Amit Segal
@AmitSegal • 91,630 subscribers
Chief political analyst, @N12News. Author, “It’s Noon in Israel” newsletter and “A Call at 4 AM” | https://t.co/52ELID0QxN
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Former hostage Eliya Cohen and massacre survivor Ziv Abud got married this evening.
Amit Segal256,130 views • 20 days ago
Unofficial Hamas-affiliated channels report an attempted abduction of a senior Hamas figure in western Gaza City by opposing militia groups. After clashes broke out, Israeli aircraft reportedly intervened in the incident. Gazan sources claim Israeli shotgun shells were found at the scene of the clashes. It is possible that this was Israeli special forces or Israel-allied militia.
Amit Segal76,145 views • 8 days ago
Last week, Tal Amselem took her family to the Sea of Galilee. Before wading in, she slipped off her three rings and asked her young daughter to carry them up the beach to her mother, sitting a few meters away, for safekeeping. They were nearly home when Tal asked for the rings back. Her mother handed her only two. The engagement ring was gone. “I thought I was going to faint,” she said. Tal is the widow of Avichai Amselem, a reservist killed in battle for Israeli territory on October 9, having rushed out to defend the country following the October 7 attacks. In tears, she called Eitan, a metal detectorist, who told her to stop crying and promised the ring would be back in her hands within the hour. She also called her uncles, who turned around and drove back to the lake. By the time they arrived, the whole beach was on its feet. Eitan put out a call, and soon around 15 detectorists had gathered. Not long after, a young man named Amir Shor, who had come with his mother and his detector, found the ring in the water. It had apparently slipped from her daughter’s hand moments after Tal handed it over. Another volunteer drove all the way from Ma’alot, over an hour away, a reservist due back on duty who’d had tickets to a show that day; his partner told him to skip the performance and go help. “Since Avichai was killed, my girls and I have been held from every direction,” Tal said. “I know that for any help I need, however small, I only have to ask and everyone comes running. What a rare people.” (Credit ינון מגל Yinon Magal)
Amit Segal100,696 views • 14 days ago
I'm gonna say something a bit different from what that source told the New York Times. He said Fordo was damaged Severely but wasn't destroyed. So I'll tell you what Israel's current assessment is. First off all Natanz was completely wiped out. For Fordo and Isfahan, we're waiting on more confirmations. Not because we think something didn't work, but because it naturally takes longer for those deep underground sites. The big question now is whether Iran's nuke program just went back a few years, or if it's been totally erased. This relates to where the enriched uranium is. That uranium, enriched to 60%, is now incredibly hard for Iran to boost to the 90% needed for a bomb. Israel thinks most, if not all, of the enriched uranium was at Natanz or Isfahan. It wasn't moved, so it was there during the attack. We're now waiting For The BDA Of the Enriched uranium just like we were waiting on Muhammad Sinwar. I know he's under a tunnel and unreachable, but we'll likely know soon if he was also destroyed. This is huge news that could mean the official end of Iran's nuclear program.
Amit Segal2,394,394 views • 1 year ago
The Likud boycott video is probably the most talked-about thing this week. The video opens on a visibly worried mother discovering that her young son, Yuval, is being socially ostracized and bullied by his classmates at school. She reads cruel messages sent to her son by other children, only to turn and—presumably to her regret—see that the “Anyone but Bibi” signs she was preparing are similarly cruel. But surprisingly, Netanyahu is shaping up to be one of the least boycotted figures in the coming election. In fact, the Likud under his leadership sits only in fifth place in this week’s poll. About half the public, 48 percent, want to boycott the Arab parties—including 35 percent of opposition voters as a whole and 37 percent of Eisenkot’s voters. The Haredi parties come next, at 31 percent, including nine percent of the current coalition’s own voters. Golan, Smotrich, and Ben Gvir share the next spot at 29 percent, and only after them, at just 19 percent, come Likud and Netanyahu. There’s an interesting phenomenon here, tied to the makeup of the last coalition. In the past, under the banner of “Just Not Bibi,” the opposition was willing to hold its nose and cooperate with the Haredim, or with the settler right. I won’t forget how shocked I was when, in 2015, leader of Meretz Zehava Galon told me that to bring Netanyahu down she’d agree to sit even with Avigdor Lieberman—back then, a fascist idol in the temple. Since then Bennett has become prime minister, and Lieberman is a darling of the camp. But the last term, which dealt with matters of substance (judicial reform, dramatic expansion of settlement in the West Bank, the Haredi exemption), turned Netanyahu’s own partners into the ones the opposition wants to be rid of first. Have we opened the door here to a relatively secular, relatively egalitarian unity government after the election? And one last note to the six percent of coalition voters who want to boycott Netanyahu: you may not have noticed, but you represent the first instance in history of someone boycotting themselves.
Amit Segal21,250 views • 6 days ago
My initial thoughts on the deal. There’s no phase two. That's clear to everyone, right? Phase two might happen someday, but it’s unrelated to what’s just been signed. The deal signed now is a hostage release deal. It doesn’t imply anything about the future. Theoretically, fantasies could come true: Emiratis and allies dismantling tunnels, an international body formed, Tony Blair governing Gaza. All this could happen in theory, but it’s not part of the current tactical negotiations. What we have now is a hostage deal, and a ceasefire while talks continue in good faith. There’s the question of course: who decides if talks are happening in good faith? Under Trump, Israel has previously said “Talks aren’t genuine or productive,” and resumed fighting. But this time, I don’t think we’ll see IDF tanks rushing back into Gaza, like what happened when the last two ceasefires ended. The big question is: Are we moving towards the Lebanese model Israel mentioned? In other words, the IDF stays beyond the international border and strikes targets from the air when it detects buildups or threats. Attempts to harm Israel are obvious. But what we’re talking about is buildup efforts, like digging more tunnels or building more arms-producing lathes. This is what Israel is aiming for. The reasonable assumption in Jerusalem is that President Trump will approve it. That’s one point. The IDF will withdraw to the 53% line. It was 57% initially, then dropped to 53% when the hostages will be freed. The talks afterwards are based on the principle of Israeli withdrawal in return for demilitarization and dismantling. Of course, we all assume that Hamas won’t disarm willingly, and the Emiratis and other international forces won’t achieve this quickly either. Now, regarding the hostage issue. I’ll admit than when I hear people say that Israel is “making peace with enemies,” I smell Oslo in the air, and the implications it carries. This isn’t peace, and these are bitter enemies, still on their knees.
Amit Segal583,119 views • 11 months ago
This is the outline currently under discussion between the United States and Iran. I am sharing this with caution, as it hasn’t been agreed upon yet, but based on recent developments, these are the points they have been discussing: A 15-year suspension of uranium enrichment. The United States originally demanded 20 years, while the Iranians wanted much less; they eventually settled on 15. The plan includes converting uranium into fuel, which changes its physical state and makes it harder to re-enrich. While not a simple process, this means the uranium won't necessarily leave Iran, which is a major concern for Israel. Full inspection of nuclear sites and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz are, of course, a given. The deal would also include ending the war, the withdrawal of American forces from the Gulf, and the lifting of economic sanctions. It must be said that, aside from the uranium, the lifting of sanctions is what worries Israel the most. As you recall, the strategic goal of the war was to create the conditions for the regime’s downfall. The regime was in danger of collapsing due to an economic situation that deteriorated primarily because of those sanctions; if they are lifted, the regime is strengthened. Therefore, it seems to me that the perception in Israel remains that the status quo is preferable—a state of "no war, no peace" where U.S. military forces remain on standby in the Persian Gulf. But as we have learned, this does not depend solely on Israel's desires, to put it mildly.
Amit Segal258,101 views • 4 months ago
Gaza flotilla activists amuse themselves on an Israeli Navy ship on their way to Israel.
Amit Segal208,006 views • 4 months ago
Qatar is attempting, on its own initiative, to negotiate an end to the war with Iran. Yes, according to those Western sources, if Qatar fails—and at the moment it appears it will—to end the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, then it wants—and there’s no nicer way to put it—to bribe Iran so that it won’t attack Qatar itself. The proposal included the same money Dana spoke of, but this time through a local channel: six billion dollars—allegedly held by Qatar as funds belonging to the Revolutionary Guards—in exchange for Iran halting its attacks on Qatar. Incidentally, this is an event that causes immense embarrassment both to the Qataris and to Hamas, which is based in Qatar and supported by both the Qataris and the Iranians. Let’s just mention the response of a Qatari diplomat: “Qatar has not offered any economic or other deal to Iran in exchange for stopping the attacks. Such claims are complete fabrications and represent an attempt to drive a wedge between Qatar and the United States. These efforts,” says the Qatari diplomat, “will not succeed.”
Amit Segal252,621 views • 5 months ago
Protests against the rule of the ayatollahs at universities in Iran.
Amit Segal244,796 views • 6 months ago
What is Netanyahu expected to say to the president? The main problem with the ballistic-missile story is that the Iranians have caught on to the daylight—the gap—between Israel and the United States. What happened here is that Donald Trump gave his word and then broke it. "We will not allow Iran to have nuclear weapons." But he didn’t talk about conventional weapons—the ballistic missiles that threaten Israel. They threaten Israel to such an extent that Netanyahu himself, in a video announcing to the Israeli people that he was launching Operation Nation of Lions, said that two existential threats had developed. The nuclear threat—you’ve known about for years—but also the threat of thousands of ballistic missiles. What has happened since then? The Iranians are not acting at all on the nuclear front, as far as we know. They have not even extracted the enriched material buried underground. But they are very much intensifying their experiments with ballistic missiles. Either because they think it is threatening, or because, as Netanyahu says, it is an existential threat to Israel. We also have a race between the number of their missiles and the number of our missiles—and let’s say that both countries need to recover on this issue. Let’s ask the question now, and here I don’t have an answer. When Netanyahu goes to Washington to talk to Trump about this, is he talking to him about a combined attack—which seems a bit far-fetched to me, because the Americans really have no intention of getting involved in a conventional weapons conflict anywhere in the world; otherwise they would never get out of it—or is he content to give Israel permission to attack on its own, with the U.S. providing a defensive umbrella? One. Two, it should also be said, in this context, that there is a big debate in the Israeli cabinet and at the top about whether it is possible to launch an attack every six months. You cannot—unlike the nuclear project—you cannot eliminate the Iranian ballistic threat. Is it sustainable to come every six months, eight months, and launch another round, which includes them firing at us, all the flights leaving Israel, and all the implications for the economy? There is no decision in Israel. There is no decision in the U.S. that's what they will discuss.
Amit Segal273,898 views • 8 months ago
Last night, freed hostage Eliya Cohen married fellow survivor Ziv Abud, his partner of a decade, in front of 1,000 guests. After 10 years together, and the 505 days he spent in Hamas captivity, they are finally together. The two had been at the Nova festival on October 7. When the shooting began they fled to the infamous “death shelter,” where Aner Shapira heroically threw back seven grenades one after another to save those inside, before he was killed by the eighth. Ziv, hiding under piles of bodies, survived. Eliya was taken to Gaza. Only after the kidnapping did Ziv learn he’d planned to propose: “His mother told me he’d bought a ring—and told everyone except me. He wanted to surprise me.” Eliya was eventually released during the ceasefire in February 2025. As the couple entered, the recorded voices of two friends murdered at Nova—Amit Ben Avida, Ziv’s nephew, and Yonatan Chai Azoulai—accompanied them. Amit began by naming his own absence: “If you’re hearing this voice now, then I’m probably not standing beside you the way we imagined.” Then: “I wish you routine. Yes, routine. Ordinary days, without drama ... Even after everything you went through, don’t stop believing you deserve good.” He closed: “That you’ll build a life without apologizing. And don’t be afraid of joy. Love you, Amit.” Then Yonatan: “Life isn’t measured by what you achieved, but by who stays when it’s hard and you have nothing left.” To Eliya directly: “Look after Ziv, and look after yourself too. You’re allowed to be happy, to build a future, even when we’re not part of it.” The couple asked Aner Shapira’s father, Moshe, to write their ketubah, the Jewish marriage contract. “Aner was part of the moment that changed our lives, and today his father will write our ketubah and take part in the moment we choose life and love,” they said. “The wedding that’s arriving now feels like a small victory of life.” Eliya had vowed there would be no wedding until every living hostage was home. Last night, the promise was kept.
Amit Segal24,686 views • 19 days ago
There’s a new claim that “essentially, all that happened was Trump got tired, took control and forced it on Netanyahu, and this is basically the same deal that could have been reached a year earlier,” with the disturbing implication, that’s horrible to say, that IDF soldiers died in vain for a cause that had already been achieved. So, let’s revisit the plans that were laid out by both the current and former American administrations to see if they match up. For example, the Biden plan from June 1, 2024, which was met with considerable enthusiasm, and was even later acknowledged as Netanyahu’s plan. I want to highlight the difference. In the first phase, the IDF should have already pulled back to roughly its current position, and then it was just about releasing humanitarian hostages. As if not all of them are “humanitarian.” Then it transitioned to discussing the release of living hostages. In this phase, the IDF would withdraw from all of Gaza, until the last centimetre, while all the dead hostages remain in Gaza. It’s as different as day and night. Here, everyone is returning, including the dead, and the IDF is still in half of Gaza. This isn’t just about some desire to maintain an occupation or garrison force, but rather to ensure that Hamas disarms — something that didn’t happen in the Biden proposal. So now let’s move on to the Witkoff plan, much closer to us, much better for Israel, but still different. There was talk of releasing half of the dead hostages, but then a temporary ceasefire for two months of negotiations to end the war, and then the IDF would withdraw from more places than it is now, and there would be a guarantee that the war would not be renewed. Once again, we see that there was no connection between the IDF remaining on the ground and the promise that Hamas would disarm, especially while some of the hostages are still there. The greatness of this outline is this issue. I also want to say something general about the matter of responsibility. As ridiculous as it was on October 7 and afterwards to hear from Netanyahu’s supporters that the one who is to blame is the IDF chief of staff, the Shin Bet chief, the attorney general and the Military Advocate General, and that Netanyahu has no part in it — it’s as ridiculous as it is that now they’re saying, “Thank you Trump and thank you Nitzan Alon, and thank you to all of them and to the Qatari prime minister, and Netanyahu and Ron Dermer have nothing to do with it at all.” Indeed, Netanyahu had a very large part in the failure of October 7, and he also has a very large part together with Dermer in this deal. By the way, how does that connect to what Kushner said tonight in Egypt? He said that both the prime minister and Dermer made very big compromises and took risks to see the end of the war. I would like to make a suggestion. Once upon a time, when there was only one channel and people didn’t like the commentators, they said, “Watch the game without the commentary.” I say, let’s watch Trump and Netanyahu’s move without the commentary, because there are a lot of conversations, and this and that, and slander, and sometimes even quotes, but in practice there has never been a president and a prime minister who acted like this, and the results are evident from Iran, through the Golan Heights, through the embassy and now Gaza.
Amit Segal298,292 views • 11 months ago
What would happen if, mid-performance at Madison Square Garden, a pop star began asking God to forgive them and the audience for their sins? I think it’s fair to say that a few people in the crowd would be confused, to say the least. In Israel, however, Judaism is infused in the national culture — even for those who wouldn’t identify as religious in the traditional sense of the word. Few moments have captured this cultural intertwining as beautifully as a recent Osher Cohen concert. Cohen, who does not wear a yarmulke, was singing one of his breakup songs — par for the course for a pop star. And then, without warning, he broke into Adon HaSelichot (Master of Forgiveness) a liturgical poem sung in the lead up to the Jewish New Year, which praises God’s many aspects while asking for forgiveness for our sins. And how did the audience, which was by no means a religious crowd, respond? They sang along with Cohen as if it was one of his hit songs. And in that moment, it wasn’t just a concert — it was a reminder of what makes Israel unique: a place where tradition and modern life blend so seamlessly that even a centuries-old prayer can turn into a pop song loved by the religious and secular alike. 📸: Musicshows-c2d/YouTube
Amit Segal298,180 views • 11 months ago