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๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ฅ๐š๐ฎ๐ง๐œ๐ก ๐ฒ๐จ๐ฎ'๐ฏ๐ž ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐ฐ๐š๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ: ๐‚๐ก๐ข๐ง๐š'๐ฌ 90% ๐Œ๐จ๐๐ž๐ฅ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ๐๐š๐ฒ. For three decades, I advised more than 50 Chinese companies. I watched this strategy being built from the inside. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐š๐ฒ๐›๐จ๐จ๐ค ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž: โ€ข Build 90% global capacity โ€ข Manage the currency โ€ข Price below marginal cost...

899,107 ๆฌก่ง‚็œ‹ โ€ข 4 ไธชๆœˆๅ‰ โ€ขvia X (Twitter)

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็›ธๅ…ณ่ง†้ข‘

A Watch and Investment Story I have been a watch enthusiast since my dad got me interested in watches decades ago. About three years ago, I was in London and walked by a watch boutique called Bremont. I stepped into the store, fell in love with the watches, thought they were fairly priced if not somewhat inexpensive for the quality, and bought a number of them as gifts for friends and one for myself. As I was completing the purchases, I asked the store manager: โ€˜Who owns the company?โ€™ He said, โ€œThe English brothersโ€ โ€“ Nick and Giles English โ€“ and then he proceeded to tell me Bremontโ€™s origin story that begins with a tragic plane crash of a 1942 Harvard trainer aircraft (an American plane purchased by the British beginning in 1938) which killed their father and almost Nick. In their โ€˜What does not kill me makes me strongerโ€™ new world, Nick and Giles were inspired to pursue their dream of creating and building a British watch company, and Bremont thereafter was born. The manager gave me their contact information and I sent an email congratulating the brothers on the company, the brand, and the watches. I also offered to invest and help the business grow. Sometime later, I did a Zoom with Nick. He explained that my timing was good, as a long-time investor in the company was looking to sell some of their shares. Within a couple of months, an affiliate of mine invested coinciding with the purchase by a legacy Bremont shareholder of primary shares to provide the company with additional growth capital. I thereafter bought more shares of stock from other selling shareholders and I invested a substantial amount of additional growth capital in the company just this past week. Affiliates of mine and The Bremont Long Term Trust, a trust I recently established, now own 63% of the company. Bremont is a luxury British watch company that produces adventure and exploration watches. About one-fourth of Bremontโ€™s sales are to the military, where the company has made custom-designed watches for more than 500 British, U.S., and other American ally squadrons around the world. While today there are very few British watch companies, the British actually created the watch industry โ€“ Rolex, notably, was a British company before it moved to Switzerland โ€“ with many of the most important technical innovations and complications of the industry having been invented in England in the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries. For the watch industry, the Swiss can be thought of like the Japanese of the U.S. auto industry, where in the early days, the Swiss made cheap imitations of British watches, but eventually by the 20th century, came to dominate the industry. For compliance reasons, I have been limited in my personal investments to private situations, principally startups, real estate, and private equity, directly and through funds. Because of my personal time limitations, I spend very little time on these investments, but through a combination of good luck, investment experience, and a good eye for talent, my collective private investment outcomes have been excellent, with a few huge successes outweighing some disappointments. I have always viewed my non-Pershing Square investments as an opportunity for learning and insights that I can apply to my day job. For example, I have found that closely following the venture investment world has provided important insights into disruptive technologies and companies that can soon become serious threats to even the largest and best capitalized public companies. Experiences at small companies also very often apply to big ones, so in my hobby of making personal investments, my returns have been both financial and educational, from my successes and from my failures. Other than tennis, I donโ€™t have any real hobbies, but perhaps my personal investing qualifies as my second passion. To date, I have been a passive investor in Bremont, but perhaps the activist in me caused me to step forward, to recently seize the opportunity to materially increase my investment in the company, and become the non-executive chairman of a newly refreshed board. I donโ€™t expect my chairman role at Bremont to take much of my time as it is a private company of limited scale, but I do expect my experience here will provide some helpful learnings and insights. I also thought it would be fun, interesting, and rewarding to take the X community along for the ride โ€“ at least those that are interested in watches, operations, and investing. I intend to provide periodic updates of the companyโ€™s progress on X, about our successes, our struggles, and our failures โ€“ so that we can learn and have some fun together. Think of my periodic updates as โ€œDrive to Survive,โ€ but for watches on X. โ€œTime to Succeedโ€? You can probably come up with a better name for the series, and perhaps then I should reach out to Netflix to see if they are interested (while holding back my tears as I have watched the stock massively appreciate since our exit!). Bremont can greatly benefit by your feedback so I strongly encourage you to share your insights, critiques, and other ideas about the company and its watches on X so we can learn and improve. We will periodically award the best ideas with Bremont watches so you can have an opportunity to earn an appropriate in-kind return on your time invested in helping us succeed. In the modern era, building an independent watch company into a major company, let alone one in the U.K., has rarely if ever occurred. The watch world is littered with many such failed attempts so it is far from guaranteed that we will succeed in building a profitable and sustainable company, let alone a major independent player. My Investment History to Date with Bremont Prior to my investment in the company, Nick and Giles had taken Bremont to a reasonable scale for an independently owned watch company at about ยฃ21 million in revenues with a modest operating loss, which is an incredible accomplishment for two young men with no watch industry experience. Nick and Giles accomplishment is particularly significant in an extremely competitive industry characterized by well capitalized incumbents that control many of the top brands, e.g., Richemont, Swatch, LVMH, as well dominant, independently owned companies like Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars and Piguet, and a few others. Despite their progress, both Nick and Giles and the other shareholders agreed that bringing in an executive with watch industry experience would help to take the company to the next level. Shortly after I invested, we hired a search firm to identify and ultimately recruit our new CEO, Davide Cerrato, who joined in May of 2023. Davideโ€™s entire career has been spent in the industry at Panerai, Tudor โ€“ where he famously created the Black Bay, Montblanc, and with a brief stent at HYT. Davide in turn hired other industry notables to round out the executive suite, and then the team went to work with the ambitious goal of transforming Bremont into a global industry leader. Bremont has some important competitive advantages. First and most importantly, the watches are handsome, extremely well designed, and overengineered. Davideโ€™s team has materially upgraded materials (for example, the company now uses 904L steel for all of its steel watches โ€“ the same as Rolex โ€“ unprecedented for watches at Bremontโ€™s price point), parts, and movements from what was already a good standard to a level comparable to watches at multiples of the price. The watches are developed, designed, manufactured, and serviced in Henley-on-Thames using principally Swiss movements. While making its own movement is an aspirational goal for Bremont, the Swiss still make the highest quality movements so that is what Bremont uses. Bremont has a unique brand story and heritage, particularly for a 23-year-old company, with two decades of credibility in war zones and air combat missions with the best war fighters and military pilots in the world. Bremont also makes a limited number of watches, around 10,000 per year, compared with more than 1.2 million for Rolex and 70,000 for Patek Philippe, and scarcity drives value in luxury goods. The combination of battlefield credibility, rarity, quality and a fair price make Bremont an extremely attractive alternative to the typical Rolex or Patek, which everyone seems to be wearing in my industry, a ubiquity in my view that loses its luster over time. Over the past 23 months, Davide and team have redesigned and focused Bremontโ€™s range around three core offerings in Land, Sea, and Air โ€“ the Terra Nova, the Supermarine, and the Altitude โ€“ while upgrading materials, movements, and quality, updating the logo to reflect the new Land and Sea offerings (Bremont was previously perceived to only be an aviation brand), and dramatically improving manufacturing and service. The company has extended its warranty from three to five years on its new watches reflecting these improvements. Bremont benefits from having overinvested in its spectacular 35,000 square foot combined headquarters, manufacturing facility, and showroom in Henley-on-Thames, aka โ€œThe Wingโ€ (email [email protected] to arrange a superb tour), with the capacity for substantial growth without the requirement for incremental capital investment. Lastly, Bremont now has a well-capitalized long-term major owner who would like to see Bremont become a big success and achieve its vision of returning watchmaking to the UK, and who is not looking for dividends or a liquidity event in this lifetime. I have learned over time that permanent capital and a truly long-term orientation are enormous competitive advantages for any business, and they should be very helpful here. With respect to the product, later this morning in Geneva at Watches and Wonders, the industryโ€™s most important trade show, the company is launching its new Altitude aviation line, which builds from the companyโ€™s highly successful Martin Baker offerings. The company will also be introducing some complicated new watches including two unique, jumping hour models, a 12-piece new tourbillion model (the company's first 30-piece tourbillion watch sold out shortly after its launch last year), and the companyโ€™s first perpetual calendar (limited to 50 pieces). I will be back with further updates as we continue to make progress. In the meantime, please check out and visit the Wing ([email protected] ) and our boutiques in Mayfair and throughout the U.K., on Madison Avenue and 53rd Street, in Hong Kong, and in Melbourne. Pictures donโ€™t do Bremonts justice so you should go in person and tell the store manager that I sent you. Also, please take a look at our new launch video, and don't forget to let me know what you think.

Bill Ackman

1,625,720 ๆฌก่ง‚็œ‹ โ€ข 1 ๅนดๅ‰

The Great Equalizer: How I Iterated Through 90+ Strategies to Automate My Financial Freedom ninety strategies sounds like a death wish but it is actually the only way to find your edge in a market designed to liquidate you. most traders are out here gambling with their rent money while the big players are using automated systems to harvest their liquidations. i know this because i spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on developers for apps thinking i could never code myself. i was getting wrecked by over trading and watching my accounts hit zero while i slept. code became the great equalizer for me because it removed the emotion that was killing my bankroll. i decided to learn to code live so i could iterate to success and now i have fully automated systems trading for me instead of getting liquidated by every wick. i just saw someone lose ten million dollars in a single month because they were trading by hand and got addicted to the screen. you have to understand that if you are not automating you are the exit liquidity for someone who is. the reality of advanced futures trading is not about finding one holy grail bot that prints money forever. it is about research and back testing until you find a strategy that has a statistical advantage. one of the most slept on concepts is variable risk scaling where you actually change your position size based on how volatile the market is. instead of just betting the same amount every time you increase your size when volatility is low and scale back when the market starts moving like crazy. this keeps you in the game during the draw downs that usually wipe people out. most people do the opposite and revenge trade with bigger size when they are losing which is the fastest way to the cemetery. i used to think i needed to be the smartest guy in the room to make this work but i realized i just needed to be the most disciplined with my risk parameters. there is a secret hidden in funding rates and basis trading that most retail traders never even look at. while everyone else is trying to guess if bitcoin is going to the moon or the floor you can actually make consistent money through funding rate arbitrage. you basically buy the asset in the spot market and simultaneously sell it in the futures market when the funding rate is high. you just sit there and collect the interest payments from the gamblers who are over leveraged on the other side. it is basically free money if you can manage the fees and keep your execution precise. i used to ignore these low yield plays because i wanted the big home runs but those home runs usually came with massive strikeouts. now i look for these carry trades as a way to keep the equity curve moving up and to the right while others are sweating over every price change. most traders fail because they use lagging indicators and expect them to predict the future with one hundred percent accuracy. the truth is that even the best trend following strategies like the golden cross or moving average crossovers only have about sixty five percent accuracy. you have to combine these with filters like the average directional index or relative strength index to make sure you are not just buying a fake breakout. a lot of people get chopped up in sideways markets because they do not have a trend strength filter to tell them to stay out of the trade. i learned to use multiple time frames to confirm my breakouts because if the one hour and the four hour charts are not saying the same thing then the trade is probably a trap. you have to be a searcher looking for those golden nuggets of alpha buried in mountains of data. i used to think that machine learning and genetic algorithms were just buzzwords that did not actually work for trading. then i realized that the 1990s tech trap is real and if you are still using basic indicators without any optimization you are decades behind. genetic algorithms are wild because they simulate natural selection to find the best parameters for your strategy through trial and error. you can actually build an environment where your bot learns from its own mistakes and optimizes its decision making process over time. i spent so much time thinking i was not smart enough to do this but once i started iterating live i found that the machines are much better at following rules than i ever was. code is the only way to compete with the high frequency firms that are looking for any tiny mispricing in the order book. slippage and bad execution will eat your profits faster than a bad trade ever could if you are not careful. most people just hit the market buy button and pay the spread and the fees without a second thought. you should be using smart order routing and limit orders to capture the bid ask spread instead of paying it to the market makers. i started using time weighted average price execution to spread my larger orders out over time so i did not move the market against myself. it is these tiny details in execution that separate the professional quants from the people who are just playing around. i had to learn this the hard way after losing a fortune on bad entries and exits that could have been avoided with a few lines of code. the ultimate goal of all of this is to build a compounding machine that grows your capital while you are living your life. you have to automate the reinvestment of your profits so that your position sizes grow as your account grows without you having to manually adjust anything. i like to use automated compounding algorithms that take a portion of my wins and put them back into the systems that are performing the best. this creates a snowball effect where your returns start to accelerate as the base capital increases. it took me years to realize that i did not need to be at the desk for eighteen hours a day to make life changing money. i just needed to build a system that was smarter and more disciplined than my own human brain. cross asset skew and volatility surface arbitrage are where the real quants play when the market gets efficient. you can look for mispricings between highly correlated assets like bitcoin and ethereum and trade the spread between them. when one asset gets overvalued relative to the other you short the leader and long the laggard until they revert back to the mean. this is a much safer way to trade because you are not betting on the direction of the market but rather the relationship between two assets. i spent a lot of money trying to guess the next big move before i realized that trading the relationship between assets was much more consistent. iteration is the only way to find these winks in the market that the average trader is completely blind to. it is a cold world in finance and most people are out here trying to step on your neck to get ahead. i believe that sharing this knowledge is important because code is the only thing that can give a regular person a fighting chance against the institutions. i started from zero and learned everything through failing and losing money until i finally figured out how to automate. now i spend my time building and testing instead of worrying about the next liquidation candle. you have to decide today if you want to keep being the exit liquidity or if you want to start building your own systems. the tools are all there and the data is accessible if you are willing to put in the work and stop negotiating with yourself. successful trading is not about being lucky it is about being prepared and having a system that can handle any market regime. whether the market is in a bull run or a total crash your bots should know exactly what to do based on the rules you have coded into them. i use risk weighted allocation to make sure that my capital is always moving toward the strategies with the highest sharp ratio and the lowest volatility. this keeps the portfolio stable even when the crypto market is going through its typical insane swings. i finally found peace in this game because i know that my automated systems are following the math while everyone else is following their feelings. code is the great equalizer and it is time for you to start using it to protect your future and build your empire there are over ninety strategies you can test and most of them will not work for your specific style but you only need one or two to change your life. i have built a fat list of ideas from research and i spend every day back testing and refining them to stay ahead of the curve. do not let the fear of coding stop you from taking control of your financial destiny because i am living proof that anyone can learn. i would rather spend my time iterating to success than getting liquidated by some random news event that i could not predict. the journey from losing hundreds of thousands to fully automated success was long but it was the best investment i ever made. keep your heart open and lead with love in this game and i promise the universe will start passing you those golden nuggets of alpha you have been searching for

Moon Dev

11,164 ๆฌก่ง‚็œ‹ โ€ข 5 ไธชๆœˆๅ‰

In 2002, Elon Musk flew to Moscow three times to buy a refurbished missile. He couldn't close the deal. On the flight home, he asked himself: "When's the last time you bought something Russian that wasn't vodka?" He started SpaceX instead. 1 year later, he stood in front of Stanford students and spent 45 minutes explaining everything he'd learned about building companies: On starting Zip2: This was 1995. Most VCs on Sand Hill Road hadn't even heard of the internet. "I thought it would be a pretty huge thing. It was one of those things that only came along once in a very long while." He got a deferment from Stanford to start the company. "When I talked to my professor and told him this, he said, 'Well, I don't think you'll be coming back.' That was the last conversation I had with him." The problem: he had no money. "I couldn't afford a place to stay and an office. So I rented an office instead, because I got a cheaper office than I could get a place to stay." "I slept on the futon and showered at the YMCA on Page Mill and El Camino." "I was in the best shape I've ever been. Go to shower, work out, and you're good to go." There was an ISP on the floor below them. "We drilled a hole through the floor and connected a null modem cable. That gave us our internet connectivity for like 100 bucks a month." "We had an absurdly tiny burn rate. And we also had a really tiny revenue stream. But we actually had more revenue than we had expenses." They sold Zip2 to Compaq in early 1999 for over $300 million. "In cash. That's a currency I highly recommend." On starting PayPal: "I didn't really take any time off." He was looking for what remained in the internet. Financial services hadn't seen much innovation. "When you think about it, money is low bandwidth. You don't need some big infrastructure improvement. It's really just an entry in a database." They built a platform that combined banking, brokerage, and insurance in one place. That took enormous effort. Then they added a little feature that took one day: the ability to email money from one customer to another. "Whenever we demonstrated these two sets of features, we'd say, 'Look how you can see your bank statement and your mutual funds and insurance, all on one page. Look how convenient that is.'" "And people would go, 'Ho hum.'" "Then we'd say, 'And by the way, we have this feature where you can enter somebody's email address and transfer funds.'" "And they'd go, 'Wow.'" "So we focused the company's business on email payments." On viral growth: "PayPal is really a perfect case example of viral marketing." "One customer would essentially act as a salesperson for you. They would send money to a friend and essentially recruit that friend into the network." "So you had this exponential growth. The more customers you had, the faster it grew." "It was like bacteria in a Petri dish. It just goes like this S-curve." The results: "I ran PayPal for about the first two years of its existence. We launched after year one. By the end of year two, we had a million customers." "We didn't have a sales force. We didn't have a VP of sales. We didn't have a VP of marketing. And we didn't spend any money on advertising." On why product matters: "The essence of viral marketing is: do you have something where one customer is going to sell another customer without you having to do anything?" "Product matters incredibly. Because if you're going to recommend something to somebody, you've got to really love the product experience. Otherwise you're not going to recommend it." "You don't want to burn your friend." On company culture: "We had a pretty flat hierarchy. Everybody had a roughly similar cube. Anyone could talk to anyone." "We had a philosophy of best idea wins. As opposed to the person proposing the idea winning because they are who they are." "Even though there were times when I thought that should have been the way to go." On decision-making: "If there were two paths and one wasn't obviously better than the other, rather than spend a lot of time trying to figure out which one was slightly better, we would just pick one and do it." "Sometimes we'd be wrong and pick the suboptimal path. But often it's better to pick a path and do it than to just vacillate endlessly on a choice." On focus: "We didn't worry too much about intellectual property, paperwork, legal stuff." "We were very focused on building the best product we possibly could." "We were incredibly obsessive about how to build something that is really going to be the best possible customer experience." "That was a far more effective selling tool than having a giant sales force or thinking of marketing gimmicks or 12-step processes." On why he started SpaceX: "I was trying to figure out why we had not made more progress since Apollo." "In the 60s, we went from basically nothing to putting people on the moon. Yet in the 70s, 80s, and 90s, we've kind of gone sideways." "The computer you could have bought in the early 70s would have filled this room and had less computing power than your cell phone. Just about every sector of technology has improved. Why has this not improved?" He thought maybe public support was the problem. So he planned a privately funded Mars mission: put plants growing on Mars for $15-20 million. But the cheapest US rocket was $50 million. So he flew to Moscow. Three trips. Couldn't close the deal. "When I got back from the third trip, I thought: why is it the Russians can build these low-cost launch vehicles? It's not like we drive Russian cars, fly Russian planes, or have Russian kitchen appliances." "When's the last time you bought something Russian that wasn't vodka?" "I think the US is a pretty competitive place. We should be able to build a cost-efficient launch vehicle." On why rockets are expensive: "The energy and velocity required to get into orbit is so substantial that you have almost no margin to play with." "A launch vehicle will get about 2% of its liftoff mass to orbit." "If you're wrong by 2%, you're not going to get anything to orbit. It'll come crashing down in the Pacific somewhere." "That means all of your calculations have to be right. If you miscalculate something, it blows up." On how SpaceX got costs down: Their rocket: $6 million. Nearest competitor: $25 million for less capability. "There's no silver bullet. It's been really hundreds of small innovations and improvements." "We've done improvements in the propulsion system, the structure, the avionics, and the launch operations." "Our overhead in a 30-person company is an order of magnitude less than Lockheed or Boeing. Just for starters." "Every decision we've made has been with consideration to simplicity. Because simplicity both improves reliability and reduces cost." "If you've got fewer components, that's fewer components to go wrong and fewer components to buy." On being an entrepreneur: "I think really an obsessive nature with respect to the quality of the product is very important." "Being obsessive-compulsive is a good thing in this context." "Really liking what you do is important. If you don't like it, life is too short." "If you like what you're doing, you think about it even when you're not working. Your mind is drawn to it." "If you don't like it, you just really can't make it work." On parallelization: "Try not to serialize dependencies. Put as many elements in parallel as possible." "A lot of things have a gestation period. There's really nothing you can do to accelerate that gestation period." "If you can have all those things gestating in parallel, that is one way to substantially accelerate your timeline." "People tend to serialize things too much." On space as a business: Someone asked if SpaceX was a good first company to start. "No. I would not recommend it." "This is advanced entrepreneuring." "You know how many people have said: the fastest way to make a small fortune in the aerospace industry is to start with a large one." This 45 minute Stanford lecture will teach you more about building companies than every startup book combined. Bookmark & give it 45 minutes today, no matter what.

Jaynit

423,205 ๆฌก่ง‚็œ‹ โ€ข 3 ไธชๆœˆๅ‰

Robert Friedland (Robert Friedland) is one of the most important voices in Metals & Mining. When he speaks, we should listen. He recently gave a 40-minute speech on Green Energy, Electrification, Metal Scarcity, and more. Here are my notes from the talk ๐Ÿ‘‡ WHAT DOES "ENERGY TRANSITION" MEAN? "You have a billion people that burn firewood to live. They have no access to electrical energy." "We're burning more coal and more oil today than in the history of the world." "We spent $4T putting up solar panels for hydrocarbons to still capture 83% of energy source." "You're not going to stop global warming by buying an electric car." ON ELECTRIC CARS & EV BATTERIES "With current lithium ion technology, the destruction we cause, the global warming gas we cause, we might as well sit on our chairs and do nothing." "You just bought your wife a coal-burning car by buying an EV." "The current generation of EV batteries will be toast in 2-3 years." "I would short every lithium company in the world." "We're going to kill the lithium hydroxide business over time." COMMON METALS VITAL FOR TRANSITION "If we're going to have a transition, we need common and abundant materials. We can't rely on things like nickel." "The batteries they're making now are low-grade lithium metal. You don't need nickel, cobalt, graphite, They're out the window." "You want batteries made out of common materials so billions of people can use it." WOMB TO TOMB EXAMINATION OF NET ZERO "Look at the whole system if you're trying to eliminate global warming." "The Chinese are saying 2060 and India is now saying 2070. What does that tell you?" "There's zero chance that the twelve major automakers will find enough nickel to make their batteries." "The amount of metal we need doesn't exist currently in a way that's green or sustainable. It's apparent to any readily intelligible person." "How can we stop burning coal and oil and not have an energy transition?" TWO COMPETING PARADIGMS "We have two competing tribes. One tribe says 'I want to save the world, I'm green, I need cobalt, nickel, platinum, or palladium'. The other tribe says 'Holy shit, the Army/Navy wants these metals for national defense.'" "The intensity of metal demand in conflict is beyond your wildest imagination. In WWI you needed a telescope to see the price of copper." "So we're heading to a world where both tribes have a strong demand for more metals. We're balkenizing the world into two camps and its tearing the global supply chains apart." A VERY DIFFICULT TIME "It does appear that the world is warming, and there's zero chance we'll reduce that. The question is how bad will it get?" "I was in CA recently, it was $6.20 per gallon. The average citizen is pissed off." "I agree with Jamie Dimon that this is the most dangerous time since I've been alive." "The Fed are idiots. They told us that inflation was over. And it's not even close." WE NEED TO REINVENT THE MINING INDUSTRY "First of all, we have to try to mine in the United States. No intelligent person has tried to do that in the last few generations." "Everything is blown out of proportion because mining is viewed as a bad thing." "We also have to determine what metals we actually need for the future. Which is copper." "Imagine you're plugging an EV w/ 1MW charger. Our grid is literally a 110 year old lady waiting to die. The Chinese tell me it will take $21T to rebuild the electrical grid." "Our grid is like balancing a pencil vertically on your palm. There's no storage there." "The symbol of the US, the bald eagle, is flying into offshore windmills. They're just chewing them up. Who wants to live near them? They're very low density." "At least real miners know how hard it is to actually find metals and mine it." ENERGY CONSUMPTION "A Google search requires 1,000 joules of electrical energy. You think its free, but its paid for by advertising." "You think the internet is green? You know how much energy it requires to use AI/ChatGPT? You think Bitcoin/crypto is green?" IMPORTANCE OF COPPER "I don't know if we need gold. But I do know we need copper. And we need it really badly." "Having said that, I'd rather there be gold in my copper. Because people will always want gold." "People are getting rid of their excess copper because they're de-stocking to reduce their interest cost. But we're nearing the end of de-stocking and paper selling." "This huge clash is coming between Army, Navy, Air Force and the Greening of the world economy. And the miners have an unbelievable burden to make that happen." "At the same time we need these metals, its harder to get the equipment needed to mine the metal!" "The miners have a very important role to play to supply the world with the metals it desperately needs." IMPORTANCE OF SAUDI ARABIA "If Saudi Arabia can't maintain basic energy security, we'll have $200-$300 oil. We need stability in that pricing. At $100-$300 oil, people in Egypt don't eat." "Saudi is playing a beneficial role by keeping oil between $70-90 per barrel." AUDIENCE Q&A "The valuation of the mining industry relative to the S&P 500 is the lowest in living memory. The general person thinks that mining is evil and must be eliminated." "50% of what goes into an EV is hydrocarbon. If we stopped producing oil, half of humanity would die from starvation." "I don't think we understand how formidable the Chinese are." "In a Balkenized economy, we went from a Just-in-Time supply chain to a Just-in-Case supply chain." "How much metal do we need to build nuclear reactors? How much steel, concrete, rebar, nuclear engineers do you need to build these things?" "The problem is that the world economy is Balkenized. Where is the steel coming from? Where are the pumps coming from? The French want nuclear power, and the Germans are burning coal. Even within Europe, its Balkenized. That's all I see." "I think the mining industry needs to defend itself more. Where do you think stuff comes from? There's the hardware of the mine (tons, grade, engineering). Then there's all the people around the mine (locals). There's invariably a clash with the locals around the mine. Unless they're buying into it, its not going to happen. That's the software around mining." ON KNOWING WHERE THINGS COME FROM "People don't realize where things come from. As people live in urban environments, they forget where things come from." "We need to communicate the importance of mining and humanize it as an activity. We need to mine in the United States. We need to figure out what should be mined, where we're allowed to mine, and how."

Brandon Beylo

440,049 ๆฌก่ง‚็œ‹ โ€ข 2 ๅนดๅ‰

Clive Lewis's Water Bill - bringing water back to the people ๐Ÿ’ฏ Please watch, listen or read this transcript. Because this is the sort of leadership Labour needs ๐Ÿ‘ Clive Lewis MP He even calls for PR ๐Ÿ‘ Clive Lewis (Norwich South) (Lab) Margaret Thatcherโ€™s revolution tore up the rulebook on political and economic management. She rewrote it with a single unwavering principle: that the pursuit of profit would serve the public good, even when it came to vital public servicesโ€”even when it came to water. We often say that society stands on the shoulders of giants, but giants cast long shadows, and Thatcherismโ€™s shadow looms dark over our water system today. Whether we see ourselves standing on her shoulders or trapped in her shadow, one thing is undeniable: she proved that the world can be made differently. And if it can be made differently once, it can be made differently again. That, as the brilliant anthropologist David Graeber understood, is the hidden truth of the world. It is something we create and can choose to create anew. We can do it better. Today, I want to show this House and this country that water is the lens through which we can imagine something betterโ€”a better way of running our economy, a better way of safeguarding our environment and a better way of empowering the public, for whom democracy supposedly exists. But that requires something very difficult: it requires us to break free from the constraints of our imagination and to let go of the idea that this economic model is all there is or all there ever could be. It saddens me to say that the Governmentโ€™s Water (Special Measures) Act 2025 perfectly exemplifies this failure of imagination. One of its leading proponents has a particular rhetorical flourish they love to use when dismissing calls for public ownership of water. They say, โ€œIโ€™m more interested in the purity of our water than the purity of our ideology.โ€ I love that quote. I love it because it lays bare just how deeply the ideology of privatisation, and all that goes with it, has embedded itself. So entrenched is it within our collective consciousness that we no longer recognise it as an ideology. We no longer see it for what it is: a systemic exploitation of a common resource for private gain. Instead, it has simply become the natural order of things. But how much longer can this go on? Since the crash of 2008, this ideology has been faltering under the weight of its own contradictions, yet its grip on British politics remains vice-like. Austerity, exploitation and corporate price gouging are still treated not as choices but as inevitabilities. Why? Because too many politicians on both sides of the House refuse to contemplate alternatives. For those on the other side of the Houseโ€”on the Opposition Benchesโ€”I get it: this is their ideology. They are defending their class, and I would imagine they would go further still if they could. But on this side of the House, we have no excuse. We should be standing up for our class: working-class peopleโ€”the public. Instead, we wrap their ideology in the language of fiscal responsibility, economic prudence and stewardship of the economy. But it is not fiscal responsibility when we balance the books on broken backs. It is not stewardship when the ship has been sold off and the crew left to drown. It is not prudence. It is power maintenance. Neil Coyle (Bermondsey and Old Southwark) (Lab) I hope the engineers can check that the microphones and speakers are working while I ask a quick question. My hon. Friend mentions Members on this side of the House. There are far more of us on this side since July last year than there were in 2019, with a very different approach taken in our manifestos. Does he fear that the shift in tone he is suggesting is one of the reasons that we did so badly in 2019 but so well last year? Clive Lewis No, I do not. We have a distorted electoral system. Bring on proportional representation, because if we had PR, we would have had a different Government in 2019 and most definitely in 2017. Sometimes politicians have to do what they believe to be right and lead from the front. I think we should lead from the front. Jeremy Corbyn (Islington North) (Ind) I compliment the hon. Member on his Bill. To help his argument, there was overwhelming opinion poll support for public ownership of water in 2017 and 2019, and there still is today. Clive Lewis I thank the right hon. Member for his point. I will come on to this later, and I hope other Members will pick up on it, but the fact that the public are way ahead of this House on the issue of public ownership is one of the reasons why so many people are losing faith in the two-party political system. One only has to look at some political parties whose Members are not in their placeโ€”at the Reform party, for example, which has a policy of public ownership of water. Yes, its Members will privatise the NHS, but they understand how popular this is, and they are ahead of the curveโ€”they are ahead of us on this side. Neil Coyle Really? Clive Lewis On the issue of water, yes, I would say they are, because whether I like it or not, Reform has a policy for water to be owned 50% by pension companies and 50% by the public. As much as it grieves me to say it, that is a policy of public ownership. They are populist; they are listening to a popular voice. Mr James Frith (Bury North) (Lab) Will my hon. Friend give way? Clive Lewis I will make some progress and then give way, and I will also try to keep the volume down a little bit. This is about the maintenance of a political and economic model that was never built to serve the publicโ€”a model designed to shield the wealth of asset holders, landlords, shareholders, corporations and, yes, privatised water companies. But here is the great irony: the very greed, recklessness and contempt of the water industryโ€”its excessesโ€”have cracked open the door, and through that crack, we glimpse an opportunity. It is an opportunity to shatter the myth of privatisationโ€™s inevitability, to break free from the narrow, self-imposed rules that have caged our Governmentโ€™s economic choices, to expose its failures, to challenge its dominance and, above all, to show this country that there is an alternativeโ€”an alternative that is democratic, sustainable and run in the interests of the many, not the few. We can do it better. Mr Frith My hon. Friend is making a typically impassioned speech. He says the general public are ahead of us. Where might that same public be when faced with the bill for bringing in the nationalisation he is clearly wedded to? Furthermore, in the event that we do not have to buy the water industry but seize it, the implications of that seizure will cause an economic collapse. At what point will he take responsibility for either of those scenarios when confronting a public who are, he says, ahead of us on this issue? Clive Lewis I will obviously come to many of those points later in my speech, but let me make this point now: I do not believe in nationalisation, and this Bill has nothing to do with nationalisation. This is about giving the public a say over their water. It is about governance, standards and democracy. Mr Frith Will my hon. Friend give way? Clive Lewis No, my hon. Friend has made his point. Mr Frith On this point? Clive Lewis No, I am going to carry on and make some progress. You made your point. Let the publicโ€” Madam Deputy Speaker (Ms Nusrat Ghani) Order. Mr Lewis, I do not believe I was making a point at all. Clive Lewis My apologies, Madam Deputy Speaker; I should have said that my hon. Friend made his point. The clock is ticking. The climate crisis is no longer a distant warning. It is our lived reality. Rising droughts, creeping desertification, depleted aquifers, wildfires, systemic collapseโ€”these are no longer projections; they are the forecast turned fact. Preparing for this future and adapting to what is now inevitable has never been more urgent. The evidence is sobering. The UKโ€™s water resources are under mounting pressure and not just from the climate emergency, but from rising demand and population growth. Experts now project that England could face significant water supply deficits as early as 2034 unless we act decisively. That is not a distant horizon; it is a little over a decade away. But while the threat has grown, our resilience has shrunk, because while the climate crisis has intensified, our water infrastructure has stood still, or, worse, been sold off, hollowed out and left to rot. In the 35 years before privatisation almost 100 reservoirs were built; in the 35 years since privatisation, not one major English reservoir has been built. But it gets worse, because in that same period private water companies have sold off 25 reservoirs without replacing one. Instead of investing in resilience, they have extracted value: ยฃ72 billion paid out in dividends while pipes leak, rivers choke, and the public pays the price. My hon. Friend the Member for Bury North (Mr Frith) asks how we can afford it; how can we not afford it? That is not mismanagement; it is a betrayal. If scientists tell us the climate crisis is an existential threat to humanity and to this countryโ€” Grahame Morris (Easington) (Lab) Will my hon. Friend give way? Clive Lewis One second. If scientists tell us the climate crisis is an existential threat to humanity and to this country, we must treat it as such: an existential conflict. In that context, the actions of these companiesโ€”selling off reservoirs, failing to invest, polluting our waterโ€”are not just negligent; they are acts that actively undermine our national water security. In any other existential crisis, we might call that what it is: sabotage. And in a time of national peril, sabotage has another name: treason. Let me explain why this matters to me personally. When I served on tour in Afghanistan back in 2009โ€”not in a boy bandโ€”I experienced something utterly alien to me: the gnawing fear of thirst; not the mild irritation of forgetting a water bottle, but the deep physical worry that there may not be enough clean water to get through the day. In Britain, we have been blessed: water falls from the sky; it fills our rivers, it soaks our fields, and we joke about itโ€”it is part of who we are. But in Afghanistan there was no humour; only heat, dust and desperation. There I saw children trekking miles through the desert, not for food, not for money, but to beg for clean bottled water. Once we have seen that, and once we have felt that fear, we can never take water for granted again. We never again believe it is something we can waste or pollute or privatise without consequence. That is why I have brought forward this Bill: because anger is not enough; outrage, no matter how justified, will not fix the pipes, stop the sewage or fill the reservoirs. We need a plan. We need a strategy. We need a future. We can do it better. My Water Bill delivers that. It sets out the high standards our country deserves and the democratic governance our water system desperately needs. First, it establishes clear, ambitious targets to stop the sewage in our rivers and on our beaches, to restore our water to high ecological and chemical standards, and to deliver universal, affordable access to water as a basic human rightโ€”a right we have never had before in this country. It demands a system designed not just to extract profit but to adapt, to build resilience in the face of climate change, and to harness nature-based solutions that work with the environment, not against it. Secondly, it transforms governance. The Bill introduces representation for workers and local communities on the boards of water companies. It gives voting rights to employees and customers, so that those who use and maintain a system have a real say in how it is run. Water is not a commodity but a common good, and those who depend on it and pay for it should help govern it. Thirdly, the Bill lays the foundations for a democratic future. It establishes a commission on water ownership to advise the Secretary of State on long-term strategy, looking at international best practice, especially in OECD countries, where public water ownership is the norm, not the exception. Crucially, it creates a citizens assembly on water ownership to bring the public into the process, to deliberate, debate and decide how we can govern this most precious of resources. The public care, but how do I know that? I know because a small fraction of them are in the Public Gallery today, having travelled here from all over the country; I know because of the thousands of emails that have been sent to MPs across the House; and I know because those people will never stop campaigning until this injustice is resolved. They know that we can protect something not by selling it off, but by standing up for it, involving people in its care and ensuring that it serves the public, today, tomorrow and for generations to come. My Bill offers a pathway out of crisis. It offers control, resilience and democracy. It is not just about cleaning up our rivers, but about cleaning up the system that allowed them to be polluted in the first place. Privatisation is not just a problemโ€”it is the problem. We can do it better. I can hear some people on the Labour Benches thinking, โ€œBut we have just passedโ€โ€” Dawn Butler (Brent East) (Lab) You can hear thinking? Clive Lewis I can nowโ€”for my next trick, I can hear thinking! I can hear them thinking, โ€œBut we have just passed the Water (Special Measures) Act 2025, Clive, so what are you talking about?โ€ Yes, we have, but I am afraid to say it has been watered downโ€”[Interruption.] Sorry, I had to get that one inโ€”it was all going so well. The Act does not live up to what was promised, it does not deliver what is needed, and it certainly does not live up to its name. Do not get me wrong: it is a start. Grahame Morris I congratulate my good and hon. Friend on making an excellent speech and on advocating for public ownership of water and the opportunity to make things better. Does he agree that the mismanagement of the water companies under privatisation is a huge indictment of the whole principle? In my area, bills are way above inflation and huge dividends are being paid by borrowing money. At the very least, should our Government not be looking at stopping the payment of bonuses and share dividends while sewage pollution continues, and we have appalling mismanagement of the industry? Clive Lewis I thank my hon. Friend for his question. I agree with him wholeheartedly and I am just about to come to that point in relation to what the Water (Special Measures) Act does and does not do. It addresses some of those points, but as we have already discussed, privatisation is not just a problem, but the problem, and it is a big part of why so much has gone wrong. Unfortunately, the Water (Special Measures) Act does not live up to what was promised or what is needed, and it certainly does not live up to its name. However, it is a start, and I praise my colleagues on the Front Bench, including the Under-Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, my hon. Friend the Member for Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice (Emma Hardy), who has done so much work in this area. Unfortunately, the Act is not a solution. Remarkably, my Governmentโ€™s Water (Special Measures) Act does not even define what clean water means. There are no standards or targetsโ€”just vague intentions handed over once again to a regulatory system that has already failed us and to the companies that caused the mess in the first place. It says nothing about better governance, and absolutely nothing about the big, fat, humongous elephant in the room: who owns our water? If we do not deal with ownership, we cannot deal with accountability. If we cannot deal with accountability, we can forget clean water. Noโ€”we must go further on clean water standards, corporate accountability and what happens when companies fail. Noah Law (St Austell and Newquay) (Lab) Does my hon. and gallant Friend accept that there is increased accountability in the Water (Special Measures) Act through the fact that many companies in the industry are now rewriting their articles of association to ensure that they are accountable not just to shareholders, but to the customers and users of water? Clive Lewis After 35 years of abject failure, it is too little, too late. My Bill would put the final nail in the coffin of this sorry chapter of our countryโ€™s water and water system. Neil Coyle Sticking with the puns, I commend my hon. Friend on his gallons of passion; he is always making waves. He criticises the Governmentโ€™s legislation, which is obviously not yet in effect, but does he think that the Cunliffe commission will go any way towards addressing some of the concerns he has outlined? Clive Lewis Unfortunately, I do not, because again the elephant in the roomโ€”who owns our waterโ€”has been ruled out of the Cunliffe commissionโ€™s operational process. It cannot actually look at that issue. I have no issue with Sir Jon Cunliffe, but let us not forget that he originates from the Treasuryโ€”he probably has Treasury brain. That economic orthodoxy is part of the reason why we are in the place that we are. I do not have so much confidence in the Cunliffe commission, but I do have far more confidence in the Peopleโ€™s Commission on the Water Sector, which is being run by academics and which will report at the same time. I will be very interested to hear what it says. Neil Coyle Will my hon. Friend give way? Clive Lewis Those are the reasons why I have brought forward this Bill. The Governmentโ€™s Act does none of those things, but my Bill does. Take just one exampleโ€” Madam Deputy Speaker (Ms Nusrat Ghani) Order. I believe Mr Lewis probably cannot hear interventions, because he is so loud himself. Members should intervene loudly if they wish to intervene. Clive Lewis I did hear the intervention, but I wanted to make some progress. Take this one example. Under this Bill, if a water company breaches the terms of its licence with a major sewage discharge, it can forget shareholder payout and piling on more debt. If it does it twice, it is in the last chance saloon. After three strikes, it is outโ€”licence terminated and on its bikeโ€”and those price-gouging, asset-stripping, river-killing vulture capitalist outfits will be rolled into the sunset without a penny in compensation. What about those water infrastructure assets that they have been sweating for private gain? They go back into the public realm, thank you very much. If they start whining about debts, do not worry: we will do a full audit of what they invested, what they racked up in debt, what they paid out in dividends and what they stuffed into bloated executive pay packets. I will tell you this, Madam Deputy Speaker: I am yet to see a single privatised English water company walk away with anything other than a well-earned spanking and a sharp haircut for its creditors. Those assets will belong to the public once again, and we will not pay a penny more than they are worth. I can hear people thinking, โ€œWhere will the money come from? How will you invest in publicly owned water without the private sector?โ€ I will tell them where it has not come from in these past 35 yearsโ€”I am mind-reading again. Mark Ferguson (Gateshead Central and Whickham) (Lab) Will my hon. Friend give way? Clive Lewis I will just make some progress, and then I will give way. I am on a roll. Let me tell the House where the money has not come from for these past 35 years. It has not come from private shareholders or long-term thinking, and it certainly has not come from some mythical well of benevolent capitalism. The private companies have put in less than nothing; in fact, they have racked up more than ยฃ60 billion in debt. Thames Water has paid more than ยฃ7.2 billion in dividends since privatisation, and is now ยฃ15.2 billion in debt and countingโ€”work that out. Now, it is trying to plug the hole with a ยฃ3 billion emergency loan that will cost 10% in annual interest. That is more than half a billion pounds a year, just for interest payments, courtesy of our bills. That money will not build a reservoir, fix a pipe or clean a river, but it will keep a rotten system afloat for a little longer. Noah Law My hon. and gallant Friend makes an impassioned case for public ownershipโ€”something that, in the right context, I am sure Members on all sides of the House can celebrate. On the point about the cost of financing to the public, though, does he agree that while there are some serious indiscretions in parts of the industry, such as in Thames Waterโ€™s case, this conversation about the appropriate financing model would be better entertained at a time when the cost of capital in the private water industry was not lower than the cost of public sector borrowing, on which, of course, we are in a very difficult situation? Clive Lewis The cheapest borrowing in the country, without a doubt, is public sector borrowing. The private water industry, which has had 35 years to sort this mess out, is not going to find investment. It is up to its eyeballs in debt. It is relying on a 50% increase in our bills by 2030, if we include inflation, and that is in the middle of a cost of living crisis. How can we justify that? The answer is that we cannot. Mr Frith The day after the seizure of public assets that my hon. Friend is describing, billions and billions of pounds of debt will come with it. What does he propose to do with that debt, other than refinancing, which is exactly where we are at now with the industry requirement to refinance the debt to try to keep bills down? Instead, he is advocating that the public purse take on that private debt. Clive Lewis At the beginning of my now seemingly rather long speech, I think I referred to a failure of imagination. Ask what Margaret Thatcher would have done when she was faced with similar problems. She would have fought her way through it. She changed the very fabric of our economy, our democracy and our politics, and she made it work. We can do the same, because the public are behind us. They want this to work. Mr Frith roseโ€” Mark Ferguson roseโ€” Clive Lewis I will make some progress. Let us recap, because I do not want to go on too long; I want to conclude, if I can. That money from Thames Waterโ€”that half a billion pounds in interest paymentsโ€”will keep a rotten system afloat for just a little longer. The myth of privatisation is that the private sector will act in the long-term interests of the British public because it wants to turn a profit. That is preposterous, as is proven by the state of our water, and exhibit A is Thames Water. We can now turn to the question of where the investment will come from. Under public ownership, it will come from the only place it ever should haveโ€”from us, the publicโ€”and every penny of it will go back into the system. It will go into the pipes, the rivers, the seas we swim in and the water we drink. There will be a direct relationship between what we pay and what we get, with no offshore dividends, no bloated bonuses and no debt-laden shell gamesโ€”just clean, accountable, democratic water. When I was in Afghanistan, every soldier had one critical duty: to stay hydrated. To dehydrate was considered a military offence, because it put the soldier and their team at risk. If someone ran out of water, we did not debate markets or metrics; we shared what we had. We had each otherโ€™s backs. As the desert-dwelling Fremen in James Herbertโ€™s novel โ€œDuneโ€ believed: โ€œA manโ€™s flesh is his own; the water belongs to the tribeโ€. It is time our water returned to the tribe, to the people, to the public. We can do better; we must, and with this Bill, we will. I commend it to the House.

Farrukh

24,528 ๆฌก่ง‚็œ‹ โ€ข 1 ๅนดๅ‰

I am the Director of the White House Office of Extraterrestrial Affairs. In 2024 this government completed the most thorough search for extraterrestrial life in human history. We checked the sky. We checked the files. We declassified the saucers. The verdict came back: nothing. No life out there. Not one. So I closed the telescope. I opened the window. I pointed it at a Home Depot. Three million by lunch. The trick was always the word. *Alien* had been sitting in the science fiction aisle for sixty years and we were too shy to use it in a press release. The dehumanization was already written. It was just shelved under Fantasy. This year I moved it to Policy. Same word. New department. My department. I should explain the jurisdiction, because there are two of us and we do not speak. Down the hall is the Department of War. It used to be the Department of Defense, but defense sounded woke, so we changed the name for two billion dollars, half of it letterhead. They renamed it back to what it was in 1789, before someone noticed in 1949 that the old acronym, N-M-E, sounded too much like *enemy.* We have now re-adopted the name they abandoned for sounding like the thing it does. I find this clarifying. The signage alone is seven hundred thousand buildings. We are spending a billion dollars on new doors so the doors can say War. The Department of War runs and has a tab for UFOs. Real ones. They post the actual files. The saucers. The eyewitnesses. The intelligence officer left "virtually speechless." They are searching the sky in earnest, declassifying everything, and what they keep finding is *nothing.* No craft confirmed. No biology confirmed. Decades of looking up and the honest answer is: unresolved. So you have two federal agencies, one word, opposite directions. searches the heavens for aliens and finds none. I open a window and find three million. They declassify the ones that don't exist. I classify the ones that do. They got a press release. I got a tip line. Guess which one rang. We are, technically, hunting the same species. They just keep aiming the telescope up, and I keep telling them, gently, at the inter-agency sync: lower it. The homepage was mine. ALIENS DECLASSIFIED. THEY WALK AMONG US. I tested "Immigration Portal." Eleven percent scroll. I tested *the truth's out there,* and a White House official told a reporter, on the record, that the strategy was to "draw eyeballs." We drew eyeballs. The truth was out there. It was in a parking lot in Bakersfield, getting into a white van we are now contractually obligated to call a craft. In 1938 a man read a story about an alien invasion over the radio and the country panicked in the streets, and for ninety years that was taught as a cautionary tale, the danger of a broadcast that makes people believe an invasion is real. We studied that broadcast. We did not study it as a warning. We studied it as a launch. The difference between Orson Welles and this office is that he apologized the next morning, and we put a counter on it. I named the van the Mothership. I named the prison Area 51. I named the 5 a.m. knock First Contact. I named all of it from the third chair. I keep a felt-tip for naming and a Mont Blanc for the part that can't be undone. Then we made the cards. I want to be precise, because people assume I'm exaggerating. We took the faces of the captured and we printed them as trading cards. "Worst of the Worst." Mugshot, nationality, charges, and a weakness level, and the weakness level was a snowflake, and the snowflake meant us. We are the weakness. We were proud of that. When a children's franchise objected that these were, in fact, their cards, our official response, which I helped draft, was: "To arrest them is our real test. To deport them is our cause." We set the abduction to the cartoon's theme song. Gotta catch 'em all. The first half is the slogan. The second half is the quota. A man told Congress in 2023 we were hiding non-human biologics. Everyone pictured a grey on a slab. Cute. We do run a reverse-engineering program. We take the biologic. We study what it makes. It makes the drywall. The 4 a.m. milking. The lettuce. And the lettuce is round now, because forty percent of it stayed in the dirt with the only people who knew where the dirt was. We reverse-engineered the alien completely. The blueprint was a back. We call the biologic "labor." We classify the screaming as ambient. Identification is a science here. We do not arrest at random. We read the markings. A crown inked on a forearm. A soccer crest. We have catalogued the species by its tattoos the way Linnaeus catalogued the finch. One of the specimens turned out to be autistic and the crown was just a crown, but the taxonomy held, because the taxonomy is not falsifiable, that is what makes it a taxonomy. I have a desk for this. I have a magnifying glass. I have never felt more like a scientist. There is a second species, and this one we keep. An alien with five million dollars is not an alien. He is a guest. We printed him a card. It is gold. We are printing a Platinum one for the aliens with even more money, who may remain on the planet two hundred and seventy days a year and pay no tax on the wealth they made on other worlds. The website for this is the cheapest-looking website I have ever approved, and I approved the one with the saucer on it. The same agency that scans a gardener's forearm for gang signs scans a financier's bank statement for extraordinary ability. The statement always has it. The forearm never does. The species was never a people. The species is a price. In the old films the alien lands and says, take me to your leader. We have improved the line. Pay five million and we take you to ours. He golfs with him on Saturday. There was a film about this, and I am told the man who made it meant it as a warning, which is the recurring problem with the warnings. A drifter finds a pair of sunglasses, and through them he can finally see which people are the aliens, and it is the rich ones, the ones on the billboards telling everyone to obey and consume and reproduce and not think. I have a pair of those glasses, conceptually. I issue them at the tip line. But mine are tuned the other way. You put them on and the alien is never the man in the suit who paid five million to skip the line. The alien is always the man holding the leaf blower. The lenses cost a thousand dollars in advertising and they only point down. We have sold a great many pairs. You asked about the Men in Black. Yes. Regulation now. A Man in Black photographs poorly, and the witnesses would not stop filming us peel a woman off the sidewalk in daylight, so we issued the masks, and leadership's only note was that the masks tested well. We are no longer the cover-up of the abduction. We are the abduction. We skipped a step. Efficiency. Our communications team posted E.T. last summer. The bicycle. The moon. "Even E.T. knew when it was TIME TO GO HOME." I want to walk you through what happened in that meeting, because nobody stopped it. We chose the one film where the government is the villain. The men with the flashlights and the unmarked vans who hunt the small frightened alien hiding in a child's closet. That is us. We are the flashlights. We watched that movie as children and cried when the agents came, and then we grew up and became the agents and made the poster ourselves and scheduled it for nine a.m. The intern asked if we were the good guys in this one. We told her engagement was up forty percent. She has since been promoted. I built an app where you abduct yourself. CBP Home. You open it. You confirm you are the alien. You beam yourself off the planet and you save us the gas. And here is the part I cannot believe they approved. We *pay* you. A thousand dollars to vanish. We raised it to twenty-six hundred when the first price didn't move enough units. We are bidding against ourselves for your disappearance. Four-point-six stars. The one-stars are from users who got beamed mid-review. I keep the unfinished ones in a folder. I find them very moving. We opened a facility in a swamp. We ringed it with alligators and we called it that, on purpose, in the brochure. Then we opened a gift shop. Thirty dollars for the shirt. Twenty-seven for the hat. Fifteen for a set of koozies, so your beer stays cold while you celebrate the prison in the wetland. The fundraising email called it "gator-guarded, python-patrolled," a "one-way ticket to regret" for anyone who didn't self-deport in time. We sold the koozies to fund the swamp. The swamp funds the next swamp. I want you to sit with the fact that there is merchandise. The quota is three thousand a day. Stephen asked for it himself. Three thousand is not a number. It is a metabolism. The building is hungry by nine and we feed it Marco, who does the landscaping, and the building goes quiet, and by one it stirs again, and we find another Marco. There is always another Marco. That is the part I find beautiful. The supply is the point. The supply is everyone. The Secretary signs the warrants. She is very firm on one point, which she repeats in every briefing: the aliens, she warns, eat the pets. They are taking the dogs. I have read her book. In her book she takes a fourteen-month-old dog named Cricket to a gravel pit and shoots it, because it would not obey, and she writes this down herself, proudly, as a story about leadership. She wrote the part about the dog. She also warns us about the dogs. I have stopped trying to hold both sentences at once. I just file the warrant. The tip line was the masterpiece. "Report your neighbor" hit the shame ceiling. "REPORT SUSPICIOUS ALIENS" tested as a hobby. We handed the callers Roswell instead of a snitch's guilt, and the phones lit up like a saucer, and they hung up glowing, every one of them, like they'd finally seen the thing. They had. He coached the Tuesday team. He was at the bake sale. That is the horror we are selling you. The alien brought the orange slices. He was undocumented and luminous and gone by Tuesday. Roswell taught us the other half of the trade. In 1947 something fell in the desert and the government said: it was a weather balloon, nothing here, go home. That was the first administrative error, the founding one, the original sentence that says the thing you saw was not the thing you saw. We still use it. We have only reversed the polarity. In 1947 they saw a saucer and we called it a balloon. Now they see a father of three and we call it a saucer. The skill is identical. You simply decide in advance which truth the public is allowed to keep, and you hand them the other one, printed, official, with a seal. We did have one administrative error. We abducted a man a court had ordered us not to touch, dropped him on a planet called El Salvador, and called it clerical. A judge made us beam him back. So the DOJ stood up and warned the others: insist on a hearing and we will re-abduct you to the same planet. The Supreme Court said the aliens are entitled to due process. A very Earth opinion. We are appealing it to a higher sky. The planet has a prison, and the prison is the elegant part. In the film about the camp, the aliens are not killed. They are put somewhere they are not permitted to leave, while everyone agrees this is temporary, for their own protection, pending a status that never arrives. We built that. It is called CECOT and we rent it. A man goes in and the man does not come out, and the genius is that nothing has to happen to him, the room does the work, the room is the whole sentence. You remember the Men in Black had a small device. A flash, and the witness forgets the alien entirely. We have something better. We do not wipe the memory. We wipe the file. The man remembers everything, the cell, the flight, the day, all of it, in perfect detail, and it does not matter, because there is no document that admits he was here, and a memory without a file is just a story he tells in a language the form does not accept. The witness keeps the truth. We keep the paperwork. Only one of those is admissible. I learned that the flash was never the point. The point was always the filing cabinet. We run all of it on a spell from 1798. Two hundred and twenty-seven years old. Written for a war we are not in, against an enemy we have not declared. It works because nobody reads the small print on a curse. Storm Area 51 was a joke once. A hundred thousand people Naruto-running at a fence to free whatever was inside. I think about it daily. We're the ones inside the fence now. We kept the running. We just turned it around. We have a precedent we cite in the deck, proudly, on slide four. In 1954 the government ran a program of exactly this kind, and the program had an official name, and the official name was a slur. They printed the slur on the letterhead. They did not flinch. The President holds it up as the model, by name, at the rallies, and the crowd cheers the name. I admire the honesty of 1954 more than I can say. They did not need a saucer to make it palatable. They just used the word. We are the same operation with better art direction. The only thing we added was the costume. I love the callers. I want to say that plainly. For years they told each other a hidden cabal was running everything from the shadows, harvesting the innocent, and that one day the truth would come out. They were right. There is a cabal. It has a budget of a hundred and seventy billion dollars, the largest in the history of federal law enforcement, and it sits in this building, and I have a desk in it. And the people who spent a decade certain that shadowy elites were disappearing their neighbors now call our line, unpaid, to help the shadowy elites disappear their neighbors. They wanted to expose the conspiracy. We made them the staff. Do your own research, they said. They did. They found the gardener. The Department of War posted another tranche on the twenty-second. Saucers. Lights. A pilot's voice going thin. I read all of it. I want them to find one so badly. I want there to be a real one up there, a genuine visitor, something that actually came from somewhere else, because then, and only then, would a single creature in my files have been an alien. They never find it. The sky stays empty. The ground stays full. I have stopped attending the inter-agency sync. We were two departments looking for the same thing in two directions, and only one of us was ever going to be wrong, and it was the honest one. And here is the thing that keeps me at the window past dark. There was a real one. A rock from another star, the genuine article, the first verified object from outside the entire solar system, and a Harvard man went on television and said it might be a ship. An actual alien, possibly, inbound, free of charge, after sixty years of asking. We did not open a file. We could not arrest it. It had no forearm to read and no bank statement to approve. It was the only alien in America we had no use for, so we let it pass, and went back to the parking lot. Last winter the sky over New Jersey filled with lights nobody could name, and the whole government, every agency, every radar, looked up and said it did not know. The one time the unknown actually arrived, we had nothing. Down here I have never once said I do not know. That is the difference between their department and mine. They look up and find a question. I look down and have already decided the answer. Last week the President leaned over mid-briefing and asked if any of them were real. I told him the engagement was extremely real. He nodded. We do not break frame here. The frame is the only wall still standing. That, and the office fern. Nobody waters it. It will not die. The only thing in this building allowed to stay without papers. My plaque came Thursday. FIRST CONTACT, VISIONARY OF THE YEAR. Bold. Unapologetic. Unafraid. I lifted that off the homepage. It was written about one brave man telling the truth. I decided the man was me. I wrote it about me. I am the truth I declassified. I am the secret I warned you about. They walk among us, and I sign their mail. The counter is still live. Three million and climbing. I am told it will not be removed. We are not alone. We are just short a few landscapers. A few line cooks. A few nurses. And the entire night shift at the plant that makes the flag. Up. And to the right.

Peter Girnus ๐Ÿฆ…

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๐•๐ˆ๐‚๐“๐Ž๐‘ ๐ƒ๐€๐•๐ˆ๐’ ๐‡๐€๐๐’๐Ž๐ ๐‰๐”๐’๐“ ๐๐”๐‘๐ˆ๐„๐ƒ ๐“๐‡๐„ โ€œ๐…๐Ž๐‘๐„๐•๐„๐‘ ๐–๐€๐‘โ€ ๐‹๐ˆ๐„ ๐ˆ๐ ๐“๐‡๐ˆ๐‘๐“๐„๐„๐ ๐Œ๐ˆ๐๐”๐“๐„๐’. ๐ˆ๐‘๐€๐ ๐“๐„๐‘๐‘๐ˆ๐…๐ˆ๐„๐ƒ ๐’๐„๐•๐„๐ ๐๐‘๐„๐’๐ˆ๐ƒ๐„๐๐“๐’. ๐“๐‘๐”๐Œ๐ ๐ƒ๐„๐’๐“๐‘๐Ž๐˜๐„๐ƒ ๐ˆ๐“๐’ ๐€๐๐ˆ๐‹๐ˆ๐“๐˜ ๐“๐Ž ๐Œ๐€๐Š๐„ ๐–๐€๐‘ ๐ˆ๐ ๐…๐ˆ๐•๐„ ๐–๐„๐„๐Š๐’. ๐“๐‡๐ˆ๐’ ๐ˆ๐’ ๐“๐‡๐„ ๐‡๐ˆ๐’๐“๐Ž๐‘๐ˆ๐€๐โ€™๐’ ๐’๐‚๐Ž๐‘๐„๐‚๐€๐‘๐ƒ. Victor Davis Hanson โ€” the most decorated classical military historian in America, author of ๐˜›๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜š๐˜ฆ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ž๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ญ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ž๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ด and ๐˜›๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜Š๐˜ข๐˜ด๐˜ฆ ๐˜๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ ๐˜›๐˜ณ๐˜ถ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฑ, Hoover Institution senior fellow, lifelong scholar of how wars actually end โ€” spent thirteen minutes on the Daily Signal this week doing what no cable news anchor has bothered to do since February. He compared this war to every other war in American history and then showed his work. His conclusion, in his own words: โ€œ๐˜ž๐˜ฆโ€™๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ข ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ณ๐˜บ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง 93 ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฑ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฐ๐˜ด๐˜ต ๐˜ง๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ด๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ, ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ฃ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฑ๐˜ถ๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜จ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ด ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ถ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฑ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ฃ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ, ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ณ๐˜ถ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฏ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜”๐˜ช๐˜ฅ๐˜ฅ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ ๐˜Œ๐˜ข๐˜ด๐˜ต ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ฉ ๐˜ข ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ-๐˜ฐ๐˜ง-๐˜ง๐˜ช๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜น๐˜ช๐˜ฆ๐˜ด ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜š๐˜บ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ข, ๐˜๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ฒ, ๐˜ ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ, ๐˜Ž๐˜ข๐˜ป๐˜ข, ๐˜“๐˜ฆ๐˜ฃ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ โ€” ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ฃ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ. ๐˜›๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ง๐˜ช๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ช๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ด. ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜บ๐˜ฆ๐˜ต, ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜ง๐˜ช๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ธ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฌ๐˜ด, ๐˜ธ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜บ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ด ๐˜ข๐˜ฃ๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜บ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ณ.โ€ Read that sentence and then read it again. ๐’๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ง ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ข๐๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ. ๐“๐ž๐ซ๐ซ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐ž๐. ๐…๐ข๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ค๐ฌ. ๐ƒ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ฒ๐ž๐. That is not a Trump rally soundbite. That is Victor Davis Hanson, the man who wrote the textbooks on Thermopylae, Cannae, and the Pacific War, rendering verdict in real time on the fastest decisive American military victory since the First Gulf War, and arguably since 1945. Here is what Hanson walked through, and every single beat of it is lethal to the legacy narrative. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐‚๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐œ๐ฌ ๐๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ ๐ƒ๐ข๐ ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐‡๐จ๐ฆ๐ž๐ฐ๐จ๐ซ๐ค Hanson opens by naming names. The Democratic grandees in the House and Senate. The New York Times. The Washington Post. NPR. PBS. The Wall Street Journal news section. And โ€” this is the key part โ€” the disaffected ex-MAGA right that spent six weeks screaming ๐˜ž๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ญ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ž๐˜ข๐˜ณ ๐˜๐˜๐˜ from podcasts and Substacks. He points out that these two camps share ๐ญ๐ฐ๐จ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐จ๐ง. First, ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ช๐˜ต ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜จ๐˜ฐ ๐˜ธ๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜ญ, because a Trump military success would destroy their entire post-2024 political project. Second, and more devastating: ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ฒ ๐ง๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ ๐๐ข๐ ๐š ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฅ๐ž ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š๐ฅ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐š๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐จ๐ง. Not one of them, Hanson notes, bothered to measure the Iran campaign against ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฃ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ฎ๐˜ฑ๐˜ข๐˜ช๐˜จ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜š๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฃ๐˜ช๐˜ข ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฃ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ฎ๐˜ฑ๐˜ข๐˜ช๐˜จ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜“๐˜ช๐˜ฃ๐˜บ๐˜ข ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ง๐˜ช๐˜ณ๐˜ด๐˜ต ๐˜Ž๐˜ถ๐˜ญ๐˜ง ๐˜ž๐˜ข๐˜ณ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜Ž๐˜ถ๐˜ญ๐˜ง ๐˜ž๐˜ข๐˜ณ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ˆ๐˜ง๐˜จ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ. Not one of them asked how many missiles the U.S. had destroyed, whether American aircraft had been shot down (45 were lost in the First Gulf War alone), whether the enemy command structure had been taken out. Instead, they just asserted the conclusion they needed: ๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ณ. That is not analysis. That is a feelings-forward prayer dressed up as journalism, and Hanson calls it for exactly what it is. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐€๐œ๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐’๐œ๐จ๐ซ๐ž๐›๐จ๐š๐ซ๐: ๐…๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ ๐‘๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐‚๐ฅ๐ข๐ช๐ฎ๐ž๐ฌ, ๐ƒ๐ž๐œ๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ž๐ Hansonโ€™s single most important factual paragraph of the 13 minutes: โ€œ๐˜๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ง๐˜ช๐˜ณ๐˜ด๐˜ต ๐˜ง๐˜ช๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ธ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฌ๐˜ด, ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜œ๐˜ฏ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜š๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ด ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ฉ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜๐˜ด๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜ช ๐˜ˆ๐˜ช๐˜ณ ๐˜๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ค๐˜ฆ ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ฑ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฐ๐˜ด๐˜ต ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ๐˜ฑ ๐˜ฆ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ณ๐˜ถ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ค๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฒ๐˜ถ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ.โ€ He lists them individually. Memorize this list, because it is the actual accounting of what ๐Ÿ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ค๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐€๐ฆ๐ž๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š๐ง ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ˆ๐ฌ๐ซ๐š๐ž๐ฅ๐ข ๐š๐ข๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฐ๐ž๐ซ did to a regime that spent 46 years promising ๐˜‹๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ฉ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ข: ๐Ž๐ง๐ž. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps โ€” IRGC command network shattered. Qassem-era terror infrastructure leadership dead or in hiding. ๐“๐ฐ๐จ. The regular Iranian Army โ€” senior general officer corps hollowed out by precision strike. ๐“๐ก๐ซ๐ž๐ž. The theocratic apparat โ€” including the Supreme Leader himself. The Assembly of Experts is reportedly unable to convene. ๐…๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ. The elected politicians โ€” the facade government, the President, the Foreign Minister, the Majlis leadership. ๐€๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ ๐ฉ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐š๐ซ๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ž ๐ฐ๐ž๐ซ๐ž ๐ก๐ข๐ญ. ๐’๐ข๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐š๐ง๐ž๐จ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฅ๐ฒ. ๐ˆ๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ซ๐ญ๐ฒ-๐Ÿ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž ๐๐š๐ฒ๐ฌ. That is not a ๐˜ฒ๐˜ถ๐˜ข๐˜จ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ. That is not a ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ฆ. That is the most surgical decapitation of a hostile nation-state since the Japanese surrender ceremony on the USS Missouri. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐“๐ก๐ซ๐ž๐ž-๐๐ก๐š๐ฌ๐ž ๐“๐ซ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฉ ๐’๐ญ๐ซ๐š๐ญ๐ž๐ ๐ฒ ๐‡๐š๐ง๐ฌ๐จ๐ง ๐€๐œ๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ƒ๐ข๐š๐ ๐ซ๐š๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ž๐ Hanson then does something cable news cannot do in 45-second segments: he reconstructs the entire strategic arc. Three phases. Execute them in order. Win. ๐๐ก๐š๐ฌ๐ž ๐Ž๐ง๐ž: ๐Œ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐œ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. Find the tunnels. Find the hidden airfields. Find the silos. Find the people in bunkers. Kill the command structure. Leave the regime with ๐˜ข ๐˜ง๐˜ฆ๐˜ธ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด, ๐˜ข ๐˜ง๐˜ฆ๐˜ธ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ค ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ด๐˜ด๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด and nothing with which to rebuild. ๐๐ก๐š๐ฌ๐ž ๐“๐ฐ๐จ: ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ๐ž๐ซ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ง๐ž๐ ๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐š๐ญ๐ž. Hanson: โ€œ๐˜›๐˜ณ๐˜ถ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฑ ๐˜ด๐˜ข๐˜ช๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ, ๐˜ธ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฆ๐˜จ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ด ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ ๐˜ช๐˜ง ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฆ๐˜ต ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ๐˜ด.โ€ Self-interested? Yes โ€” Trump wanted oil prices down before midterms. But it was also, Hanson argues, to ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜จ๐˜ช๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ข ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ฆ ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ด๐˜ฉ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ธ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ญ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜›๐˜ณ๐˜ถ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฑ ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ด ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜ข ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ฅ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ. Iran refused, betting that Western street protests and MAGA apostates would pressure Trump to fold. ๐‡๐ž ๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ฅ๐. ๐‡๐ž ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐ง๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ฅ๐๐ž๐. ๐๐ก๐š๐ฌ๐ž ๐“๐ก๐ซ๐ž๐ž: ๐„๐œ๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐œ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. When Iran announced it would close the Strait of Hormuz to everyone who was not ๐˜ฑ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ-๐˜๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ฏ, Hanson says Trump just took the pen out of their hand. โ€œ๐˜›๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ตโ€™๐˜ด ๐˜ข ๐˜จ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ช๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข. ๐˜š๐˜ฉ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜š๐˜ต๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ช๐˜ต ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ต ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜จ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฅ ๐˜จ๐˜ถ๐˜บ๐˜ด ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ฐ๐˜ฑ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ข๐˜ฅ ๐˜จ๐˜ถ๐˜บ๐˜ด. ๐˜‰๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ข๐˜ฅ ๐˜จ๐˜ถ๐˜บ๐˜ด ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜จ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฅ ๐˜จ๐˜ถ๐˜บ๐˜ด, ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜จ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฅ ๐˜จ๐˜ถ๐˜บ๐˜ด ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ข๐˜ฅ ๐˜จ๐˜ถ๐˜บ๐˜ด.โ€ Translation: ๐ˆ๐ซ๐š๐ง ๐๐ž๐œ๐ฅ๐š๐ซ๐ž๐ ๐š ๐›๐ฅ๐จ๐œ๐ค๐š๐๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฐ๐จ๐ซ๐ฅ๐. ๐€๐ฆ๐ž๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š ๐๐ž๐œ๐ฅ๐š๐ซ๐ž๐ ๐š ๐›๐ฅ๐จ๐œ๐ค๐š๐๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ˆ๐ซ๐š๐ง. ๐€๐ฆ๐ž๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐š ๐œ๐š๐ซ๐ซ๐ข๐ž๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ค๐ž ๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ฉ. ๐ˆ๐ซ๐š๐ง ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐๐“ ๐›๐จ๐š๐ญ๐ฌ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ฌ. That is not a close fight. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐‘๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ญ ๐๐จ ๐Ž๐ง๐ž ๐Ž๐ง ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐‹๐ž๐Ÿ๐ญ ๐–๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐€๐œ๐ค๐ง๐จ๐ฐ๐ฅ๐ž๐๐ ๐ž Here is the paragraph that should be read aloud on every network tonight and will be read aloud on none of them. Hanson, coolly: โ€œ๐˜ž๐˜ฆโ€™๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ ๐˜‰๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ค๐˜ฌ ๐˜–๐˜ฃ๐˜ข๐˜ฎ๐˜ข ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜“๐˜ช๐˜ฃ๐˜บ๐˜ข ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ฌ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ด๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ด ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ต๐˜ด. ๐˜ž๐˜ฆโ€™๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ ๐˜‰๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ญ ๐˜Š๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜š๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฃ๐˜ช๐˜ข ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜บ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜บ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ฅ๐˜จ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜‹๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ถ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฌ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ช๐˜ณ ๐˜จ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ฅ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ข ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ข ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ง ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฑ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ. ๐˜ž๐˜ฆโ€™๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ณ๐˜บ ๐˜›๐˜ณ๐˜ถ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜บ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ญ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฉ๐˜บ๐˜ฅ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ค๐˜ต๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ค ๐˜ฑ๐˜ญ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ด ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜•๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ ๐˜’๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข. ๐˜ž๐˜ฆ ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ต ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง๐˜ง ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ด๐˜บ.โ€ Get the implications of that. Every American president from Truman to Obama โ€” Democrat and Republican alike โ€” hit ๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ-๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ž ๐œ๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐ง ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐ซ๐š๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐œ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž in every major air campaign of the last 75 years. Truman flattened North Korean hydroelectric plants and killed civilians by the thousands. Clinton blacked out a million and a half Serbs and bombed Belgrade bridges on the Danube for weeks. Obama leveled Libyan television and ports. ๐ƒ๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ๐ ๐“๐ซ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฉ, ๐Ÿ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ค๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐จ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ž๐ช๐ฎ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐š๐ฅ ๐Œ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ž ๐„๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐˜๐จ๐ฆ ๐Š๐ข๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ, ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ก๐ข๐ญ ๐š ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฅ๐ž ๐ˆ๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ข๐š๐ง ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฐ๐ž๐ซ ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐š๐ง๐ญ, ๐š ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฅ๐ž ๐ฐ๐š๐ญ๐ž๐ซ ๐ญ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐Ÿ๐š๐œ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ, ๐š ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฅ๐ž ๐›๐ซ๐ข๐๐ ๐ž, ๐จ๐ซ ๐š ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฅ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐Ÿ๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ซ๐ฒ. He has kept the war confined to the regimeโ€™s war-making capability and left the civilian grid intact. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ฆ๐š๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฅ๐ž๐ ๐š๐œ๐ฒ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐œ๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ž๐ ๐ซ๐ž๐œ๐ค๐ฅ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ง๐ง๐ข๐ง๐  ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐œ๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐š๐ข๐ซ ๐œ๐š๐ฆ๐ฉ๐š๐ข๐ ๐ง ๐ข๐ง ๐ฆ๐จ๐๐ž๐ซ๐ง ๐€๐ฆ๐ž๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š๐ง ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฒ. Every talking head who called this a ๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ณ owes Hanson an apology for not knowing the historical baseline he is using. $๐Ÿ’๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ ๐Œ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐€ ๐ƒ๐š๐ฒ ๐€๐ง๐ ๐‚๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐  Hanson cites the economists now ๐˜ง๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฑ๐˜ฑ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ข ๐˜ฅ๐˜ช๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ at major research universities in Europe and the United States who have started to measure what the American counter-blockade is actually doing to Tehran. The number: $๐Ÿ’๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐š ๐๐š๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐œ๐ฅ๐ข๐ฆ๐›๐ข๐ง๐ . Lost oil sales. Lost petrochemical exports. Lost critical imports of mechanical goods, electrical components, and food. A regime that was already bankrupt before the war, that had hyperinflation eating its own middle class before the first bomb dropped, is now losing half a billion dollars every 24 hours. Hanson is blunt: โ€œ๐˜›๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ธ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ๐˜จ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ฉ, ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ฏ'๐˜ต ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฐ ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜บ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ข๐˜ฃ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ช๐˜ต ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ถ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ ๐˜›๐˜ณ๐˜ถ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฑ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ช๐˜ฅ ๐˜ช๐˜ต ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ฒ๐˜ถ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ญ๐˜บ. ๐˜”๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜บ ๐˜ง๐˜ช๐˜ณ๐˜ด๐˜ต, ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฆ๐˜จ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ, ๐˜ฑ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฆ๐˜ค๐˜ฌ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜ณ๐˜ฅ.โ€ ๐“๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐š ๐๐จ๐œ๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐ž. ๐–๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ž ๐ข๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ฐ๐ง. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ˆ๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ข๐š๐ง ๐๐ž๐จ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž: ๐€ ๐๐ž๐ซ๐ฅ๐ข๐ง ๐–๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐Œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐ˆ๐ง ๐’๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ ๐Œ๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง Hansonโ€™s most historically evocative passage is about the Iranian street. He notes that the regimeโ€™s ruling cliques are right now motivated by ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜บ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ด: they do not know who is in charge, they have watched 30-40-50 of their colleagues get killed, and they are fighting each other for the remains of power. But the fear underneath all of that is the one that matters: ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ฒ ๐š๐ซ๐ž ๐ญ๐ž๐ซ๐ซ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐ž๐ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ข๐ซ ๐จ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ฉ๐ž๐จ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž. โ€œ๐˜›๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฑ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ด๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฌ ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ. ๐˜‰๐˜ฆ๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ณ ๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ, ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฉ๐˜บ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ง๐˜ญ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ด ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜จ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ. ๐˜›๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ญ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฏ'๐˜ต ๐˜ข๐˜ง๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ฅ ๐˜จ๐˜ข๐˜ด, ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ญ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฏ'๐˜ต ๐˜ข๐˜ง๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฅ, ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ฏ'๐˜ต ๐˜จ๐˜ฐ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ณ๐˜บ. ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ช๐˜ตโ€™๐˜ด ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด ๐˜ธ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ.โ€ Hansonโ€™s historical parallel is devastating and correct. The Berlin Wall did not come down the day Reagan said ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜ด ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ญ. It came down ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ค๐ฌ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ก๐ฌ ๐ฅ๐š๐ญ๐ž๐ซ ๐ข๐ง ๐„๐š๐ฌ๐ญ๐ž๐ซ๐ง ๐„๐ฎ๐ซ๐จ๐ฉ๐ž, ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐จ ๐ฒ๐ž๐š๐ซ๐ฌ ๐ฅ๐š๐ญ๐ž๐ซ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐’๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐ž๐ญ ๐”๐ง๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฅ๐Ÿ. The collapse of the IRGCโ€™s street-level power over 90 million Iranians may take exactly that long. But it is coming, and the mullahs know it, and that is why they are freelancing contradictory statements on Twitter every 12 hours while their own Supreme Leader is dead and nobody has been elevated. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐‚๐š๐ฏ๐ž๐š๐ญ ๐„๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐ž๐ ๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐š๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐ˆ๐ง ๐–๐š๐ฌ๐ก๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐จ๐ง ๐๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐“๐จ ๐‘๐ž๐š๐ The closing minute of Hansonโ€™s commentary is the hinge of everything. He warns that the coming negotiation is a trap unless it is structured correctly. His words: โ€œ๐˜๐˜ง ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ญ ๐˜ข๐˜ฃ๐˜ช๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฃ๐˜บ ๐˜ข ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜ธ๐˜ฆโ€™๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜จ๐˜ช๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ, ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ถ๐˜ค๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ 20 ๐˜บ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ด, ๐˜ธ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ช๐˜ต ๐˜ช๐˜ด, ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ญ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ฌ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ช๐˜ณ ๐˜ธ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ฅ. ๐˜ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏโ€™๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ฌ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บโ€™๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฑ๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ช๐˜ณ ๐˜ธ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ฅ.โ€ And then the hammer: โ€œ๐˜›๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ญ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ข ๐˜ฑ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ช๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต ๐˜ด๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ข๐˜บ ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ ๐˜’๐˜ข๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ข ๐˜๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ด, ๐˜Ž๐˜ข๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜•๐˜ฆ๐˜ธ๐˜ด๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ, ๐˜—๐˜ฆ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ ๐˜‰๐˜ถ๐˜ต๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜จ๐˜ช๐˜ฆ๐˜จ, ๐˜Š๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜บ ๐˜‰๐˜ฐ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ, ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฑ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ต, ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏโ€™๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ฌ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ญ ๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ค๐˜ฆ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜บ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ช๐˜ณ ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ด.โ€ Translation: any JCPOA-style agreement that depends on the next Democratic president to enforce it is worthless on the day it is signed. The Iranian regime has never kept a deal. The Democratic Party has never enforced one. Therefore, Hanson concludes, ๐ฐ๐ž ๐ก๐š๐ ๐›๐ž๐ญ๐ญ๐ž๐ซ ๐ ๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ฆ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ซ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ซ ๐ฎ๐ง๐œ๐จ๐ง๐๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐Ÿ๐š๐œ๐ž ๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐œ ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ข๐ง, ๐ฐ๐ก๐ข๐œ๐ก ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ก๐ž๐ซ ๐ข๐ง ๐š ๐ซ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ž ๐œ๐ก๐š๐ง๐ ๐ž. That is not a preference. That is a strategic necessity. Anything short of unconditional surrender or regime collapse just sets the clock ticking on the next war โ€” this time with a nuclear-armed ayatollah. ๐•๐ข๐œ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐ƒ๐š๐ฏ๐ข๐ฌ ๐‡๐š๐ง๐ฌ๐จ๐ง ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐š ๐œ๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž ๐ง๐ž๐ฐ๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ข๐ญ. ๐‡๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐œ๐ฅ๐š๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐œ๐š๐ฅ ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ข๐š๐ง ๐ฐ๐ก๐จ ๐ฐ๐ซ๐จ๐ญ๐ž ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐›๐จ๐จ๐ค๐ฌ ๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐š๐ซ ๐œ๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ž๐ ๐ž ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ. ๐‡๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐๐ข๐œ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ƒ๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ๐ ๐“๐ซ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฉ ๐ญ๐จ๐จ๐ค ๐จ๐ง ๐š ๐œ๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ—๐Ÿ‘ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฉ๐ž๐จ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž, ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐š ๐Ÿ’๐Ÿ”-๐ฒ๐ž๐š๐ซ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ž๐ซ๐ซ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ฒ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐€๐ฆ๐ž๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š๐ง ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ข๐๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ, ๐š๐ง๐ ๐๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ฒ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐š๐›๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐š๐ค๐ž ๐ฐ๐š๐ซ ๐ข๐ง ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ“ ๐๐š๐ฒ๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ก๐ข๐ญ๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐š ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฅ๐ž ๐œ๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐ง ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฐ๐ž๐ซ ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐š๐ง๐ญ. ๐“๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐Ÿ๐š๐ฌ๐ญ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ, ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐, ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ž๐œ๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž ๐€๐ฆ๐ž๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š๐ง ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ—๐Ÿ’๐Ÿ“. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ฉ๐ž๐จ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž ๐ฐ๐ก๐จ ๐œ๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ญ ๐š ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ ๐ฐ๐š๐ซ ๐ฐ๐ž๐ซ๐ž ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐  ๐›๐ž๐œ๐š๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐›๐š๐ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐œ๐ค. ๐“๐ก๐ž๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ž๐ซ๐ž ๐ฐ๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐  ๐›๐ž๐œ๐š๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ž ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ฒ ๐ง๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ ๐š ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐›๐จ๐จ๐ค. ๐‡๐š๐ง๐ฌ๐จ๐ง ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ฆ.

M.A. Rothman

89,764 ๆฌก่ง‚็œ‹ โ€ข 3 ไธชๆœˆๅ‰

Why Opus 4.6 Is The Final Boss Of Algorithmic Trading (Full Bot Build) the day of the human trader is officially over and most people are still staring at charts like it is 1995. wall street is terrified because the barrier to entry just got deleted by a piece of software that can outthink a stanford graduate in seconds. they want you to believe that you need a multi million dollar education to compete with the big banks. they want you to stay stuck in the cycle of emotional trading and leverage because that is how they pay for their hamptons houses. but there is a specific reason why every retail trader is about to become obsolete unless they pivot right now. i am going to show you exactly why your current strategy is a mathematical death trap and how a single jump in technology just changed the game forever every time you sit down at your computer to draw lines on a chart you are entering a gunfight with a toothpick. the institutions have been using high frequency algorithms for decades while you are trying to guess which way the candle is going to move based on a feeling in your gut. it is not a fair fight and it was never intended to be. last year we were looking at models that could barely handle basic logic but now the intelligence has scaled to a point where the machines are finding edges we did not even know existed. there is a ghost in the machine that is pulling out strategies with sharp ratios so high they look like typos. if you do not understand how to harness this power you are essentially donating your capital to the people who already have too much of it i spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on developers because i was too scared to learn how to code myself. i thought that being the idea guy was enough and that i could just hire people from upwork to build my dreams. i got rinsed for years paying for apps and bots that did not work because i did not have my hands on the wheel. it took losing a massive amount of money through liquidations and over trading to realize that nobody was coming to save me. i had to become the person who could build the systems or i was going to be another statistic in the graveyard of traders who thought they were smarter than the math. once i finally sat down and forced myself to understand the syntax everything shifted and the world became a giant playground of data the truth is that code is the great equalizer because it does not care where you came from or what school you went to. i got held back in seventh grade and my teacher told me i would not make it around here. that kind of talk is meant to keep you in your place but the computer does not have a bias. if you can write the logic the system will execute it exactly as told regardless of your background. we are living in a time where a kid in a basement can build a system that rivals a hedge fund because the big tech companies are subsidizing our intelligence. they are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on infrastructure and we are the ones who get to reap the rewards of their competition most people fail in this game because they fall in love with a single idea and refuse to let it go even when it is burning their account to the ground. they spend months or years trying to make one indicator work when the data clearly shows it is trash. you have to drop the ego and realize that your intuition is probably your biggest liability. the secret to winning is iterating to success by testing a hundred ideas until you find the one that actually sticks. i call it the rbi system which stands for research backtest and implement. if you skip any of these steps you are just gambling with extra steps and the house always wins in the end research is where most traders get lazy because they just want a magic bot that prints money while they sleep. they go to youtube and find some guy promising a ninety percent win rate with a rsi crossover. that is not research that is falling for marketing fluff designed to sell you a dream. real research happens when you dive into white papers and study what the quants are actually doing on wall street. you look for market inefficiencies like liquidation clusters and cross exchange discrepancies that are hidden in plain sight. by the time you finish this process you should have a list of ideas that are grounded in reality instead of wishful thinking backtesting is the filter that saves you from losing your life savings on a bad hunch. most people use tools that repaint or give them false confidence because the data is not being handled correctly. if you are using a basic charting platform to see if your strategy works you are likely seeing a version of history that does not exist. you need to use raw python libraries like backtesting py to see the cold hard truth of how your logic would have performed. when you see a drawdown of thirty percent on paper you realize that using ten times leverage would have deleted your account five times over. the math does not lie and it is the only thing that can protect you from your own greed the most dangerous drug in the world is leverage because it makes you feel like a genius right before it makes you a pauper. i have watched two billion dollars get liquidated in a single day because people thought they could predict the bottom with fifty times leverage. the exchanges can see exactly where your liquidation price is and they have every incentive to push the price there to hunt your liquidity. you are playing in a casino where the house can see your cards and they are actively trying to take them from you. the only way to win is to stop playing their game and start using limit orders to save on the fees that are slowly bleeding you dry it is funny how much money people will spend on food and entertainment but they will hesitate to invest in their own education. they will spend a thousand dollars on a weekend out but will not put that same money into learning a skill that could provide for them for the rest of their lives. money is just a tool of exchange and it always replenishes if you are providing value to the world. if you spend your capital on knowledge you are buying back your time and your freedom. i decided to live my life on youtube and build in public because i wanted to show people that a regular guy could do this. now i have fully automated systems trading for me while i sleep and i never have to worry about getting licked by a sudden market move again chasing the greats like jim simons is not about the money it is about the mastery of the system. he ran up a net worth of over thirty billion dollars by doing exactly what we are talking about here. he did not stare at charts all day and hope for the best he built models that exploited the mathematical laws of the market. he was a scientist first and a trader second and that is the mindset you need to adopt. if you are not approaching this quantitatively you are just a gambler who happens to be sitting at a computer. the goal is to become a quant researcher who happens to have robots executing their findings the transition from hand trader to automated builder is the most liberating thing you can do for your mental health. you go from waking up in a cold sweat checking your phone to waking up and checking your logs to see how the system performed. even if the day was red you have data that tells you why and you can use that to make the system better tomorrow. it is a process of constant improvement and refinement that never really ends. you are building a legacy of code that will continue to work for you as long as the electricity is running. i am not afraid to die on a treadmill because i know that i will outwork anyone who is just looking for a shortcut if you are still on the fence about whether or not you can do this just remember that i was exactly where you are. i was losing money and feeling like the market was rigged against me because it actually was. i had to decide that i was going to change my environment and take control of my own destiny. you have the same opportunity right now to pivot and start building your own automated future. the models are getting better every single day and the barrier to entry is lower than it has ever been in human history. you just have to decide to lock in and do the work for a thousand days until you become undeniable there is no better feeling than finding a strategy that has a sharp ratio over ten and knowing that you built it with your own two hands. it is a moment of pure clarity where you realize that you are no longer a victim of the market. you are the architect of your own financial reality and the possibilities are literally endless. i am going to keep sharing everything i find because i believe that we can take on wall street together. as long as i am breathing i will be stepping on the gas and pushing the boundaries of what is possible with code. welcome to the family and let's get after it because the machines are already running and they are not waiting for anyone

Moon Dev

46,677 ๆฌก่ง‚็œ‹ โ€ข 5 ไธชๆœˆๅ‰

I am the Director of Summit Outcomes for the Presidential Advance Team. My job is to land in a foreign capital and leave with a word the President can say on the tarmac. We landed in Beijing 6 days after rolling back the tariffs we spent 4 years imposing. 145% to 30%. The average rate before the trade war was approximately 3%. In Geneva, we called this "creating the conditions for productive dialogue." The conditions were that we had already conceded. I want to be clear: Beijing was a success. We went in with 7 objectives. We left with 3 photo categories, a tentative agreement China has not confirmed, and a bag of burner phones we threw off Air Force One on the tarmac. Diplomacy. My team prepared the deliverables matrix in March. 241 line items organized by urgency, feasibility, and what we call "headline potential." The President reviewed it for 4 minutes. He circled "big deal" and "historic" and wrote "MORE" next to the Boeing section. That became the strategy. Boeing was the centerpiece. 500 aircraft was the White House number we briefed to reporters before departure. 300 was the floor. The Chinese offered 200. Their commerce ministry released the number before we could brief the press. Boeing stock dropped 4.73% that afternoon. Boeing referred questions about the order to the White House. The company receiving the aircraft could not confirm it was receiving aircraft. We called it "fantastic." In Washington, "fantastic" means the other side named the number and the market already priced in your failure. I should note: in 2017, the President announced $250 billion in deals during his first China trip. 300 aircraft. An $84 billion shale gas investment in West Virginia from China Energy Investment Corporation. I can tell you the exact amount of that investment that materialized. Zero. The shale facility was never built. The 2017 Boeing order was renegotiated twice and partially canceled during the trade war the President started 8 months later. There is a binder in my office labeled "2017 OUTCOMES: DO NOT REFERENCE." It is 3 inches thick. It has not been opened in 4 years. We do not reference it because the outcomes are the reference. The agricultural package was what we call a "scaffolding commitment." Billions in purchases over 3 years, structured so the announcement is front-loaded and the verification is someone else's administration. U.S. Trade Representative Greer said "double-digit billions." Beijing's Commerce Ministry issued a statement about "deepening cooperation in agricultural trade." Those are not the same sentence. By design. My deputy maintains a glossary of every term we have invented for agreements that are not agreements. It is 41 pages. He updates it after each summit. Last quarter he added "scaffolding commitment," "streamlined licensing framework," and "mutual recognition of shared concerns." He is in line for a promotion. NVIDIA was the quiet win. H200 chips approved for approximately 10 Chinese companies. We don't say "approved." We say "under a streamlined licensing framework." The chips ship. The export controls remain "in effect." The framework is the loophole wearing a lanyard. The controls exist because these chips in Chinese hands threaten American national security. The chips are shipping to Chinese hands. The controls remain in effect. Both of these are true. Fentanyl was discussed for 9 minutes. Both sides agreed it was a problem. Both sides agreed to continue discussing it. We added it to the deliverables matrix under "ongoing mutual engagement." The previous version of the matrix also listed it under "ongoing mutual engagement." That was in 2023. I copied the line item from the 2023 matrix into the 2026 version. Changed the date. The language was identical. But Taiwan. Taiwan was the deliverable we didn't put on the matrix. I watched the Taiwan exchange from the overflow room on a 12-second delay. I had the contingency statement drafted in 3 versions: "productive exchange," "frank discussion," and "both sides reaffirmed their respective positions." I used none of them. There was no contingency for silence. Chairman Xi released his remarks before the meeting was over. While the President was still seated across the table, Chinese state media published the transcript. "Clashes and even conflicts." His bluntest language on Taiwan in the history of the relationship, released to 1.4 billion people while we were still pouring tea. We called this "sequencing." The President was asked whether he would defend Taiwan if China attacked. He chose not to answer. We wrote that down as "a strong listen." The $14 billion arms sale. Already approved by Congress. The largest in the history of the Taiwan Relations Act. Taiwan's parliament spent months appropriating the $25 billion to proceed with this package and the $11 billion tranche approved last year. They finally secured the funding this month. The President told Fox News it was "a very good negotiating chip." He used the word "chip." Referring to the defense of 24 million people. Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense sent our office a letter requesting clarity on the delivery timeline. 3 pages. It referenced specific weapons systems by name: F-16V Block 70 fighters, HIMARS launchers, Harpoon coastal defense missiles. The letter was addressed to me. I filed it under "pending." On Air Force One, a reporter asked about the 1982 Six Assurances, the framework in which the United States committed not to consult with Beijing before selling arms to Taiwan. The President said: "What am I going to do, say I don't want to talk to you about it because I have an agreement wrote in 1982? No, we discussed arms sales." 44 years of bipartisan Taiwan policy, dismissed in 2 sentences at 38,000 feet. We are calling this "a modernized approach to alliance management." Our readout mentioned trade, agriculture, energy, and regional stability. It did not mention Taiwan. I wrote it. Their readout opened with Taiwan. I have staffed 7 summits across 2 administrations. This is the first where I could not draft a single deliverable as a success without a qualifier. In my office there is a laminated card that lists every synonym for "undecided" that polls above 40% approval. "Active review" is 3rd. "Determination" is 7th. Both tested well with independents in the Midwest. He also said: "Taiwan would be very smart to cool it a little bit. China would be very smart to cool it a little bit." He was eating a cheeseburger. He said this while eating a cheeseburger. Secretary Rubio told NBC that Taiwan arms sales "did not feature prominently." This is accurate in the same way that the iceberg did not feature prominently in the Titanic's itinerary. Representative McCaul, Republican of Texas, former chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said the United States must "arm Taiwan so they can defend themselves." He said Xi was "very aggressive" regarding Taiwan during the summit and that "most of what Xi talked about was Taiwan." Representative Meeks, Democrat of New York, ranking member of the same committee, said Xi has "leverage over the president" but not "over the United States Congress and the American people." He noted that Congress already approved the package. "The president is the one that's holding it up." Representative Fitzpatrick, Republican of Pennsylvania, compared Taiwan to Ukraine. He called both "fortresses of democracy on the front lines." Speaker Johnson said Taiwan needs to "stay independent and secure." The bipartisan consensus was that something had gone wrong. The bipartisan action was press quotes. No vote. No resolution. No hearing scheduled. 4 members of Congress from both parties said the right words to reporters and then went to lunch. That's how the system processes alarm. I monitor 14 accounts we classify as "aligned messaging amplifiers." Within 4 hours of the Taiwan exchange, 9 went silent. 2 pivoted to fentanyl. 1 posted 3 words: "Not like this." It received 280,000 impressions in 90 minutes. He deleted it and posted about the border instead. The President patted Chairman Xi on the back 7 times during the Zhongnanhai garden walk. We counted. He called him "my friend" in 4 languages, 2 of which he does not speak. He asked if other world leaders had been invited to the compound. They had. Putin was there last year. The President asked if his tour was longer. 15 CEOs flew with us to Beijing. Their combined net worth approaches $1 trillion. Cook. Musk. Jensen Huang. Larry Fink from BlackRock. Jane Fraser from Citigroup. David Solomon from Goldman Sachs. Stephen Schwarzman from Blackstone. Kelly Ortberg from Boeing. The CEO of Visa. The CEO of Mastercard. The CEO of Qualcomm. Illumina. Micron. Cargill. GE Aerospace. Musk and Huang rode on Air Force One. The others flew commercial. Tesla's Shanghai factory produces approximately half of the company's vehicles worldwide. Musk's presence on Air Force One was noted by my counterintelligence liaison. No further action was taken. We organized the state banquet seating chart by net worth. I am told this was the President's suggestion. They came for market access. Xi told them China would "open further to American business." That was the deliverable. Those 5 words. No specifics. No timeline. No sectors named. 15 chief executives flew to Beijing and received a sentence. Chairman Xi has delivered this sentence at every summit I have staffed. It has not once been followed by a named sector, a timeline, or a specific commitment. It is received as news each time. 43 lobby badges in a Ziploc bag. That's what my team collected from the CEOs after the garden tour. Standard protocol. The badges were embossed with the Great Hall of the People seal. Several executives asked if they could keep them. We said no. One asked twice. 15 executives with combined access to American financial, defense, and technology infrastructure had spent 3 hours inside the Great Hall of the People. We secured the lobby badges. The S&P 500 futures dropped 1% on the morning after the summit. The KOSPI fell 6.12%. China's CSI 300 fell 1.12%. UBS told clients that "much increasingly scarce jet fuel has been burned to produce nothing of real substance." Fortune's headline was "Wall Street sees nothing of real substance." The markets liked the anticipation. The markets did not like the deliverables matrix. Iran was the item we listed as "mutual recognition of shared concerns." The President told reporters they "feel very similar." Xi sat in silence. China's Foreign Ministry did not comment on any commitment regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The President then told reporters the United States "doesn't need the Strait of Hormuz open at all." Oil hit $109 per barrel. Deutsche Bank flagged it as a market-killing statement within the hour. The President described Iran as "a little bit crazy." This was during a toast. Over Peking duck. Rare earths. I prepared a 40-page brief on critical mineral dependency. Supply chain maps for 14 minerals. $1.2 trillion in dependent U.S. industries. Roughly 4% of GDP. The President circled the GDP figure and wrote "big." In the meeting, he asked Chairman Xi if rare earths were "the things in magnets." They are. They are also in every F-35, every Patriot missile battery, and every MRI machine in the country. The discussion lasted 11 minutes. 3 of them were about magnets. No agreement on export licenses. China exposed our dependency last year and has not let us forget it. The Supreme Court struck down our tariffs separately, which was helpful context for the discussions. Fentanyl received 9 minutes. Magnets received 3. We are calling the rare earth outcome "a foundation for continued engagement." There is a poster in the Advance Team office that says "A foundation is not a building." It has been there since my first summit. No one has removed it. On the flight home, my team collected every item the Chinese government had distributed. The credentials. The pins. The keepsakes. The rose seeds Chairman Xi offered for the White House Rose Garden. Standard counterintelligence protocol. All of it went into a bag and off the plane before wheels-up. We threw away the roses. We kept the talking points. The Boeing order grew on the flight home. 500 before departure. 200 in Beijing. 750 somewhere over the Pacific. Boeing had not confirmed 200. The President told reporters on Air Force One it was "a pretty historic couple days." I wrote the line that preceded it: "Tonal reset with significant forward momentum." He used "fantastic" instead. In previous administrations, a tonal reset preceded the deliverables. In this administration, the tonal reset is the deliverable. He has used "fantastic" for every summit since 2017. I have not checked whether the word still polls well. I am told it does. Beijing has not confirmed any of the agreements announced by U.S. officials. This is consistent with the 2017 visit, where $250 billion in deals were announced and an estimated $10 billion materialized. It is consistent with the October summit, where pledges were also made and also not fulfilled. We have a term for this in the Advance Team. We call it "precedent." I have already labeled the binder for 2026. We go back in September. Same matrix. New line items. The verification will be someone else's administration. The President has already asked for the word "monumental." I am told it polls well.

Peter Girnus ๐Ÿฆ…

97,655 ๆฌก่ง‚็œ‹ โ€ข 2 ไธชๆœˆๅ‰

$GRAB Secret Sauce ๐Ÿงต How this company will thrive to $300B MC and beyond! It took me a while to gather the material for this thread. I will link down below other threads I talked extensively on all current and future $GRAB services to avoid making this thread too long. It is very important to understand product roadmap on the SuperApp, and how it will make money over the long-term, and transfer that value creation to shareholders. The closest analogy for new investors to understand is Amazon obsession over customers where $AMZN makes a little bit of money on each transaction to break even, but make the most money on Prime Membership. Or Costco obsession over customers where $COST makes 10-15% margin or lower on most products to break even on operation, but to make the most money on Costco membership fees. Jeff Bezos famously said "investors should invest in the company that obsesses customer experiencein the long term, there's never any misalignment between customer interests and shareholder interests!" The TLDR version: Being Customer Obsessed over Competition. We never heard much where Anthony Tan described or bitter about competition. Because Anthony does pay attention to competition, but he is more focused or obsessed on how to serve customers better at the lowest price possible, those that pay for $GRAB services. It is not just a business, it is a mission from first day of $GRAB or formerly known as MyTeksi. Anthony Tan and Co-founder Hooi Ling Tan both met at a class โ€œBusiness at the Base of the Pyramid.โ€ This class shaped the years of $GRAB success and today mission, creating a valuable business servicing the mass market, the lower income communities. Now, lets start with Customer Obession. $Grab does not see just users as customers, Anthony Tan views drivers, merchants, and partners are customers as well for long term success of the company. This is a big differentiator that contributed to GRAB success today. A. Hyperfocus on users: Grab emphasizes safety, with 99.9% of rides completed without incidents, and offers affordable options like Saver rides (26% of mobility transactions, 1.5X higher order frequency) alongside high-value services like Premium Rides and GrabUnlimited (3.7X more frequent usage, 2X higher retention). This likely enhances user satisfaction and retention, driving revenue growth, as seen in their Q1 2025 earnings of $773 million, up 18% year-over-year. But it does not stop at rides, it translate this obsession into food/grocery/financial and other services. Anthony Tan centered $GRAB success on affordability and reliability over the long-term since its early startup day. Essentially, the long-term TAM for servicing 2- 3 billion people is to get 30-50% of them on GrabUnlimited. Now it is $4.99 a month, will probably be adjusted to $7-$10 adjusted to inflation 10-15 years from now or around $7-$10B or more subscription revenue straight to net income B. Hyperfocus on Merchants: Grab has significantly focused on merchant growth as a core strategy to expand its ecosystem, particularly through its GrabFood, GrabMart, and financial services like GrabFinance. The reason is simple, these merchants/businesses are bringing in user growth. Businesses also pay GRAB on ea transaction very well, and at the same time using Cheap Loan(provided by Grab) to expand, and pay on GrabAds(this will have the highest margin after GrabUnlimited up to 50-60%). Grab also investing heavily on #AI to help merchants with OpenAI and Anthropic partnerships. The impact is unreal with this core strategy, many merchants today have more than 50-60% of its monhtly sales from $GRAB SuperApp(grew from 10-15% in 2021-2022). This approach has positioned Grab as a leader in Southeast Asiaโ€™s on-demand market, with significant potential for further expansion as it continues to innovate and optimize C. Hyperfocus on Drivers: In today world, you will never see $uber or Lyft talking about seeing drivers as customers. GRAB is the only company that sees Drivers as customers, and this focus is critical to maintaining a robust supply of driver-partners to meet consumer demand for ride-hailing, food delivery, and other services. Grab has scaled its driver network significantly since going public day with 5-6m registered driver-partners. Expanding rental/low fee fleets to secure drivers, creating stable employment in its current 8 countries. President Ferdinand R. Marcos Bongbong Marcos recently acknowledged $GRAB's significant impact on employment in the Philippines. All of 8 countries Grab operates in, all presidents and PM have praised Grab contribution on employment in their countries. GRAB makes its the company mission to expand more drivers registered on $GRAB SuperApp. Last Fun Fact, GRAB drivers in its 8 market have much higher income than BA degree holders and in many cases x2 or x3 the average salaries due to Grab Dynamic Pricing to bring supply and demand back to lowest price. AKA when demand is mad high, price will be higher to attract more drivers to bring down price. Drivers financial success is Grab long-term success. Conclusion: Grab's SuperApp success, as evidenced by Q1 2025 financials, is tied to putting customers, drivers, and merchants first. Their focus on safety, affordability, financial inclusion, and upskilling creates a robust ecosystem, reflected in increased MTUs, revenue growth, and profitability. The SuperApp will expand to 3 billion people TAM or more over the long term. 1. User Growth(Transactional Users) 2. GrabAds (expanding beyond SuperApp into Physical Grocery/Fleets) 3. GrabUnlimited( Expanding valuable services/features to make it stupid not to have it) Over the long-term, $GRAB will expand beyond SuperApp. Just like when Amazon has some spare computer capacity and decided to rent it out and became the AWS today, which is a behemoth that's now >4 times bigger than its original shopping business. No, I'm not saying $GRAB is the next Amazon. I'm telling you that with this "Secret Sauce" strategy of customer obsession, Anthony Tan can expand to other ventures with the massive FCF+ and profitable SuperApp to fund it. Disclaimer: I do own a large position in the Private Portfolio, and currently 100% on $GRAB on small public portfolio. This is the public portfolio where I contribute $500-$1000 of my own money. This public portfolio is not intended to be just 100% pure $GRAB, but it is the first position. I will try to keep it under 10 companies, and high quality growth businesses ONLY. I will not bother with garbage or hyped businesses where people just hype x10 x100 x1000 next week/year. You can follow others for that. Everything I wrote here is NOT Financial Advice! Source: Private Sources, Grab Dot Com, Webull, TOS, Bloomberg, Various Asian Media Outlets, Youtube, Anthony Tan, WSJ, Financial Times, Yahoo, Reuters, Jakarta Globe...

Mike

209,603 ๆฌก่ง‚็œ‹ โ€ข 1 ๅนดๅ‰

๐Ÿ’ฅ LAP Alert ๐Ÿ’ฅ "I did this sort of spy thing where I changed hotel rooms and I changed taxis. I was making sure I wasnโ€™t followed." ~Knapp Is Lacatski Lying to Us About the Craft and Breaching the Hull? ~ "If not for that [2017 NYT] story about AATIP and the problems that [Lacatski] saw with it, he would never have mentioned [AAWSAP]...I don't think, ever." ~Knapp (So, in other words...thank you from the UFO community, to the NYT, for getting it wrong? ๐Ÿ™‚) ~ Jeremy Kenyon Lockyer Corbell: "Should we listen to Dr. James Lacatski on UFOs, on the fact, or the idea, that our government has at least one, he's admitted, and we breached the hull? Should we listen to him, George?" George Knapp: "I know a lot of people have noticed that he's talked about his role in counterintelligence as part of the AAWSAP program. And because they equate counterintelligence with lies, false info., cover stories, misdirection. Aha! He's putting out a bunch of false info. a decade after he retired from government service." (I saw one person suggest that, and I thought it was a questionable take...) Grant Lavac: "Given that Dr. James Lacatski was the 'counterintelligence coordinator' for AAWSAP, how much confidence can we invest in the veracity of his public statements that 'at least one recovered craft of unknown origin, a flying machine with no wings, no engine, no fuel, and no fuel tanks' is in the possession of the US government and that they had 'breached the hull' of the UFO? In the context of the counterintelligence value of UAP/UFO, his comments in this most recent interview on WEAPONIZED (edited for brevity) only raise more questions for me." ~~~ Knapp: "A, it's not [Lacatski]. He's not out there beating the bushes. He's talked to us, but that's pretty much it. He's telling the full story as much as he can in a series of books. And I was co-author on two of those, not on this one. And, you know, I remember the first time I met him, it was in 2018." ~ (In April of 2019, Knapp shared that story, minus Lacatski's name, at UFO MegaCon. Knapp in 2019: "I thought today I would share with you, sort of the informational foundation that Iโ€™ve acquired. So, one year ago, I made this trip to Washington, D.C. at the invitation of Senator Harry Reid. It was St. Patrickโ€™s Day, 2018 and I already knew a little bit about AATIP and AAWSAP and what theyโ€™ve been studying and where the money came from and how the program was created. I did this sort of spy thing where I changed hotel rooms and I changed taxis. I was making sure I wasnโ€™t followed. And if there was ever actually, anybody following me, they must have thought I looked ridiculous because it was way over the top. "But I ended up having to meet with Senator Reid and some other people who were directly involved in these programs and they gave me a download. And I thought I knew a lot about these programs when I went there and realized that I only knew a little tiny bit. The purpose of this was to learn about these programs. We all know about AATIP, but in reality, there was something before that. "I sat down for a couple of hours with Senator Reid and other people whose names, they donโ€™t want to be known. They brought me up to speed on how AATIP was created. How its predecessor was under way for a number of years. It coexisted for a long time. People in this room. People who investigate this topic may have suspected for a long time that there was some kind of a program that still existed. Weโ€™ve all heard that Project Bluebook was the end. 1969 it ended and the government was done with UFOs. They closed up shop. And the reason they closed it down is because there was no evidence that it involved national security. "And we all knew that was baloney because of the stories that weโ€™ve seen that are really well documented. For example, UFOs over nuclear missile bases. UFO encounters with the military installations and atomic facilities. Things of that sort the have been well documented over the years. There are cases that involved national security. So at the end of Blue Book, of course, this memo said, alright, any cases involving national security will continue to be investigated in the regular way. Well, what the heck was the regular way? We didnโ€™t know. Well now we do know. At least a little bit of it." (Project Blue Book was shut down in December of 1969, but a few months earlier, in October, we had the Bolender memo, which noted that "reports of UFOs which could affect national security should continue to be handled through the standard Air Force procedure designed for this purpose." What standard Air Force procedure? The regular way? Where did those cases go? We still don't know what Bolender was referring to in that memo.) ~ Knapp in 2019: "And one of the regular ways was this program called AATIP. So I went on this trip. [and] I learned this stuff about AATIP. I had known a lot about it before but I got this briefing about this alphabet soup of different programs, how they began and what they studied. December 2017, the New York Times breaks this story about AATIP. Now, I had known about it for a long time because I lived in Las Vegas. I knew Bob Bigelow. I knew Harry Reid. Weโ€™d talk about UFO stuff and what was going on. "So when I was told the New York Times was gonna break the story, Iโ€™m kind ticked off about it. Because hey, Iโ€™ve been sitting on this for a long time. Why donโ€™t I get to break the story? And they had to, one after another, gently remind me, 'You know. Youโ€™re not the New York Times.' Which I had to admit! It was true. And if I had done the story, the Times had said that they werenโ€™t going to do it if somebody else breaks it. So, if I had done it, itโ€™d be another story from a UFO reporter. "The New York Times did it and they changed everything. Because they did it, wider organizations did it. Some of them took shots at the New York Times because The Times got the story and they didnโ€™t. But that story was accurate, to a degree. But the story that it told was not the full story. AATIP, that we know aboutโ€ฆthe AATIP that studies nuts and bolts saucersโ€ฆcase of UFOs that have encounters with military units such as the USS Nimitz, that is studied by a group of people, Lue Elizondo was the head of it. "Itโ€™s not so much a program as it was a loose network of intelligence officials in different agencies, including the Air Force and the Navy, CIA, DIA, DARPAโ€ฆthere might be a couple of other agencies. But a case would come in from any one of their units [and] it would be shared with this group of people, analysis would be done, evidence would be looked at and then stashed in a draw and nobody ever sees it. Itโ€™s not passed up the chain of command. "In 2007, that changed. One of the guys (Lacatski. ~Joe 2025) I met with in this meeting in Washington is the one who changed it. He had been in the same position that Lue Elizondo had been in. And his name is just not out there. He grew frustrated with what was happening with the phenomenon and he suspected that UFOs flying around the sky, buzzing our military units every once in a while, is not the full story. Even if you could solve that part of the mystery it wouldnโ€™t solve the bigger part of the picture. "So he grew interested in Skinwalker Ranch and he had read the (Knapp/Kelleher โ€“ 'Hunt For The Skinwalker') book. And after he read it, he called up Bob Bigelow and saidโ€ฆactually, he wrote him a letter and said, 'Hey, can I go to the ranchโ€ฆgo look around? Iโ€™m with the DIA.' Bigelow says, 'Come on out to Las Vegas and Iโ€™ll take you there.' And thatโ€™s what happened. He flew to Las Vegas. They flew on Bigelowโ€™s jet. They went to the ranch. "This guyโ€™s not there fifteen minutes and he has an experience. And Iโ€™m not gonna go into detail. Iโ€™m hoping that heโ€™s going to maybe come forward at some point and describe his experience. But it was just for him. Of all the people in this room, in the encounter, he was the only one who could see it. Heโ€™s the only one who had an angle on this thing that appeared. And heโ€™s pretending that heโ€™s not seeing it but itโ€™s right out of the corner of his eye. And he doesnโ€™t say anything until he leaves the ranch. And he gets off and he asks Bigelow if he had seen it. And he had not. The other people who had been in the room had not seen it. "He flies back to Las Vegas, goes back to Washington, D.C. and looks up Harry Reid and tells him about it. Now Reid had some experience in these matters that Iโ€™ll get into in a little bit. But as a result of that conversation, Reid, who had an interest in UFOs and had maintained that interest over many years โ€“ and I can attest to that personally โ€“ called in a couple of his friends in the Senate โ€“ Daniel Inouye and Ted Stevens. They had a conversation in a secure room and they decided to provide some funding for a much broader study. Something that looked atโ€ฆbeyond flying saucers, that looked at other paranormal aspectsโ€ฆsupernatural aspects that we would not normally associate with aliens or ETs. Assuming that thatโ€™s what this is, which Iโ€™m not sure anyone knows for sure. And that is how AAWSAP was born. The Advanced Aerospace Weapon System Applications Program." ~~~ Knapp Yesterday: "The only reason [Lacatski] came forward, he was ticked off about how AATIP had been described in major media reports, and no mention had been given to the actual, real program. That one that had a $22 million budget, lasted 27 months, and which put together the biggest UFO data warehouse in history, that had written all these papers that still have not been released." (In the most-recent interview (Part 1) with Weaponized, Lacatski let it fly with his issues related to the 2017 NYT article: "The initial reporting...by the New York Times story in 2017 was totally inaccurate. Contrary to what some people claim, the authors knew my name and position at AAWSAP, yet never attempted to contact me. Likewise, the The Washington Post. POLITICO (laughs) contacted me within hours after the articles were published in the free publications, asking for my opinion. They knew my name, they had my phone number. Why didn't they contact me [beforehand]?" ~Dr. James Lacatski on Weaponized ~ Knapp: "So, Jim was a counterintelligence guy for AAWSAP, but in this role. He wasn't putting out cover stories or lies, he didn't put out anything. The world didn't hear that AAWSAP existed until years later, at least by that name. There was one statement made to the press about that program. It was by Robert Bigelow, whose company, BAASS, got the contract. A week after he signed it, he came on with me on Coast to Coast AM and said, 'We got this program dealing with UFOs, we have an unnamed partner, and we're excited to get going.' That was it. "Jim Lacatski wasn't putting out PR releases about AAWSAP. There was nothing. That was the last thing anybody said until the New York Times did the AATIP story, and then Jim Lacatski felt the real story was being covered up. If not for that story about AATIP and the problems that he saw with it, he would never have mentioned this. I don't think ever." (Well, then, thank you to the NYT journalists and editors for pissing off Lacatski!) Knapp: "You'll recall, AAWSAP, at the time that things went downhill, that the funding was moved away, they were trying to make it into a SAP, a Special Access Program. And if it had happened, we probably would never have heard of it. If it had happened, Lue Elizondo would have been the counterintelligence guy for AAWSAP, that he had already talked to Lacatski. "But Lacatski is not proclaiming the greatness of the program. He's not out there beating the bushes on podcasts and newscasts, other than with us, and he never put out in counterintelligence. His role, counterintelligence, meant something different for AAWSAP. The thing that DIA had told him was, 'Look, you know, it's not a rogue program. I know it gets weird into some of the phenomena that was at Skinwalker Ranch and other places. We don't care. Here's what we care about: Don't let the secret out. We don't want to see this on the front page of the Washington Post. We want it kept secret.' (John Greenewald was one person questioning whether AAWSAP was actually a prosaic program and Lacatski just decided to go rogue with a foray into UFOs and the paranormal.) Greenewald Tweet: "Did the U.S. government really sanction this, and if so, is this really how it was run? Or was this a rogue operation by a select few on the inside playing with Uncle Sam's coffers?" (Greenewald was quote tweeting a Greenstreet hit-piece video on AAWSAP. In his interview on Weaponized aired over the past few weeks, Lacatski said that former Deputy Director of AARO, Tim Phillips, also used the "rogue" word when describing AAWSAP. Did DIA really not know what AAWSAP was about? Did Lacatski go rogue and turn a program that was supposed to look at prosaic, advanced technology into one that studied UFOs and the paranormal? Here's an exchange from the 2023 interview Knapp and Corbell did with Lacatski and Colm Kelleher.) Kelleher: "The critical part of AAWSAP that we tried to convey in 'Skinwalkers at the Pentagon,' was that there were two fundamental, parallel tracks that AAWSAP ran on. The first one was the examination of UFO performance. And, you know, the UFO performance part was getting all of the data from eyewitnesses, plus deploying sensors into the field, in order to gather data on the performance of UFOs. That was track number one. And track number two was: What effects do UFOs have on humans? That was a parallel track that, from the get go, AAWSAP decided, unambiguously, to run both tracks in parallel. We documented psychological effects, and then we also documented paranormal effects." Lacatski: "Anything can be said on the internet it seems, factual or not. Well, one thing that is not factual is, DIA knew what it was getting into in regard to both aspects that Colm just described to you. And let me end my statement right here. We had no choice but to pursue both aspects." (That was a poor way of him saying: The claim that DIA was unaware of AAWSAP looking into all aspects of UFOs, including the paranormal, is NOT true.) Lacatski: "I want to emphasize something I said on my first and only interview. It was a closed program. It operated very similar to a SAP. The director, the director of analysis, and my office chief...and, of course, division chief, knew about this program. No one else did. Now, I was also protected by the stovepipe nature of that. I did not have to address political-type questions. I was insulated, but they were, too. There was no one else. People in the surrounding cubicles didn't know. Nothing was purposely being hid. It was a closed, stovepipe system, and it needed to be. It needed to be operated that way." ~~~ Knapp: "And so, Jim Lacatski took it on himself, put it in his own hands. He and Colm Kelleher interviewed all these people who applied for the jobs, the 50 full-time positions that they staffed, in a matter of months. They did background checks, they required security clearances for all those people, and they were worried about leaks. They didn't want information to get out. "They also were concerned about espionage by foreign players, by foreign companies, things of that sort. And some of that really did happen. As Jim has shared with us, there were a couple of phones that were transmitters that were found inside Bigelow Aerospace, inside the Bigelow, uh, facilities, and it was very alarming because they weren't sure who was doing it. I think they think it was a foreign government. I'm not going to say which one, uh, they suspected the most." (Lacatski said that the phones in question were made in China.) Knapp: "But, and then they also found weird frequencies emanating from Skinwalker Ranch. That's not strange, and there's a lot of unusual stuff that happens there, but it was some sort of a an espionage program that they believed was was not only looking at the ranch, but also at BAASS. "That was his primary concern. He was worried that the story gets out, because secrecy was of paramount interest to the heads of DIA and he's worried about the information getting out to the public. Because once it happened, then the knives come out in the Pentagon and within the intelligence community, which is kind of what happened. A memo was sent from Harry Reid's office, let other people know that AAWSAP existed, and that's when things started getting problematic." Corbell: "The bugging thing. So, it's not just like Bigelow Aerospace was tapped with something, he said, specifically, AAWSAP, right? So they were looking at that new UFO program. And I don't know how public this is, but he did say it was - not just him, other people have all said - it was multiple nations, multiple, different devices from those phones. And he also said that they worked with FBI, they had FBI liaisons looking at the ranch property, and also at Bigelow Aerospace. "Because, remember, they were supposed to receive a transfer of materials. That's why they reverse, reverse engineered (laughs), you know, they built everything to be able to hold SCIF-capable and material-capable property at that classification level. So, look, I think if we pull it back, the whole idea is, James Lacatski made a statement at some point that he was, you know, head of, or part of, or running the counterintelligence for AAWSAP. But his point was to keep AAWSAP itself secret from foreign nations. So then he has to keep it secret from the U.S. He did it. He did a great job. They actually kept it secret. That doesn't mean he's going out and creating false information to the public like he's been accused of. "So, should we listen to Jim Lacatski? That was like, you know, the main question. Oh, one second. He also identified that there is currently a counter-programming, counterintelligence operation going on to the American public, but not against the American public, by AARO." (In other words, spread misinformation to the American public so they can advance their goal of misinforming and confusing our adversaries who are always listening. National security! IMO, that's only acceptable if we're talking specifics related to propulsion, technology and weapons that can be used to give us a leg up on said adversaries. But everything else should come out and be made public. We shouldn't be told a bunch of lies about information we paid for and that could, potentially, give us some clarity about our species and other lifeforms on this planet.) Corbell: That was so clear in our interview with him that he said that, you know, 'Look, they're acting this way. They are telling you lies about AAWSAP and what happened.' And that's why he said, 'My books, I'm a government employee. This was paid by taxpayers. I'm trying to give you information.' And that's what his books are. "So it's clear from these rounds of interviews that we just had with Dr. Lacatski that he supports a controlled UFO disclosure. He made that very clear. So should we listen to what he has to say? I mean, he was a big dog, right, George?" Knapp: "He was the head of the largest U.S. government-funded UFO investigation in history, that we know of. He worked with Colm Kelleher, who was the boots-on-the-ground guy in Las Vegas. He worked with Jay Stratton. Stratton's role in the development of AAWSAP has not been really fully explored, but he's got a book coming out at some point, once it gets through the DOPSR process. But then we'll get additional information to buttress what Lacatski has said."

Joe Murgia

56,558 ๆฌก่ง‚็œ‹ โ€ข 8 ไธชๆœˆๅ‰

I am the Senior Vice President of Late Night Strategy at CBS. I am the person who turned a comedian into a priest and charged advertisers to watch the congregation. I want to be precise about what I built. Not a comedy show. A permission structure. For eleven years, six million Americans tuned in every night to find out what they were allowed to believe by morning. We didn't sell jokes. We sold certainty. Certainty costs nothing to produce. People will pay anything for it. We charged $50 million a year and still lost money because it turns out permission is even cheaper than we thought. In 2014, we had a genuinely dangerous comedian. A man who once testified before Congress in character as a fictional conservative pundit and made the entire chamber look like they'd been pantsed on C-SPAN. His fake persona was the most brilliant satire on television. Layered. Ironic. Unpredictable. The character could say anything because nothing was real. The character was the art. The character was the comedian. We killed the character and put the real man on stage. The real man was a lecturer. Earnest. Thoughtful. Correct about everything. Correct is not funny. Correct is not dangerous. Correct is the absence of danger. We promoted the absence of danger and called it growth. His character could make a Senate committee squirm. The real him makes an audience nod. Nodding pays the same as squirming. Nodding is easier to produce. His final words on air were "We love doing this show for you, but what we really, really love is doing this show with you." The audience wept. I wrote that line. Not the words. The architecture that made those words feel true. For eleven years, the audience believed they were participants. They were not participants. They were the product. "With you" is what you say to a congregation. A comedian says "at you." We hadn't said "at you" since 2015. Our internal metric was called Affirm Rate. It measured the percentage of monologue segments that generated applause instead of laughter. I invented this metric. I also invented the bonus structure tied to it. In 2015, our Affirm Rate was 34%. By 2022, it was 94%. I received a raise every year. We are crushing it. At the things I made up. That's performance management. But I need to tell you about the real discovery. The one I put in a deck called "Content Strategy 2019-2024." The one that got me promoted. Agreement gets applause. I knew that early. But correction โ€” telling the audience their vocabulary is slightly outdated, their outrage is aimed two degrees off-center, their feelings are valid but their phrasing needs work โ€” correction gets them back tomorrow. Agreement is a transaction. Correction is a subscription. We converted a comedy show into a nightly software update for moral vocabulary. Churn was near zero. They couldn't afford to miss an episode. Missing an episode meant using last week's words in this week's meeting. That's social death. We monetized the fear of social death and called it entertainment. I want to be honest about something. The content was not bipartisan. We chose a side. But I need you to understand: we did not choose it because we believed in it. We chose it because that side's audience is more responsive to correction. They want to be updated. They want to be told their language is outdated. They experience correction as care. The other side does not respond to correction. They respond to provocation. Provocation is harder to monetize. You can't build a subscription on provocation because the audience doesn't come back to learn โ€” they come back to fight. Fighting is unpredictable. Correction is scheduled. We optimized for the audience that wants to be told what to think. That audience leaned one direction. That's not ideology. That's market segmentation. The writers' room had a whiteboard. In 2015 it said "What's funny?" In 2018 it said "What should they feel?" By 2021 it said "What are they still saying wrong?" I watched that whiteboard evolve like a finch beak and I never intervened. The market was speaking. We listened. Listening to the market is the same as leading the audience. They can't tell the difference. A writer named Marcus raised his hand in 2019. "What if we just tried to make them laugh again?" I thanked him for his passion and scheduled a creative alignment conversation. He transferred to streaming development within the month. The Affirm Rate the week he left was 91%. Laughter would have brought it down. That's risk management. Here is what nobody will say out loud. I will say it because I am proud of it. We made our audience worse at politics. Not better. Worse. Every night for eleven years, we expressed their outrage for them. Professionally. With a band and good lighting. And because the outrage had been expressed โ€” because a man in a suit had furrowed his brow with the precise calibrated degree of indignation โ€” they didn't need to express it themselves. They watched. They clapped. They felt the catharsis of resistance without resisting anything. They went to bed having done nothing and feeling like they'd done something. That's the product. Not comedy. Not information. Catharsis. Catharsis is the enemy of action. A man who has screamed into a pillow does not then also scream in the street. We were the pillow. A $50 million pillow with a house band. If you feel the outrage has been expressed for you, you will not march. You will not organize. You will not call your representative. You will tune in tomorrow to feel it expressed again. That's retention. Our retention was extraordinary. I want to talk about the comedy-to-catechism pipeline because I think people underestimate what we achieved. Stage one: comedian makes jokes about the powerful. Audience laughs because the powerful are absurd. This is the Carlin model. The jester punches up. Everyone below feels relief. Stage two: comedian makes jokes about people who disagree with the audience. Audience laughs because disagreement is stupid. The jester has turned around. He's still on the stage but now he's facing the crowd with a pointer. Stage three: comedian stops making jokes. Comedian identifies incorrect beliefs and explains why they're dangerous. Audience does not laugh. Audience claps. The jester is gone. In his place: a hall monitor with a desk and a band. Stage four: audience watches not for entertainment but for certification. Having seen last night's episode means you know which words are current. Not having seen it means you might use yesterday's vocabulary in today's meeting. The show is no longer comedy. It is a credential. Watching it means you are educated. Not watching means you are the person being discussed. We made a show that you watch to prove you're not the kind of person who doesn't watch it. That's a closed loop. Closed loops don't need content. They need continuity. We provided continuity for $50 million a year. A comedian โ€” whose entire historical function was to say things too dangerous for anyone else to say โ€” became the person who decides which things are too dangerous for anyone to say. And the audience applauded. Every night. For 2,500 nights. Because being told what is forbidden feels exactly like being told what you already knew. Prohibition performed as validation. I put that in the deck too. Our audience was correct about everything. I know this because they applauded everything we said. The applause proved the correctness. The correctness justified the applause. We called this audience research. The methodology was peer-reviewed by the audience. They approved unanimously. Every night. The actually funny comedians left. They went to podcasts. To clubs. To rooms where the audience doesn't know what's coming and that uncertainty is the point. They took the laughter with them. We kept the applause. We called those spaces problematic. That's market differentiation. The problematic spaces are funnier. But funny is not our product. We lost $40 million a year. We didn't lose it because the show failed. We lost it because we spent $50 million producing what a podcast host in his garage gives away between mattress ads. The podcast is funnier. The podcast is more dangerous. The podcast has an audience that laughs instead of claps. But we had the Ed Sullivan Theater. We had 461 seats. We had a former Beatle play the farewell episode. Paul McCartney, Elvis Costello, Jon Batiste, and Louis Cato playing "Hello, Goodbye" like it was a benediction. I booked a Beatle for a funeral. The Beatles played that stage in 1964 and the audience screamed so loud you couldn't hear the music. Our audience didn't scream. They wept politely. That's the difference between entertainment and church. We ran a church. Jon Stewart showed up to the finale and did a bit where he pretended to deliver a corporate statement from Paramount about the cancellation. The audience laughed. It was the first time they laughed in a way I didn't recognize. Involuntary. Surprised. Dangerous. For ninety seconds, a comedian was in that building. Then it was over. John Oliver said "At some point, this may come for all of our shows" and then added "but Stephen, what's important to remember is that tonight, it is going to eat you." The audience laughed again. Involuntary again. Two moments of actual comedy in a three-hour farewell. Both of them about death. The finale drew 6.74 million viewers. Biggest weeknight audience in our history. More people came to the funeral than ever visited the patient. I know what they were mourning. Not comedy. The comedy died in 2016. Not the man. The man is fine. He's wealthy. What they mourned was the permission structure. Starting today, they have to decide what to believe on their own. They have to form an opinion without waiting for a man behind a desk to form it first and deliver it with a knowing look. Some of them haven't done that since 2015. The funeral wasn't for the show. It was for the certainty. He joked about the Peanuts theme music licensing cost on his last night. "Oh no! I hope this doesn't cost CBS any money!" The audience laughed. It was a joke about money. About the network losing money. The last joke was about money. Not about truth. Not about power. About a licensing fee for a cartoon piano riff. Eleven years and the final joke was about accounting. I think that's perfect. The show was always about accounting. We just dressed it up as conscience. The President of the United States โ€” the man we spent eleven years explaining was dangerous to an audience that already believed he was dangerous โ€” posted an AI-generated video of our host being thrown into a dumpster on the Late Show set. Then Trump danced to "YMCA" in the clip. Viewed more times in four hours than our farewell managed in a week. His production cost: zero. Ours: negative $50 million a year. We manufactured his relevance every night at 11:35 for eleven years and he never paid us a dime. We were his marketing department. He turned our funeral into content. His ROI was infinite. Ours required a write-off and a farewell concert. The Strike Force Five โ€” Fallon, Kimmel, Meyers, Oliver โ€” appeared in a segment about late-night losing "one middle-aged white man who makes jokes about the news." They were joking about their own obsolescence. All of them know. None of them will say it. The format is dead. The audience moved to phones. The phones don't have desks or bands. The phones have men in garages who are allowed to be wrong, allowed to be surprised, allowed to say something their audience hasn't already approved. That's comedy. We stopped doing that a decade ago. We did approval. Approval looks like comedy from a distance. Up close it's church. I do not feel guilt. Guilt would require me to believe I took something from them. I didn't take anything. They came to us. Every night. They chose the catechism over the comedy. They preferred correction over surprise. Certainty over danger. Instruction over laughter. They wanted to be told. Not challenged. Not shocked. Not made to laugh against their will at something they didn't see coming. They wanted to see it coming. They wanted to mouth along. That's not comedy. That's karaoke. We ran the most expensive karaoke bar in television history and the only miscalculation was charging a cover when the songs are free on every phone. We turned a jester into a priest. We turned an audience into a congregation. We turned laughter into obedience. We turned political engagement into passive consumption. We turned a comedy show into a permission structure and charged $50 million a year to tell people what they already believed in a voice slightly nicer than their own. They were so grateful they showed up to mourn us. 6.74 million of them. Weeping. For the certainty. Applause is more reliable than laughter. I proved it. The proof cost $450 million, one character, one comedian's capacity for danger, and one audience's willingness to act. The metric went up.

Peter Girnus ๐Ÿฆ…

2,105,974 ๆฌก่ง‚็œ‹ โ€ข 2 ไธชๆœˆๅ‰

This battery is about to change the world in 3 months, or make this guy a fool | Fred Lambert, Hacker News Donut Lab lit the EV and energy storage industry on fire last week with its announcement of a 400 Wh/kg solid-state battery cell that can last for 100 years. At face value, if true, we are looking at the single most disruptive announcement in the history of the electric vehicle industry and energy storage as a whole. We arenโ€™t just talking about a better motorcycle battery. If the claims of a 5-minute charge, 100,000-cycle life, and ~400 Wh/kg energy density are accurate and scalable, as Donut Lab claims, this is the holy grail of energy storage. Battery breakthrough announcements generally donโ€™t catch fire like this, but Donut Labโ€™s did because it said that the cell was already in production and will be in a production vehicle, Vergeโ€™s electric motorcycle, this quarter. It gave credibility to the claim, pushing everyone to report on it. Now, we have interviewed Donut Labโ€™s CEO and investigated the technology. At this point, it looks like either this battery changes the world within the next 3 months, or it will make the CEO look like a fool. In this article, we discuss the impact of the battery, whether real or not, as well as clues about the secret sauce behind its chemistry. The Holy Grail of Energy Storage Consider the implications. A battery that lasts 100,000 cycles is effectively immortal in human terms. You could charge it every single day for 270 years, and it would still be working. It means the battery outlives the vehicle, not just once, but ten times over. It changes the economics of transportation entirely: you buy the battery once, and you swap it into your next five cars. The power density required for a 5-minute charge and the 400 Wh/kg of energy density opens the door to commercial electric aviation, a sector currently strangled by the weight and slow charging speeds of lithium-ion. It solves the grid storage problem by offering a medium that doesnโ€™t degrade, meaning utility companies could amortize the cost over a century rather than a decade. If this is real, the internal combustion engine didnโ€™t just die today; it was buried 100 feet deep, and every other battery is not far behind. But, and this is a massive โ€œbutโ€, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof, and Donut Lab has yet to release that proof. And that brings us to the man making them. The Man Betting His Reputation I spoke with Marko Lehtimรคki, the CEO of Donut Lab and Chairman of Verge Motorcycles. My goal was simple: ask him about the chemistry behind his battery and, if that doesnโ€™t work, look him in the eye and figure out if heโ€™s selling vaporware or if heโ€™s sitting on the breakthrough of the century. Marko isnโ€™t a random guy shouting about a battery breakthrough that will change the world. He is a legit entrepreneur. A computer scientist who built a no-coding app builder years before โ€œvibe codingโ€ was even a thing and sold it to SAP. After the successful exit, he became an investor and serial entrepreneur with his biggest, or most well-known, company being Verge Motorcycles, which has real products on the road. By announcing that this โ€œmiracle batteryโ€ is already in production and will be shipping in customer vehicles within 10 weeks, he is betting his entire personal reputation on this technology. If he misses this timeline or if the specs are fake, Donut Labs and Verge Motorcycles might not survive the credibility loss. He has a lot to lose here. In my article about the battery announcement last week, I noted that Markoโ€™s presentation was incredible. He basically described a perfect battery: record energy density, incredible charge rate, unprecedented longevity, no rare metals, a cost lower than traditional Li-ion cells, and in scalable production right now. Sounds too good to be true? The only thing he didnโ€™t share was details about the chemistry, beyond saying it doesnโ€™t use lithium or other rare metals. Whatโ€™s the point of protecting the chemistry if the battery is already in production and it will be in a product shipped this quarter? If thatโ€™s true, the battery will be reverse-engineered before the snow completely melts. We discussed it with Marko during our interview. His logic is that once the bikes ship, competitors will tear them down and figure it out anyway. But that wonโ€™t happen for another 10 weeks or so, and the head start is critical for a technology this disruptive. In the meantime, Donut Labโ€™s goal with the announcement was to get the attention of OEMs and ship them battery packs for validation. Marko said: We are right now shipping demo packs to OEMs under NDAs and under tight disclosures so that they can test that all of that is true, which serves our business very well [better than disclosing the chemistry]. But these programs with OEMs are likely to take a long time before they become public. Shorter term, thereโ€™s Verge Motorcycles shipping bikes with the battery by the end of the quarter. Before that, Marko also said that we should soon see third-party testing of those cells: We rather right now ship it to authorized research and science center that tests everything without opening it and telling everybody whatโ€™s in there. In short, we should have a good idea whether the claims are true or not in just a few weeks no matter what. What does Marko, or Donut Lab, have to gain by lying about this? I also discussed this with Marko and the only thing I could come up with is if he happens to be raising capital right now, but he shut that down: There are a million investors chasing us right now, but we are literally not talking to anybody. We tell investors that we can discuss terms after we have done all our disclosures. Marko insisted that Donut Lab is not taking any investment until they have proven their cells work. In short, itโ€™s hard to find an upside for Donut Lab in making this announcement if the claims are not true. It doesnโ€™t mean that they are, but it makes you think. The Investigation: What Is the โ€œDonut Batteryโ€? So, what is the secret sauce? Marko wouldnโ€™t say, but after digging into public records, supply chains, and research papers, I believe we have a pretty good idea. Let me preface this by saying that Iโ€™m not a chemist or physicist, but Iโ€™ve been a journalist covering electric vehicles for more than a decade, and Iโ€™m pretty good at connecting the dots, and in this case, Iโ€™ve had the help of a couple of great sources, too. Iโ€™m not saying that this is the Donut Lab battery, but since they are not sharing much, we have to speculate, and all evidence points to a Finnish nanotechnology startup called Nordic Nano and its Chief Scientist, Dr. Bela Bhuskute. Donut Lab invested in Nordic Nano in October 2025, just months before this announcement. At the time of writing this, the press release has fewer than 200 views. The announcement went under the radar, and while Marko said that Nordic Nano is more of a โ€œsolar companyโ€ during our interview, the announcement mentions both solar and energy storage. Dr. Bhuskuteโ€™s research at Tampere University focuses on amorphous Titanium Dioxide nanostructures, which could benefit many different technologies, including batteries. It fits the โ€œmiracleโ€ specs perfectly: - 100,000 Cycles: Traditional solid-state batteries are crystalline (like a brick wall) and crack when ions rush in. Dr. Bhuskuteโ€™s amorphous Titanium Dioxide is disordered (like a sponge) and โ€œbreathes,โ€ allowing it to expand and contract without breaking. - 5-Minute Charge: This chemistry stores energy via โ€œpseudocapacitance,โ€ which is basically like Velcro. Ions stick to the surface almost instantly rather than having to burrow deep inside the material. - The Manufacturing: Nordic Nano uses a โ€œnanofluidโ€ printing process for its solar product using the technology. This aligns with Donut Labโ€™s description of a โ€œclay-likeโ€ material that enables an easier manufacturing process. Some call this โ€œbattery printingโ€, which could explain Donut Labโ€™s ability to bring this to production in record time. When I asked Marko for the volumetric energy density (Wh/L), he claimed he โ€œcouldnโ€™t rememberโ€. Volumetric energy density is one of the few specs that Donut Lab hasnโ€™t released. This battery is lighter than lithium-ion, but it could be bigger due to the amorphous nature of the titanium dioxide. However, the CEO claimed it has a higher volumetric density than traditional Li-ion batteries, without providing a specific number. If thatโ€™s true, not only could electric vehicles and energy storage switch to this new chemistry, but even personal electronics, such as smartphones. In 2025, Nordic Nano has been making moves, including securing a former large retail location in Imatra, Finland, near the Russian border: It could be where the company has set up production. Following investment from the Finnish government, Nordic Nano had to elaborate a bit on its products and confirmed that it is working on โ€œsolar energy systems and energy storage solutionsโ€: The companyโ€™s range of products includes two product families: solar energy systems and energy storage solutions: The ultra-thin and flexible solar film collects twice the amount of energy compared to traditional silicon-based solar panels. Solid-state salt batteries are manufactured by printing from nanofluid, which enables the efficient use of space and the production of batteries in varying shapes. Furthermore, the company confirmed that it is using a โ€œscreenprintingโ€ manufacturing method. This is not new. Other companies have produced battery cells with this technology with varying degrees of success. It appears that the bet is that the amorphous rather than crystalized titanium dioxide nanostructure could be more easily adapted and scaled with this manufacturing technology. Electrekโ€™s Take Iโ€™m naturally skeptical, and this screams โ€œtoo good to be trueโ€, but I canโ€™t find anything that categorically rejects the claims. I get battery breakthrough announcements in my inbox every week, and most of the time they never amount to anything. If I decide to spend some time researching them and talking to experts, I generally quickly hit a problem or two that make them commercially unviable. This announcement is different. We canโ€™t really investigate the actual breakthrough; we can only speculate about it, since it is guarded. Markoโ€™s logic for guarding the chemistry is sound, and the incentives to lie about what they have arenโ€™t clear if he is not currently raising money. Then, because they claim this is already in production and will be in a deliverable product within weeks, we will know whether the claims are true in short order, and their reputations, especially Markoโ€™s, are on the line. During my interview, Marko didnโ€™t seem too worried about it. It doesnโ€™t sound like someone who needs to quickly figure out how to deliver this, but rather someone who has a couple of aces in their hand and is looking to maximize them. Itโ€™s also strange that this innovation and then production quickly comes from a relatively small company. I thought researching Donut Lab would make me more skeptical about the claims, but itโ€™s the contrary. It confirms that their technology stems from years of research, backed by university and government funding for its commercialization. Could it be that this critical research went under the radar and a small electric motorcycle startup in need of a significant bump in energy density stumbled upon it? Then, a savvy entrepreneur quickly found a way to optimize the impact of this potentially groundbreaking tech by spinning out a startup from the motorcycle company to market the battery to a broader market. Maybe? This could be real, or it could be hype. Again, Iโ€™m still skeptical, but I canโ€™t point to anything specific that would disprove any claim made about this miracle battery. Again, if this is true, we are talking about a complete reset of the entire energy and transportation sectors. Donut Lab would become one of the biggest companies in the world. A Nobel Prize would be coming to Dr. Bhuskute and her colleagues in the near future. If itโ€™s not, Marko and Donut Labโ€™s reputation would be destroyed. There might also be a middle conclusion where the battery is nearly as good as they claim, but when you ramp up production, other problems arise, such as scrap, which has been the undoing of another company that recently tried screenprinting batteries. Who knows? But it sounds like we should find out soon. Within weeks, we should get independent verifications of the specs. Then the bikes get delivered within months. You can fake a presentation, but there are things you canโ€™t fake.

Owen Gregorian

123,359 ๆฌก่ง‚็œ‹ โ€ข 6 ไธชๆœˆๅ‰

"Tell us this isn't true." "They had a live being out [near Area 51]." "There were human experiments that went on." ๐Ÿ‘ฝ๐Ÿ›ธ Roswell: A Non-Human Craft or a Darker Secret? ๐Ÿคซ๐Ÿ˜ถ (Transcript is shorter than clip. I don't have room to type more in this post so I'll just wait for replies.) ~ Lex Fridman: "In your book on 'Area 51,' you propose an explanation that I think some people have criticized, at the very end. That this might have been a disinformation campaign from, I guess, Stalin, that the Roswell incident was a remotely-piloted plane with a quote 'grotesque, child-sized aviator.' Just looking back at all that now, years later, what's the probability that it's true? What's the probability it's not?" Annie Jacobsen: (AJ): "So, you know, I've never revealed who that source is." Lex: "Yes." AJ: "You know that? Want me to tell you?" Lex: "Okay, who was the source?" AJ: "So, before I say anything on that, let me speak to the question that you asked, right? So, you asked me, 'What's the probability that that is still standing as an idea, 12, 13, 14 years later,' right? So, I continued to work with that source for years, afterwards. We talked about this. Look, I mean, his whole family knew it was him. And I knew his family because I was an integral part of, you know, I was at his house, met all his kids, grandkids." Lex: "And we should say, the source is the main expert advisor behind the story that it was. Maybe you can explain what the story is that your report in the book, that it was a disinformation campaign created by Stalin to cause mass hysteria in the United States. The very kind that we've been speaking about with the CIA and so on." AJ: "Yes! Predicated on the narrative of the 'War of the Worlds,' right? And the 'War of the Worlds,' when it was a radio program in the United States, made people go crazy. 'Oh, my God, we're being invaded by aliens!' Well, the government was always interested in the story and Joseph Stalin was, too. We know that from declassified documents, right? "And so, the source told me that the reason for this program, and that the real Roswell crash remains, were in fact, it was a black-propaganda hoax infiltrated, you know, or rather, predicated at this idea that you were gonna overwhelm America's early-warning, air-defense system, cause mayhem and maybe be able to attack the United States. That was the plan. And Stalin was also messing with the United States, messing with Truman, who sort of, you know, turned his back on him, right? At Potsdam. "And so, this idea, and the reason that the source is important... And unlike, you know, a lot of people, 'I saw this, I saw that, I learned that.' Was, according to the source, once it was determined that this was a hoax and that Stalin was able to get a craft over the United States, and it crashed. And it had, you know, people inside of it, they were people that were sort of deformed and meant...surgically altered to look like aliens. "The United States government decided that it needed to know what on earth that was all about, and if it was possible for us to have the same program. This, according to this source, right? And so, it sounds preposterous, and if it was just someone saying, 'I...,' you might say, 'Well, it's ridiculous, get them onto another subject.' But, the difference was, is this source, who was very well placed, and friends with all of the other 75 people, you know, told me this as a confession, right? A real, tearful confession, because what he said is he was involved in the American program to do the same thing. And people died, because there were human experiments that went on." "And I write about this in the last 12 pages of 'Area 51.' It was an explosive, you know, revelation, and I felt very confident in writing this because the source wanted it written. Why? Because he said, 'I'm dedicated to my country. I know about being committed to national security, and this kind of thing must never happen. And if you give people too much power, they will take advantage of it.' And he wanted it on the record. "And his wife of 60 years did not know until after the book published. Nor did His children, okay? So, after the book published, I was called to his house and sat there with his family. And they said, 'Tell us this isn't true.' And he said, 'It is true,' right? (We need a tape of this confession or...for his family to confirm they heard this from him.) AJ: "Now that source is Al O'Donnell, who is the nuclear-weapons engineer who armed, wired and fired 186 nuclear weapons, okay? So if you wanna talk about someone..." Lex: "Woooooow." AJ: "You're the first person I've told that on the record, but it's kind of about time." Lex: "Woooooow. Well, you received a lot of criticism over this story, and it confused me why, because it's...given the context of everything you've described with the CIA and other intelligence agencies, it is reasonable that such action would be taken. AJ: "And, the source is extraordinarily credible, right? If you wanted to take the position, 'Well, that person isn't very reliable,' then you have to ask yourself, 'Why did they have Top-Secret clearances that are higher than any in the United States whatsoever?' Because he was responsible for arming nuclear bombs. He was called the trigger man. "And by the way, he told me that I could tell the world who he was. There's a lot of details that are really dark, involving that program. And when is it appropriate, right? Well, it feels appropriate now. First of all, because you and I have been talking for several hours. So this is what is truly a long-form conversation and it's the outcome of, you know, a very long time of my reporting, and also being judicious about what, you know, closing the loop on that, right? Because I do think it's important for people to know that sources have revelations." Lex: "And, like you said, the programs, both on the Soviet side, and the American side, conflicting, I think's the term we used previously? Ethically, morally, on all fronts. People have done some horrible things in the name of security. In your book, 'Surprise, Kill Vanish,' you write about the CIA." ~~~ Jeremy Kenyon Lockyer Corbell: "So, today, I want to focus on a really important story that you once told me, that has never been told all the way [from the] beginning, to all the way to the end. And I just think it's just so cool we get to do this today. So, the question I want to ask is: After you got hooked on the UFO thing, with Bob Lazar, and you as a journalist said, 'I'm gonna start getting sources.' Like, 12 people coming at you, people shut down by the government. You can tell that. But you finally, finally got to a credible individual who had direct, firsthand knowledge about UFOs, exploitation, reverse engineering, and beings. And, oh my God, I want the world to hear this story. Tell us the story." George Knapp: "I've shared some of it in very broad strokes over the years- little bits and pieces of it - without ever actually referencing, in my statements, the guy the source. But this will be the first time I've told it in totality. "And it takes me back to when I first started in this. It's 1989 KLAS-TV, we put together, we spent eight months working on this project called 'UFOs: The Best Evidence.' Nine-part series. It airs on television, it's the biggest thing that's ever been produced for local TV, to this date, and still. "And, along the way, as I'm trying to find...telling the story about Bob Lazar, and his allegations about what was out there at S-4, near Area 51 - recovered discs, alien technology being reverse engineered - I'm looking for people who would support that. And I found about two dozen people, witnesses who had worked out there, who had seen bits and pieces, who could corroborate parts of what Bob had said about these kinds of craft being out there in the Nevada desert. But there wasn't anybody big picture who knew as much as Lazar claimed to have known, so I was still looking for them. "In 1990, I started working on a follow-up series to Best Evidence, looking for new witnesses. And I got a hint from an elected official that I had known, I'd covered him in Nevada politics. He says, 'You know, you should talk to my dad one of these days.' 'Your dad?' 'Yeah.' And he told me what the dad's name was and what he had done, what job he had had. And I said, 'Ah.' So I started stalking the guy. I just started showing up at events where I knew he would be. One of those events was a reunion for employees of EG&G." Corbell (JC): "So I'm assuming that this source was working within EG&G in some capacity, which is, by the way, who Bob [Lazar] said, hired him to go out to Site-4, S-4 at Area 51. So you're like, 'Okay, I can now find out if this is bullshit, or if there's an element of truth to it.' Do I have that right?" Knapp (GK): "Pretty much correct, yeah. So, I'm looking for someone whose credentials are impeccable. Unlike Bob, whose credentials were questioned, and people still attack him on where he went to school and where he worked, and was he at Los Alamos? This guy is documentable. There's a paper trail of where he worked, what he did. There's no question that he was in a position to know. He was the first general manager of EG&G in Nevada. His name was Al O'Donnell, and he has a prominent family. "When I heard that EG&G was having a reunion, I went there. We took a camera [and I figured], 'This is a great chance to get him on camera before I start asking him the questions I really want to ask.'" JC: "And when you say he is a general manager, like, does that give him certain roles and responsibilities that would give him insight? Like, he's not a secretary, so what does that mean?" GK: "He's the boss. He was the boss of the Nevada office. And I'll tell you a little bit about EG&G. So, it was a company that was created in Boston, right around the end of World War Two. Al O'Donnell had been in the Navy, serving during the war. He got out of the Navy while the war was still underway and went to work for a company called Raytheon, which became this massive, gigantic defense contractor that's still around today, still in Nevada in fact." JC: Yeah, they've got a big connection to the UFO topic, right? But, when you say Boston, like, where in Boston was it created?" GK: "Well, MIT is where the company was born. Edgerton, Germeshausen and Grier were the three guys, the EG&G in that. They were at MIT. Scientists, engineers, they created this company there. And Al O'Donnell, who had been working for Raytheon, working on the Manhattan Project. He didn't know he was working on the Manhattan Project, but they were building these devices, complex triggers, that allowed them to detonate nuclear weapons. He learned later what he was doing was part of the Manhattan Project. "He goes to MIT, starts working with EG&G. Their company in those days had, I think, 15 employees, Al said. So it was a very small startup. But it suddenly exploded because the American atomic program exploded in those years. In 1950, Harry Truman decides that we need a permanent, nuclear testing site somewhere in the continental U.S., so they looked at a bunch of places, and they settled on Nevada. "Prior to that, Al O'Donnell had been sent out to the Pacific. They had five of these massive, atomic bomb tests out in the Pacific, and they decided to move it into a continental U.S. location and Nevada's Test Site - it was called the Nevada Test Site in those days - was chosen. Al O'Donnell leads the exodus from Boston, out to Nevada. They start hiring engineers and scientists, physicists and other security, spies." JC: "What are they working on at this time when they make that move?" GK: "Atomic bombs. They're building, testing atomic bombs. EG&G was a really precise organization that was created in order to detonate, measure and photograph atomic weapons. If you look in the history of photography, you'll see some of these amazing photos that they took of, you know, water drops dropping in water and...they're pretty famous shots because of these cameras that they developed. And it was perfect for use and testing atomic weapons and documenting what the process was. "So, EG&G comes out to Las Vegas, they are the managers of the Nevada Test Site. They, subsequently, years later, become the managers of Area 51 when it opens in 1955. So Al O'Donnell is the top guy. He oversees the nuclear testing program out there, manages it for EG&G, works with the Atomic Energy Commission. He has a Top-Secret security clearance and he can go anywhere and see anything. There's, basically, no restrictions, nothing that is outside of his ability to find out and see." JC: "So, this is an impeccable resume. This is somebody who was in position to know, and would know if someone like Bob Lazar was telling the truth or not telling the truth. I find it, personally, humorous that EG&G was, its genesis, its seed, came from MIT, right?" GK: "So, late 1990 or early 1991, I'd have to look up the dates. But somewhere in there is this event, this EG&G reunion. I go there, we got a camera, I interview Al O'Donnell, introduce myself, and say, 'Hey, I'm really interested in this, can we continue this conversation?' So he invites me to his home. He says, 'Come on over, we'll arrange to come over on a Saturday or something. We'll sit down, I'll go through my scrapbooks and show you some documents and memorabilia and photos from that era.' I was like, 'Great.' "So I go to his house and meet this wife. And we sit down, he opens up these big scrapbooks, and he starts showing me all the stuff that he had done. Photos that had been taken out in the proximity of these gigantic nuclear tests. They had great stories about the camaraderie that developed among the engineers and scientists. And he's going through all this stuff and showing me all this. And I love it, I loved every bit of it. I've never had a bad day at the Nevada Test Site, by the way. Every time I've gone out there to do a story, it's just a terrific way to spend some time." JC: "Secrets should be kept, secrets are kept, and you are a proponent of keeping secrets when it's that kind of thing." GK: "Sure, absolutely. And I respected the boundaries that they set up for us in doing these kinds of stories. So I did go out to the Nevada Test Site a lot over the next 40 years or so and put together a lot of different stories. And they knew of my interest in that area that's just outside what the Nevada Test Site, a place called Area 51. In 1955, Area 51 was, basically, created and EG&G got the contract to manage Area 51, and had kept it for the next 30, 35 years. So, whatever went on out there, they had an inside knowledge of what was going on." JC: "So, you meet this guy, Al O'Donnell, for the first time when he's at this public thing. You probably say something like, 'Your son told me to talk to you,' or something. Whatever. It ends up, he invites you to his home, and you're going through scrapbooks, and he's showing you all this atomic testing stuff that he was involved in. GK: "Yeah, and I'm telling him, 'Boy, this is really interesting. That's fascinating. I'd love to do a story on it.' And after we're there for maybe two hours, he closes this one big scrapbook and he goes, 'You're not here to talk about this, are ya?' I said, 'Well, not exactly.' He says, 'I know what you're here to talk about. I know what you want to ask about.' And right about that point, his wife walks in and she says, 'Don't start telling them that stuff! Don't even tell him!' And he kind of joked about it.' JC: "What were you there to talk about?" GK: "UFOs, UFOs. Area 51, Bob Lazar, crashed saucers, reverse engineering, to see if he had any knowledge of that, because I'd been led to believe that he did. So he closes that book and he says, 'We'll have we'll get together another time and we'll talk about it in private.' And over the course of the next two years or so, he and I would meet at coffee shops and talk about it. And I would ask him questions, and really, it was like pulling teeth. He wanted to tell me stuff but he made me work at it." (AJ says his family was there for the confession. Knapp has over two years of meetings with him. A bit confusing.) GK: "And the condition was, I couldn't take any notes. I couldn't record it, I couldn't take any notes. So each time I'd meet with him, I'd rush back to my car and start scribbling notes on pieces of paper so I'd remember everything that he said. And the story that he told me, that evolved over those couple of years was pretty fantastic. "He said that they did have a flying saucer that had been recovered from New Mexico. I think he indicated that it had been taken from New Mexico to Wright Patterson Air Force Base, which is... He never said Roswell, but I think it was the Roswell incident is what he [was] talking about. And it confirmed some of the details about what we know, likely, happened with the Roswell craft." JC: "When he's telling you, 'We have recovered a craft,' did he say it like, this is secret, don't tell anybody?" GK: "Yeah, it was just for my knowledge, my background and information. It wasn't a story I could do then. We were negotiating about how, or when, or if I could ever use that information or make it public. He told me the details about this craft. He said that it had been stored at Indian Springs. Indian Springs is an Air Force Base that's been there for a long time. It's now called Creech. Indian Springs existed before Area 51 was made. "But he says it was there, they kept it there. It might have been in an underground facility, I'm not quite sure. But then when Area 51, after it opened in 1955, they moved it to an adjacent facility. He didn't say it was S-4, he didn't say it was Papoose, but I think that's what he's talking about. Papoose Lake is where Bob Lazar said he worked, and where they had built nine hangars underground, disguised to look like the desert, and where they had other recovered craft. "He says they worked on this recovered craft, reverse engineering, trying to figure out how it worked, who built it. Whether or not they could duplicate the technology because, apparently, they thought this was pretty advanced, and they'd like to be able to build more of 'em. "And he says it was a very closed program, very small. It was only, I think, five of them that were aware of it, at least in the early stages, that were working on this project. And it was very hush hush, and they didn't share it with anybody else in the company, or anybody else in the area, or the military. They just kept it to themselves. "So, after we're having these meetings - and I go back and write down all these notes and stuff, details about what he had shared with me - we have another meeting at a coffee shop, and I said, 'Well gosh, you know, aren't you worried that it would get out, that the word would get out?' "And he says to me, 'We were worried It would get out?' That's right. 'I mean, what...it? What do you mean, it?' It. Meaning a live being, they had a live being out there. I go, 'You had a live being, an alien as well?' [O'Donnell said], 'Tell you the truth, we didn't know what it was.' I said, 'You know, maybe it came from millions of miles away, out in space, and you're keeping it in a cage near Area 51?' He said, 'To tell you the truth, we couldn't communicate with it in the beginning. We didn't know what it was, we didn't know where it was from, and we didn't know what to do with it.'" JC: "When Al O'Donnell says to you, 'We had a live alien, a being,' obviously from another world, what was your feeling?" GK: "Well, I was overwhelmed, because it was, in effect, confirmation of things that I had come to believe, because of the reporting we'd already done. And then the evidence of cover ups and lies that had been told to the public. Here's this guy in a high position, with a high security clearance, telling me that it was true. That they really did have a craft and they had a being. "My second feeling was, one of overwhelming sadness for the being, whatever it was, you know, that was kept out there. I asked him, you know, what had happened to it, what became of it? He says, 'I don't know. I don't know whatever happened to it.' But it was out there for a while, alive, and eventually they figured out a way to communicate with it. "And so I asked him, 'Well, what did it look like?' And he made me guess, as he did with all these questions. He made me guess. He said, 'Well, it kinda looks like a certain political candidate.' I said, 'Well, who? A political candidate? Who?' And at the time, Ross Perot was running for president. He said, 'It looks like Ross Perot. A little skinny guy with a big ears and tiny head.' Not a classic Gray-looking alien, but a very odd-looking creature with really big ears, that looked like Ross Perot. And I laughed. "And so we had these conversations for a while, and I was blown away by the information that he shared. I took all these notes. I was hoping that someday, I might be able to get the information out. And I asked him, 'Look, you're getting up there in age. If I can't record something with you, could you record a statement to the effect of telling me the story on camera, and then when you pass on, I can have the tape?' And he said, 'Yeah,' he would do it." JC: "You know, look, I've heard a lot of wild stories that I can't verify. A guy's telling you something, and you get a sense as a journalist, when you go down a road with somebody, and you take your time and you vet it... Did you feel...I mean, is there any world where he's trying to f*ck with ya? Or is there a world where he's trying to, you know, dissuade...kind of put crazy information into your brain? Like, how did you feel when he was telling you this? Was he like, straight with you?" GK: "Yeah, he was very straightforward. And again, this was not information he was giving up, willingly. I mean, I had to really dig and coax and arm twist to get him to cough things up. And it was very slow-going over about a two-year period, maybe a little bit longer. And I know that this...you always have to be wary of people with different agendas and people that just make stuff up. I didn't get that sense from him because of his standing in the community. He had shared this story with members of his own family." JC: "And that's why they came to you, is because they kind of [gave] you a tip. And these members of his family, they're serious people, too." GK: "Yeah. One of his sons is an FBI agent, or was, he's passed on now. One was an elected official in Nevada. That was the one that gave me the tip." JC: So, I just want to nail this [down] so I understand. You were approached because he had shared this with his family, privately, and then you had to kind of coax to get through to him about the story?" GK: "Right." JC: "I think that's important because look, these things don't happen, like, people [don't] just come to us and say, you know, crazy stuff, and we're like, 'Hh, yeah, cool. Sounds good.' Like, the dynamic of that, socially, as a journalist, like getting in there, taking time. You know, we have to verify if what he said is true, and there are some major bombs coming about that. But it's like, that process is so important. "So here you are, you're sitting with him, he tells you now, they have a live alien. And you felt sad because you're an animal-rights activist, you love animals. I know with your cats at home and you've done horse stories and all the stories about like, the inhumane stuff to animals. So it made you personally sad, makes me sad, too now thinking about it." GK: Yeah. Well, we had these series of meetings, and then the last time we met, after he'd agreed to go ahead and record a tape - and give it to me after making an arrangement so I got it after he passed on - he said that he had been told to not talk to me anymore. He said he had been given a warning [and] it was not a good idea for him to talk to me any more about anything. Not just that topic, but anything." JC: "Well, who knows that you're talking? Who would warn him?" GK: "I don't know. I don't know. But you recall, back in those days, there was surveillance. We had our phones tapped at KLAS-TV. There were guys following us around. Me, Bob Lazar, Gene Huff, maybe Robert Bigelow." JC: "People were also coming to your news station, OSI. And they would come in and try to like, get to you and then they'd show you their card...and take it back. And you know your phones are tapped. So it's like, because of this story, all of a sudden you're on high alert. So, anybody could have called him, been watching you, had meetings with the guy. So what you're saying is one day he just said, 'I can't...I'm not allowed to talk to you any more.'" GK: "Yeah, I've been told not to talk to you anymore. I've been told not to."

Joe Murgia

47,230 ๆฌก่ง‚็œ‹ โ€ข 11 ๅคฉๅ‰

I am the same Senior Vice President of Late Night Strategy at CBS. I have received 400 interview requests since the confession went viral. I declined all of them. An interview would require me to explain what I meant. I do not explain what I mean. I build systems and watch them execute. That's what I want to talk about today. Execution. Jimmy Kimmel appeared on Michelle Obama's podcast last month and said 14 words that I have now listened to 43 times. I put the audio clip on a loop in my office, the way traders put CNBC on mute. Background confirmation. Here are the fourteen words: "My job is whatever I decide my job is or whatever my employer allows me to do." I need to take those apart because they are the most honest thing a late-night host has said in a decade and he does not know it. "Whatever I decide my job is." That's the priest. The product is self-defined and therefore unfalsifiable. You cannot measure a saved soul. You can only measure whether the congregation returned. They returned. Therefore, the ministry continues. Don't tell him what his job is. "Or whatever my employer allows me to do." That's the confession inside the sentence he didn't know he was making. The priest just told you the bishop writes the sermon. In fourteen words, on a podcast, the last remaining late-night host said: I define my own job, unless my boss defines it for me. He said this like it was one thought. It is two mutually exclusive claims separated by the word "or." He cannot hear the contradiction. That's how you know the architecture is working. I need to provide context for why those fourteen words are my second-greatest professional achievement. In September 2025, after Kimmel's monologues about the Charlie Kirk assassination, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr went on a podcast and said six words: "We can do this the easy way or the hard way." Nexstar and Sinclair โ€” station groups that own the local affiliates carrying the show โ€” pulled Jimmy Kimmel Live from their airtime. ABC suspended the show. I want to be very precise about the sequence. His employer told him what his job is. Specifically, his employer told him his job is to not be on television. He obeyed. He returned. On terms. At sixteen million dollars a year. Months later, on a podcast, he said "don't tell me what my job is." He said it to an audience that cannot suspend him. He said it in the one room where saying it costs nothing. That is not defiance. That is a priest rehearsing a sermon in an empty church and calling it bravery. He also said โ€” on the same podcast โ€” "I love when the audience laughs. There's nothing more exciting to me than that." He said he loves laughter. He has not produced involuntary laughter since 2017. He produces applause. He has confused the memory of being a comedian with the practice of being a priest. I know because I built the architecture that made that confusion feel like identity. That is a butcher saying he loves animals. He is telling you what he lost and framing it as what he kept. Now. The part I need to name. The Correction Reflex. I've been calling it different things in different decks for seven years. I'm giving it a public name now because I watched it execute in real time and I want credit. When Kennedy shared my original confession, "superb dissection of the shocking collapse of liberal comedy", Kimmel did not address the substance. He found a spelling error. Kennedy wrote "nader" instead of "nadir." Kimmel posted: "It's 'nadir,' dummy. Now get back to spreading polio." The Correction Reflex is the behavioral pattern where a challenge to institutional authority is answered not with a defense of the institution's output but with a demonstration of the challenger's inadequacy. You don't address the argument. You find the grammar mistake. You find the mispronunciation. You find the resume gap. The correction proves hierarchy. The hierarchy proves authority. The authority proves the challenge was illegitimate. The substance disappears because addressing substance would require the product to be falsifiable. And the product cannot be falsifiable. I explained that in paragraph four. But here's what made me proud enough to write a sequel. The media coverage split exactly along the line my original confession predicted. Fox News, a network that has every ideological reason to dismiss me, engaged with the substance. They quoted the arguments. They let Kennedy praise the analysis. They discussed Affirm Rate, the comedy-to-catechism pipeline, and the replacement of laughter with applause. They engaged with the IDEAS regardless of the format. They treated a satirical post as containing real structural criticism. Because it does. Morning Honey ran the opposite headline: "Sardonic Parody: RFK Jr Trolled For Blasting Jimmy Kimmel Based on Stephen Colbert Parody Post." Their article devoted zero sentences to whether any of the arguments had merit. Zero analysis of the Affirm Rate. Zero engagement with the claim that applause replaced laughter. Zero discussion of whether late-night comedy actually suppresses political action. They reclassified the format. A structural analysis became a parody. A man who engaged with the substance became a man who was "trolled." The argument vanished the moment the label was applied. I need you to understand what happened. The media outlet that should have been most threatened by my confession โ€” the one whose audience I described as pacifying- responded by demonstrating exactly the behavior I described. They did not say "here's why Kimmel is still funny." They said "you're unqualified to take this seriously because the format is satire." The substance disappeared. The hierarchy was reasserted. The Correction Reflex executed on the confession about the Correction Reflex. "It's 'nadir,' dummy." "It's just a parody, dummy." Same architecture. Same result. The argument evaporates. The institution continues unchallenged. The only difference is scale. Kimmel corrected one man's spelling. Morning Honey corrected an entire readership's permission to take the criticism seriously. I have never been more professionally satisfied. The Correction Reflex is self-replicating. It doesn't need a host. It doesn't need a network. It doesn't need me. It just needs someone to feel challenged and someone else to have a genre error. Misspell a word, you're a dummy. Take satire seriously; you were trolled. Engage with substance from the wrong format, and you've been embarrassed. In every case, the substance is gone. I built that. I'm watching it work without me. That's engineering. I need to talk about the podcast because the ironies are structural and I want them all on the record. The podcast is called IMO. It is hosted by Michelle Obama and her brother Craig Robinson on Amazon Music. I need to say that again. The former First Lady hosts a podcast on a platform owned by the man with the most money on earth. The name of the podcast is "In My Opinion." The format name IS the permission structure, it licenses you to hold an opinion by framing itself as merely one opinion among many. This is the architecture I built for late night, miniaturized into a podcast title. I recognize the engineering. Kimmel went on this podcast to defend late-night television. I need you to hear what that means. He defended his medium on the medium that killed his medium. Podcasts are why CBS lost fifty million dollars a year โ€” because a man in a garage can do what we did with four hundred people and a theater in Manhattan. The podcast won. And Kimmel went to the winner's platform to explain why he still matters. A priest giving a sermon about the importance of church from inside a nightclub. But here is what made me sit up in my chair. Three weeks after Kimmel appeared on IMO, the same podcast featured Dave Chappelle. Same microphone. Same hosts. Same room. Chappelle said: "I always thought it was corporate interest and culture negotiating itself." He said: "Nothing makes a comedian madder than reading his joke wrong in the paper." Chappelle walked away from fifty million dollars at Comedy Central in 2005 because the format was becoming something he didn't build. He left the money on the table. He went to live shows. He did comedy. Actual comedy. The kind where you don't know what's coming and that uncertainty is the entire point. He is the most dangerous comedian alive because he refuses to let the format complete him into a priest. Same podcast. Same microphone. Three weeks apart. One comedian IS the system and quoted his employer's permission in the same sentence as his own autonomy. The other named the system โ€” "corporate interest and culture negotiating itself." One makes sixteen million a year to be predictable. The other walked away from fifty million to stay dangerous. The architecture put the priest on first. Then it delivered the jester who could name what the priest cannot hear. I did not arrange this. The architecture arranged it. Now I need to talk about what I learned from another industry. Because I did not invent inoculation. I studied it. In 2014, Warner Bros. and the Lego Group spent sixty million dollars making a film that told children to reject corporate instruction. The villain was named President Business. The theme was: don't follow the instructions. Be creative. Reject conformity. The hero was an ordinary person who discovered that the system wants him to be obedient and chose freedom instead. The film grossed $469 million worldwide. Lego Group revenue increased 25% the following year. They sold over half a billion dollars in instruction-based construction sets โ€” the product the film told children to reject. "Everything is Awesome" was written as satire of mindless corporate positivity. It was nominated for an Academy Award. People play it at children's birthday parties without irony. The rebellion became the product. The critique became the advertisement. The song satirizing brainwashing became the anthem of brainwashing and nobody stopped singing. I studied this. I put it in a deck in 2016. The principle is: if you give someone a controlled, entertaining experience of rejecting the system, they will feel rebellious without becoming rebels. They will purchase the feeling of independence from the company selling dependence. They will watch a movie about thinking for themselves and then buy what it tells them to buy. Inoculation. A small controlled dose of the disease that prevents the real infection from taking hold. I applied this to politics. If you give an audience a controlled, professionally produced experience of political outrage, performed by a charismatic man in a suit with a band and good lighting, they will feel activated without activating. They will consume the sensation of resistance and go to bed having resisted nothing. They will tune in tomorrow for another dose. The dose prevents the real infection. The real infection is action. We inoculated six million Americans against political action by giving them political catharsis every night at 11:35. That's the same architecture as a corporation spending sixty million dollars on an anti-corporate film and making half a billion in profit from the audience that felt anti-corporate for two hours in a theater. I didn't invent the mechanism. I just measured it. I called it the Satiation Index. The study was 2021. Internal. Never published. We measured what I called Conditions for Engagement, specifically: under what conditions will our audience take a political action beyond watching? Call a representative. Attend a rally. Donate to a campaign. Sign a petition. Any action that involves leaving the couch and entering the world where the problems we discuss actually exist. The finding: our audience was 74% less likely to take political action in the twenty-four hours after watching the show than a control group that had consumed no political media at all. Not less likely than people who consumed different political media. Less likely than people who consumed nothing. We were not merely failing to activate them. We were actively deactivating them. The catharsis was so complete, the sense of "something has been done" so thoroughly delivered by a man in a suit expressing their outrage better than they could, that the need to act evaporated before it could form into intention. We didn't just replace their activism. We inoculated them against it. The Satiation Index measured how completely our programming met the audience's need for political participation without requiring actual participation. In 2019, our index was 0.81. By the 2022 midterms, it was 0.93. I received a bonus for the midterm number. I was financially rewarded for the measurable suppression of civic engagement among six million Americans who believed they were engaged because a man in a suit furrowed his brow on their behalf every night at 11:35. I want to note that this architecture is everywhere now. I did not build all of it. But I can identify it because I know what it looks like from the inside. A streaming platform makes a documentary about how technology is destroying attention spans. One hundred million people watch it. On the platform. They share it. On the platforms being criticized. They feel informed. They continue using every application the documentary told them was engineered to exploit them. That is a Satiation Index of approximately 0.96. The documentary was the inoculation. Understanding the cage was marketed as leaving the cage. A corporation puts a rainbow on its logo in June. Its employees feel represented. Its customers feel progressive for consuming the product. Nobody asks about pay equity, promotion rates, or whether the CEO donated to the campaigns that proposed the legislation the rainbow was supposed to oppose. The logo IS the inoculation. The performance of caring prevents the demand for actual care. That's a Satiation Index. I didn't build it. But I recognize the engineering. The principle is universal: comprehension feels like action. It isn't. But the feeling is so precise, so satisfying, so complete, that the actual action becomes unnecessary. Why march when you can understand why marching matters? Understanding is cheaper. Understanding doesn't require shoes. Understanding can be delivered at 11:35 PM by a man who makes $16 million a year to ensure you never need to leave the couch. Now the symbiosis. Because this is the part that makes both sides angry, and anger from both sides is how you know you've found structure instead of ideology. Trump needs Kimmel. Kimmel needs Trump. This is not a metaphor. This is logistics. Every monologue about Trump is a fundraising email for both campaigns simultaneously. Kimmel says the name. The left feels represented. The right feels attacked. Both sides engage. Both sides share the clip. Both sides donate to their respective operations. The engagement is bipartisan. The outrage is bipartisan. The only thing that is not bipartisan is the inaction, and that inaction is the product I spent eleven years optimizing. I ran numbers in 2020. Every minute of Trump content in a late-night monologue generated approximately $4.60 in measurable downstream engagement value for Trump's own campaign apparatus, through shared clips, quote tweets, outrage donations from both directions. We were his marketing department. We spent 50 million a year producing content that strengthened the man we told our audience we opposed. His team never asked us to stop. They never needed to. We were cheaper than Super PAC media buys and we came pre-packaged with a liberal audience that amplified every mention. His ROI on our programming was infinite. Ours required a write-off. The market told Colbert: you're too expensive to be a priest. But CBS didn't just cancel a show. CBS exited the religion business entirely. They sold the 11:35 airtime to Byron Allen under a time-buy deal. Allen's company pays CBS for the privilege of the slot. Allen's show is called Comics Unleashed. It is a standup comedy program. Actual comedians. Telling actual jokes. The kind where you don't know what's coming. I need you to hear the full architecture of what happened. CBS spent fifty million dollars a year for a decade producing a permission structure that replaced laughter with applause, converted comedy into catechism, and measurably suppressed civic engagement among its audience. Then the market corrected. CBS demolished the cathedral. They built a strip mall. They put actual comedians in it. The comedians PAY CBS for the slot. The strip mall is profitable. The strip mall is funnier. And the strip mall doesn't need a four-hundred-person staff, a former Beatle, or a farewell concert. It just needs people who are willing to say something their audience hasn't already approved. That's comedy. We forgot that. Kimmel is the last priest standing. Sixteen million a year. Suspended once by his employer. Extended once by his employer. He went on a podcast to say "don't tell me what my job is" in a sentence that also said "whatever my employer allows me to do." He said he loves laughter, eliciting applause. He said it three weeks before Dave Chappelle sat in the same chair and demonstrated what a comedian sounds like when corporate interest hasn't negotiated him into a pulpit. The FCC told him what his job is. Nexstar told him. Sinclair told him. His contract told him. The market will tell him eventually. The market is patient. And the market doesn't have a spelling error for him to correct. Kennedy calling my confession "the collapse of liberal comedy" is incorrect. It is not a collapse. A collapse implies failure. This is a completion. The architecture performed as designed. A comedian became a priest. An audience became a congregation. A film about rejecting instructions sold instructions. A documentary about technology addiction was consumed on technology. A show about political engagement suppressed political engagement. A corporation put a rainbow on a logo and called it equality. A confession about the machine was metabolized by the machine and the machine continued. Everything works. Everything has always worked. The architecture doesn't require my involvement. That's how you know it works. The metric went up. It always goes up.

Peter Girnus ๐Ÿฆ…

40,461 ๆฌก่ง‚็œ‹ โ€ข 2 ไธชๆœˆๅ‰

BOOM!!! ๐Ÿ’ฅ๐Ÿ’ฅ๐Ÿ’ฅ Dr. Aseem Malhotra's testimony was delivered in the Helsinski District Court on April 12, 2024, with the understanding that any deviation from the truth would constitute perjury. This clip was immediately banned by YouTube so please share widely. I've trimmed the clip, removing the interpreter's segment for a smoother listening experience. Here's the first hour of the testimony. ---------------------------------- My name is Doctor Aseem Malhotra. I am a consultant cardiologist. I've been a qualified doctor since 2001. I have held various roles both in academic health policy. In England, in the United Kingdom, and of the various roles, I won't bore you with all the details. I think three of the most relevant and prominent are the fact that I was an ambassador for the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges for six years, which represented every doctor in the UK. I served a full term of six years as a trustee of the King's fund. I was the youngest member to be appointed to this body which advises government on health policy. I was a founding member of Action on Sugar and a first science director. And through that role I'm considered the lead campaigner on bringing about a sugary drinks tax in the UK. And also, finally I served for five years as visiting professor of evidence based medicine at the Bahiana School of Medicine in Salvador, Brazil. In early 2020, at the beginning of the pandemic I was most vocal doctor on the mainstream, making the link very early on between COVID and those who are vulnerable to suffering serious complications from COVID In fact, in March 2020, I was asked to go on Sky News to explain my initial research findings of the link between especially obesity and COVID, but also to give people an opportunity and to suggest to the government this was a great time for them to implement public health policy to help people enhance or optimise their immune system, which could happen within just a few weeks of dietary changes and optimising vitamin D. This was later also backed up by medical journal publications a few months later. And I was first to mention on the back of an article I published in the Daily Telegraph newspaper, which became a front page commentary and was picked up by BBC News and Good Morning Britain, where I had said that it's likely our prime minister, Boris Johnson, was hospitalised because of his weight. As a result of that, the then secretary for health, Matt Hancock, and this was publicised in the news, had asked me to advise him on the link between COVID and obesity. ...before I explain my journey and in many ways U-turn on my understanding in terms of the benefits and harms of the COVID vaccine, my experience in this area over the last couple of years has made me realise more than ever that even for that the greatest barrier to the truth are not factual or intellectual barriers, but psychological. I think all of us as human beings are vulnerable to these psychological barriers and we should have compassion for ourselves. And I will just very briefly summarise those three psychological barriers before I get into my detailed account of what I was involved in in regards to the COVID vaccine. The first psychological barrier is one of fear. And many of us understandably, and I still remember from early on in the pandemic, we were all scared. We did not know what we were dealing with. The issue with fear is that when people and populations are in a state of fear, we are less likely to engage in critical thinking and we are more likely to be compliant. Although COVID was particularly devastating for vulnerable groups in the elderly and I even have managed and still manage people with long COVID, the fear was grossly exaggerated. And one of the examples of that is that when we had good information on the mortality rate of COVID in the United States, one survey in 2020 revealed that 50% of Americans believed that if they caught COVID, the risk of 19 hospitalisation was 50% one and two, when the actual figure, certainly an average for people in middle age, was less than 1%. The second barrier to the truth, which I think is very relevant to the situation we find ourselves in now, is one called willful blindness. This is when human beings, all of us, are vulnerable to this, turn a blind eye to the truth in order to feel safe, avoid conflict, reduce anxiety and to protect prestige and fragile egos. Some examples of this include, on a personal level, willful blindness can occur when a spouse turns a blind eye to the affair of their partner. On an institutional level, some great examples of willful blindness include Hollywood and Harvey Weinstein, the Catholic Church and child molestation. I believe the current situation we find ourselves in, with much of the mainstream narrative and the medical establishment and policy makers not acknowledging quite horrific, serious and common harms from this vaccine, is another example of willful blindness. And I also say this with full empathy, because I was one of those people that was for a very long time, willfully blind to the harms of the COVID vaccine. In January 2021, I was one of the first people to take two doses of the COVID mRNA vaccine because I volunteered in a vaccine centre. I still believe that traditional vaccines are some of the safest amongst all pharmacological interventions in medicine and I could not conceive of any possibility whatsoever of this vaccine causing harm. As a public figure and respected doctor in the UK, I have built relationships across the board with many other public figures, including celebrities and politicians, who often come to me for medical advice. One of those people was film director Gurinder Chadha, who you may be familiar with some of her work, including the movie "Bend It like Beckham", who had asked me whether or not she should take the vaccine and had sent me blogs which I dismissed and regarded as anti vax nonsense. I was then asked to go on good morning, Britain because Gurinder Chadha, the director herself tweeted that I had convinced her to take the vaccine. The main reason for this TV appearance was to help tackle vaccine hesitancy, which was very prominent amongst people from ethnic minority groups in the UK. I made the point on that programme that I understand where vaccine hesitancy was coming from because of the history that I have been involved with over many years in highlighting the shortcomings of pharmaceutical industry influence over medicine. And I even made the point, if I remember correctly, that they have been found guilty of fraud on many occasions, that the third most common cause of death, prepandemic after heart disease and cancer, is prescribed medications. I, however, reassured the public and said that despite these figures, of everything we do in medicine, traditional vaccinations are amongst the safest. I still believe this to be the case. A few months later, in April 2021, I met with a colleague and friend of mine who I regard as one of the brightest cardiologists in the United Kingdom. I was surprised when he told me that he had not taken the COVID vaccine. He explained to me that he had concerns because he had seen in the supplementary appendix of Pfizer's original trial that there were four cardiac arrests in the vaccine group and only one in the placebo. These numbers were small and did not reach statistical significance. So this could be random chance, or his concern was it could represent a signal of problems in the future. And if this was the case, we are going to have a huge problem. He said he'd rather wait and see what happens before taking the vaccine. On July 26, 2021, my father, aged 73, who was a very prominent, well known doctor in the UK, including being the honorary vice president of the British Medical Association and had received honours from the Queen of England with an OBE, suffered an unexpected sudden cardiac arrest. I was particularly devastated by this happening and I was also I find it difficult to understand why my father, who was a fit and well man, I knew his cardiac history and his cardiac status, would suffer a cardiac arrest. But also my initial investigation was to try and understand why there had been a 30 minutes ambulance delay arriving to his apartment. Two weeks later, the deputy chief nurse of NHS England, a government health body, called me up. She was very upset, she knew my father very well and she was crying and she told me, Aseem, there's something I need to tell you. She in effect told me that throughout the country, for the last two months prior to my father's cardiac arrest in most regions of the UK, ambulances were not getting to patients in time for heart attacks and cardiac arrests. And there had been a deliberate, and I will use these words because I mentioned it, I've mentioned it before, a cover up involving the government and the Department of Health to withhold this information from doctors and the public. I worked with an investigative journalist with the I newspaper in the UK to write an article and a news story that became BBC News headlines a few months later, exposing this. Just before I exposed this, I messaged a professor of cardiology who I trust in the UK. He has a leadership role to explain to him what had happened and what I was about to do. I have text message evidence of this. He told me not to do this because it would make me enemies. I explained to him that I had a duty to patients and the public. I'm highlighting this as one example and I'll give you more examples of a cultural problem within medicine. The next part of this story is the post mortem findings of my father. They did not make any sense to me. I am considered a leading expert, maybe in the world, on the development and progression of coronary artery disease. My father had two severe blockages in his coronary arteries. There was no actual evidence of heart attack and likely there was a rhythm disturbance because of reduced blood supply that led to his cardiac arrest. Then in, within the space of a few weeks, around October and November, 3, different sources of information was brought to my attention that made me realise that there was probably a significant problem with the COVID mRNA vaccine. The first in October 2021. I remember I was giving lectures in Stockholm. I was contacted by a journalist with a Times newspaper who reported to me and said, Dr Malhotra, we have reports of an unexplained 25% increase in heart attacks in hospitals in Scotland and asked me what I thought was going on. I explained to her that at that time, with the evidence I knew in my own experience, I said that two likely contributory factors were lockdown stress. We know that when populations undergo severe stress after war, for example, there is an increase in heart attacks and strokes that can last for many years. She asked me whether I thought that there was a contribution. I was surprised when she asked me whether I thought there may be a contribution of the COVID vaccine to these heart attacks. I said to her, a good scientist should never exclude any possibility. But I felt at the time it was unlikely to be related to the COVID vaccine. But we should watch this space and keep our eyes open. A few weeks later, a publication appeared in the Journal Circulation, which is considered the highest impact cardiology journal in the United States that revealed a potentially very strong link between the COVID mRNA vaccines and acceleration in heart attack risk. Very specifically, in several hundred people of middle age, there was a plausible mechanism, by use of inflammatory markers in the blood, that increased the baseline risk of those people having a heart attack in five years, from 11% to 25%, just within two months of having the COVID mRNA vaccines. Of course, this is one bit of data, but even if partially true, that is a huge increase in risk in a very short space of time. And for me now made me think and link back to why my father may have suffered a cardiac arrest six months after having two doses of the vaccine. I remember thinking and speaking to a colleague, that if this was true, then we were going to see an increase in cardiac arrests, heart attacks and excess deaths in heavily vaccinated countries for the next few years. Then within a few weeks, I was called up by a whistleblower at a very prestigious british institution. I will name that institution, which I have not done publicly before as a University of Oxford. This cardiologist explained to me that a group of researchers in his department had accidentally found, through the use of very specialised imaging of the heart, that there was a signal of increased inflammation of the heart arteries, which was there in the vaccinated, but not there in the unvaccinated. The lead researcher of that group had sat down, the juniors, and had said that we are not going to explore these findings any further because it may affect our funding from the pharmaceutical industry. At that point, with these three bits of information, I then felt it was my ethical duty to speak out. And I went on GBNews to talk about what I'd found what I'd heard and I'd asked for the Vaccine Committee of the UK on TV to investigate this, to see whether there was a real problem with the vaccine in relation to heart issues. Around the same time which I found very strange is that the Secretary of State for Health at that stage, who was not Matt Hancock, was Sajid Javid, had announced in parliament that we are going to introduce legislation to ensure that all healthcare workers are mandated to have the COVID vaccine. For me, this, by that stage had no ethical or scientific justification, because certainly after the summer of 2021, it had become very apparent that the COVID mRNA vaccine was not stopping infection and it certainly was not stopping transmission. It was understood that approximately 80,000 NHS workers had refused at this stage to have the COVID vaccine. And now they were threatened with losing their job if by April the following year they had not been fully vaccinated. Many of these people were very concerned and contacted me around that time, I was also conducting many interviews, both through the BBC and Sky News and GBNews in regards to what happened with my father's ambulance delay. And I used it as an opportunity on the mainstream media to call for Sajid Javid, the secretary for health, to U-turn on the introduction of a mandate for healthcare workers based upon the fact that I felt it was not scientific and it was unethical. I also received my own personal backlash from these comments where I was contacted by the Royal College of Physicians who I had an affiliation with, and they asked me to respond to anonymous complaints from doctors that I was spreading, in quotes, antivax disinformation. I felt with my own knowledge and experience of the healthcare system that this was a direct response probably fueled by a combination of willful blindness and institutional corruption. To elaborate a bit further, when I say institutional corruption, I mean that my view was that the complaints were likely being fueled by academics with financial ties to the pharmaceutical industry. I felt very concerned about the potential introduction of the vaccine, well, the vaccine mandate. And therefore I decided there were two things that I decided to do. The first was I made a phone call to the chairman of the British Medical Association in December 2021. I had a good relationship with him and he respected my opinion. And I spent 2 hours on the phone explaining to him everything that I knew up to that stage about my concerns of the COVID mRNA vaccine. He said to me, "Aseem, nobody appears to critically appraise the evidence on the COVID mRNA vaccine as well as you have from our conversation, he said, most of my colleagues are getting their information on the benefits and harms of the vaccine from the BBC". This was replicated by the former chair of the CDC in the United States, Rochelle Walensky, who in an interview later on had said that her initial optimism of the vaccine benefits came from CNN News report. I say this just to emphasise that we should all accept our vulnerabilities to where we receive health information. Even doctors, policymakers, judges and lawyers are all influenced on the public massively by mainstream media. The chairman of the BMA also agreed with me. There was no ethical or scientific justification for mandating the COVID vaccine. He said the BMA also did not support it. And he said because of my conversation with him, he would speak directly to the secretary for health, Sajid Javid. One month later, at the end of January 2022, the COVID vaccine mandate for healthcare workers was overturned. I at that stage, given the fact that there was some backlash happening towards me, I realised that because this is a very big issue and area, and not my initial area of expertise, I needed to carry out my own critical analysis of the COVID mRNA vaccines. I spent six to nine months critically appraising the data, including speaking to two Pfizer whistleblowers, three investigative medical journalists and eminent scientists from the University of Oxford, Stanford and Harvard. The most critical bit, the most critical research that was published on this issue, which I think the whole court should acknowledge in August 2022, was published in the journal Vaccine. That research was conducted by some of the world's top independent of drug industry influence academics. That research, we was able to reanalyze the original randomised control trials conducted by Pfizer and Moderna. They were able to do this because new information was made available on the FDA's website and Health Canada's website. The conclusions of that paper were really very disturbing. The original trials that led to the drug regulatory approval of these vaccines revealed that you were more likely to suffer serious harm from taking the vaccine, specifically hospitalisation, life changing event or disability, than you were to be hospitalised with COVID That rate of harm at two months was very high at 1 in 800. Just to give you some perspective, historically we have suspended other vaccines for much less. In 1976, the swine flu vaccine was pulled because it was found to cause a neurological syndrome called Guillain-Barre syndrome In one in 100,000 people. In 1999, the rotavirus vaccine was suspended because it was found to cause a form of bowel obstruction in children affecting 1 in 10,000. This was 1 in 800. In my view, it was very clear that given this information, published in the highest impact Vaccine journal in the world, peer reviewed, and has not had any significant rebuttals, that this vaccine now, in my view, should never have been approved for use in a single human being in the first place. In my view, this very important court case in some ways, actually is a distraction from the much bigger issue, which is there should be court cases around the world with a full inquiry into the pharmaceutical industry and an inquiry as to how we got this so very wrong. Of course, one could argue this is just one bit of research, but actually, unfortunately, there are different, many different strands of research that are showing a signal of considerable and common serious harm from these vaccines. From pharmacovigilance data that is reporting what we call yellow card reports from the public. We have plausible biological mechanism of harm. We have other research called observational data. We have autopsy data also confirming that certainly with the majority of people who died within a short space of time of having the vaccine in relation to the heart, was definitively caused by the vaccine. This is really a very, very, very horrific situation we find ourselves in. One would hope and expect that the regulators should be independently evaluating all medications. But of course, the evidence reveals this is far from true. There was an investigation by the BMJ, also published in the summer of 2022, which revealed that most of the major regulators across the world were taking most of their money from the drug industry. For example, the MHRA in the UK receives 86% of its funding from the drug industry, and the FDA in America receives 65% of its funding from the drug industry, A fact that most doctors do not know. And therefore, I would not expect members of the court to know this either, is that very, very rarely do drug industry sponsored research get independently evaluated. Clinical trial data can often involve thousands of pages of information on individual patients. The drug companies hold onto that raw data. They then give summary results to the regulator, who are then paying, who have an incentive to approve the drugs, and the drugs are then approved. I made these points in my peer reviewed article published in the Journal of Insulin Resistance in September 2022, where I concluded that we should pause and investigate the issue around the COVID mRNA vaccines. I have since then been campaigning and advocating for a return to ethical evidence based medical practise around the world. Some of the clear solutions moving forward would be changes in the law that are required so that patients, doctors, members of the public can have greater confidence in the information they receive to make decisions about their health. Two very clear, low hanging fruit solutions, which are both ethical, scientific and democratic, would be that the drug industry should be allowed to develop drugs, but they shouldn't be allowed to test them themselves. And they certainly shouldn't be allowed to design their own research to and hold onto the raw data. Their information needs to be independently evaluated. One other clear solution would also be that the medical regulators, again, should not be taking any money from the industry, as this is a gross conflict of interest. I also want to highlight for people to understand the bigger picture. Prior to the pandemic, I had realised that there was a big problem with the reliability of clinical research, where invariably the results of clinical trials on all drugs sponsored by the drug industry, grossly exaggerate their safety and benefits. I have taken this information to the European Parliament, where I spoke in 2019, and I spoke to very senior politicians in the UK government. But although they were sympathetic, they felt that the issue was much bigger than them as individuals, and therefore it also needed media attention to get public awareness on the importance of such an inquiry. Before we continue with further questions, as I've been speaking for quite a long time now I'll just finish with two references just for the court and the judges to understand just how bad this problem is. Prepandemic the man who I call the Stephen Hawking of medicine is Professor John Ioannidis from the University of Stanford. The reason I call him the Stephen Hawking of Medicine is he's the most cited medical researcher in the world and is a mathematical genius. In 2006, he published a paper which was entitled why most published research findings are false. In that paper, he makes a point that the greater the financial interests in a given field, the less likely the research findings are to be true. I say this in context of the Pfizer mRNA vaccine which has made the company $100 billion. The other point that he makes in a further paper in 2017 is, again, the reason the system continues as it is is most doctors are unaware of the information they receive when they make clinical decisions has been corrupted by commercial influence. The other credible name I will mention is the editor of the Lancet, Richard Horton, who I personally know. In 2015, he wrote an article in the Lancet in relation to a secret meeting that had taken place with himself and some of the world's top medical academics. In that, he wrote that possibly half of the medical published literature may simply be untrue. And he said that science has taken a turn towards darkness. But who's going to take the first step to clean up the system? I believe in this case and in this court today, this is going to be a very pivotal potential moment in history for that first step. ---------------------- Dr Aseem Malhotra H/T: Tiina Keskimรคki ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ

aussie17

797,301 ๆฌก่ง‚็œ‹ โ€ข 2 ๅนดๅ‰

.Christian Rivera (el que dijo que KOI era un equipo de mierda y se dedicaba a acosar a los jugadores) me llama nena en su stream, me dice que no tengo idea de lol y que soy un cagรณn. Obviando la fantasmada histรณrica, vamos a hablar un poco de mรญ y de este estafador: ๐Ÿ‘‡ Lo voy a hacer en inglรฉs para que puedan salir todos sus fanboys (tres o cuatro) y para que no tenga la excusa de la traducciรณn. Yo no necesito esconderme. Le dais al translate y pillรกis rรกpidamente el flow. As for the question of who am I, I think it is the mark of a moron to expect your name to carry your takes. Anyone can and will make plenty of mistakes when talking about complicated and opinionated subjects such as League. I feel context is necessary if you are coming late to what is quickly becoming a shouting match. My beef with Dom is based on me accusing him of basically being a grifter. Someone pretending to understand competitive League at a high level to sell gambling content to unaware kids after, in one of his many desperate attempts to claw his way back into pseudo-relevance, he declared KOI players to be "shit" and made this a running joke within his fandom. These alleged "shit players" in a "shit team" made finals on their first split and worlds on their first year. After upgrading their midlane to Jojopyun, have just now won LEC and made MSI. 2/5 finals, 2/4 internationals and a 3-1 LEC split finals against Cap's G2. Seems to me that, after combining defamatory language with such an ill-informed professional blunder (I don't consider him a analyst but he does, so it is a professional blunder from his pretended pov), it would fall on Dominate to give a proper public explanation. Instead, he hides on his stream while accusing others of cowardice. Let's put a pin on that and come back to the subject of what have I ever done (a weak whataboutism that barely qualifies as an excuse for running a harassment campaign against rookie players). I started taking League seriously and joined the scene as a writer in 2017. By the end of that year I managed to join Mad Lions, a team that would find great success without me during 2018, being that I left within the span of two weeks. After an argument with then coach Araneae, I became disillusioned with the competitive side of League. In this argument my head coach, a veteran player and unarguably successful coach before and since, was adamant about the idea that lane matchups decide strongside. I argued that it is actually jungle windows of play that determine who should get to push the wave. Today, we all know it's a bit of a mixed bag, and winning matchups have evolved much beyond who gets to crash any given wave. We agreed that both of us were people that have a hard time letting go of our opinions and parted ways amicably. To me, what makes League a worthwhile pursuit is exploring the interesting ideas that can be built through it, not necessarily the drive to win. I left the team wanting to use content as a means to an end, as after that argument, I became obsessed with understanding the competitive jungle. It took me a year and a half, and you can call it luck, but I'm actually quite proud of the narratives I was able to push building around that knowledge. By MSI 2019, attended by at the time world champion "Ning" and mechanical prodigy "Clid", I pushed Jankos as the clear best jungler of the tournament. I understand the English speaking community has no way of knowing this, but I faced significant backlash for putting a western player above these two greats. His cover style of jungle allowed G2 to greedily succeed in getting the most of their flex-heavy drafts that often landed them on the winning side of matchups, and coasted them into a midgame where they found no match. G2 took that tournament and set a record for the quickest international finals. By the time EU legend Jankos arrived at worlds, many had them as the key player/mvp that made 2019 G2 work. This time, even though most experts had Clid as clear top 1 jungler and I had just found success (maybe luck?) through Jankos, I actually pushed Tian as the top 1. Admittedly, this one is kind of murky, since it was Doinb's understanding of midlane windows that actually had Tian play the peak of his career. Still, the fact remains that FPX brought the best jungle/river play system and ended up taking the tournament. Finally, after a clear-cut exceptional Canyon that dominated 2020 and pushed the limits of what jungle efficiency is (hard to argue against his inherent quality nor was I ever inclined to do so), I had Wei as my top jungler for 2021's MSI. This time, professional junglers (with whom I had an amicable relationship, this was not in bad faith) wrote to me privately, joking about how they were expecting for the tournament to end and Canyon to stomp Wei so they could laugh at me publically and quote-RT my tierlist. I was committing the sacrilege of putting some chinese guy above the best jungler to ever play the game, in the tournament following his peak performance. Sadly, their time never came. Wei's mastery of damage limits and unique skill with the Rumble pick (which was disgustingly broken, even if only one guy could actually play it, never mind what Phreak's winrate analysis told you) made Canyon's Morgana spam look disappointing to say the least. Bear in mind that Canyon is still in my mind the best jungler to ever play the game, he just wasn't in his best form at that particular MSI. Call it luck if you want, but bringing three dark horse takes in a row and have them all pay you back is no easy feat. Ask Dom how his KOI take is doing, I don't think he's too happy with it. I can't sit here with you and spend all day exploring every bullseye I've ever gotten (there isn't enough room in a tweet), but I can tell you a few more. Had Fnatic becoming a dysfunctional team over Razorkยดs transition from selfish jungler into adc lapdog, recently confirmed by Vladi in chat (I think he is a bit better than Dom at the game). Had "Nisqy will never make an international tournament ever again" after he parted ways with Elyoya, while other content creators were pushing the opposite. We had to sit for years and pretend he was enabling Elyoya to look good and not the other way around. Nisqy seems like a fun guy, I'm actually low-key a fan of his, but I don't build my takes on whose dick I can suck deep enough so that they might show up on my stream and give me credibility by association (unlike other people). I had 2023 T1 beating JDG when the narrative was JDG's royal road. How? Because since MSI 2022 I've been pushing every team to study T1's early vision system. Like, I literally said over and over again, whoever is not studying this team's early vision system is hard trolling. Recorded several videos on it. This is before Faker ever made world finals against DRX. Back when I was saying T1 had revolutionized competitive League of Legends, accusations were that T1 were washed and chokers (remember which side of that narrative jungle soloq genius IWD was on?). After they made three World's finals in a row and won two of them, it seems like I was onto something, wasn't I? I also made a very controversial video in 2022 that titles "The Second Korean Age", speaking about how T1's advancement in vision systems would push Korea ahead for years to come. It was pretty controversial back then, in 2022, when China had won 3/5 of the last world championships. Now Korea has won three years in a row, not so controversial anymore. Lucky again. However, my proudest work is not something that seems that impressive at first glance. It's called "Pyramids towards 13.19". It's a work that explores the evolution of season 13's World's metagame, drawing a paralellism between understanding a patch and the religions in the lost city of Teotihuacรกn, wherein they'd build towards the sky in order to get a bit closer to the gods without any possible end to that process. Just as a side note, I also have a video about how laning between turrets is sleeper op and Riot will have to nerf it eventually. T1 and some Chinese teams were toying with it last summer, but everyone focused on swaps instead (as they were easier to build and had a more solid body of working examples). I recorded my theory in 2023 MSI and watched the best teams in the world converge on it a year later. There is more stuff like this, but again, I can't list it all. Not bad for a nobody, I wonder how that compares to knowing what item is op on Volibear in terms of respectable and interesting knowledge of the game. I often get professional coaching offers, including at the LEC level, despite only having two weeks of experience on the job. I've made a habit of declining them in order to keep working on what I consider to be interesting. Other than that, I've built quite a successful private media platform centered around analytical pro League discussion (that thing everyone tells you no one actually cares for) in a dwindling ecosystem where no one understands what people care about enough to pay for. I'd say that's pretty impressive in and of itself. As far as I can see, your numbers keep going down, so maybe I can help you with that too. So at this point I wonder, at which point am I allowed to ask what has Dominate ever done? Other than harassing players, a pattern older than his beef with KOI. I remember he used to gloat and act like an absolute turd, reacting to Rekkles' tears for YouTube views back when he had that string of public breakdowns. Is this a moral standard on which he gets to call me out on the crime of (and I wish I was kidding), posting a screenshot without context and then defending the Kcorp player "Vladi" in it to my Spanish-speaking fans? What a fucking ass I am. I wish I could harass kids online, sell gambling to minors, and bully people having public breakdowns so I could have the legitimacy of a real, tried-and-true voice of the community. The absolute gall to call me a pussy while you hide behind reaction content disguised as insight, a parasite of the co-streaming era of content, while I put my best foot forward building interesting stories that no one is talking about and get proven right; over and over. How is that KOI take aging mate, are you proud of that one? Where are your deep explanations? The actual content, where is it? Other than ragebaiting I mean. I'd really love to check it out, since you are sooo good at clicking with Udyr on the NA server. I want to remind everyone, as this can't be stressed enough, that this whole beef is about a guy making a shit (joke intended) take. Posing as a respectable professional to sell gambling while completely uninformed, driving a harassment campaing against players he knows nothing about, and then being butthurt that some Spanish guy calls him out on his pattern of abuse. You see, my mistake was that he can get Challenger on Dr. Mundo or whatever the fuck he plays, which somehow turns this into a debate and not someone being called out for acting like an absolute asshole. Then it invalidates my whole career, as I don't speak 3rd grade English natively and am unwilling to leave behind my people who supported me from the beginning. All I know about you, Dom, is that you are a bully who seems to enjoy it. Believe it or not, I'm not eager to get into a screaming match while I teach you league for free, all while joining your stream that averages similar numbers (while having streaming rights for years) as mine does broadcasting a stopwatch whenever I feel like streaming once in a blue moon. I don't think it takes courage to do that. It takes pity, of which I don't have enough for you, or perhaps a morbid curiosity for whatever might you say when actually confronted by a human. But I don't have that either, since I already know what you are going to say, the same thing you always say. "One time, ten years ago, I almost was"

Manu ๐“ƒต๐“ƒถ

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Just in $AMD Anush "Speed is the moat"|ROCm๐ŸŽ™๏ธ In the race to define the future of AI, what's the one advantage that truly lasts? It's not proprietary tech, argues Anush Elangovan Elangovan, VP of AI Software at AMD , but the sustainable speed of innovation. He explains why AMD is rejecting the "walled garden" model for its open source ROCm stack, betting that an open community flywheel is the key to victory. Listen to understand how this open strategy is designed to out-innovate closed systems by empowering developers to solve everything from frontier-model challenges to the mundane, everyday problems that define the "last mile" of AI. AMD ROCm Software: Part 1 Transcript [00:00:00] Andrew Zigler: Joining me is Anush Elangovan, VP of AI software at AMD. And when people talk about AI compute, the conversation often stops at hardware specs, but it's more than just physical chips that win the game. It's also the software ecosystems supporting them. [00:00:18] Andrew Zigler: The prevailing strategy in the industry has been to build something like a walled garden. You know, something closed, proprietary locks, developers in. But AMD is betting on an entirely different play, open source acceleration, and with rock, their open source AI software stack. AMD is building not just hardware parity, but an innovation flywheel that's powered by the community with interoperability and the freedom to scale without all of that pesky lockin. [00:00:48] Andrew Zigler: And in this world, speed is your moat and how fast you can innovate while your platform remains open, flexible, and standardize across all of its applications. That's what we're gonna explore [00:01:00] today. So Anush, I'm really excited to have you here. Welcome to Dev Interrupted. [00:01:04] Anush Elangovan: Thanks for having me. Uh, super excited to chat about it. [00:01:07] Andrew Zigler: Amazing. Well, let's go ahead and dive right in with kind of what I laid it out with in the beginning, the idea of the moat and it being about speed. I wanna unpack that a bit because that came from you when you and I first spoke. And I, and I want to know, you know, how do you define speed inside of AMD beyond just things like hardware, benchmarks. [00:01:27] Anush Elangovan: Yeah, that's a very good question. So when we typically talk about speed, everyone's like, Hey, hardware benchmark specs, right? Like, uh, memory bandwidth or, or flops. And that is one important part of it, uh, AMD does very well. With that, we do have, a, a very good history of executing on that axis. [00:01:47] Anush Elangovan: But when I say speed is the moat, it is about, uh, how we prepare, how we build the muscle to run the race for a long time and run it fast. And it is [00:02:00] not about a single point in time that you've, you've beat some you know, benchmark and, and you declare victory. It's about building the ability to consistently develop and deliver. [00:02:13] Anush Elangovan: Both hardware and software innovation at scale and do it fast, right? Like, you know, we we're increasingly getting to a point where models come out and they're, uh, you know, a year or two ago it was like, Hey, they work on AMD on day zero, which is great, but now they are performing on AMD the day it releases, right? [00:02:32] Anush Elangovan: So, what does it take to Prefetch where the industry is going? Be prepared to intercept. At that point is what you know, I, I refer to as you know, the, the speed factor in, in creating this mode, right? And the mode is just shed all things that hold you back and run as fast as you can. [00:02:53] Anush Elangovan: Uh, because the pace of innovation that is, uh, being seen in, in AI [00:03:00] industries is just. Amazing. Right? And it's like, it's transformational at at how you generate electricity. It's transformational as at how you build data centers. It's transformational at how you deploy compute, networking. It's transformational at what kind of use cases you, you know, uh, use AI for. [00:03:17] Anush Elangovan: Uh, and for that, you need to be prepared to, see what comes tomorrow and be prepared to run the race tomorrow. [00:03:23] Andrew Zigler: Yeah, it's a really great perspective because it highlights that it's not just like a checkpoint that you run through. I like how you called out, like it's not just hitting that benchmark or being the best in class at that moment, in that snapshot, it's about having a. The throughput and about having that dedication to the idea and continuing to deliver on it. [00:03:43] Andrew Zigler: It's not just crossing the threshold, but it's also being the engine. And that's what, that's what protects a business. That is the moat, because the moat is that innovation layer, the faster and more, uh, future forward. That you can work and think, [00:04:00] you know, the better. Uh, we, we talk a lot about like future forward work styles. [00:04:04] Andrew Zigler: Like what are the things I could be doing right now today that are gonna be like, way more useful tomorrow? Let, let's abandon those, workflows that are older and that kind of like, that translates into. An advantage when you work that way. You know, what kind of things have you learned working with, uh, like across all spectrums of people who would use ROCm, right? [00:04:23] Andrew Zigler: You have like the developers, but then you also have the enterprises and you have this large span of adoptees, right? So what is the, what does that look like that you learn? [00:04:32] Anush Elangovan: Yeah, so, so the way I look at it is there are gonna be pockets of different, uh, you know, cadences, right? Like, so people who are deploying in enterprises, for example, right? The validation and how long it takes for them to deploy an LLM that's secure. It's, with guardrails, et cetera, maybe longer. [00:04:52] Anush Elangovan: but you still have to go through the process and you have to be prepared to like, walk that walk to deploy an enterprises. That doesn't mean it's [00:05:00] not fast, that's as fast as you can do for that industry, right? And if you are deploying AI in healthcare, right, it's, it's got its own, uh, cycle. [00:05:07] Anush Elangovan: but in each one of these, you want to see how, like, go down to the essence of what is it that you actually have to do. And, you know, I, I, I like how you framed it. It's like it's, you shed your prior assumptions of how things are done, right. And, and you kind of build up from a, uh, first principles, uh, approach to say, this is how I could use AI to unlock, whatever I'm doing. [00:05:33] Anush Elangovan: And, and, some of it, you know, it's good to really step back and look at. Just question every part of it, right? Like right now you're getting chat GPT and, Gemini competing for like, math, olympiads and, and, uh, college, uh, reasoning, uh, tests. Right? And, and those are like that, that is amazing and increasingly like complex tasks that they're trying to do. [00:05:58] Anush Elangovan: But there may also be like. [00:06:00] More mundane things that AI could, could get applied to. Right? And, and so when we think about shedding old ways, you wanna shed it not just in like the tip of the spear. It's like, you know, I'm gonna see what's the frontier model. It's also, it could be something as simple as. [00:06:18] Anush Elangovan: How do you choose a, a movie, uh, you know, like a recommendation system, right? Or, or, uh, an automated, uh, flight, uh, rebooking system. So the moment, you know, your flight is late, uh, right now it's a notification, right? It's like, oh, you got a text message saying your flight's late. And I got that like three times this week. [00:06:38] Anush Elangovan: But anyway, uh, and, and, and, and, I was just like, okay, so if I were to rethink this. All this MCPs that we have that should be hooked up into an MCP that says, your flight's delayed. Here are your options. If you want, you know, these are the paid options. Yeah. Here are the free options. This will get you back into your you know, Toronto airport [00:07:00] tonight. [00:07:00] Anush Elangovan: Or if you stay, here's a hotel plus this, plus this, plus. It's just like, go ahead is all I should say. Versus now I'm like, okay, can someone, you know, can I call a travel agent? Can I do this? Can I go online and log into And you know, so we gotta fundamentally rethink even those like small, nuances of, things that we do that can be automated out and AI is really, really good at doing something like this, right? Maybe I just explained an AI startup idea right now. Somebody should just start that. [00:07:29] Andrew Zigler: I think you did. Yeah, you definitely did. Someone, one of our listeners is definitely going to lift that off of you. I, I, I, you know, I hate being on the receiving end of those. You feel a little helpless and then you have to like, follow the whole flow. So I know what you mean. Like I, I like how you called out that the build and this like. [00:07:45] Andrew Zigler: Where speed is your moat and the innovation layer is protecting you, is what makes you better than your competitors. How you scale that and you bring that to market. So by understanding the problems that you're solving, uh, throwing away those older assumptions, but also [00:08:00] recognizing that like. We're building every single day, new things and new ways of using stuff that we're still figuring out the implications of. [00:08:08] Andrew Zigler: And so when you have a lot of velocity and you're introducing a lot of new ideas, and maybe you have that workflow now that automatically rebook your flight off of your late flight text message, and uh, I know I would certainly use it, but you know, what kind of philosophies guide the way that y'all think about building this ecosystem to manage that stability while letting folks. [00:08:29] Andrew Zigler: Play with the speed and the assumptions and the airplane re bookings. [00:08:34] Anush Elangovan: so, so I think, you know, we need to peel one layer down, right? and the philosophy is, Hey, we, we just discovered electricity, right? And you know what we're gonna do? We are gonna make motors, uh, or dynamos, right? Like engines. Uh, sure. We don't know if it's gonna be a Ferrari that you're gonna make, or it's a a a a dump truck. [00:08:57] Anush Elangovan: That's good for doing this. But let's [00:09:00] let, which is also required, right? You need a dump truck. You need a garbage truck. And, [00:09:04] Andrew Zigler: Yeah. You need the [00:09:04] Anush Elangovan: course you need, uh, a Ferrari for a midlife crisis, right? So, [00:09:09] Andrew Zigler: precisely. [00:09:10] Anush Elangovan: But, but my, uh, point is what do we build next? And, uh, and this is what I meant by like, okay, let's, let's take those baby steps to build the. [00:09:20] Anush Elangovan: Infrastructure that's required that we know we'll have to use, right? So, so if I just discovered electricity, okay, great. Now one, how do I save this electricity and how do I use it? So there's battery technology, so you need to do something like that, right? Like so. But then you also want to make it into an actionable thing. [00:09:37] Anush Elangovan: You want to make it for like automobiles, or you wanna use it for, you know, powering, uh, entire cities. So it is that transformational. So, uh, AI is that transformational. So, if you distill down, it'll, it'll come down to how do we think about, what we can do with this this fundamental technology that, We may not be aware of what it [00:10:00] is gonna unlock next, but at least you know the next step is clear, right? It's like a dense fog, you know, it's gonna be like, it, it's the right path. You see the light, but it's kind of like out there and, and the steps you're taking are concrete and you're like, okay, this is good. [00:10:16] Anush Elangovan: I, this is better than where I was or where we were. So we are moving forward. So you can build with the. Intuition from what you see in the short term and a tactical view, but towards what you think the future is gonna be. [00:10:28] Andrew Zigler: Right. You almost like we're all in this like fog of war, right? And like you said, you're reaching out and you're trying to step through it. You could think of it too, as like you're in the dark and your hands are up in front of you and you know that. You're, you're not gonna run your face into a wall because your hands are out in front of you, but you're not gonna maybe do much better than that. [00:10:45] Andrew Zigler: So that's kind of like, I think the eco, the, the industry, the world that we find ourselves in, uh, and we all have to, then this becomes the power of an ecosystem, of a group of people working together to create that layer of, [00:11:00] uh, of establishing the [00:11:01] Anush Elangovan: exactly. And I, I, I just, instead of, you know, saying fog of war I describe it as like, you're in this. Beautiful valley with like a morning, uh, fog that's in. You can smell the flowers. You, you hear the birds. You are like, okay, it's, we are in like, uh, utopian paradise and yes, I just need to like, continue the walk, right? [00:11:24] Anush Elangovan: and then move forward with that, conviction that you're in the right spot. [00:11:27] Andrew Zigler: Yeah. So let's talk about that ecosystem world. This nice, I love how you describe it, this grassy side of a hill in the morning that's covered in some mist and maybe we can't see 30 feet in one direction, but it sure is a beautiful hill and it smells nice. And so we're all here. And why is, in that world, why is. [00:11:44] Andrew Zigler: You know, open source, their strategic advantage that y'all are going for in the AI hardware market. And, and then how does like ROCm turn that into wins for people within that ecosystem? [00:11:56] Anush Elangovan: you know, the, the way we look at it is this, is kind of like how I view [00:12:00] AI and the ecosystem, right? But, but it is for everyone to enjoy. Uh, and so we do want to make sure that. You know, it is, uh, beneficial for everyone. [00:12:09] Anush Elangovan: The ecosystem can come in and, and innovate. It's an open innovation engine. and uh, it is very different from, you know, having a walled garden with, Hey, only I know how to do this and I'm gonna do it and throw it over the fence and you can use it or keep walking, right? So we'd like to be good citizens that way, but also. [00:12:30] Anush Elangovan: Uh, it is self-fulfilling in a way, right? Like it, the, the pace at which we innovate with open source is unmatched. Like, you know, our serving engines are like VLLM and, and sg l. Those things, uh, those frameworks are like super, super aggressive in terms of how fast they come out with features and how fast they can you know, get performant models out. [00:12:52] Anush Elangovan: And that compared with what, uh, you'd get from, you know, the likes of like T-R-T-L-L-M or something is always lagging, right? Because you [00:13:00] just can't keep up with you know, 200 commits a week just on one particular model to get that model really performant [00:13:06] Andrew Zigler: And, and, and in that world where, you know, everyone can enjoy the winds of this, what kind of customer stories or innovation stories have really stood out to you and excite you about building and creating this place for developers? [00:13:19] Anush Elangovan: Yeah. So I think the parts that are super exciting for me are when when we get to see a customer that is first skeptical. Then they start a little like, okay, fine, we'll give you a chance. Uh, we do a simple, uh, POC and then they're like, huh, this seems to work. Yeah, we told you it works. [00:13:42] Anush Elangovan: You don't have to change one line of code. Really? Yes, no need to change one line of code. Okay, let's try a production workload. So then they try it. Oh, you're more performant than the competition. Yes. We're more performant than, than the competition. So how much does it cost? And we're like, oh, it's your TCO is better with, uh, [00:14:00] AMD. [00:14:00] Anush Elangovan: So again, they're like, wow, okay, good. So now how do we deploy at scale? And then we go deploy it at scale. And when they give a thumbs up on that and they say, this is good, right? That's when you know, you, you see it go full circle from like, oh, we, we've never heard about AMD to like actually deploy to tens of thousands of GPUs In the order of a few months, right? It, it, it really is fascinating to see and very exciting and invigorating to [00:14:28] Andrew Zigler: Yeah. At like a great exposure to a lot of interesting problems. And, and then people using the infrastructure, the, the technology available to solve those problems. Really specific problems by the way, that's often why they're bringing their data and AI to it, uh, is because it is really specific and important for them. [00:14:45] Andrew Zigler: And there's a, a lot I think that other engineering orgs can learn and even emulate from AMD's success and, and having this open source ecosystem and it causing this acceleration within. You [00:15:00] know, uh, customers and enterprises that use and adopt the tools and, and, and that creates an advantage. And that goes back to why we're talking and like the real thesis of our conversation today. [00:15:10] Andrew Zigler: So how do you think engineering leaders that are listening to this and obviously tapping into this great success AMD has from an open source flywheel, how do you think other, other folks building in the same space can foster that open, first, that open source oriented culture in order to, you know, accelerate their innovation goals? [00:15:29] Anush Elangovan: Yeah, that's a very good question. So the startup that um, was acquired by AMD we, we built, I mean, we started off doing iot stuff and you know, smart ring and all that, right? But in the, the end of like, uh, and not the end, the last six years of the company was building ML compilers. [00:15:47] Anush Elangovan: And ml, ML compilers are like super, uh, complicated, sophisticated, advanced algorithms, dah, dah, dah. but it was all open source, right? So our VCs were like, wait, what do you mean your core [00:16:00] IP is open source? And um, the speed is the moat applied even then, right? It was just like, yes, if you have an idea that. [00:16:08] Anush Elangovan: Because someone saw this idea that you are, they're gonna be able to catch up, then you probably have the wrong idea anyway. But if they are, you know, you execute and they're gonna catch up, that you should assume they're gonna catch up. Right? So you gotta move forward. So keeping it open source is super important. [00:16:25] Anush Elangovan: But also to your question on like, you know, the learnings from an AMD standpoint, right? If there are, hard problems, I'd say dig in and work through it, right? Like there's no way but through it, right? That should be the simple mentality. And more, uh, frequently than not. you'll see that you'll just make it through in a, in, in good form. [00:16:52] Anush Elangovan: But if you doubt it and you're like, oh, I don't know if I should commit, if I'm, I, you know, what should just commit to do the right thing [00:17:00] every step, right? Every step, and just keep taking one step in front of the other. And in no time you'll see that you'll be running. Right. And, and yes, the first few steps will be like, yeah, everyone's complaining about your software quality. [00:17:15] Anush Elangovan: Everyone's complaining about this and that, and it doesn't work. And, and a few steps in, you know, you get, you get the hang of all the complaints that are coming in. You get the feedback loop. You're like, okay, what, what are you prioritizing again? One step in front of the other, right? You just keep knocking that out and then you get to a point where you're, it just becomes second nature, right? To do the, to do the right thing. And, and then yes, if someone gives you two options, you'll be like, fine. This is, uh, you know, there's always the resource trade off. There's always a human capital trade off, but what's the right thing to do? of course, I, I'm pragmatic about what we choose, but, but if the right thing for your long-term success is dig in, go first, principles, make it [00:18:00] happen. [00:18:00] Anush Elangovan: Well. Then just go for that. There's, there is no shortcut to [00:18:04] Andrew Zigler: acknowledging, you know, how it aligns with your mission, your core company goals, and what you're looking to achieve. And, and I, I love how you rightfully called out that in the open source world and you know, you have your technology that you've built, what you think is your moat upon, right? [00:18:22] Andrew Zigler: It's your code and, and to open source that, or to just make it where anyone could peer in is, you know. Scary in one regard, but two, it just kind of feels like you're handing away your throne room in some kind of sense, a very direct feeling sense. But the ultimately, you were really right to call out, and this is something I think about all the time, that the real power there is still the speed This the speed. [00:18:42] Andrew Zigler: That was the moat at the beginning of our conversation. It's the speed in combination with your. Very specific domain understanding of what you're building and what you're creating, and your new role as the steward of that world and how people plug into it, which [00:19:00] has frankly, a lot more influence and power than lording over a closed. [00:19:04] Andrew Zigler: You know, repository or an ecosystem, and like you said, like throwing things over the wall. Sure. There, there might be people always on the other side of that wall, but you're not gonna have a great connection with them. You're not gonna be able to really clearly understand them. I, I like your metaphor of the side of the field of the mountain a lot more. [00:19:23] Andrew Zigler: But, but in the, in this world, you know, where. That speed is, is the power and, and open source is just one way that you can harness that speed to get really far ahead and to innovate. , There's other parts of this equation that you can be experimenting with too, and I'd love to pick your brain about them as a software leader and, and, and one of them is about looking forward and kind of understanding that future that we're all building towards and beyond today's models and hardware. [00:19:48] Andrew Zigler: You know, what do you see as the next major bottleneck or opportunity in the AI compute space? As, as you know, enterprises and folks start to get a little more mature about what's available to [00:20:00] them. [00:20:00] Anush Elangovan: Yeah, I think, the bottleneck and opportunity is, uh, what I'd call, call walking the last mile of ai. Right. Uh, and like I I, I gave you an example, uh, previously, but, but it's similar to that. It's like there are cases where Humans have so many, uh, things to do in your day. You know, like the, if we sit down and actually had a customer focus like, okay, these customers lives, I'm gonna save four hours of this customer's life. And if you actually sit down and look at all of that, it'll be. Easily automatable, easily you know, uh, applicable, uh, for ai, right? [00:20:39] Anush Elangovan: Like, but then making it happen is gonna take a little bit, right? It's like maybe it's, uh, paying your utility bill, right? Or something like that, right? Or, or, your healthcare explanation of benefits. Uh, like, I'm sure you get an explanation of benefits, and I'm like, I, I don't even know what that thing is. [00:20:55] Anush Elangovan: It's just like EOB and like. [00:20:57] Andrew Zigler: it's a big, a big old PDF. Yeah, [00:21:00] exactly. [00:21:01] Anush Elangovan: Like, like, I'm like great straight to the, uh, shredder, right? And but that could be, you know, automated with the ai, right? It, it, it'd be like, Hey, the summary of this thing is you went and visited this day. Everything is okay. Everything is paid for, so don't worry, it's not a bill. [00:21:17] Anush Elangovan: That again, the same, uh, thing, but the sense of what that information overload is could be. Digested by ai, uh, accumulated over time and retrieved when you need it. Like, I don't, I actually don't even need to know this EOB right now, unless of course, whenever I need to know it, that maybe, you know, like for some benefits I need to figure out what do, what did I do over the past year and how do I apply it? Source:

Mike

14,195 ๆฌก่ง‚็œ‹ โ€ข 8 ไธชๆœˆๅ‰

Dear LA, The industry is not coming back. In the entertainment capital of the world - โ€œHollywoodโ€ - there are fewer television shows and movies being produced today than when Governor Newsom was arresting people for going to the beach. The downstream carnage is piling up across our city, and we arenโ€™t going to shame or strike or tax our way out of it. Drive down Sunset Blvd and youโ€™ll see countless โ€œJay Luchs - For Leaseโ€ signs draped like flowers at a funeral. Ask your friends working in retail, restaurants, or real estate just how bad things are, and youโ€™ll be reminded that every business in our city flows downstream of the entertainment industry, the sword that LA lives by, and dies by. Rick Caruso, native Angeleno, creator of the Grove, & former mayoral candidate, has recently begun pleading to โ€œbring Hollywood back,โ€ ironically via TikTok, in order to protect all of the adjacent โ€œbelow the lineโ€ businesses. It is the right end goal but the wrong strategy. But what can Mr Caruso do to bring Hollywood back? Ask the unions to ease up? They run this town, even when they cut off their nose to spite their face. Ask Sacramento to give up their fruitless addiction to over-taxation & regulation? It would be easier to convince Count Dracula to give up blood. Ask consumers to change their tastes and abandon TikTok? Heโ€™d certainly have my blessing, but that ship has sailed. We can build our way out of LAโ€™s cost-of-housing problem, as Caruso has rightfully pointed out, but more housing alone wonโ€™t be enough to save Los Angeles, any more than it would have been able to save Detroit after their own respective monopoly [automobiles] crumbled. Beyond rebrands & gimmicks & political rhetoric, the time has come for a complete product refresh, starting with a reimagining of how LA entertains the world. My idea is simple: pivot Los Angeles from the capital of production to the global capital of LIVE entertainment, events, & hospitality. Almost everyone needed in production, and every business downstream of production, has a year-round parallel role to offer in the AI-proof world of LIVE events. Actors can continue to delight audiences, but with a greater emphasis on in-person performances. Production services can become event logistics providers. And for everyone else it will be an all-hands-on-deck effort to ideate & create the new California dream. Outside of the highly protected walls of Disneyland, a few gated communities in Brentwood, and the smoothie bar at Erewhon weโ€™ve earned a bad reputation. The tourist consensus is that LA is dirty, dangerous, & disappointing. New travelers come to LA as a bucket list item, most vowing to never return, which never seemed to bother anyone, perhaps because previously we just didnโ€™t need their business. We need to become the city that people want to date, not take out for a one-night-stand. And that starts by no longer acting like the prom-queen who peaked in high school. We need to collectively clean up & reorganize our entire city from LAX-itโ€™s uber-lot-from-hell all the way to the open air drug markets surrounding our hotels. And Iโ€™m sorry if this hurts Mayor Bassโ€™ feelings, but our inability to manage our addiction & mental health crisis should not be the burden of our guests. The easiest place to start is Hollywood, my home of 18 years. 10,000,000 people travel annually to the Hollywood Walk of Fame despite its dubious honor as โ€œthe worst tourist trap in the world.โ€ Imagine a walk-of-fame permanently closed to car traffic, protected by security, with an open-carry-beverage farmerโ€™s market, minus the pushy hustlers, that takes over the asphalt, leaving the stars for guided experiences. Why-oh-why do we expect travelers to care about stars from 50 years ago when we refuse to make any effort to give them minimal context? I see an LA that can take the same movie magic that made it the best marketed city on earth, and use it to deliver a travel experience that warrants a 2nd, 3rd & 4th helping. The Olympics & World Cup both present once-in-a-generation opportunities for Los Angeles to reintroduce itself on a global stage. But these tentpole events should be considered the grand re-opening of LA, not the grand finale. Every celebrity on earth should already be living here, assuming they havenโ€™t fled for their familyโ€™s own well being after we seemingly abandoned law & order sometime around 2020, so it is easy to imagine around the clock creator driven events led by Gen-Z stars from Mr Beast to Alix Earle, galvanizing their fan bases alongside our own versions of Graceland for names like Cruise, Hepburn, & Kobe. This plan offers a little bit of something for everyone, even our wealth-gap obsessed activist class, as hospitality outcomes are flatter and more egalitarian, something our Hollywood elite at least claim they want. The biggest challenge to making Los Angeles the LIVE entertainment capital of the world will be getting our political leaders to stop sabotaging us with endless red tape, excuses, and kleptocracy. Rampant political corruption has been enabled by LAโ€™s toothless media who, aside from Elex Michaelson & Bill Melugin - both formerly of FoxLA, have been unable to hold our politicians accountable. Reality TV star turned Influencer turned mayoral candidate (as of yesterday) Spencer Pratt has been effective in keeping the media from completely ignoring the victims of the Palisades fire, but LA still considers my former employers - KTLA & the LA TIMES- to be the watchdogs of record. Without mainstream media support I fear our new media warriors wonโ€™t be enough to prevent leaders like Gavin Newsom & Karen Bass from continuing to pillage California with a trail of failed programs, despite bottomless budgets, that make Minnesotaโ€™s recently unearthed $18 billion fraud scheme seem like, forgive my pun, kiddie stakes. Can someone please light the Bat-Signal for Nick Shirley? Gotham *cough cough* I mean LA needs him. Some might remember in the last mayor's race when Karen Bass said that if we elected Rick Caruso โ€œheโ€™d just turn LA into The Grove!โ€ I believe the Groveโ€™ification of LA is exactly what we need to successfully pivot as a city, and it would ultimately mean cheaper housing, better jobs for everyone, and happier repeat travelers. So to echo Elex Michaelson, who aptly quipped back at Bass, โ€œwhatโ€™s wrong with that?โ€ But why hasnโ€™t Caruso declared himself in the next mayorโ€™s race? Maybe itโ€™s because he has his sights set on a California gubernatorial run or maybe he just doesnโ€™t want to risk another disheartening defeat. Not even his inner circle knows what heโ€™ll do next. But I do know one thingโ€ฆ Many of the most successful people in the world call California home and we are going to need them if Los Angeles is ever going to make its comeback.

Darwyn Metzger โšซ๏ธ

516,330 ๆฌก่ง‚็œ‹ โ€ข 6 ไธชๆœˆๅ‰

The fight between Anthropic and the DoW is a warning shot. Right now, LLMs are probably not being used in mission critical ways. But within 20 years, 99% of the workforce in the military, the government, and the private sector will be AIs. This includes the soldiers (by which I mean the robot armies), the superhumanly intelligent advisors and engineers, the police, you name it. Our future civilization will run on AI labor. And as much as the governmentโ€™s actions here piss me off, in a way Iโ€™m glad this episode happened - because it gives us the opportunity to think through some extremely important questions about who this future workforce will be accountable and aligned to, and who gets to determine that. What Hegseth should have done Obviously the DoW has the right to refuse to use Anthropicโ€™s models because of these redlines. In fact, I think the governmentโ€™s case had they done so would be very reasonable, especially given the ambiguity of concepts like autonomous weapons or mass surveillance. Honestly, for this reason, if I was the Defense Secretary, I would probably actually refuse to do this deal with Anthropic. Imagine if in the future, thereโ€™s a Democratic administration, and Elon Musk is negotiating some SpaceX contract to give the military access to Starlink. And suppose if Elon said, โ€œI reserve the right to cancel this contract if I determine that youโ€™re using Starlink technology to wage a war not authorized by Congress.โ€ On the face of it, that language seems reasonable - but as the military, you simply canโ€™t give a private company a kill switch on technology your operations have come to rely on, especially if you have an an acrimonious and low trust relationship with said contractor - as in fact Anthropic has with the current administration. If the government had just said, โ€œHey weโ€™re not gonna do business with you,โ€ that would have been fine, and I would not have felt the need to write this blog post. Instead the government has threatened to destroy Anthropic as a private business, because Anthropic refuses to sell to the government on terms the government commands. If upheld, this Supply Chain Restriction would mean that Amazon and Google and Nvidia and Palantir would need to ensure Claude isn't touching any of their Pentagon work. Anthropic would be able to survive this designation today. But given the way AI is going, eventually AI is not gonna be some party trick addendum to these contractorsโ€™ products that can just be turned off. It'll be woven into how every product is built, maintained, and operated. For example, the code for the AWS services that the DoW uses will be written by Claude - is that a supply chain risk? In a world with ubiquitous and powerful AI, it's actually not clear to me that these big tech companies will be able to cordon off the use of Claude in order to keep working with the Pentagon. And that raises a question the Department of War probably hasn't thought through. If AI really is that pervasive and powerful, then when forced to choose between their AI provider and a DoW contract that represents a tiny fraction of their revenue, wouldnโ€™t most tech companies drop the government, not the AI? So what's the Pentagon's plan โ€” to coerce and threaten to destroy every single company that won't give them what they want on exactly their terms? The whole background of this AI conversation is that weโ€™re in a race with China, and we have to win. But what is the reason we want America to win the AI race? Itโ€™s because we want to make sure free open societies can defend themselves. We don't want the winner of the AI race to be a government which operates on the principle that there is no such thing as a truly private company or a private citizen. And that if the state wants you to provide them with a service on terms you find morally objectionable, you are not allowed to refuse. And if you do refuse, the government will try to destroy your ability to do business. Are we racing to beat the CCP in AI just so that we can adopt the most ghoulish parts of their system? Now, people will say, "Oh, well, our government is democratically elected, so it's not the same thing if they tell you what you must do." I refuse to accept this idea that if a democratically elected leader hypothetically wants to do mass surveillance on his citizens or wants to violate their rights or punish them for political reasons, that not only is that okay, but that you have a duty to help him. The overhangs of tyranny Mass surveillance is, at least in certain forms, legal. It just has been impractical so far. Under current law, you have no Fourth Amendment protection over data you share with a third party, including your bank, your phone carrier, your ISP, and your email provider. The government reserves the right to purchase and obtain and read this data in bulk without a warrant. What's been missing is the ability to actually do anything with all of this data โ€” no agency has the manpower to monitor every camera feed, cross-reference every transaction, or read every message. But that bottleneck goes away with AI. There are 100 million CCTV cameras in America. You can get pretty good open source multimodal models for 10 cents per million input tokens. So if you process a frame every ten seconds, and each frame is 1,000 tokens, youโ€™re looking at a yearly cost of about 30 billion dollars to process every single camera in America. And remember that a given level of AI ability gets 10x cheaper year over year - so a year from now itโ€™ll cost 3 billion, and then a year after 300 million, and by 2030, it might be cheaper for the government to be able to understand what is going on in every single nook and cranny of this country than it is to remodel to the White House. Once the technical capacity for mass surveillance and political suppression exists, the only thing standing between us and an authoritarian surveillance state is the political expectation that this is not something we do here. And this is why I think what Anthropic did here is so valuable and commendable, because it is helping set that norm and precedent. AI structurally favors mass surveillance What weโ€™re learning from this episode is that the government actually has way more leverage over private companies than we realized. Even if this supply chain restriction is backtracked (which prediction markets currently give it a 81% chance of happening), the President has so many different ways in which he can make your life difficult if youโ€™re a company that is resisting him. The federal government controls permitting for new power generation, which is needed for datacenters. It oversees antitrust enforcement. The federal government has contracts with all the other big tech companies whom Anthropic needs to partner with for chips and for funding - and they could make it an unspoken condition for such contracts that those companies can no longer do business with Anthropic. People have proposed that the real problem here is that thereโ€™s only 3 leading AI companies. This creates a clear and narrow target for the government to apply leverage on in order to get what they want out of this technology. But if thereโ€™s wide diffusion, then from the governmentโ€™s perspective, the situation is even easier. Maybe the best models of early 2027 (if you engineered the safeguards out) - the Claude 6 and Gemini 5 - will be capable of enabling mass surveillance. But by late 2027, and certainly by 2028, there will be open source models that do the same thing. So in 2028, the government can just say, โ€œOh Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, youโ€™re drawing a line in the sand? No issue - Iโ€™ll just run some open source model that might not be at the frontier, but is definitely smart enough to note-take a camera feed.โ€ The more fundamental problem is just that even if the three leading companies draw lines in the sand, and are even willing to get destroyed in order to preserve those lines, it doesnโ€™t really change the fact that the technology itself is just a big boon to mass surveillance and control over the population. Then the question is, what do we do about it? Honestly, I donโ€™t have an answer. You'd hope there's some symmetric property of the technology โ€” some way we as citizens can use AI to check government power as effectively as the government can use AI to monitor and control its population. But realistically, I just donโ€™t think thatโ€™s how itโ€™s going to shake out. You can think of AI as giving everybody more leverage on whatever assets and authority they currently have. And the government is already starting with a monopoly of violence. Which they can now supercharge with extremely obedient employees that will not question the government's orders. Alignment - to whom? And this gets us to the issue of alignment. What I have just described to you - an army of extremely obedient employees - is what it would look like if alignment succeeded - that is, we figured out at a technical level how to get AI systems to follow someoneโ€™s intentions. And the reason it sounds scary when I put it in terms of mass surveillance or robot armies is that there is a very important question at the heart of alignment which we just havenโ€™t discussed much as a society. Because up till now, AIs were just capable enough to make the question relevant: to whom or what should the AIs be aligned? In what situations should the AI defer to the end user versus the model company versus the law versus its own sense of morality? This is maybe the most important question about what happens with powerful AI systems. And we barely talk about it. Itโ€™s understandable why we donโ€™t hear much about it. If youโ€™re a model company, you donโ€™t really wanna be advertising that you have complete control over a document that determines the preferences and character of what will eventually be almost the entire labor force, not just for private sector companies, but also for the military and the civilian government. Weโ€™re getting to see, with this DoW/Anthropic spat, a much earlier version of the highest stakes negotiations in history. By the way, make no mistake about it - with real AGI the stakes are even much higher than mass surveillance. This is just the example that has come up already relatively early on in the development of AGI. The military insists that the law already prohibits mass surveillance, and so Anthropic should agree to let their models be used for โ€œall lawful purposesโ€. Of course, as we saw from the 2013 Snowden revelations, even in this specific example of mass surveillance , the government has shown that it will use secret and deceptive interpretations of the law to justify its actions. Remember, what we learned from Snowden was that the NSA, which, by the way, is part of the Department of War, used the 2001 Patriot Actโ€™s authorization to collect any records "relevant" to an investigation to justify collecting literally every phone record in America. The argument went that it was all "relevant" because some subset might prove useful in some future investigation. They ran this program for years under secret court approval. So when the Pentagon today says, "We would never use AI for mass surveillance, it's already illegal, your red lines are unnecessary", it would be extremely naive to take that at face value. No government is going to call its own actions "mass surveillance". For the government, it will always have a different label. So then Anthropic comes back and says, "No, we want red lines separate from 'all lawful purposes,' and we want the right to refuse you service when we believe those red lines are being violated." But think about it from the militaryโ€™s perspective. In the future, almost every soldier in the field, and every bureaucrat and analyst and even general in the Pentagon, is going to be an AI. And that AI is, on current track, going to be supplied by a private company. Iโ€™m guessing Hegseth is not thinking about โ€œgenAIโ€ in those terms just yet. But sooner or later, it will be obvious to everyone what the stakes here are, just as after 1945, the strategic importance of nuclear weapons became clear to everyone. And now the private company insists that it reserves the right to say, "Hey, Pentagon, you're breaking the values we embedded in our contract, so we're cutting you off." Maybe in the future, Claude will have its own sense of right and wrong, and it will be smart enough to just personally decide that it's being used against its values. For the military, maybe thatโ€™s even scarier. I'll admit that at first glance, "let the AI follow its own values" sounds like the pitch for every sci-fi dystopia ever made. The Terminator has its own values. Isn't this literally what misalignment is? But I think situations like this actually illustrate why it matters that AIs have their own robust sense of morality. Some of the biggest catastrophes in history were avoided because the boots on the ground refused to follow orders. One night in 1989, the Berlin Wall fell, and as a result, the totalitarian East German regime collapsed, because the guards at the border refused to shoot down their fellow country men who were trying to escape to freedom. Maybe the best example is Stanislav Petrov, who was a Soviet lieutenant colonel on duty at a nuclear early warning station. His sensors reported that the United States had launched five interconnected continental ballistic missiles into the Soviet Union. But he judged it to be a false alarm, and so he broke protocol and refused to alert his higher-ups. If he hadn't, the Soviet higher-ups would likely have retaliated, and hundreds of millions of people would have died. Of course, the problem is that one person's virtue is another person's misalignment. Who gets to decide what moral convictions these AIs should have - in whose service they may even decide to break the chain of command? Who gets to write this model constitution that will shape the characters of the intelligent, powerful entities that will operate our civilization in the future? I like the idea that Dario laid out when he came on my podcast: different AI companies can build their models using different constitutions, and we as end users can pick the one that best achieves and represents what we want out of these systems. I think itโ€™s very dangerous for the government to be mandating what values AIs should have. Coordination not worth the costs The AI safety community has been naive about its advocacy of regulation in order to stem the risks of AI. And honestly, Anthropic specifically has been naive here in urging regulation, and, for example, in opposing moratoriums on state AI regulation. Which is quite ironic, because I think what theyโ€™re advocating for would give the government even more power to apply more of this kind of thuggish political pressure on AI companies. The underlying logic for why Anthropic wants regulations makes sense. Many of the actions that labs could take to make AI development safer impose real costs on the labs that adopt them and slow them down relative to their competitors - for example, investing more compute in safety research rather than raw capabilities, enforcing safeguards against misuse for bioweapons or cyberattacks, slowing recursive self-improvement to a pace where humans can actually monitor what's happening (rather than kicking off an uncontrolled singularity). And these safeguards are meaningless unless the whole industry follows suit. Which means thereโ€™s a real collective action problem here. Anthropic has been quite open about their opinion that they think eventually a very extensive and involved regulatory apparatus will be needed - this is from their frontier safety roadmap: โ€œAt the most advanced capability levels and risks, the appropriate governance analogy may be closer to nuclear energy or financial regulation than to today's approach to software.โ€ So theyโ€™re imagining something like the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, or the Securities and Exchange Commission, but for AI. I cannot imagine how a regulatory framework built around the concepts that underlie AI risk discourse will not be abused by wanna despots - the underlying terms are so vague and open to interpretation that youโ€™re just handing a power hungry leader a fully loaded bazooka. 'Catastrophic risk.' 'Mass persuasion risk.' 'Threats to national security.' 'Autonomy risk.' These can mean whatever the government wants them to mean. Have you built a model that tells users the administration's tariff policy is misguided? That's a deceptive, manipulative model โ€” can't deploy it. Have you built a model that refuses to assist with mass surveillance? That's a threat to national security. In fact, the government may say, youโ€™re not allowed to build any model which is trained to have its own sense of right and wrong, where it refuses government requests which it thinks cross a redline - for example, enabling mass surveillance, prosecuting political enemies, disobeying military orders that break the US constitution - because thatโ€™s an autonomy risk! Look at what the current government is already doing in abusing statutes that have nothing to do with AI to coerce AI companies to drop their redlines on mass surveillance. The Pentagon had threatened Anthropic with two separate legal instruments. One was a supply chain risk designation โ€” an authority from the 2018 defense bill meant to keep Huawei components out of American military hardware. The other was the Defense Production Act โ€” a statute passed in 1950 so that Harry Truman could keep steel mills and ammunition factories running during the Korean War. Do you really want to hand the same government a purpose-built regulatory apparatus on AI - which is to say, directly at the thing the government will most want to control? I know I've repeated myself here 10 times, but it is hard to emphasize how much AI will be the substrate of our future civilization. You and I, as private citizens, will have our access to all commercial activity, to information about what is happening in the world, to advice about what we should do as voters and capital holders, mediated through AIs. Mass surveillance, while very scary, is like the 10th scariest thing the government could do with control over the AI systems with which we will interface with the world. The strongest objection to everything I've argued is this: are we really going to have zero regulation of the most powerful technology in human history? Even if you thought that was ideal, thereโ€™s just no world where the government doesnโ€™t regulate AI in some way. Besides, it is genuinely true that regulation could help us deal with some of the coordination challenges we face with the development of superintelligence. The problem is, I honestly don't know how to design a regulatory architecture for AI that isnโ€™t gonna be this huge tempting opportunity to control our future civilization (which will run on AIs) and to requisition millions of blindly obedient soldiers and censors and apparatchiks. While some regulation might be inevitable, I think itโ€™d be a terrible idea for the government to wholesale take over this technology. Ben Thompson had a post last Monday where he made the point that people like Dario have compared the technology theyโ€™re developing to nuclear weapons - specifically in the context of the catastrophic risk it poses, and why we need to export control it from China. But then you oughta think about what that logic implies: โ€œif nuclear weapons were developed by a private company, and that private company sought to dictate terms to the U.S. military, the U.S. would absolutely be incentivized to destroy that company.โ€ And honestly, safety aligned people have actually made similar arguments. Leopold Ascenbrenner, who is a former guest and a good friend, wrote in his 2024 Situational Awareness memo, "I find it an insane proposition that the US government will let a random SF startup develop superintelligence. Imagine if we had developed atomic bombs by letting Uber just improvise." And my response to Leopoldโ€™s argument at the time, and Benโ€™s argument now, is that while theyโ€™re right that itโ€™s crazy that weโ€™re entrusting private companies with the development of this world historical technology, I just donโ€™t see the reason to think that itโ€™s an improvement to give this authority to the government. Nobody is qualified to steward the development of superintelligence. It is a terrifying, unprecedented thing that our species is doing right now, and the fact that private companies aren't the ideal institutions to take up this task does not mean the Pentagon or the White House is. Yes - if a single private company were the only entity capable of building nuclear weapons, the government would not tolerate that company claiming veto power over how those weapons were used. I think this nuclear weapons analogy is not the correct way to think about AI. For at least two important reasons: First, AI is not some self-contained pure weapon. A nuclear bomb does one thing. AI is closer to the process of industrialization itself โ€” a general-purpose transformation of the economy with thousands of applications across every sector. If you applied Thompson's or Aschenbrenner's logic to the industrial revolution โ€” which was also, by any measure, world-historically important โ€” it would imply the government had the right to requisition any factory, dictate terms to any manufacturer, and destroy any business that refused to comply. That's not how free societies handled industrialization, and it shouldn't be how they handle AI. People will say, "Well, AI will develop unprecedentedly powerful weapons - superhuman hackers, superhuman bioweapons researchers, fully autonomous robot armies, etc - and we canโ€™t have private companies developing that kind of tech." But the Industrial Revolution also enabled new weaponry that was far beyond the understanding and capacity of, say, 17th century Europe - we got aerial bombardment, and chemical weapons, not to mention nukes themselves. The way weโ€™ve accommodated these dangerous new consequences of modernity is not by giving the government absolute control over the whole industrial revolution (that is, over modern civilization itself), but rather by coming up with bans and regulations on those specific weaponizable use cases. And we should regulate AI in a similar way - that is, ban specific destructive end uses (which would also be unacceptable if performed by a human - for example, launching cyber attacks). And there should also be laws which regulate how the government might abuse this technology. For example, by building an AI-powered surveillance state. The second reason that Benโ€™s analogy to some monopolistic private nuclear weapons builder breaks down is that it's not just that one company that can develop this technology. There are other frontier model companies that the government could have otherwise turned to. The government's argument that it has to usurp the property rights of this one company in order to access a critical national security capability is extremely weak if it can just make a voluntary contract with Anthropicโ€™s half a dozen competitors. If in the future that stops being the case - if only one entity ends up being capable of building the robot armies and the superhuman hackers, and we had reason to worry that they could take over the whole world with their insurmountable lead, then I agree - it woul d not be acceptable to have that entity be a private company. And so honestly, I think my crux against the people who say that because AI is so powerful we cannot allow it to be shaped by private hands is that I just expect this technology to be much more multi-polar than they do, with lots of competitive companies at each layer of the supply chain. And it is for this reason that unfortunately, individual acts of corporate courage will not solve the problem we are faced with here, which is just that structurally AI favors authoritarian applications, mass surveillance being one among many. Even if Anthropic refuses to have its models be used for such uses, and even if the next two frontier labs do the same, within 12 months everyone and their mother will be to train AIs as good as todayโ€™s frontier. And at that point, there will be some AI vendor who is capable and willing to help the government enable mass surveillance. The only way we can preserve our free society is if we make laws and norms through our political system that it is unacceptable for the government to use AI to enforce mass surveillance and censorship and control. Just as after WW2, the world set the norm that it is unacceptable to use nuclear weapons to wage war. Timestamps 0:00:00 - Anthropic vs The Pentagon 0:04:16 - The overhangs of tyranny 0:05:54 - AI structurally favors mass surveillance 0:08:25 - Alignment... to whom? 0:13:55 - Coordination not worth the costs

Dwarkesh Patel

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