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Deep Inference

@DeepInference • 15,996 subscribers

the more I learn… the more I realize how much I don’t know - Einstein. Partner of @aionanalytics

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Enough trolling. I've been trolling because there was nothing worth saying. September markets will reward patience. It's going just about how we forecasted. Strength into the start of the month, then chop. Unfortunately that strength was some weaker than expect, and some of the most concentrated we've tracked. A handful of names carried the tape while breadth quietly deteriorated underneath. Indices are holding. The average stock isn't. 🧵

Enough trolling. I've been trolling because there was nothing worth saying. September markets will reward patience. It's going just about how we forecasted. Strength into the start of the month, then chop. Unfortunately that strength was some weaker than expect, and some of the most concentrated we've tracked. A handful of names carried the tape while breadth quietly deteriorated underneath. Indices are holding. The average stock isn't. 🧵

32,032 Aufrufe

Everyone thinks Semis are going to limit down Monday … Hear me out. Don’t you think a slowdown in the pace of AI development would crack the cybersecurity narrative just a little bit? Maybe a lot?

Everyone thinks Semis are going to limit down Monday … Hear me out. Don’t you think a slowdown in the pace of AI development would crack the cybersecurity narrative just a little bit? Maybe a lot?

23,923 Aufrufe

I think we both know what comes next.

I think we both know what comes next.

63,821 Aufrufe

Let's set the record straight. $SPY $QQQ I called the top in June within a day, the entire drawdown and chop through July, then called the bottom end of July into August. It's all timestamped. I don't do hindsight. I post it live. Here's what I see next. 🧵

Let's set the record straight. $SPY $QQQ I called the top in June within a day, the entire drawdown and chop through July, then called the bottom end of July into August. It's all timestamped. I don't do hindsight. I post it live. Here's what I see next. 🧵

211,456 Aufrufe

What Jane Street has planned for retail this October:

What Jane Street has planned for retail this October:

82,620 Aufrufe

Since the discount codes expire at the end of August for the Aion Analytics platform, let's do one more review of what the terminal looks like from the inside. Specifically how I used it to catch the March bottom, the June top, and the July bottom. All three posted here before the market confirmed them. Walkthrough and overview below. 🧵

Since the discount codes expire at the end of August for the Aion Analytics platform, let's do one more review of what the terminal looks like from the inside. Specifically how I used it to catch the March bottom, the June top, and the July bottom. All three posted here before the market confirmed them. Walkthrough and overview below. 🧵

106,156 Aufrufe

He does it again on $AVGO this time… first it bounced off 350 and now it tapped that first ceiling at 375. This astronaut guy really knows how to read a dealer’s hand!

He does it again on $AVGO this time… first it bounced off 350 and now it tapped that first ceiling at 375. This astronaut guy really knows how to read a dealer’s hand!

53,818 Aufrufe

Before a storm actually breaks, the signs contradict each other. The pressure drops but the sky is clear. The air goes still while the water gets restless. Animals move before there's anything to see. Nothing agrees, and yet everything is responding to the same thing. That's this market. The data is contradictory on the surface, but underneath, the readings are all reacting to the same building pressure. Most people wait for the sky to change. By then it's already raining. So let's go through the readings one at a time. Because the pressure is telling us a storm is brewing... 🧵

Before a storm actually breaks, the signs contradict each other. The pressure drops but the sky is clear. The air goes still while the water gets restless. Animals move before there's anything to see. Nothing agrees, and yet everything is responding to the same thing. That's this market. The data is contradictory on the surface, but underneath, the readings are all reacting to the same building pressure. Most people wait for the sky to change. By then it's already raining. So let's go through the readings one at a time. Because the pressure is telling us a storm is brewing... 🧵

20,566 Aufrufe

I think we are about to enter a period of INSTABILITY. Let me show you why I think July will be trickier than what most people are prepared for. 🧵 $SPY $QQQ

I think we are about to enter a period of INSTABILITY. Let me show you why I think July will be trickier than what most people are prepared for. 🧵 $SPY $QQQ

81,178 Aufrufe

We nailed the August move. So let's talk about where I think this goes next. We close August strong and carry it into early September. Then September gets choppy. Then October gets ugly. Here's why I have it in that order. 🧵

We nailed the August move. So let's talk about where I think this goes next. We close August strong and carry it into early September. Then September gets choppy. Then October gets ugly. Here's why I have it in that order. 🧵

26,454 Aufrufe

Nobody wishes for the market to crack. Not you. Not me. So I understand why the bear label keeps getting thrown at me lately. When someone points at the storm clouds, it's easier to be mad at them than at the weather. But I'm not a permabear. I don't sit here hoping the market bleeds. I sit with data until it tells me something real. And lately it keeps repeating itself. Cracks in the structure. Let me show you what I see. 🧵

Nobody wishes for the market to crack. Not you. Not me. So I understand why the bear label keeps getting thrown at me lately. When someone points at the storm clouds, it's easier to be mad at them than at the weather. But I'm not a permabear. I don't sit here hoping the market bleeds. I sit with data until it tells me something real. And lately it keeps repeating itself. Cracks in the structure. Let me show you what I see. 🧵

67,278 Aufrufe

I just heard from a top trader and insider at Jane Street that the most hated rally since last year’s most hated rally is days away from beginning. Enjoy the ride.

I just heard from a top trader and insider at Jane Street that the most hated rally since last year’s most hated rally is days away from beginning. Enjoy the ride.

59,858 Aufrufe

Quoting this because it deserves some attention. Trading is not a personality contest. It is not conviction. It is not being permanently bullish or permanently bearish and waiting to be right. It is adaptability. For the record: I am up over 200% this year. A year where retail is bleeding and most managers are probably underperforming a savings account. Not because I am smarter. Because I am fluid. I use data, I interpret it, and I act on it. When the data changes, I change. If you cannot do that, you will not survive this game. I will walk through the data in the thread below... and discuss why I believe we hit highs in early September. Then chop. Then face an October selloff... If the read changes, so will I. That is the entire point. 🧵

Quoting this because it deserves some attention. Trading is not a personality contest. It is not conviction. It is not being permanently bullish or permanently bearish and waiting to be right. It is adaptability. For the record: I am up over 200% this year. A year where retail is bleeding and most managers are probably underperforming a savings account. Not because I am smarter. Because I am fluid. I use data, I interpret it, and I act on it. When the data changes, I change. If you cannot do that, you will not survive this game. I will walk through the data in the thread below... and discuss why I believe we hit highs in early September. Then chop. Then face an October selloff... If the read changes, so will I. That is the entire point. 🧵

11,453 Aufrufe

One in thirty adults in South Korea got a margin call this month. $SPY $QQQ Most of them were in their twenties. 360,000+ accounts were closed out by their brokers. Not by choice. $38 billion, gone. Then last night the largest cloud on earth reported the best quarter it has ever had. Two facts, same week. This is the dichotomy we face. So let's take a look at where OUR markets stand through quantitative lens. 🧵

One in thirty adults in South Korea got a margin call this month. $SPY $QQQ Most of them were in their twenties. 360,000+ accounts were closed out by their brokers. Not by choice. $38 billion, gone. Then last night the largest cloud on earth reported the best quarter it has ever had. Two facts, same week. This is the dichotomy we face. So let's take a look at where OUR markets stand through quantitative lens. 🧵

17,891 Aufrufe

The greatest part about everyone turning bearish now: these are the same people that told me the top wasn’t in on June 3rd when I pointed out the risks.

The greatest part about everyone turning bearish now: these are the same people that told me the top wasn’t in on June 3rd when I pointed out the risks.

18,104 Aufrufe

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I don't post dealer positioning often. $SPY $QQQ Not because it doesn't matter. Because most of the time it can read noisy if you don't pair it with other data. But right now it looks like the greeks are showing something worth our attention. Let's take a look together. 🧵

I don't post dealer positioning often. $SPY $QQQ Not because it doesn't matter. Because most of the time it can read noisy if you don't pair it with other data. But right now it looks like the greeks are showing something worth our attention. Let's take a look together. 🧵

74,378 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

The stock market is closed until Tuesday.

The stock market is closed until Tuesday.

20,911 Aufrufe • vor 10 Tagen

In 3 days the structure of this market changes. Most traders will notice it WEEKS late. $SPY $QQQ Here's what's shifting below the surface. 🧵

In 3 days the structure of this market changes. Most traders will notice it WEEKS late. $SPY $QQQ Here's what's shifting below the surface. 🧵

92,998 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

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