Onur 🍌🦍's banner
Onur 🍌🦍's profile picture

Onur 🍌🦍

@0xc06114,452 subscribers

Trader || Alpha Threads 🧵 || DeFi Maxi ||

Videos

0xc06's profile picture

The privacy conversation in crypto has been stuck in 2019. Two camps shouting about whether people deserve to hide things… … while the constraints that actually decide this sit somewhere else entirely 👇🏻 ◢ No company can run payroll on a public ledger This is the boring commercial reason privacy matters and it gets almost no airtime. A business putting salaries, supplier terms and margins on a transparent chain hands its competitors a spreadsheet. Every institution that seriously looked at on-chain settlement hit this wall and went quietly back to settling off-chain. Confidentiality is a baseline requirement in normal commerce, and we built the one financial system that cannot provide it. ◢ Front-running needs an audience The part DeFi should care about most. Sandwich attacks work because your intent gets broadcast before it executes. So, a searcher reads your swap, jumps ahead of it, and sells it back to you at a worse price. Private execution deletes the thing being read. Privacy is a MEV defence, and that framing gets a fraction of the attention the compliance argument does. ◢ The first users get the worst privacy Any privacy system is only as strong as the crowd hiding inside it. With a few hundred users, timing and amounts correlate well enough to unpick a lot of the activity anyway. Early adopters carry real exposure while providing cover for everyone who shows up later. Anyone treating a young private network as bulletproof today has the maths backwards. ◢ A sealed chain with open edges Flawless privacy on-chain does nothing about the exits. Deposits and withdrawals still pass through venues that collect identity, and analytics firms are good at joining those dots. The technology closes the middle of the journey and leaves both ends roughly where they were. Genuinely useful, and much smaller than the marketing suggests. ◢ My take Opt-in privacy carries a design flaw nobody enjoys discussing. Choosing to hide marks you as somebody with a reason to hide, which is the exact attention you were trying to avoid. It only works when it arrives as the boring default that everyone gets without asking for it. So the metric worth watching next year sits away from proving times. How many wallets switch this on for people who never requested it, and whether any of them have the appetite to try.

Onur 🍌🦍

16,525 次观看 • 1 个月前

0xc06's profile picture

A protocol dying used to be loud. A nine-figure hack, a depeg, a founder going dark, a thread with a rising body count. SummerFi went out the other way, with a calm blog post and a thank-you. That quiet is worth paying attention to 👇🏻 ◢ Winding down is the responsible ending nobody rewards Give the team credit for how they left. Vaults paused fast, a clear statement, the app kept alive through August, governance handed to the DAO, users told exactly where they stand. This is the good version of failure. And it is precisely the version that gets no sympathy and no coverage, because there is no villain to point at and no drama to screenshot. We reward the projects that blow up spectacularly with attention and forget the ones that close the door politely. ◢ Their own capital in their own vaults was the real lesson Skin in the game is supposed to be the virtue. Founders eating their own cooking, aligned with users, exposed to the same risk. SummerFi did exactly that, and it is what killed the company rather than just bruising it. Full alignment means the same event that hurts your users can end your business in one move. Somewhere between zero skin in the game and betting the payroll on your own smart contracts, there is a line most teams have never actually thought about. ◢ Trust compounds slowly and settles in an afternoon Five years to build a reputation out of Maker. One accounting exploit to spend it. The asymmetry is brutal and it is the actual business model risk of DeFi, more than any single bug. You are not running a protocol, you are running a confidence account that takes years to fund and can be drained faster than the money itself. Most teams underwrite the code. Almost nobody underwrites the trust. ◢ The graveyard is filling up off-camera SummerFi is one name. The same week, a wallet provider announced its own shutdown after an exploit. The pattern is a slow thinning of the field that never makes it into a single dramatic headline, because each individual exit is too small to notice. Bull markets hide this. Everything looks alive when the money is flowing, and you only see how many projects quietly left when the tide is out. The uncomfortable question is how many of the ones you already trust are running on a confidence account that a single ordinary afternoon could empty, with a polite goodbye post as the only warning you ever get.

Onur

16,306 次观看 • 1 个月前

0xc06's profile picture

Chains all scale the same way now. Throw activity onto an L2, spin up another rollup, let the liquidity scatter and call it progress. Cardano Community went the other direction and it’s the more telling move 👇 ◢ Relocation, not Repair An L2 doesn't fix a congested base layer. It moves the congestion to a room with a different name. You get more bridges to drain, more chains that don't talk, users spread so thin that "the ecosystem" stops meaning one thing. It demos beautifully on launch day. that's the whole appeal. ◢ Nowhere to Hide Fixing the base layer is slower and a lot less forgiving. You can't ship it and walk away. It has to survive real load while the consensus that's secured the chain for years keeps holding, and if it cracks there's no rollup to point at. Leios picked the version with no escape hatch. ◢ The flex is what stayed the same Throughput is the number people will quote but it's not the interesting decision. The interesting decision was leaving the trust model untouched, growing capacity on top of what already works instead of ripping it out and praying the replacement holds. Restraint is harder to market than a big number, which is probably why nobody markets it. ◢ Read the packaging A swordsman's name. Five phases you have to clear in order. That framing is doing work. Ship-fast teams sell the destination; this one is selling the discipline of getting there, which is a quiet way of saying judge us on the grind, not the announcement. My take: in a market that pays out to whoever is loudest, choosing the slow unglamorous path to scale is almost a contrarian bet on itself. It doesn't make leios right, that's what months of testing are for. but "we made the base layer carry more without breaking what made it trusted" is a sentence that still means something in a year. 🔗 Testnet + SPO onboarding:

Onur

19,157 次观看 • 2 个月前

0xc06's profile picture

. Tether led a $1.4 billion round into a humanoid robot company. It out-bid nvidia and amazon to do it. Nobody is asking the obvious question: where does a stablecoin issuer get robot money? 👇 ◢ The Answer is Your Dollars When you hold USDT, you've parked a real dollar with tether. They take that dollar, buy US treasuries with it, and keep the yield. You get a token. They get the interest. Across $186B in circulation that interest came to over $10 billion in profit last year, on a margin near 99%. It might be the most profitable company per employee on earth, and it pays its depositors nothing. ◢ The Money Had to Go Somewhere ten billion a year is too much to sit in a bank account. So tether became a buyer: - $775M into Rumble - A 70% stake in a south american agribusiness - One of the largest bitcoin mining operations alive - Roughly 140 tons of physical gold. - Around 10% of Juventus - A brain-computer interface startup. And now, also $1.4B into robotics. More than a treasury strategy, this is a conglomerate. ◢ A Sovereign Fund Strip the crypto label and look at the shape of it. A single entity sitting on a treasury book bigger than most countries, throwing off cash it answers to no one for, buying farmland, energy, media, compute and gold across continents. + Forget fintech, here we are seeing the structure of a sovereign wealth fund, except no public owns it and no parliament reviews it. ◢ What Should Make You Pause The float is the genius and the risk: it costs tether nothing because you're not paid to provide it, and it grows every time someone new buys USDT. The bigger the stablecoin gets, the bigger the empire it funds. A tool people use to move dollars quietly turned into the funding base for a private balance sheet at sovereign scale. Everyone argues about whether the reserves are backed: wrong fight. Tether built sovereign-level power off a dollar token. nobody elected it. nobody owns it. who holds it accountable?

Onur

20,623 次观看 • 3 个月前

0xc06's profile picture

Tomorrow a company that holds close to 5% of all ethereum is set to join the russell 1000. Once done, index funds that have never had an opinion on crypto will be forced to buy it. Nobody in those funds chose this, a benchmark rule did it for them 👇 ◢ How index inclusion actually works Getting added to a major index is one of the strongest demand events in markets, and it has nothing to do with whether the company is good. Funds that track the russell 1000 have to hold what the russell 1000 holds, or they stop tracking it. So, when a stock joins, every passive fund benchmarked to that index becomes a forced buyer, at whatever the price is, on the schedule the index sets. Passive vehicles tend to hold something like 20 to 25% of a large-cap stock, which for this one points to roughly $2B of buying that arrives because a rule says it must. ◢ The part that makes it crypto Bitmine is not a normal company that happens to get indexed, it's an ethereum treasury, sitting on millions of $ETH as its core balance sheet. So the chain runs like this: the index adds the stock, passive funds are forced to buy the stock, and the stock is essentially a wrapper around a giant pile of ETH. The result is that ordinary equity index money ends up with ethereum exposure without a single person deciding they wanted it. No ETF approval, allocation vote or opinion required. ◢ A side door, not a front door Everyone in crypto watches the spot ETF as the official entrance for institutional money, the thing that needs sign-off and gets headlines. Index inclusion is the entrance nobody guards. strategy walked a bitcoin treasury into the nasdaq 100. Coinbase took a crypto exchange into the s&p 500. now an ethereum treasury is stepping into the russell 1000. Each time, the underlying business didn't change. what changed is who was suddenly required to own it. ◢ Why front-running it is harder than it looks The mechanism is concrete, but the easy trade around it usually isn't. The inclusion isn't final until the reconstitution actually closes, so the flow is conditional, not guaranteed. The stock is already down around 50% on the year, which is a reminder that a one-time wave of buying doesn't repair something tied to ETH's price and to confidence in the treasury model. And there's a quieter problem: "diversified" index funds are now obligated to hold a leveraged, single-asset crypto bet that most of their investors would never have picked on purpose. What it means that the biggest new buyer of a crypto-linked company is a rule, not a person, and that millions of people now hold a slice of ethereum because an index told their fund to?

Onur 🍌🦍

14,337 次观看 • 2 个月前

0xc06's profile picture

Everyone ranks L2s by TVL. But it’s the laziest scoreboard in crypto. It tells you where money is sitting, not who’s actually winning. Here’s what I look for 👇🏻 ◢ TVL = Vanity Metric Parked capital is not a business. A chain can hold billions in deposits and still bleed money every month covering its own costs. TVL measures where liquidity is camping today, not whether the chain earns, profits, or survives a real bear. for years we ranked these networks by the one number that says the least about their survival. ◢ The Pie Is Shrinking Here’s the part nobody says out loud. Total L2 revenue has been falling, not growing. After Dencun crushed data costs in 2024, fees collapsed with them, and the money these chains collectively earn dropped hard from its peak. So, this stopped being a land grab a while ago. It’s now a fight for share of a market that’s actively getting smaller, which changes everything about who actually wins. ◢ Rented Users Don't Count In a shrinking market, only one question matters: can you get users without paying for them. Incentives, airdrops, points farms, none of that is growth, it’s renting volume by the day. The second the rewards stop, the mercenaries leave and the chain goes silent. We already watched it happen to 50+ rollups that are functionally dead now, billions in “TVL” that vanished the moment emissions dried up. ◢ Distribution Beat Tech The one chain that actually solved this didn’t out-engineer anyone. The tech is good, not magic. What it really did was plug into a userbase it already owned and route millions of verified accounts onto the chain by default, at zero acquisition cost. Distribution beat technology, again. It's the most repeated lesson in this entire industry and still the one founders refuse to learn. ◢ The Real Ranking Stack the three majors up by who earns, who profits, and who keeps their users, instead of who has the most money parked on them, and the ranking flips from the one everyone repeats. I put them side by side in the video with the revenue, the profit, the users, and a flat verdict on each. So, in a market that’s contracting, would you rather own the chain with the most capital sitting on it, or the one that still earns when every incentive in crypto finally switches off?

Onur 🍌🦍

17,447 次观看 • 3 个月前

0xc06's profile picture

Last week, Mastercard, Visa, Ripple & Coinbase 🛡️ all shipped payment rails for AI agents. Every one of them reached for stablecoins Instead of traditional cards. A choice that is the whole story 👇🏻 ◢ An unpriced problem Card networks are built around a human pressing approve. One purchase, one confirmation, a fee that only makes sense above a certain size. Agents don’t work like that. They pay continuously, programmatically, often in fractions of a cent, for things like an API call or a second of compute. A bot paying $0.004 a thousand times an hour is a transaction pattern the card model physically can’t process at a profit. The rails we built for people don’t fit the machines. ◢ Four giants, one answer On june 3 mastercard opened card settlement in stablecoins across eight chains. On june 10 it launched Agent Pay for Machines, letting agents settle in stablecoins with permissions recorded onchain. The same day, ripple shipped a toolkit putting RLUSD and the x402 standard under agent payments, visa announced an agentic commerce tie-up with openai, and coinbase switched on agentic trading. Four of the biggest names in payments moved in a single week and all landed on the same primitive. ◢ Why it had to be stablecoins Strip out the branding and the requirements are mechanical. The money has to be programmable, so code can hold and move it without a bank in the loop. It has to clear sub-cent payments, which card fees make impossible. It also has to settle in seconds with finality, because that’s the speed agents run at. And it has to be always on, because machines don’t take weekends. A dollar in a bank account fails most of those, while a dollar as a stablecoin passes all of them. ◢ Conclusive Insights For years stablecoins were pitched at consumers who already had working banks and mostly didn’t bite. The adoption story kept underdelivering because the product was aimed at the wrong buyer. The agent economy doesn’t have that problem. It has no legacy banking relationship, no human patience, and no other option that clears at machine speed. The demand that stablecoins were always promised is finally showing up, but not from the customer everyone expected. My take: the entire stablecoin debate was framed around human payments, which is why it kept stalling.

Onur

13,737 次观看 • 2 个月前

没有更多内容可加载