Amit Segal
@AmitSegal • 84,472 subscribers
Chief political analyst, @N12News. Author, “It’s Noon in Israel” newsletter and “A Call at 4 AM” | https://t.co/52ELID0QxN
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I'm gonna say something a bit different from what that source told the New York Times. He said Fordo was damaged Severely but wasn't destroyed. So I'll tell you what Israel's current assessment is. First off all Natanz was completely wiped out. For Fordo and Isfahan, we're waiting on more confirmations. Not because we think something didn't work, but because it naturally takes longer for those deep underground sites. The big question now is whether Iran's nuke program just went back a few years, or if it's been totally erased. This relates to where the enriched uranium is. That uranium, enriched to 60%, is now incredibly hard for Iran to boost to the 90% needed for a bomb. Israel thinks most, if not all, of the enriched uranium was at Natanz or Isfahan. It wasn't moved, so it was there during the attack. We're now waiting For The BDA Of the Enriched uranium just like we were waiting on Muhammad Sinwar. I know he's under a tunnel and unreachable, but we'll likely know soon if he was also destroyed. This is huge news that could mean the official end of Iran's nuclear program.
Amit Segal2,394,394 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten
Gaza flotilla activists amuse themselves on an Israeli Navy ship on their way to Israel.
Amit Segal207,287 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
This is the outline currently under discussion between the United States and Iran. I am sharing this with caution, as it hasn’t been agreed upon yet, but based on recent developments, these are the points they have been discussing: A 15-year suspension of uranium enrichment. The United States originally demanded 20 years, while the Iranians wanted much less; they eventually settled on 15. The plan includes converting uranium into fuel, which changes its physical state and makes it harder to re-enrich. While not a simple process, this means the uranium won't necessarily leave Iran, which is a major concern for Israel. Full inspection of nuclear sites and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz are, of course, a given. The deal would also include ending the war, the withdrawal of American forces from the Gulf, and the lifting of economic sanctions. It must be said that, aside from the uranium, the lifting of sanctions is what worries Israel the most. As you recall, the strategic goal of the war was to create the conditions for the regime’s downfall. The regime was in danger of collapsing due to an economic situation that deteriorated primarily because of those sanctions; if they are lifted, the regime is strengthened. Therefore, it seems to me that the perception in Israel remains that the status quo is preferable—a state of "no war, no peace" where U.S. military forces remain on standby in the Persian Gulf. But as we have learned, this does not depend solely on Israel's desires, to put it mildly.
Amit Segal257,101 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
Qatar is attempting, on its own initiative, to negotiate an end to the war with Iran. Yes, according to those Western sources, if Qatar fails—and at the moment it appears it will—to end the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, then it wants—and there’s no nicer way to put it—to bribe Iran so that it won’t attack Qatar itself. The proposal included the same money Dana spoke of, but this time through a local channel: six billion dollars—allegedly held by Qatar as funds belonging to the Revolutionary Guards—in exchange for Iran halting its attacks on Qatar. Incidentally, this is an event that causes immense embarrassment both to the Qataris and to Hamas, which is based in Qatar and supported by both the Qataris and the Iranians. Let’s just mention the response of a Qatari diplomat: “Qatar has not offered any economic or other deal to Iran in exchange for stopping the attacks. Such claims are complete fabrications and represent an attempt to drive a wedge between Qatar and the United States. These efforts,” says the Qatari diplomat, “will not succeed.”
Amit Segal252,528 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten
Are the participants in this flotilla criminals and enemies of Israel? Yes. Are some of them associated with ISIS? Yes. Should we shed a single tear for them? Absolutely not. Is the international community hypocritical? Of course it is. And were the embassies that summoned Israel’s ambassadors today the truest friends to begin with? No. But despite all of that, what Itamar Ben-Gvir did is a complete scandal—for three distinct reasons. First, it brazenly ignores established government policy. A decision was already made to deport the participants. Whether you agree with that directive or not, it is the policy. When a minister goes rogue and takes over an issue like this, it immediately raises the suspicion of a cheap political ploy. Second, it’s like Israel's notoriously malfunctioning weapon from the Independence War, the Davidka: all noise, no payload. In practice, nothing happens. It is exactly like the push for the death penalty for terrorists—a law that will likely never execute a single person, but guarantees Israel will absorb maximum diplomatic damage and terrible headlines. Third, it actively sabotages tremendous, ongoing diplomatic efforts. Today, for example, Israel secured a significant achievement when the Czech Republic agreed to veto EU sanctions in Hungary’s place. Why volunteer to make our diplomatic corps' job harder? Just as the situation was naturally defusing, Ben-Gvir dragged the world’s glare right back here. To the international observer, no one sees that the detainees aren't innocent. They just see a vulgar politician—who already has an international arrest warrant looming over him in The Hague—yelling at captive detainees, drawing grim parallels to the mistreatment of illegal immigrants at the US-Mexico border. I wish I could say it was an unfortunate mistake. But it was entirely by design.
Amit Segal53,619 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen
My initial thoughts on the deal. There’s no phase two. That's clear to everyone, right? Phase two might happen someday, but it’s unrelated to what’s just been signed. The deal signed now is a hostage release deal. It doesn’t imply anything about the future. Theoretically, fantasies could come true: Emiratis and allies dismantling tunnels, an international body formed, Tony Blair governing Gaza. All this could happen in theory, but it’s not part of the current tactical negotiations. What we have now is a hostage deal, and a ceasefire while talks continue in good faith. There’s the question of course: who decides if talks are happening in good faith? Under Trump, Israel has previously said “Talks aren’t genuine or productive,” and resumed fighting. But this time, I don’t think we’ll see IDF tanks rushing back into Gaza, like what happened when the last two ceasefires ended. The big question is: Are we moving towards the Lebanese model Israel mentioned? In other words, the IDF stays beyond the international border and strikes targets from the air when it detects buildups or threats. Attempts to harm Israel are obvious. But what we’re talking about is buildup efforts, like digging more tunnels or building more arms-producing lathes. This is what Israel is aiming for. The reasonable assumption in Jerusalem is that President Trump will approve it. That’s one point. The IDF will withdraw to the 53% line. It was 57% initially, then dropped to 53% when the hostages will be freed. The talks afterwards are based on the principle of Israeli withdrawal in return for demilitarization and dismantling. Of course, we all assume that Hamas won’t disarm willingly, and the Emiratis and other international forces won’t achieve this quickly either. Now, regarding the hostage issue. I’ll admit than when I hear people say that Israel is “making peace with enemies,” I smell Oslo in the air, and the implications it carries. This isn’t peace, and these are bitter enemies, still on their knees.
Amit Segal583,119 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten
Protests against the rule of the ayatollahs at universities in Iran.
Amit Segal244,796 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten
This is what the lives of the children of Kiryat Shmona look like after yet another siren.
Amit Segal39,753 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen
What is Netanyahu expected to say to the president? The main problem with the ballistic-missile story is that the Iranians have caught on to the daylight—the gap—between Israel and the United States. What happened here is that Donald Trump gave his word and then broke it. "We will not allow Iran to have nuclear weapons." But he didn’t talk about conventional weapons—the ballistic missiles that threaten Israel. They threaten Israel to such an extent that Netanyahu himself, in a video announcing to the Israeli people that he was launching Operation Nation of Lions, said that two existential threats had developed. The nuclear threat—you’ve known about for years—but also the threat of thousands of ballistic missiles. What has happened since then? The Iranians are not acting at all on the nuclear front, as far as we know. They have not even extracted the enriched material buried underground. But they are very much intensifying their experiments with ballistic missiles. Either because they think it is threatening, or because, as Netanyahu says, it is an existential threat to Israel. We also have a race between the number of their missiles and the number of our missiles—and let’s say that both countries need to recover on this issue. Let’s ask the question now, and here I don’t have an answer. When Netanyahu goes to Washington to talk to Trump about this, is he talking to him about a combined attack—which seems a bit far-fetched to me, because the Americans really have no intention of getting involved in a conventional weapons conflict anywhere in the world; otherwise they would never get out of it—or is he content to give Israel permission to attack on its own, with the U.S. providing a defensive umbrella? One. Two, it should also be said, in this context, that there is a big debate in the Israeli cabinet and at the top about whether it is possible to launch an attack every six months. You cannot—unlike the nuclear project—you cannot eliminate the Iranian ballistic threat. Is it sustainable to come every six months, eight months, and launch another round, which includes them firing at us, all the flights leaving Israel, and all the implications for the economy? There is no decision in Israel. There is no decision in the U.S. that's what they will discuss.
Amit Segal273,898 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten
There’s a new claim that “essentially, all that happened was Trump got tired, took control and forced it on Netanyahu, and this is basically the same deal that could have been reached a year earlier,” with the disturbing implication, that’s horrible to say, that IDF soldiers died in vain for a cause that had already been achieved. So, let’s revisit the plans that were laid out by both the current and former American administrations to see if they match up. For example, the Biden plan from June 1, 2024, which was met with considerable enthusiasm, and was even later acknowledged as Netanyahu’s plan. I want to highlight the difference. In the first phase, the IDF should have already pulled back to roughly its current position, and then it was just about releasing humanitarian hostages. As if not all of them are “humanitarian.” Then it transitioned to discussing the release of living hostages. In this phase, the IDF would withdraw from all of Gaza, until the last centimetre, while all the dead hostages remain in Gaza. It’s as different as day and night. Here, everyone is returning, including the dead, and the IDF is still in half of Gaza. This isn’t just about some desire to maintain an occupation or garrison force, but rather to ensure that Hamas disarms — something that didn’t happen in the Biden proposal. So now let’s move on to the Witkoff plan, much closer to us, much better for Israel, but still different. There was talk of releasing half of the dead hostages, but then a temporary ceasefire for two months of negotiations to end the war, and then the IDF would withdraw from more places than it is now, and there would be a guarantee that the war would not be renewed. Once again, we see that there was no connection between the IDF remaining on the ground and the promise that Hamas would disarm, especially while some of the hostages are still there. The greatness of this outline is this issue. I also want to say something general about the matter of responsibility. As ridiculous as it was on October 7 and afterwards to hear from Netanyahu’s supporters that the one who is to blame is the IDF chief of staff, the Shin Bet chief, the attorney general and the Military Advocate General, and that Netanyahu has no part in it — it’s as ridiculous as it is that now they’re saying, “Thank you Trump and thank you Nitzan Alon, and thank you to all of them and to the Qatari prime minister, and Netanyahu and Ron Dermer have nothing to do with it at all.” Indeed, Netanyahu had a very large part in the failure of October 7, and he also has a very large part together with Dermer in this deal. By the way, how does that connect to what Kushner said tonight in Egypt? He said that both the prime minister and Dermer made very big compromises and took risks to see the end of the war. I would like to make a suggestion. Once upon a time, when there was only one channel and people didn’t like the commentators, they said, “Watch the game without the commentary.” I say, let’s watch Trump and Netanyahu’s move without the commentary, because there are a lot of conversations, and this and that, and slander, and sometimes even quotes, but in practice there has never been a president and a prime minister who acted like this, and the results are evident from Iran, through the Golan Heights, through the embassy and now Gaza.
Amit Segal298,292 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten
What would happen if, mid-performance at Madison Square Garden, a pop star began asking God to forgive them and the audience for their sins? I think it’s fair to say that a few people in the crowd would be confused, to say the least. In Israel, however, Judaism is infused in the national culture — even for those who wouldn’t identify as religious in the traditional sense of the word. Few moments have captured this cultural intertwining as beautifully as a recent Osher Cohen concert. Cohen, who does not wear a yarmulke, was singing one of his breakup songs — par for the course for a pop star. And then, without warning, he broke into Adon HaSelichot (Master of Forgiveness) a liturgical poem sung in the lead up to the Jewish New Year, which praises God’s many aspects while asking for forgiveness for our sins. And how did the audience, which was by no means a religious crowd, respond? They sang along with Cohen as if it was one of his hit songs. And in that moment, it wasn’t just a concert — it was a reminder of what makes Israel unique: a place where tradition and modern life blend so seamlessly that even a centuries-old prayer can turn into a pop song loved by the religious and secular alike. 📸: Musicshows-c2d/YouTube
Amit Segal297,774 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten
Where was Mossad during the assassination attempt in Doha? Israel’s announcement of the strike was highly unusual. In the prime minister’s, defense minister’s, and IDF's announcements, the Mossad isn't mentioned by name. Rather, they said that the IDF and Shin Bet carried out an assassination, making it sound like it was some safe house in Nablus or a tunnel in Jabaliya, and actually a Shin Bet operation. This is almost nonsensical. It’s Mossad that handles Hamas affairs abroad. It certainly wasn’t the Shin Bet that gathered intel before the strike. Surely Mossad needed to be involved. So what’s going on? I’ll present you with two versions. One says the Mossad opposed this move. In principle, Mossad strongly supports Israeli cooperation with Qatar, and has done so since long before current Mossad chief David Barnea took over. Barnea even manages the Qatar case in Mossad, and didn’t want to be involved in the strikes. The second version says Jerusalem deliberately excluded Mossad. Of course, it was Mossad agents who would have been there and provided intel, but Jerusalem didn’t want to further damage the already shaky status of the last respected Israeli institution. It might not even be accepted by the Qataris after tonight. Either way, this was an Israeli operation. By the way, the IDF Chief of Staff and others had reservations about the timing. They preferred to wait until the American ultimatum expired this weekend. But as you saw, the planes bombing Doha were clearly Israeli, and not from any other army.
Amit Segal249,422 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten
First of all, an attack on Saturday morning is nothing new to us. This time we are on the right side. We must ask the question that many Israelis are asking themselves, especially those who are now turning on their televisions and saying, “Wait a minute, but we were told that Operation Rising Lion ended with the defeat of the Iranian nuclear project.” Donald Trump said it was completely destroyed. So how can Trump and Netanyahu say today that the goal is to destroy the Iranian nuclear project? Two things need to be explained. The first is that while the U.S. said the Iranian nuclear project was completely destroyed, Israel did not use that rhetoric. It said that we had set them back years, which was indeed true. So why now? Well, three dramatic things happened here. One, in my opinion, the relatively minor one, is that the Iranians tried to move their weapons systems, including their nuclear infrastructure underground. They have now distanced themselves from nuclear and are focusing on the missile system with which it was supposed to reach Israel. They were trying to take the entire system underground, and not just underground, but to a place that even American bombs cannot reach. And that is the point of no return. The second thing, of course, is the ballistic missile system posed a threat. The third was the opportunity created by Operation Rising Lion. And that opportunity is the uprising in Iran, which, had it not been for the massacre of 30,000 Iranians, would probably have led to the fall of the regime. Israel and the U.S. together decided—by the way, they decided weeks ago. As usual, there was a whole system of tension, and Trump was hesitating, but basically the decision was made a few weeks ago. They decided to give that extra push, and it’s quite a push. I just want to explain for the sake of proportion. Operation Rising Lion had 1,000 strikes; the U.S. war in Iraq in 2003 had 116,000. So when you add that huge elephant (the U.S.), that huge mammoth, the consequences are dramatic. Not for nothing, Netanyahu said today, Operation Rising Lion will pale in comparison to what is happening. Yes, they said. Anyone who listens to the eight minutes and 20 seconds in which Trump speaks in an angry and serious tone—really, the operation—it doesn’t seem to me something electoral in the U.S. And the anger is enormous. It really seems to me as if Trump chose it. Netanyahu understands that Trump’s goal is to bring down this regime, and he says things there that are accurate and, in my opinion, historic. He says for 47 years, this regime and its people have been shouting “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.” They finance terrorism, they launch terrorism, they are responsible for the deaths of hundreds of Americans and thousands of Israelis, including on Oct. 7. What began on Saturday morning Oct. 7 may now end with this operation that began on Saturday morning.
Amit Segal98,731 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten
If Taylor Swift was stuck in a traffic jam on an LA highway, would she get out of her car and start singing? I think we all know the answer. But welcome to Israel, where many celebrities, far from being untouchable, navigate the same wars, trauma, and traffic jams as the rest of us. A few days ago, Yuval Raphael, who represented Israel at Eurovision 2025 and finished in second place, experienced what no Israeli can escape: a late night traffic jam on the highway. Her response? Get out of her car and sing her Eurovision song, New Day Will Rise. Because in Israel, even everyday moments can be a little magical.
Amit Segal247,958 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten
