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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic • 67,455 subscribers

BCA Research. Geomacro strategist. Author of Geopolitical Alpha. Podcast host of "Geopolitical Cousins." Views on Twitter are my own.

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Missed among the cacophony of the most recent US-China trade spat is Taipei's rejection of Washington's proposal that 50% of semiconductors be produced in the U.S. This is a big deal and signals that de-coupling is just not going to happen. In this short video, I explain why! I also want to use this opportunity to flag to friends and clients in Australia that I will be in Sydney (October 27-28) and Melbourne (Oct 29-30) at the end of the month! If you'd like to attend one of the events BCA will put together, please reach out to our local team or just ping me directly!

Missed among the cacophony of the most recent US-China trade spat is Taipei's rejection of Washington's proposal that 50% of semiconductors be produced in the U.S. This is a big deal and signals that de-coupling is just not going to happen. In this short video, I explain why! I also want to use this opportunity to flag to friends and clients in Australia that I will be in Sydney (October 27-28) and Melbourne (Oct 29-30) at the end of the month! If you'd like to attend one of the events BCA will put together, please reach out to our local team or just ping me directly!

89,279 次观看 • 7 个月前

TGIF in GeoMacro! Three things I am watching in the upcoming week: 1. Bond-equity correlation. It is on a knife's edge. Can equities rally even as bond yields stay elevated. This is the macro question for me right now. 2. UAE negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. 3. Oil prices with President Trump sending an "armada" to Iran. Also, the Fed on Wednesday. Just kidding. I could not care less about that one! Cheers from Wisconsin, Marko

TGIF in GeoMacro! Three things I am watching in the upcoming week: 1. Bond-equity correlation. It is on a knife's edge. Can equities rally even as bond yields stay elevated. This is the macro question for me right now. 2. UAE negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. 3. Oil prices with President Trump sending an "armada" to Iran. Also, the Fed on Wednesday. Just kidding. I could not care less about that one! Cheers from Wisconsin, Marko

13,714 次观看 • 4 个月前

Reconciliation Relocation Reckoning

Reconciliation Relocation Reckoning

22,000 次观看 • 1 年前

The market is cheering President Trump’s trade deals. Many investors don’t understand how tariffs, any tariffs, can be a positive for the economy and stocks. They are not. But the market did not correct on April 3 due to 10% or 15% tariffs. It corrected because of a left tail risk that a massive re-ordering of global trade was afoot. That risk is clearly off the table. The question of who “won” the trade deals is more nuanced. On the surface, the U.S. is clearly getting great concessions from the rest of the world. But as I report from Victoria, BC, the rest of the world is playing the long game. It is not so clear that the Machiavellian approach will help the U.S. over a longer time horizon.

The market is cheering President Trump’s trade deals. Many investors don’t understand how tariffs, any tariffs, can be a positive for the economy and stocks. They are not. But the market did not correct on April 3 due to 10% or 15% tariffs. It corrected because of a left tail risk that a massive re-ordering of global trade was afoot. That risk is clearly off the table. The question of who “won” the trade deals is more nuanced. On the surface, the U.S. is clearly getting great concessions from the rest of the world. But as I report from Victoria, BC, the rest of the world is playing the long game. It is not so clear that the Machiavellian approach will help the U.S. over a longer time horizon.

17,971 次观看 • 10 个月前

The fog of (trade) war has slowly wafted over from the beach... Here are my thoughts on both the imminent tariffs and the much scarier ones yet to come. Also, a "zag" to talk about Tobin Tax and why the White House may take it seriously in the future.

The fog of (trade) war has slowly wafted over from the beach... Here are my thoughts on both the imminent tariffs and the much scarier ones yet to come. Also, a "zag" to talk about Tobin Tax and why the White House may take it seriously in the future.

24,172 次观看 • 1 年前

Just some thoughts on the Middle East imbroglio of June. Shot somewhere in the Bay Area wilderness...

Just some thoughts on the Middle East imbroglio of June. Shot somewhere in the Bay Area wilderness...

18,485 次观看 • 11 个月前

How to make sense of what is going on in the markets? I think that the best framework still remains the one focused on constraints. A warning for investors anticipating a recession: in a policy-induced recession, policy and not hard data will drive the markets. Good luck everyone! (I reference the 7 Steps of Maximum Pressure... diagram below in my reply)

How to make sense of what is going on in the markets? I think that the best framework still remains the one focused on constraints. A warning for investors anticipating a recession: in a policy-induced recession, policy and not hard data will drive the markets. Good luck everyone! (I reference the 7 Steps of Maximum Pressure... diagram below in my reply)

17,728 次观看 • 1 年前

Just like the salmon can swim up the Kokanee creek, so too stocks can melt up against the grain of a slowing economy! Some thoughts from a hike in the West Kootenays!

Just like the salmon can swim up the Kokanee creek, so too stocks can melt up against the grain of a slowing economy! Some thoughts from a hike in the West Kootenays!

14,921 次观看 • 10 个月前

My quick take from World Economic Forum! Big thank you to Bloomberg for hosting me in their pavilion. It was a lot of fun and definitely the best place to experience at the event!

My quick take from World Economic Forum! Big thank you to Bloomberg for hosting me in their pavilion. It was a lot of fun and definitely the best place to experience at the event!

18,220 次观看 • 1 年前

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