Prakash
@8teAPi • 55,917 subscribers
FOLLOW ME for AI commentary; tech optimist, future shocked self-aware neuron, once fooled by superconductors;
Shorts
Videos
A new form of media is born. Ever the innovator, Trump has invented the Presidential thoughtbeam. It’s 3 minutes long.. it’s not a clip of a larger video. This was filmed specifically to be viewed in 3 minutes. Look at the pacing and cadence of delivery.. it’s fast, there’s a lot of bullet points he’s covering. There’s no backstory, it’s like 💥 and you’re in the flow of his stream of thought. It’s personal. He’s looking straight into the camera. He’s looking at you kid. He tones down the aggression. Can’t be in your face annoying. You’re not an opponent, you’re his citizen, he will be stern but fair. We’re witnessing a cult of parasocial personality built in real time with 21st century tools. Spellbound
Prakash2,505,526 views • 1 year ago
![Satya is Out TLDR: MSFT doesn’t believe in AGI, wary of overinvestment, OpenAI partnership is over A. AI and AGI are overhyped - “Us self-claiming some AGI milestone, that's just nonsensical benchmark hacking to me. The real benchmark is: the world growing at 10%.” B. Very negative on more capex spend from MSFT - “[If you look at the Industrial Revolution] there was a lot of money lost” - “…countries are going to deploy capital… I'm so excited to be a leaser… I build a lot, I lease a lot.“ C. Value in AI is in infra where there is overbuild, and B2C apps which OpenAI has won, negative on model layer - “in consumer, in some categories, there may be some winner-take-all network effect. ChatGPT is a great example [of a] at-scale consumer property that has already got real escape velocity” - “[in enterprise] buyers will not tolerate winner-take-all. … where the buyer is a corporation, an enterprise, an IT department, they will want multiple suppliers.. That is what will happen even on the model side.” - “In the model layer, one is models need ultimately to run on some hyperscale compute.” Opinion ———— 1. Satya is calling the bubble in buildout. The crazy people like govts are entering the game. He’s happy to lease from them when they overbuild. His own capex spend is capped 2. He’s disappointed in the OpenAI partnership - he sees them as having built a great consumer app for themselves with dominance in the category, but models for enterprise usage have gotten commoditized. 3. He’s sooo done with the AGI talk. If you can’t get to 10% global growth your AGI talk is meaningless to him 4. He’s backing MSFT from the capex precipice. It’s funny because he certainly did make Google dance, and now they’re committed to insane capex. But he’s outta here One of the most meaningful Dwarkesh Patel interviews so far](https://image.24vids.com/tw-1892383248661274699/amplify_video_thumb/1892383183347601413/img/AkX9qLIpnbdWWyBV.jpg)
Satya is Out TLDR: MSFT doesn’t believe in AGI, wary of overinvestment, OpenAI partnership is over A. AI and AGI are overhyped - “Us self-claiming some AGI milestone, that's just nonsensical benchmark hacking to me. The real benchmark is: the world growing at 10%.” B. Very negative on more capex spend from MSFT - “[If you look at the Industrial Revolution] there was a lot of money lost” - “…countries are going to deploy capital… I'm so excited to be a leaser… I build a lot, I lease a lot.“ C. Value in AI is in infra where there is overbuild, and B2C apps which OpenAI has won, negative on model layer - “in consumer, in some categories, there may be some winner-take-all network effect. ChatGPT is a great example [of a] at-scale consumer property that has already got real escape velocity” - “[in enterprise] buyers will not tolerate winner-take-all. … where the buyer is a corporation, an enterprise, an IT department, they will want multiple suppliers.. That is what will happen even on the model side.” - “In the model layer, one is models need ultimately to run on some hyperscale compute.” Opinion ———— 1. Satya is calling the bubble in buildout. The crazy people like govts are entering the game. He’s happy to lease from them when they overbuild. His own capex spend is capped 2. He’s disappointed in the OpenAI partnership - he sees them as having built a great consumer app for themselves with dominance in the category, but models for enterprise usage have gotten commoditized. 3. He’s sooo done with the AGI talk. If you can’t get to 10% global growth your AGI talk is meaningless to him 4. He’s backing MSFT from the capex precipice. It’s funny because he certainly did make Google dance, and now they’re committed to insane capex. But he’s outta here One of the most meaningful Dwarkesh Patel interviews so far
Prakash1,445,228 views • 1 year ago
The top post on the r/cursor subreddit is Claude Code running 8 agents in parallel
Prakash289,059 views • 11 months ago
Man these voices don’t sound anything alike. ScarJo, ScarJo as Her, and Sky
Prakash490,120 views • 2 years ago
![Dyson Sphere by 2040? > Paul Christiano gave a 15% probability a Dyson Sphere by 2040 on Dwarkesh Patel > So I invited Jason Wright , astronomer and astrophysicist at Penn State, a specialist on detecting alien technological signatures to figure out whether it would be possible Highlights: On The Physics of Dyson Spheres > On the Ultimate Limiter - Cooling: "The only thing you can do is put out radiators and let the heat radiate away... you don't have a river nearby, you can't do water cooling, you can't blow fans across it. There's no air." > On Building Them Hot, Not Cold: "I actually expect the Dyson spheres to be as hot as possible if they're maximizing computation... I think these things will be room temperature or warmer." On Building A Dyson Sphere > On Disassembling Jupiter: "You could disassemble Jupiter and build a Dyson sphere... He [Freeman Dyson] worked out the details like, it's totally possible to disassemble a planet." > On the Impossibility of a Quick Dyson Sphere: "It is literally impossible to build a Dyson sphere around the sun that quickly [in 50 years]... It's not that I'm not being imaginative. It's that there's not enough mass. The mass is in Jupiter." > On the Sheer Energy Required: "If you took all the energy the sun puts out for 50 years and with perfect efficiency used it to lift mass off of Jupiter, you would still not have enough time." > On the Key Technology Required: "I think you have to invoke exponential growth. You need some way to have a runaway exponential that mines so much material, builds so many things... I think it's self-replicating machines, Von Neumann machines." On Detecting Alien Civilizations > On the Impossibility of Hiding: "It's very hard to hide the fact that you're using energy... you can't keep it, you'll melt everything. And when you get rid of it, it'll be obvious." > On How Easy They Are to Find: "Such a thing would be extremely detectable... Even if it only captured 1 or 2% of a star's light altogether, that would still be quite obvious. It would look quite anomalous." > On Finding a Hidden Civilization: "You can put on infrared goggles and you'll see who's got the heat on. Like the houses that that are warm on the inside... you can see the heat coming off of those houses." > On Ruling Out Super-Civilizations: "We were able to show that out of the 100,000 closest galaxies to the Milky Way, there aren't any of those [Type III civilizations]." On The Space Industry Wrecking Science > On the Perfect Spot for Alien Hunting: "Putting a radio telescope on the far side of the moon would be amazing... the moon acts as a shield and there's no radio frequency interference." > On the Threat to the Lunar Far Side: "As soon as you say, 'Alright, we want to build something on the far side of the moon,' everyone's like, 'Great, let's build the infrastructure'... and they set up all this wireless communication across the moon. And you're like, 'That defeats the entire purpose.'" > On the Impact of Starlink on Science: "Starlink went up and just completely wrecked all of our plans for astronomy... And now every time it takes a picture, it gets 'Starlinked.' That's what we call it. Big old streaks through every image." > On the Race to Study Mars: "We kind of got to hurry up and do all of our life detection experiments before boots hit the ground there... As soon as people go to Mars, we will contaminate it." This was by far the best pod I've done so far. Links below:](https://image.24vids.com/tw-1984335636082671740/amplify_video_thumb/1984331765155295232/img/u1WG4Pnao6gWREMq.jpg)
Dyson Sphere by 2040? > Paul Christiano gave a 15% probability a Dyson Sphere by 2040 on Dwarkesh Patel > So I invited Jason Wright , astronomer and astrophysicist at Penn State, a specialist on detecting alien technological signatures to figure out whether it would be possible Highlights: On The Physics of Dyson Spheres > On the Ultimate Limiter - Cooling: "The only thing you can do is put out radiators and let the heat radiate away... you don't have a river nearby, you can't do water cooling, you can't blow fans across it. There's no air." > On Building Them Hot, Not Cold: "I actually expect the Dyson spheres to be as hot as possible if they're maximizing computation... I think these things will be room temperature or warmer." On Building A Dyson Sphere > On Disassembling Jupiter: "You could disassemble Jupiter and build a Dyson sphere... He [Freeman Dyson] worked out the details like, it's totally possible to disassemble a planet." > On the Impossibility of a Quick Dyson Sphere: "It is literally impossible to build a Dyson sphere around the sun that quickly [in 50 years]... It's not that I'm not being imaginative. It's that there's not enough mass. The mass is in Jupiter." > On the Sheer Energy Required: "If you took all the energy the sun puts out for 50 years and with perfect efficiency used it to lift mass off of Jupiter, you would still not have enough time." > On the Key Technology Required: "I think you have to invoke exponential growth. You need some way to have a runaway exponential that mines so much material, builds so many things... I think it's self-replicating machines, Von Neumann machines." On Detecting Alien Civilizations > On the Impossibility of Hiding: "It's very hard to hide the fact that you're using energy... you can't keep it, you'll melt everything. And when you get rid of it, it'll be obvious." > On How Easy They Are to Find: "Such a thing would be extremely detectable... Even if it only captured 1 or 2% of a star's light altogether, that would still be quite obvious. It would look quite anomalous." > On Finding a Hidden Civilization: "You can put on infrared goggles and you'll see who's got the heat on. Like the houses that that are warm on the inside... you can see the heat coming off of those houses." > On Ruling Out Super-Civilizations: "We were able to show that out of the 100,000 closest galaxies to the Milky Way, there aren't any of those [Type III civilizations]." On The Space Industry Wrecking Science > On the Perfect Spot for Alien Hunting: "Putting a radio telescope on the far side of the moon would be amazing... the moon acts as a shield and there's no radio frequency interference." > On the Threat to the Lunar Far Side: "As soon as you say, 'Alright, we want to build something on the far side of the moon,' everyone's like, 'Great, let's build the infrastructure'... and they set up all this wireless communication across the moon. And you're like, 'That defeats the entire purpose.'" > On the Impact of Starlink on Science: "Starlink went up and just completely wrecked all of our plans for astronomy... And now every time it takes a picture, it gets 'Starlinked.' That's what we call it. Big old streaks through every image." > On the Race to Study Mars: "We kind of got to hurry up and do all of our life detection experiments before boots hit the ground there... As soon as people go to Mars, we will contaminate it." This was by far the best pod I've done so far. Links below:
Prakash43,295 views • 7 months ago
![Zuck is Serious A. Researcher compensation needs to scale with GPU spend > "spending hundreds of billions of dollars on compute and ... do whatever it takes to get 50 or 70 ... top researchers" > "the amount that is being spent to to recruit the people is actually still quite small compared to the overall investment and all the compute that we're doing" B. Zuck's pitch to researchers > "the most computer per researcher" > "clean slate.. you get the opportunity to build a new lab from scratch" > "put that power into people's hands directly... with personal super intelligence" > "other labs... talk about ... developing the central super intelligence and directing it at grand problems" C. Zuck feels Meta was getting left behind and so is now going to overcommit to make sure that doesn't happen > "You know, we keep on uh like having goals for where we want to be and then the field keeps on moving faster than than we expect" > "think that we should bet and act as if [superintelligence] is going to be ready in the next 2 to 3 years" Opinion --------- A. Zuck is still not convinced that AGI/ASI is possible and will happen in the short term... but is prepared to gamble B. Repeats "hundreds of billions of dollars", he's prepared to spend whatever is required at this point. They are going to spend in excess of what the financial markets think is wise. C. Huge management style update happening, he's surprised researchers want max GPUs and no subordinates to take care of. "what's my scope going to be" is what other people in Meta ask when they get recruited. Overall a pretty significant mid course correction. Zuck is now starting to operate on a little bit of faith, he's trying to convince himself that ASI could happen, but throwing the dice before he's sure because time will not wait certainty. what a gamble.](https://image.24vids.com/tw-1945704592496594961/amplify_video_thumb/1945704464796508160/img/jjFCvhvoSpT0vkKN.jpg)
Zuck is Serious A. Researcher compensation needs to scale with GPU spend > "spending hundreds of billions of dollars on compute and ... do whatever it takes to get 50 or 70 ... top researchers" > "the amount that is being spent to to recruit the people is actually still quite small compared to the overall investment and all the compute that we're doing" B. Zuck's pitch to researchers > "the most computer per researcher" > "clean slate.. you get the opportunity to build a new lab from scratch" > "put that power into people's hands directly... with personal super intelligence" > "other labs... talk about ... developing the central super intelligence and directing it at grand problems" C. Zuck feels Meta was getting left behind and so is now going to overcommit to make sure that doesn't happen > "You know, we keep on uh like having goals for where we want to be and then the field keeps on moving faster than than we expect" > "think that we should bet and act as if [superintelligence] is going to be ready in the next 2 to 3 years" Opinion --------- A. Zuck is still not convinced that AGI/ASI is possible and will happen in the short term... but is prepared to gamble B. Repeats "hundreds of billions of dollars", he's prepared to spend whatever is required at this point. They are going to spend in excess of what the financial markets think is wise. C. Huge management style update happening, he's surprised researchers want max GPUs and no subordinates to take care of. "what's my scope going to be" is what other people in Meta ask when they get recruited. Overall a pretty significant mid course correction. Zuck is now starting to operate on a little bit of faith, he's trying to convince himself that ASI could happen, but throwing the dice before he's sure because time will not wait certainty. what a gamble.
Prakash (Ate-a-Pi)17,885 views • 10 months ago
No more content to load