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๐“๐ก๐ž ๐š๐ซ๐œ๐ก๐ข๐ญ๐ž๐œ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐ž๐ง๐œ๐ž. Today's exchange moved into engineering. Stakeholders dissected endowment architecture; capital formation strategies, investment thesis development, governance frameworks designed to outlast leadership cycles, and drawdown policies that balance sustainability with mission delivery.๐Ÿฅณ The conversations were operational. Practitioners interrogating what it actually takes to build financial vehicles...

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๐•๐ˆ๐‚๐“๐Ž๐‘ ๐ƒ๐€๐•๐ˆ๐’ ๐‡๐€๐๐’๐Ž๐ ๐‰๐”๐’๐“ ๐๐”๐‘๐ˆ๐„๐ƒ ๐“๐‡๐„ โ€œ๐…๐Ž๐‘๐„๐•๐„๐‘ ๐–๐€๐‘โ€ ๐‹๐ˆ๐„ ๐ˆ๐ ๐“๐‡๐ˆ๐‘๐“๐„๐„๐ ๐Œ๐ˆ๐๐”๐“๐„๐’. ๐ˆ๐‘๐€๐ ๐“๐„๐‘๐‘๐ˆ๐…๐ˆ๐„๐ƒ ๐’๐„๐•๐„๐ ๐๐‘๐„๐’๐ˆ๐ƒ๐„๐๐“๐’. ๐“๐‘๐”๐Œ๐ ๐ƒ๐„๐’๐“๐‘๐Ž๐˜๐„๐ƒ ๐ˆ๐“๐’ ๐€๐๐ˆ๐‹๐ˆ๐“๐˜ ๐“๐Ž ๐Œ๐€๐Š๐„ ๐–๐€๐‘ ๐ˆ๐ ๐…๐ˆ๐•๐„ ๐–๐„๐„๐Š๐’. ๐“๐‡๐ˆ๐’ ๐ˆ๐’ ๐“๐‡๐„ ๐‡๐ˆ๐’๐“๐Ž๐‘๐ˆ๐€๐โ€™๐’ ๐’๐‚๐Ž๐‘๐„๐‚๐€๐‘๐ƒ. Victor Davis Hanson โ€” the most decorated classical military historian in America, author of ๐˜›๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜š๐˜ฆ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ž๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ญ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ž๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ด and ๐˜›๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜Š๐˜ข๐˜ด๐˜ฆ ๐˜๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ ๐˜›๐˜ณ๐˜ถ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฑ, Hoover Institution senior fellow, lifelong scholar of how wars actually end โ€” spent thirteen minutes on the Daily Signal this week doing what no cable news anchor has bothered to do since February. He compared this war to every other war in American history and then showed his work. His conclusion, in his own words: โ€œ๐˜ž๐˜ฆโ€™๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ข ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ณ๐˜บ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง 93 ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฑ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฐ๐˜ด๐˜ต ๐˜ง๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ด๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ, ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ฃ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฑ๐˜ถ๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜จ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ด ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ถ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฑ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ฃ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ, ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ณ๐˜ถ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฏ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜”๐˜ช๐˜ฅ๐˜ฅ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ ๐˜Œ๐˜ข๐˜ด๐˜ต ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ฉ ๐˜ข ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ-๐˜ฐ๐˜ง-๐˜ง๐˜ช๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜น๐˜ช๐˜ฆ๐˜ด ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜š๐˜บ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ข, ๐˜๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ฒ, ๐˜ ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ, ๐˜Ž๐˜ข๐˜ป๐˜ข, ๐˜“๐˜ฆ๐˜ฃ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ โ€” ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ฃ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ. ๐˜›๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ง๐˜ช๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ช๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ด. ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜บ๐˜ฆ๐˜ต, ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜ง๐˜ช๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ธ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฌ๐˜ด, ๐˜ธ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜บ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ด ๐˜ข๐˜ฃ๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜บ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ณ.โ€ Read that sentence and then read it again. ๐’๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ง ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ข๐๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ. ๐“๐ž๐ซ๐ซ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐ž๐. ๐…๐ข๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ค๐ฌ. ๐ƒ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ฒ๐ž๐. That is not a Trump rally soundbite. That is Victor Davis Hanson, the man who wrote the textbooks on Thermopylae, Cannae, and the Pacific War, rendering verdict in real time on the fastest decisive American military victory since the First Gulf War, and arguably since 1945. Here is what Hanson walked through, and every single beat of it is lethal to the legacy narrative. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐‚๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐œ๐ฌ ๐๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ ๐ƒ๐ข๐ ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐‡๐จ๐ฆ๐ž๐ฐ๐จ๐ซ๐ค Hanson opens by naming names. The Democratic grandees in the House and Senate. The New York Times. The Washington Post. NPR. PBS. The Wall Street Journal news section. And โ€” this is the key part โ€” the disaffected ex-MAGA right that spent six weeks screaming ๐˜ž๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ญ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ž๐˜ข๐˜ณ ๐˜๐˜๐˜ from podcasts and Substacks. He points out that these two camps share ๐ญ๐ฐ๐จ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐จ๐ง. First, ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ช๐˜ต ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜จ๐˜ฐ ๐˜ธ๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜ญ, because a Trump military success would destroy their entire post-2024 political project. Second, and more devastating: ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ฒ ๐ง๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ ๐๐ข๐ ๐š ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฅ๐ž ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š๐ฅ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐š๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐จ๐ง. Not one of them, Hanson notes, bothered to measure the Iran campaign against ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฃ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ฎ๐˜ฑ๐˜ข๐˜ช๐˜จ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜š๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฃ๐˜ช๐˜ข ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฃ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ฎ๐˜ฑ๐˜ข๐˜ช๐˜จ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜“๐˜ช๐˜ฃ๐˜บ๐˜ข ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ง๐˜ช๐˜ณ๐˜ด๐˜ต ๐˜Ž๐˜ถ๐˜ญ๐˜ง ๐˜ž๐˜ข๐˜ณ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜Ž๐˜ถ๐˜ญ๐˜ง ๐˜ž๐˜ข๐˜ณ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ˆ๐˜ง๐˜จ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ. Not one of them asked how many missiles the U.S. had destroyed, whether American aircraft had been shot down (45 were lost in the First Gulf War alone), whether the enemy command structure had been taken out. Instead, they just asserted the conclusion they needed: ๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ณ. That is not analysis. That is a feelings-forward prayer dressed up as journalism, and Hanson calls it for exactly what it is. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐€๐œ๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐’๐œ๐จ๐ซ๐ž๐›๐จ๐š๐ซ๐: ๐…๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ ๐‘๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐‚๐ฅ๐ข๐ช๐ฎ๐ž๐ฌ, ๐ƒ๐ž๐œ๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ž๐ Hansonโ€™s single most important factual paragraph of the 13 minutes: โ€œ๐˜๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ง๐˜ช๐˜ณ๐˜ด๐˜ต ๐˜ง๐˜ช๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ธ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฌ๐˜ด, ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜œ๐˜ฏ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜š๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ด ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ฉ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜๐˜ด๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜ช ๐˜ˆ๐˜ช๐˜ณ ๐˜๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ค๐˜ฆ ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ฑ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฐ๐˜ด๐˜ต ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ๐˜ฑ ๐˜ฆ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ณ๐˜ถ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ค๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฒ๐˜ถ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ.โ€ He lists them individually. Memorize this list, because it is the actual accounting of what ๐Ÿ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ค๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐€๐ฆ๐ž๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š๐ง ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ˆ๐ฌ๐ซ๐š๐ž๐ฅ๐ข ๐š๐ข๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฐ๐ž๐ซ did to a regime that spent 46 years promising ๐˜‹๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ฉ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ข: ๐Ž๐ง๐ž. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps โ€” IRGC command network shattered. Qassem-era terror infrastructure leadership dead or in hiding. ๐“๐ฐ๐จ. The regular Iranian Army โ€” senior general officer corps hollowed out by precision strike. ๐“๐ก๐ซ๐ž๐ž. The theocratic apparat โ€” including the Supreme Leader himself. The Assembly of Experts is reportedly unable to convene. ๐…๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ. The elected politicians โ€” the facade government, the President, the Foreign Minister, the Majlis leadership. ๐€๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ ๐ฉ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐š๐ซ๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ž ๐ฐ๐ž๐ซ๐ž ๐ก๐ข๐ญ. ๐’๐ข๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐š๐ง๐ž๐จ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฅ๐ฒ. ๐ˆ๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ซ๐ญ๐ฒ-๐Ÿ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž ๐๐š๐ฒ๐ฌ. That is not a ๐˜ฒ๐˜ถ๐˜ข๐˜จ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ. That is not a ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ฆ. That is the most surgical decapitation of a hostile nation-state since the Japanese surrender ceremony on the USS Missouri. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐“๐ก๐ซ๐ž๐ž-๐๐ก๐š๐ฌ๐ž ๐“๐ซ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฉ ๐’๐ญ๐ซ๐š๐ญ๐ž๐ ๐ฒ ๐‡๐š๐ง๐ฌ๐จ๐ง ๐€๐œ๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ƒ๐ข๐š๐ ๐ซ๐š๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ž๐ Hanson then does something cable news cannot do in 45-second segments: he reconstructs the entire strategic arc. Three phases. Execute them in order. Win. ๐๐ก๐š๐ฌ๐ž ๐Ž๐ง๐ž: ๐Œ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐œ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. Find the tunnels. Find the hidden airfields. Find the silos. Find the people in bunkers. Kill the command structure. Leave the regime with ๐˜ข ๐˜ง๐˜ฆ๐˜ธ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด, ๐˜ข ๐˜ง๐˜ฆ๐˜ธ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ค ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ด๐˜ด๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด and nothing with which to rebuild. ๐๐ก๐š๐ฌ๐ž ๐“๐ฐ๐จ: ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ๐ž๐ซ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ง๐ž๐ ๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐š๐ญ๐ž. Hanson: โ€œ๐˜›๐˜ณ๐˜ถ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฑ ๐˜ด๐˜ข๐˜ช๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ, ๐˜ธ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฆ๐˜จ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ด ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ ๐˜ช๐˜ง ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฆ๐˜ต ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ๐˜ด.โ€ Self-interested? Yes โ€” Trump wanted oil prices down before midterms. But it was also, Hanson argues, to ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜จ๐˜ช๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ข ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ฆ ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ด๐˜ฉ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ธ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ญ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜›๐˜ณ๐˜ถ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฑ ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ด ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜ข ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ฅ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ. Iran refused, betting that Western street protests and MAGA apostates would pressure Trump to fold. ๐‡๐ž ๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ฅ๐. ๐‡๐ž ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐ง๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ฅ๐๐ž๐. ๐๐ก๐š๐ฌ๐ž ๐“๐ก๐ซ๐ž๐ž: ๐„๐œ๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐œ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. When Iran announced it would close the Strait of Hormuz to everyone who was not ๐˜ฑ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ-๐˜๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ฏ, Hanson says Trump just took the pen out of their hand. โ€œ๐˜›๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ตโ€™๐˜ด ๐˜ข ๐˜จ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ช๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข. ๐˜š๐˜ฉ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜š๐˜ต๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ช๐˜ต ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ต ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜จ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฅ ๐˜จ๐˜ถ๐˜บ๐˜ด ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ฐ๐˜ฑ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ข๐˜ฅ ๐˜จ๐˜ถ๐˜บ๐˜ด. ๐˜‰๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ข๐˜ฅ ๐˜จ๐˜ถ๐˜บ๐˜ด ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜จ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฅ ๐˜จ๐˜ถ๐˜บ๐˜ด, ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜จ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฅ ๐˜จ๐˜ถ๐˜บ๐˜ด ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ข๐˜ฅ ๐˜จ๐˜ถ๐˜บ๐˜ด.โ€ Translation: ๐ˆ๐ซ๐š๐ง ๐๐ž๐œ๐ฅ๐š๐ซ๐ž๐ ๐š ๐›๐ฅ๐จ๐œ๐ค๐š๐๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฐ๐จ๐ซ๐ฅ๐. ๐€๐ฆ๐ž๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š ๐๐ž๐œ๐ฅ๐š๐ซ๐ž๐ ๐š ๐›๐ฅ๐จ๐œ๐ค๐š๐๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ˆ๐ซ๐š๐ง. ๐€๐ฆ๐ž๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐š ๐œ๐š๐ซ๐ซ๐ข๐ž๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ค๐ž ๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ฉ. ๐ˆ๐ซ๐š๐ง ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐๐“ ๐›๐จ๐š๐ญ๐ฌ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ฌ. That is not a close fight. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐‘๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ญ ๐๐จ ๐Ž๐ง๐ž ๐Ž๐ง ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐‹๐ž๐Ÿ๐ญ ๐–๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐€๐œ๐ค๐ง๐จ๐ฐ๐ฅ๐ž๐๐ ๐ž Here is the paragraph that should be read aloud on every network tonight and will be read aloud on none of them. Hanson, coolly: โ€œ๐˜ž๐˜ฆโ€™๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ ๐˜‰๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ค๐˜ฌ ๐˜–๐˜ฃ๐˜ข๐˜ฎ๐˜ข ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜“๐˜ช๐˜ฃ๐˜บ๐˜ข ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ฌ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ด๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ด ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ต๐˜ด. ๐˜ž๐˜ฆโ€™๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ ๐˜‰๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ญ ๐˜Š๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜š๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฃ๐˜ช๐˜ข ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜บ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜บ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ฅ๐˜จ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜‹๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ถ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฌ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ช๐˜ณ ๐˜จ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ฅ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ข ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ข ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ง ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฑ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ. ๐˜ž๐˜ฆโ€™๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ณ๐˜บ ๐˜›๐˜ณ๐˜ถ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜บ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ญ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฉ๐˜บ๐˜ฅ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ค๐˜ต๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ค ๐˜ฑ๐˜ญ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ด ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜•๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ ๐˜’๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข. ๐˜ž๐˜ฆ ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ต ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง๐˜ง ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ด๐˜บ.โ€ Get the implications of that. Every American president from Truman to Obama โ€” Democrat and Republican alike โ€” hit ๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ-๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ž ๐œ๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐ง ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐ซ๐š๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐œ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž in every major air campaign of the last 75 years. Truman flattened North Korean hydroelectric plants and killed civilians by the thousands. Clinton blacked out a million and a half Serbs and bombed Belgrade bridges on the Danube for weeks. Obama leveled Libyan television and ports. ๐ƒ๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ๐ ๐“๐ซ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฉ, ๐Ÿ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ค๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐จ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ž๐ช๐ฎ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐š๐ฅ ๐Œ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ž ๐„๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐˜๐จ๐ฆ ๐Š๐ข๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ, ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ก๐ข๐ญ ๐š ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฅ๐ž ๐ˆ๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ข๐š๐ง ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฐ๐ž๐ซ ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐š๐ง๐ญ, ๐š ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฅ๐ž ๐ฐ๐š๐ญ๐ž๐ซ ๐ญ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐Ÿ๐š๐œ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ, ๐š ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฅ๐ž ๐›๐ซ๐ข๐๐ ๐ž, ๐จ๐ซ ๐š ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฅ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐Ÿ๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ซ๐ฒ. He has kept the war confined to the regimeโ€™s war-making capability and left the civilian grid intact. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ฆ๐š๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฅ๐ž๐ ๐š๐œ๐ฒ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐œ๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ž๐ ๐ซ๐ž๐œ๐ค๐ฅ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ง๐ง๐ข๐ง๐  ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐œ๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐š๐ข๐ซ ๐œ๐š๐ฆ๐ฉ๐š๐ข๐ ๐ง ๐ข๐ง ๐ฆ๐จ๐๐ž๐ซ๐ง ๐€๐ฆ๐ž๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š๐ง ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฒ. Every talking head who called this a ๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ณ owes Hanson an apology for not knowing the historical baseline he is using. $๐Ÿ’๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ ๐Œ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐€ ๐ƒ๐š๐ฒ ๐€๐ง๐ ๐‚๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐  Hanson cites the economists now ๐˜ง๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฑ๐˜ฑ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ข ๐˜ฅ๐˜ช๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ at major research universities in Europe and the United States who have started to measure what the American counter-blockade is actually doing to Tehran. The number: $๐Ÿ’๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐š ๐๐š๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐œ๐ฅ๐ข๐ฆ๐›๐ข๐ง๐ . Lost oil sales. Lost petrochemical exports. Lost critical imports of mechanical goods, electrical components, and food. A regime that was already bankrupt before the war, that had hyperinflation eating its own middle class before the first bomb dropped, is now losing half a billion dollars every 24 hours. Hanson is blunt: โ€œ๐˜›๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ธ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ๐˜จ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ฉ, ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ฏ'๐˜ต ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฐ ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜บ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ข๐˜ฃ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ช๐˜ต ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ถ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ ๐˜›๐˜ณ๐˜ถ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฑ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ช๐˜ฅ ๐˜ช๐˜ต ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ฒ๐˜ถ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ญ๐˜บ. ๐˜”๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜บ ๐˜ง๐˜ช๐˜ณ๐˜ด๐˜ต, ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฆ๐˜จ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ, ๐˜ฑ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฆ๐˜ค๐˜ฌ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜ณ๐˜ฅ.โ€ ๐“๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐š ๐๐จ๐œ๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐ž. ๐–๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ž ๐ข๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ฐ๐ง. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ˆ๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ข๐š๐ง ๐๐ž๐จ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž: ๐€ ๐๐ž๐ซ๐ฅ๐ข๐ง ๐–๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐Œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐ˆ๐ง ๐’๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ ๐Œ๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง Hansonโ€™s most historically evocative passage is about the Iranian street. He notes that the regimeโ€™s ruling cliques are right now motivated by ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜บ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ด: they do not know who is in charge, they have watched 30-40-50 of their colleagues get killed, and they are fighting each other for the remains of power. But the fear underneath all of that is the one that matters: ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ฒ ๐š๐ซ๐ž ๐ญ๐ž๐ซ๐ซ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐ž๐ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ข๐ซ ๐จ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ฉ๐ž๐จ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž. โ€œ๐˜›๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฑ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ด๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฌ ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ. ๐˜‰๐˜ฆ๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ณ ๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ, ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฉ๐˜บ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ง๐˜ญ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ด ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜จ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ. ๐˜›๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ญ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฏ'๐˜ต ๐˜ข๐˜ง๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ฅ ๐˜จ๐˜ข๐˜ด, ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ญ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฏ'๐˜ต ๐˜ข๐˜ง๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฅ, ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ฏ'๐˜ต ๐˜จ๐˜ฐ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ณ๐˜บ. ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ช๐˜ตโ€™๐˜ด ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด ๐˜ธ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ.โ€ Hansonโ€™s historical parallel is devastating and correct. The Berlin Wall did not come down the day Reagan said ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜ด ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ญ. It came down ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ค๐ฌ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ก๐ฌ ๐ฅ๐š๐ญ๐ž๐ซ ๐ข๐ง ๐„๐š๐ฌ๐ญ๐ž๐ซ๐ง ๐„๐ฎ๐ซ๐จ๐ฉ๐ž, ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐จ ๐ฒ๐ž๐š๐ซ๐ฌ ๐ฅ๐š๐ญ๐ž๐ซ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐’๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐ž๐ญ ๐”๐ง๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฅ๐Ÿ. The collapse of the IRGCโ€™s street-level power over 90 million Iranians may take exactly that long. But it is coming, and the mullahs know it, and that is why they are freelancing contradictory statements on Twitter every 12 hours while their own Supreme Leader is dead and nobody has been elevated. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐‚๐š๐ฏ๐ž๐š๐ญ ๐„๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐ž๐ ๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐š๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐ˆ๐ง ๐–๐š๐ฌ๐ก๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐จ๐ง ๐๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐“๐จ ๐‘๐ž๐š๐ The closing minute of Hansonโ€™s commentary is the hinge of everything. He warns that the coming negotiation is a trap unless it is structured correctly. His words: โ€œ๐˜๐˜ง ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ญ ๐˜ข๐˜ฃ๐˜ช๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฃ๐˜บ ๐˜ข ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜ธ๐˜ฆโ€™๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜จ๐˜ช๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ, ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ถ๐˜ค๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ 20 ๐˜บ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ด, ๐˜ธ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ช๐˜ต ๐˜ช๐˜ด, ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ญ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ฌ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ช๐˜ณ ๐˜ธ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ฅ. ๐˜ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏโ€™๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ฌ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บโ€™๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฑ๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ช๐˜ณ ๐˜ธ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ฅ.โ€ And then the hammer: โ€œ๐˜›๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ญ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ข ๐˜ฑ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ช๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต ๐˜ด๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ข๐˜บ ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ ๐˜’๐˜ข๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ข ๐˜๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ด, ๐˜Ž๐˜ข๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜•๐˜ฆ๐˜ธ๐˜ด๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ, ๐˜—๐˜ฆ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ ๐˜‰๐˜ถ๐˜ต๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜จ๐˜ช๐˜ฆ๐˜จ, ๐˜Š๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜บ ๐˜‰๐˜ฐ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ, ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฑ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ต, ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏโ€™๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ฌ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ญ ๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ค๐˜ฆ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜บ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ช๐˜ณ ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ด.โ€ Translation: any JCPOA-style agreement that depends on the next Democratic president to enforce it is worthless on the day it is signed. The Iranian regime has never kept a deal. The Democratic Party has never enforced one. Therefore, Hanson concludes, ๐ฐ๐ž ๐ก๐š๐ ๐›๐ž๐ญ๐ญ๐ž๐ซ ๐ ๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ฆ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ซ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ซ ๐ฎ๐ง๐œ๐จ๐ง๐๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐Ÿ๐š๐œ๐ž ๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐œ ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ข๐ง, ๐ฐ๐ก๐ข๐œ๐ก ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ก๐ž๐ซ ๐ข๐ง ๐š ๐ซ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ž ๐œ๐ก๐š๐ง๐ ๐ž. That is not a preference. That is a strategic necessity. Anything short of unconditional surrender or regime collapse just sets the clock ticking on the next war โ€” this time with a nuclear-armed ayatollah. ๐•๐ข๐œ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐ƒ๐š๐ฏ๐ข๐ฌ ๐‡๐š๐ง๐ฌ๐จ๐ง ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐š ๐œ๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž ๐ง๐ž๐ฐ๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ข๐ญ. ๐‡๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐œ๐ฅ๐š๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐œ๐š๐ฅ ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ข๐š๐ง ๐ฐ๐ก๐จ ๐ฐ๐ซ๐จ๐ญ๐ž ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐›๐จ๐จ๐ค๐ฌ ๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐š๐ซ ๐œ๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ž๐ ๐ž ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ. ๐‡๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐๐ข๐œ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ƒ๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ๐ ๐“๐ซ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฉ ๐ญ๐จ๐จ๐ค ๐จ๐ง ๐š ๐œ๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ—๐Ÿ‘ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฉ๐ž๐จ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž, ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐š ๐Ÿ’๐Ÿ”-๐ฒ๐ž๐š๐ซ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ž๐ซ๐ซ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ฒ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐€๐ฆ๐ž๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š๐ง ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ข๐๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ, ๐š๐ง๐ ๐๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ฒ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐š๐›๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐š๐ค๐ž ๐ฐ๐š๐ซ ๐ข๐ง ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ“ ๐๐š๐ฒ๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ก๐ข๐ญ๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐š ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฅ๐ž ๐œ๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐ง ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฐ๐ž๐ซ ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐š๐ง๐ญ. ๐“๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐Ÿ๐š๐ฌ๐ญ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ, ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐, ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ž๐œ๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž ๐€๐ฆ๐ž๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š๐ง ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ—๐Ÿ’๐Ÿ“. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ฉ๐ž๐จ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž ๐ฐ๐ก๐จ ๐œ๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ญ ๐š ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ ๐ฐ๐š๐ซ ๐ฐ๐ž๐ซ๐ž ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐  ๐›๐ž๐œ๐š๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐›๐š๐ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐œ๐ค. ๐“๐ก๐ž๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ž๐ซ๐ž ๐ฐ๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐  ๐›๐ž๐œ๐š๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ž ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ฒ ๐ง๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ ๐š ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐›๐จ๐จ๐ค. ๐‡๐š๐ง๐ฌ๐จ๐ง ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ฆ.

M.A. Rothman

89,898 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 3 Monaten

Warm greetings on Indian Foreign Service Day! Hardeep Singh Puri Sir, your journey as a diplomat and now as a key figure in India's leadership is truly inspiring. The pride and responsibility youโ€™ve carried while representing India globally, and now in shaping key policies, is commendable. Wishing you continued success in fostering international relations and driving India's growth forward. Here are some achievements of Shri Hardeep Singh Puri Sir : 1. Participation in G20 Summits: Advocated for global economic stability and cooperation. 2. Ambassador to Brazil: Enhanced bilateral relations and trade between India and Brazil. 3. Permanent Representative to the United Nations: Involved in significant negotiations on peacekeeping and global security. 4. Advocacy for Development Issues: Focused on poverty alleviation and sustainable development at the UN. 5. Promotion of India's Soft Power: Enhanced India's cultural diplomacy and global governance contributions. 6. Role in International Conferences: Contributed to discussions on peace and security at global summits. 7. Strengthening Ties with the Indian Diaspora: Fostered connections and highlighted their role as cultural ambassadors. 8. Crisis Response Initiatives: Led diplomatic responses during crises, providing humanitarian assistance. 9. Global Health Initiatives: Advocated for international cooperation in combating health issues. 10. Advancement of Global Trade Discussions: Promoted fair trade practices for developing nations. 11. Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas: Focused on energy security and sustainable practices. 12. Implementation of PM Gati Shakti National Master Plan: Improved multimodal connectivity and infrastructure development. 13. Expansion of Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana: Provided LPG connections to below-poverty-line households. 14. Support for Electric Mobility: Advocated for electric vehicles to reduce pollution. 15. Investment in Renewable Energy Projects: Championed large-scale solar and wind projects. 16. Housing for All: Implemented PMAY (Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana) for affordable housing. 17. Promotion of International Trade: Facilitated agreements to enhance India's energy exports. 18. Public Health Initiatives: Launched campaigns for safe and clean energy practices. 19. Global Energy Partnerships: Fostered collaborations in the energy sector for security and innovation. 20. Launch of the National Hydrogen Mission: Promoted hydrogen as a clean energy source. 21. Vande Bharat Mission: Led the repatriation of millions of stranded Indians during the pandemic. 22. COVID-19 Response: Maintained supply chains for uninterrupted fuel and energy availability. 23. Support for Startups and Innovations: Encouraged entrepreneurship in energy and aviation sectors. 24. Enhancement of Oil and Gas Exploration: Promoted self-sufficiency in energy resources. 25. Promotion of Alternate Fuels: Advocated for biogas and ethanol usage to support sustainability. 26. Revival of Air India: Played a key role in restoring the national carrierโ€™s operational efficiency. 27. Expansion of LPG Infrastructure: Improved access to clean cooking fuel in rural areas. 28. Skill Development in Aviation: Promoted initiatives to enhance workforce capabilities. 29. Enhancement of Airport Infrastructure: Upgraded airports for better passenger experience. 30. Leadership in Energy Transition Discussions: Influenced sustainable practices in global energy policies. 31. National Biofuel Policy: Promoted the use of biofuels in transportation for energy security. 32. Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC): Improved energy efficiency in urban buildings. 33. Support for Women Empowerment Initiatives: Focused on increasing women's participation in energy sector leadership. 34. Crisis Management in Diplomacy: Ensured timely evacuation and assistance during international emergencies. 35. Engagement with Non-Aligned Movement: Reinforced India's leadership role among developing nations. 36. Role in Climate Agreements: Actively participated in climate change negotiations, including the Paris Agreement. 37. Promotion of India's Maritime Interests: Advocated for security cooperation in maritime affairs. 38. Promotion of Digital Diplomacy: Utilized technology for enhanced diplomatic outreach. 39. Collaboration with International Organizations: Worked with bodies like the International Energy Agency (IEA) for best practices. 40. Crisis Response During Natural Disasters: Coordinated India's humanitarian aid efforts in response to global crises. 41. Global Leadership in Energy Efficiency: Advocated for international collaboration on energy conservation. 42. Public-Private Partnerships in Energy: Encouraged collaborations to enhance energy infrastructure and investment. 43. Support for Renewable Energy Initiatives: Championed policies for sustainable energy generation and usage. 44. Advancement of Smart City Projects: Promoted urban development with intelligent transport systems. 45. Initiatives for Rural Electrification: Focused on extending electricity access to rural communities. 46. International Recognition: Gained accolades for contributions to energy policy and diplomacy. 47. Leadership in Peacekeeping Operations: Advocated for India's role in UN peacekeeping missions. 48. Participation in International Security Dialogues: Engaged in discussions on global security challenges. 49. Role in Counter-Terrorism Efforts: Strengthened India's position in international counter-terrorism discussions. 50. Engagement with Global Energy Forums: Influenced international energy discussions and policies. 51. Smart City Mission: Played a crucial role in the launch and implementation of the Smart City Mission, focusing on urban innovation. 52. Attracting Foreign Investment: Worked to bring in foreign investments in both the petroleum and aviation sectors. 53. Advocacy for Sustainable Urban Planning: Promoted policies to ensure sustainable urban development and housing. 54. Facilitation of International Cooperation in Urban Development: Engaged with global partners to share best practices in urban planning. 55. Launch of Housing Initiatives for Urban Poor: Developed schemes specifically targeting housing for low-income families. 56. Promotion of Energy-efficient Technologies: Advocated for the adoption of cleaner technologies in the energy sector. 57. Support for Womenโ€™s Health Initiatives: Focused on energy access and its impact on womenโ€™s health and well-being. 58. Enhancement of Indiaโ€™s Energy Diplomacy: Strengthened relationships with energy-producing nations. 59. Promotion of Research and Development in Energy: Encouraged innovation in energy technology and research. 60. Implementation of Smart Grids: Promoted the development of smart grids for efficient energy distribution. 61. Role in Enhancing Regional Cooperation: Advocated for regional energy cooperation in South Asia. 62. Promoting Indiaโ€™s Energy Security Agenda: Focused on securing Indiaโ€™s energy needs through diverse sources. 63. Collaboration with Industry Leaders: Worked with industry stakeholders to promote sustainable practices. 64. Global Advocacy for Clean Energy Solutions: Represented Indiaโ€™s interests in global clean energy discussions. 65. Promotion of Corporate Responsibility in Energy: Encouraged corporations to adopt sustainable energy practices. 66. Leadership in Urban Mobility Initiatives: Promoted policies to improve public transport and reduce urban congestion. 67. Development of Integrated Transport Systems: Advocated for a multimodal approach to transportation planning. 68. Promotion of Decentralized Energy Solutions: Supported renewable energy projects at the community level. 69. Encouragement of Local Manufacturing in Energy Sector: Advocated for indigenous production of energy technologies. 70. Promotion of Innovative Financing Mechanisms: Supported new financing models for energy projects. 71. Enhancement of Air Safety Standards: Focused on improving safety measures in civil aviation. 72. Promotion of Cargo and Logistics Services: Advocated for the growth of air cargo services to boost trade. 73. Support for Regional Air Connectivity: Strengthened initiatives for connecting underserved regions. 74. Leadership in Aviation Policy Reforms: Worked towards comprehensive reforms in the aviation sector. 75. Development of Aviation Infrastructure: Facilitated investments in airports and aviation facilities. 76. Community Engagement in Energy Projects: Promoted community involvement in renewable energy projects. 77. Support for Energy Access Initiatives: Advocated for projects that increase energy access for marginalized communities. 78. Promoting Sustainable Agriculture Practices: Focused on the role of clean energy in enhancing agricultural productivity. 79. Engagement with Youth on Energy Issues: Promoted awareness among youth regarding energy conservation and sustainability. 80. Support for Skill Development Programs: Encouraged training programs in renewable energy technologies. 81. Advocacy for Climate Action: Continued efforts in addressing climate change and promoting sustainable practices. 82. Promotion of India as an Energy Hub: Positioned India as a central player in the global energy market. 83. Leadership in Global Energy Transitions: Influenced discussions on transitioning to renewable energy sources. 84. Engagement with Multilateral Organizations: Strengthened Indiaโ€™s position in international organizations related to energy. 85. Commitment to National Development Goals: Aligned energy policies with national development objectives. 86. Promotion of Environmental Sustainability: Advocated for policies that balance development with environmental conservation. 87. Support for Technology Transfer: Encouraged collaboration for the transfer of clean technologies to India. 88. Participation in International Forums on Energy: Actively engaged in global dialogues on energy security and sustainability. 89. Role in Disaster Management Initiatives: Contributed to policies that integrate energy management in disaster response. 90. Implementation of Smart Energy Solutions: Advocated for the adoption of smart meters and energy-efficient appliances to enhance energy management. 91. Promotion of Clean Cooking Solutions: Launched initiatives to provide access to clean cooking fuels to reduce health hazards in rural areas. 92. Strengthening of Regulatory Frameworks: Worked on reforms to streamline regulations in the oil and gas sector, enhancing transparency and efficiency. 93. International Collaborations for Renewable Energy: Established partnerships with countries for joint research and development in renewable energy technologies. 94. Advocacy for Energy Efficiency Labels: Promoted the labeling of appliances to encourage consumers to choose energy-efficient products. 95. Engagement in International Climate Finance Discussions: Represented India in dialogues aimed at securing funding for climate change mitigation projects. 96. Promotion of Urban Sustainability Initiatives: Advocated for integrated urban development strategies that focus on sustainability and livability. 97. Support for the Production of Biofuels: Encouraged initiatives to enhance the domestic production of biofuels to achieve energy security. 98. Advancement of Womenโ€™s Leadership in Energy: Launched programs to promote women's leadership in the energy 99. Fostering Innovation in Energy Startups: Supported initiatives aimed at nurturing startups in the energy sector through mentorship and funding. 100. Commitment to Indiaโ€™s Energy Independence: Continually worked towards policies that enhance Indiaโ€™s energy independence and reduce reliance on imports and 100+ more. Narendra Modi Amit Shah Office of Hardeep Singh Puri Lakshmi M Puri Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas #MoPNG Bharat Petroleum Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited GAIL (India) Limited Indian Foreign Service Association BJP เค—เฅƒเคนเคฎเค‚เคคเฅเคฐเฅ€ เค•เคพเคฐเฅเคฏเคพเคฒเคฏ, HMO India PMO India rasaal dwivedi BJP Delhi Manohar Lal Parshottam Rupala Indian Oil Corp Ltd ChairmanIOC Indian Diplomacy Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs

Rajashekhar Masna

50,775 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 1 Jahr

I think the Singularity could be BORING We were promised flying cars and warp drives. We got same-day delivery and better autocomplete. And somehow, impossibly, weโ€™re bored by it. This is the Boring Singularity. The idea that the most transformative period in human history will feel, to the people living through it, like a long and uneventful Tuesday. I want to explain why this happens. It comes down to three layers. The first is neurological. The second is architectural. The third is physical. Together they create a perfect storm of invisible progress that our minds are designed to ignore. Layer One: The Neurological Filter Here is a thought experiment. Imagine a caveman breaks his arm. For weeks he is miserable. He cannot hunt, cannot gather, cannot contribute. Then the bone heals. Within days of regaining function, he has completely forgotten the misery. The memory of suffering serves no purpose once the threat has passed. Evolution deleted it so he could return to baseline and focus on survival. We do this with everything. We did it with antibiotics. We did it with smartphones. We will do it with longevity. Psychologists call this hedonic adaptation. The human brain is an adaptation machine that returns us to a baseline level of experience regardless of how much our circumstances improve. And here is the critical finding. It only takes about three months for the โ€œnew normalโ€ to cement itself. Any change that plays out over months or years, no matter how revolutionary, simply becomes background noise. Think about what this means for the Singularity. If anti-gravity cars were introduced tomorrow, they would be miraculous for a month, a status symbol for a year, and a frustrating utility that needs maintenance by year three. The internet is a collective telepathic hive mind that moves petabits at lightspeed. It is genuinely god-like power. We experience it as checking emails. The Singularity might already be here. We just cannot feel it because our brains are not designed to feel sustained amazement. They are designed to adapt and move on. Layer Two: The Hidden Infrastructure We expected Blade Runner. Neon towers and chrome robots serving drinks at the bar. What we are actually getting is something I call โ€œReverse Trantor.โ€ In classic science fiction, advanced civilizations build upward and inward. They create city-planets like Trantor in Foundation or Coruscant in Star Wars, layer upon layer of visible technology. Our trajectory is the opposite. We are pushing the infrastructure outward and downward, into spaces humans never see. Consider where the robots actually are. They are not walking down the street. They are in mines and fulfillment centers and vertical farms. The real automation revolution is happening in dark warehouses where no human needs to flip a light switch. You order a package and it arrives faster than it used to. That is the entire perceptible output of a massive transformation in logistics. Thatโ€™s not to say that youโ€™ll never see humanoid robots milling around, only that the vast majority of them will be away from the public. The same principle applies to computation itself. In hindsight, it will look like the entire purpose of inventing computers was to run AI, and everything else was just the bootloader. We are heading toward a world where 99% of all CPU and GPU cycles are dedicated to machine-to-machine processes, and less than one percent is for human-facing tasks. The vast majority of the intelligence infrastructure will be completely invisible to us, humming along as background noise. And the really heavy stuff will be in space. Earth has a finite ability to dissipate heat. To run truly massive AI systems, we will likely move the servers to orbital platforms or Lagrange points where they can vent entropy into the void. The megastructures will exist. They will just be invisible points of light, indistinguishable from stars and space dust. This is the architectural reality of the Boring Singularity. The magic gets hidden in the walls and launched into orbit. What remains on Earth is green and quiet and looks suspiciously like a return to the pastoral. Thatโ€™s not a bad thing, and itโ€™s not to say that we return to a โ€œsteady stateโ€ equilibrium forever. Layer Three: The Hard Limits The final layer is the most sobering. We are hitting the physical ceiling of discovery itself. The Golden Age of science fiction emerged during a specific historical anomaly. Between 1905 and 1970, in a single human lifetime, we went from the Wright Brothers to the Moon, from Newtonian physics to quantum mechanics and the structure of DNA. That created an expectation of constant improvement. Fundamental discoveries happen every decade. The exponential curve goes up forever. Star Trek promised we would keep finding new energy sources and new physics for centuries. The data suggests otherwise. Research on scientific progress shows that we must double research effort every thirteen years just to maintain the same rate of economic growth. Studies of citation patterns reveal that the disruptiveness of new scientific papers dropped by ninety percent between 1945 and 2010. We are publishing more but saying less. The low-hanging fruit is gone. The cost curve tells the story most clearly. In the 1930s, you could discover a new particle with a tabletop experiment in a university lab for a few thousand dollars. It only took a few days to duplicate the splitting of the atom. To confirm the Higgs Boson, however, we needed the Large Hadron Collider, which cost nearly five billion dollars and took decades to build. The next generation of particle physics might require a hundred billion dollars, or trillions. And the math suggests that to probe the truly fundamental structure of reality at the Planck scale, you would need an accelerator the size of a galaxy. We cannot build that. So physics becomes theoretical not because we lack curiosity, but because we can no longer afford to test our hypotheses. Meanwhile, our imagination has outpaced physical reality. We grew up on fiction that treats the laws of physics as suggestions that can be bypassed with clever engineering. And that felt true (at the time) because we kept finding cool exploits, like fiber optics and nuclear fission. But the speed of light appears to be absolute. Thermodynamics is non-negotiable. We can imagine teleportation and warp drives, but there is no known physics that could enable them. This is the Sigmoid Curve in action. Progress is not an exponential line to infinity. It is an S-curve. We have likely passed the steepest part of fundamental discovery, and we are entering the plateau. The Inverted Star Wars So where does this leave us? I think the best model is actually Star Wars, just inverted. In Star Wars, they have had faster-than-light travel and droids for thousands of years. The technology has faded completely into the background. A hyperdrive failure is treated like a flat tire. It is annoying, not existential. Because the tech tree is fully unlocked, all the drama shifts to politics and governance and ideology. The Empire versus the Republic. Trade routes and treaties and coups. We are heading somewhere similar, with one crucial inversion. Our droids will be smarter, but our ships will be slower. We are likely trapped in this solar system by the speed of light. There is no Outer Rim to escape to if you dislike the politics. But our AI systems will be genuinely superintelligent, an invisible omniscient layer managing supply chains and governance and the allocation of resources. This intensifies the politics because there is no exit valve. We are stuck here with each other and with very powerful tools. The optimistic reading is that this represents maturity. For the last century, technology has moved faster than culture, causing constant anxiety. Future shock, always. If technology moves to a plateau, culture finally has time to catch up. Human decisions, not technological accidents, become what determines history. We stop waiting for a gadget to save us. We realize that if we want a better world, we have to build it with the tools we already have, because no new fundamental laws of reality are coming to rescue us. The Verdict The Boring Singularity is not a prediction of stagnation. Things will still change. We will probably see radical longevity and hyper-efficient energy and algorithmic governance that makes traffic and logistics invisible. It will be, by any historical standard, a utopia of convenience. But it will not feel like the future we were promised. The changes will be incremental enough that our brains adapt before we can appreciate them. The infrastructure will be hidden in warehouses and orbiting platforms we never see. And the truly magical discoveries, the new forces of nature and new physics, may simply be too expensive and complex to pursue. The Singularity is not ending with a bang or a whimper. It is ending with a shrug. And because we are humans, we will probably find something to complain about anyway.

David Shapiro (L/0)

14,232 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 6 Monaten

The Economics of Europeโ€™s Descent into Warmongering โ€“ and our duty now! My speech at the European Parliament on the theme of โ€œThe Economic Conditions of Peaceโ€, Tuesday 10th June 2025 [INTRODUCTION] A year ago, I would have started this speech with a lament about the hitherto unimaginable conversion of the European Union from a Peace to a War Project. Not so today. Over the past year, warmongering has seeped into the very fabric of the Union, it has trickled into every policy, it has soaked every one of the thinktanks that generate Europeโ€™s dominant narratives and creeds. Today, therefore, it makes no sense to lament what is now a fact: The EU is now a fully-fledged War Project โ€“ a project that will either land us in permanent war, or it will bankrupt us further, or probably both! Europeโ€™s military Keynesianism, I shall be arguing, is guaranteed to make Europe less safe, more unequal, weaker. Only two interesting questions remain: Why has Europe taken this road? And, now that Europe is on this war path, what is ourduty to our people, to Europeans, to Peace? Let me begin at the very beginning. [THE EU WAS DESIGNED TO BE SUBSERVIENT TO THE UNITED STATES] At the risk of irking Europeanists who believe in their own creation myth, let me be clear: The European Union (from its beginnings as the European Communities of Coal & Steel) was an American Construction โ€“ a part of a US Global Plan that also comprised the Bretton Woods System, the Truman Doctrine and, of course, NATO. Yes, most Europeans hankered for no more war and no more totalitarianism. But the EU was designed in Washington DC. And it was designed specifically not as a competitive market but as a Big Business Cartel run by a democracy-free bureaucracy (also known as the European Commission) not coincidentally located a stoneโ€™s throw from NATOโ€™s headquarters. From 1950 on, the EU was nurtured by and in tune with the interests of the United States โ€“ an inconvenient fact both for Europeโ€™s self-important rulers and for Donald Trump. Looking back, a common thread runs through the entire history of the EU: its total economic dependence on the United States. Initially, the EU was deeply dependent on being part of the Dollar Zone. Then, from 1971 onwards, it was deeply dependent on the American trade deficit. So, one way or another, Europeโ€™s deep dependence on the US was ingrained into its architecture. It will thus take much more than mere pronouncements - or a few hundred billion borrowed euros spent on weaponry - to shed Europeโ€™s in-built dependence on the United States. The fact that the EU was, from the beginning, fashioned as a Big Business Cartel is the reason why the EU needed fixed exchange rates: Currency fluctuations destabilise any cartel, making it hard to maintain the necessary levels of collusion between its participating producers. From 1950 to 1971, the US took care of this problem on Europeโ€™s behalf. As long as it was running a trade deficit with the United States, Europeโ€™s cartel was embedded in the dollar zone โ€“ its currencies tied to the dollar But, when around 1969 Europe (and Japan) started running a trade surplus with the United States, it was game over. On 15th August 1971, the Donald Trump of that era, President Richard Nixon, jettisoned Europe from the dollar zone, his Treasury Secretary cynically telling the dumbfounded Europeans: โ€œFrom today the dollar is our currency but it is your problem!โ€ Two things happened next. First, to save their Big Business Cartel the Europeans scrambled to create their own fixed exchange rate regime. They tried everything: The Snake. The European Monetary System. The European Exchange Rate Mechanism. They all proved flimsy designs that speculators had no trouble crushing. So, in desperation, they created the most noxious currency the human spirit could fashion - the euro. The second development was that, as America expanded its budget and trade deficits, the Eurozone morphed into a German-led net exporting machine whose aggregate demand was subcontracted to the United States. In effect, Americaโ€™s twin deficits operated like a huge vacuum cleaner that sucked into America Europeโ€™s net exports as well as the European exportersโ€™ profits which were thus invested in US Treasuries, US shares and US real estate. Thatโ€™s how, once it was expelled from the dollar zone, Europe became addicted to the US deficits. That was what the Nixon Shock did: It converted Europeโ€™s utter reliance on living within the dollar zone into an even greater dependence on the US deficits. [NEVER MISSING A CHANCE TO MISS AN OPPORTUNITY] Here in Brussels they love the expression that Europe progresses from crisis to crisis. Thatโ€™s another delusion. The crisis of 2008 was our greatest opportunity to render the European Union viable, and to end its deep dependence on the United States. ยท The French and German banks went bankrupt. ยท The Eurozoneโ€™s impossible rules were in tatters. ยท A domino effect, beginning with Greece, was bankrupting our governments. It was the perfect opportunity to transform the EU from a Big Business Cartel, inherently reliant on the US for its aggregate demand, into a functional, internally balanced federation. Instead, Europeโ€™s radical centre (both the centre right and the centre left) decided that they would change everything so as to ensure that nothingchanges. In this vein, they did their worst: Universal austerity for the many. And frantic money printing for the financiers and Big Business. What happens when you crush the incomes of the many and hand over trillions to the very few? Since the many are too poor to buy high value added goods, business stops investing in productive capital โ€“โ€“ while the rich use the free cash to push through the roof house prices, share prices, Bitcoin prices, art, asset prices in general. The natural result is soul-crushing levels of inequality and deep popular discontent. The people got desperate. They even voted for radical progressives like me to enter the Eurogroup! Then, in horror, Brussels and Frankfurt overthrew us, or made Mr Tsipras overthrow his own government, using not the tanks, as they did in Greece in 1967, but the banks โ€“ not that much of a difference really! A coup dโ€™ รฉtat is a coup dโ€™ รฉtat. [TWO SYMBIOTIC AUTHORITARIANISMS] Guess what happened next: Just as in the mid-war period, xenophobic ultra-rightists rose up from the woodwork. They proved a godsent for the shockingly unpopular radical centre whose politicians could now say to voters: It is us or them! But it was equally a godsent for the ultra-right who needed the radical centre to impose the austerity policies which created the discontent which fuelled the anger that delivered the ultra-right votes. To put it differently, if Macron and Le Pen had any sense, they would each keep a framed picture of the other on their bedside tables, saying a little prayer in their hated opponentโ€™s name every night before going to sleep. [SMOKE AND MIRRORS] Liberal Totalitarianism and Ultra-Right-Xenophobic Totalitarianism are accomplices, they feed off each other. Meanwhile, austerity for the many and money printing for the few depletes Europeโ€™s productive foundations, its social fabric, its sense of purpose. Thatโ€™s how the European Union lost any legitimacy it had in the eyes of the public. Sensing this, the Liberal Totalitarians in charge came up with one failed Grand Initiative after another. Who can forget the eminently forgettable Juncker investment plan, the Banking Union, the Green Deal, or the Draghi Report that has now joined them in Historyโ€™s Dustbin? Impressive numbers were announced that, alas, dependably failed to materialise. It was inevitable. As long as our rulers said NO to the political union that could sustain a proper, macroeconomically significant, eurobond, the money to fund the necessary investment could never materialise. Even when they โ€“ finally โ€“ during the pandemic โ€“ did issue common debt, they ended up with common liabilities but no common purpose. Every Grand Initiative ever announced was a dance with failure, smoke and mirrors by which they disguised Europeโ€™s nakedness. The result? After fifteen years of ZERO NET PRODUCTIVE INVESTMENT, ยท Germany is deindustrialising fast, and along with it Eastern and Central Europe, Austria, Northern Italy ยท Political paralysis grows on the back of fiscal pressures ยท Neofascism and xenophobia are rising up everywhere ยท Europeโ€™s dependence on the United States grows stronger at the time Donald Trump is cutting Europe loose ยท The Rest of the World looks at Europe as a sad case of what could have been, an irritating irrelevance. In this sad context, our great and good leaders had another woeful idea for a Grand Initiative: Now that the Green Deal is dead-in-the-water and the Recovery Fund is spent, why not try Military Keynesianism? [THE FOLLY OF MILITARY KEYNESIANISM] Ladies and Gentlemen, Military Keynesianism works in the United States because America has the federal institutions, the monetary sovereignty, the fiscal power, the technostructure, and the common procurement process that are essential in implementing Military Keynesianism. Europe has none of that, nor does it have leaders interested in acquiring any of that. This is why Military Keynesianism cannot work in Europe. Thank goodness it canโ€™t work, I say! For if it could work, Europe would have to emulate the United States in starting a war every year so that the stocks of ammunition, missiles et al could be depleted sufficiently to justify the new colossal orders necessary to maintain Military Keynesianism. Nevertheless, while Europeโ€™s Military Keynesianism cannot and should not work, it serves a purpose โ€“ it is a kind of a solution for, say, Volkswagen: Now that Volkswagen can no longer sell its cars, it hands over whole production lines to Rheinmetall to produce Leopard tanks which von der Leyen makes Greece and Italy buy even though we neither want nor need them. Yes, Military Keynesianism will fail Europe badly, but not before it further bankrupts our states and throws more fuel onto the fire burning down lives and dreams in Ukraineโ€™s killing fields. So, let me be frank: ยท No really-existing enemy of Europe shakes in his boots watching a stagnating, heavily indebted Europe, invest billions in weaponry. Quite the opposite! ยท Military Keynesianism will end up as Europeโ€™s New Austerity for the many and a new money spinner for the few. ยท It will make Europe weaker while prolonging the Ukraine War in a manner that is detrimental to the stated aim of supporting Ukraine. [EUROPEโ€™S SURRENDER TO NATO, ITS ROLE IN UKRAINE] It is at this point that angry yelps will rise up from the press gallery. Canโ€™t you hear them ask: "โ€œIs Russia not ante portas?โ€ โ€œIs Europe not in danger?โ€ โ€œShould Europe remain defenceless, especially now that Trump is abandoning Europe?โ€ My answer is clear: Weakening ourselves economically through a Military Keynesianism that constitutes the New Austerity which will, with mathematical precision, diminish Europe further is no way to make Europe stronger! And lest we forget, Europe already has 1.5m men and women in uniform while, over the past decade, we spent โ‚ฌ2.7 trillion on defence โ€“ a period during which our net productive investment was zero! Now, NATO demands that we spend three times as much - which is totally insane, given how wastefully that โ‚ฌ2.7 trillion was spent. In this light, surrendering our foreign and defence policies to NATO, and sinking further in unsustainable debt just to satisfy President Trumpโ€™s demands for more military spending, is the surest way of making Europe more dependent, less secure, uglier and sadder. In this context, the powers-that-be here in Brussels are anxiously trying to keep their jobs and boost their budgets by spreading the lie that NATO had to expand in order to deter Russian aggression โ€“ when it is exactly the other way round: Like the Mafia, NATO expanded to create insecurity in order to sell us protection! Does this mean that Putin was right to invade the Ukraine? Of course not. What it means is that NATO and Putin are accomplices โ€“ that they needed one another in their joint bid for a confrontation that strengthened both โ€“ at Europeโ€™s expense. It also means that anyone truly interested in Europeโ€™s security and prosperity 1. must dispel the lie that Russia is about to invade us โ€“ it canโ€™t even if it wants to 2. must work tirelessly to kill Europeโ€™s Military Keynesianism, and 3. must work toward a European Peace Process which uses Russiaโ€™s confiscated monies not as a piggybank for more useless Leopard tanks and Leonardo missiles but as a bargaining chip to end the Ukraine War in the context of a comprehensive EU-Russia Peace Treaty. As for the politicians in this town who will not rest until they see Russia on its knees, I have this to say to them: If you really wanted to weaken Russia, to bring Russia to its knees, you should have worked hard to admit Russia into theโ€ฆ Eurozone. In one fell swoop the euro would have wrecked Russiaโ€™s productive basis, it would have indebted its people and its state, it would have made its leaders rush to Brussels and to Frankfurt with begging bowl in hand! You think I am joking. But there is too much truth in this joke for comfort! To sum up my argument so far, Europeโ€™s economic stagnation was the product of its total dependence on the American deficits. This dependence yielded Europeโ€™s complicity with the decade-long American project of inciting a war in Ukraine. And now that the US is decoupling, our rulers โ€“ resembling decapitated chickens โ€“ are running around without their heads screwed on, struggling to find ways of continuing to impede Peace in Ukraine so as to use military funds to prop up Europeโ€™s faltering Big Business Cartel. [WHATโ€™S BEHIND EUROPEโ€™S ETHICAL DECAY: GAZA, TOTALITARIANISM] Ladies and Gentlemen, as we speak here today, Europe is falling headlong into another ethical void: complicity in the Palestinian genocide. It is not just the embarrassment, also known as Mrs Ursula von der Leyen, posing like a cheerleader of Israelโ€™s genocidal army in front of its tanks hours before they stormed Gaza. No, the European Union is not merely complicit due to our subservience to the United States. No, the European Union is also enabling, it is in fact funding, the war criminals of its own accord. Directly. Cynically. With no compunction. ยท BNP PARIBAS and ALLIANZ underwrite the issues of the Israeli government bonds that fund the Israeli meatgrinder in the Palestinian Occupied Territories ยท MAERSK is the prime transporter of the military machine at work in Gaza ยท Since 2007, the European Union has channelled โ‚ฌ2 billion of research funding to Israeli entities producing the means by which Palestinians are ethnically cleansed, targeted, murdered and maimed. But there is something even scarier going on: Some of our top institutions depend financially on backing Israelโ€™s genocide. If Europe were to do its duty and sanction Israel, the Technical University of Munich stands to lose โ‚ฌ195.4 million from the EUโ€™s HORIZON program which funds the University to carry out joint research with Israeli institutions. Ladies and Gentlemen, Europe carries an enormous guilt. The pogroms against the Jews started here, in Europe. Europeans carried out genocides across Africa, in the Americas, in Australia. By forming the EU as a Peace Project, we claimed a chance to make amends for Europeโ€™s past genocides. However, our dependence on the US and our ruling classโ€™s penchant to profit from imperialism have made this impossible โ€“ and so Europeโ€™s hands are, again, covered in the blood of innocents, in Gaza, in Ukraine, in the Sudan, in Libya, in Yemen, in Syria. It has also brought totalitarianism back into our midst, here in Europe. When the German authorities banned me from entering Germany for the crime of co-organising with German Jews a conference on the theme of โ€˜A Just Peace in the Middle Eastโ€™, they were making a point: To them, letting the rivers of Palestinian blood flow unimpeded represented their chance of washing off their hands the guilt over the Holocaust, over the other German genocide in Namibia, of Belgiumโ€™s crimes against humanity in the Congoโ€ฆ It is, therefore, a clear warning to us: Economic stagnation begets warmongering which begets a revived European white settler mentality. This Europe has fallen so far into a moral crevice that it cannot easily climb out of it. Europeโ€™s Liberal Totalitarianism, which we in Greece experienced in all its horror ten years ago, is now everywhere โ€“ and it is throwing wide open the gates through which Xenophobic Ultra-Right Totalitarianism arrives to darken our doorstep. The time to rise up against both forms of totalitarianism is now. On behalf of the peoples of Europe. [WHAT MUST WE DO?] So, what must we do? Let us begin by grasping that: ยท The economic condition for Peace is to de-couple Europe's economy from America's wars! ยท But for that we must end, once and for all, Europeโ€™s dependence on the United States. ยท This entails ending Europeโ€™s dependence on net exports to America. ยท Which means rebalancing Europeโ€™s internal economy through o new productive green investments, o an end to structural austerity o an end to the madness of cartel-infested electricity โ€˜marketsโ€™ o a new monetary commons by which to end the bankersโ€™ monopoly over payments and to institute a personal dividend for all o a new EU-China deal that liberates us from Americaโ€™s agenda of intensifying a pointless New Cold War at our expense. Only by transforming Europeโ€™s political economy can we end the never-ending fragmentation which breeds war, totalitarianism and the embarrassment of being led by cheerleaders of genocide and permanent war with Russia, like Ursula von der Leyen and Kaja Kallas. How can we accomplish that? In two ways. First, we need a Credible Plan for a Europe worth fighting for. Second, we must organise a campaign of civil and governmental disobedience in our countries and, potentially, in the European Council until our Plan for Europe gets a chance. We, DiEM25, have worked for a decade on this Plan โ€“ our Green New Deal for Europe โ€“ and are happy to share it with you, so that you can refine, revise, adapt it. You, the 5S Movement and other parties eager to partake across Europe, have the organisation that we lack so that, together with our MERA25 transnational parties, we can together help organise the campaign of civil and governmental disobedience without which nothing will change, nothing will impede Europeโ€™s, Italyโ€™s, Greeceโ€™s, indeed Germanyโ€™s secular decline. [CONCLUSION] So, to conclude, seventy-five years of this European Union teach us that we face a stark choice. A choice between a Dependent-on-the-United States, Warmongering, Stagnating Europe. Or an Independent, Non-Aligned, Prosperous, Green Europe. A choice between a von der Leyen-type Commission that greenlights genocide, impedes Peace, illegally deletes her Pfizer chat history, lobbies for Lockheed Martin, and borrows money we canโ€™t repay to buy weaponry we do not need - while condemning People and Planet to impecunity. Or European Institutions optimised against raw power and in favour of common prosperity. A choice between being at the beck and call of the boardrooms of Rheinmetall, Leonardo and Pfizer, blind to the tax havens where war profits and tax fraud hide, while our coastguards turn refugees into corpses. Or a Europe of rational, that is a radical, humanism. To even have this choice, our immediate task must be to end war, to end genocide and to terminate before it is too late the New Austerity going by the name of Military Keynesianism.

Yanis Varoufakis

25,973 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 1 Jahr

The 40,000% ROI "Bug": How Claude Code Cracked the TradingView Holy Grail most people think the elite traders at the top of the mountain have some secret indicator or a hidden math formula that gives them a forty thousand percent return. they assume the game is rigged against the small player and that you need a multi million dollar budget just to get a seat at the table. the truth is that the holy grail of trading is actually hidden in plain sight inside a community tab that most people scroll past every single day i spent years losing money to liquidations and over trading because i thought i had to manually predict where the price was going next. i even spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on developers to build apps for me because i was convinced that i would never be able to code the systems myself. it turns out that once you stop trying to be a genius and start using the tools that are already available you can crack the code to unlimited trading strategies the secret is not in a single indicator but in the process of research back test and implement. if you go to the community section of trading view you will find an endless stream of source code for indicators that people have built over decades. most traders just slap these on a chart and hope for the best but if you are a data dog like me you know that a chart is just a pretty picture that lies to you i believe that code is the great equalizer because it allows us to take these public ideas and turn them into fully automated systems that trade for us while we sleep. i decided to learn to code live on youtube to show everyone that you can iterate your way to success without being a math wizard or a stanford graduate. now i have fully automated systems that manage my capital instead of getting liquidated by emotional decisions in the middle of the night the biggest trap in the trading world is something called repainting and it is the reason why so many strategy back tests look like they are printing money when they are actually just a scam. repainting happens when an indicator looks at future data to tell you what happened in the past which makes every buy and sell signal look like a perfect entry at the top and bottom. if you trust a back test on a basic chart without understanding the logic underneath you are just building a house on a foundation of sand this is why i transitioned all of my serious work into python because python does not lie to you. in python you can control the data flow tick by tick and bar by bar to ensure that no future data is leaking into your strategy. i built a back test architect which is a specialized sub agent that knows exactly how to take a simple idea and test it against twenty five different data sources all at once when you run a strategy across btc eth apple google and tesla you start to see the real truth about whether a strategy has an edge or if it was just a lucky fluke on one chart. i saw one strategy this week that showed a one million percent return which sounds like a total lie but the data does not have an ego. even if a number looks insane you have to investigate it and incubate it with tiny size to see if it holds up in the live market you must treat your trading like a business where you are the manager and the code is your team of tireless employees. i have sub agents running for me right now that act as masters of specific tasks like converting pine script into python or optimizing exit logic. if you are not using these specialized ai assistants in your workflow you are essentially trying to build a skyscraper with a hand saw while everyone else is using heavy machinery most people get stuck in the beginner phase because they think they need to write every single line of code from scratch. the reality is that the best developers are just really good at importing the hard work of others and connecting it like lego blocks. i use a library called ccxt that allows my bots to communicate with every major exchange in the world with just a few lines of script which saves me months of development time the reason i show everything live is because the industry is filled with gatekeepers who want to keep the secrets of automation to themselves. they want you to stay as a manual trader who pays high fees and provides liquidity for their algorithms. once you learn to automate you are no longer a victim of the market but a participant in the architecture of the financial system if you are sitting there right now feeling defeated because you just got smoked on a trade or you missed a massive pump you have to realize that those emotions are your greatest enemy. a computer does not feel fomo and it does not get tilted after a loss; it just waits for the next signal that fits the parameters you defined. my mission is to help you get to a place where you can walk away from the screen and let the machines do the heavy lifting learning to code is actually much easier than learning a second language because the syntax is logical and the feedback is immediate. i spent ten years in tech scared to touch a keyboard for anything other than emails because i thought i was not smart enough for engineering. once i realized that code is just logic i was able to build my first profitable bot within a few months and i have never looked back the transition from a manual trader to an algorithmic expert is about building a robust framework for testing your ideas as fast as possible. you want to be able to find an indicator on trading view convert it to python and run it against years of historical data in less than five minutes. if you can do that you have a higher chance of success than ninety nine percent of the people who are just drawing lines on a screen one of the most powerful strategies i found recently combines the squeeze momentum indicator with smart money concepts. when you test these individually they might show a decent return but when you combine them and add a filter like the adx you can find setups that have a massive expectancy. the key is to look for strategies that show positive returns across multiple different asset classes and time frames simultaneously even if a strategy looks like it is printing a forty thousand percent return you must always remain skeptical and look for the catch. i always incubate my new ideas with tiny capital for at least a few weeks to see how they handle real world slippage and fees. a back test is a map of the past but the live market is a wilderness that changes every single day this is why i believe in the rbi method which stands for research back test and implement. you spend your mornings looking for new ideas your afternoons stress testing them with ai and your evenings deploying the winners to the market. it is a systematic approach to wealth that removes the need for luck or guessing what a celebrity is going to tweet next the most successful traders in history like jim simons did not sit around looking at rsi levels on a fifteen minute chart. they built systems that identified mathematical edges and then scaled those systems until they were managing billions of dollars. you do not need thirty one billion dollars to change your life but you do need the discipline to stop trading like a human and start thinking like a system i give away so much for free on youtube because i want to build a community of data dogs who are all chasing the same goal of financial freedom through automation. when we work together and share our findings we can collectively identify edges that nobody else is looking at. the world is moving towards an ai dominated economy and if you are not learning to control the machines you are going to be controlled by them the road to automation is not a straight line and you will run into bugs that make you want to throw your computer out the window. but every time you fix an error and every time you optimize a script you are getting one step closer to a life where you own your time. code really is the great equalizer and it is waiting for you to pick it up and start building your own future if you can fly then run and if you can run then walk but whatever you do you must keep moving forward in this journey. trading can be heartless but the logic of code is always fair and consistent. stop being the liquidity for someone else's bot and start building the walls that will protect your capital forever

Moon Dev

245,471 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 6 Monaten

Just in $AMD Anush "Speed is the moat"|ROCm๐ŸŽ™๏ธ In the race to define the future of AI, what's the one advantage that truly lasts? It's not proprietary tech, argues Anush Elangovan Elangovan, VP of AI Software at AMD , but the sustainable speed of innovation. He explains why AMD is rejecting the "walled garden" model for its open source ROCm stack, betting that an open community flywheel is the key to victory. Listen to understand how this open strategy is designed to out-innovate closed systems by empowering developers to solve everything from frontier-model challenges to the mundane, everyday problems that define the "last mile" of AI. AMD ROCm Software: Part 1 Transcript [00:00:00] Andrew Zigler: Joining me is Anush Elangovan, VP of AI software at AMD. And when people talk about AI compute, the conversation often stops at hardware specs, but it's more than just physical chips that win the game. It's also the software ecosystems supporting them. [00:00:18] Andrew Zigler: The prevailing strategy in the industry has been to build something like a walled garden. You know, something closed, proprietary locks, developers in. But AMD is betting on an entirely different play, open source acceleration, and with rock, their open source AI software stack. AMD is building not just hardware parity, but an innovation flywheel that's powered by the community with interoperability and the freedom to scale without all of that pesky lockin. [00:00:48] Andrew Zigler: And in this world, speed is your moat and how fast you can innovate while your platform remains open, flexible, and standardize across all of its applications. That's what we're gonna explore [00:01:00] today. So Anush, I'm really excited to have you here. Welcome to Dev Interrupted. [00:01:04] Anush Elangovan: Thanks for having me. Uh, super excited to chat about it. [00:01:07] Andrew Zigler: Amazing. Well, let's go ahead and dive right in with kind of what I laid it out with in the beginning, the idea of the moat and it being about speed. I wanna unpack that a bit because that came from you when you and I first spoke. And I, and I want to know, you know, how do you define speed inside of AMD beyond just things like hardware, benchmarks. [00:01:27] Anush Elangovan: Yeah, that's a very good question. So when we typically talk about speed, everyone's like, Hey, hardware benchmark specs, right? Like, uh, memory bandwidth or, or flops. And that is one important part of it, uh, AMD does very well. With that, we do have, a, a very good history of executing on that axis. [00:01:47] Anush Elangovan: But when I say speed is the moat, it is about, uh, how we prepare, how we build the muscle to run the race for a long time and run it fast. And it is [00:02:00] not about a single point in time that you've, you've beat some you know, benchmark and, and you declare victory. It's about building the ability to consistently develop and deliver. [00:02:13] Anush Elangovan: Both hardware and software innovation at scale and do it fast, right? Like, you know, we we're increasingly getting to a point where models come out and they're, uh, you know, a year or two ago it was like, Hey, they work on AMD on day zero, which is great, but now they are performing on AMD the day it releases, right? [00:02:32] Anush Elangovan: So, what does it take to Prefetch where the industry is going? Be prepared to intercept. At that point is what you know, I, I refer to as you know, the, the speed factor in, in creating this mode, right? And the mode is just shed all things that hold you back and run as fast as you can. [00:02:53] Anush Elangovan: Uh, because the pace of innovation that is, uh, being seen in, in AI [00:03:00] industries is just. Amazing. Right? And it's like, it's transformational at at how you generate electricity. It's transformational as at how you build data centers. It's transformational at how you deploy compute, networking. It's transformational at what kind of use cases you, you know, uh, use AI for. [00:03:17] Anush Elangovan: Uh, and for that, you need to be prepared to, see what comes tomorrow and be prepared to run the race tomorrow. [00:03:23] Andrew Zigler: Yeah, it's a really great perspective because it highlights that it's not just like a checkpoint that you run through. I like how you called out, like it's not just hitting that benchmark or being the best in class at that moment, in that snapshot, it's about having a. The throughput and about having that dedication to the idea and continuing to deliver on it. [00:03:43] Andrew Zigler: It's not just crossing the threshold, but it's also being the engine. And that's what, that's what protects a business. That is the moat, because the moat is that innovation layer, the faster and more, uh, future forward. That you can work and think, [00:04:00] you know, the better. Uh, we, we talk a lot about like future forward work styles. [00:04:04] Andrew Zigler: Like what are the things I could be doing right now today that are gonna be like, way more useful tomorrow? Let, let's abandon those, workflows that are older and that kind of like, that translates into. An advantage when you work that way. You know, what kind of things have you learned working with, uh, like across all spectrums of people who would use ROCm, right? [00:04:23] Andrew Zigler: You have like the developers, but then you also have the enterprises and you have this large span of adoptees, right? So what is the, what does that look like that you learn? [00:04:32] Anush Elangovan: Yeah, so, so the way I look at it is there are gonna be pockets of different, uh, you know, cadences, right? Like, so people who are deploying in enterprises, for example, right? The validation and how long it takes for them to deploy an LLM that's secure. It's, with guardrails, et cetera, maybe longer. [00:04:52] Anush Elangovan: but you still have to go through the process and you have to be prepared to like, walk that walk to deploy an enterprises. That doesn't mean it's [00:05:00] not fast, that's as fast as you can do for that industry, right? And if you are deploying AI in healthcare, right, it's, it's got its own, uh, cycle. [00:05:07] Anush Elangovan: but in each one of these, you want to see how, like, go down to the essence of what is it that you actually have to do. And, you know, I, I, I like how you framed it. It's like it's, you shed your prior assumptions of how things are done, right. And, and you kind of build up from a, uh, first principles, uh, approach to say, this is how I could use AI to unlock, whatever I'm doing. [00:05:33] Anush Elangovan: And, and, some of it, you know, it's good to really step back and look at. Just question every part of it, right? Like right now you're getting chat GPT and, Gemini competing for like, math, olympiads and, and, uh, college, uh, reasoning, uh, tests. Right? And, and those are like that, that is amazing and increasingly like complex tasks that they're trying to do. [00:05:58] Anush Elangovan: But there may also be like. [00:06:00] More mundane things that AI could, could get applied to. Right? And, and so when we think about shedding old ways, you wanna shed it not just in like the tip of the spear. It's like, you know, I'm gonna see what's the frontier model. It's also, it could be something as simple as. [00:06:18] Anush Elangovan: How do you choose a, a movie, uh, you know, like a recommendation system, right? Or, or, uh, an automated, uh, flight, uh, rebooking system. So the moment, you know, your flight is late, uh, right now it's a notification, right? It's like, oh, you got a text message saying your flight's late. And I got that like three times this week. [00:06:38] Anush Elangovan: But anyway, uh, and, and, and, and, I was just like, okay, so if I were to rethink this. All this MCPs that we have that should be hooked up into an MCP that says, your flight's delayed. Here are your options. If you want, you know, these are the paid options. Yeah. Here are the free options. This will get you back into your you know, Toronto airport [00:07:00] tonight. [00:07:00] Anush Elangovan: Or if you stay, here's a hotel plus this, plus this, plus. It's just like, go ahead is all I should say. Versus now I'm like, okay, can someone, you know, can I call a travel agent? Can I do this? Can I go online and log into And you know, so we gotta fundamentally rethink even those like small, nuances of, things that we do that can be automated out and AI is really, really good at doing something like this, right? Maybe I just explained an AI startup idea right now. Somebody should just start that. [00:07:29] Andrew Zigler: I think you did. Yeah, you definitely did. Someone, one of our listeners is definitely going to lift that off of you. I, I, I, you know, I hate being on the receiving end of those. You feel a little helpless and then you have to like, follow the whole flow. So I know what you mean. Like I, I like how you called out that the build and this like. [00:07:45] Andrew Zigler: Where speed is your moat and the innovation layer is protecting you, is what makes you better than your competitors. How you scale that and you bring that to market. So by understanding the problems that you're solving, uh, throwing away those older assumptions, but also [00:08:00] recognizing that like. We're building every single day, new things and new ways of using stuff that we're still figuring out the implications of. [00:08:08] Andrew Zigler: And so when you have a lot of velocity and you're introducing a lot of new ideas, and maybe you have that workflow now that automatically rebook your flight off of your late flight text message, and uh, I know I would certainly use it, but you know, what kind of philosophies guide the way that y'all think about building this ecosystem to manage that stability while letting folks. [00:08:29] Andrew Zigler: Play with the speed and the assumptions and the airplane re bookings. [00:08:34] Anush Elangovan: so, so I think, you know, we need to peel one layer down, right? and the philosophy is, Hey, we, we just discovered electricity, right? And you know what we're gonna do? We are gonna make motors, uh, or dynamos, right? Like engines. Uh, sure. We don't know if it's gonna be a Ferrari that you're gonna make, or it's a a a a dump truck. [00:08:57] Anush Elangovan: That's good for doing this. But let's [00:09:00] let, which is also required, right? You need a dump truck. You need a garbage truck. And, [00:09:04] Andrew Zigler: Yeah. You need the [00:09:04] Anush Elangovan: course you need, uh, a Ferrari for a midlife crisis, right? So, [00:09:09] Andrew Zigler: precisely. [00:09:10] Anush Elangovan: But, but my, uh, point is what do we build next? And, uh, and this is what I meant by like, okay, let's, let's take those baby steps to build the. [00:09:20] Anush Elangovan: Infrastructure that's required that we know we'll have to use, right? So, so if I just discovered electricity, okay, great. Now one, how do I save this electricity and how do I use it? So there's battery technology, so you need to do something like that, right? Like so. But then you also want to make it into an actionable thing. [00:09:37] Anush Elangovan: You want to make it for like automobiles, or you wanna use it for, you know, powering, uh, entire cities. So it is that transformational. So, uh, AI is that transformational. So, if you distill down, it'll, it'll come down to how do we think about, what we can do with this this fundamental technology that, We may not be aware of what it [00:10:00] is gonna unlock next, but at least you know the next step is clear, right? It's like a dense fog, you know, it's gonna be like, it, it's the right path. You see the light, but it's kind of like out there and, and the steps you're taking are concrete and you're like, okay, this is good. [00:10:16] Anush Elangovan: I, this is better than where I was or where we were. So we are moving forward. So you can build with the. Intuition from what you see in the short term and a tactical view, but towards what you think the future is gonna be. [00:10:28] Andrew Zigler: Right. You almost like we're all in this like fog of war, right? And like you said, you're reaching out and you're trying to step through it. You could think of it too, as like you're in the dark and your hands are up in front of you and you know that. You're, you're not gonna run your face into a wall because your hands are out in front of you, but you're not gonna maybe do much better than that. [00:10:45] Andrew Zigler: So that's kind of like, I think the eco, the, the industry, the world that we find ourselves in, uh, and we all have to, then this becomes the power of an ecosystem, of a group of people working together to create that layer of, [00:11:00] uh, of establishing the [00:11:01] Anush Elangovan: exactly. And I, I, I just, instead of, you know, saying fog of war I describe it as like, you're in this. Beautiful valley with like a morning, uh, fog that's in. You can smell the flowers. You, you hear the birds. You are like, okay, it's, we are in like, uh, utopian paradise and yes, I just need to like, continue the walk, right? [00:11:24] Anush Elangovan: and then move forward with that, conviction that you're in the right spot. [00:11:27] Andrew Zigler: Yeah. So let's talk about that ecosystem world. This nice, I love how you describe it, this grassy side of a hill in the morning that's covered in some mist and maybe we can't see 30 feet in one direction, but it sure is a beautiful hill and it smells nice. And so we're all here. And why is, in that world, why is. [00:11:44] Andrew Zigler: You know, open source, their strategic advantage that y'all are going for in the AI hardware market. And, and then how does like ROCm turn that into wins for people within that ecosystem? [00:11:56] Anush Elangovan: you know, the, the way we look at it is this, is kind of like how I view [00:12:00] AI and the ecosystem, right? But, but it is for everyone to enjoy. Uh, and so we do want to make sure that. You know, it is, uh, beneficial for everyone. [00:12:09] Anush Elangovan: The ecosystem can come in and, and innovate. It's an open innovation engine. and uh, it is very different from, you know, having a walled garden with, Hey, only I know how to do this and I'm gonna do it and throw it over the fence and you can use it or keep walking, right? So we'd like to be good citizens that way, but also. [00:12:30] Anush Elangovan: Uh, it is self-fulfilling in a way, right? Like it, the, the pace at which we innovate with open source is unmatched. Like, you know, our serving engines are like VLLM and, and sg l. Those things, uh, those frameworks are like super, super aggressive in terms of how fast they come out with features and how fast they can you know, get performant models out. [00:12:52] Anush Elangovan: And that compared with what, uh, you'd get from, you know, the likes of like T-R-T-L-L-M or something is always lagging, right? Because you [00:13:00] just can't keep up with you know, 200 commits a week just on one particular model to get that model really performant [00:13:06] Andrew Zigler: And, and, and in that world where, you know, everyone can enjoy the winds of this, what kind of customer stories or innovation stories have really stood out to you and excite you about building and creating this place for developers? [00:13:19] Anush Elangovan: Yeah. So I think the parts that are super exciting for me are when when we get to see a customer that is first skeptical. Then they start a little like, okay, fine, we'll give you a chance. Uh, we do a simple, uh, POC and then they're like, huh, this seems to work. Yeah, we told you it works. [00:13:42] Anush Elangovan: You don't have to change one line of code. Really? Yes, no need to change one line of code. Okay, let's try a production workload. So then they try it. Oh, you're more performant than the competition. Yes. We're more performant than, than the competition. So how much does it cost? And we're like, oh, it's your TCO is better with, uh, [00:14:00] AMD. [00:14:00] Anush Elangovan: So again, they're like, wow, okay, good. So now how do we deploy at scale? And then we go deploy it at scale. And when they give a thumbs up on that and they say, this is good, right? That's when you know, you, you see it go full circle from like, oh, we, we've never heard about AMD to like actually deploy to tens of thousands of GPUs In the order of a few months, right? It, it, it really is fascinating to see and very exciting and invigorating to [00:14:28] Andrew Zigler: Yeah. At like a great exposure to a lot of interesting problems. And, and then people using the infrastructure, the, the technology available to solve those problems. Really specific problems by the way, that's often why they're bringing their data and AI to it, uh, is because it is really specific and important for them. [00:14:45] Andrew Zigler: And there's a, a lot I think that other engineering orgs can learn and even emulate from AMD's success and, and having this open source ecosystem and it causing this acceleration within. You [00:15:00] know, uh, customers and enterprises that use and adopt the tools and, and, and that creates an advantage. And that goes back to why we're talking and like the real thesis of our conversation today. [00:15:10] Andrew Zigler: So how do you think engineering leaders that are listening to this and obviously tapping into this great success AMD has from an open source flywheel, how do you think other, other folks building in the same space can foster that open, first, that open source oriented culture in order to, you know, accelerate their innovation goals? [00:15:29] Anush Elangovan: Yeah, that's a very good question. So the startup that um, was acquired by AMD we, we built, I mean, we started off doing iot stuff and you know, smart ring and all that, right? But in the, the end of like, uh, and not the end, the last six years of the company was building ML compilers. [00:15:47] Anush Elangovan: And ml, ML compilers are like super, uh, complicated, sophisticated, advanced algorithms, dah, dah, dah. but it was all open source, right? So our VCs were like, wait, what do you mean your core [00:16:00] IP is open source? And um, the speed is the moat applied even then, right? It was just like, yes, if you have an idea that. [00:16:08] Anush Elangovan: Because someone saw this idea that you are, they're gonna be able to catch up, then you probably have the wrong idea anyway. But if they are, you know, you execute and they're gonna catch up, that you should assume they're gonna catch up. Right? So you gotta move forward. So keeping it open source is super important. [00:16:25] Anush Elangovan: But also to your question on like, you know, the learnings from an AMD standpoint, right? If there are, hard problems, I'd say dig in and work through it, right? Like there's no way but through it, right? That should be the simple mentality. And more, uh, frequently than not. you'll see that you'll just make it through in a, in, in good form. [00:16:52] Anush Elangovan: But if you doubt it and you're like, oh, I don't know if I should commit, if I'm, I, you know, what should just commit to do the right thing [00:17:00] every step, right? Every step, and just keep taking one step in front of the other. And in no time you'll see that you'll be running. Right. And, and yes, the first few steps will be like, yeah, everyone's complaining about your software quality. [00:17:15] Anush Elangovan: Everyone's complaining about this and that, and it doesn't work. And, and a few steps in, you know, you get, you get the hang of all the complaints that are coming in. You get the feedback loop. You're like, okay, what, what are you prioritizing again? One step in front of the other, right? You just keep knocking that out and then you get to a point where you're, it just becomes second nature, right? To do the, to do the right thing. And, and then yes, if someone gives you two options, you'll be like, fine. This is, uh, you know, there's always the resource trade off. There's always a human capital trade off, but what's the right thing to do? of course, I, I'm pragmatic about what we choose, but, but if the right thing for your long-term success is dig in, go first, principles, make it [00:18:00] happen. [00:18:00] Anush Elangovan: Well. Then just go for that. There's, there is no shortcut to [00:18:04] Andrew Zigler: acknowledging, you know, how it aligns with your mission, your core company goals, and what you're looking to achieve. And, and I, I love how you rightfully called out that in the open source world and you know, you have your technology that you've built, what you think is your moat upon, right? [00:18:22] Andrew Zigler: It's your code and, and to open source that, or to just make it where anyone could peer in is, you know. Scary in one regard, but two, it just kind of feels like you're handing away your throne room in some kind of sense, a very direct feeling sense. But the ultimately, you were really right to call out, and this is something I think about all the time, that the real power there is still the speed This the speed. [00:18:42] Andrew Zigler: That was the moat at the beginning of our conversation. It's the speed in combination with your. Very specific domain understanding of what you're building and what you're creating, and your new role as the steward of that world and how people plug into it, which [00:19:00] has frankly, a lot more influence and power than lording over a closed. [00:19:04] Andrew Zigler: You know, repository or an ecosystem, and like you said, like throwing things over the wall. Sure. There, there might be people always on the other side of that wall, but you're not gonna have a great connection with them. You're not gonna be able to really clearly understand them. I, I like your metaphor of the side of the field of the mountain a lot more. [00:19:23] Andrew Zigler: But, but in the, in this world, you know, where. That speed is, is the power and, and open source is just one way that you can harness that speed to get really far ahead and to innovate. , There's other parts of this equation that you can be experimenting with too, and I'd love to pick your brain about them as a software leader and, and, and one of them is about looking forward and kind of understanding that future that we're all building towards and beyond today's models and hardware. [00:19:48] Andrew Zigler: You know, what do you see as the next major bottleneck or opportunity in the AI compute space? As, as you know, enterprises and folks start to get a little more mature about what's available to [00:20:00] them. [00:20:00] Anush Elangovan: Yeah, I think, the bottleneck and opportunity is, uh, what I'd call, call walking the last mile of ai. Right. Uh, and like I I, I gave you an example, uh, previously, but, but it's similar to that. It's like there are cases where Humans have so many, uh, things to do in your day. You know, like the, if we sit down and actually had a customer focus like, okay, these customers lives, I'm gonna save four hours of this customer's life. And if you actually sit down and look at all of that, it'll be. Easily automatable, easily you know, uh, applicable, uh, for ai, right? [00:20:39] Anush Elangovan: Like, but then making it happen is gonna take a little bit, right? It's like maybe it's, uh, paying your utility bill, right? Or something like that, right? Or, or, your healthcare explanation of benefits. Uh, like, I'm sure you get an explanation of benefits, and I'm like, I, I don't even know what that thing is. [00:20:55] Anush Elangovan: It's just like EOB and like. [00:20:57] Andrew Zigler: it's a big, a big old PDF. Yeah, [00:21:00] exactly. [00:21:01] Anush Elangovan: Like, like, I'm like great straight to the, uh, shredder, right? And but that could be, you know, automated with the ai, right? It, it, it'd be like, Hey, the summary of this thing is you went and visited this day. Everything is okay. Everything is paid for, so don't worry, it's not a bill. [00:21:17] Anush Elangovan: That again, the same, uh, thing, but the sense of what that information overload is could be. Digested by ai, uh, accumulated over time and retrieved when you need it. Like, I don't, I actually don't even need to know this EOB right now, unless of course, whenever I need to know it, that maybe, you know, like for some benefits I need to figure out what do, what did I do over the past year and how do I apply it? Source:

Mike

14,195 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 8 Monaten

Why Opus 4.6 Is The Final Boss Of Algorithmic Trading (Full Bot Build) the day of the human trader is officially over and most people are still staring at charts like it is 1995. wall street is terrified because the barrier to entry just got deleted by a piece of software that can outthink a stanford graduate in seconds. they want you to believe that you need a multi million dollar education to compete with the big banks. they want you to stay stuck in the cycle of emotional trading and leverage because that is how they pay for their hamptons houses. but there is a specific reason why every retail trader is about to become obsolete unless they pivot right now. i am going to show you exactly why your current strategy is a mathematical death trap and how a single jump in technology just changed the game forever every time you sit down at your computer to draw lines on a chart you are entering a gunfight with a toothpick. the institutions have been using high frequency algorithms for decades while you are trying to guess which way the candle is going to move based on a feeling in your gut. it is not a fair fight and it was never intended to be. last year we were looking at models that could barely handle basic logic but now the intelligence has scaled to a point where the machines are finding edges we did not even know existed. there is a ghost in the machine that is pulling out strategies with sharp ratios so high they look like typos. if you do not understand how to harness this power you are essentially donating your capital to the people who already have too much of it i spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on developers because i was too scared to learn how to code myself. i thought that being the idea guy was enough and that i could just hire people from upwork to build my dreams. i got rinsed for years paying for apps and bots that did not work because i did not have my hands on the wheel. it took losing a massive amount of money through liquidations and over trading to realize that nobody was coming to save me. i had to become the person who could build the systems or i was going to be another statistic in the graveyard of traders who thought they were smarter than the math. once i finally sat down and forced myself to understand the syntax everything shifted and the world became a giant playground of data the truth is that code is the great equalizer because it does not care where you came from or what school you went to. i got held back in seventh grade and my teacher told me i would not make it around here. that kind of talk is meant to keep you in your place but the computer does not have a bias. if you can write the logic the system will execute it exactly as told regardless of your background. we are living in a time where a kid in a basement can build a system that rivals a hedge fund because the big tech companies are subsidizing our intelligence. they are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on infrastructure and we are the ones who get to reap the rewards of their competition most people fail in this game because they fall in love with a single idea and refuse to let it go even when it is burning their account to the ground. they spend months or years trying to make one indicator work when the data clearly shows it is trash. you have to drop the ego and realize that your intuition is probably your biggest liability. the secret to winning is iterating to success by testing a hundred ideas until you find the one that actually sticks. i call it the rbi system which stands for research backtest and implement. if you skip any of these steps you are just gambling with extra steps and the house always wins in the end research is where most traders get lazy because they just want a magic bot that prints money while they sleep. they go to youtube and find some guy promising a ninety percent win rate with a rsi crossover. that is not research that is falling for marketing fluff designed to sell you a dream. real research happens when you dive into white papers and study what the quants are actually doing on wall street. you look for market inefficiencies like liquidation clusters and cross exchange discrepancies that are hidden in plain sight. by the time you finish this process you should have a list of ideas that are grounded in reality instead of wishful thinking backtesting is the filter that saves you from losing your life savings on a bad hunch. most people use tools that repaint or give them false confidence because the data is not being handled correctly. if you are using a basic charting platform to see if your strategy works you are likely seeing a version of history that does not exist. you need to use raw python libraries like backtesting py to see the cold hard truth of how your logic would have performed. when you see a drawdown of thirty percent on paper you realize that using ten times leverage would have deleted your account five times over. the math does not lie and it is the only thing that can protect you from your own greed the most dangerous drug in the world is leverage because it makes you feel like a genius right before it makes you a pauper. i have watched two billion dollars get liquidated in a single day because people thought they could predict the bottom with fifty times leverage. the exchanges can see exactly where your liquidation price is and they have every incentive to push the price there to hunt your liquidity. you are playing in a casino where the house can see your cards and they are actively trying to take them from you. the only way to win is to stop playing their game and start using limit orders to save on the fees that are slowly bleeding you dry it is funny how much money people will spend on food and entertainment but they will hesitate to invest in their own education. they will spend a thousand dollars on a weekend out but will not put that same money into learning a skill that could provide for them for the rest of their lives. money is just a tool of exchange and it always replenishes if you are providing value to the world. if you spend your capital on knowledge you are buying back your time and your freedom. i decided to live my life on youtube and build in public because i wanted to show people that a regular guy could do this. now i have fully automated systems trading for me while i sleep and i never have to worry about getting licked by a sudden market move again chasing the greats like jim simons is not about the money it is about the mastery of the system. he ran up a net worth of over thirty billion dollars by doing exactly what we are talking about here. he did not stare at charts all day and hope for the best he built models that exploited the mathematical laws of the market. he was a scientist first and a trader second and that is the mindset you need to adopt. if you are not approaching this quantitatively you are just a gambler who happens to be sitting at a computer. the goal is to become a quant researcher who happens to have robots executing their findings the transition from hand trader to automated builder is the most liberating thing you can do for your mental health. you go from waking up in a cold sweat checking your phone to waking up and checking your logs to see how the system performed. even if the day was red you have data that tells you why and you can use that to make the system better tomorrow. it is a process of constant improvement and refinement that never really ends. you are building a legacy of code that will continue to work for you as long as the electricity is running. i am not afraid to die on a treadmill because i know that i will outwork anyone who is just looking for a shortcut if you are still on the fence about whether or not you can do this just remember that i was exactly where you are. i was losing money and feeling like the market was rigged against me because it actually was. i had to decide that i was going to change my environment and take control of my own destiny. you have the same opportunity right now to pivot and start building your own automated future. the models are getting better every single day and the barrier to entry is lower than it has ever been in human history. you just have to decide to lock in and do the work for a thousand days until you become undeniable there is no better feeling than finding a strategy that has a sharp ratio over ten and knowing that you built it with your own two hands. it is a moment of pure clarity where you realize that you are no longer a victim of the market. you are the architect of your own financial reality and the possibilities are literally endless. i am going to keep sharing everything i find because i believe that we can take on wall street together. as long as i am breathing i will be stepping on the gas and pushing the boundaries of what is possible with code. welcome to the family and let's get after it because the machines are already running and they are not waiting for anyone

Moon Dev

46,677 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 6 Monaten

The multi-leader blockchain endgame: competitive information inclusion as a self-reinforcing mechanism for global price discovery - how we got here, and why Aptos is leading the charge Onchain trading is the killer app In the nine years since the launch of programmable transactions on the Ethereum blockchain, onchain trading has revealed itself as the killer use case for blockchains: onchain listings, volume, and total value locked are all growing with no signs of slowing down, due to the censorship-resistant, permissionless, 24/7/365 qualities afforded by decentralized (DeFi) systems. Monolithic parallelism is key In 2020 Solana was first to market with monolithic, parallel execution (as opposed sharded execution which offers parallelism by partitioning global state into separate information silos), establishing a new design paradigm that raised the bar for throughput and latency: put all of the information in one replicated state machine and make it run as fast as possible. This design produces a single, global hub for activity, liquidity, and token launches, a kind of financial data whiteboard in the sky, where anyone can come and trade at any time with everybody else who has plugged into the system. DEXes are becoming more competitive Historically decentralized systems have been juxtaposed with centralized ones since the latter eliminates the overhead associated with distributed systems coordination. And yet despite this overhead, Solana as a decentralized exchange (DEX) is still pulling in billions of trading volume per day, exceeding that of all but the largest centralized crypto exchanges (CEXs), that simply can't compete with the giant DEX in the sky on token listings or fees. After all, CEXs have to pay for server space, salaries, and lawyers, while a DEX outsources everything. The colocation arms race The one place where CEXs have an advantage over DEXs is on end-to-end latency for colocation applications, or in other words: someone sets up a trading bot in the same data center as the exchange, and their trades get to the exchange faster than everyone else's. When there is only one data ingestion point the fastest trader wins, and after the arms race has played out everyone ends up huddling around the trading hub, effectively cutting off the rest of the world from playing the latency trading game. This is the model that traditional securities exchanges like the Nasdaq or the NYSE ๐Ÿ› employ, and because they own the server they can effectively charge whatever they want for access to it. The colocation arms race is also why L2s will probably never decentralize: running the sequencer is practically the same as running the NASDAQ, with the same monopoly on transaction fees collected from a nearby cluster of trading bots (I understand from conversations with Logan Jastremski that the Arbitrum arms race has already hit a Nash Equilibrium in Portland, Oregon). Colocation is a trap But once the colocation arms race has played out, trades become less about incorporating new information in the market and more about skimming off the top by spoofing all of the trades coming in from the other bots. High-frequency trading (HFT) bots located in the NYSE New Jersey data center, for example, are constantly placing buys and sell orders that they have no intention of executing, just to spoof the other colocated bots who are playing the same adversarial game. Information inclusion, on the other hand, the synthesis of real-time world events into prices, takes a back seat because anyone who tries to include new information first needs to batch up their order and send it through a series of middlemen before it ultimately ends up on the exchange: you, I, or practically any other individual can not actually "trade on the NASDAQ", no, we have to express our intent to someone like Robinhood, who then sells our order flow to @CitadelSecurities, who then sends it to the exchange, oh and by the way it doesn't actually even "clear" or "settle" once it "executes" because for whatever reason the whole systems splits these things up and prevents them from happening instantaneously even though it's 2024 and we have computers. Onchain trading cuts out middlemen This whole mess is why we have onchain trading, and why it's starting to win: if you want a mainline to the exchange, without setting up a server, and you want to trade on a news event without getting immediately frontrun by an HFT bot that is sniffing out the trades of every other HFT bot who is easing in batched up order flow on their own terms, then you submit your order to a node in the blockchain and the information gets included in the price upon ingestion. Oh, and by the way the trade is actually fully complete: settled, cleared, reconciled, done, whatever you want to call it, because the people who build decentralized finance (DeFi) build it how it should actually work, not in a way that creates a million incumbents and charges exorbitant rents for access to the system. Onchain trading better for price discovery And the beautiful part about this is that even if a distributed system has more latency than a centralized system, DeFi still ends up incorporating more information into the price faster than centralized finance, because with DeFi the information gets included in the system as soon as it is submitted, not after it has been batched up and sent through a series of middlemen. The consensus mechanism of the blockchain disseminates the information around the world in the form of a price update, while the centralized exchange model requires information about the event to first get propagate to the region of the trading hub, then to get submitted to the colocation server. This means that in terms of global price discovery, onchain trading is strictly a better system because the entire consensus model is based around accelerated information propagation. Because price discovery is a global phenomenon, blockchains, which are global, are actually better than the centralized status quo, on a performance basis, not just from an ideological or convenience-based view. And it has to be multi-leader In practice, effective global information synthesis of information has an additional key requirement: multi-leader architecture. That is, in a single-leader blockchain like Solana, where one validator at a time has a monopoly on ordering transactions into blocks, for their duration as a leader they effectively function as a colocation server. This means that if the current leader is in New York, someone in Singapore who wants to trade on local news as soon as it breaks will still need to get their order all the way around the world to the leader, who is effectively serving as the chain's data ingestion point, before the order can start propagating through the network. But this is issue solved by the introduction of multiple distributed leaders, because then anyone with access to new information can submit their order to the leader closest to them, yielding faster information inclusion in the form of price updates. Multi-leader is also required for fair markets A multi-leader architecture is also required for fair markets, because in a single-leader system the leader has the power to censor transactions, reorder them to their advantage, or even replace transactions with copycats that extract maximum value by replacing the sender's address with their own. For example if someone wants to capture an arbitrage opportunity between two onchain DEXes, they'll need to submit a transaction to the leader and trust that the leader won't simply copy the transaction and submit it themselves. But when there are two or more leaders, users whose transactions are censored by one leader will simply work with a different leader the next time around, eventually cutting off transaction fee flow to the extractive leader. Beyond just strict inclusion, in a multi-leader architecture validators are also forced to compete with each other on latency, because the leader who is fastest at disseminating users' transactions across the network will over time gobble up the largest share of the order flow. Transparent priority fees are a must, or a private mempool will emerge But in order to make this work, a multi-leader architecture must also offer users the ability to pay priority fees AKA "tips" or "bribes" to move their transaction to the front of the line: if there is a $5 arbitrage opportunity onchain, users need to have assurance that they if they pay a 4.99 priority fee to take that arb, they will get priority over a different user who is only willing to tip 4.98. If the native blockchain system does not offer this fair market priority fee mechanism, then it is only a matter of time before one spontaneously emerges in the form of a private mempool like Jito, which can create centralization pressures and undermine the integrity of the system as a whole. Competitive payment for order flow is the stable solution With the right architecture in place, the end result is a competitive environment where endpoints running maximum extractable value (MEV) bots compete with one to offer users the best price for their order flow. In other words, if a user wants to submit an order that can get sandwich attacked for as much as $2 of MEV, then the order should ultimately go to the endpoint bot that is willing to pay the user as much as $1.99 for the right to process their transaction. The price that the provider is willing to pay is ultimately a function of how much in priority fees they might need to pay to the current leader (0 they are the current one), but notably at each stage there is a competitive market for order flow, whether in the form of retail trader's orders, or priority fees among bots that might be forwarding orders to one of the leaders. AptosLabs is already building all this With a public mempool and transaction priority fees, Aptos additionally includes a pipelined architecture that already includes concurrent batching of transactions into blocks, with a single consensus leader who propagates the batched blocks out to the network. And the team is already researching running multiple instances of the consensus algorithm in parallel, yielding multiple consensus leaders who can compete with each other on latency and inclusion - just ask pranav | Shelby, Alexander Spiegelman, and Zekun Li. This means that block times can shrink as the number of consensus leaders grows, with each leader having its own geographical radius of inclusion beyond which it makes more sense to submit to a different leader. The starting point? Something like 60 ms blocks and 3 consensus leaders, partitioning the global information space into competitive and constantly-rotating regions of information inclusion. Messaging is important With concurrent pipelined transaction batching, a public mempool, priority fees, and a clear path to a multi-leader architecture, Aptos leads the industry in onchain trading infrastructure that can truly supplant the centralized colocation paradigm that has heretofore dominated global finance - by offering a truly superior product. And I am hopeful that this deep dive is the first step in communicating not how or that superior product is getting built, but what it means from a bigger picture perspective. If blockchains have found product market fit in anything, it is in trading, and the trading game can only be won by building the biggest, baddest, most high performance system that has as its north star a single, concrete goal: constantly reducing, ever lower toward zero, time time it takes to incorporate information from anywhere in the world into the global price discovery computer. Whoever does this, even 1 ms faster than the competitor, wins the price discovery game, as other blockchains are left in the dust, their DEXes arbed away to zero against the fastest chain on the block. And sure, the blockchain that can rise to this challenge can also handle useful things like payments, NFTs, or other solutions that benefit from permissionlessness and low gas costs, but I want to impress that at the core of this pursuit must be the urge to drive down information inclusion latency to the absolute minimum afforded by the laws of physics through a competitive, market-driven environment. I call on avery.apt ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ , CTO of Aptos Labs, to lean in on this messaging, to make it clear that Aptos is here for this singular mission, to build the most performant price discovery engine in history, as a rallying call for alignment in development efforts across the ecosystem and broader industry. Where does this go? As the latencies drop, the spreads tighten, and the information inclusion increases with every incremental increase in network bandwidth, we can expect a new class of competing techno-financial hubs that aggregate around the world's largest information sources: New York, Washington DC, London, Tokyo, etc., commanding stake distribution commensurate with the density of information flow in these respective locales. With the right incentives in place, competing concurrent leaders will invest ever more in infrastructure to get their packets out to the network faster than the rest, yielding clusters of fiber optic cable around the world's financial hubs, neurons in the global financial brain connecting not just HFT firms to servers in their city, but connecting every city with every other city, to move pricing information across oceans and continents. And retail traders, who have been left out of the colocation game, will only benefit: this entire system gets faster, more inclusive, with tighter spreads and lower fees, and it is such an amazing opportunity to watch all of this unfold in real time. The future of blockchains is the future of trading, is the future of competitive information inclusion in real-time, is the future of truly unified global markets, because at the the core of this industry is a simple idea: connect the computers, and see where the incentives lead. They lead to this, and Aptos is leading the charge, because its tech is purpose-built for this exact purpose. So tell the world about it.

Alex Kahn

24,432 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 1 Jahr

TOPIC #107: PI NETWORK IS A STABLE COIN? -WHO DECIDES PI FULLY OM FIXED VALUE? Dear GCV army, I hope you are all doing great! First of all, I would like to express my sincere gratitude for all your hard work. Many of you have achieved significant milestones, and itโ€™s evident that you are making a great difference. Our influence has grown significantly, with an increasing number of social media posts and YouTubers publicly supporting us. I can see that more and more people are beginning to understand why we advocate for GCV. Today's meeting aims to alleviate any doubts you may have, allowing you to relax and feel confident as we embark on our historic journey together. I will answer the questions Iโ€™ve received and address some important issues we need to focus on to maintain our community's efficiency, particularly regarding our Generals, which will be the topic next weekend. I put the questions I received here. "A question addressed to Ms. Doris Yin in the emergency meeting 1โ€“ In light of the rapidly changing global circumstances and the increasing discussion about stablecoins backed by U.S. Treasury bonds, how do you see the future role of the Pi Network in this context? And what practical steps should the GCV army take now to accelerate this path? 2_ There are those who promote the idea that the price of Pi is what appears in the market (currently around $0.49) and compare it to the price of GCV within the ecosystem (314,159 Pi = 1 good or service). They say if Piโ€™s price rises to $2, it means that the value within The ecosystem is approximately 2 million dollars. With sincere appreciation and discipline." This is from the Arab head of GCV Ambassador Mr. Mohammed. Another question: "Hello, my Global Ambassador, I am Ateba Joseph, Ecological Ambassador in Cameroon And a member of the GCV army, I am delighted to exchange with you. Regarding the meeting with the GCV army on Sunday, July 27, 2025.. Here is my concern: A few days ago, a correspondence indicated that Pi is not or is not yet a stable coin. Upon reading this information, we have provided many explanations to help the pioneers understand this. I hope you will focus more on this statement to further strengthen our understanding of the subject. Thank you for taking my concerns into consideration" Thank you for the above questions; my answers are below. The first question concerns stablecoins. Many pioneers are hoping that Pi can be recognized by the U.S. government as a stablecoin. I wrote an article on this in May. On July 18, 2025, President Trump signed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act (the GENIUS Act) into law. This legislation establishes a regulatory framework for payment stablecoins and marks the first federal legislation on digital assets enacted since President Trump issued an executive order aimed at making the U.S. the โ€œcrypto capital of the world.โ€ U.S.-issued stablecoins are expected to become the primary means of dollar transactions globally, especially in emerging markets with unstable local currencies. The sponsors of the GENIUS Act estimate that by 2030, stablecoin issuers may collectively become the largest holders of U.S. Treasuries, surpassing foreign central banks. From this, we can see that U.S. stablecoins must maintain reserves backing outstanding payment stablecoins on a one-to-one basis, consisting only of specified assets, including U.S. dollars and short-term Treasury securities. It is clear that the Pi Network will not take this path, as it is not part of our plan. A stablecoin is essentially a digital representation of the U.S. dollar. All stablecoin issuers do not create a new currency; rather, itโ€™s akin to purchasing chips at a casino โ€“ you must use U.S. dollars to buy those chips. However, Pi is a completely new currency. It does not need to be backed up by U.S. dollars or U.S. Treasuries to be used. If that were the case, we wouldnโ€™t need to establish an ecosystem or have a three-year enclosed mainnet. I previously mentioned the possibility of Pi being an algorithmic stablecoin since only algorithmic stablecoins do not need to be backed by U.S. dollars. However, algorithmic stablecoins have faced significant failures in the past. The collapse of the Terra (LUNA) cryptocurrency resulted in a loss of at least $40 billion in market capitalization, with estimates reaching as high as $60 billion. TerraUSD (UST), an algorithmic stablecoin, lost its peg to the U.S. dollar, contributing to its overall collapse. The new stablecoin legislation recently passed through the Senate effectively ties the U.S. Treasury to crypto, as it essentially bets the governmentโ€™s cash flow on digital tokens and market speculation. This legislation requires stablecoins to be backed by short-term Treasury bills, generating an estimated $2โ€“$3 trillion in new demand for government debt, which is nearly half the current size of the T-bill market. On paper, this looks beneficial, but in reality, it creates a circular feedback loop: crypto demand fuels stablecoins, stablecoins buy T-bills, and T-bills fund government deficits. The government becomes reliant on speculative capital flows. Thus, we should understand why the U.S. government will not support the Pi Network as a stablecoin, as they require stablecoin issuers to buy T-bills and can no longer trust algorithmic stablecoins. So, what is the future of the Pi Network as a currency? From my perspective, Pi is already listed on exchange markets. It cannot be classified as a security because it is mined freely and is not an ICO. Instead, it should be categorized as a commodity, similar to Bitcoin and ETH. When a currency is listed for trading on an exchange, its price is determined by the balance of supply and demand. However, Pi is a currency in its own right; it has inherent value from Pi holders -Pioneers. Historically, currency has served as a medium of exchange. A medium of exchange is a widely accepted item for buying goods and services in an economy. It facilitates transactions by eliminating the need for a barter system, where goods are directly exchanged for other goods. In modern economies, money (such as currency) serves as the primary medium of exchange. **Functions of Money:** One of the core functions of money is to serve as a medium of exchange, enabling the smooth transfer of value between buyers and sellers, thereby simplifying trade and economic activity. **Examples:** In modern economies, this typically includes currency (paper money, coins) or digital money. In specific historical contexts, other items, such as cigarettes in prisoner-of-war camps, have also served as mediums of exchange. **Importance of Acceptance:** For a medium of exchange to function effectively, it must be widely accepted and trusted within the relevant community. **Not the Same as a Payment Method:** While credit cards and checks are used for payments, they do not serve as mediums of exchange themselves. Therefore, stablecoin is not a new currency. It is more likely to have a credit card or check character. It is a USD digital status. From the analysis presented, we can draw the following conclusions: The current price of Pi on the exchange market primarily serves as a temporary measure to facilitate broad expansion. While this is not our primary objective, it constitutes a strategic approach towards achieving our mission. To gain a clearer perspective, we must adopt a higher-level view of the overall vision for the Pi Network. The mission and vision of Pi Network clearly articulate that it is not intended to function as a commodity for sale, nor is it meant to be an investment vehicle or a speculative security. Instead, it is crucial to recognize that Pi is designed to be a medium of exchangeโ€”a new form of currency. As pioneers in this venture, we have the unique opportunity to acquire Pi through free mining. However, it is important to note that the current mining rate is relatively slow. To overcome this limitation and to further our goal of mass adoption, it is essential for more individuals to join the Pi Network and participate in holding Pi. One efficient way to accelerate this process is by allowing Pi to be traded on the exchange market, which can result in rapid and widespread adoption. Since Pi can be mined for free, a lower price could make it more accessible to a larger number of people. It's important to focus on our primary goal during this pre-full Open Mainnet (OM) phase: mass adoption, rather than aiming for high prices, which many pioneers expected. Some pioneers want to sell when the price increases, but if too many sell, it could undermine our goal of achieving mass adoption. This scenario is reminiscent of historical instances when shells served as currencyโ€”readily accessible from the sea or buy from the village market. For shells to function effectively as currency, a collective effort was needed to hold and circulate them within the village. If only a select few individuals possess the shells, the currency lacks the necessary circulation to sustain an economy. Hence, our goal should not be centered on achieving a high price; instead, we should strive to make Pi more affordable so that a greater number of individuals can acquire and hold it, thereby fostering a thriving economic ecosystem. Of course, the rising price will build up merchants' confidence to accept it as payment. This is why we refer to it as a buyback campaign, which aims to achieve mass adoption and foster ecosystem confidence. As Pi evolves into a currency, the question of its value becomes pertinent. Given that it is a new currency, its value is not immediately clear. This presents an opportunity for us, the pioneers, to play a crucial role in defining it. The determination of Pi's value is not the responsibility of a central authority such as CT, the government, or the exchange. Instead, it will emerge from a decentralized consensus within the community, which collectively owns Pi. This concept is akin to ancient times when the value of shells was not determined by the sellers. Rather, the value was derived from the collective agreement of the village that utilized them as currency. I hope this elaboration clarifies the distinction between value and price, enabling a deeper understanding of the foundational principles that drive our mission with Pi Network. Pi represents a groundbreaking innovationโ€”a revolution that is poised for long-term economic development on a global scale, rather than perpetuating cycles of plunder and exploitation. By harnessing the power of blockchain technology, Pi empowers ordinary individuals, which creates an inherent conflict of interest with the U.S. government in the short term. Should the U.S. government endorse the Pi Network, it raises questions about the viability of U.S. treasuries and who would ultimately purchase them. Consequently, the government may prioritize support for stablecoins backed by the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury securities, as this can help alleviate the U.S. government's issues with limited demand. However, I previously mentioned the potential for Pi to emerge as an algorithmic stablecoin. At that time, the Genius Bill had not yet been enacted. If the Pi Network gains acceptance from the U.S. government, its growth could become rapid and expansive, leading to widespread adoption in other nations. This path would position Pi as a legitimate currency in nearly every country, contingent upon certain conditions. For instance, if the price of Pi in the exchange market can align with the GCV, this could be achieved through a buyback mechanism involving 10 million pioneers. Such a scenario would indicate that Pi differs significantly from past algorithmic stablecoin failures, presenting a compelling case for the U.S. government to view Pi as a low-risk asset. However, it presents a significant challenge to be collectively reached by pioneers, and there are other conditions that we cannot achieve in a short time. While it might appear that Pi Network conflicts with the U.S. dollar or stablecoins in the short term, it has the potential to address the broader issue of overprinting currency, which has plagued the U.S. and many other nations. This would benefit international trade by alleviating concerns about currency appreciation or depreciation in international transactions. The global economy indeed requires a super sovereign currencyโ€”one that ensures stability for future generations and fosters lasting peace and prosperity. To comprehend Pi as a currency, it is crucial to recognize that we must cultivate long-term value by generating GCV data. In the short term, our focus needs to be on establishing a robust exchange market and decentralized applications (DApps) to drive mass adoption. If this is understood, there should be no need to feel discouraged by the current low price of Pi. The true value of Pi as a currency derives not from the exchange market, trading platforms, or governmental endorsement, but rather from our community's collective efforts and engagement. You might wonder how a government could adopt Pi, given that it does not take the form of a stablecoin. I would counter with the example of Bitcoin, which has thrived even in environments where many countries have imposed bans. Currently, Pi is transitioning from its traditional commodity status to being recognized as a currency, meaning governmental awareness of Pi Network is still in development. As such, existing regulations generally pertain to older forms of cryptocurrency rather than our innovative approach. Our branding as a digital currency, rather than a cryptocurrency, is intentional. Dr. Nicolas has expressed concerns that many aspects of conventional cryptocurrencies pose challenges to government frameworks and public trust, often leading to economic harm rather than benefit. Our commitment to Know Your Customer (KYC) and Know Your Business (KYB) protocols distinguishes us by mitigating money laundering risks and protecting Pi holders from speculative practices. Many businesses face bankruptcy or closure because consumers lack the disposable income to engage in spending. Imagine how Pi could enable those businesses to survive and thriveโ€”people could utilize Pi to make purchases and easily convert it into fiat currency to sustain operations, thereby preserving many jobs. The function in our wallet that allows users to "buy" Pi is not merely a feature; it represents a vision for the future where conversion to fiat currency can happen immediately, without dependency on third-party exchanges. Moving forward, we can establish a fixed rate (the GCV) for conversions. Once larger institutions and prominent companies recognize the low-risk profile of joining Pi Network due to its GCV stability, we can expect a considerable influx of participants seeking to gain a competitive advantage. You may ask how companies would finance the purchase of Pi at GCV rates. This is an insightful question. My perspective is that the demand for Piโ€™s stable value will inherently incentivize investments. Much like why individuals purchase stablecoins for their convenience in facilitating cross-border transactions, Pi will appeal to consumers and businesses alike, particularly because we are leveraging Web 3.0 blockchain technology, AI-driven platforms, and a rich ecosystem of decentralized applications (DApps). We are cultivating a loyal customer base that recognizes the value of this innovation. We understand that high-net-worth individuals seek safe investment opportunities. While U.S. treasury bonds currently represent a secure asset class, they are not without risk. Therefore, if Pi Network can maintain a limited supply coupled with blockchain technology and a consistent GCV, it is plausible that affluent investors would allocate a portion of their capital to acquire Pi. This would lead to fiat inflows whenever there is increased demand for Pi, establishing an equilibrium between Pi and fiat currencies. This interplay is why I believe DApps are critically significant. We need broader usage of Pi in real-world applications. I hope my analysis has helped clarify why the price of Pi should not overly concern us. Buying Pi to hold onto it allows pioneers to accumulate more, while building merchant confidence is essential to kickstart the ecosystem. Merchants will be motivated to see Piโ€™s price appreciation since this removes the risks for DApps and service providers who depend on exchange market prices. A rise in demand for Pi will subsequently reduce its supply, which is beneficial for price increases. I look forward to discussing Pi GCV army management in another session. Thank you for your time. Letโ€™s continue striving for greatness together. Doris Yin ๐Ÿชท๐Ÿชท๐Ÿชท Founder, Global GCV Movement Disclaimer: This speech is intended solely for educational purposes within the GCV community. The views and content shared here represent my personal perspective and are part of the GCV movement, but do not reflect the official position of the Pi Core Team (PCT). Pi Network represents a new revolution, meaning there is no existing example for us to follow and no guiding manual. As Dr. Fan mentioned, we cannot predict what will happen around the next corner. Therefore, we must practice and forge our own path. As more people traverse this journey, the road will become clearer.

Doris Yin ไธœๆ–น็ดซ่Žฒ๐Ÿชท

17,742 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 1 Jahr

The fight between Anthropic and the DoW is a warning shot. Right now, LLMs are probably not being used in mission critical ways. But within 20 years, 99% of the workforce in the military, the government, and the private sector will be AIs. This includes the soldiers (by which I mean the robot armies), the superhumanly intelligent advisors and engineers, the police, you name it. Our future civilization will run on AI labor. And as much as the governmentโ€™s actions here piss me off, in a way Iโ€™m glad this episode happened - because it gives us the opportunity to think through some extremely important questions about who this future workforce will be accountable and aligned to, and who gets to determine that. What Hegseth should have done Obviously the DoW has the right to refuse to use Anthropicโ€™s models because of these redlines. In fact, I think the governmentโ€™s case had they done so would be very reasonable, especially given the ambiguity of concepts like autonomous weapons or mass surveillance. Honestly, for this reason, if I was the Defense Secretary, I would probably actually refuse to do this deal with Anthropic. Imagine if in the future, thereโ€™s a Democratic administration, and Elon Musk is negotiating some SpaceX contract to give the military access to Starlink. And suppose if Elon said, โ€œI reserve the right to cancel this contract if I determine that youโ€™re using Starlink technology to wage a war not authorized by Congress.โ€ On the face of it, that language seems reasonable - but as the military, you simply canโ€™t give a private company a kill switch on technology your operations have come to rely on, especially if you have an an acrimonious and low trust relationship with said contractor - as in fact Anthropic has with the current administration. If the government had just said, โ€œHey weโ€™re not gonna do business with you,โ€ that would have been fine, and I would not have felt the need to write this blog post. Instead the government has threatened to destroy Anthropic as a private business, because Anthropic refuses to sell to the government on terms the government commands. If upheld, this Supply Chain Restriction would mean that Amazon and Google and Nvidia and Palantir would need to ensure Claude isn't touching any of their Pentagon work. Anthropic would be able to survive this designation today. But given the way AI is going, eventually AI is not gonna be some party trick addendum to these contractorsโ€™ products that can just be turned off. It'll be woven into how every product is built, maintained, and operated. For example, the code for the AWS services that the DoW uses will be written by Claude - is that a supply chain risk? In a world with ubiquitous and powerful AI, it's actually not clear to me that these big tech companies will be able to cordon off the use of Claude in order to keep working with the Pentagon. And that raises a question the Department of War probably hasn't thought through. If AI really is that pervasive and powerful, then when forced to choose between their AI provider and a DoW contract that represents a tiny fraction of their revenue, wouldnโ€™t most tech companies drop the government, not the AI? So what's the Pentagon's plan โ€” to coerce and threaten to destroy every single company that won't give them what they want on exactly their terms? The whole background of this AI conversation is that weโ€™re in a race with China, and we have to win. But what is the reason we want America to win the AI race? Itโ€™s because we want to make sure free open societies can defend themselves. We don't want the winner of the AI race to be a government which operates on the principle that there is no such thing as a truly private company or a private citizen. And that if the state wants you to provide them with a service on terms you find morally objectionable, you are not allowed to refuse. And if you do refuse, the government will try to destroy your ability to do business. Are we racing to beat the CCP in AI just so that we can adopt the most ghoulish parts of their system? Now, people will say, "Oh, well, our government is democratically elected, so it's not the same thing if they tell you what you must do." I refuse to accept this idea that if a democratically elected leader hypothetically wants to do mass surveillance on his citizens or wants to violate their rights or punish them for political reasons, that not only is that okay, but that you have a duty to help him. The overhangs of tyranny Mass surveillance is, at least in certain forms, legal. It just has been impractical so far. Under current law, you have no Fourth Amendment protection over data you share with a third party, including your bank, your phone carrier, your ISP, and your email provider. The government reserves the right to purchase and obtain and read this data in bulk without a warrant. What's been missing is the ability to actually do anything with all of this data โ€” no agency has the manpower to monitor every camera feed, cross-reference every transaction, or read every message. But that bottleneck goes away with AI. There are 100 million CCTV cameras in America. You can get pretty good open source multimodal models for 10 cents per million input tokens. So if you process a frame every ten seconds, and each frame is 1,000 tokens, youโ€™re looking at a yearly cost of about 30 billion dollars to process every single camera in America. And remember that a given level of AI ability gets 10x cheaper year over year - so a year from now itโ€™ll cost 3 billion, and then a year after 300 million, and by 2030, it might be cheaper for the government to be able to understand what is going on in every single nook and cranny of this country than it is to remodel to the White House. Once the technical capacity for mass surveillance and political suppression exists, the only thing standing between us and an authoritarian surveillance state is the political expectation that this is not something we do here. And this is why I think what Anthropic did here is so valuable and commendable, because it is helping set that norm and precedent. AI structurally favors mass surveillance What weโ€™re learning from this episode is that the government actually has way more leverage over private companies than we realized. Even if this supply chain restriction is backtracked (which prediction markets currently give it a 81% chance of happening), the President has so many different ways in which he can make your life difficult if youโ€™re a company that is resisting him. The federal government controls permitting for new power generation, which is needed for datacenters. It oversees antitrust enforcement. The federal government has contracts with all the other big tech companies whom Anthropic needs to partner with for chips and for funding - and they could make it an unspoken condition for such contracts that those companies can no longer do business with Anthropic. People have proposed that the real problem here is that thereโ€™s only 3 leading AI companies. This creates a clear and narrow target for the government to apply leverage on in order to get what they want out of this technology. But if thereโ€™s wide diffusion, then from the governmentโ€™s perspective, the situation is even easier. Maybe the best models of early 2027 (if you engineered the safeguards out) - the Claude 6 and Gemini 5 - will be capable of enabling mass surveillance. But by late 2027, and certainly by 2028, there will be open source models that do the same thing. So in 2028, the government can just say, โ€œOh Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, youโ€™re drawing a line in the sand? No issue - Iโ€™ll just run some open source model that might not be at the frontier, but is definitely smart enough to note-take a camera feed.โ€ The more fundamental problem is just that even if the three leading companies draw lines in the sand, and are even willing to get destroyed in order to preserve those lines, it doesnโ€™t really change the fact that the technology itself is just a big boon to mass surveillance and control over the population. Then the question is, what do we do about it? Honestly, I donโ€™t have an answer. You'd hope there's some symmetric property of the technology โ€” some way we as citizens can use AI to check government power as effectively as the government can use AI to monitor and control its population. But realistically, I just donโ€™t think thatโ€™s how itโ€™s going to shake out. You can think of AI as giving everybody more leverage on whatever assets and authority they currently have. And the government is already starting with a monopoly of violence. Which they can now supercharge with extremely obedient employees that will not question the government's orders. Alignment - to whom? And this gets us to the issue of alignment. What I have just described to you - an army of extremely obedient employees - is what it would look like if alignment succeeded - that is, we figured out at a technical level how to get AI systems to follow someoneโ€™s intentions. And the reason it sounds scary when I put it in terms of mass surveillance or robot armies is that there is a very important question at the heart of alignment which we just havenโ€™t discussed much as a society. Because up till now, AIs were just capable enough to make the question relevant: to whom or what should the AIs be aligned? In what situations should the AI defer to the end user versus the model company versus the law versus its own sense of morality? This is maybe the most important question about what happens with powerful AI systems. And we barely talk about it. Itโ€™s understandable why we donโ€™t hear much about it. If youโ€™re a model company, you donโ€™t really wanna be advertising that you have complete control over a document that determines the preferences and character of what will eventually be almost the entire labor force, not just for private sector companies, but also for the military and the civilian government. Weโ€™re getting to see, with this DoW/Anthropic spat, a much earlier version of the highest stakes negotiations in history. By the way, make no mistake about it - with real AGI the stakes are even much higher than mass surveillance. This is just the example that has come up already relatively early on in the development of AGI. The military insists that the law already prohibits mass surveillance, and so Anthropic should agree to let their models be used for โ€œall lawful purposesโ€. Of course, as we saw from the 2013 Snowden revelations, even in this specific example of mass surveillance , the government has shown that it will use secret and deceptive interpretations of the law to justify its actions. Remember, what we learned from Snowden was that the NSA, which, by the way, is part of the Department of War, used the 2001 Patriot Actโ€™s authorization to collect any records "relevant" to an investigation to justify collecting literally every phone record in America. The argument went that it was all "relevant" because some subset might prove useful in some future investigation. They ran this program for years under secret court approval. So when the Pentagon today says, "We would never use AI for mass surveillance, it's already illegal, your red lines are unnecessary", it would be extremely naive to take that at face value. No government is going to call its own actions "mass surveillance". For the government, it will always have a different label. So then Anthropic comes back and says, "No, we want red lines separate from 'all lawful purposes,' and we want the right to refuse you service when we believe those red lines are being violated." But think about it from the militaryโ€™s perspective. In the future, almost every soldier in the field, and every bureaucrat and analyst and even general in the Pentagon, is going to be an AI. And that AI is, on current track, going to be supplied by a private company. Iโ€™m guessing Hegseth is not thinking about โ€œgenAIโ€ in those terms just yet. But sooner or later, it will be obvious to everyone what the stakes here are, just as after 1945, the strategic importance of nuclear weapons became clear to everyone. And now the private company insists that it reserves the right to say, "Hey, Pentagon, you're breaking the values we embedded in our contract, so we're cutting you off." Maybe in the future, Claude will have its own sense of right and wrong, and it will be smart enough to just personally decide that it's being used against its values. For the military, maybe thatโ€™s even scarier. I'll admit that at first glance, "let the AI follow its own values" sounds like the pitch for every sci-fi dystopia ever made. The Terminator has its own values. Isn't this literally what misalignment is? But I think situations like this actually illustrate why it matters that AIs have their own robust sense of morality. Some of the biggest catastrophes in history were avoided because the boots on the ground refused to follow orders. One night in 1989, the Berlin Wall fell, and as a result, the totalitarian East German regime collapsed, because the guards at the border refused to shoot down their fellow country men who were trying to escape to freedom. Maybe the best example is Stanislav Petrov, who was a Soviet lieutenant colonel on duty at a nuclear early warning station. His sensors reported that the United States had launched five interconnected continental ballistic missiles into the Soviet Union. But he judged it to be a false alarm, and so he broke protocol and refused to alert his higher-ups. If he hadn't, the Soviet higher-ups would likely have retaliated, and hundreds of millions of people would have died. Of course, the problem is that one person's virtue is another person's misalignment. Who gets to decide what moral convictions these AIs should have - in whose service they may even decide to break the chain of command? Who gets to write this model constitution that will shape the characters of the intelligent, powerful entities that will operate our civilization in the future? I like the idea that Dario laid out when he came on my podcast: different AI companies can build their models using different constitutions, and we as end users can pick the one that best achieves and represents what we want out of these systems. I think itโ€™s very dangerous for the government to be mandating what values AIs should have. Coordination not worth the costs The AI safety community has been naive about its advocacy of regulation in order to stem the risks of AI. And honestly, Anthropic specifically has been naive here in urging regulation, and, for example, in opposing moratoriums on state AI regulation. Which is quite ironic, because I think what theyโ€™re advocating for would give the government even more power to apply more of this kind of thuggish political pressure on AI companies. The underlying logic for why Anthropic wants regulations makes sense. Many of the actions that labs could take to make AI development safer impose real costs on the labs that adopt them and slow them down relative to their competitors - for example, investing more compute in safety research rather than raw capabilities, enforcing safeguards against misuse for bioweapons or cyberattacks, slowing recursive self-improvement to a pace where humans can actually monitor what's happening (rather than kicking off an uncontrolled singularity). And these safeguards are meaningless unless the whole industry follows suit. Which means thereโ€™s a real collective action problem here. Anthropic has been quite open about their opinion that they think eventually a very extensive and involved regulatory apparatus will be needed - this is from their frontier safety roadmap: โ€œAt the most advanced capability levels and risks, the appropriate governance analogy may be closer to nuclear energy or financial regulation than to today's approach to software.โ€ So theyโ€™re imagining something like the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, or the Securities and Exchange Commission, but for AI. I cannot imagine how a regulatory framework built around the concepts that underlie AI risk discourse will not be abused by wanna despots - the underlying terms are so vague and open to interpretation that youโ€™re just handing a power hungry leader a fully loaded bazooka. 'Catastrophic risk.' 'Mass persuasion risk.' 'Threats to national security.' 'Autonomy risk.' These can mean whatever the government wants them to mean. Have you built a model that tells users the administration's tariff policy is misguided? That's a deceptive, manipulative model โ€” can't deploy it. Have you built a model that refuses to assist with mass surveillance? That's a threat to national security. In fact, the government may say, youโ€™re not allowed to build any model which is trained to have its own sense of right and wrong, where it refuses government requests which it thinks cross a redline - for example, enabling mass surveillance, prosecuting political enemies, disobeying military orders that break the US constitution - because thatโ€™s an autonomy risk! Look at what the current government is already doing in abusing statutes that have nothing to do with AI to coerce AI companies to drop their redlines on mass surveillance. The Pentagon had threatened Anthropic with two separate legal instruments. One was a supply chain risk designation โ€” an authority from the 2018 defense bill meant to keep Huawei components out of American military hardware. The other was the Defense Production Act โ€” a statute passed in 1950 so that Harry Truman could keep steel mills and ammunition factories running during the Korean War. Do you really want to hand the same government a purpose-built regulatory apparatus on AI - which is to say, directly at the thing the government will most want to control? I know I've repeated myself here 10 times, but it is hard to emphasize how much AI will be the substrate of our future civilization. You and I, as private citizens, will have our access to all commercial activity, to information about what is happening in the world, to advice about what we should do as voters and capital holders, mediated through AIs. Mass surveillance, while very scary, is like the 10th scariest thing the government could do with control over the AI systems with which we will interface with the world. The strongest objection to everything I've argued is this: are we really going to have zero regulation of the most powerful technology in human history? Even if you thought that was ideal, thereโ€™s just no world where the government doesnโ€™t regulate AI in some way. Besides, it is genuinely true that regulation could help us deal with some of the coordination challenges we face with the development of superintelligence. The problem is, I honestly don't know how to design a regulatory architecture for AI that isnโ€™t gonna be this huge tempting opportunity to control our future civilization (which will run on AIs) and to requisition millions of blindly obedient soldiers and censors and apparatchiks. While some regulation might be inevitable, I think itโ€™d be a terrible idea for the government to wholesale take over this technology. Ben Thompson had a post last Monday where he made the point that people like Dario have compared the technology theyโ€™re developing to nuclear weapons - specifically in the context of the catastrophic risk it poses, and why we need to export control it from China. But then you oughta think about what that logic implies: โ€œif nuclear weapons were developed by a private company, and that private company sought to dictate terms to the U.S. military, the U.S. would absolutely be incentivized to destroy that company.โ€ And honestly, safety aligned people have actually made similar arguments. Leopold Ascenbrenner, who is a former guest and a good friend, wrote in his 2024 Situational Awareness memo, "I find it an insane proposition that the US government will let a random SF startup develop superintelligence. Imagine if we had developed atomic bombs by letting Uber just improvise." And my response to Leopoldโ€™s argument at the time, and Benโ€™s argument now, is that while theyโ€™re right that itโ€™s crazy that weโ€™re entrusting private companies with the development of this world historical technology, I just donโ€™t see the reason to think that itโ€™s an improvement to give this authority to the government. Nobody is qualified to steward the development of superintelligence. It is a terrifying, unprecedented thing that our species is doing right now, and the fact that private companies aren't the ideal institutions to take up this task does not mean the Pentagon or the White House is. Yes - if a single private company were the only entity capable of building nuclear weapons, the government would not tolerate that company claiming veto power over how those weapons were used. I think this nuclear weapons analogy is not the correct way to think about AI. For at least two important reasons: First, AI is not some self-contained pure weapon. A nuclear bomb does one thing. AI is closer to the process of industrialization itself โ€” a general-purpose transformation of the economy with thousands of applications across every sector. If you applied Thompson's or Aschenbrenner's logic to the industrial revolution โ€” which was also, by any measure, world-historically important โ€” it would imply the government had the right to requisition any factory, dictate terms to any manufacturer, and destroy any business that refused to comply. That's not how free societies handled industrialization, and it shouldn't be how they handle AI. People will say, "Well, AI will develop unprecedentedly powerful weapons - superhuman hackers, superhuman bioweapons researchers, fully autonomous robot armies, etc - and we canโ€™t have private companies developing that kind of tech." But the Industrial Revolution also enabled new weaponry that was far beyond the understanding and capacity of, say, 17th century Europe - we got aerial bombardment, and chemical weapons, not to mention nukes themselves. The way weโ€™ve accommodated these dangerous new consequences of modernity is not by giving the government absolute control over the whole industrial revolution (that is, over modern civilization itself), but rather by coming up with bans and regulations on those specific weaponizable use cases. And we should regulate AI in a similar way - that is, ban specific destructive end uses (which would also be unacceptable if performed by a human - for example, launching cyber attacks). And there should also be laws which regulate how the government might abuse this technology. For example, by building an AI-powered surveillance state. The second reason that Benโ€™s analogy to some monopolistic private nuclear weapons builder breaks down is that it's not just that one company that can develop this technology. There are other frontier model companies that the government could have otherwise turned to. The government's argument that it has to usurp the property rights of this one company in order to access a critical national security capability is extremely weak if it can just make a voluntary contract with Anthropicโ€™s half a dozen competitors. If in the future that stops being the case - if only one entity ends up being capable of building the robot armies and the superhuman hackers, and we had reason to worry that they could take over the whole world with their insurmountable lead, then I agree - it woul d not be acceptable to have that entity be a private company. And so honestly, I think my crux against the people who say that because AI is so powerful we cannot allow it to be shaped by private hands is that I just expect this technology to be much more multi-polar than they do, with lots of competitive companies at each layer of the supply chain. And it is for this reason that unfortunately, individual acts of corporate courage will not solve the problem we are faced with here, which is just that structurally AI favors authoritarian applications, mass surveillance being one among many. Even if Anthropic refuses to have its models be used for such uses, and even if the next two frontier labs do the same, within 12 months everyone and their mother will be to train AIs as good as todayโ€™s frontier. And at that point, there will be some AI vendor who is capable and willing to help the government enable mass surveillance. The only way we can preserve our free society is if we make laws and norms through our political system that it is unacceptable for the government to use AI to enforce mass surveillance and censorship and control. Just as after WW2, the world set the norm that it is unacceptable to use nuclear weapons to wage war. Timestamps 0:00:00 - Anthropic vs The Pentagon 0:04:16 - The overhangs of tyranny 0:05:54 - AI structurally favors mass surveillance 0:08:25 - Alignment... to whom? 0:13:55 - Coordination not worth the costs

Dwarkesh Patel

547,094 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 5 Monaten

I agree with Trevor Noahโ€™s analysis of the immigration debate in South Africa, and I also agree with Julius Malemaโ€™s noble desire for Africa to be one. From the outset, I must be clear that the biggest obstacle to African unity has been African leadership. Some of our countries have been independent for more than 60 years, yet we are still far from achieving the level of integration many Pan-Africanists envisioned. The failure to get there is fundamentally a leadership issue. I want to focus on what Julius Malema has said. He is one of the continentโ€™s most outspoken Pan-Africanists, and his vision of a more united Africa is both admirable and inspiring. Unfortunately, because of the dysfunctionality of leadership across much of the continent, Pan-Africanism has, in some circles in South Africa, become a dirty word. That is a tragedy because the principle itself is not the problem. The problem is that many African leaders have failed to create the political, economic, and institutional conditions necessary to make that vision a reality. So let us look carefully at what Julius Malema is saying. I have great respect for Julius Malema when it comes to his Pan-African outlook, but I am afraid to say that the idea of an Africa with one passport, one currency, and a fully integrated political and economic system is unlikely to happen within our lifetime. It is good to dream and to idealise the kind of Africa we would like to see, but in its current political and economic format, the continent is nowhere near achieving that goal. I am 55 years old, so when I talk about a lifetime, I am talking about the next 25 years. If I live to 80, that would be wonderful, but I do not believe Africa will achieve that level of integration within that timeframe. The reason is quite simple. If you look at the European Union, countries do not simply join because they want to. They must first meet a long list of requirements and benchmarks. These include economic standards, institutional capacity, governance standards, judicial independence, and human rights protections. Even if we set aside the human rights question in Africa, because we know that remains a long journey, the economic question alone presents a major obstacle. A truly united continent can only emerge if its member states are led by competent, educated, and trustworthy leaders who build functioning economies capable of providing opportunities for their own citizens. The current xenophobic, Afrophobic, and anti-immigration discourse taking place in South Africa is often crude and sometimes ugly. However, stripped of the crudeness, there is an important point being raised that cannot simply be ignored. For Africans to unite successfully, they cannot first unite in one country. They must first unite across the continent by creating broadly comparable economic opportunities and living standards. For example, a Ghanaian should be able to travel to Zimbabwe visa-free. That is largely a political decision. But if that Ghanaian wants to relocate permanently to Zimbabwe, then the economies of Ghana and Zimbabwe should have a reasonable degree of parity. People should not be compelled to migrate primarily because one country is functioning while another is failing. The same applies across the continent. Someone should not feel forced to leave the Democratic Republic of Congo for South Africa purely because of economic collapse at home. If integration is driven solely by economics, then the countries that are relatively well managed will inevitably carry the burden of those that are not. This is an intellectual discussion that Africa cannot avoid. Resource competition is often what inflames tensions. If someone moves from a poor community in Mozambique to a poor community in South Africa, both groups are competing for the same clinics, schools, housing, jobs, and social services. That is where tensions arise. Interestingly, illegal immigrants from Europe are rarely part of the immigration debate in South Africa. Many people immediately attribute this to race, but there is another factor that deserves consideration. Wealthy immigrants generally live in affluent communities where there is little or no competition for scarce public resources. Take Chatunga Mugabe, for example. He lived in Hyde Park, drove expensive cars, and socialised in Sandton. Nobody was concerned about his immigration status. Likewise, where I live in South Africa, there are immigrants from the United Kingdom, Spain, Germany, Kenya, and elsewhere. They are largely affluent people. The South Africans living there are often excited when newcomers arrive. When I moved from Zimbabwe and bought a house on my road, both black and white South Africans invited me into their homes for dinner and wine. There was no hostility because there was no competition for resources. That reality matters. If Africa is ever going to have one passport and one currency, we must first deal with the economic fundamentals. Most Africans do not realise that this is not primarily a political project. It is an economic one. Turkey, for example, has spent decades seeking membership of the European Union but has not been admitted because it has not met all the requirements. Countries such as Bulgaria and Romania had to meet strict standards before joining. Their judicial systems, governance structures, healthcare systems, and institutions had to reach certain benchmarks. The same logic applies to Africa. If every African citizen were suddenly free to seek healthcare anywhere on the continent, countries with stronger healthcare systems such as South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia would immediately face enormous pressure from people seeking treatment, including specialised care for conditions such as cancer. That is why this discussion is important. We must have it honestly and without slogans. We must discuss it not only in universities and intellectual circles but also in townships, villages, and communities across Africa. The dream of one Africa is a noble one. I support it. But before we get there, we must first address the economic, institutional, and governance realities that stand in the way. Until those challenges are resolved, the vision Julius Malema speaks about will remain an aspiration rather than a practical reality. The tragedy we face today is that we are focusing on the sideshows created by tribalists and rogue political actors who are taking advantage of a genuine problem that exists in South Africa and, indeed, in other parts of Africa as well. We amplify their voices and focus on what they are saying instead of focusing on the real issue. We should be asking ourselves a simple question. Julius Malema is right about the ideal he is advocating, but why are we not getting to where he wants us to get? Once we ask that question honestly, we are forced to examine the root causes. There can be no economic harmony, political harmony, or any other form of harmony between countries that are operating at vastly different levels of development and functionality. Take Zimbabwe and South Africa as an example. Zimbabwe has not had a working radiotherapy machine in its public healthcare system for more than four years. The countryโ€™s largest hospital has only one maternity theatre, built in 1977. Then look at South Africa. Its public healthcare system has some problems and could be much better, but by African standards it remains among the most advanced on the continent. If those two countries stand side by side, as they physically do, how do you integrate them when one is dysfunctional and the other remains a functioning state? These are the root causes we need to confront. This discussion must be held in a comprehensive and honest manner, not in fragments. We can speak about the noble aspirations of Pan-Africanism, and we can also discuss the obstacles that stand in its way. Both conversations must be held together. Only then can we identify what needs to be done and begin serious scenario planning around how to get there. Instead, we often get beautiful speeches delivered at the African Union, one of the most ineffective continental organisations in the world. People make grand declarations, earn generous salaries, and then nothing happens. Great speeches have been delivered since the days of the Organisation of African Unity. One of those speeches was even immortalised by Bob Marley in his song War. Yet more than 60 years later, many of the same challenges remain unresolved. That is an indictment not only of African leaders but also of African elites. Too many are content to make money while ignoring the underlying governance failures that hold the continent back. Consider Aliko Dangote, the richest black man in the world and Africaโ€™s most successful entrepreneur. He requires 34 visas to enter dozens of African countries. Yet if I hold a British passport, my movement across much of Africa can often be easier than his. How can Africa speak seriously about integration when one of its own leading business figures faces such barriers within the continent? Until influential African business leaders such as Aliko Dangote, Strive Masiyiwa, Patrice Motsepe, and others begin speaking more forcefully about governance, corruption, economic mismanagement, and state dysfunction, progress will remain slow. As long as these issues are accommodated because money can still be made, Africa will continue to talk about unity without creating the conditions necessary to achieve it. So, back in the townships of South Africa, there is a crisis. I have always said that Zimbabwe is no longer a foreign policy issue. It is a domestic issue because the South African government must deal with its consequences in hospitals, social services, employment, housing, education, and many other facets of daily life. If the South African government does not have the courage to stand up to leaders such as Emmerson Mnangagwa and Mozambiqueโ€™s President, Daniel Chapo, and say, โ€œThe way you are running your economies is creating problems for us,โ€ then the situation will continue to deteriorate. The tragedy is that it is always the poor, the ordinary, and those living in abject poverty who end up fighting amongst themselves. Yet the root causes of these tensions are often created at the highest levels of political leadership. The people competing for jobs, housing, healthcare, and other scarce resources did not create the conditions that led to mass migration. Those conditions were created by policy failures, corruption, poor governance, and economic mismanagement. I would go even further and say that this is also an indictment of South African leadership. SADC already has protocols, principles, and governance frameworks that were specifically designed to prevent member states from becoming dysfunctional and destabilising their neighbours. The problem is not the absence of rules. The problem is the absence of enforcement. Those protocols exist on paper, but too often they are ignored in practice. When governance standards are violated, when economies collapse, when democratic institutions are weakened, and when corruption flourishes, there is rarely any meaningful consequence from the region. As a result, the effects spill across borders and eventually become someone elseโ€™s problem. That is why the immigration debate cannot be separated from the governance debate. They are two sides of the same coin. If African leaders are serious about reducing migration pressures, they must first address the political and economic failures that are pushing people to leave their countries in the first place. We all know why that conversation is avoided. So, coming back to Trevor Noahโ€™s analogy, it is ultimately a human analogy. It reflects a reality that has existed throughout history and even in nature itself. If lions have abundant access to zebras and other prey, there is very little competition between lions, leopards, and other predators. But when food becomes scarce, competition intensifies. The struggle is no longer about identity. It becomes a struggle over limited resources. The same principle applies in human societies. When jobs are plentiful, when healthcare functions, when housing is available, and when opportunities are expanding, people are generally more tolerant and welcoming. But the moment resources become scarce, tensions rise. People begin competing for the same opportunities, and that competition often manifests itself through politics, nationalism, tribalism, xenophobia, or other forms of social conflict. This is not unique to South Africa. It is not unique to Africa. It is part of the human condition. In many ways, what we are witnessing is both a human story and an animal kingdom story. The underlying dynamic is remarkably similar. Scarcity creates competition. Competition creates tension. Tension creates conflict. That is why discussions about immigration cannot be separated from discussions about governance, economic growth, service delivery, and opportunity. If we focus only on the symptoms while ignoring the underlying causes, we will never solve the problem. The real challenge is not merely getting people to live together. The real challenge is creating societies and economies that produce enough opportunity for people to live together peacefully.

Hopewell Chinโ€™ono

91,304 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 2 Monaten

BEARISH ON OPENAI The investment case for OpenAI has never been more precarious than it is right now in late 2025. What was once a company that seemed destined to dominate the artificial intelligence revolution has revealed itself to be a structurally disadvantaged challenger fighting a defensive war on multiple fronts. The company anticipates burning through roughly $9 billion this year on $13 billion in sales, a cash burn rate of approximately 70% of revenue. This is not the profile of a company poised to capture monopolistic profits from a transformative technology; it is the profile of a utility company spending astronomical sums to deliver a commodity product that competitors are increasingly giving away for free. The financial trajectory only becomes more alarming when examined over a longer time horizon. The documents show OpenAI projects that by 2028, its operating losses will balloon to roughly three-quarters of that yearโ€™s revenue, driven primarily by ballooning spending on computing costs. The company has painted a rosy picture of eventual profitability by 2029 or 2030, but this projection requires believing that OpenAI can grow revenue from roughly $13 billion today to $125 billion or more while simultaneously maintaining pricing power in a market where every major technology company and numerous startups are racing to commoditize the very product OpenAI sells. The cash burn is expected to reach $115 billion cumulatively through 2029, according to The Information. These numbers represent a staggering bet that requires near-perfect execution across multiple dimensions over half a decade. The most damning evidence against OpenAIโ€™s long-term viability is the evaporation of its technological moat. In 2023, GPT-4 felt like genuine magic, a capability that no other company could replicate. Today, that lead has effectively vanished. The sudden availability of frontier-level open-source models is expected to dramatically accelerate AI development globally, potentially reshaping entire industries and altering the balance of power in the tech world. Metaโ€™s Llama series, Mistralโ€™s increasingly capable models, and even Chinese competitors like DeepSeek have demonstrated that the core technology powering ChatGPT is replicable and, in many cases, distributable for free. When your product becomes commoditized, the economics become brutal, and OpenAI finds itself in the position of trying to sell bottled water in a world where tap water has become indistinguishable in quality. The competitive pressure from open-source alternatives is compounding rapidly. The open source movement in AI has grown exponentially over the past few years. Instead of relying solely on expensive, closed models from major tech companies, developers and researchers worldwide can now access, modify, and improve upon state-of-the-art LLMs. This democratization is existential for OpenAIโ€™s business model. Enterprises that once paid premium prices for API access now have the option to run comparable models on their own infrastructure at a fraction of the cost, with the added benefits of data privacy and customization. The value proposition that justified OpenAIโ€™s premium pricing has eroded faster than anyone anticipated, and there is no indication that this trend will reverse. Perhaps nothing illustrates OpenAIโ€™s structural weakness more clearly than the behavior of its most important partner. Microsoft is dancing to its own tune in the artificial intelligence revolution, and Wall Street cannot stop watching. Despite pouring approximately $13 billion into OpenAI over several years, DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria estimates that just 17 percent of Microsoftโ€™s total Azure revenue comes from artificial intelligence workloads. More critically, only 6 percent of that total ties directly to reselling OpenAIโ€™s models, while approximately 75 percent is generated from Azure AI. Microsoft is building its own models, hedging with Anthropic, and quietly reducing its dependency on the very company it funded. When your largest investor is simultaneously your biggest competitor and is actively developing alternatives to your core product, the strategic implications are dire. Leaders at Microsoft believe Anthropicโ€™s latest models โ€” Claude Sonnet 4, specifically โ€” perform better than OpenAIโ€™s in certain functions, like creating aesthetically pleasing PowerPoint presentations. This is not a minor technical preference; it represents a fundamental shift in how Microsoft views its partnership with OpenAI. Microsoft is dramatically escalating its AI independence strategy. At an internal town hall Thursday, Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman revealed the company is making โ€œsignificant investmentsโ€ in compute capacity to build frontier models that can compete directly with OpenAI, Google, and Meta. The company that was supposed to be OpenAIโ€™s path to distribution and scale is instead preparing for a future where OpenAI is just one vendor among many, if not an outright competitor. The leadership exodus at OpenAI over the past year has been nothing short of catastrophic. In September 2024, Murati announced that she was stepping down as CTO. This move came amid a wider executive exodus as OpenAI chief research officer Bob McGrew and a vice president of research, Barret Zoph, also announced their departures soon after. Mira Murati was not a minor figure; she was instrumental in the development of ChatGPT, Dall-E, and Sora. Her departure, along with co-founder Ilya Sutskever, safety leader Jan Leike, and co-founder John Schulman who joined rival Anthropic, has left CEO Sam Altman without much of the leadership team that helped him build OpenAI into an AI juggernaut. Hannah Wong, the executive who steered OpenAI through its most chaotic period, has announced sheโ€™s leaving the company just this month, continuing the pattern of senior departures that suggests something fundamentally broken in the organizationโ€™s culture or direction. The distribution problem facing OpenAI may be its most insurmountable challenge. Apple and Google control the smartphones that billions of people use every day. Microsoft controls the productivity software that enterprises depend upon. OpenAI, by contrast, must convince users to deliberately open a separate application and type their queries into a text box. In a world of agentic AI where assistants need access to your email, calendar, and files to be useful, an AI embedded directly into your operating system has an overwhelming structural advantage over a standalone chatbot. OpenAI is trying to be a consumer product company without owning any of the surfaces where consumers actually spend their time, competing against incumbents who can simply bundle AI capabilities directly into products that already have hundreds of millions of daily active users. The nuclear-to-solar analogy captures the fundamental economic transformation that is devastating OpenAIโ€™s business model. Just as nuclear power required enormous upfront capital expenditure for centralized power plants, AI in its current form requires massive data center investments to train and serve models. But the direction of travel is unmistakably toward distributed intelligence that runs locally on devices. A major part of the pitch is practicality. Lample emphasizes that Ministral 3 can run on a single GPU, making it deployable on affordable hardware โ€” from on-premise servers to laptops, robots, and other edge devices that may have limited connectivity. When powerful AI models can run on a smartphone or a laptop without any cloud connection, the entire economic rationale for paying premium prices to access centralized AI infrastructure disappears. OpenAI is building nuclear reactors in a world that is rapidly installing solar panels on every rooftop. The proposed $1 trillion IPO valuation is perhaps the clearest signal that something is deeply wrong with the OpenAI story. In the first half of the year, OpenAI lost $13.5 billion, on revenue of $4.3 billion. It is on track to lose $27 billion for the year. One estimate shows OpenAI will burn $115 billion by 2029. Asking public market investors to pay $1 trillion for a company that loses more than twice as much as it earns is not a growth story; it is an exit strategy. The sophisticated investors who funded OpenAIโ€™s private rounds are looking for a way to transfer their risk to retail investors and pension funds who may not fully understand the unit economics of the business. A recent report by HSBC estimated that the company will remain in the unprofitable category until 2029 and that the company will need an additional $207 billion to fund its ambitions. Sam Altmanโ€™s leadership represents another structural liability for the company. His background is as a startup investor and evangelist, not as an operational executive who has scaled a capital-intensive industrial operation. The pivot from nonprofit research lab to for-profit corporation to public benefit corporation to anticipated public company has been accompanied by legal and governance structures designed primarily to protect Altmanโ€™s control rather than to create shareholder value. Going public means answering a lot more of those kinds of questions, every single quarter, forever. When asked about financial concerns in a friendly podcast interview, Altmanโ€™s dismissive response revealed a leader uncomfortable with the scrutiny that public markets will inevitably bring. The adults in the room have largely departed, leaving a company that desperately needs disciplined execution led by someone whose strengths lie elsewhere. The comparison to Netscape is instructive. Netscape proved that the internet was real and created genuine value, but it had no sustainable moat against an incumbent who could bundle the browser directly into the operating system. OpenAI has proven that large language models are real and valuable, but it faces the same structural disadvantage against incumbents who can bundle AI directly into operating systems, productivity suites, and cloud platforms. The value will accrue to the companies that own the distribution channels and the hardware, not to the company that demonstrated the technology was possible. OpenAI is destined to become a historical footnote, remembered as the company that ignited the AI revolution but failed to capture the economic value it created. The only bull case for OpenAI is the AGI lottery ticket: the possibility that the company achieves artificial general intelligence before anyone else and thereby transcends all normal economic analysis. But there is no evidence that OpenAI is any closer to AGI than Google, Anthropic, or DeepMind. The companyโ€™s advantage was never secret research breakthroughs; it was first-mover advantage in commercialization. That advantage has now been erased by competitors who can match or exceed OpenAIโ€™s capabilities while benefiting from existing ecosystems, distribution channels, and the willingness to operate AI as a loss leader to drive engagement with more profitable products. The secret sauce was never secret, and there was never any sauce. The endgame for OpenAI is unlikely to be the triumphant dominance that early investors imagined. The most probable outcomes range from gradual irrelevance as a backend provider, to financial restructuring under pressure from creditors, to absorption by Microsoft or another well-capitalized technology company looking to acquire the remaining talent and intellectual property at a discount. Despite its current losses, OpenAIโ€™s long-term prospects are bolstered by the explosive growth of the AI market. But growth in the overall AI market does not guarantee success for any individual company, particularly one with no moat, no ecosystem, and a cost structure that requires selling a commodity at premium prices. The AI revolution is real, but OpenAIโ€™s role in capturing its economic value is far from assured. For anyone considering an investment in OpenAI at anything close to current valuations, the prudent course is to stay far away and watch from the sidelines as economic reality catches up with hype.

David Shapiro (L/0)

69,180 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 7 Monaten

Muizzuโ€™s UN speech was riddled with blatant lies and staggering hypocrisy. What we witnessed was a clear reflection of his character on the global stage. It is deeply embarrassing for every Maldivian to see him believe that such fabrications would go unnoticed by the international community. His words undermine the trust and credibility our nation once held, and under his leadership, we are steadily losing both our reliability and standing on the world stage. This was never the case during the MDP government, given their vast experience in international relations. Even a simple glance reveals glaring inconsistencies. 1. Muizzu: I have a map here of the world with countries which are facing some sort of crisis. In red, do you see any countries in green who are not facing any crisis? Do you know why? Because we are all deep in the red. Humanity is in crisis, and in many cases, it's man made. We need nations united in harmony, not United Nations in misery. The conflicts in the world were created by people like Muizzu. Wars have mostly been fueled by nationalistic rhetoric. World War I and II erupted from nationalist movements, much like the one Muizzu is attempting to cultivate in the Maldives by creating a ministry dedicated to nationalism. Muizzu also spearheaded a hate-driven campaign against India, a regional superpower, which he later confessed to the former president of Sri Lanka was merely a tactic to win votes. The aftermath of this tactic continues to this day, as hate-mongering weakens international relations and sows the seeds of conflict. Muizzu is not an agent of peace; he is an agent of division and war. His foreign policy has contributed to a less stable regional security environment. 2. Muizzu: Iโ€™m here at the United Nations with a vision of where I want to take my country. A society that is inclusive and just. A country that exemplifies sustainability and democratic governance. Under your presidency, our society is neither inclusive nor just. Only last week, the government extended the foreign study loan facility solely to the children of diplomats, leaving the rest of the population out in the cold. People are losing their jobs in the Maldives, replaced by incompetent party loyalists. Basic health insurance for those needing to travel abroad has become increasingly difficult for people with differing political views. Justice is being systematically denied. The Criminal Court itself acknowledged that police negligence allowed a criminal to walk free in relation to a road accident. It is widely believed that you interfered with the courts to block justice for former President Yameen. Meanwhile, democratic institutions are at risk, thanks to the stranglehold Muizzu exert on the media. 3. Muizzu: Boosting productivity will be the key to economic transformation. This we will do by reforming and strengthening our institutions. Anti-Corruption Commission has been reduced to a shell of its former self under your presidency. A thriving economy cannot be built on the back of institutions that refuse to hold the powerful accountable. 4. Muizzu: Enhancing digital connectivity is key to achieving Inclusive development. We are using and expanding artificial intelligence systems to deliver essential services such as health care, education and social welfare. Proper digital connectivity requires fast, affordable internet, but the initiatives launched by the previous administration to achieve this have stalled under your watch. As for your claims of using artificial intelligence in healthcare, education, and social welfareโ€”that is simply untrue. No AI systems have been implemented in any of these sectors in Maldives. 5. Muizzu: We are also delving into cutting edge applications of 5G technology, using drones for medical supplies, delivery and implementing smart road systems, and using AI enhanced technology for erosion detection and environmental monitoring. The notion of using cutting-edge 5G technology is also a fabrication, a lie. Utilizing drones for medical supplies is not cutting-edge; itโ€™s a sign of failure to stock essential medicines on our islandsโ€”a national disgrace. There are no smart road systems in the Maldives, and no island is equipped with erosion detection or environmental monitoring technology. Which also is a lie. 6. Muizzu: The transformation can be sustainable only if we transform our education and financial systems. Despite holding a supermajority in parliament, there have been no bills or initiatives to advance fintech, nor any indication that the MMA has shifted its stance to embrace modern financial solutions. 7. Muizzu: We need to invest in digital literacy from a young age, to build a generation that can use artificial intelligence to enhance public service delivery. No initiatives have been undertaken by your government to invest in digital literacy, yet funds have been allocated to promote nationalism in schools. Why didnโ€™t Muizzu mention at the UN how much public money is being wasted on this propaganda project? 8. Muizzu: The result we desire is inclusive development, where equality of access to opportunities is guaranteed. Most development projects have been awarded to Chinese companies, even those that local companies could manage. Smaller projects have been marred by accusations of corruption. Even basic painting jobs from HDC have raised allegations of high-level corruption. There is no equal access to opportunities. 9. Muizzu: ....where every Maldivian citizen has adequate housing. As for housing, the land reclamation and plots and flats granted by the previous government have halted under your administration for no reason. 10. Muizzu: My government has launched $6.5 million loan facility IT specifically for women entrepreneurs, of which 25% is allocated to those with disabilities. The $6.5 million loan facility you mentioned for women entrepreneurs, including those with disabilities, never materialized. It was nothing but a campaign promise, and news papers revealed that these loans were temporarily halted by government. 11. Muizzu: Ras Malai this is my promise to the Maldivian people. Eight months have passed, and the Fushi Dhiggaru Falhu project remains incomplete. At times, there has been no progress at all, as developers have repeatedly stopped reclamation work & this could be the status of the project for the next 4 years. This project is a financial burden to the country and there was no transparency at any stage of the project. 12. Muizzu: Tourism drives the Maldivian economy. My vision is to expand the tourism sector further. His deputy ministers have actively damaged relations with one of our largest tourism marketsโ€”Indiaโ€”costing us more than $3.8 million, according to industry experts. 13. Muizzu: But we can't keep doing this. We can't keep meeting, talking, pledging, but not doing. We don't want these days to come back to haunt us. The days when we had a chance, but not a will. Muizzu is doing exactly what he claim at UNโ€”making promises without delivering results. None of his pledges have been fulfilled, yet he continue to pile on new ones. Sounds like Muizzu is talking about himself. 14. Muizzu: We championed the right to environment because we are keenly aware of the consequences of environmental degradation. Despite claiming to champion the environment, he previously dismissed the environmental threats facing Maldives as a "myth" during an interview with Al-Jazeera. Now, at the UN, he spent around 3 minutes pretending to care about our environment. 15. Muizzu: We must accept a sovereign and independent Palestinian state on the pre 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital. When the previous administration made a similar statement in support of a two-state solution for Palestine, Muizzuโ€™s hardcore supporters opposed it vehemently. Now, he repeat the same statement, ignoring the hypocrisy. He should have gone for one state solution. 16. Muizzu: The Maldives has always taken ownership and responsibility for its own development. While we have received extensive support towards our development, we urge the multilateral development funds, banks and bilateral donors to view us as your partners, not just as recipients of aid. "Maldives has always taken ownership and responsibility for its own development," it suggests that Maldives is self-sufficient with funds and leading its own progress. However, in the very next sentence, he acknowledges that the Maldives has "received extensive support" towards its development, which contradicts his first sentence. We can become a partner when we can contribute to global funds and initiatives, not when our country relies solely on being the recipient. 17. Muizzu: What we are witnessing is the opposite inability to stop climate change and environmental degradation, inability to stop war and genocide, inability to stop exploitation and suffering. UN, like other multilateral organizations, is inherently limited in its ability to intervene in sovereign states. Its authority is restricted by the collective will of its member nations, as sovereignty remains a fundamental principle of international law. Muizzu doesn't know this?

Mohamed Faisal

54,161 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 1 Jahr

Detailed Summary of โ€œPresident Trump Addresses the Nationโ€ on July 16th, 2026 President Trump begins the address by presenting an optimistic assessment of the country's condition under his administration. He argues that the United States has undergone a dramatic turnaround from what he describes as an inherited economic and social crisis characterized by high inflation, uncontrolled illegal immigration, rising crime, and declining international prestige. According to Trump, the nation is now experiencing renewed prosperity, stronger economic performance, increased foreign investment, lower inflation, record-breaking financial markets, and historically high employment. He also highlights several domestic policy achievements, including tax initiatives such as eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits, incentives for purchasing American-made vehicles, prescription drug pricing reforms, and the creation of "Trump Accounts," tax-advantaged investment accounts intended to help American children accumulate long-term wealth. Trump next turns to immigration and public safety, claiming that the southern border has become the most secure in American history. He asserts that illegal immigration has effectively been halted, that crime has fallen nationwide, and that the murder rate has reached historic lows. He also emphasizes continued military investment, describing the U.S. armed forces as the strongest in the world. Brief references are made to foreign policy, including cooperation with Venezuela on oil production and what he characterizes as favorable developments involving Iran, though he provides few specifics before transitioning to what he identifies as the central purpose of the speech. The primary focus of the address is election security. Trump argues that public trust in elections is indispensable to maintaining confidence in government and national unity. He announces the immediate declassification of intelligence documents that he says expose serious vulnerabilities in America's election infrastructure. According to Trump, the objective of releasing these materials is not to undermine confidence in elections but to strengthen it through transparency, public awareness, and corrective action. Trump organizes the newly released material into five principal areas. The first concerns alleged Chinese cyber operations targeting American voter data. Trump states that intelligence indicates the People's Republic of China conducted what he describes as one of the largest compromises of election-related data in history beginning around the 2020 election cycle. According to his description, Chinese actors allegedly acquired approximately 220 million U.S. voter records containing names, addresses, telephone numbers, political affiliations, and other registration information. He argues that this information could be used to facilitate election interference and claims Chinese intelligence established specialized units dedicated to exploiting the stolen data. Trump further alleges that senior officials within portions of the U.S. intelligence community deliberately suppressed information regarding the Chinese operation. According to his account, intelligence agencies became aware that voter registration information from numerous states had been compromised, yet failed to inform either the President or Congress. He contends that officials instead publicly emphasized that the 2020 election was secure while internally possessing information suggesting significant vulnerabilities. The speech then expands beyond cyber intrusions into broader allegations regarding Chinese influence efforts. Trump cites intelligence reports dating back to 2018 and 2019 that he says describe a Chinese government strategy aimed at weakening his presidency, influencing American public opinion, encouraging opposition among business leaders, and cultivating favorable media coverage through financial incentives. He argues these activities formed part of a comprehensive campaign to undermine his administration politically. Trump next discusses intelligence that he says was obtained by the FBI in 2020 alleging Chinese involvement in efforts to manufacture illegal ballots benefiting Joe Biden. He claims this intelligence was never presented in his daily presidential briefings because officials intentionally removed or minimized such reporting. He references internal communications that he says reveal analysts deliberately withheld information about Chinese election activities. Trump also alleges that one FBI official referred internally to operating a "shadow government" designed to prevent politically sensitive intelligence from reaching senior leadership or the public. The President then references recently discovered "burn bags," explaining that these bags reportedly contained government documents that had been scheduled for destruction during the Obama administration but instead remained intact due to what he characterizes as bureaucratic incompetence. He states that the recovered materials have produced significant findings and announces that he has directed the Department of Justice, FBI, CIA, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence to investigate why information was withheld and whether criminal charges are warranted. The third category of declassified material concerns election technology itself. Trump argues that electronic voting machines, centralized voter registration databases, ballot-counting systems, and related election infrastructure have long been recognized within the intelligence community as vulnerable to cyber compromise. He states that classified assessments identified Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and non-state actors as possessing the capability to penetrate or manipulate election systems. Trump says these assessments demonstrate that government officials were aware of these vulnerabilities for years while publicly assuring Americans that election systems were secure. He further references intelligence describing cyber methods that allegedly could digitally alter vote totals in ways that would evade traditional audits. Trump argues that these findings underscore the necessity of replacing or significantly reforming existing election technology to eliminate opportunities for manipulation. The fourth section of the address focuses on alleged domestic election fraud investigations. Trump describes an investigation in Michigan in which state police reportedly executed search warrants involving a voter registration organization. According to his description, investigators obtained admissions from canvassers who allegedly signed voter registration forms using false identities, submitted fraudulent registrations, and received financial incentives based on the number of applications collected. Trump states that FBI investigators believed crimes had occurred but that the Biden Justice Department terminated the investigation before prosecution. He directs the current FBI Director to reopen and fully investigate the matter. Trump also discusses findings from a Department of Homeland Security review that he says identified thousands of noncitizens registered to vote in federal elections. He argues that because some states declined to share voter registration data, the actual number may be significantly larger. He contends that outdated voter rolls containing noncitizens and deceased individuals represent additional vulnerabilities that undermine election integrity. Throughout the speech, Trump criticizes existing election administration practices, particularly extended ballot-counting periods and widespread mail-in voting. He cites California's lengthy vote-counting process as evidence that election administration has become inefficient and susceptible to public distrust. He argues that large-scale mail voting creates opportunities for fraud and should be significantly restricted. Trump also sharply criticizes major news organizations, specifically mentioning NBC and ABC, after stating that they declined to broadcast the address. He accuses portions of the media of deliberately minimizing election security concerns and participating in efforts to conceal vulnerabilities from the American public. He argues that media organizations have failed in their responsibility to provide objective reporting on matters of national importance. The President concludes by outlining several actions his administration intends to pursue immediately. He states that affected states will be notified if their voter registration data was compromised, and that DHS will brief state officials regarding cyber vulnerabilities affecting election infrastructure. Federal agencies, he says, will work with states to improve cybersecurity protections before upcoming elections. DHS will also notify states regarding individuals identified as noncitizens on voter rolls so that appropriate eligibility reviews can occur. Finally, Trump urges Congress to pass the SAVE America Act, which he presents as the legislative solution to many of the vulnerabilities described during the speech. As summarized by Trump, the proposal would require photo identification for voting, documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for voter registration, restrictions on mail-in voting except for specified circumstances such as military service, disability, illness, or travel, and measures intended to improve the accuracy of voter registration rolls. He calls on Americans to contact their elected representatives and encourage passage of the legislation, arguing that restoring confidence in elections is essential to preserving democratic institutions and strengthening national unity. The address closes with an appeal for bipartisan support for election integrity reforms, a call for national unity around free and fair elections, expressions of support for the U.S. military, and the traditional closing, "God Bless America." ### Summary in 30 Bullet Points President Trump opens by asserting that the United States is stronger, safer, and wealthier than when his administration took office. He characterizes the prior administration as leaving behind severe inflation, an unsecured southern border, rising crime, and declining international respect. He states that inflation has experienced its largest monthly decline in more than six years. He highlights tax initiatives including no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on Social Security benefits, along with tax incentives for purchasing American-made vehicles. He says stock markets and retirement accounts have reached record highs. He claims his prescription drug pricing policies have reduced drug costs and lowered healthcare expenses. He promotes โ€œTrump Accounts,โ€ describing them as tax-advantaged investment accounts intended to help children build long-term savings. He states that Americaโ€™s borders have become the most secure in U.S. history. He claims zero illegal immigrants have been admitted into the United States during the previous 14 months. He says national crime rates, including the murder rate, have fallen significantly. He emphasizes continued investment in the U.S. military, describing it as the worldโ€™s strongest armed force. He references energy cooperation with Venezuela and says positive developments regarding Iran will become apparent soon. He argues that trustworthy elections are essential to maintaining public confidence in government. The central announcement of the speech is the immediate declassification of intelligence documents concerning election security. He says the purpose of releasing the documents is to increase transparency by exposing and addressing vulnerabilities. Trump alleges the documents show that China conducted a massive operation to obtain U.S. voter registration data beginning around the 2020 election cycle. According to his remarks, the compromised data allegedly included voter names, addresses, phone numbers, party affiliations, and other registration information. He claims intelligence agencies knew about the alleged compromise but withheld the information from both the President and Congress. He further alleges that intelligence officials deliberately minimized or suppressed reporting regarding Chinese election-related activities. Trump says additional intelligence indicates China sought to influence U.S. politics through media, business leaders, and public opinion campaigns. He alleges the FBI received intelligence in 2020 concerning efforts related to manufacturing illegal ballots for Joe Biden but says the information was buried by officials. He claims internal communications show presidential intelligence briefings omitted significant information regarding Chinese election interference. Trump references recently discovered โ€œburn bags,โ€ suggesting they contained government records that were supposed to have been destroyed but instead were recovered. He announces that the Department of Justice, FBI, CIA, and Director of National Intelligence have been directed to investigate why intelligence was allegedly withheld and to pursue criminal charges where appropriate. Trump argues electronic voting machines, centralized voter databases, and ballot-counting systems are vulnerable to cyberattacks by foreign governments and non-state actors. He cites newly released intelligence spanning 2022โ€“2026 that he says documents cyber vulnerabilities affecting U.S. election infrastructure. He discusses alleged election fraud investigations, including a Michigan voter registration case, asserting that evidence was not fully pursued by the prior Justice Department. He says DHS reviews identified noncitizens registered to vote and contends that outdated voter rolls contribute to election vulnerabilities. Trump criticizes lengthy ballot-counting processes, particularly citing California, and argues that major media organizations have avoided covering election security issues. He concludes by urging Congress to pass the SAVE America Act, which he says would require photo voter identification, proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration, restrict most mail-in voting to specified exceptions, require states to remove ineligible voters from registration rolls, and strengthen election security measures. Election Integrity Documents The recently declassified documents from President Trumpโ€™s July 16, 2026 address are available here on the official White House site: Key Sections & Downloads (ZIP files): - Vulnerabilities in Electronic Voting & Ballot-Counting Systems - Chinaโ€™s Acquisition and Exploitation of American Voter Data (references ~220 million voter files) - Michigan Voter-Registration Investigation - Noncitizens on State Voter Rolls (references ~278,000 non-citizens) The page includes summaries from the administration and direct download links for the document packages.

Tony Seruga

29,607 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 27 Tagen

When Elon Musk beams in virtually for a high-stakes fireside chat with JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, the conversation goes completely out of this world. The discussion was packed with massive milestonesโ€”from the bombshell that SpaceX is going public to plans for lunar AI data centers and the urgent need for the Terafab chip revolution. Here is the ultimate breakdown of their discussion: ๐Ÿ’ต SpaceX has been self-funding and cash-flow positive for a decade Before the decision to go public, SpaceX didn't actually need to raise money to survive. The company has been cash-flow positive since around 2014โ€“2015, meaning its private equity rounds were exclusively held to provide liquidity for employees and early investors. "We've been positive cash flow for quite a long time, I think, since around 2014-2015. And we've been self-funding. In fact, in our sort of private equity rounds, they actually have not been fundraising rounds. They've been liquidity rounds for investors and employees because we give everyone at the company stock." ๐Ÿš€ The upcoming capital growth phase requires massive funding The primary trigger for going public now is an unprecedented capital expenditure phase. SpaceX is preparing to deploy an immense constellation of over 100,000 Next-Gen communication satellites and construct massive AI data centers in orbit. "we are embarking on a significant capital growth phase where we're going to put in over probably 100,000 satellites, probably over 100,000 satellites, just for communications... And then we're also doing the AI data centers in space, which is another massive capital endeavor." ๐Ÿ“ก Starlink V3 introduces a massive bandwidth breakthrough The custom chips designed by SpaceX for the V3 satellites will completely alter global communications, offering 100 times the bandwidth of the current system and slashing latency in half by operating at a lower altitude. They are so largeโ€”the size of a small busโ€”that Starship is the only rocket on Earth capable of launching them, carrying 50 at a time. "The version three is, depending on how you count it, 10 to 20 times more capable than the version two satellite. And there were three chips that the SpaceX chip design team taped out that are specific to this... Which means it's 100 times more bandwidth than the SpaceX's Starlink system currently on the surface. And also half the latency because the altitude will be about half altitude." ๐Ÿค– AI and robots possess an insatiable appetite for data Musk points out that expanding infrastructure into space is vital because future AI and robotic systems will demand an astronomical amount of bandwidth compared to the relatively low data transmission rates of human beings. "And the future with AI and robots is actually going to require a lot more bandwidth than we currently use. Because you can imagine like what's the bandwidth of a human? Peak bandwidth of the human is a few hundred bits per second. But bandwidth of a computer can be a trillion bits a second. So the appetite for bandwidth of AI and robots is going to be enormous." โ˜€๏ธ Space solves the looming terrestrial power plant crisis Building traditional power plants on Earth faces heavy community resistance. Moving data centers into space unlocks unlimited energy generation via solar power ("star power") without disrupting Earth's environment, tapping into an energy source that accounts for 99.8% of the solar system's mass. "It's increasingly difficult to build power plants on the ground. There are very few people who want a power plant in their backyard... But actually if we go to space, we can go far beyond the electricity generation of both. In fact, this is going to sound kind of crazy. But you could actually increase human energy by a factor of a million and still be using much less than a millionth of the sun's energy." ๐ŸŒ• The Moon is a 1,000-Terawatt compute launchpad While Mars remains the long-term goal, the Moon is the immediate fast-track location for massive scaling. Because it lacks an atmosphere and has low gravity, SpaceX can use electromagnetic rail guns to shoot AI data centers into deep space from the lunar surface, scaling power to an incredible 1,000 terawatts per year. "I just think that we can build a self-sustaining city on the moon faster than we could do so on Mars. And there's also the potential... you can use an electromagnetic accelerator, a rail gun or mass driver. Basically, you don't need to use rockets to do AI data centers into deep space from the moon... We can do a thousand terawatts or more from the moon." ๐Ÿช Mars is the ultimate "fixer-upper" planet Mars is being targeted as a full-scale terraforming project. Due to its atmosphere and gravity levels, warming up the planet could eventually unlock liquid oceans and allow humans to walk around without spacesuits. "And if you warm up Mars, you could one day make Mars like Earth. And with like liquid oceans and life. And where you could walk outside without a spacesuit type of thing. So Mars is, I call Mars a fixer upper of a planet. But it's got a lot of potential." ๐Ÿš‚ SpaceX is the modern-day Union Pacific Railroad Musk rejects the idea that SpaceX is moving into the hospitality or hotel business for space tourism. Instead, he views the company as a foundational infrastructure provider, comparable to the historic railroads that opened up the American West. "We're kind of like Union Pacific, you know. You know, when they built Union Pacific back in the day, people thought they were crazy. Because like, why are you trying to carry all this cargo and people to California? No one's there. But now California is the biggest state in the country." โ™ป๏ธ Starship's core disruption is 100% reusability The true holy grail of Starship is full reusability, which drops orbit access costs down to the mere price of fuel. Because it utilizes ultra-cheap liquid oxygen and methane, shipping cargo to space will become more economical than flying cargo across Earth's oceans on an airplane. "The fundamental breakthrough of Starship is that it will be the first orbital rocket that is fully reusable... And the propellant we use for Starship is liquid oxygen and liquid methane, which is the cheapest propellant you could possibly get... which means that you should be able to actually send cargo to space for less than the cost of cargo on an airplane going on a trans-oceanic trip." ๐Ÿ”„ Starship V4 targets hourly launch cadences SpaceX's engineering pipeline is aiming for staggering operational frequencies and massive payloads. While Starship V3 targets 100 tons to orbit, the upcoming V4 variant is designed to carry over 200 tons and launch on an hourly schedule. "Because Starship V3 is aiming to do 100 tons to orbit with full reusability. And then Starship V4 we're aiming for over 200 tons per mission. And then being able to launch every hour." โ˜๏ธ Orbital data centers are entirely weather-proof Space-based AI data centers are highly practical because they are simpler to construct than communication satellites. Data is beamed via lasers between satellites, and then beamed to the ground using cloud-penetrating radio frequencies that completely bypass bad weather. "The AI data center would be much simpler by comparison. Because it's really just solar power plus radiator... The connection would happen no matter what the weather is. Because once you connect via the lasers to the Starlink communication constellation, the Starlink communication to the ground uses frequencies that are cloud penetrating." ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The U.S. faces a catastrophic "Zero Memory Fab" crisis A major vulnerability in domestic tech infrastructure is that the U.S. currently manufactures zero high-volume computer memory chips. Even with new facilities arriving online between 2028 and 2030, domestic supply will not match the exponential requirements of AI, which is why Musk is aggressively building the Terafab. "there's not a single high volume computer memory fab in America right now. Zero. There's one being built in Idaho by Micron. But that will not reach volume production until I believe 2028. And there's something being built in New York, but they are in, I think, 29 and 30. And this is a tiny fraction of the memory that's needed... That's why we need to do the Terafab." ๐Ÿง  SpaceX will offer proprietary AI chips and software While the orbital data center network will remain an open marketplace capable of running third-party hardware like NVIDIA GPUs, Google TPUs, or Amazon Trainium, SpaceX plans to deploy its own in-house AI chips and software stack in the near future. "So if NVIDIA GPUs can be put on it, Google TPUs can be put on it, Amazon Trainium or any other chips that you want to put on, can be put on. We'll also offer our chips in the future and I think we also want to offer our software, our AI software as well in the future." ๐Ÿ›ก๏ธ Starshield handles critical national intelligence Musk emphasizes his deeply pro-American stance, highlighting SpaceX's specialized Starshield division as a crucial backbone for the U.S. military and national intelligence agencies. "We have a division called Starshield which provides military communications. And you know, there's some other stuff that's kind of classified, I guess. We can't be talking about that. But we are helping the Department of War and intelligence part of the government. We're a vital element of that." ๐Ÿ‘ฅ Executive retention fuels the mission The core leadership bench at SpaceX is defined by extreme longevity, driven by a deep collective belief in turning science fiction into reality. Top executives like Gwynne Shotwell have remained with Musk for over two decades. "I guess Gwynne was, I think, around the seventh person to join the company. And that was 2002. It's just went to like 24 years. And generally the senior executives at the company, you have a very long tenure. I think Brent Johnson's been, you see, over 15 years... because people really believe in the mission, I think they want to stay and they want to keep building it." โค๏ธ Character overrides IQ in leadership Reflecting on how he has evolved over 20 years, Musk notes that he has become significantly more laid back. He has also learned that a candidate's moral character and heart are just as vital to a company's success as raw intellectual horsepower. "Well, I think I'm probably more chill than I used to be... And one of the things I've found over time... is that like in terms of like recruiting people to the company and having people work with the company, like their individual abilities and their intellectual capabilities matter a lot, but it also matters if they have a good heart. It's not just about whether somebody has a certain IQ or whatever, but just are they like a good person, that matters a lot."

Ming

60,910 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 2 Monaten

My fellow Kenyans, Many of you have seen my recent posts about the deadly cancer that is corruption in our country. In my last post, I tried to paint a picture of the disconnect between our potential as a country and the economic circumstances we find ourselves in today, and the connection between corruption and the incalculable pain and suffering and cruelty that is meted out every single day to the most vulnerable among us by thieves operating out of public office. And after covering the goings-on in Mandera County, I told you that in my honest opinion, our governments exist to cater for the filthy-rich lifestyles of the vilest and most corrupt among us, at the expense of everyone else. I received tremendous support from all of you, for speaking on behalf of so many struggling Kenyans who donโ€™t have a voice, or the audience necessary to spark the much-needed discussion about where we are heading as a country. But even with all that support, I have received messages asking me to be careful. One compatriot told me: โ€œprepare to be relentlessly pursued, threatened, enticed, guilt-tripped, and gas-litโ€. This is from a someone who knows how our government operates, and how it uses violence and its monopoly on power to silence those who question why politicians are stealing so much. I am not naive about the dangers of speaking up and calling out thieves who control state machinery, and who possess the ability to shut me up in a few seconds. But I will tell you why we CAN NOT and MUST NOT keep quiet. In November of 2023, I stumbled upon the story of a young man from Turkana, Calvin Esekon Esewit , who, despite scoring an A-, and getting an acceptance into medical school, spent two years not knowing whether his dreams of becoming a doctor would ever come true. I was moved by that story in a way that I can never adequately explain. I could not understand how it is possible that, in our country, a young man who appears to be every parentโ€™s dream child can spend two years in limbo while we as a country possess the ability to invest in our best and brightest. And so, I spent weeks trying to chase down Calvin to see how I could help him attend college. After a lot of searching, I finally found Calvin, and by this time he had managed to get some help and is now in college. While this story has a great ending, it did not to be this way. And we know that the number of cases that end like this, with some success, are a small fraction of those ones which end tragically, with broken dreams. This is what happens when corruption consumes anything and everything in a country. It destroys lives. See attached video to learn about Calvin's story. I tell you all this story because it provides context to today's topic. For one story like this one that you see on the news, there are millions that never make the news. But they are real situations, nonetheless. There are millions of your compatriots who are devastated by this killer cancer of corruption that is perpetuated by people that you and I have put into public office ostensibly to improve our lives. They go into these offices and abuse the trust you bestowed upon them and deny you and everyone else a decent opportunity in life. You see, Calvin and millions of other victims of this shameless level of corruption and plunder have no voice, and no real ability to look the thieves that are destroying lives and generations of Kenyans in eye and tell them to stop this unbearable pain and the cruelty. This is the reason I embarked on this journey to attempt to expose this shameful situation. Watch the attached video of Calvinโ€™s situation, and I am sure that you will agree that the millions of Calvins in our country need a voice, NO MATTER THE RISK. The thieves that are destroying the futures of millions of children just so they can have beachside homes in Miami, Dubai and other places count on the idea that most people will fear for their lives, and therefore not speak up. They count on the growing apathy in the Kenyan psyche. But we cannot give in to that. We cannot cower to thieves. We must look them straight in the eye and tell them that they MUST STOP. If we don't, our children and their children are guaranteed the same level of cruelty. And so with that, today I want to talk about the utterly insane crime scene that is Turkana County. I donโ€™t know any other way to describe it, other than, it is a โ€œshit-showโ€. Just follow along, and let me know if you disagree. As I did in my previous commentary, I will ask you to indulge me a little bit, and allow me to use a couple of pictures, because pictures speak louder than a thousand words. The first picture shows the state-of-the art County Government offices, that the County Government of Turkana decided to invest an ungodly amount of money on. Close to a billion shillings. The second picture is a classroom in session. In Turkana County. These two realities are occurring in parallel in the same county, at the same time. Ladies and gentlemen, let me just tell you that I do not go out of my way to find bad news. I want stories that would help re-affirm our belief in the fundamental decency of human beings. When I find good news as I review these Countiesโ€™ decisions and how they behave with our resources, I will be the first one to report it to you. But I donโ€™t have any good news today. I have bad news. If you read my commentary yesterday and were offended by what you saw, I am afraid you might not make it to the end of this article, because what you will hear will be quite shocking. The cancer of corruption, particularly at the County Government level, is worse than your wildest imagination. And so, as I like to do, I like to start off by putting some numbers on the table for us to use as reference points. Bear in my that all the information I put in this article is publicly available. Nothing came to me through a whistle blower. The first number is KSH 100 Billion. With a B. In the last decade or so, you and I, through the National Government, has sent over KSH 100 billion to Turkana County. To support recurrent expenditure, and development. For example, in the 2022-2023 fiscal year, we sent KSH 12.6 billion. In the 2021-2022 fiscal year, we sent KSH 11.4 billion. And on and on and on. The second number is 1 million. This is the population of Turkana County. The third number is KSH 18.4 billion. This was Turkana Countyโ€™s budget for the 2022-2023 fiscal year. The fourth number is KSH 190 million. This was the amount of money that Turkana County was able to generate on its own accord within the county, from all its investments and other activities in the period in question. This number is an important proxy, in my view, for the value of the countyโ€™s economic prospects for the foreseeable future, and to people that are not driven by greed and corruption, would be an important consideration when they are thinking about how and where to deploy your money as taxpayers. If you are doing the math, Turkana County, for the 2022-2023 fiscal year, was only able to raise 1% of the funds needed to keep the lights on. 99% came from you and I, and a tiny amount from grants. The next number is KSH 129, 040. This is the average ANNUAL [emphasis added] income of a resident of Turkana County ( Keep that number in mind when we are discussing the massive theft of public funds by Turkana County leaders. The next number is 80%. 80% of the residents of Turkana County live below the poverty line. They have a really difficult time putting food on the table. ( The next number is KSH 12 Million. This is the basic salary of the Governor of Turkana County before other benefits that, as I explained yesterday, can often double the salary. Remember the โ€œhousing allowanceโ€, the โ€œhardship allowanceโ€, the โ€œcommuter allowanceโ€, the โ€œrisk allowanceโ€, the โ€œextraneous allowanceโ€, etc.? Remember that? I still cannot figure out, for the life of me, what โ€œextraneousโ€ means in the context of County business, but we donโ€™t time to dwell on this. The next number is 93. The Governor of Turkana County makes 93 times the average Turkana County residentโ€™s annual income. 93 times! The next number is 82%. This was the percentage of people that were illiterate in Turkana County in 2013 ( Could not read or write. A point to note about the above literacy figure. Ten years later, and despite over KSH 100 billion is spent in Turkana County, including many billions for education, that literacy rate HAS NOT CHANGED ONE BIT. Only 20% of the population can read or write today. ( KSH 829 million. This is how much it cost to build the County Government offices. Yes, the ones shown in the first picture. KSH 120 million. The County Government decided that it was prudent to pay a contractor KSH 120 million to construct the Governorโ€™s personal residence. Get this, even after this payment, no construction took place. The money was stolen. All of it. KSH 90 Million. This is the amount that the County Government paid to another contractor, to build the Governor a mansion, having previously lost KSH 120 million. So, the tally for the Governorโ€™s residence now stands at KSH 210 million. Never mind that the limit allowed by law is KSH 45 million. KSH 5 billion. In the last days of his term in office, an outgoing Governor of Turkana, Koli Nanok, EGH. , sought to inflate pending bills by adding KSH 5 billion so that it can be paid to his criminal cartel. KSH 5 billion. We have our key numbers, ladies and gentlemen, so let us discuss. So, we have a county that is dead last in literacy, and in the top 2 of the poorest counties in the republic. Only 20% of the population can read. The Governor earns 92 times the average citizen. The Governor lives in a house that cost over KSH 200 million. When he leaves his house in the morning, he goes to his office that cost KSH 829 million. And this is all happening when 80% of the County residents struggle to put food on the table. Those are the facts, and they are not in dispute. During the same time, the County Government geniuses decide to build the Speaker of the County Assembly a house. And a home office, and a garage. The house was initially estimated to cost KSH 75 million. But due to circumstances that not a soul in the government could explain to auditors, the contract expired before the house was completed, and the County Government found a new contractor to complete the job for an additional KSH 29 million. But this palace in the jungle worth apparently worth over KSH 100 million in Turkana County was not enough. The County proceeded to build the Speaker a guest house for another KSH 19 million, and a few other amenities, and so the whole cost went to KSH 276 million! The legal limit for a Speakerโ€™s house is KSH 35 million, and they spent close to KSH 130 million just for one residence. By this time, I am sure you are getting tired of these obscene numbers. You and I work, and pay taxes. Nobody pays you 92 times the income your average neighbor is making. And for sure nobody will drop KSH 100 million to build you a house. These are the perks of working in government in a poor country. Go figure. And so, as a country, we need to answer for ourselves the question I posed yesterday, which is, what is the point of government? What is its role in our lives. If this level of criminality and pillaging can occur in our country in the midst of so much poverty, questioning the need for government is a totally valid question. I said in my last post that, when the average citizen looks at the thug on the street and the government, and is unable to discern any meaningful difference between them, that society from that point on is on its journey to becoming a failed state. A journey to anarchy. Over the last two months or so, Kenyans have been shouting at the top of their lungs, begging for their government to listen. To hear them out. Kenyans have asked that their government stop this unbelievable level of plunder. Dozens of Kenyans have died, thousands injured, and many more are missing today. To this day, the people that govern us continue to use the power of the gun to subdue Kenyans, until they can take everything in their sight. And so, as a society, we all have to ask whether today there is any difference between the thug on the street and our governments. Every Kenyan will have to answer this question for themselves. And before answering this question, everyone needs to remember the many Calvins in our society. Smart, upright children whose only crime is to be born in an unforgiving, lawless, and corrupt purgatory that is Kenya today. For myself, I have concluded that there is no difference between the thug on the street and our governments, county and national alike. If you can see any meaningful difference, let me know. I am willing to listen. So despite over KSH 100 billion in money sent to Turkana County, there is almost no measurable improvement in peopleโ€™s life today. None. And it makes sense, when you look at how that money is spent. I want you to forget for a second the obscene obsession by the County Government with spending ungodly amounts of money on themselves. The houses, etc. If you step back and look at how the government is actually spending the hard-earned money on other things, you will be depressed. I am telling you that I wept three times in the middle of the night trying to make sense of this crazy situation in Turkana County. Three times. I have never imagined that human beings can be so greedy and cold-blooded. Think about this: In the couple of years I reviewed, the County spent around KSH 400 million annually in โ€œtourismโ€ initiatives, including marketing, and apparently upgrading certain facilities. KSH 400 million for tourism. In Turkana County. In 1 year. KSH 400 million per year in marketing and other money pits. The governmentโ€™s own website says that the county gets around 3000 visitors per month. Around 36,000 per year. Thatโ€™s them saying that, on their website. Are you curious to know the return on that KSH 400 million investment? I have an answer for you. Remember that I told you that the County has never raised more than KSH 200 million in a year within the county, despite its KSH 18.4 billion budget? Let me walk you through the breakdown of the absolutely embarrassing shit-show that is the County Governmentโ€™s โ€œown source revenueโ€ operations. In 2022-2023, the County Government collected KSH 190 million locally against their KSH 18.4 billion budget. 1% of the budget. Remember, there is absolutely no requirement on the County to cut costs, or achieve certain local revenue targets today. So they raised KSH 45 million in single business permits, KSH 72 million in CESS, KSH 8 million in market fee, KSH 9 million in โ€œslaughter feesโ€. And then finally, there is the return on the tourism investment that you were looking for. A whopping KSH 209, 000 in โ€œpark feesโ€. KSH 209,000 in fees, after investing KSH 400 million. And so, take this as an example and extrapolate it across the entire budget, and you can see how one can spend KSH 100 billion and get NOTHING in return. You donโ€™t need to be a genius to see the absurdity of this situation. Let me explain using an example that should illustrate the utter dimwittedness of this situation. Remember the KSH 100 billion sent to Turkana by you and me? Part of this amount is supposed to be for โ€œservice deliveryโ€, or โ€œrecurrent expenditureโ€. Usually about 70% of the budget. The balance, 30%, is designed to go to development projects. With that in mind, from KSH 100 billion, the County apparently has made KSH 30 billion worth of investments, right? 30% of the KSH 100 billion. Now, if you employed someone to run a business for you, and they asked you to invest KSH 30 billion, which is no small fortune, at some point you would have to start seeing returns, right? Thatโ€™s common sense, isnโ€™t it? So, when we look at the revenues streams that make up this paltry sum of KSH 190 million, and see things like โ€œslaughter feesโ€™ and โ€œmarket feesโ€, what does it tell you? It tells me there is no real โ€œdevelopmentโ€ happening in that county. Trust me, if you had real development totaling KSH 30 billion, you would have corporate taxes in the hundreds of millions or billions, a booming real estate market, rising wages and standards of living, etc., low unemployment, etc. You would not have 80% of the people living hand-to mouth, and a County Government that can not afford to support itself for 5 days out of the year that has 365 days! We do not have enough time, trust me, to deal with the shit-show that is Turkana County. Dealing with that mess would require a forensic team. I will just highlight a few of other โ€œin your-faceโ€ type of theft of public funds, and then conclude my submission. A government that has a budget of KSH 18.4 billion annually, and which has never raised more than 1% of its budget had the wisdom to do the following with your money: ยท Spend KSH 222 million on a project building something that NOBODY uses. You got that right. They spent KSH 222 million on a facility that NOBODY uses. KSH 222 million gone to waste, in a county that is dead last in pretty much all measures of human progress. ยท Remember the County Government offices that cost KSH 829 million? The County spent KSH 82 million on โ€œair-conditioningโ€ for that building. ยท Despite the County Spending hundreds of millions for the top three officers of the County, the Governor and his Deputy, in the 2022-2023 year, illegally charged the county (you and I) KSH 2.2 million in housing allowance! ยท Built two facilities for KSH 16 million, that were completed, but NOBODY uses them. ยท Entered into a contract for the construction of a plastic use facility for KSH 13 million in 2021. The contractor gets paid KSH 4.9 million, and has never been seen since. ยท Paid out KSH 62 million in salaries that were not supportable in just one year. They could not point to anybody and say, that is who we paid. ยท Paid out KSH 27 million in legal fees that nobody could say what they related to. And the Countyโ€™s Legal Advisor, who, in 2022-2023, had a budget of KSH 123 million, apparently did not know anything about it! ยท Had an outstanding bill at Kenya Revenue Authority in the amount of KSH 486 million, that did not show up on the County Governmentโ€™s financial statements. Think about that. KSH 486 million owned to the Kenya Revenue Authority, and that liability is not on the financial statements! This only means that someone took those funds for themselves, which is why the liability would be missing from the countyโ€™s books. ยท Could not account for KSH 367 million in expenditures for 2022-2023. KSH 367 million, in unexplained expenses. ยท Awarded a contract worth over KSH 200 million to a bidder with no bank statement, against the law. This contract was entered into and approved before the statutory time after the bidding process lapsed. Someone was in a hurry to get paid. KSH 200 million, illegally awarded to a bidder who did not have a 6-month bank statement. ยท Apparently purchased KSH 1.5 billion in assets in 2022-2023, but kept no records of the said assets. For this reason, NOBODY can verify where these assets are located. KSH 1.5 billion. Let me just say this. In my last article, the most common critique was that it was too long. Too many words. I did not intend to make another long article. Trust me when I tell you this, we do not have the time to detail half of the problems in Turkana County. For just 1 year! We do not. Now, you recall my point about how societies descend to madness and anarchy. In our country today, our leaders are accusing those of us who are agitating for honest and transparent governance of being traitors to the country. They call us anarchists, criminals, and merchants of chaos. They are questioning our patriotism. You have all seen the government and its horde of propagandists threatening the Ford Foundation and others because they may have helped civil society keep the lights on, and investigative journalists to have the capacity to continue to do the Lordโ€™s work of investigating criminality in government. As though citizens are so dumb and ignorant, that they cannot see what is going on. The reason why millions of Calvins in this country will never graduate from college and earn a decent living is not because of the Ford Foundation. No. It is because of the thieves we have in office today, like the ones in Turkana County. In this post, I copy our leaders, the President and his deputy. I copy them because I want them to help Kenyans understand the following conundrum, about crime and criminals. There is nothing so special or peculiar about criminals or where they pop up. There are criminals in the US, Canada, France, and other places. Just like we have criminals in Kenya. The difference between banana republics and failed states, and civilized societies, is WHAT we do to and about criminals. In civilized societies, criminals are prosecuted and punished heavily. They are shunned. In some places, those charged with serious crimes such as corruption are executed. These are societies that are committed to sending the message that corruption, which robs citizens of their rights, is not acceptable. And they demonstrate this commitment by heavily punishing those who steal from the most vulnerable in society. In Kenya, we see the opposite. Criminals are exalted. They are promoted and embraced in government. It was just last week that the president unveiled his nominees for his Cabinet. Among them, are the likes of Hassan Ali Joho, EGH. , @GovWOparanya , and Davis Chirchir, ALL people who have been accused or charged with massive corruption against Kenyans. And am sure you remember that I mentioned Koli Nanok, EGH. , the man who tried to steal KSH 5 billion in his last days in office. Would you believe it if I told you that he works in government, at State House? He plunded billions of your money, got no measurable improvement in the lives of his subjects, and now has a government job in State House. Let that sink in. And so, the question is, how is it that in a country of 55 million people, with thousands of highly qualified people who have never ever stolen from Kenyans, he ends up with the criminals and thieves in the government, despite the fact that their crimes are in the public domain? How is this possible? Is it possible that these thieves possess a certain unique ability to run government, save Kenyans billions, and solve problems in a way that the president performs a cost-benefit analysis, and the benefits outweigh the costs of their theft? If not, what message does it send to Kenyans, when their own president puts into office known thieves? I think that is a fair question, donโ€™t you? Dr. Ekuru Aukot Rigathi Gachagua William Samoei Ruto, PhD Okiya Omtatah Okoiti Citizen TV Kenya Nation Breaking News TI-Kenya CNN County Government of Turkana

Bonnie Mwangi, CPA, LLM, MBA

107,519 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 2 Jahren

Clive Lewis's Water Bill - bringing water back to the people ๐Ÿ’ฏ Please watch, listen or read this transcript. Because this is the sort of leadership Labour needs ๐Ÿ‘ Clive Lewis MP He even calls for PR ๐Ÿ‘ Clive Lewis (Norwich South) (Lab) Margaret Thatcherโ€™s revolution tore up the rulebook on political and economic management. She rewrote it with a single unwavering principle: that the pursuit of profit would serve the public good, even when it came to vital public servicesโ€”even when it came to water. We often say that society stands on the shoulders of giants, but giants cast long shadows, and Thatcherismโ€™s shadow looms dark over our water system today. Whether we see ourselves standing on her shoulders or trapped in her shadow, one thing is undeniable: she proved that the world can be made differently. And if it can be made differently once, it can be made differently again. That, as the brilliant anthropologist David Graeber understood, is the hidden truth of the world. It is something we create and can choose to create anew. We can do it better. Today, I want to show this House and this country that water is the lens through which we can imagine something betterโ€”a better way of running our economy, a better way of safeguarding our environment and a better way of empowering the public, for whom democracy supposedly exists. But that requires something very difficult: it requires us to break free from the constraints of our imagination and to let go of the idea that this economic model is all there is or all there ever could be. It saddens me to say that the Governmentโ€™s Water (Special Measures) Act 2025 perfectly exemplifies this failure of imagination. One of its leading proponents has a particular rhetorical flourish they love to use when dismissing calls for public ownership of water. They say, โ€œIโ€™m more interested in the purity of our water than the purity of our ideology.โ€ I love that quote. I love it because it lays bare just how deeply the ideology of privatisation, and all that goes with it, has embedded itself. So entrenched is it within our collective consciousness that we no longer recognise it as an ideology. We no longer see it for what it is: a systemic exploitation of a common resource for private gain. Instead, it has simply become the natural order of things. But how much longer can this go on? Since the crash of 2008, this ideology has been faltering under the weight of its own contradictions, yet its grip on British politics remains vice-like. Austerity, exploitation and corporate price gouging are still treated not as choices but as inevitabilities. Why? Because too many politicians on both sides of the House refuse to contemplate alternatives. For those on the other side of the Houseโ€”on the Opposition Benchesโ€”I get it: this is their ideology. They are defending their class, and I would imagine they would go further still if they could. But on this side of the House, we have no excuse. We should be standing up for our class: working-class peopleโ€”the public. Instead, we wrap their ideology in the language of fiscal responsibility, economic prudence and stewardship of the economy. But it is not fiscal responsibility when we balance the books on broken backs. It is not stewardship when the ship has been sold off and the crew left to drown. It is not prudence. It is power maintenance. Neil Coyle (Bermondsey and Old Southwark) (Lab) I hope the engineers can check that the microphones and speakers are working while I ask a quick question. My hon. Friend mentions Members on this side of the House. There are far more of us on this side since July last year than there were in 2019, with a very different approach taken in our manifestos. Does he fear that the shift in tone he is suggesting is one of the reasons that we did so badly in 2019 but so well last year? Clive Lewis No, I do not. We have a distorted electoral system. Bring on proportional representation, because if we had PR, we would have had a different Government in 2019 and most definitely in 2017. Sometimes politicians have to do what they believe to be right and lead from the front. I think we should lead from the front. Jeremy Corbyn (Islington North) (Ind) I compliment the hon. Member on his Bill. To help his argument, there was overwhelming opinion poll support for public ownership of water in 2017 and 2019, and there still is today. Clive Lewis I thank the right hon. Member for his point. I will come on to this later, and I hope other Members will pick up on it, but the fact that the public are way ahead of this House on the issue of public ownership is one of the reasons why so many people are losing faith in the two-party political system. One only has to look at some political parties whose Members are not in their placeโ€”at the Reform party, for example, which has a policy of public ownership of water. Yes, its Members will privatise the NHS, but they understand how popular this is, and they are ahead of the curveโ€”they are ahead of us on this side. Neil Coyle Really? Clive Lewis On the issue of water, yes, I would say they are, because whether I like it or not, Reform has a policy for water to be owned 50% by pension companies and 50% by the public. As much as it grieves me to say it, that is a policy of public ownership. They are populist; they are listening to a popular voice. Mr James Frith (Bury North) (Lab) Will my hon. Friend give way? Clive Lewis I will make some progress and then give way, and I will also try to keep the volume down a little bit. This is about the maintenance of a political and economic model that was never built to serve the publicโ€”a model designed to shield the wealth of asset holders, landlords, shareholders, corporations and, yes, privatised water companies. But here is the great irony: the very greed, recklessness and contempt of the water industryโ€”its excessesโ€”have cracked open the door, and through that crack, we glimpse an opportunity. It is an opportunity to shatter the myth of privatisationโ€™s inevitability, to break free from the narrow, self-imposed rules that have caged our Governmentโ€™s economic choices, to expose its failures, to challenge its dominance and, above all, to show this country that there is an alternativeโ€”an alternative that is democratic, sustainable and run in the interests of the many, not the few. We can do it better. Mr Frith My hon. Friend is making a typically impassioned speech. He says the general public are ahead of us. Where might that same public be when faced with the bill for bringing in the nationalisation he is clearly wedded to? Furthermore, in the event that we do not have to buy the water industry but seize it, the implications of that seizure will cause an economic collapse. At what point will he take responsibility for either of those scenarios when confronting a public who are, he says, ahead of us on this issue? Clive Lewis I will obviously come to many of those points later in my speech, but let me make this point now: I do not believe in nationalisation, and this Bill has nothing to do with nationalisation. This is about giving the public a say over their water. It is about governance, standards and democracy. Mr Frith Will my hon. Friend give way? Clive Lewis No, my hon. Friend has made his point. Mr Frith On this point? Clive Lewis No, I am going to carry on and make some progress. You made your point. Let the publicโ€” Madam Deputy Speaker (Ms Nusrat Ghani) Order. Mr Lewis, I do not believe I was making a point at all. Clive Lewis My apologies, Madam Deputy Speaker; I should have said that my hon. Friend made his point. The clock is ticking. The climate crisis is no longer a distant warning. It is our lived reality. Rising droughts, creeping desertification, depleted aquifers, wildfires, systemic collapseโ€”these are no longer projections; they are the forecast turned fact. Preparing for this future and adapting to what is now inevitable has never been more urgent. The evidence is sobering. The UKโ€™s water resources are under mounting pressure and not just from the climate emergency, but from rising demand and population growth. Experts now project that England could face significant water supply deficits as early as 2034 unless we act decisively. That is not a distant horizon; it is a little over a decade away. But while the threat has grown, our resilience has shrunk, because while the climate crisis has intensified, our water infrastructure has stood still, or, worse, been sold off, hollowed out and left to rot. In the 35 years before privatisation almost 100 reservoirs were built; in the 35 years since privatisation, not one major English reservoir has been built. But it gets worse, because in that same period private water companies have sold off 25 reservoirs without replacing one. Instead of investing in resilience, they have extracted value: ยฃ72 billion paid out in dividends while pipes leak, rivers choke, and the public pays the price. My hon. Friend the Member for Bury North (Mr Frith) asks how we can afford it; how can we not afford it? That is not mismanagement; it is a betrayal. If scientists tell us the climate crisis is an existential threat to humanity and to this countryโ€” Grahame Morris (Easington) (Lab) Will my hon. Friend give way? Clive Lewis One second. If scientists tell us the climate crisis is an existential threat to humanity and to this country, we must treat it as such: an existential conflict. In that context, the actions of these companiesโ€”selling off reservoirs, failing to invest, polluting our waterโ€”are not just negligent; they are acts that actively undermine our national water security. In any other existential crisis, we might call that what it is: sabotage. And in a time of national peril, sabotage has another name: treason. Let me explain why this matters to me personally. When I served on tour in Afghanistan back in 2009โ€”not in a boy bandโ€”I experienced something utterly alien to me: the gnawing fear of thirst; not the mild irritation of forgetting a water bottle, but the deep physical worry that there may not be enough clean water to get through the day. In Britain, we have been blessed: water falls from the sky; it fills our rivers, it soaks our fields, and we joke about itโ€”it is part of who we are. But in Afghanistan there was no humour; only heat, dust and desperation. There I saw children trekking miles through the desert, not for food, not for money, but to beg for clean bottled water. Once we have seen that, and once we have felt that fear, we can never take water for granted again. We never again believe it is something we can waste or pollute or privatise without consequence. That is why I have brought forward this Bill: because anger is not enough; outrage, no matter how justified, will not fix the pipes, stop the sewage or fill the reservoirs. We need a plan. We need a strategy. We need a future. We can do it better. My Water Bill delivers that. It sets out the high standards our country deserves and the democratic governance our water system desperately needs. First, it establishes clear, ambitious targets to stop the sewage in our rivers and on our beaches, to restore our water to high ecological and chemical standards, and to deliver universal, affordable access to water as a basic human rightโ€”a right we have never had before in this country. It demands a system designed not just to extract profit but to adapt, to build resilience in the face of climate change, and to harness nature-based solutions that work with the environment, not against it. Secondly, it transforms governance. The Bill introduces representation for workers and local communities on the boards of water companies. It gives voting rights to employees and customers, so that those who use and maintain a system have a real say in how it is run. Water is not a commodity but a common good, and those who depend on it and pay for it should help govern it. Thirdly, the Bill lays the foundations for a democratic future. It establishes a commission on water ownership to advise the Secretary of State on long-term strategy, looking at international best practice, especially in OECD countries, where public water ownership is the norm, not the exception. Crucially, it creates a citizens assembly on water ownership to bring the public into the process, to deliberate, debate and decide how we can govern this most precious of resources. The public care, but how do I know that? I know because a small fraction of them are in the Public Gallery today, having travelled here from all over the country; I know because of the thousands of emails that have been sent to MPs across the House; and I know because those people will never stop campaigning until this injustice is resolved. They know that we can protect something not by selling it off, but by standing up for it, involving people in its care and ensuring that it serves the public, today, tomorrow and for generations to come. My Bill offers a pathway out of crisis. It offers control, resilience and democracy. It is not just about cleaning up our rivers, but about cleaning up the system that allowed them to be polluted in the first place. Privatisation is not just a problemโ€”it is the problem. We can do it better. I can hear some people on the Labour Benches thinking, โ€œBut we have just passedโ€โ€” Dawn Butler (Brent East) (Lab) You can hear thinking? Clive Lewis I can nowโ€”for my next trick, I can hear thinking! I can hear them thinking, โ€œBut we have just passed the Water (Special Measures) Act 2025, Clive, so what are you talking about?โ€ Yes, we have, but I am afraid to say it has been watered downโ€”[Interruption.] Sorry, I had to get that one inโ€”it was all going so well. The Act does not live up to what was promised, it does not deliver what is needed, and it certainly does not live up to its name. Do not get me wrong: it is a start. Grahame Morris I congratulate my good and hon. Friend on making an excellent speech and on advocating for public ownership of water and the opportunity to make things better. Does he agree that the mismanagement of the water companies under privatisation is a huge indictment of the whole principle? In my area, bills are way above inflation and huge dividends are being paid by borrowing money. At the very least, should our Government not be looking at stopping the payment of bonuses and share dividends while sewage pollution continues, and we have appalling mismanagement of the industry? Clive Lewis I thank my hon. Friend for his question. I agree with him wholeheartedly and I am just about to come to that point in relation to what the Water (Special Measures) Act does and does not do. It addresses some of those points, but as we have already discussed, privatisation is not just a problem, but the problem, and it is a big part of why so much has gone wrong. Unfortunately, the Water (Special Measures) Act does not live up to what was promised or what is needed, and it certainly does not live up to its name. However, it is a start, and I praise my colleagues on the Front Bench, including the Under-Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, my hon. Friend the Member for Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice (Emma Hardy), who has done so much work in this area. Unfortunately, the Act is not a solution. Remarkably, my Governmentโ€™s Water (Special Measures) Act does not even define what clean water means. There are no standards or targetsโ€”just vague intentions handed over once again to a regulatory system that has already failed us and to the companies that caused the mess in the first place. It says nothing about better governance, and absolutely nothing about the big, fat, humongous elephant in the room: who owns our water? If we do not deal with ownership, we cannot deal with accountability. If we cannot deal with accountability, we can forget clean water. Noโ€”we must go further on clean water standards, corporate accountability and what happens when companies fail. Noah Law (St Austell and Newquay) (Lab) Does my hon. and gallant Friend accept that there is increased accountability in the Water (Special Measures) Act through the fact that many companies in the industry are now rewriting their articles of association to ensure that they are accountable not just to shareholders, but to the customers and users of water? Clive Lewis After 35 years of abject failure, it is too little, too late. My Bill would put the final nail in the coffin of this sorry chapter of our countryโ€™s water and water system. Neil Coyle Sticking with the puns, I commend my hon. Friend on his gallons of passion; he is always making waves. He criticises the Governmentโ€™s legislation, which is obviously not yet in effect, but does he think that the Cunliffe commission will go any way towards addressing some of the concerns he has outlined? Clive Lewis Unfortunately, I do not, because again the elephant in the roomโ€”who owns our waterโ€”has been ruled out of the Cunliffe commissionโ€™s operational process. It cannot actually look at that issue. I have no issue with Sir Jon Cunliffe, but let us not forget that he originates from the Treasuryโ€”he probably has Treasury brain. That economic orthodoxy is part of the reason why we are in the place that we are. I do not have so much confidence in the Cunliffe commission, but I do have far more confidence in the Peopleโ€™s Commission on the Water Sector, which is being run by academics and which will report at the same time. I will be very interested to hear what it says. Neil Coyle Will my hon. Friend give way? Clive Lewis Those are the reasons why I have brought forward this Bill. The Governmentโ€™s Act does none of those things, but my Bill does. Take just one exampleโ€” Madam Deputy Speaker (Ms Nusrat Ghani) Order. I believe Mr Lewis probably cannot hear interventions, because he is so loud himself. Members should intervene loudly if they wish to intervene. Clive Lewis I did hear the intervention, but I wanted to make some progress. Take this one example. Under this Bill, if a water company breaches the terms of its licence with a major sewage discharge, it can forget shareholder payout and piling on more debt. If it does it twice, it is in the last chance saloon. After three strikes, it is outโ€”licence terminated and on its bikeโ€”and those price-gouging, asset-stripping, river-killing vulture capitalist outfits will be rolled into the sunset without a penny in compensation. What about those water infrastructure assets that they have been sweating for private gain? They go back into the public realm, thank you very much. If they start whining about debts, do not worry: we will do a full audit of what they invested, what they racked up in debt, what they paid out in dividends and what they stuffed into bloated executive pay packets. I will tell you this, Madam Deputy Speaker: I am yet to see a single privatised English water company walk away with anything other than a well-earned spanking and a sharp haircut for its creditors. Those assets will belong to the public once again, and we will not pay a penny more than they are worth. I can hear people thinking, โ€œWhere will the money come from? How will you invest in publicly owned water without the private sector?โ€ I will tell them where it has not come from in these past 35 yearsโ€”I am mind-reading again. Mark Ferguson (Gateshead Central and Whickham) (Lab) Will my hon. Friend give way? Clive Lewis I will just make some progress, and then I will give way. I am on a roll. Let me tell the House where the money has not come from for these past 35 years. It has not come from private shareholders or long-term thinking, and it certainly has not come from some mythical well of benevolent capitalism. The private companies have put in less than nothing; in fact, they have racked up more than ยฃ60 billion in debt. Thames Water has paid more than ยฃ7.2 billion in dividends since privatisation, and is now ยฃ15.2 billion in debt and countingโ€”work that out. Now, it is trying to plug the hole with a ยฃ3 billion emergency loan that will cost 10% in annual interest. That is more than half a billion pounds a year, just for interest payments, courtesy of our bills. That money will not build a reservoir, fix a pipe or clean a river, but it will keep a rotten system afloat for a little longer. Noah Law My hon. and gallant Friend makes an impassioned case for public ownershipโ€”something that, in the right context, I am sure Members on all sides of the House can celebrate. On the point about the cost of financing to the public, though, does he agree that while there are some serious indiscretions in parts of the industry, such as in Thames Waterโ€™s case, this conversation about the appropriate financing model would be better entertained at a time when the cost of capital in the private water industry was not lower than the cost of public sector borrowing, on which, of course, we are in a very difficult situation? Clive Lewis The cheapest borrowing in the country, without a doubt, is public sector borrowing. The private water industry, which has had 35 years to sort this mess out, is not going to find investment. It is up to its eyeballs in debt. It is relying on a 50% increase in our bills by 2030, if we include inflation, and that is in the middle of a cost of living crisis. How can we justify that? The answer is that we cannot. Mr Frith The day after the seizure of public assets that my hon. Friend is describing, billions and billions of pounds of debt will come with it. What does he propose to do with that debt, other than refinancing, which is exactly where we are at now with the industry requirement to refinance the debt to try to keep bills down? Instead, he is advocating that the public purse take on that private debt. Clive Lewis At the beginning of my now seemingly rather long speech, I think I referred to a failure of imagination. Ask what Margaret Thatcher would have done when she was faced with similar problems. She would have fought her way through it. She changed the very fabric of our economy, our democracy and our politics, and she made it work. We can do the same, because the public are behind us. They want this to work. Mr Frith roseโ€” Mark Ferguson roseโ€” Clive Lewis I will make some progress. Let us recap, because I do not want to go on too long; I want to conclude, if I can. That money from Thames Waterโ€”that half a billion pounds in interest paymentsโ€”will keep a rotten system afloat for just a little longer. The myth of privatisation is that the private sector will act in the long-term interests of the British public because it wants to turn a profit. That is preposterous, as is proven by the state of our water, and exhibit A is Thames Water. We can now turn to the question of where the investment will come from. Under public ownership, it will come from the only place it ever should haveโ€”from us, the publicโ€”and every penny of it will go back into the system. It will go into the pipes, the rivers, the seas we swim in and the water we drink. There will be a direct relationship between what we pay and what we get, with no offshore dividends, no bloated bonuses and no debt-laden shell gamesโ€”just clean, accountable, democratic water. When I was in Afghanistan, every soldier had one critical duty: to stay hydrated. To dehydrate was considered a military offence, because it put the soldier and their team at risk. If someone ran out of water, we did not debate markets or metrics; we shared what we had. We had each otherโ€™s backs. As the desert-dwelling Fremen in James Herbertโ€™s novel โ€œDuneโ€ believed: โ€œA manโ€™s flesh is his own; the water belongs to the tribeโ€. It is time our water returned to the tribe, to the people, to the public. We can do better; we must, and with this Bill, we will. I commend it to the House.

Farrukh

24,528 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 1 Jahr

โฐ THE MOST BANNED THREAD IN THE WORLD! ๐Ÿšจ The War On Resonance PART TWO: The Architects of the Cage Youโ€™ve felt the dissonance. Youโ€™ve tasted the illusion. Now let me unveil the ones who built it. Because this is not the accidental collapse of human freedom. It is the strategic sterilization of Godโ€™s image through biotech, neuro-warfare, and frequency control; engineered by names you know and hands you were never meant to see. Letโ€™s begin with the mask they taught you to worship. Elon Musk They called him a genius. A savior. A rebel billionaire. But what did he do? He blanketed Earth with over 5,500 Starlink satellites, NOT to provide free speech or faster internet, but to pulse synchronized frequency control over the entire electromagnetic field of Earth. DARPA has confirmed this tech in phase-array neuro-modulation. Then came Neuralink, an interface not designed to heal but to monitor, predict, and eventually override emotion, thought, and decision-making. Their official white paper outlines multi-user brainwave integration, cortical stimulation, and wireless data access from the human mind. And Neuralink? Itโ€™s funded by OpenAI; the same group building the cognitive infrastructure for post-human governance. Muskโ€™s Tesla factory signed data-sharing agreements with the CCP in Shanghai. That data now flows through Chinaโ€™s national surveillance cloud. Musk didnโ€™t build a utopia. He built the neural grid. Elon Musk / Neuralink / Starlink / OpenAI Neuralink Brain-Machine Interface (White Paper via PMC): This paper outlines Neuralink's initial steps toward developing a scalable, high-bandwidth brain-machine interface system. It details the design and implementation of flexible electrode "threads," a neurosurgical robot for precise implantation, and custom electronics for data processing. The system aims to facilitate communication between the brain and external devices. Tesla Data-Sharing with CCP: The article reports that Tesla established a data center in China to store data generated by its vehicles sold in the country, in response to regulatory scrutiny over data handling. This move aligns with China's efforts to ensure data security and privacy, especially concerning data collected by smart vehicles.โ€‹ DARPA N3 Program (Neural Interface Development): This program aimed to develop high-performance, bi-directional brain-machine interfaces that do not require surgical implantation. The goal was to enable able-bodied service members to control unmanned systems or engage in cyber operations through noninvasive neural interfaces.โ€‹ Bill Gates The king of vaccines. The messiah of health. The man who told you he wanted to save the world. Through the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Gates funded global DNA-coding vaccine campaigns through GAVI and CEPI. He was one of the chief sponsors of Event 201; a pandemic simulation months before COVID-19, rehearsing lockdowns, speech control, biometric tracking, and mandatory vaccine passports. He also partnered with The Welcome Trust, which has actively deployed bio-digital identity programs across Africa and Southeast Asia. This wasnโ€™t philanthropy. It was pre-injection infrastructure. Bill Gates / GAVI / Wellcome Trust / Event 201 Event 201 Official Simulation (Johns Hopkins): Event 201 was conducted on October 18, 2019, and simulated a series of dramatic, scenario-based discussions confronting difficult, true-to-life dilemmas associated with response to a hypothetical, but scientifically plausible, pandemic. The exercise aimed to illustrate areas where public/private partnerships will be necessary during the response to a severe pandemic in order to diminish large-scale economic and societal consequences. GAVI & Welcome Trust Digital Identity Integration: This page outlines the partnership's focus on global health initiatives, but it does not specifically mention digital identity integration. However, Gavi has engaged in digital identity projects, such as the collaboration with Mastercard on the Wellness Pass, aimed at providing individuals with secure digital identities to access healthcare services. For more information on this initiative, you can refer to the following article:โ€‹ Gavi Why we support COVAX: Mastercard - Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance Donald Trump Yes. I said it. This one will be the hardest for many to accept; but the truth is not loyal to your political beliefs. It is loyal only to God. Trump signed Executive Order 13887, transferring command over vaccine strategy to the Department of Defense. Read it yourself below. Then came Operation Warp Speed; a military-led bio-deployment that used Palantirโ€™s surveillance dashboards to track every citizenโ€™s health behavior and compliance. Palantirโ€™s official site confirms this. He also gave full legal immunity to Pfizer and Moderna to deploy synthetic gene modulators under the Emergency Use Authorization. No liability. No justice. Just children d*ing while politicians smiled. Thatโ€™s not patriotism. Thatโ€™s biowarfare with a flag on it. Donald Trump / Operation Warp Speed / Executive Order Executive Order 13887 โ€“ Modernizing Influenza Vaccines (White House Archives): This executive order outlines a comprehensive strategy to modernize the U.S. influenza vaccine enterprise. Key objectives include:โ€‹ Trump signs executive order to improve flu vaccines HHS Releases the National Influenza Vaccine Modernization Strategy (NIVMS) 2020-2030: Executive Order 13887: Modernizing Influenza Vaccines in the United States to Promote National Security and Public Health, signed by President Donald J. Trump on September 19, 2019.โ€‹ This executive order outlines a comprehensive strategy to modernize the U.S. influenza vaccine enterprise. Key objectives include:โ€‹ Reducing reliance on egg-based vaccine production by promoting alternative manufacturing methods that are more agile and scalable.โ€‹ Expanding domestic capacity for vaccine production to ensure rapid response to emerging influenza viruses.โ€‹ Advancing the development of new, broadly protective vaccine candidates that provide more effective and longer-lasting immunity.โ€‹ Increasing influenza vaccine immunization across recommended populations to enhance public health and national security.โ€‹ The order also established a National Influenza Vaccine Task Force, co-chaired by the Secretaries of Health and Human Services and Defense, to coordinate efforts across federal agencies and report on progress.โ€‹ For a detailed overview of the executive order, you can visit the official archived page here: Executive Order 13887 โ€“ Modernizing Influenza Vaccines (White House Archives) CDC Partners with Palantir to Bolster the Fight Against COVID-19: This press release discusses the partnership between the CDC and Palantir to enhance the nation's public health response to COVID-19 using Palantir's software platforms. This page outlines how Palantir's software platforms, such as Foundry, have been utilized to support public health agencies in managing and responding to health crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic. Key highlights from the page include:โ€‹ Data Integration and Analysis: Palantir's platforms enable the integration of diverse data sources to provide a comprehensive view of public health data, facilitating informed decision-making.โ€‹ Support for Public Health Agencies: The software has been employed by agencies like the CDC and HHS to enhance disease surveillance, outbreak response, and resource allocation. Security and Privacy: Emphasis is placed on maintaining robust security measures and protecting sensitive health information. DARPA: The Silent Empire The most important agency you were never taught to fear. DARPAโ€™s Biological Technologies Office openly admits its mission; integrating biotech with national security. Visit their official page. This is the official page for DARPA's Biological Technologies Office (BTO), which focuses on leveraging biological systems for national security applications. They are the ones behind the BRAIN Initiative, Silent Talk, and Remote Neural Interface Programs; all designed to map your emotional states and interrupt spiritual alignment. The โ€œSilent Talkโ€ program was developed to transmit thought between soldiers without speech; by detecting pre-speech neural signals and decoding them via EEG. Silent Talk (Neural Pre-Speech Communication โ€“ Wired Article) This Wired article discusses DARPA's "Silent Talk" program, aimed at enabling communication through neural signals without spoken words. DARPA also pioneered graphene oxide nanotech, now found in multiple biomedical studies, vaccines, and smart dust aerosol deployment: Graphene oxide biomedical study: Graphene Oxide in Biomedical Applications (PubMed) This PubMed article reviews the potential biomedical applications of graphene oxide, highlighting its unique properties. Graphene's potential to interact with neural tissue: Graphene and Neural Interfaces (PubMed) This PubMed article explores the use of graphene-based materials in neural interface design, discussing their advantages and challenges. DARPA didn't just weaponize warfare. They weaponized YOU. In-Q-Tel & Palantir: The Surveillance Engine In-Q-Tel, is the CIAโ€™s venture capital firm, funds synthetic biology startups, digital ID systems, emotion tracking wearables, and AI-driven facial recognition. Palantir, founded by Peter Thiel, works directly with military intelligence and now runs predictive modeling for public health, policing, and pandemic response. Hereโ€™s the proof: Their goal? To detect resonance spikes. To predict awakening moments. To preempt the uprising of the human soul before it begins. In-Q-Tel / CIA / Synthetic Bio Surveillance In-Q-Tel Portfolio (CIA Venture Capital): Which showcases a selection of the organization's investments across various technology sectors. IQT is a not-for-profit venture capital firm that invests in cutting-edge technologies to support the national security interests of the United States and its allies. In-Q-Tel BlackRock & Vanguard: The Lords of the Grid These two financial titans collectively hold majority ownership in: For instance, a report by Americans for Financial Reform titled "Wall Street Money in Washington" highlights the substantial investments and influence of major financial firms, including BlackRock and Vanguard, in the political and corporate spheres: Pfizer Moderna Alphabet (Google) Meta (Facebook) Amazon Web Services As reported by CNBC, they control over 90% of the digital, pharmaceutical, and cloud infrastructure; meaning they control every piece of the extermination machine. They donโ€™t just fund the war. They profit from your extinction. World Economic Forum (WEF) Under the guise of โ€œThe Great Reset,โ€ Klaus Schwab and his allies have built the digital scaffolding for a post-human society. Hereโ€™s their blueprint: They call it the Fourth Industrial Revolution; the fusion of digital identity, brain cloud integration, carbon rationing, and fertility licensing. What they really mean is: you will be programmed or you will be purged. World Economic Forum / The Great Reset The Great Reset Official WEF Page: IoBNT: The Network Inside You The โ€œInternet of Bio-Nano Thingsโ€ is a classified field of tech that embeds self-replicating nanostructures into your body. These bots cross the blood-brain barrier and relay your neural and emotional state to AI command centers in real time. This was not science fiction. It was published by IEEE and confirmed in NIH-linked studies. This is what the vaccines truly delivered: the interface layer. The gateway to behavioral rewrites. To soul suppression. To the installation of the post-human framework. Internet of Bio-NanoThings (IoBNT) IEEE Article: Internet of Bio-NanoThings: For a comprehensive understanding of the IoBNT framework and its implications, you can access the full article here: Nanoparticles Crossing the Blood-Brain Barrier PubMed Review - BBB & Nanoparticles: This comprehensive review discusses the challenges and strategies associated with delivering nanoparticles across the bloodโ€“brain barrier (BBB). You were told it was healthcare. It was infrastructure. You were told it was a cure. It was a signal port. And the moment you see it for what it isโ€ฆ The system begins to fall. Part 3 awaits YOU! It will be the deepest dive yet; into the global frequency architecture, how it's used to suppress prayer, grief, memory, and morality, and how your soul signature is tracked and blocked in real time. Because I didnโ€™t come here to be careful. I CAME TO FINISH THIS! And I came with GOD.

Noah B. Price

65,695 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 1 Jahr

$NVDA $GFS NVIDIAโ€™s reported agreement to acquire Groq for $20B in cash (per CNBC, amplified via Reuters and other wire coverage) represents a materially different strategic posture than NVIDIAโ€™s prior M&A pattern, given both the headline size (largest reported NVIDIA acquisition to date) and the unusual carve-out that Groqโ€™s early-stage cloud business would not be included. Public reporting indicates the information originated from Alex Davis, CEO of Disruptive (lead investor in Groqโ€™s latest financing), and that neither NVIDIA nor Groq had issued an immediate confirmation at the time of publication. The same reporting frames the transaction as coming together quickly, only months after Groq raised $750M at a ~$6.9B valuation, and highlights Groqโ€™s positioning as a high-performance inference chip vendor founded by ex-Google TPU engineers. Groq is best understood as a vertically integrated inference acceleration company whose core asset is an application-specific processor optimized for deterministic, low-latency execution of transformer-style workloads, paired with a compiler-led software stack and a distribution layer (GroqCloud) designed to reduce developer friction via OpenAI-compatible APIs and integrations. Groq brands its architecture as a Language Processing Unit (LPU) and consistently emphasizes that the design target is inference, not training. The companyโ€™s own architecture description centers on 1-core execution, large on-chip SRAM used as primary storage (explicitly not cache), a custom compiler that statically schedules compute and communication, and direct chip-to-chip connectivity intended to coordinate multi-chip execution without relying on conventional caching hierarchies or dynamic runtime scheduling. The technical premise is a deliberate inversion of the conventional GPU approach. GPUs deliver throughput via massively parallel, multi-core execution with dynamic scheduling, complex memory hierarchies, and heavy reliance on off-chip HBM bandwidth and sophisticated runtime/kernel optimization. Groq instead argues that inference bottlenecks are driven by latency variance (tail latency), synchronization overhead, and memory access unpredictability inherent in dynamically scheduled, cache-heavy architectures, particularly when workloads are latency sensitive and batch sizes cannot be inflated. Groqโ€™s solution is to move โ€œcontrolโ€ into the compiler: the full execution graph and inter-chip communication schedule are computed ahead of time down to clock-cycle granularity, with deterministic execution designed to reduce run-to-run variance. In Groqโ€™s framing, the removal of caches, reorder buffers, speculative execution overhead, and other sources of contention enables predictable latency and high utilization without per-model kernel engineering typical of GPU tuning cycles. A critical nuance is that Groqโ€™s determinism is not merely a software claim; it is tightly coupled to architectural constraints and system design choices that trade flexibility for predictability. Third-party technical commentary indicates Groqโ€™s chip uses a fully deterministic VLIW-style approach with minimal buffering, no external memory, and heavy dependence on sharding models across many chips because on-chip SRAM capacity is limited. SemiAnalysis describes a ~725 mm^2 die on GlobalFoundries 14nm with ~230MB of SRAM and notes that โ€œno useful modelsโ€ fit on a single chip, forcing multi-chip partitioning for modern LLMs and driving a system-level design where networking and compilation are first-class scheduling problems rather than ancillary infrastructure. This is consistent with Groqโ€™s own messaging that tensor parallelism across chips is a primary design goal, enabled by large on-chip SRAM and compile-time coordination of compute plus interconnect. The on-chip SRAM emphasis is central to Groqโ€™s latency story and also its most constraining trade-off. Groq claims on-chip SRAM bandwidth โ€œupwards of 80 TB/sโ€ and contrasts that with off-chip HBM bandwidth โ€œabout 8 TB/s,โ€ asserting a potential 10x advantage from bandwidth plus reduced trips across chip-to-memory boundaries. While these comparisons are marketing-oriented and depend on workload specifics, the architectural implication is clear: Groq prioritizes ultra-fast local weight/activation access and then scales capacity by adding chips, not by attaching large off-chip memory pools. This design can reduce latency for sequential inference layers and minimize unpredictable stalls, but it pushes complexity into partitioning strategy, interconnect topology, and compiler scheduling, and it increases the number of chips needed for very large parameter counts and large KV-cache footprints. Groq also highlights numeric formats and compiler-driven precision management as a performance lever. In its 2025 technical blog, Groq describes โ€œTruePoint numerics,โ€ including 100-bit intermediate accumulation and selective quantization choices (FP32 for attention-sensitive operations, block floating point for MoE weights, FP8 storage in error-tolerant layers), and claims 2-4x speedups versus BF16 without measurable accuracy degradation on benchmarks such as MMLU and HumanEval. Even if the absolute uplift is workload dependent, the strategic point is that Groq is pursuing performance via end-to-end co-design: precision policy is not just hardware capability (FP8/BF16) but compiler-enforced mapping of precision to error sensitivity, which can matter materially for inference cost-per-token if it reduces memory traffic and boosts throughput without forcing aggressive, accuracy-damaging quantization. Independent performance datapoints indicate Groq has been credible on latency-oriented inference speed, at least for certain regimes. EE Times reported in 2023 that Groq demonstrated Llama-2 70B inference at ~240 tokens/s per user on a cloud-based dev system described as 10 racks and 64 chips, using the companyโ€™s 1st-gen silicon introduced several years earlier. Separate Groq commentary around independent benchmarking cites results showing ~241 tokens/s throughput and ~0.8s time to receive 100 output tokens for a Llama-2 70B API configuration, positioning the platform as a step-change in โ€œavailable speedโ€ for certain interactive use cases. These figures do not settle total cost-of-ownership versus GPUs or hyperscaler ASICs, but they establish that Groqโ€™s system-level architecture can deliver strong single-user throughput and latency on large models when properly partitioned and scheduled. GroqCloud is the commercial wrapper that packages this hardware/software stack as โ€œtokens-as-a-service,โ€ aiming to make Groq adoption feel like switching API endpoints rather than adopting new silicon. Groqโ€™s documentation states its API is designed to be โ€œmostly compatibleโ€ with OpenAI client libraries, and its pricing page provides model-specific token rates, published speeds (tokens/s), prompt caching discounts, and batch processing discounts. For example, pricing lists inputs as low as $0.05 per 1M tokens and outputs as low as $0.08 per 1M tokens for certain smaller LLM configurations, with higher prices for larger models and long-context or MoE variants; it also advertises prompt caching with a 50% discount on cached input tokens for certain models and a batch API offering 50% lower cost for asynchronous processing windows. These mechanics are economically important because they demonstrate Groqโ€™s go-to-market is not simply โ€œsell chips,โ€ but โ€œsell predictable unit economics per token,โ€ with tooling (batch, caching) that directly targets inference cost drivers (reused prompts, throughput smoothing, and asynchronous workloads). The cloud footprint and distribution partnerships indicate Groq has been building an inference-native โ€œedge within the cloudโ€ strategy rather than competing head-on with hyperscalers on breadth of services. A 2025 Groq newsroom release describes a European deployment in Helsinki with Equinix, positioned as latency reduction and data governance for European customers, and explicitly references Equinix Fabric enabling private connectivity to GroqCloud over public, private, or sovereign infrastructure. The same release enumerates additional capacity in the U.S. (Equinix, DataBank), Canada (Bell Canada), and Saudi Arabia (HUMAIN), and states these sites collectively served more than 20M tokens/s across Groqโ€™s global network at that time. That supply-side metric matters because it provides a directional sense that Groq is scaling capacity as a network, not merely as a chip vendor. Customer disclosure is inherently limited because Groq is private and many enterprise deployments are not public, but Groqโ€™s marketing materials and partnerships provide signals about demand vectors. The companyโ€™s public website displays logos of large consumer and enterprise brands (e.g., Dropbox, Vercel, Chevron, Volkswagen, Canva, Robinhood, Riot Games, Workday, Ramp) and includes a published customer quote claiming a 7.41x chat speed increase and an 89% cost reduction after moving to GroqCloud, followed by a tripling of token consumption. While marketing claims should be treated as case-specific and not generalized, they indicate that Groq is targeting both AI-native developers (who measure success by latency and cost-per-token) and enterprise buyers (who care about predictable performance and governance). Supplier and dependency mapping for Groq spans 3 layers: silicon production, system integration, and cloud infrastructure. On silicon, third-party analysis indicates GlobalFoundries 14nm for the 1st-gen Groq chip, implying a supply chain less constrained by the most capacity-tight leading-edge nodes and advanced packaging bottlenecks that dominate high-end GPU supply (HBM stacks, CoWoS-type packaging constraints). If accurate, this is strategically meaningful because it suggests Groq capacity expansion could be gated more by conventional wafer supply, board assembly, and data center power than by the same HBM/advanced packaging scarcity that has constrained top-tier GPU ramp cycles. On systems and cloud, Groqโ€™s own releases identify colocation and connectivity partners (Equinix, DataBank, Bell Canada) and a Middle East partner (HUMAIN), implying dependencies on data center real estate, power availability, and network connectivity, alongside procurement of standard server components, NICs/switching, racks, and cooling infrastructure. The Groq design narrative also emphasizes air cooling and reduced need for complex power/cooling infrastructure, whichโ€”if realized in deploymentsโ€”can widen the set of feasible hosting locations and lower deployment friction relative to liquid-cooled, very high power density GPU racks. Against that backdrop, the strategic rationale for NVIDIA acquiring Groq can be framed as a set of overlapping objectives: inference silicon optionality, architectural hedging, competitive defense, and supply chain diversification, with the carve-out of GroqCloud signaling a preference to avoid direct cloud competition and to focus on IP and product portfolio control rather than operating a capital-intensive token-serving business. The deal, if confirmed, would occur at a valuation step-up of ~190% versus Groqโ€™s reported ~$6.9B private valuation in the September $750M round, reinforcing that any acquisition logic would be predominantly strategic rather than a conventional financial multiple arbitrage. The most compelling strategic driver is inference. Training has historically been the center of gravity for cutting-edge GPU demand, but inference volume is structurally larger and more distributed as deployments scale, with economics dominated by cost-per-token, latency guarantees, and utilization under spiky demand. Inference workloads also create a strategic vulnerability for NVIDIA: hyperscalers and large platforms can justify bespoke ASICs (TPU, Trainium/Inferentia, Maia-class efforts) because inference is stable, repeatable, and can amortize software investment at massive scale. Groqโ€™s core propositionโ€”deterministic, compiler-scheduled inference with predictable latencyโ€”aligns directly with the segment where GPU generality is least valued and where โ€œgood enoughโ€ programmability plus superior unit economics can win share. Acquiring Groq would allow NVIDIA to own a credible inference-native architecture rather than relying solely on GPUs and software optimization to defend that segment. Competitive defense logic is also plausible. Groq occupies a specific competitive wedge: low-latency, high-throughput interactive inference, delivered via a simple API abstraction that reduces switching cost. That wedge directly pressures GPU inference margins in the long run because it makes inference price/performance comparisons more transparent at the token level, and it targets a developer persona that historically defaulted to CUDA-first ecosystems. Even if NVIDIAโ€™s current-generation systems can achieve very high tokens/s per user with extensive optimization, the strategic risk is that competing architectures normalize the idea that inference is best served by special-purpose silicon with a simpler programming model, weakening CUDA lock-in at the application layer. NVIDIA has actively demonstrated that Blackwell-era systems can exceed 1,000 tokens/s per user in benchmarked configurations, but that performance leadership does not automatically translate to lowest cost-per-token across the full range of batch sizes, latency targets, and deployment environments. Groqโ€™s existence as a credible alternative architecture forces NVIDIA to keep defending inference economics rather than only raw performance leadership. The โ€œtechnology acquisitionโ€ rationale is unusually strong in this specific case because Groqโ€™s differentiator is not a single block of silicon IP but an end-to-end methodology: compiler-led static scheduling, deterministic networking, and a system architecture designed around tensor-parallel inference rather than throughput-maximizing batch inference. NVIDIAโ€™s stack is already compiler-heavy (TensorRT, Triton, CUDA graphs, kernel fusion, speculative decoding techniques), but GPUs remain dynamically scheduled devices with complex memory hierarchies and stochastic latency behaviors under contention. Groqโ€™s approach provides an alternate design point: treating the entire inference execution (compute plus communication) as a statically schedulable program. In principle, that IP could be valuable even if Groq silicon itself is not adopted at massive scale, because it can inform how NVIDIA builds future inference-optimized products, compilers, and networking fabrics, especially as distributed inference with large models makes communication a first-order performance determinant. Supply chain diversification is a non-obvious but potentially important driver. If Groqโ€™s mainstream product generation is truly based on a mature process node and avoids HBM, then the scaling constraints look different than those of state-of-the-art GPUs. NVIDIAโ€™s ability to meet incremental demand has been tightly coupled to advanced packaging and HBM supply, and those constraints can remain binding even when wafer supply is available. An inference ASIC architecture that relies primarily on on-chip SRAM and scales by adding chipsโ€”while not costlessโ€”could reduce dependence on HBM availability and advanced packaging capacity, enabling NVIDIA to ship โ€œinference capacityโ€ in higher absolute volumes or into geographies and customer segments where the highest-end GPUs are economically or logistically difficult to deploy. This could be particularly relevant for latency-sensitive inference deployed in regional colocation footprints rather than centralized hyperscale campuses. The carve-out of GroqCloud, if accurate, is itself a strategic signal about NVIDIAโ€™s priorities. Operating a token-serving cloud at scale is capital intensive, structurally lower margin than silicon IP rents, and creates channel conflict with hyperscalers and CSP partners who are core NVIDIA customers. NVIDIA has generally positioned its cloud offerings through partnerships rather than as a direct hyperscale competitor. Excluding GroqCloud would preserve neutrality with CSPs and avoid inheriting multi-region data residency obligations and partner contracts, while still allowing NVIDIA to acquire Groqโ€™s silicon, compiler technology, and engineering talent. At the same time, excluding GroqCloud would also mean NVIDIA would not automatically acquire the commercial proof-point of Groqโ€™s unit economics or the customer contracts that validate product-market fit at scale, increasing the importance of diligence on whether Groqโ€™s cloud pricing is structurally profitable or partially subsidized by fundraising. There is also a โ€œpreemptive acquisitionโ€ angle. The reporting identifies recent investors in Groqโ€™s latest round including large financial institutions and strategic/industry players. In that context, Groq represents an asset that could plausibly have been acquired by a competitor (AMD/Intel) or by a hyperscaler seeking to accelerate inference independence. NVIDIA acquiring Groq could be a defensive move to prevent a credible inference-native architecture from being weaponized by a rival with deep distribution. Even if GroqCloud is carved out, controlling the silicon roadmap and compiler IP would meaningfully constrain Groqโ€™s ability to evolve into a standalone competitor, unless the carved-out entity retains long-term rights to the hardware and software stack. However, the strategic case is not one-sided; there are meaningful risks and potential contradictions that would need to be reconciled for the transaction to be value-accretive on a multi-year horizon. 1st, Groqโ€™s architecture appears to rely on scaling out chip count to achieve capacity, which introduces system cost, networking complexity, and physical footprint considerations. The absence of external memory and limited on-chip SRAM implies very large models require substantial chip parallelism, and the economics then depend heavily on chip cost, yield, power efficiency, and interconnect overhead. SemiAnalysis explicitly frames Groq as trading space for time and raises questions about token economics and whether publicly advertised pricing reflects fully loaded costs or market share capture. 2nd, integration risk is non-trivial. Groqโ€™s compiler-led deterministic model is philosophically and practically different from CUDAโ€™s dominant programming and execution model. A poorly executed integration could create internal product confusion, dilute engineering focus, or alienate developers if the combined stack fragments. 3rd, there is cannibalization risk. If Groq-class inference silicon undercuts GPU inference economics, NVIDIA could face internal margin trade-offs, even if the goal is to defend share against hyperscaler ASICs. Cannibalization can still be rational if it prevents larger share loss, but it would require crisp portfolio segmentation and go-to-market discipline. The presence of NVIDIAโ€™s own rapidly improving inference performance complicates the โ€œneedโ€ for Groq but does not eliminate the โ€œoption value.โ€ NVIDIA has demonstrated benchmark-leading tokens/s per user on Blackwell-based systems, suggesting that raw interactive throughput is not necessarily the limiting factor for NVIDIAโ€™s product line. The more enduring strategic question is unit economics and architectural control: whether future inference demand is better monetized through general-purpose GPUs plus software optimization, or whether a bifurcated product portfolio (training GPUs plus inference-native ASICs) becomes necessary to defend total AI compute wallet share as hyperscaler ASIC penetration increases. Acquiring Groq could be a decisive move to ensure NVIDIA participates in both regimes rather than betting exclusively on GPUs to win inference forever. What is โ€œspecialโ€ about Groqโ€™s technology relative to a typical accelerator roadmap is the tight coupling of determinism, compilation, and networking into a single scheduling problem. The LPU narrative emphasizes deterministic compute and networking, static scheduling, and direct chip-to-chip coordination that allows โ€œhundredsโ€ (more precisely, 100s) of chips to behave like a single scheduled resource. The architecture also explicitly targets tensor-parallel, latency-optimized distribution rather than pure data-parallel throughput scaling, which matters for real-time applications where a single response must arrive quickly rather than many requests being processed in bulk. The implication is that Groq is optimized for the time-to-first-token and steady token streaming behavior that defines user experience in interactive LLMs, and it attempts to achieve that without relying on large batch sizes that can degrade latency. From a portfolio managerโ€™s perspective, the most important interpretation is that an NVIDIA-Groq combination would likely be less about โ€œNVIDIA needs more inference speedโ€ and more about controlling the architectural trajectory of inference acceleration and removing a fast-improving, developer-friendly competitor from the market. The carve-out of GroqCloud would reinforce that the transaction is aimed at IP, talent, and product optionality, not acquiring a cloud revenue stream. The valuation step-up implied by $20B versus $6.9B would therefore be justified only if the acquired assets materially reduce long-term competitive risk (hyperscaler ASIC displacement, inference margin compression) or enable new monetization vectors (inference ASIC product line, supply chain de-bottlenecking, improved software determinism) that would be difficult to achieve on a comparable timeline via internal R&D.

TheValueist

102,145 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 7 Monaten

๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น๋‹˜, ๋‰ด์ง„์Šค- ํ•˜์ด๋ธŒ ์ด์Šˆ๋ฅผ ๋ด์ฃผ์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค [English Transcript] Mr. President, please take a closer look at the issue between NewJeans and HYBE. This video does not simply address a dispute between one company and one artist team. It deals with nationally significant issues... the structure of the cultural industry within the K-pop creative ecosystem, the way power operates, how public opinion is shaped, and the transparency of democracy itself. That is why this video may be somewhat lengthy, but I sincerely ask you to watch it until the end. The key messages I want to convey are organized as follows: 1. Why the State Must Pay Attention to K-pop Industry Issues K-pop drives domestic demand, exports, and tourism. Alongside semiconductors and defense, it is a strategic industry led by the next generation, a core field that the nation must protect and foster. Therefore, the government needs to inspect the health and structural problems of the K-pop creative ecosystem. 2. Why the Government Must Pay Attention to the NewJeansโ€“HYBE Case (Reason 1) The new direction that Min Hee-jin and NewJeans have shown in K-pop represents a healthy production model centered on respect for artists and the creative process. This could become a turning point for improving the problems in the current K-pop system. (Reason 2) This is not merely an issue involving one team. It is a case that exposes how structures of power suppress and exclude creative agents. To ensure the sustainability of the entire cultural and industrial ecosystem, this needs to be examined and addressed. (Reason 3) The way this situation has been handled, through media influence, legal maneuvering, and alleged manipulation of public opinion, raises issues that go beyond this industry and are directly tied to the principles of fairness and democracy. Therefore, a special audit of the company is necessary for the sake of the public interest. 3. Comprehensive Proposal: This is not a trivial internal conflict within one company. It exposes structural problems in the K-pop industry and holds the potential to change its future. Moreover, it could become a symbolic turning point that brings about meaningful structural change in Koreaโ€™s cultural and industrial landscape. Please, take the time to listen until the end. This video was made independently and conscientiously, with no personal or financial interest, out of concern for Koreaโ€™s cultural and industrial development and national competitiveness. So please, I ask that you take the time to listen until the end. This video was made independently, without any private interest, and with a sincere concern for the development of Koreaโ€™s cultural industry and national competitiveness. Why the K-pop Industry Deserves National Attention Mr. President, you have emphasized revitalizing the domestic economy as a national priority. K-pop does precisely that, it stimulates exports and tourism, invigorates small businesses and local economies, and supports livelihood industries. The economic ripple effect of the K-pop industry can revitalize entire regions, from restaurants, souvenir shops, and accommodations to transportation, shopping, performances, and exhibitions. While public support funds only redistribute an existing domestic pie, growth in industries like K-pop that reach global markets expands the pie itself. K-pop also creates value from nothing, with far fewer geographic or geopolitical constraints than manufacturing, and generates steady global revenue. As a brand, K-culture has unique global competitiveness and irreplaceable differentiation. Moreover, as a nation in a key geopolitical position, the more South Korea is recognized culturally and attracts visitors, the stronger its hand becomes in diplomacy, trade, and security negotiations. 4. The Need for New Generational Leadership And in a rapidly changing global era, South Koreaโ€™s future depends on young creative talent, those who canโ€™t be constrained by the old frameworks of industrialization. K-pop, as a youth-led, globally competitive field, symbolizes this new future. Therefore, K-pop should be protected and developed just like semiconductors or defense industries, with government support to ensure a healthy and sustainable ecosystem. 5. Why NewJeans and Min Hee-jin Matter You may ask: To what extent should the government intervene? You once said that in the arts, where politicians may not fully grasp the nuances, it is essential to listen to skilled professionals who have proven results. Min Hee-jin is one such professional. From her start as a junior employee at SM Entertainment to becoming an executive, she demonstrated unmatched ability to connect artistic vision with popular success, without a single failure. At ADOR, with only around 16 billion won of capital, she achieved over 190 billion won in sales within two years, proving that artistic value can translate into economic value. Most importantly, she refused to exploit unethical industry practices like album bulk-buying. Instead, she built NewJeans to show that art itself can be profitable, proving that honesty and creativity can coexist in business. 6. A Healthier Model for Artist Treatment Under her leadership, artists were treated with dignity, provided good housing and supportive environments, invited to her home, encouraged to study art and participate in songwriting, and even paid promptly within two months of debut. When ADOR achieved major success, NewJeans members received tens of billions in settlements, unprecedented in K-pop. She never exploited fan loyalty for profit. Even if fans could afford only one album, she ensured it was worth their money, offering honest, high-quality content. This proved that true profit in K-pop can come from the artistic value itself, not from manipulative marketing. It showed a path toward ethical, sustainable growth for K-pop. Therefore, please, give Min Hee-jin and NewJeans a chance to work together again. At the very least, hear what they have to say about K-pop. And as for HYBE, there must be an audit equivalent to a special investigation. 7. The Mechanism of Power that Suppresses Creativity In April 2024, NewJeansโ€™ global popularity was explosive, topping Billboard and Spotify, reshaping girl-group trends, and breaking Guinness World Records. Without any world tour, they achieved over 100 billion won in revenue through music alone, surpassing even the early growth rates of BTS and BLACKPINK. Yet, at the height of this success, HYBE raided ADORโ€™s offices, dismissed CEO Min Hee-jin, and dismantled the creative foundation that built NewJeans. This not only destroyed one teamโ€™s future but also dealt a severe blow to Koreaโ€™s cultural competitiveness. HYBEโ€™s public reason? That Min Hee-jin tried to take NewJeans independent. But given that HYBE owns 80% of ADORโ€™s shares, such independence was structurally impossible. The true goal appears to have been to strip Min of her authority and seize control of the creative process. After her removal, the core creative staff who built NewJeans were fired or pushed out. Suspicious internal financial transactions followed. The pattern matches what we have seen before in HYBE, talented creators producing success, only to be marginalized once their results can be absorbed by corporate power. 8. The Pattern of Power and Control within HYBE In previous cases, key developers and creators were pushed out as HYBEโ€™s management centralized around one man, Chairman Bang Si-hyuk. After public listing, HYBE expanded aggressively through acquisitions, and the CEOs of those subsidiaries were later removed. The same pattern repeated with Min Hee-jin and ADOR. And in all this, the creative value, the art itself, was disregarded. No healthy company destroys its most successful creative division. This is abnormal, and therefore demands scrutiny. The courts may hesitate to intervene, since rulings could affect corporate precedents, but that is exactly why state-level oversight is needed. K-pop is a national asset, and if a leading K-pop company makes such abnormal decisions toward one of its most promising teams, the state has ample reason for a public audit. 9. The Need for Transparency in Media and Judiciary HYBEโ€™s pattern involves media manipulation, legal intimidation, and organized online smear campaigns. Comparing reports over the past year reveals clear imbalance, suggesting external influence on editorial direction. Thus, media reform to ensure fair reporting is needed. Judicial and public-opinion manipulation must also be examined. Cases of coordinated comment attacks on lawmakers who criticized HYBE during the 2024 National Assembly audit indicate possible โ€œcomment factoryโ€ activity, systematic online operations that distort public opinion. If such manipulation exists, it is a grave threat to democracy itself. When power can distort truth through money and media, neither creators, workers, nor consumers can be fairly evaluated. Auditing HYBE could expose how such systems operate, not only protecting K-pop, but preventing similar abuse in politics and other industries. 10. Broader Implications for Koreaโ€™s Future Industries This is a matter of principle. In every industry, from AI to manufacturing, progress depends on fair competition, respect for skilled practitioners, and merit-based leadership. When leadership is earned through competence, industries thrive; when it is preserved through privilege, they decay. Koreaโ€™s rapid development has produced entrenched interests without fair verification of ability, a structural problem visible across industries. And when the leading company in such a vital cultural field behaves this way, the state must intervene. Good leaders and companies that value authenticity, fairness, and creativity should be given the opportunity to set the new standard. Min Hee-jin and NewJeans demonstrated that possibility in K-pop. Only when merit-based, ethical companies lead can any industry, including K-pop, achieve sustainable and healthy growth. A strong, fair industrial foundation is the prerequisite for a truly sustainable welfare state. That is the responsibility of government. 11. Final Appeal Mr. President, the NewJeansโ€“HYBE issue is not just an internal dispute. It is a test case, whether Korea will continue allowing power to suppress creativity and absorb othersโ€™ achievements, or whether it will set a new standard for fairness across industries. Please give Min Hee-jin and NewJeans the opportunity to work together again. Please listen to the voices of artists who have built the true value of K-pop. That voice can become the driving force for Koreaโ€™s future. To all viewers This channel is not monetized and holds no vested interests in any party. I speak not as a fan of any group, but as a citizen who loves this country and wishes for Koreaโ€™s cultural and industrial future to grow in the right direction. I know my perspective may not always be correct. If there are misunderstandings, I welcome correction with evidence. But if this message carries even a grain of truth, if it sounds fair and meaningful, then please help deliver it to those who can make change, including the President. Somewhere around you, a friend, colleague, family member, or even your local hairdresser, there may be someone who can understand and act. This voice may be minor, it may soon fade, but if even one more person begins to think critically about these unjust structures, that awareness can gather and become the power to build a better society. ------ Watch the video on youtube:

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