Reconciliation Relocation Reckoning

There are ways to moderate the costs of those deep OTM put hedges by either structuring them as wide butterflies, or even wide 1:2 ratios. In the case of the ratio, the extra short put is set at a level you'd be comfortable being assigned for a long-term position.

Why is China trade principally linked to threat of National Security ? Why is this accepted as a starting point ? Where is the threat exactly ?

Chance of report copy for us poor academics?

Do you see reckoning more likely at China impact extremes - Eg China doing well to isolate US on trade so decides on non-military reckoning or if too much internal pain China goes military reckoning route? Or is reckoning possible no matter how good or bad impact is for China

Is that a fixed 100% total or is it subject to tariff increases?

Financial repression in the US... 95% probability.

Beer in HK?

I mean you can’t do anything with this “insight” take out insurance, great. On what?

3rd scenario premise is that China “gives up on any deal with US”. When has China ever expressed any desire at all to do a deal with the US?

I don't understand how rerouting Chinese goods to another country makes the supply chain safe.

Recession... 99.99% probability.