Basha باشا
@BashaReport • 21,644 subscribers
Basha Report Risk Advisory 🇺🇸 #Libya #Iraq #Syria #Iran #Yemen #Lebanon #Sudan #Gaza #Somalia #OSINT #Maritime #VEO | https://t.co/xH40lfgGo1
Shorts
![This video was recorded about 30 minutes ago on Al Fan [Art] Street in Abha. It shows normal activity, with no visible signs of disturbance. We are not seeing any open source evidence that a Houthi missile struck a structure at Abha International Airport. Most of the explosion videos circulating from Abha right now are old footage from the Yemen conflict between 2015 and 2022. We are not tracking any verified new videos showing explosions in Abha, so be careful before assuming those clips are recent.](https://image.24vids.com/tw-2076742543945965842/amplify_video_thumb/2076742418968236032/img/5mD1MSARh4ovMzHF.jpg)
Videos
I just finished a live interview on Al Jazeera English, where we discussed the latest developments in Yemen following the strike on Sana’a International Airport and the growing tensions between the Houthis, Internationally Recognized Government of Yemen, Saudi Arabia-led coalition in Yemen, and Iran. The anchor noted that this scenario closely aligned with the forecasts I shared with clients on 03 July 2026 and published publicly in recent days. While I assessed an attack on the airport as the least likely among several possible scenarios, I also emphasized that Yemen remains highly unpredictable, which is why our forecasts focus on cautious probabilities rather than certainties. During the interview, I explained that despite today’s developments, I do not believe we have crossed the point of no return toward a full-scale war. In my view, the Saudi-led coalition’s decision to allow the Mahan Air flight to land in Hodeidah was an important signal that regional backchannel diplomacy remains active and that key actors are still trying to prevent a broader conflict. I also noted that the next move now rests with the Houthis. My assessment is that they are likely to respond with drone and missile attacks against Saudi Arabia. Limited attacks would likely lead to a measured response. However, if they expand their campaign to target Saudi oil and energy infrastructure, especially aramco, the risk of a much broader military response would increase significantly. We also discussed the Houthis’ growing focus on Saudi Arabia, their deteriorating economic conditions at home, the possibility of renewed ground operations, and the ongoing diplomatic efforts by Oman, Qatar, and the @OSE_Yemen to contain the crisis. My assessment remains that we are likely to see a calculated, tit-for-tat escalation rather than an immediate return to full-scale war. That said, the situation remains highly fluid, and the coming days will be critical in determining whether diplomacy can stay ahead of military escalation.
Basha باشا335,326 views • 1 month ago
The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, فرماندهی نیروی دریایی سپاه, released two videos today accompanied by increasingly confrontational messaging directed at the United States. The first l appears to show the U.S. Navy U.S. Marines USS Iwo Jima USS Iwo Jima, LHD-7, an American amphibious assault ship. Based on publicly available imagery, the footage may have been recorded near the U.S. Gulf Coast around Texas several days ago, although that has not been independently verified. If accurate, it is unclear whether the IRGC is attempting to signal a capability to monitor U.S. naval assets beyond the Persian Gulf or is simply using the imagery as part of a broader information campaign. The accompanying message stated: “The movements and military assets of the terrorist U.S. military are under the surveillance of the naval forces of the Islamic Republic. The Americans are drawing closer by the moment to the zero hour for operations against U.S. Central Command naval forces in the region’s waters. Wait for it…” In a second video, the IRGC Navy shared footage purporting to show a precision drone strike against a tanker that it claimed had violated regulations governing the Strait of Hormuz. The accompanying statement read: “Footage showing the precise strike by an IRGC Navy attack drone on a tanker accused of violating regulations in the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC Navy announced that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the terrorist U.S. military ends its hostile actions in the region.”
Basha باشا246,453 views • 1 month ago
Bookmark this! This is bad news. Tehran Oil Refining Company’s Tehran Refinery was seen in videos showing massive smoke plumes rising from burning fuel tanks after reported Israeli airstrikes. The facility is a critical part of Iran’s energy infrastructure. If these videos are true and not AI generated or taken from another country or another time, the targeting of refineries and fuel storage facilities in Iran tonight, by the Israel Defense Forces Israeli Air Force, could point to two possible scenarios. The first is that Tel Aviv may have received signals that the war currently backed by the United States could wind down within about a week. If that is the case, Israel may be moving quickly to strike targets that could weaken Iran’s main sources of revenue. The second possibility is an attempt to provoke Iran into responding by targeting the oil sector in the Gulf states to prolong the war. If that happens, the situation could escalate sharply and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may decide to keep the gloves off and respond more forcefully. For now, the region may be entering a more dangerous phase. We hope our family, friends, and colleagues in the Gulf remain safe.
Basha باشا868,887 views • 5 months ago
Houthis Are Making a Push to Capture Bab al Mandab Strait Houthi military activity is building along Yemen’s southern Red Sea front, with movements stretching from Hudaydah and western Ta’izz toward Mocha and the approaches to the Bab al Mandab Strait. المقاومة الوطنية reported that Houthi forces sent additional troops and military vehicles toward the Maqbanah and Al-Kadhah fronts in western Ta’izz, including deployments to high ground around Al-Saeedah. الساحل الغربي | The West Coast also reported strikes against Houthi positions and commanders in Al-Barh. According to its account, strikes targeted the command of the Houthi 14th Samad Brigade and the headquarters of the 155th Infantry Brigade. It claimed more than 27 Houthi personnel were killed and 19 wounded over three days, with several military vehicles disabled. Four personnel were reportedly killed in the strike on the 155th Infantry Brigade, while its commander was wounded. These casualty figures remain claims from the National Resistance. Farther north, fighting has intensified around Hudaydah. The National Resistance said Houthi forces launched one-way attack drones toward areas south of Al-Khawkhah, while National Resistance artillery targeted what it described as hostile Houthi movements along the Hudaydah front. The activity comes alongside significant movements of Houthi foot soldiers from Dhamar and Ibb toward Red Sea districts in Hudaydah and Ta’izz. The deployments, reinforcement of western Ta’izz positions, drone attacks, and missile activity point to broader Houthi shaping operations along the western coastal front and toward Bab al Mandab. Earlier, two ballistic missiles were reportedly launched from northeastern Al Hasha District in Al Dhale Governorate toward the Al Hariqah area near Bab al Mandab. Other accounts said the missiles landed in uninhabited areas around Dhubab and Bab al Mandab. Al Hariqah is located in the Bani al Hakam subdistrict of Dhubab District near Bab al Mandab. Fewer than 10,000 people live in this Red Sea coastal district, with fishing providing a livelihood for much of the local population. The escalation is also producing casualties among government-aligned forces. The National Resistance held a funeral in Mocha for Abdullah Abdulrazzaq, who it said was killed in the fighting. He was buried at the Guardians of the Republic cemetery, where the National Resistance renewed its pledge to continue what it describes as the battle to restore the Yemeni state. Meanwhile, طارق محمد صالح, vice president of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council and the principal commander of government-aligned forces on the western coast, visited wounded resistance fighters and injured crew members of the commercial vessel Tihama, previously targeted by the Houthis. He also visited the “Martyrs’ Paradise” cemetery and met with local residents.
Basha باشا38,464 views • 10 days ago
I can now confirm that Saudi Arabia وزارة الدفاع has carried out three airstrikes targeting UAE-backed المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي العربي (STC) forces in Nuhoub base, Ghayl bin Yameen, Hadramawt, Eastern Yemen, marking an unprecedented development that pushes the situation into uncharted territory. No casualties were reported, and no equipment was targeted, indicating the strikes were intended as a strong warning to vacate the base or face further action. The critical question now is what follows: 1) Will Abu Dhabi pressure the STC to scale back and withdraw? 2) Or will the STC advance toward Al-‘Abr and the Al-Wadi’ah border crossing with Saudi Arabia? 3) Alternatively, is there still room for a diplomatic and peaceful resolution to contain the escalation and prevent further violence?
Basha باشا587,597 views • 8 months ago
Saudi-backed Yemeni قوات درع الوطن and Emergency Forces have received additional MRAPs and other supplies. Iranian-backed Houthis see these movements as preparation for a ground war. UAE-backed STC forces believe the reinforcements are aimed at them. The equipment entered through the Saudi–Yemeni Al-Wadiah border crossing, and locals filmed its arrival in Shabwah governorate.
Basha باشا305,352 views • 4 months ago
Additional videos circulating on Oromo and Ethiopian social media platforms appear to show that the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) has established an armed training camp in the no-man’s-land between Houthi-controlled Sa’dah in northwest Yemen and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. One of the fighters in the footage is seen carrying what appears to be a Saudi-issued G3A3 rifle.
Basha باشا515,612 views • 9 months ago
يمكنني الآن تأكيد أن المملكة العربية السعودية وزارة الدفاع نفذت ثلاث غارات جوية استهدفت قوات المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي المدعومة من الإمارات المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي في قاعدة نُحب، غيل بن يمين، حضرموت، شرق اليمن، في تطور غير مسبوق ينقل الوضع إلى مرحلة حساسة. ولم تُسجَّل أي خسائر بشرية، كما لم يتم استهداف أي معدات عسكرية، ما يشير إلى أن الغارات جاءت على شكل رسالة تحذيرية قوية لإخلاء المعسكر أو مواجهة تصعيد لاحق. والسؤال الآن: ماذا بعد؟ ١) هل ستقوم أبوظبي بالضغط على المجلس الانتقالي للتراجع والانسحاب؟ ٢) أم أن المجلس الانتقالي سيتجه للتقدم نحو منفذ العبر ومنفذ الوديعة الحدودي مع السعودية؟ ٣) أم أن هناك ما يزال مجالًا للتوصل إلى حل دبلوماسي وسلمي يحدّ من التصعيد ويمنع اندلاع موجة جديدة من العنف؟
Basha باشا415,044 views • 8 months ago
Yemen's real-life Spider-Man has died. Known as "Al-Qa'Qa'," he became famous for scaling the sheer cliffs around Damt's volcanic hot springs in Al-Dhale' Governorate, performing daring feats high above the water and writing names in white chalk across the rock face. His Facebook page had more than 250,000 followers who watched his adventures. Today, he reportedly slipped and fell into the deep hot waters below. Local residents and civil defense teams have so far been unable to recover his body. The water is deep and divers are needed, but the area lacks the specialized rescue capabilities required for such an operation. His Facebook page: The site: A tragic end for one of Yemen's most recognizable local daredevils.
Basha باشا127,343 views • 2 months ago
UAE-funded activities are shutting down on the Yemeni island of Socotra. Circulated videos shows the dismantling of a site that was intended to host the UAE’s annual Sheikh Zayed Heritage Festival on the island. There are also reports that Emirati-linked business activities, particularly in the fisheries sector, as well as UAE-based travel agencies operating in Socotra, are closing down. These developments follow a decision by Yemen’s Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government to halt all direct maritime commercial shipping and airline traffic from the UAE to the island. To the best of my knowledge, there are currently no UAE military forces stationed on Socotra. The only foreign military presence on the island is a Saudi military task force operating alongside local forces. These local units have historically been aligned with the Southern Transitional Council المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي العربي, but like other southern forces across South Yemen, they are now pledging loyalty to the Saudi-backed Yemeni government.
Basha باشا250,817 views • 7 months ago
The moment an Iranian Shahed-136 drone, with its distinctive delta wing design, struck the fuel depot at Salalah Port in Oman. Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Masoud Pezeshkian told Haitham bin Tariq, the Sultan of Oman, that the incident at Port of Salalah would be reviewed.
Basha باشا104,564 views • 5 months ago
Anti-government and anti-Saudi chants by المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي العربي عيدروس الزُبيدي - Aidaros Alzubidi supporters in Aden in southwestern Yemen signal defiance, will this unrest escalate into riots and violence, and can they sustain this momentum or if it is a one-off outburst. Governing has never been easy, and the coming days will test both the STC’s ability to mobilize and the Saudi-backed authorities’ capacity to contain tensions without escalation or security crackdowns.
Basha باشا122,630 views • 7 months ago
Riyadh continues its maximum pressure campaign against the UAE-backed STC: Saudi’s Major General Dr. Mohammed Obeid bin Julaighm (Al-Qahtani), Chairman of the Special Committee on Yemen speaking to elders and representatives of the Hadrami community said: “And for the protection, stability, and safety of civilians. On this day, we would also like to reaffirm the Kingdom’s ongoing position calling for the withdrawal of all المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي forces from Hadramawt and Al-Mahra and their return to their camps and bases, with the National Shield Forces (NSF) قوات درع الوطن assuming responsibility for the necessary security and protection.”
Basha باشا115,775 views • 8 months ago
Video shows a Yemeni mercenary fighting alongside Russian forces. The fighter is reportedly from Radfan, a mountainous region in southwestern Yemen. In the footage, he demonstrates how supplies are prepared and delivered to frontline troops. Large empty water bottles are packed with sweets, cigarettes, and canned food, with each package weighing around four kilograms before being carried by drone to soldiers at the front. The video also reflects the increasing reports of Yemenis fighting with Russian forces in Ukraine, where foreign recruits and mercenaries have increasingly appeared alongside Russian troops. Read more below.
Basha باشا41,387 views • 2 months ago