Julians Amboko
@AmbokoJH • 83,033 subscribers
Host #BusinessRedefined & #CFOChat on @ntvkenya Research Fellow, Tax Research Centre @StrathU
Shorts
Videos
The government is yet again deferring the promise for PAYE bands review. National Treasury CS had said that by close of September, he would have tabled a Bill in Parliament to trigger this review (see quoted tweet). He is now saying that he has to go for the World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings (Oct 12th - 18th) & then come back. Remember he had indicated that we would have seen this even before Finance Bill 2026. If it's an Oct/Nov affair, remember Finance Bill '27 comes a lot earlier than usual, due in Jan '27 C/o Judith Cherono
Julians Amboko45,041 views • 5 days ago
Former National Treasury CS, Prof. Njuguna Ndung'u, says whereas institutions in Kenya have the capacity to do the right thing, "the current President overruns all the institutions and that is why everybody in those institutions will have to conform, for fear"
Julians Amboko412,964 views • 1 month ago
In view of the indication of protests slated for tomorrow (Aug 28th) following the upward review of the Customs Benchmark to Kes 3.2 Million (see quoted tweet), the Revenue Authority has sought to explain itself regarding this adjustment. The Commissioner Customs, Dr. Nyawanda, makes the following points: · Kes 2.5 Million has been in place for six years during which there have been significant changes in a number of variables, notably, foreign exchange, freight costs, local taxes & stays of application from a regional standpoint. Hence the need to change · The Kes 3.2 Million & the August 21st date was based on consensus between the authority & key stakeholders including umbrella bodies & it factors in all the changes that have taken place over the last six years · Stakeholders were given a one month long grace period to organise themselves around this change & that is how the August 21st effective date was arrived at · The Kes 3.2 Million is simply a benchmark & therefore there's expectation that some consolidated cargo will fall either below or above this value · Where the trader believes that the Kes 3.2 Million is not a true reflection & therefore not applicable, there will be room for verification Musings: · I wonder how this adjustment aligns with Sec122 of the East African Community Customs Management Act & more precisely the dictates of the 4th Schedule of the Act on determination of value of imported goods · One likely outcome here will be that because the Revenue Authority anticipates push back, it will persuade most taxpayers to declare & therefore unlock more visibility on customs values
Julians Amboko148,865 views • 25 days ago
The new appointed & founder CEO of the National Infrastructure Fund, James Mworia (James Mworia) afforded us a good laugh at the Africa Capital Week 2026 (Africa Capital Week) when he presented a physical copy of the Fund's statement to dispel fears that the money from partial divestitures from Kenya Pipeline & Safaricom were never credited to the account. Mworia says he is banking on the country's fast growing domestic capital pools, notably the now > Kes 3.0 trillion held by pension funds, to unlock financing for infrastructure needs. My question to him was how he will navigate the asset-liability (mis)match headache that many fund managers grapple with given the nature of infrastructure as an asset class. He makes the following points: · His idea for circumventing asset-liability (mis)match concerns is creating a sub-fund within the National Infrastructure Fund (i.e. the NIF Infrastructure Development Fund) that can then be listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange · The listing of the NIF Infrastructure Development Fund on the bourse will then address the liquidity headache because it will allow investors to come in & exist · The listed NIF Infrastructure Development Fund will also help address the ease with which investors can come into strategic national infrastructure undertakings without evoking the risk of being deemed to have made entry via the back route (i.e. because a listed vehicle is then open to all investors)
Julians Amboko41,203 views • 12 days ago
The government has back-pedalled on the revised Customs Benchmark (Kes 3.2 million) following last Friday's protests & boycott by traders. In its place, Kes 2.0 million has now been adopted as the new Customs Benchmark. The following have been agreed upon at a meeting held at State House this evening. · The Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) will reduce the benchmark for general consolidated cargo to Kes 2.0 million from the Kes 3.2 million · Existing rates for ready made garments & footwear to remain unchanged & newly negotiated rates for air cargo to remain in place · The Advance Cargo Manifest will be done away with with immediate effect to streamline clearance of consolidated cargo · KRA to develop & publish an Exclusion List of cargo that doesn’t qualify for clearance under Consolidation. The list will be informed by the value & nature of goods, specific tax rates & other customs consideration · All Cargo Consolidators will be vetted afresh & registered by KRA with the deadline for fresh registration being Oct 15th, 2026. They will submit a comprehensive list of the individual traders & importers whose goods they consolidate · The government to establish de-consolidation cargo centres in Nairobi & Mombasa to enable cargo to be assessed transparently · Kenya Railways will reduce the charge for transporting cargo from the Inland Container Depot to the de-consolidation centre from Kes 58,000 to Kes 10,000 Traders had vowed to stage protests every Friday until the matter was addressed. Musings: · Whether Kes 2.0 million, Kes 2.5 million or Kes 3.2 million, the issue remains adherence to the 4th Schedule East African Community Customs Management Act & its guidance around valuation. Will it be possible to anchor any future adjustments on the 4th Schedule? · The Advance Cargo Manifest system was rolled out on August 3rd, 2026, it has barely finished a month in application. It has been done away with · The Advance Cargo Manifest system was further transitioning Customs in Kenya into a risk based profiling system through verification of invoices, bills of lading, & export declarations upfront. It's a delicate balance here
Julians Amboko54,455 views • 19 days ago
Should the taxpayer still bear the burden of proof in instances where a tax dispute with the Revenue Authority is based in pre-populated & third party data? In my submission before the National Assembly's Finance & Planning Committee on behalf of the Tax Research Centre at Strathmore University, I argue that Finance Bill 2026's proposals seeking to anchor Incomes & Expenses Validation in law will be incomplete if they do not include a proposal for the the Revenue Authority being saddled with the burden of proof in such instances. Here's why: · Finance Bill 2026 proposes to amend Sec75 of the Tax Procedures Act to provide that the Revenue Authority may use technology to pre-populate tax returns on behalf of a person required to submit or lodge a tax return · Finance Bill 2026 further proposes that a person required to submit or lodge a tax return may rely on pre-populated return generated by the Revenue Authority to file their return · Finance Bill 2026 proposes to amend Sec112 to provide that the Cabinet Secretary of the National Treasury may make Regulations for the procedure for the submission or lodging of returns based on pre-populated tax returns generated by the Revenue Authority Here's where the problem is: · In all this, Sec56(1) which provides that "In any proceedings, the burden shall be on the taxpayer to prove that a tax decision is incorrect" remains unchanged · Sec56(1) is predicated on the fact that Kenya has been running on a self-assessment based regime & the data upon which tax disputes emerges was held by the taxpayer · With Incomes & Expenses Validation & the onset of a Dual Assessment regime in Kenya, taxpayers are now exposed not just to errors of judgement & data on their part, but also errors of technology & transmission which are out of their control · Can we really still have the burden of proof lying exclusively with the taxpayer in an environment where tax compliance has shifted from a function of record keeping to one where system integration reliability is now a key factor?
Julians Amboko312,556 views • 3 months ago
Former Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya, Dr. Patrick Njoroge, on assuming office & the collapse of three banks (Dubai, Imperial & Chase) in quick succession. He says of the three, the collapse of Chase in April 2026 inflicted the largest impact on the banking ecosystem. He says the collapse of the three was "good" in the sense that it triggered a culture change in the country's banking ecosystem. Credit: Central Bank of Kenya
Julians Amboko111,052 views • 1 month ago
Former Central Bank of Kenya Governor, Prof. Njuguna Ndung'u, reflects on his fallout with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over Kenya's monetary policy framework. He makes the interesting case of the twin occurrence of high growth (>7.0%) & high inflation (13.0% - 14.0%) while the Fund's prescription was monetary tightening amidst static velocity of money. "I told the IMF that I am not a spanner boy" Credit: Central Bank of Kenya (Central Bank of Kenya)
Julians Amboko176,160 views • 2 months ago
The signing of the Sovereign Wealth Fund Bill 2026 into law. See quoted tweet for details.
Julians Amboko149,492 views • 2 months ago
On the Dangote led Refinery in East Africa: · Location will be determined following research being undertaken by Dangote. Mombasa, Lamu or Tanga are lead contenders · Project expected to cost anything between US$16.0 billion & US$20.0 billion · Kenya's newly set up National Infrastructure Fund will co-invest in the refinery, deployment not disclosed · The National Infrastructure Fund currently has US$1.0 billion (Kenya Pipeline proceeds). In another two or so months, ~ US$2.0 billion is expected (Safaricom Plc partial divestiture proceeds) · GOK believes that with ~ US$3.0 billion worth of seed capital, it can build the fund to ~ US$30.0 billion (10:1) crowd in factor · National Infrastructure Fund to invest 20.0% (~ US$300.0 Million) in the planned new Nairobi Airport
Julians Amboko183,150 views • 4 months ago
As part of its manifesto ahead of 2027, Safina Party is proposing doing away with Value Added Tax (VAT) & replacing it with a 5.0% Sales Tax (see quoted tweet). Today, through my colleague Nomadic Panda 🐼, I asked the Deputy Party Leader about this proposal with my core argument being: · Kenya had Sales Tax in place until 1990 & then repealed it as part of its mid-80s/early '90s tax modernisation programme · The key reason for the overhaul of Sales Tax starting Jan 1st, 1990 was the challenge in the input-output credit mechanism The Deputy Party Leader argues: · The input-output mechanism could have been a challenge in the early '90s but not in 2026. We now have enough technology to address this challenge · Their modelling suggests that a Sales Tax at 5.0% could yield ~ Kes 500.0 billion annually. For context, domestic VAT yielded Kes 355.26 billion in 2025/26 I still see a challenge with this proposal: · Does Sales Tax live up to the tax base expansion mission in an economy that is hard pressed to go past ~ 6.0M active taxpayers? · VAT creates an automatic cross-audit paper trail through the buyer-supplier chain, will a single stage Sales Tax accomplish the same? · I am not persuaded by the input-output mechanism argument by the Deputy Party Leader. A single-stage sales tax lacks an integrated credit mechanism, the technological advancement notwithstanding · Also, knowing our challenges with tax enforcement via tech (recurrent eTIMS & iTax outage being a case in point), I am not holding my breath about what could possibly be done around this
Julians Amboko61,072 views • 1 month ago
Last week I highlighted Safina Party's proposed switch from VAT to Sales Tax (see quoted tweet). This week, a few proposals from People's Party as revealed last evening: · Bump up the Inua Jamii Cash Transfer Programme to Kes 3,000 effective Jan 1st, 2028 & enhance it to Kes 4,000 effective Jan 1st, 2031 · GOK further divesting from Kengen by unwinding its stake from 70.0% to 35.0%. Also, accelerating Open Access in the power sector · Banking sector recapitalisation & a slow down in buyout of Kenyan banks by continental/international players Musings: · There's a case for rethinking Inua Jamii. Maybe an inflation indexed disbursement as opposed to a flat bump up would be a better route? Of course that has fiscal implications · The elephant in the room in the power sector is the Take or Pay Power Purchase Agreements. Notable progress has made on the Open Access front via the Energy Act 2019 & the Energy (Electricity Market, Bulk Supply and Open Access) Regulations, 2024 · GOK has repeatedly hinted at further unwinding from Kengen without executing it. The argument has been tabled that given that it supplies the bulk of the country's baseload power, a divestiture (potentially to a minority stake) translates to ceding national security interests · Banking is already on a recapitalisation path, including the latest changes that did away with the annual hurdles & extended the runway to the Kes 10.0 billion mark. I am keen to see the proposals around stemming the tide of foreign players buying out Kenyan banks
Julians Amboko41,715 views • 1 month ago
Key take outs from the President William Ruto's address this morning regarding the transport sector strike: · He has ruled out the push for repeal of all taxes & levies attached to the price of petroleum products as a relief measure to Kenyans in the wake of runaway prices · He argues that going that route will adversely impact revenue collection, expand the fiscal deficit & undermine service delivery. · He says that the reduction of VAT on petroleum product from 16.0% to 8.0% has translated into Kes 14.4 billion worth of revenue forgone by the Exchequer · He says that a total of Kes 12.45 billion was spent in pump price stabilisation during the April - May pump price cycle · The President says that in the June 15th - July 14th pump price cycle, Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority has been directed to slash to price of Diesel by Kes 10.0/litre · Transport sector stakeholders say that the strike now moves from "suspended" to "called off"
Julians Amboko124,922 views • 4 months ago
This is the first time the Central Bank of Kenya, the Governor no less, has spoken openly about the contentious & much debated Sec44 of the Banking Act. · Dr. Kamau Thugge says that as far as the Central Bank is concerned, there is no need for banks seeking approval from the CS National Treasury for interest rate adjustments · The stance taken by the Governor, & the Central Bank by extension, goes against the Supreme Court judgement on the matter Stanbic Bank Kenya Limited vs Santowels Limited which affirmed Sec44 of the Banking Act which dictates that no institution can increase its rate of banking or other charges without the National Treasury CS's approval · It is also important to note that the Governor emphasises that monetary policy adjustment should be transmitted IMMEDIATELY by banks. Four months ago, the question of immediate transmission was the cause of a storm between banks & their regulator (see quoted tweet)
Julians Amboko68,541 views • 2 months ago
Former Central Bank of Kenya, Dr. Andrew Mullei, on being hired by former President Mwai Kibaki & first African Governor, Duncan Ndegwa, & later on becoming Head of Research at the apex bank at under Phillip Ndegwa. He recounts International Monetary Fund's (IMF) concerns around hard currency inflows into Kenya from coffee exports & their potential for triggering inflationary pressures in the economy. Credit: Central Bank of Kenya
Julians Amboko52,943 views • 1 month ago
The Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya says proceeds from the state's partial divestiture from Safaricom Plc are "just about to" hit the state coffers & should vault the fx reserve position to ~ US$16.0 billion (7.0 months of import cover). As expected, the Governor says the latest upswing we have seen in fx reserves (+ US$954.0 million over the last fortnight) is attributable to World Bank DPO VII & Kenya Pipeline divestiture proceeds. He says the US$855.0 million acquisition of a 66.0% stake in NCBA Group by South Africa's Nedbank should provide further fx buffer.
Julians Amboko61,512 views • 2 months ago