or create) a market on BaseCase. The best part? There’s no house setting the odds and extracting value. Participants trade directly against each other, in open, permissionless markets - not against a centralized intermediary designed to always win. But BaseCase is so much more than another prediction market. $CASE underpins a permissionless prediction ecosystem built around a core constraint: liquidity - the factor that has limited prediction markets’ ability to scale, remain efficient, and reach real-world relevance. TLDR? BaseCase is building the base layer all prediction markets will come to rely on - from market leaders like Polymarket, Binance, and MetaMask through to new and emerging platforms. At its core is the $CASE token - unlocking up to 50% of protocol fees, enhanced creator rewards, priority access, and much more to come. BaseCase’s TGE has officially occurred, and $CASE is now live for trading on Pineapple $PAPPLE. Buy $CASE now: #base #tge #seed #papple #launch #crypto

BASECASE $CASE IS NOW LIVE! CA: 0x91Af643fc6db5eF56c3001a988bBbe40af6E2CcB Crypto, sports, weather, politics - or even a casual bet between friends. If you can think of it, you can find (or create) a market on BaseCase. The best part? There’s no house setting the odds and extracting value. Participants trade directly against each other, in open, permissionless markets - not against a centralized intermediary designed to always win. But BaseCase is so much more than another prediction market. $CASE underpins a permissionless prediction ecosystem built around a core constraint: liquidity - the factor that has limited prediction markets’ ability to scale, remain efficient, and reach real-world relevance. TLDR? BaseCase is building the base layer all prediction markets will come to rely on - from market leaders like Polymarket, Binance, and MetaMask through to new and emerging platforms. At its core is the $CASE token - unlocking up to 50% of protocol fees, enhanced creator rewards, priority access, and much more to come. BaseCase’s TGE has officially occurred, and $CASE is now live for trading on Pineapple $PAPPLE. Buy $CASE now: #base #tge #seed #papple #launch #crypto

Launch with Seed | $SEED

19,303 views • 7 months ago

For years, social platforms trained us to scroll. We consumed information. We reacted. We watched moves happen in real time. But what if the feed wasn’t just where you discovered opportunity… What if it was where you acted on it? This AI-generated video explores the evolution of Base App into a trading-first platform for the onchain economy where protocols, apps, tokenized stocks, prediction markets, memes, and creator coins aren’t just discussed… they’re traded. It highlights the shift from social-first to finance-first, and how merging discovery, execution, and copy-trading into one unified interface can drive capital across the entire Base ecosystem. This isn’t just about upgrading a feed. It’s about redefining how attention turns into capital. 🎬 Watch the full video below.↷

For years, social platforms trained us to scroll. We consumed information. We reacted. We watched moves happen in real time. But what if the feed wasn’t just where you discovered opportunity… What if it was where you acted on it? This AI-generated video explores the evolution of Base App into a trading-first platform for the onchain economy where protocols, apps, tokenized stocks, prediction markets, memes, and creator coins aren’t just discussed… they’re traded. It highlights the shift from social-first to finance-first, and how merging discovery, execution, and copy-trading into one unified interface can drive capital across the entire Base ecosystem. This isn’t just about upgrading a feed. It’s about redefining how attention turns into capital. 🎬 Watch the full video below.↷

ᴋɪɴɢꜱʟᴇʏ

16,878 views • 5 months ago

Prediction markets are no longer a fringe curiosity. They are becoming one of the most revealing instruments in modern finance. Platforms like Polymarket, once a niche corner of crypto, now regularly clear billions in monthly volume as traders speculate on everything from political outcomes to sports to cultural events. Few people saw this future as early, or as clearly, as Joey Krug. A decade before prediction markets went mainstream, Joey dropped out of college to co-found Augur, the first decentralized prediction market protocol. He later became one of the most influential investors in the category by backing Polymarket at Founders Fund. In this conversation, Joey shares why the moment for prediction markets has finally arrived, what has changed, and how these markets are reshaping information flows across society. You can listen to it here 👇 • YouTube: • Spotify: • Apple: And a big thanks to the incredible sponsors that support our work: ✨ Guru – The AI source of truth for work: ✨ Auth0– Secure access for everyone. But not just anyone:

Prediction markets are no longer a fringe curiosity. They are becoming one of the most revealing instruments in modern finance. Platforms like Polymarket, once a niche corner of crypto, now regularly clear billions in monthly volume as traders speculate on everything from political outcomes to sports to cultural events. Few people saw this future as early, or as clearly, as Joey Krug. A decade before prediction markets went mainstream, Joey dropped out of college to co-found Augur, the first decentralized prediction market protocol. He later became one of the most influential investors in the category by backing Polymarket at Founders Fund. In this conversation, Joey shares why the moment for prediction markets has finally arrived, what has changed, and how these markets are reshaping information flows across society. You can listen to it here 👇 • YouTube: • Spotify: • Apple: And a big thanks to the incredible sponsors that support our work: ✨ Guru – The AI source of truth for work: ✨ Auth0– Secure access for everyone. But not just anyone:

Mario Gabriele 🦊

37,109 views • 8 months ago

When I was 8 years old, growing up in Taipei, I called my aunt in San Francisco and asked: What is the best science and technology school in the world? She said MIT. I went on the internet, found it, and decided that was where I was going. All because of a Steven Spielberg movie about a little robot boy who wanted to find his mom. I grew up as an only child. What stayed with me from that movie was not just the technology. It was the possibility that one day, an artificial companion could understand how I felt. That was the first time I remember being moved by a technology that could change how humans experience reality. Years later, I did get to MIT. I studied AI before it became obvious. I became a machine learning engineer, built my first company, joined a $3.5B VC fund, left to build again, failed, started again, moved to New York alone, and built through one of the hardest crypto markets as a solo founder after the collapse of FTX. I kept going because I have always been drawn to technologies that change how humans understand the world. AI was the first version of that. Crypto and prediction markets are the next. I believe the future I am building toward is inevitable. The only question is whether I get to be one of the people who helps realize it. That future is a world where markets become information-first. The old model of trading was asset-first. It rewarded people with capital, financial education, institutional access, and better tools. But the next generation of markets will be shaped by information flow, narrative, attention, politics, culture, sentiment, and collective belief. Prediction markets make this shift obvious. They are one of the first asset classes where the value is informational, not purely financial in the traditional sense. Your edge does not have to come from technical analysis or a traditional finance background. Your edge can come from knowing something before it becomes consensus. From seeing reality shift before the market prices it in. Someone with firsthand knowledge of an unfolding event can have more alpha than an institution with a much bigger balance sheet. They turn belief into price. But price alone is not enough. Polymarket shows what the market thinks will happen. ARES is built to understand why the market is changing. We are building an information-first trading platform for prediction markets and other narrative-driven assets. One that does not just show traders what is moving, but helps them understand why odds are shifting, why narratives are forming, and why the future is moving in a certain direction. But the bigger vision is not just a better trading terminal. We want to turn every trade into an information object. Every position can become a piece of content. Every market view can become a signal. Every trader can build a reputation around conviction and accuracy. Most feeds rank information by engagement. Who got the most likes. Who already has the biggest audience. Markets allow us to rank information differently. How much are you willing to stake on what you believe? How often have you been right? That creates a fundamentally different kind of media feed. One powered by conviction, track record, and market incentives. One that becomes harder to fake. One that can help people understand not just what the market thinks will happen, but why reality is changing. I also believe prediction markets are one of the few markets where humans can still have a real edge over AI. AI knows what is already on the internet. But humans experience reality before it becomes data. We see things before they become headlines. We hear things before they become reports. We feel shifts before they become consensus. If those signals can be priced, organized, and made legible, then more people can gain access to financial opportunity, information agency, and power. That is what Ares is building toward. I spent years watching founders from the VC side of the table, always thinking: I wish that was me. Now it is. I talked about this journey and the thesis behind Ares in my conversation with Dmitry on Predict Time If you are building, trading, investing, or thinking deeply about prediction markets and information markets, I would love for you to watch it. And if you want to collaborate on what we are building, contribute to the vision, or join the team, we are always open to exceptional people across functions. DMs are open.

When I was 8 years old, growing up in Taipei, I called my aunt in San Francisco and asked: What is the best science and technology school in the world? She said MIT. I went on the internet, found it, and decided that was where I was going. All because of a Steven Spielberg movie about a little robot boy who wanted to find his mom. I grew up as an only child. What stayed with me from that movie was not just the technology. It was the possibility that one day, an artificial companion could understand how I felt. That was the first time I remember being moved by a technology that could change how humans experience reality. Years later, I did get to MIT. I studied AI before it became obvious. I became a machine learning engineer, built my first company, joined a $3.5B VC fund, left to build again, failed, started again, moved to New York alone, and built through one of the hardest crypto markets as a solo founder after the collapse of FTX. I kept going because I have always been drawn to technologies that change how humans understand the world. AI was the first version of that. Crypto and prediction markets are the next. I believe the future I am building toward is inevitable. The only question is whether I get to be one of the people who helps realize it. That future is a world where markets become information-first. The old model of trading was asset-first. It rewarded people with capital, financial education, institutional access, and better tools. But the next generation of markets will be shaped by information flow, narrative, attention, politics, culture, sentiment, and collective belief. Prediction markets make this shift obvious. They are one of the first asset classes where the value is informational, not purely financial in the traditional sense. Your edge does not have to come from technical analysis or a traditional finance background. Your edge can come from knowing something before it becomes consensus. From seeing reality shift before the market prices it in. Someone with firsthand knowledge of an unfolding event can have more alpha than an institution with a much bigger balance sheet. They turn belief into price. But price alone is not enough. Polymarket shows what the market thinks will happen. ARES is built to understand why the market is changing. We are building an information-first trading platform for prediction markets and other narrative-driven assets. One that does not just show traders what is moving, but helps them understand why odds are shifting, why narratives are forming, and why the future is moving in a certain direction. But the bigger vision is not just a better trading terminal. We want to turn every trade into an information object. Every position can become a piece of content. Every market view can become a signal. Every trader can build a reputation around conviction and accuracy. Most feeds rank information by engagement. Who got the most likes. Who already has the biggest audience. Markets allow us to rank information differently. How much are you willing to stake on what you believe? How often have you been right? That creates a fundamentally different kind of media feed. One powered by conviction, track record, and market incentives. One that becomes harder to fake. One that can help people understand not just what the market thinks will happen, but why reality is changing. I also believe prediction markets are one of the few markets where humans can still have a real edge over AI. AI knows what is already on the internet. But humans experience reality before it becomes data. We see things before they become headlines. We hear things before they become reports. We feel shifts before they become consensus. If those signals can be priced, organized, and made legible, then more people can gain access to financial opportunity, information agency, and power. That is what Ares is building toward. I spent years watching founders from the VC side of the table, always thinking: I wish that was me. Now it is. I talked about this journey and the thesis behind Ares in my conversation with Dmitry on Predict Time If you are building, trading, investing, or thinking deeply about prediction markets and information markets, I would love for you to watch it. And if you want to collaborate on what we are building, contribute to the vision, or join the team, we are always open to exceptional people across functions. DMs are open.

Morgan Lai

302,663 views • 3 months ago

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐦𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐚𝐬𝐭, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝. With Fast Markets on VIZO, it comes down to one simple question: 𝐖𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐠𝐨 𝐮𝐩 𝐨𝐫 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧? Choose from BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, DOGE, or HYPE, then pick the timeframe that fits your strategy; 5 minutes, 15 minutes, 1 hour, or 4 hours. Whether you enjoy catching quick market moves or waiting for a bigger setup, Fast Markets give you the flexibility to trade on your terms. I gave it a try, and I like how straightforward the experience feels. No unnecessary complexity, just a clear market view and the confidence to make your call. Watch the video to see how it works, then head over to and explore Fast Markets for yourself. Up or down? The market decides. Your job is to make the call.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐦𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐚𝐬𝐭, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝. With Fast Markets on VIZO, it comes down to one simple question: 𝐖𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐠𝐨 𝐮𝐩 𝐨𝐫 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧? Choose from BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, DOGE, or HYPE, then pick the timeframe that fits your strategy; 5 minutes, 15 minutes, 1 hour, or 4 hours. Whether you enjoy catching quick market moves or waiting for a bigger setup, Fast Markets give you the flexibility to trade on your terms. I gave it a try, and I like how straightforward the experience feels. No unnecessary complexity, just a clear market view and the confidence to make your call. Watch the video to see how it works, then head over to and explore Fast Markets for yourself. Up or down? The market decides. Your job is to make the call.

MavisKrypt ⚖️ 🦔

11,547 views • 16 days ago

As prediction market betting becomes more prevalent in nearly every aspect of American culture, journalist and author David Hill says not everything needs to turn into a "betting proposition." "I don't think that it makes a lot of sense for us to want to turn every single proposition in American culture and life into a betting proposition," he told PBS News' Geoff Bennett. "But I do think there's clearly a market for it." Hill added that America needs to "reckon" with the rapid rise of prediction markets and put regulations around the industry to protect people and prevent "large-scale corruption." "There's real life-and-death stuff that's getting bet on that I think behooves the government to get involved and figure out how we can regulate what types of things people are allowed to, you know, predict," he said. "I think the notion that we're predicting is a little bit ridiculous. ... What people are essentially doing is gambling." Hill spoke to Geoff Bennett for the latest episode of PBS News' podcast, "Settle In," about America's love of betting and how prediction markets are changing the industry. For the full episode:

As prediction market betting becomes more prevalent in nearly every aspect of American culture, journalist and author David Hill says not everything needs to turn into a "betting proposition." "I don't think that it makes a lot of sense for us to want to turn every single proposition in American culture and life into a betting proposition," he told PBS News' Geoff Bennett. "But I do think there's clearly a market for it." Hill added that America needs to "reckon" with the rapid rise of prediction markets and put regulations around the industry to protect people and prevent "large-scale corruption." "There's real life-and-death stuff that's getting bet on that I think behooves the government to get involved and figure out how we can regulate what types of things people are allowed to, you know, predict," he said. "I think the notion that we're predicting is a little bit ridiculous. ... What people are essentially doing is gambling." Hill spoke to Geoff Bennett for the latest episode of PBS News' podcast, "Settle In," about America's love of betting and how prediction markets are changing the industry. For the full episode:

PBS News

11,154 views • 5 months ago

.Martin Shkreli explains why he's both bearish on prediction markets and runs a bot that makes a market in the Bitcoin 15-minute Polymarket markets: "How much are you just financializing for financializing's sake, and is that sustainable when you actually need people with tons of money to fight the arbitrage gradient?" "For example, I've been running this bot on Polymarket that makes a market in the Bitcoin 15-minute markets, which are somewhat inefficient." "Nobody needs to trade this. There's no actual benefit to trading this, other than that you can take two-to-N bets - you get around 96 bets a day - and with the money velocity of getting a lot of those right, you can compound insanely well." "Of course, it's random. But people's hope springs eternal that they could somehow get the rhythm of the market every 15 minutes. I think it's a waste of ingenuity and engineering."

.Martin Shkreli explains why he's both bearish on prediction markets and runs a bot that makes a market in the Bitcoin 15-minute Polymarket markets: "How much are you just financializing for financializing's sake, and is that sustainable when you actually need people with tons of money to fight the arbitrage gradient?" "For example, I've been running this bot on Polymarket that makes a market in the Bitcoin 15-minute markets, which are somewhat inefficient." "Nobody needs to trade this. There's no actual benefit to trading this, other than that you can take two-to-N bets - you get around 96 bets a day - and with the money velocity of getting a lot of those right, you can compound insanely well." "Of course, it's random. But people's hope springs eternal that they could somehow get the rhythm of the market every 15 minutes. I think it's a waste of ingenuity and engineering."

TBPN

151,807 views • 6 months ago

DROPS E39: Worm - The permissionless truth machine Nass Diba studied quantum physics, worked at Facebook, then left to build in crypto. He's now building Worm - a permissionless prediction market on Solana with leverage. His thesis: prediction markets are the only mechanism that consistently surfaces truth, and they're about to matter more than ever. He grew up in Iran under a dictatorship. He watched state TV claim there was no inflation while the money in people's pockets shrank. That's not a metaphor for him - it's the problem he's building to solve. We talk about: - Why CNN and Fox both showed different election results in 2024 - Growing up in Iran and experiencing information asymmetry under dictatorship firsthand - Building a Poly Market Telegram mini app in September 2024 and getting 56,000 users overnight - Why 90% of those users weren't American - and what that revealed about the technology - How leverage works on prediction markets, why it took 9 months to build, and what liquidation actually means when there's no price - just probability - Why Polymarket and Kalshi are scratching the surface of what's possible - Prediction markets as the engagement layer for Web3 - and what Worm is launching on HyperLiquid HIP-4 And much more… Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 1:17 Welcome to DROPS 1:57 Prediction Markets in 2026 3:08 Can the crowd be wrong? 4:26 Money Creates Better Truth Discovery 5:22 Who is Nass? 5:55 Growing up in Iran 6:52 Entered Crypto in 2019 8:05 Discovering Prediction Markets 10:08 Signal Behind the 2024 Elections 11:59 How Prediction Markets Disrupt Traditional Media 13:16 Traditional Media Prioritizes Incentives Over Truth 17:33 Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Model Wins? 18:25 Why is Kalshi or Polymarket enough? 19:43 Lessons Learned Building on Polymarket 21:07 Building Worm on Solana 21:56 What Is Worm and its special elements? 23:36 How Leverage Works on Prediction Markets 25:29 Hedging 27:33 Prediction Markets vs Options & Perps 29:15 How Liquidations Work 31:13 Why Leverage is more than a Gimmick 33:04 Building Leverage Was Harder Than Expected 34:12 Solving Liquidity Problem 36:05 How Worm Acquires Users 36:59 Inflection Point for Prediction Markets 39:06 Why Worm chose Solana 40:24 Becoming the Hyperliquid of Prediction Markets 42:26 Solana vs Hyperliquid: Which Wins? 45:00 Conclusion

DROPS E39: Worm - The permissionless truth machine Nass Diba studied quantum physics, worked at Facebook, then left to build in crypto. He's now building Worm - a permissionless prediction market on Solana with leverage. His thesis: prediction markets are the only mechanism that consistently surfaces truth, and they're about to matter more than ever. He grew up in Iran under a dictatorship. He watched state TV claim there was no inflation while the money in people's pockets shrank. That's not a metaphor for him - it's the problem he's building to solve. We talk about: - Why CNN and Fox both showed different election results in 2024 - Growing up in Iran and experiencing information asymmetry under dictatorship firsthand - Building a Poly Market Telegram mini app in September 2024 and getting 56,000 users overnight - Why 90% of those users weren't American - and what that revealed about the technology - How leverage works on prediction markets, why it took 9 months to build, and what liquidation actually means when there's no price - just probability - Why Polymarket and Kalshi are scratching the surface of what's possible - Prediction markets as the engagement layer for Web3 - and what Worm is launching on HyperLiquid HIP-4 And much more… Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 1:17 Welcome to DROPS 1:57 Prediction Markets in 2026 3:08 Can the crowd be wrong? 4:26 Money Creates Better Truth Discovery 5:22 Who is Nass? 5:55 Growing up in Iran 6:52 Entered Crypto in 2019 8:05 Discovering Prediction Markets 10:08 Signal Behind the 2024 Elections 11:59 How Prediction Markets Disrupt Traditional Media 13:16 Traditional Media Prioritizes Incentives Over Truth 17:33 Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Model Wins? 18:25 Why is Kalshi or Polymarket enough? 19:43 Lessons Learned Building on Polymarket 21:07 Building Worm on Solana 21:56 What Is Worm and its special elements? 23:36 How Leverage Works on Prediction Markets 25:29 Hedging 27:33 Prediction Markets vs Options & Perps 29:15 How Liquidations Work 31:13 Why Leverage is more than a Gimmick 33:04 Building Leverage Was Harder Than Expected 34:12 Solving Liquidity Problem 36:05 How Worm Acquires Users 36:59 Inflection Point for Prediction Markets 39:06 Why Worm chose Solana 40:24 Becoming the Hyperliquid of Prediction Markets 42:26 Solana vs Hyperliquid: Which Wins? 45:00 Conclusion

MR SHIFT 🦁

31,065 views • 1 month ago