Julians Amboko
@AmbokoJH • 82,380 subscribers
Host #BusinessRedefined & #CFOChat on @ntvkenya Research Fellow, Tax Research Centre @StrathU
Shorts
Videos
Former National Treasury CS, Prof. Njuguna Ndung'u, says whereas institutions in Kenya have the capacity to do the right thing, "the current President overruns all the institutions and that is why everybody in those institutions will have to conform, for fear"
Julians Amboko406,970 views • 5 days ago
Former Central Bank of Kenya Governor, Prof. Njuguna Ndung'u, reflects on his fallout with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over Kenya's monetary policy framework. He makes the interesting case of the twin occurrence of high growth (>7.0%) & high inflation (13.0% - 14.0%) while the Fund's prescription was monetary tightening amidst static velocity of money. "I told the IMF that I am not a spanner boy" Credit: Central Bank of Kenya (Central Bank of Kenya)
Julians Amboko175,113 views • 20 days ago
Former Central Bank of Kenya, Dr. Andrew Mullei, on being hired by former President Mwai Kibaki & first African Governor, Duncan Ndegwa, & later on becoming Head of Research at the apex bank at under Phillip Ndegwa. He recounts International Monetary Fund's (IMF) concerns around hard currency inflows into Kenya from coffee exports & their potential for triggering inflationary pressures in the economy. Credit: Central Bank of Kenya
Julians Amboko52,357 views • 8 days ago
The signing of the Sovereign Wealth Fund Bill 2026 into law. See quoted tweet for details.
Julians Amboko149,163 views • 27 days ago
Should the taxpayer still bear the burden of proof in instances where a tax dispute with the Revenue Authority is based in pre-populated & third party data? In my submission before the National Assembly's Finance & Planning Committee on behalf of the Tax Research Centre at Strathmore University, I argue that Finance Bill 2026's proposals seeking to anchor Incomes & Expenses Validation in law will be incomplete if they do not include a proposal for the the Revenue Authority being saddled with the burden of proof in such instances. Here's why: · Finance Bill 2026 proposes to amend Sec75 of the Tax Procedures Act to provide that the Revenue Authority may use technology to pre-populate tax returns on behalf of a person required to submit or lodge a tax return · Finance Bill 2026 further proposes that a person required to submit or lodge a tax return may rely on pre-populated return generated by the Revenue Authority to file their return · Finance Bill 2026 proposes to amend Sec112 to provide that the Cabinet Secretary of the National Treasury may make Regulations for the procedure for the submission or lodging of returns based on pre-populated tax returns generated by the Revenue Authority Here's where the problem is: · In all this, Sec56(1) which provides that "In any proceedings, the burden shall be on the taxpayer to prove that a tax decision is incorrect" remains unchanged · Sec56(1) is predicated on the fact that Kenya has been running on a self-assessment based regime & the data upon which tax disputes emerges was held by the taxpayer · With Incomes & Expenses Validation & the onset of a Dual Assessment regime in Kenya, taxpayers are now exposed not just to errors of judgement & data on their part, but also errors of technology & transmission which are out of their control · Can we really still have the burden of proof lying exclusively with the taxpayer in an environment where tax compliance has shifted from a function of record keeping to one where system integration reliability is now a key factor?
Julians Amboko301,886 views • 2 months ago
This is the first time the Central Bank of Kenya, the Governor no less, has spoken openly about the contentious & much debated Sec44 of the Banking Act. · Dr. Kamau Thugge says that as far as the Central Bank is concerned, there is no need for banks seeking approval from the CS National Treasury for interest rate adjustments · The stance taken by the Governor, & the Central Bank by extension, goes against the Supreme Court judgement on the matter Stanbic Bank Kenya Limited vs Santowels Limited which affirmed Sec44 of the Banking Act which dictates that no institution can increase its rate of banking or other charges without the National Treasury CS's approval · It is also important to note that the Governor emphasises that monetary policy adjustment should be transmitted IMMEDIATELY by banks. Four months ago, the question of immediate transmission was the cause of a storm between banks & their regulator (see quoted tweet)
Julians Amboko52,354 views • 21 days ago
Prof. Njuguna Ndung'u on the rise of microfinance & agency banking in Kenya. He says microfinance regulations were borrowed significantly from what had just been adopted in Nigeria, agency banking regulations were borrowed from Brazil. Credit: Central Bank of Kenya
Julians Amboko48,410 views • 20 days ago
On the Dangote led Refinery in East Africa: · Location will be determined following research being undertaken by Dangote. Mombasa, Lamu or Tanga are lead contenders · Project expected to cost anything between US$16.0 billion & US$20.0 billion · Kenya's newly set up National Infrastructure Fund will co-invest in the refinery, deployment not disclosed · The National Infrastructure Fund currently has US$1.0 billion (Kenya Pipeline proceeds). In another two or so months, ~ US$2.0 billion is expected (Safaricom Plc partial divestiture proceeds) · GOK believes that with ~ US$3.0 billion worth of seed capital, it can build the fund to ~ US$30.0 billion (10:1) crowd in factor · National Infrastructure Fund to invest 20.0% (~ US$300.0 Million) in the planned new Nairobi Airport
Julians Amboko182,726 views • 2 months ago
The MPesa story as per Prof. Njuguna Ndung'u. Credit: Central Bank of Kenya
Julians Amboko42,012 views • 20 days ago
Key take outs from the President William Ruto's address this morning regarding the transport sector strike: · He has ruled out the push for repeal of all taxes & levies attached to the price of petroleum products as a relief measure to Kenyans in the wake of runaway prices · He argues that going that route will adversely impact revenue collection, expand the fiscal deficit & undermine service delivery. · He says that the reduction of VAT on petroleum product from 16.0% to 8.0% has translated into Kes 14.4 billion worth of revenue forgone by the Exchequer · He says that a total of Kes 12.45 billion was spent in pump price stabilisation during the April - May pump price cycle · The President says that in the June 15th - July 14th pump price cycle, Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority has been directed to slash to price of Diesel by Kes 10.0/litre · Transport sector stakeholders say that the strike now moves from "suspended" to "called off"
Julians Amboko124,810 views • 2 months ago
BAT Kenya (BATKenya) retained its interim dividend at Kes 10.0/share for HY2026 as the manufacturer posted a 3.1% y/y growth in profits to Kes 3.1 billion. When I sat down with the Finance Director, Catherine Chepkong'a, I told her that despite the performance, I was concerned about the margins erosion given the 1.7% y/y slide in operating margins as costs outpaced the uplift on the topline. My question was two-fold: · What specific initiatives are in place to address this margin erosion, particularly as input costs continue to rise · How much of this cost increase stems from structural inflation (input/logistics) versus strategic investment in multi-category marketing Catherine makes a few points around this: · Zambia's 66.0% increase in excise inflicted a price shock that softened the manufacturer's revenues · Downtrading in the Kenyan market as consumer wallets come under stress was another pressure point on the revenues · Cost outpacing revenue growth was for good reason with the key factor being compliance cost associated with the new graphic health warnings prescribed by the market regulator · Investment in non-combustibles also plays a key role in the cost pressures showing up in the HY2026 earnings · Finally, inflationary pressures, with the headline figure rising to the 6.0% horizon also played a role here Full conversation goes live on Monday 27th July, 2026
Julians Amboko20,052 views • 11 days ago
UPDATE: Finance Bill 2026 sails through the National Assembly by way of a division vote at the third reading. The House voted by electronic means per Standing Order No.70. Outcome of the voting: · Yes: 122 · No: 40 · None abstained Finance Bill 2026 now awaits Presidential assent.
Julians Amboko68,764 views • 1 month ago
Is your hard earned money working for you? Or is just lying idle & getting eroded as costs rise? Come with me as we explore the capital markets & the vast array of opportunities that exist for us unlock value for our hard earned money. Over the coming weeks, we will be unpacking various asset classes including stocks, government securities (Treasury Bills & Bonds), derivatives, money market funds, special funds & more to ensure we are all equipped with the right information. Also, let me know what you would like us to place the spotlight on. Stay alert, invest smart!
Julians Amboko12,843 views • 8 days ago
UPDATE: The Revenue Authority is lining up a number of changes to buttress Finance Act 2026's introduction of phased out Income Tax Return filing (see quoted tweet). The authority says it will: · Abandon the excel file based filing in favour of a purely web based filing system. So taxpayers won't be downloading · Expand the scope of the AI-powered virtual assistant, Shuru, for more complex filing · Upgrade iTax ahead of April 30th, 2027 which will be the debut phase of staggered filing of income tax returns PS: · Worth noting the authority says there shall be no Incomes & Expenses Validation for the 2026 year of income, apparently it was only for 2025 · Question, how does this align with the Finance Act 2026 amendment to Sec75 of the Tax Procedures Act? · If the law provides that the taxpayer has the right to confirm or amend a pre-populated return, doesn't it follow that there shall be a validation exercise accompanying this in the case where an amendment is done?
Julians Amboko33,852 views • 26 days ago
I am pretty sure the President meant 13.0% when he spoke about "reducing the VAT rate to 8.0% for the next 3 months" here. Sec6(1) of the VAT Act cannot even allow a reduction to 8.0% in the first place, the cap is a 25.0% variation by the CS & 8.0% would be way off that window.
Julians Amboko98,330 views • 3 months ago
National Treasury CS, John Mbadi, says that the team that was working on simulations on the impact of PAYE bands adjustments has concluded its work & now what remains is for a decision to be taken. On May 11th (see quoted tweet) he told us initial estimates showed that PAYE bands adjustments (zero rating for < Kes 30,000 & lower rate for Kes 30,000 - Kes 50,000) would translate into a Kes 35.0 billion worth of revenue forgone by the Exchequer.
Julians Amboko64,005 views • 2 months ago