𝐕𝐈𝐂𝐓𝐎𝐑 𝐃𝐀𝐕𝐈𝐒 𝐇𝐀𝐍𝐒𝐎𝐍 𝐓𝐎 𝐄𝐔𝐑𝐎𝐏𝐄: “𝐎𝐇, 𝐘𝐎𝐔 𝐖𝐀𝐍𝐓𝐄𝐃 𝐔𝐒 𝐓𝐎 𝐆𝐎 𝐈𝐍𝐓𝐎 𝐔𝐊𝐑𝐀𝐈𝐍𝐄 𝐓𝐎 𝐃𝐄𝐅𝐄𝐍𝐃 𝐘𝐎𝐔? 𝐁𝐔𝐓 𝐔𝐊𝐑𝐀𝐈𝐍𝐄’𝐒 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐀 𝐍𝐀𝐓𝐎 𝐏𝐎𝐖𝐄𝐑. 𝐓𝐇𝐈𝐒 𝐈𝐒 𝐘𝐎𝐔𝐑 𝐏𝐑𝐎𝐁𝐋𝐄𝐌. 𝐓𝐇𝐈𝐒 𝐈𝐒 𝐎𝐍 𝐘𝐎𝐔𝐑 𝐃𝐎𝐎𝐑𝐒𝐓𝐄𝐏. 𝐍𝐀𝐓𝐎 𝐃𝐎𝐄𝐒𝐍’𝐓 𝐌𝐄𝐀𝐍 𝐌𝐔𝐂𝐇 𝐀𝐍𝐘𝐌𝐎𝐑𝐄 — 𝐁𝐔𝐓 𝐖𝐄 𝐖𝐈𝐋𝐋 𝐇𝐀𝐕𝐄 𝐀 𝐒𝐏𝐄𝐂𝐈𝐀𝐋 𝐑𝐄𝐋𝐀𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍𝐒𝐇𝐈𝐏 𝐖𝐈𝐓𝐇 𝐘𝐎𝐔.” In about 90... seconds, Victor Davis Hanson — classicist, military historian, Hoover Institution senior fellow — walked through the end of the 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐭-𝟏𝟗𝟒𝟗 𝐀𝐭𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐫 and the beginning of what replaces it. He did it by ventriloquizing the exact conversation American leaders are no longer willing to have with European capitals. “𝘖𝘩, 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘸𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘶𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘨𝘰 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘰 𝘜𝘬𝘳𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦 𝘢𝘨𝘢𝘪𝘯 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘦𝘧𝘦𝘯𝘥 𝘺𝘰𝘶? 𝘉𝘶𝘵 𝘜𝘬𝘳𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦’𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘕𝘈𝘛𝘖 𝘱𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳. 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦’𝘴 𝘯𝘰 𝘈𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘭𝘦 5. 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘣𝘭𝘦𝘮. 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘰𝘯 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘥𝘰𝘰𝘳𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘱.” “𝘖𝘩, 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘸𝘢𝘯𝘵 𝘶𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘨𝘰 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘰 𝘚𝘦𝘳𝘣𝘪𝘢? 𝘈𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘚𝘦𝘳𝘣𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘶𝘱 𝘢𝘨𝘢𝘪𝘯? 𝘛𝘩𝘢𝘵’𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘕𝘈𝘛𝘖 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘣𝘭𝘦𝘮 𝘦𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳. 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘺’𝘳𝘦 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘕𝘈𝘛𝘖 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯.” “𝘠𝘰𝘶 𝘸𝘢𝘯𝘵 𝘶𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘨𝘰 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘰 𝘈𝘧𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘢, 𝘵𝘰 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘤𝘰𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘪𝘦𝘴, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘱 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘐𝘴𝘭𝘢𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘴 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘵𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘊𝘩𝘢𝘥? 𝘛𝘩𝘢𝘵’𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘣𝘭𝘦𝘮. 𝘖𝘩, 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘈𝘳𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘦 𝘨𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘮𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘸𝘢𝘯𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘍𝘢𝘭𝘬𝘭𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘣𝘢𝘤𝘬 𝘴𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘥𝘢𝘺? 𝘛𝘩𝘢𝘵’𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘣𝘭𝘦𝘮 𝘦𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳.” Hanson is not being flip. He is describing a real shift in the American strategic posture. For 75 years, the deal was simple: 𝐀𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲, 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐬. Europe spent its peace dividend on 32-hour work weeks, free college, and a carbon regime that deindustrialized its own economy. Meanwhile 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝟏𝟏 𝐨𝐟 𝟑𝟐 𝐍𝐀𝐓𝐎 𝐦𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐬 currently hit the agreed 𝟐% 𝐨𝐟 𝐆𝐃𝐏 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 floor (NATO Secretary General’s Annual Report, 2025). Germany spends 𝟏.𝟓𝟕%. Spain spends 𝟏.𝟐𝟖%. Italy spends 𝟏.𝟒𝟗%. And then European diplomats show up in Washington and ask where the American aircraft carriers are. Hanson’s prescription is not isolationism. It is the exact opposite: “𝘞𝘦 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘤𝘰𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯-𝘰𝘧-𝘵𝘩𝘦-𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘱𝘴. 𝘞𝘦 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘴𝘢𝘺 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘊𝘻𝘦𝘤𝘩𝘴, 𝘸𝘦 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘴𝘢𝘺 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘗𝘰𝘭𝘦𝘴, 𝘸𝘦 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘴𝘢𝘺 𝘵𝘰 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘮, 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵, 𝘸𝘦’𝘥 𝘭𝘪𝘬𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘣𝘢𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘈𝘻𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘴. 𝘠𝘰𝘶 𝘸𝘢𝘯𝘵 𝘢 𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘨𝘳𝘦𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵? 𝘉𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘕𝘈𝘛𝘖 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴𝘯’𝘵 𝘮𝘦𝘢𝘯 𝘮𝘶𝘤𝘩 𝘢𝘯𝘺𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦.” In other words: 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐝, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐳𝐞𝐜𝐡 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬, 𝐏𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐠𝐚𝐥 — 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐝 𝐨𝐧 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐟𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 get the American security umbrella. Germany, France, and Spain get to fund their own defense or talk to Moscow directly. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐀𝐭𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐝𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠. 𝐈𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐫𝐞𝐰𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐟𝐚𝐯𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐨 𝐤𝐞𝐩𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐞𝐧𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐠𝐞𝐭 𝐚 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐝. 𝐏𝐚𝐲 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐤 𝐮𝐩 𝐚 𝐫𝐢𝐟𝐥𝐞.show more

M.A. Rothman

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