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Contrarian Investment Research: Energy (Oil & Gas)

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Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours. Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours. Source: MarineTraffic

3,086,810 views

Strait of Hormuz the last 24 hours. Unreal. Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz the last 24 hours. Unreal. Source: MarineTraffic

1,692,868 views

Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours. Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours. Source: MarineTraffic

1,205,488 views

Strait of Hormuz over the last 48 hours: tanker attacks continue Iran's demands for opening the Strait of Hormuz are a nonstarter for the US. As I covered over the weekend, Iran has now added Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq along with Lebanon for a complete ceasefire as a condition. In addition, it also wants compensation for the war damages and the MOU violation. On the shipping front, Oman lane transits continue, but here's the catch. ADNOC (UAE) ships are being attacked with 4 of them getting hit last week and another possible attack today. ADNOC's rescue boat was sent out, but no other confirmation on the attack has been announced so far. What is interesting is this. Iraqi crude is getting through the Oman lane. Prosperity tankers carrying Iraqi crude have not been hit. Why? Simple. In the past, Iran has exported some of its oil through Iraq to evade sanctions. This is one of the main reasons why we are not seeing all the tankers get hit through the Oman lane. But it seems clear from the recent escalation patterns that whatever secret deal Iran had with UAE is all but over. Video from MarineTraffic.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 48 hours: tanker attacks continue Iran's demands for opening the Strait of Hormuz are a nonstarter for the US. As I covered over the weekend, Iran has now added Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq along with Lebanon for a complete ceasefire as a condition. In addition, it also wants compensation for the war damages and the MOU violation. On the shipping front, Oman lane transits continue, but here's the catch. ADNOC (UAE) ships are being attacked with 4 of them getting hit last week and another possible attack today. ADNOC's rescue boat was sent out, but no other confirmation on the attack has been announced so far. What is interesting is this. Iraqi crude is getting through the Oman lane. Prosperity tankers carrying Iraqi crude have not been hit. Why? Simple. In the past, Iran has exported some of its oil through Iraq to evade sanctions. This is one of the main reasons why we are not seeing all the tankers get hit through the Oman lane. But it seems clear from the recent escalation patterns that whatever secret deal Iran had with UAE is all but over. Video from MarineTraffic.

130,136 views

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: TACO for the 5th time? Trump just canceled his own strike again because the Iranians are begging for a deal. Well, if you look at the video from MarineTraffic, the only visible traffic is through the Iran lane. At the end of the video, you will see the LNG tanker, Gaslog Shanghai, show up as it was reported that the tanker was abandoned. Rotterdam Energy made it through. Lucia A, a Suezmax, made it through at the end of the video using the Oman lane. There are transits happening, but they're not enough to change the oil math. In my view, unless the US is willing to give Iran complete control over the Strait of Hormuz, there's no deal. That's been the case since the MOU, and it's still the case today. Now that the Bab al-Mandeb card has been played, I think the next step in escalation is Fujairah. I've been saying that's the last card the Iranians could play, and they've been waiting. No one knows when, but it appears inevitable if they want to force even more concessions from the US.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: TACO for the 5th time? Trump just canceled his own strike again because the Iranians are begging for a deal. Well, if you look at the video from MarineTraffic, the only visible traffic is through the Iran lane. At the end of the video, you will see the LNG tanker, Gaslog Shanghai, show up as it was reported that the tanker was abandoned. Rotterdam Energy made it through. Lucia A, a Suezmax, made it through at the end of the video using the Oman lane. There are transits happening, but they're not enough to change the oil math. In my view, unless the US is willing to give Iran complete control over the Strait of Hormuz, there's no deal. That's been the case since the MOU, and it's still the case today. Now that the Bab al-Mandeb card has been played, I think the next step in escalation is Fujairah. I've been saying that's the last card the Iranians could play, and they've been waiting. No one knows when, but it appears inevitable if they want to force even more concessions from the US.

146,666 views

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: Where is the fucking deal? Uh oh, do you smell that? Yeah, that's the smell of bullshit. We went from Tuesday's "opening within hours" to Axios's Wednesday announcement to nothing. Meanwhile, Iranian news appears to point out a deal that looks nothing like a deal. It looks like a straight rejection of everything the US wants. And even as the talks continue, the US continues to escort a convoy of tankers through the Oman lane. This time, Iranian forces fired missiles at the ships. Nissos Keros turned off its AIS right before it transited the Oman lane and remains off. No UKMTO report, nothing. I guess we won't know until satellite images show up. So will there be a deal? Well, with each passing day without an announcement, the likelihood of a deal diminishes. Trump's own 48-hour timeline has gone and passed. It's now or never. Video from MarineTraffic.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: Where is the fucking deal? Uh oh, do you smell that? Yeah, that's the smell of bullshit. We went from Tuesday's "opening within hours" to Axios's Wednesday announcement to nothing. Meanwhile, Iranian news appears to point out a deal that looks nothing like a deal. It looks like a straight rejection of everything the US wants. And even as the talks continue, the US continues to escort a convoy of tankers through the Oman lane. This time, Iranian forces fired missiles at the ships. Nissos Keros turned off its AIS right before it transited the Oman lane and remains off. No UKMTO report, nothing. I guess we won't know until satellite images show up. So will there be a deal? Well, with each passing day without an announcement, the likelihood of a deal diminishes. Trump's own 48-hour timeline has gone and passed. It's now or never. Video from MarineTraffic.

109,377 views

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: tanker attacks are back In my post yesterday on the Strait of Hormuz, I noted that two tankers, Rotterdam Energy and Gaslog Shanghai were going to use the Oman lane to transit. Neither tanker has updated its AIS signal since yesterday. Meanwhile, UKMTO reported an attack that took place yesterday and IRGC published a video showing a vessel on fire. In the video from MarineTraffic, you will see at the beginning that a bulk carrier called, Minoan Glory, attempted to use the Oman lane before turning around. Whatever the US did to temporarily stall the enforcement mechanism from IRGC is gone. Enforcement is back in the Oman lane, which means flow will return to a trickle. The US has an incredibly tough decision to make now: continue the unsuccessful strikes, escalate more, or capitulate completely. My logic is that more escalation is inevitable because the Strait of Hormuz issue is all-or-nothing. There's no way around but through.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: tanker attacks are back In my post yesterday on the Strait of Hormuz, I noted that two tankers, Rotterdam Energy and Gaslog Shanghai were going to use the Oman lane to transit. Neither tanker has updated its AIS signal since yesterday. Meanwhile, UKMTO reported an attack that took place yesterday and IRGC published a video showing a vessel on fire. In the video from MarineTraffic, you will see at the beginning that a bulk carrier called, Minoan Glory, attempted to use the Oman lane before turning around. Whatever the US did to temporarily stall the enforcement mechanism from IRGC is gone. Enforcement is back in the Oman lane, which means flow will return to a trickle. The US has an incredibly tough decision to make now: continue the unsuccessful strikes, escalate more, or capitulate completely. My logic is that more escalation is inevitable because the Strait of Hormuz issue is all-or-nothing. There's no way around but through.

121,307 views

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Source: MarineTraffic

631,422 views

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: Oman lane is active? Over the last 7 days, Kpler tracked 18 tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz, 5 related to Iran. Average volume of 1.861 million b/d. In the video from MarineTraffic, you can see that at the beginning, there was a bulk carrier called Supra Baron that tried going through the Oman lane and then turning around. A few vessels took the Iran lane shortly after. But more interestingly, as I'm writing this post, there are two tankers that are about to go through the Oman lane: Rotterdam Energy, a VLCC, and Gaslog Shanghai, an LNG tanker. Rotterdam Energy turned off its AIS about an hour ago, so it's in the process of transiting now. Is the Oman lane active again? Or will IRGC enforce control again? If IRGC makes a move, then all the bombing the US did was create temporary enforcement vacuums in place for tankers to transit. This is clearly unsustainable in the long-run. I guess we will find out soon enough.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: Oman lane is active? Over the last 7 days, Kpler tracked 18 tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz, 5 related to Iran. Average volume of 1.861 million b/d. In the video from MarineTraffic, you can see that at the beginning, there was a bulk carrier called Supra Baron that tried going through the Oman lane and then turning around. A few vessels took the Iran lane shortly after. But more interestingly, as I'm writing this post, there are two tankers that are about to go through the Oman lane: Rotterdam Energy, a VLCC, and Gaslog Shanghai, an LNG tanker. Rotterdam Energy turned off its AIS about an hour ago, so it's in the process of transiting now. Is the Oman lane active again? Or will IRGC enforce control again? If IRGC makes a move, then all the bombing the US did was create temporary enforcement vacuums in place for tankers to transit. This is clearly unsustainable in the long-run. I guess we will find out soon enough.

110,491 views

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. US successfully escorted one group of tankers in through the Oman lane. All of them had their AIS off, but there was one Indian cargo ship that had it on when it went through. The list can be seen below. Following two days of US strikes, the US is back to escorting ships in. My guess is that it will try to escort a group out tonight, and Iran can either respond and create more escalation going into the weekend or it can lose leverage. The Oman lane will be heavily contested in the coming days, which leaves either side with no choice but to escalate. I have included the video from MarineTraffic.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. US successfully escorted one group of tankers in through the Oman lane. All of them had their AIS off, but there was one Indian cargo ship that had it on when it went through. The list can be seen below. Following two days of US strikes, the US is back to escorting ships in. My guess is that it will try to escort a group out tonight, and Iran can either respond and create more escalation going into the weekend or it can lose leverage. The Oman lane will be heavily contested in the coming days, which leaves either side with no choice but to escalate. I have included the video from MarineTraffic.

167,054 views

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: too deep into the escalation trap or the cycle of stupid. The events over the past week should start to dissuade anyone from contemplating that the Strait of Hormuz is going back to normal anytime soon. The video from MarineTraffic illustrates that clearly with Iran's lane being the only active one. Today, IRGC said that 4 vessels were halted, while the US is saying that's fake. No one knows what's real anymore, but what is real is that shipowners will be reluctant to take the risk. He said, she said isn't good enough anymore when lives are at risk. We are now firmly in Robert A. Pape's escalation trap and Malcolm Nance's cycle of stupid. It is clear and obvious the US cannot give Iran the control of the Strait of Hormuz because it will make it the most powerful oil producer in the world. And since this conflict is all or nothing, we will either have to topple the regime, or Iran will come out victorious. There's no in-between. Let's see how this weekend goes, but from a flow perspective, nothing is going through. Zero barrels went through on July 17 and the last two days have not been revised higher by Kpler.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: too deep into the escalation trap or the cycle of stupid. The events over the past week should start to dissuade anyone from contemplating that the Strait of Hormuz is going back to normal anytime soon. The video from MarineTraffic illustrates that clearly with Iran's lane being the only active one. Today, IRGC said that 4 vessels were halted, while the US is saying that's fake. No one knows what's real anymore, but what is real is that shipowners will be reluctant to take the risk. He said, she said isn't good enough anymore when lives are at risk. We are now firmly in Robert A. Pape's escalation trap and Malcolm Nance's cycle of stupid. It is clear and obvious the US cannot give Iran the control of the Strait of Hormuz because it will make it the most powerful oil producer in the world. And since this conflict is all or nothing, we will either have to topple the regime, or Iran will come out victorious. There's no in-between. Let's see how this weekend goes, but from a flow perspective, nothing is going through. Zero barrels went through on July 17 and the last two days have not been revised higher by Kpler.

135,721 views

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Unprecedented. Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Unprecedented. Source: MarineTraffic

426,638 views

Strait of Hormuz the last 24 hours: fighting time. Well, it looks like the Strait is closed again. IRGC fired at two ships, one of them is sinking, so there's that. The US tried to get another group of tankers in, and two were hit. The two VLCCs made it in. Incredible that these tanker owners are fearless. As the escalation continues, tankers will likely transit without AIS on, but they ultimately turn it back on after they pass, so we will see them. Only time will tell how this conflict ends, but for now, the inbound VLCCs are completely insufficient to reduce the production shut-in. I have included the video from MarineTraffic and the tanker list below.

Strait of Hormuz the last 24 hours: fighting time. Well, it looks like the Strait is closed again. IRGC fired at two ships, one of them is sinking, so there's that. The US tried to get another group of tankers in, and two were hit. The two VLCCs made it in. Incredible that these tanker owners are fearless. As the escalation continues, tankers will likely transit without AIS on, but they ultimately turn it back on after they pass, so we will see them. Only time will tell how this conflict ends, but for now, the inbound VLCCs are completely insufficient to reduce the production shut-in. I have included the video from MarineTraffic and the tanker list below.

125,272 views

My analysis of the Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Traffic flow has slowed considerably since the strike yesterday, at least on AIS. There was a small cluster of VLCCs that were escorted by the US that transited the Strait of Hormuz. These 3 VLCCs were unsanctioned presenting the largest inbound VLCC count since the MOU was signed. Following the US strike, there's one tanker that's bravely transiting the Oman route, but has stalled at the end of the video. It is yet to be seen what happens. There were several interesting u-turns observed over the last 24 hours with one LNG tanker, Umm Salal, turning around. This weekend will be important to see just how many transits we see through the Oman lane. I have attached the video from MarineTraffic and my table of inbound tankers.

My analysis of the Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Traffic flow has slowed considerably since the strike yesterday, at least on AIS. There was a small cluster of VLCCs that were escorted by the US that transited the Strait of Hormuz. These 3 VLCCs were unsanctioned presenting the largest inbound VLCC count since the MOU was signed. Following the US strike, there's one tanker that's bravely transiting the Oman route, but has stalled at the end of the video. It is yet to be seen what happens. There were several interesting u-turns observed over the last 24 hours with one LNG tanker, Umm Salal, turning around. This weekend will be important to see just how many transits we see through the Oman lane. I have attached the video from MarineTraffic and my table of inbound tankers.

160,306 views

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: the 8th deal? Since the TACO yesterday, Iranian news reported that the US may be willing to let Iran control inbound tanker flows. This is funny as shit because whoever controls inbound tankers essentially controls outbound flows. But who gives a shit about logic these days. Just as the market was set to open on Sunday, the US sent a convoy through the Oman lane where a panamax, Velos Amber, was spotted with its AIS turned off right before it entered. You can see it in the video from MarineTraffic. Shortly after, UKMTO reported that Iran fired something at the tanker. It did not hit, but it was likely another warning signal. What's clear is that the Oman lane is still active with firms like Kpler and other showing flows close to 3-5 million b/d. What's unclear is when the Iranians will implement enforcement on the Oman lane, especially for inbound tankers. I suspect we are near the end of this TACO nonsense. From an oil inventory standpoint, inbound VLCCs to the US will push commercial crude inventories to operational minimums just as SPR runs out at the end of August. Trump, along with the IEA, will have to announce another round of SPR. It's now or never.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: the 8th deal? Since the TACO yesterday, Iranian news reported that the US may be willing to let Iran control inbound tanker flows. This is funny as shit because whoever controls inbound tankers essentially controls outbound flows. But who gives a shit about logic these days. Just as the market was set to open on Sunday, the US sent a convoy through the Oman lane where a panamax, Velos Amber, was spotted with its AIS turned off right before it entered. You can see it in the video from MarineTraffic. Shortly after, UKMTO reported that Iran fired something at the tanker. It did not hit, but it was likely another warning signal. What's clear is that the Oman lane is still active with firms like Kpler and other showing flows close to 3-5 million b/d. What's unclear is when the Iranians will implement enforcement on the Oman lane, especially for inbound tankers. I suspect we are near the end of this TACO nonsense. From an oil inventory standpoint, inbound VLCCs to the US will push commercial crude inventories to operational minimums just as SPR runs out at the end of August. Trump, along with the IEA, will have to announce another round of SPR. It's now or never.

69,250 views

The last 24 hours in the Strait of Hormuz are a doozy. At the start of the clip, you will see many of the vessels that were going through the Oman route take the Iran route instead. Now there's something I should probably point out. In the last week or so, US escorts through the Oman lane typically saw VLCCs transit out; that was not the case this time. In addition, US transits typically show a cluster of ships moving together, which was not the case here either. Basically, I'm just saying it doesn't look like a typical US escort. But it was also interesting that some of the vessels were able to leave right away via the Iran route, while others turned back. I'm not entirely sure what's going on. Visible AIS data-wise, there were no other escorts that took place. Inbound VLCCs were zero today for the first time since the MOU was signed. I will need to check the satellite data tomorrow, but I'm sure some went in; we just don't know right now. What's clear, however, is that the Oman route will be heavily contested in the coming days. Any assumption of normality in the Strait of Hormuz is wishful thinking. Here is the video from MarineTraffic and I've included the table of inbound tankers.

The last 24 hours in the Strait of Hormuz are a doozy. At the start of the clip, you will see many of the vessels that were going through the Oman route take the Iran route instead. Now there's something I should probably point out. In the last week or so, US escorts through the Oman lane typically saw VLCCs transit out; that was not the case this time. In addition, US transits typically show a cluster of ships moving together, which was not the case here either. Basically, I'm just saying it doesn't look like a typical US escort. But it was also interesting that some of the vessels were able to leave right away via the Iran route, while others turned back. I'm not entirely sure what's going on. Visible AIS data-wise, there were no other escorts that took place. Inbound VLCCs were zero today for the first time since the MOU was signed. I will need to check the satellite data tomorrow, but I'm sure some went in; we just don't know right now. What's clear, however, is that the Oman route will be heavily contested in the coming days. Any assumption of normality in the Strait of Hormuz is wishful thinking. Here is the video from MarineTraffic and I've included the table of inbound tankers.

98,265 views

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: calm before the storm. Following yesterday's escort, there was nothing today. Traffic visibly dropped. The US gave Iran 24 hours to make a public statement about how the Strait of Hormuz is open, and there will be no further attacks on commercial vessels. But as you have all seen from my daily updates, the Oman lane was always going to be contested, so this is not new. The fact that the US issued another ultimatum just means escalation is inevitable. This comes after President Trump said that the ceasefire is no longer in place. Regardless, inbound tankers have been nonexistent for the last 5 days. This will force Gulf producers to shut-in production again. This is an all-or-nothing conflict. Let's see how this weekend unfolds. I have included the video from MarineTraffic and my table for inbound tankers below.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: calm before the storm. Following yesterday's escort, there was nothing today. Traffic visibly dropped. The US gave Iran 24 hours to make a public statement about how the Strait of Hormuz is open, and there will be no further attacks on commercial vessels. But as you have all seen from my daily updates, the Oman lane was always going to be contested, so this is not new. The fact that the US issued another ultimatum just means escalation is inevitable. This comes after President Trump said that the ceasefire is no longer in place. Regardless, inbound tankers have been nonexistent for the last 5 days. This will force Gulf producers to shut-in production again. This is an all-or-nothing conflict. Let's see how this weekend unfolds. I have included the video from MarineTraffic and my table for inbound tankers below.

82,842 views

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: Escalation continues. The US and Iran continue to bomb each other, but no tankers have been attacked, at least not any that have been publicly reported. Mainstream media in the past 48 hours really started to pick up on the notion that the oil shuttling service through the Oman lane is slowing down. Based on satellite data, it is not completely dead yet, but how much are the shipowners willing to risk it? Well, they are having a hard time getting crew members to agree, and a few have already reported that the captains have refused transit. In the meantime, the Iran lane is getting all the traffic with AIS turned on. No visible tanker transits through the Oman lane, as expected. I have included the video from MarineTraffic.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: Escalation continues. The US and Iran continue to bomb each other, but no tankers have been attacked, at least not any that have been publicly reported. Mainstream media in the past 48 hours really started to pick up on the notion that the oil shuttling service through the Oman lane is slowing down. Based on satellite data, it is not completely dead yet, but how much are the shipowners willing to risk it? Well, they are having a hard time getting crew members to agree, and a few have already reported that the captains have refused transit. In the meantime, the Iran lane is getting all the traffic with AIS turned on. No visible tanker transits through the Oman lane, as expected. I have included the video from MarineTraffic.

74,496 views

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. With the US and Iran now trading blows, there were no US escorts in the last 24 hours. Inbound VLCCs unrelated to Iran fell to zero for the last 2 days. The key to the oil math was always inbound tankers, not outbound tankers. With no incoming VLCCs, production shut-in will rise, which is the essence of the oil market deficit. As you will see in the MarineTraffic video, AIS spoofing appears about halfway through. According to MenchOsint 's reporting today, IRGC speed boats turned vessels around in the Oman lane. This will also prevent shadow transits from taking place. With US conducting the largest strike since the ceasefire took place in April, it will be interesting to see what develops further. I have included my inbound tanker list below for the last 3 days.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. With the US and Iran now trading blows, there were no US escorts in the last 24 hours. Inbound VLCCs unrelated to Iran fell to zero for the last 2 days. The key to the oil math was always inbound tankers, not outbound tankers. With no incoming VLCCs, production shut-in will rise, which is the essence of the oil market deficit. As you will see in the MarineTraffic video, AIS spoofing appears about halfway through. According to MenchOsint 's reporting today, IRGC speed boats turned vessels around in the Oman lane. This will also prevent shadow transits from taking place. With US conducting the largest strike since the ceasefire took place in April, it will be interesting to see what develops further. I have included my inbound tanker list below for the last 3 days.

84,101 views

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Source: MarineTraffic

227,246 views

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Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: Iran learns the Twitter game The US has dominated the Iran war so far in one category: the jawbone. Iranian diplomats like Araghchi and Ghalibaf are either too stupid, too naive, or complicit to realize that the US is absolutely kicking Iran's ass in the media game. We've had countless ceasefire announcements, the Strait of Hormuz is opening soon, and a peace deal is coming headlines over the last 5 months. Oil traders have already experienced VAR (value-at-risk) shocks, so taking outright long positions isn't possible for many large trading firms. But it seems the Iranians are learning the Twitter game with hardliners now taking firmer control over both the public communication channels and the diplomacy routes. Soon after another bogus headline from Pakistan about how the US and Iran are going to reach some permanent peace deal soon, the newly appointed Mohsen Rezaee denied all of it with his posts about the conditions the US needs to meet. I suspect oil market participants are taking notice as well as oil prices completely disregarded the Pakistani headline, Chris Wright's bogus claim about ~9 million b/d moving through the Strait, and Trump's comments. Either way, we will see soon enough what the next escalation roadmap looks like. It won't be long. Video from MarineTraffic.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: Iran learns the Twitter game The US has dominated the Iran war so far in one category: the jawbone. Iranian diplomats like Araghchi and Ghalibaf are either too stupid, too naive, or complicit to realize that the US is absolutely kicking Iran's ass in the media game. We've had countless ceasefire announcements, the Strait of Hormuz is opening soon, and a peace deal is coming headlines over the last 5 months. Oil traders have already experienced VAR (value-at-risk) shocks, so taking outright long positions isn't possible for many large trading firms. But it seems the Iranians are learning the Twitter game with hardliners now taking firmer control over both the public communication channels and the diplomacy routes. Soon after another bogus headline from Pakistan about how the US and Iran are going to reach some permanent peace deal soon, the newly appointed Mohsen Rezaee denied all of it with his posts about the conditions the US needs to meet. I suspect oil market participants are taking notice as well as oil prices completely disregarded the Pakistani headline, Chris Wright's bogus claim about ~9 million b/d moving through the Strait, and Trump's comments. Either way, we will see soon enough what the next escalation roadmap looks like. It won't be long. Video from MarineTraffic.

248,527 views • 20 days ago

My analysis of the Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. If the tankers use the Iran route, they are dominantly Iran-related. If the tankers use the Oman route, they are not, and never sanctioned. I have heard from ship owners that most tankers cannot use the Iran route because the EU has not lifted sanctions on IRGC. Using the Iran route would risk sanctions, making the Oman route the only viable option. With more conflict going on between IRGC and the US, the visible AIS data on Oman's tanker route is going to go dark again, which means Iran will have to keep escalating in order to completely halt flows. For the US, the fact that the Oman route might be blocked presents it with a big ultimatum: either the US escalates or gives IRGC control of the Strait of Hormuz. Logic says there's no way that would happen, so escalation will continue. Given that Trump has made it obvious that he does not want to escalate, I fear that the IRGC would just keep escalating until they gain control. This issue is far from over. I have included the video from MarineTraffic and my table for inbound tankers.

My analysis of the Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. If the tankers use the Iran route, they are dominantly Iran-related. If the tankers use the Oman route, they are not, and never sanctioned. I have heard from ship owners that most tankers cannot use the Iran route because the EU has not lifted sanctions on IRGC. Using the Iran route would risk sanctions, making the Oman route the only viable option. With more conflict going on between IRGC and the US, the visible AIS data on Oman's tanker route is going to go dark again, which means Iran will have to keep escalating in order to completely halt flows. For the US, the fact that the Oman route might be blocked presents it with a big ultimatum: either the US escalates or gives IRGC control of the Strait of Hormuz. Logic says there's no way that would happen, so escalation will continue. Given that Trump has made it obvious that he does not want to escalate, I fear that the IRGC would just keep escalating until they gain control. This issue is far from over. I have included the video from MarineTraffic and my table for inbound tankers.

404,279 views • 2 months ago

Strait of Hormuz over the last 48 hours: Back to the start. As the war rages on, Fujairah as the main tanker shuttle port is all but dead after the IRGC fired missiles at two VLCCs, the first escalation of its type yesterday. Even with US protection, it was not enough, and this is going to take ~6 million b/d of flow out of the market. To further add to my point that the escalation is increasing, this segment from the WSJ article is very concerning: "There was also concern among shippers that the scope of Iran’s attacks was widening away from the immediate vicinity of the strait after a vessel was targeted off Oman early Tuesday, according to its owner, London-based Stolt-Nielsen. It had not crossed the strait at all and was loaded with Omani chemicals headed to Malaysia, according to Kpler." We are in no-man's land now. Either Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz or it doesn't. It's all-or-nothing. I have included the video from MarineTraffic.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 48 hours: Back to the start. As the war rages on, Fujairah as the main tanker shuttle port is all but dead after the IRGC fired missiles at two VLCCs, the first escalation of its type yesterday. Even with US protection, it was not enough, and this is going to take ~6 million b/d of flow out of the market. To further add to my point that the escalation is increasing, this segment from the WSJ article is very concerning: "There was also concern among shippers that the scope of Iran’s attacks was widening away from the immediate vicinity of the strait after a vessel was targeted off Oman early Tuesday, according to its owner, London-based Stolt-Nielsen. It had not crossed the strait at all and was loaded with Omani chemicals headed to Malaysia, according to Kpler." We are in no-man's land now. Either Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz or it doesn't. It's all-or-nothing. I have included the video from MarineTraffic.

215,629 views • 1 month ago

Here's my analysis of the Strait of Hormuz situation for the last 24 hours. As I noted yesterday, I was seeing a lot of vessels using the Oman route to exit. This was following the announcement by Oman and IMO. The IRGC retailiated today on a vessel, but even after the attack, I am still seeing transits. It's a lot less, but there are vessels willing to take the risk. On the inbound front, the flow is still heavily restricted. Whatever outflow we are seeing today is unsustainable as there are not enough non-Iranian tankers going in. In particular, we need empty VLCCs going in to load up crude. This is just a trickle so far. In my view, the traffic in the Oman lane will lead to more escalation by IRGC. Without throttling flows entirely in the Southern lane, IRGC will lose control of its leverage over the Strait. If they act, then it's a question of what the US does after. I think this is only the beginning. I have included the time lapse video with names using MarineTraffic data and the list of inbound tankers.

Here's my analysis of the Strait of Hormuz situation for the last 24 hours. As I noted yesterday, I was seeing a lot of vessels using the Oman route to exit. This was following the announcement by Oman and IMO. The IRGC retailiated today on a vessel, but even after the attack, I am still seeing transits. It's a lot less, but there are vessels willing to take the risk. On the inbound front, the flow is still heavily restricted. Whatever outflow we are seeing today is unsustainable as there are not enough non-Iranian tankers going in. In particular, we need empty VLCCs going in to load up crude. This is just a trickle so far. In my view, the traffic in the Oman lane will lead to more escalation by IRGC. Without throttling flows entirely in the Southern lane, IRGC will lose control of its leverage over the Strait. If they act, then it's a question of what the US does after. I think this is only the beginning. I have included the time lapse video with names using MarineTraffic data and the list of inbound tankers.

166,275 views • 2 months ago

This is my analysis of the Strait of Hormuz and you can see it in the video from MarineTraffic. Tanker inflows remain heavily restricted. I have included a table of June 24 data thus far. What's obvious to me is that there's an exodus of tankers using the Oman route. You can see this at the beginning of the video and towards the end of the video. There's another group ready to leave. The US appears to be coordinating with these groups to support transit. Again, most of the traffic is outbound as they are trying to get stranded tankers out. IRGC just announced that tankers must adhere to the rules. But so far, there's not much enforcement on the Oman lane. The longer the transits continue on the Oman lane, the faster IRGC will lose control of the Strait. This means that escalation is a high probability scenario.

This is my analysis of the Strait of Hormuz and you can see it in the video from MarineTraffic. Tanker inflows remain heavily restricted. I have included a table of June 24 data thus far. What's obvious to me is that there's an exodus of tankers using the Oman route. You can see this at the beginning of the video and towards the end of the video. There's another group ready to leave. The US appears to be coordinating with these groups to support transit. Again, most of the traffic is outbound as they are trying to get stranded tankers out. IRGC just announced that tankers must adhere to the rules. But so far, there's not much enforcement on the Oman lane. The longer the transits continue on the Oman lane, the faster IRGC will lose control of the Strait. This means that escalation is a high probability scenario.

165,073 views • 2 months ago

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Just a quick cheat guide: any tanker ending with "prosperity" or "b" will be used for ship-to-ship transfers via the Oman lane under US escorts. VLCC inbound tanker flow, excluding Iran, is around 4 a day right now, or 8 million b/d. Most of the inbound tankers using the Iran route are limited to Iranian flows and products. I have included the video from MarineTraffic and the last two days for reference.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Just a quick cheat guide: any tanker ending with "prosperity" or "b" will be used for ship-to-ship transfers via the Oman lane under US escorts. VLCC inbound tanker flow, excluding Iran, is around 4 a day right now, or 8 million b/d. Most of the inbound tankers using the Iran route are limited to Iranian flows and products. I have included the video from MarineTraffic and the last two days for reference.

101,531 views • 2 months ago

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. I am seeing fewer vessels transiting in general (possible with AIS off). But there's an interesting point in the video from MarineTraffic where it is clear that the US escorted two groups of tankers through the Oman lane. This time, they brought in 3 VLCCs. In terms of inbound tankers, this group represented half of the total inbound and was entirely on the crude side. Given that the Iranians have said that no technical talks will take place this week, I suspect this is another move to escalate the issue of the Oman lane. I've included both June 28 and June 29 tables as the cutoff date might confuse some people as to why Felicity or Norita were not included on the June 29 list.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. I am seeing fewer vessels transiting in general (possible with AIS off). But there's an interesting point in the video from MarineTraffic where it is clear that the US escorted two groups of tankers through the Oman lane. This time, they brought in 3 VLCCs. In terms of inbound tankers, this group represented half of the total inbound and was entirely on the crude side. Given that the Iranians have said that no technical talks will take place this week, I suspect this is another move to escalate the issue of the Oman lane. I've included both June 28 and June 29 tables as the cutoff date might confuse some people as to why Felicity or Norita were not included on the June 29 list.

100,442 views • 2 months ago

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: same old shit. In the past 7 days, Kpler estimated ~2 million b/d exited the Strait of Hormuz. A total of 15 tankers exited with 4 of them being related to Iran. Based on the video from MarineTraffic, you can see some tankers still going through like Nissos Kea, Rotterdam Energy, and Mraweh. The traffic is extremely limited in the South, so IRGC hasn't mined it yet, but I think it is inevitable. To gain full control, they will have to get total compliance, which the US will oppose.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: same old shit. In the past 7 days, Kpler estimated ~2 million b/d exited the Strait of Hormuz. A total of 15 tankers exited with 4 of them being related to Iran. Based on the video from MarineTraffic, you can see some tankers still going through like Nissos Kea, Rotterdam Energy, and Mraweh. The traffic is extremely limited in the South, so IRGC hasn't mined it yet, but I think it is inevitable. To gain full control, they will have to get total compliance, which the US will oppose.

56,248 views • 1 month ago

Strait of Hormuz over the last 48 hours. Nothing notable other than the Russian Yacht about to pass at the end of the video. NORD (IMO: 9853785) Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz over the last 48 hours. Nothing notable other than the Russian Yacht about to pass at the end of the video. NORD (IMO: 9853785) Source: MarineTraffic

167,082 views • 4 months ago

Strait of Hormuz over the last 72 hours: escalation continues. Visible vessel traffic fell off a cliff. Only the Iran lane has vessels with AIS on, nothing in the Oman lane. We know there were still transits because UKMTO reported vessels being attacked and IRGC said 4 vessels were attacked yesterday. One tanker, Kavomaleas, was hit and caught on fire. You can see that in the video time-lapse. The Oman lane will remain heavily contested. Bloomberg reported that tanker owners are offering 6 months' worth of pay if the crews make the voyage in and out of the Strait of Hormuz. How much is your life worth? I guess we will see how long this continues, but what's obvious is that this conflict remains all-or-nothing. Video from MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz over the last 72 hours: escalation continues. Visible vessel traffic fell off a cliff. Only the Iran lane has vessels with AIS on, nothing in the Oman lane. We know there were still transits because UKMTO reported vessels being attacked and IRGC said 4 vessels were attacked yesterday. One tanker, Kavomaleas, was hit and caught on fire. You can see that in the video time-lapse. The Oman lane will remain heavily contested. Bloomberg reported that tanker owners are offering 6 months' worth of pay if the crews make the voyage in and out of the Strait of Hormuz. How much is your life worth? I guess we will see how long this continues, but what's obvious is that this conflict remains all-or-nothing. Video from MarineTraffic

55,975 views • 1 month ago

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: war is back on? MOU on, MOU off. Strait on, Strait off. War on, war off. The back and forth is getting stupid at some point, but what's not stupid is the stakes involved here. Some have incorrectly pointed out that all the US had to do was adhere to the MOU. No, that's wrong. If the US gave Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran would be the most powerful oil producer in the world. And during the MOU period, IRGC stopped issuing permits because Israel wouldn't leave Lebanon. The Strait of Hormuz is the leverage; that's why the MOU was dead on arrival. Looking at the video from MarineTraffic, you can see that there are some tankers that trickle in, but they do not move the production shut-in math. UAE appears to be the only one that's getting some benefit from this, but even its export volumes in July are down ~600k b/d m-o-m. Iraq is moving volumes, but it is likely a mixture of Iranian crude + Iraqi crude. This game has been played for years before as to evade both the blockade and sanctions. Nonetheless, with the strikes ongoing again, the markets should come to the realization soon enough that the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz will not be solved with diplomacy. There's no way out but through.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: war is back on? MOU on, MOU off. Strait on, Strait off. War on, war off. The back and forth is getting stupid at some point, but what's not stupid is the stakes involved here. Some have incorrectly pointed out that all the US had to do was adhere to the MOU. No, that's wrong. If the US gave Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran would be the most powerful oil producer in the world. And during the MOU period, IRGC stopped issuing permits because Israel wouldn't leave Lebanon. The Strait of Hormuz is the leverage; that's why the MOU was dead on arrival. Looking at the video from MarineTraffic, you can see that there are some tankers that trickle in, but they do not move the production shut-in math. UAE appears to be the only one that's getting some benefit from this, but even its export volumes in July are down ~600k b/d m-o-m. Iraq is moving volumes, but it is likely a mixture of Iranian crude + Iraqi crude. This game has been played for years before as to evade both the blockade and sanctions. Nonetheless, with the strikes ongoing again, the markets should come to the realization soon enough that the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz will not be solved with diplomacy. There's no way out but through.

45,066 views • 1 month ago

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. US escorts continue in the Oman lane, but the pace of the inbound tankers (crude) has not increased. It is interesting to see more tankers using the Iranian route, but most are carrying products. Because of the rush of outflows, Iran does not have enough VLCCs to take crude away. I suspect they are using some of the tankers going to Iraq to transport some of the crude there. This is why if you see some of the tankers going to Iraq to load crude, I would be skeptical to assume that they are there just for Iraq. According to data from Φίλιππος , the pace of the outflow has slowed meaningfully since the escalation the week prior. We still have a gap of ~4 to ~5 million b/d even accounting for bypass. More and more of the outbound crude is headed for China, so they are coming back. It will only be obvious to the market after the fact. I have included the video from MarineTraffic and I have included the table for inbound tankers for July 2 and 3.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. US escorts continue in the Oman lane, but the pace of the inbound tankers (crude) has not increased. It is interesting to see more tankers using the Iranian route, but most are carrying products. Because of the rush of outflows, Iran does not have enough VLCCs to take crude away. I suspect they are using some of the tankers going to Iraq to transport some of the crude there. This is why if you see some of the tankers going to Iraq to load crude, I would be skeptical to assume that they are there just for Iraq. According to data from Φίλιππος , the pace of the outflow has slowed meaningfully since the escalation the week prior. We still have a gap of ~4 to ~5 million b/d even accounting for bypass. More and more of the outbound crude is headed for China, so they are coming back. It will only be obvious to the market after the fact. I have included the video from MarineTraffic and I have included the table for inbound tankers for July 2 and 3.

53,753 views • 1 month ago

Strait of Hormuz traffic over the last 36 hours. 3 tankers went in (visible AIS), they are: RHN (IMO: 9208215) ALICIA (IMO: 9281695) AGIOS FANOURIOS I (IMO: 9759824) Outside of that, very little activity. Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz traffic over the last 36 hours. 3 tankers went in (visible AIS), they are: RHN (IMO: 9208215) ALICIA (IMO: 9281695) AGIOS FANOURIOS I (IMO: 9759824) Outside of that, very little activity. Source: MarineTraffic

86,012 views • 4 months ago

Strait of Hormuz over the last 72 hours. Nothing of importance. Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz over the last 72 hours. Nothing of importance. Source: MarineTraffic

67,531 views • 4 months ago

The Strait of Hormuz when the ships were forced to U-turn. Cruise ships (blue) at the bottom, one made it through, 3 are now stuck.

The Strait of Hormuz when the ships were forced to U-turn. Cruise ships (blue) at the bottom, one made it through, 3 are now stuck.

71,231 views • 4 months ago

Segment on the Iran topic from the JD Vance interview. Strait of Hormuz toll is a red line for the US. Strait of Hormuz toll is a red line for the Iranians. All or nothing conflict.

Segment on the Iran topic from the JD Vance interview. Strait of Hormuz toll is a red line for the US. Strait of Hormuz toll is a red line for the Iranians. All or nothing conflict.

36,209 views • 2 months ago

Here's an update with the latest traffic flow in the Strait of Hormuz. RAFFLES PROSPERITY (IMO: 9390264) - Not Sanctioned, Oil Products Tanker EAN SPIR (IMO: 9298818) - Not Sanctioned, Oil Products Tanker FPMC C LORD (IMO: 9447574) - Not Sanctioned, VLCC SEAWAY (IMO: 9273650) - Not Sanctioned, Oil/Chemical Tanker AKTI A (IMO: 9935569) - Not Sanctioned, Oil/Chemical Tanker CRAVE (IMO: 9045807) - Sanctioned, LPG/Chemical Tanker GARDIAN (IMO: 9114581) - Sanctioned, LPG Tanker TORIN (IMO: 9281566) - Sanctioned, Oil/Chemical Tanker RAINE (IMO: 9223540) - Sanctioned, LPG Tanker NV AQUAMARINE (IMO: 9307736) - Sanctioned, LPG Tanker 5 sanctioned, 5 unsanctioned

Here's an update with the latest traffic flow in the Strait of Hormuz. RAFFLES PROSPERITY (IMO: 9390264) - Not Sanctioned, Oil Products Tanker EAN SPIR (IMO: 9298818) - Not Sanctioned, Oil Products Tanker FPMC C LORD (IMO: 9447574) - Not Sanctioned, VLCC SEAWAY (IMO: 9273650) - Not Sanctioned, Oil/Chemical Tanker AKTI A (IMO: 9935569) - Not Sanctioned, Oil/Chemical Tanker CRAVE (IMO: 9045807) - Sanctioned, LPG/Chemical Tanker GARDIAN (IMO: 9114581) - Sanctioned, LPG Tanker TORIN (IMO: 9281566) - Sanctioned, Oil/Chemical Tanker RAINE (IMO: 9223540) - Sanctioned, LPG Tanker NV AQUAMARINE (IMO: 9307736) - Sanctioned, LPG Tanker 5 sanctioned, 5 unsanctioned

66,981 views • 4 months ago

Audio recording from the IRGC’s message to tankers on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Audio recording from the IRGC’s message to tankers on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

56,387 views • 4 months ago

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Source: MarineTraffic

43,092 views • 5 months ago

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