𝐕𝐃𝐇: 𝐈𝐑𝐀𝐍 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐓 𝐀 𝐇𝐀𝐋𝐅 𝐓𝐑𝐈𝐋𝐋𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐃𝐎𝐋𝐋𝐀𝐑𝐒 𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝐈𝐓𝐒 𝐄𝐍𝐓𝐈𝐑𝐄 𝐌𝐈𝐋𝐈𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐘. 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐌𝐄𝐃𝐈𝐀 𝐖𝐎𝐍'𝐓 𝐓𝐄𝐋𝐋 𝐘𝐎𝐔. Victor Davis Hanson just did what no one in legacy media will do. He looked at the Iran war empirically. The verdict isn't close. Iran — 𝟗𝟑 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞, the largest military... power in the Middle East by every measure, feared by the Gulf monarchies and Europeans alike — has just suffered one of the most lopsided asymmetric defeats in modern history. Hanson: "𝘐𝘵'𝘴 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘶𝘯𝘶𝘴𝘶𝘢𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘣𝘦𝘦𝘯 𝘴𝘰 𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘢𝘯 𝘢𝘴𝘺𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘤 𝘸𝘢𝘳, 𝘦𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘨𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘴𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘪𝘥𝘥𝘭𝘦 𝘌𝘢𝘴𝘵." The scorecard: Iran has lost 𝐡𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 — possibly 𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐟 𝐚 𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐝𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐬 — in a half-century of investment in missiles, drones, submarines, and capital ships. Gone. Their command and control is "𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘥 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘳𝘥 𝘵𝘪𝘦𝘳." Nobody — not the theocracy, not the IRGC, not the political class, not the army — knows who's actually in charge. They're afraid of each other. They're afraid to look soft. And they're afraid that cutting a deal means "𝘸𝘦'𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘢𝘥 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘦'𝘷𝘦 𝘥𝘰𝘯𝘦." Meanwhile, the American left spent one day calling Trump a warmonger and a "𝘏𝘪𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘧𝘪𝘨𝘶𝘳𝘦." The next day, after he announced negotiations, they called him a "𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘰" — a Neville Chamberlain, a Jimmy Carter. Hanson nailed the pathology. They don't analyze the war empirically. They analyze it politically. In his words, Tom Friedman and Bill Kristol "𝘢𝘭𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘺𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘯𝘴 𝘯𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘪𝘯 𝘐𝘳𝘢𝘯 𝘮𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘣𝘦 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘪𝘵 𝘸𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘩𝘶𝘳𝘵 𝘋𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘥 𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘮𝘱." 𝟏𝟎𝟎,𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝐀𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐝𝐢𝐞𝐫𝐬 are in that theater right now. Risking their lives to make sure Iran never puts a nuclear-tipped missile on Tel Aviv, London, or eventually Chicago. And half the political class is 𝐫𝐨𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 because of who's in the Oval Office. Read that again. And the losers don't stop at Tehran. 𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚: no more Venezuela. No more Latin America. No more Middle East. Assad is gone. The drone pipeline with Iran is severed. Bogged down in Ukraine, bleeding over a million and a half casualties. 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚: took 80 percent of all Iranian oil. That pipeline is now contingent on the United States. And Beijing just watched America broadcast to the world that it's about to mass-produce a half-million to a million drones. Any fantasy of crossing 110 nautical miles to take Taiwan just got a lot more expensive. 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞, in Hanson's words, is "𝘢 𝘣𝘪𝘨 𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘳." We asked them for bases and airspace. That was it. Spain closed its embassy in Israel — "𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘱𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴, 𝘚𝘱𝘢𝘪𝘯 𝘪𝘴 𝘢 𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘵." France wouldn't let us use its airpower or clean up H-z-b in Lebanon, its own post-colonial responsibility. Italy wouldn't let our bombers land in Sicily. The United Kingdom — the nation that built the Royal Navy — "𝘤𝘢𝘯'𝘵 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘴𝘦𝘯𝘥 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘺𝘦𝘳" to protect its own base in Cyprus. Turkey, a NATO member, is openly siding with Iran and threatening a NATO partner, Israel. Hanson's verdict: "𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘣𝘭𝘦𝘮 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘕𝘈𝘛𝘖, 𝘯𝘢𝘮𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺." Going forward, the United States will pick and choose which NATO members are actually worth the alliance. The rest are "𝘦𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘯𝘦𝘶𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘰𝘳 𝘩𝘰𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘦." And the Strait of Hormuz? The left spent two weeks shrieking that closure would end the world. Reality: it carries 𝟐𝟎 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭 of world oil, 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝟖𝟎. The Saudis are expanding their Red Sea pipeline. The Emirates are expanding theirs. A pipeline across the desert through Jordan to Haifa is on the table. Within a few years, the Gulf "𝘮𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘷𝘦 𝘐𝘳𝘢𝘯." Their leverage becomes their liability. If the war ends in two or three weeks, Hanson estimates seven months to economic recovery. Then comes the realization. Iran is not threatening the Middle East. Iran has no ballistic missile threat. Iran has no immediate path to a nuclear weapon. Iran has no military. Its command and control is wiped out. Its population is stewing. "𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘣𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘬𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘉𝘦𝘳𝘭𝘪𝘯 𝘞𝘢𝘭𝘭." Not the next day. Not the next month. But within months — or within two years, like the Soviet Union — regime change. This war was fought on Western American terms. No Fallujah. No house-to-house in Taji. No villages in Afghanistan where you can't tell friend from enemy. The asymmetry — by design — was total. The 24-hour news cycle will keep shrieking. The Democrat-media borg will keep cycling through whichever narrative hurts Trump most that morning. But the map has already been redrawn. 𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚 𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝. 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚 𝐢𝐬 𝐡𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐝. 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐝. 𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧 𝐢𝐬 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐚𝐝𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬 𝐭𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐤 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐯𝐞𝐬.show more

And Iran has NOT dared to launch a single missile since the blockade began on Apr 13.

Dear VDH, You sir, are a National Treasure. Thank you for always espousing the truth which seems to be in short supply these days!🇺🇸

VDH is a mastermind. He removes the fog of leftist media gaslight and drills down to truthful analysis of the world. Read this one. Beautiful.

The communist accomplished their goal of poisoning our universities and eventually our news media. The country should be cheering for the work the Trump administration is doing on many fronts instead of the doom and gloom just so they can elect more Marxist Democrats.

Always enjoy ur posts, but I think all of this has to do more with out flanking China than actually helping the Middle East. After all, we really don’t need any oil from the ME, so why are we conducting this war? Yes, some may say we are protecting Israel, and that might be true. EU and Asia are much more dependent on ME oil and so, if it is about oil, then it’s their war, not ours. But, here’s the take. It started after Trump got re-elected and one of his main objectives was to rebalance trade with China and bring back critical production back to US. So, he used tariffs. He also banned critical high end semiconductors. This was devastating to China because the race for AI superiority will be key for global power moving forward. Check for US. How did China respond? By threatening to withhold critical rare earth minerals and magnets. Check for China. Trumps response? Cut off Venezuelan oil. Check US. Trumps second response. Cut off Iranian oil. Check mate Trump and US. Notice how Venezuela came first, and out of the blue? Hit the easy target first. Then the more difficult one that may be protracted. Not accident but by design. China without cheap oil and somewhat dependent on US to get oil, whether that is Venezuelan or middle eastern, is just the same… controlled by the US. Once again, check mate US.

Today’s democrat party.

Excellent; please useful idiot D voters escape the brainwash bubble of Deep State D party MSM(fact: all media heads connected to Obama)&read objective expert analysis!

The Left hates DJ Trump waaay more than they love this country.

@einerdrake Pep talk for the day!

@BretBaier In my opionion, America needs to maje every effort to keep the Iranian people informed. Quite possibly armed as well. Iranians have proven their desire for freedom. I foresee some type of infiltration to achieve that goal. A tough situation. Shoukd have been pre war tactic.

I don’t disagree with you about the media’s coverage of the war but I do believe the war was ill-timed, poorly planned, and we were not prepared for “Day 2”. Americans should have been leveled with, allies should have been consulted, and now, in my view, regime change must be the objective.

Always amazed at how perceptive and honest VDH is.

here's a shorter summary : We need to take the long historical view on the Iran war, not the 24-hour media cycle. The media and Democrats flip-flop daily: one day Trump is a warmonger, the next he’s weak. They view everything through politics, not empirical reality. Iran has suffered a devastating defeat. Its military is largely destroyed, hundreds of billions in missiles and drones are gone, and its command structure is in chaos. The regime is fractured and terrified of its own people. Russia has lost influence across the Middle East and Latin America. China is cut off from cheap Iranian oil. Europe proved unreliable — many NATO allies refused basic support. The Strait of Hormuz threat is fading as new oil routes develop. America fought this war on its own terms with superior technology and avoided endless ground occupations. In the long run, Iran’s nuclear ambitions are crippled, its ballistic missile threat is gone, and its population is angry. This could eventually lead to regime change, much like the fall of the Berlin Wall. Despite short-term noise, the strategic outcome heavily favors the United States and its interests.

Thank you for truthful analysis.

Really good take

I like how you did this. Victor Davis Hansen has always been good at cataloguing the history of a subject. Whether it be immigration, attempts to make Trump unelectable in 2024. Or the Iran war. Results of the war do indeed speak for themselves. Follow @VDHanson Subscribe to:

@BretBaier Bi tor is the Best. I am so happy to see him well again. He is a joy to listen to…

VDH is a national treasure!

I love ya VDH but stop buying the WH propaganda. The Iranian missile bases aren’t gone. They are currently digging them out and the Israelis say that they are intact. If fighting starts back up they can decimate the GCC and we will have oil shortages for decades.

And I don't think we should forget or vere from saying that Israel is helping and is a hand-and-glove partner in this war. We focused on the many military targets while they focused on eliminating Iranian leadership. We have both been targeted with "Death to.. " chants & actions.

Too neat a telling. Ronald Reagan initially downplayed the Falklands War. Margaret Thatcher pushed hard, knowing US interests in Argentina were in play. Only then did Washington shift. And let’s not forget Suez Crisis and US pressure on the pound. Iran point fair. UK US history far more nuanced than claimed.

VDH IS ALWAYS SPOT ON—And his analysis of the war on Iran is no exception!

Lickspittle! The rest of the world just thinks he's a nonce that's ignorantly committing war crimes to try and deflect from it.

Thank you for sharing

@BretBaier This is how you know Iran is winning like all the dipshit Dems are saying. Once your navy, Air Force and army have been destroyed, and your entire leadership has been wiped out, and your economy crippled, THATS how you know you are the victor!

VDH is so lost. Zionism broke his brain, as with so many before him.

@DonnaDiemer Victor is one if my favorites.

Russia hasn’t lost anywhere close to “a million and a half” casualties. You’re being lied to as part of the most ridiculous propaganda campaign since the days of Woodrow Wilson @VDHanson

VDH is such a great communicator. Love this post.

Love VDH!

Thank you for sharing VDH's take on current events! 🙏he is right!

Interesting update on Iran