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Contrarian Investment Research: Energy (Oil & Gas)

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Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: too deep into the escalation trap or the cycle of stupid. The events over the past week should start to dissuade anyone from contemplating that the Strait of Hormuz is going back to normal anytime soon. The video from MarineTraffic illustrates that clearly with Iran's lane being the only active one. Today, IRGC said that 4 vessels were halted, while the US is saying that's fake. No one knows what's real anymore, but what is real is that shipowners will be reluctant to take the risk. He said, she said isn't good enough anymore when lives are at risk. We are now firmly in Robert A. Pape's escalation trap and Malcolm Nance's cycle of stupid. It is clear and obvious the US cannot give Iran the control of the Strait of Hormuz because it will make it the most powerful oil producer in the world. And since this conflict is all or nothing, we will either have to topple the regime, or Iran will come out victorious. There's no in-between. Let's see how this weekend goes, but from a flow perspective, nothing is going through. Zero barrels went through on July 17 and the last two days have not been revised higher by Kpler.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: too deep into the escalation trap or the cycle of stupid. The events over the past week should start to dissuade anyone from contemplating that the Strait of Hormuz is going back to normal anytime soon. The video from MarineTraffic illustrates that clearly with Iran's lane being the only active one. Today, IRGC said that 4 vessels were halted, while the US is saying that's fake. No one knows what's real anymore, but what is real is that shipowners will be reluctant to take the risk. He said, she said isn't good enough anymore when lives are at risk. We are now firmly in Robert A. Pape's escalation trap and Malcolm Nance's cycle of stupid. It is clear and obvious the US cannot give Iran the control of the Strait of Hormuz because it will make it the most powerful oil producer in the world. And since this conflict is all or nothing, we will either have to topple the regime, or Iran will come out victorious. There's no in-between. Let's see how this weekend goes, but from a flow perspective, nothing is going through. Zero barrels went through on July 17 and the last two days have not been revised higher by Kpler.

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Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: another "calm before the storm" moment? On the escalation front, some of the OSINT accounts pointed out that the recent attacks point to a ground operation. I have no idea on that front, so I will leave the experts to it. But from a flow perspective, we are back to the start. Kpler has done a good job tracking shadow transits, and even though the data might not get revised for a few days, it is obvious the slowdown is coming. The last 2 days, flows were 0.074 and 0.198 million bbls. The previous 5 days were 5.516 million b/d. This brings the weekly average to 3.98 million b/d. Looking at the video from MarineTraffic, you can see that it's about as quiet as quiet gets. Iranian flows will also slow to nothing as the US naval blockade is in place. With the recent US/Iran escalation moving to civilian targets, who knows where we go from here...

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: another "calm before the storm" moment? On the escalation front, some of the OSINT accounts pointed out that the recent attacks point to a ground operation. I have no idea on that front, so I will leave the experts to it. But from a flow perspective, we are back to the start. Kpler has done a good job tracking shadow transits, and even though the data might not get revised for a few days, it is obvious the slowdown is coming. The last 2 days, flows were 0.074 and 0.198 million bbls. The previous 5 days were 5.516 million b/d. This brings the weekly average to 3.98 million b/d. Looking at the video from MarineTraffic, you can see that it's about as quiet as quiet gets. Iranian flows will also slow to nothing as the US naval blockade is in place. With the recent US/Iran escalation moving to civilian targets, who knows where we go from here...

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Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours. Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours. Source: MarineTraffic

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Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. US successfully escorted one group of tankers in through the Oman lane. All of them had their AIS off, but there was one Indian cargo ship that had it on when it went through. The list can be seen below. Following two days of US strikes, the US is back to escorting ships in. My guess is that it will try to escort a group out tonight, and Iran can either respond and create more escalation going into the weekend or it can lose leverage. The Oman lane will be heavily contested in the coming days, which leaves either side with no choice but to escalate. I have included the video from MarineTraffic.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. US successfully escorted one group of tankers in through the Oman lane. All of them had their AIS off, but there was one Indian cargo ship that had it on when it went through. The list can be seen below. Following two days of US strikes, the US is back to escorting ships in. My guess is that it will try to escort a group out tonight, and Iran can either respond and create more escalation going into the weekend or it can lose leverage. The Oman lane will be heavily contested in the coming days, which leaves either side with no choice but to escalate. I have included the video from MarineTraffic.

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Strait of Hormuz the last 24 hours: fighting time. Well, it looks like the Strait is closed again. IRGC fired at two ships, one of them is sinking, so there's that. The US tried to get another group of tankers in, and two were hit. The two VLCCs made it in. Incredible that these tanker owners are fearless. As the escalation continues, tankers will likely transit without AIS on, but they ultimately turn it back on after they pass, so we will see them. Only time will tell how this conflict ends, but for now, the inbound VLCCs are completely insufficient to reduce the production shut-in. I have included the video from MarineTraffic and the tanker list below.

Strait of Hormuz the last 24 hours: fighting time. Well, it looks like the Strait is closed again. IRGC fired at two ships, one of them is sinking, so there's that. The US tried to get another group of tankers in, and two were hit. The two VLCCs made it in. Incredible that these tanker owners are fearless. As the escalation continues, tankers will likely transit without AIS on, but they ultimately turn it back on after they pass, so we will see them. Only time will tell how this conflict ends, but for now, the inbound VLCCs are completely insufficient to reduce the production shut-in. I have included the video from MarineTraffic and the tanker list below.

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Strait of Hormuz the last 24 hours. Unreal. Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz the last 24 hours. Unreal. Source: MarineTraffic

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Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: calm before the storm. Following yesterday's escort, there was nothing today. Traffic visibly dropped. The US gave Iran 24 hours to make a public statement about how the Strait of Hormuz is open, and there will be no further attacks on commercial vessels. But as you have all seen from my daily updates, the Oman lane was always going to be contested, so this is not new. The fact that the US issued another ultimatum just means escalation is inevitable. This comes after President Trump said that the ceasefire is no longer in place. Regardless, inbound tankers have been nonexistent for the last 5 days. This will force Gulf producers to shut-in production again. This is an all-or-nothing conflict. Let's see how this weekend unfolds. I have included the video from MarineTraffic and my table for inbound tankers below.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: calm before the storm. Following yesterday's escort, there was nothing today. Traffic visibly dropped. The US gave Iran 24 hours to make a public statement about how the Strait of Hormuz is open, and there will be no further attacks on commercial vessels. But as you have all seen from my daily updates, the Oman lane was always going to be contested, so this is not new. The fact that the US issued another ultimatum just means escalation is inevitable. This comes after President Trump said that the ceasefire is no longer in place. Regardless, inbound tankers have been nonexistent for the last 5 days. This will force Gulf producers to shut-in production again. This is an all-or-nothing conflict. Let's see how this weekend unfolds. I have included the video from MarineTraffic and my table for inbound tankers below.

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Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours. Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours. Source: MarineTraffic

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Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. With the US and Iran now trading blows, there were no US escorts in the last 24 hours. Inbound VLCCs unrelated to Iran fell to zero for the last 2 days. The key to the oil math was always inbound tankers, not outbound tankers. With no incoming VLCCs, production shut-in will rise, which is the essence of the oil market deficit. As you will see in the MarineTraffic video, AIS spoofing appears about halfway through. According to MenchOsint 's reporting today, IRGC speed boats turned vessels around in the Oman lane. This will also prevent shadow transits from taking place. With US conducting the largest strike since the ceasefire took place in April, it will be interesting to see what develops further. I have included my inbound tanker list below for the last 3 days.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. With the US and Iran now trading blows, there were no US escorts in the last 24 hours. Inbound VLCCs unrelated to Iran fell to zero for the last 2 days. The key to the oil math was always inbound tankers, not outbound tankers. With no incoming VLCCs, production shut-in will rise, which is the essence of the oil market deficit. As you will see in the MarineTraffic video, AIS spoofing appears about halfway through. According to MenchOsint 's reporting today, IRGC speed boats turned vessels around in the Oman lane. This will also prevent shadow transits from taking place. With US conducting the largest strike since the ceasefire took place in April, it will be interesting to see what develops further. I have included my inbound tanker list below for the last 3 days.

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My analysis of the Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Traffic flow has slowed considerably since the strike yesterday, at least on AIS. There was a small cluster of VLCCs that were escorted by the US that transited the Strait of Hormuz. These 3 VLCCs were unsanctioned presenting the largest inbound VLCC count since the MOU was signed. Following the US strike, there's one tanker that's bravely transiting the Oman route, but has stalled at the end of the video. It is yet to be seen what happens. There were several interesting u-turns observed over the last 24 hours with one LNG tanker, Umm Salal, turning around. This weekend will be important to see just how many transits we see through the Oman lane. I have attached the video from MarineTraffic and my table of inbound tankers.

My analysis of the Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Traffic flow has slowed considerably since the strike yesterday, at least on AIS. There was a small cluster of VLCCs that were escorted by the US that transited the Strait of Hormuz. These 3 VLCCs were unsanctioned presenting the largest inbound VLCC count since the MOU was signed. Following the US strike, there's one tanker that's bravely transiting the Oman route, but has stalled at the end of the video. It is yet to be seen what happens. There were several interesting u-turns observed over the last 24 hours with one LNG tanker, Umm Salal, turning around. This weekend will be important to see just how many transits we see through the Oman lane. I have attached the video from MarineTraffic and my table of inbound tankers.

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The last 24 hours in the Strait of Hormuz are a doozy. At the start of the clip, you will see many of the vessels that were going through the Oman route take the Iran route instead. Now there's something I should probably point out. In the last week or so, US escorts through the Oman lane typically saw VLCCs transit out; that was not the case this time. In addition, US transits typically show a cluster of ships moving together, which was not the case here either. Basically, I'm just saying it doesn't look like a typical US escort. But it was also interesting that some of the vessels were able to leave right away via the Iran route, while others turned back. I'm not entirely sure what's going on. Visible AIS data-wise, there were no other escorts that took place. Inbound VLCCs were zero today for the first time since the MOU was signed. I will need to check the satellite data tomorrow, but I'm sure some went in; we just don't know right now. What's clear, however, is that the Oman route will be heavily contested in the coming days. Any assumption of normality in the Strait of Hormuz is wishful thinking. Here is the video from MarineTraffic and I've included the table of inbound tankers.

The last 24 hours in the Strait of Hormuz are a doozy. At the start of the clip, you will see many of the vessels that were going through the Oman route take the Iran route instead. Now there's something I should probably point out. In the last week or so, US escorts through the Oman lane typically saw VLCCs transit out; that was not the case this time. In addition, US transits typically show a cluster of ships moving together, which was not the case here either. Basically, I'm just saying it doesn't look like a typical US escort. But it was also interesting that some of the vessels were able to leave right away via the Iran route, while others turned back. I'm not entirely sure what's going on. Visible AIS data-wise, there were no other escorts that took place. Inbound VLCCs were zero today for the first time since the MOU was signed. I will need to check the satellite data tomorrow, but I'm sure some went in; we just don't know right now. What's clear, however, is that the Oman route will be heavily contested in the coming days. Any assumption of normality in the Strait of Hormuz is wishful thinking. Here is the video from MarineTraffic and I've included the table of inbound tankers.

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Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Source: MarineTraffic

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Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Visible escorts happening under US protection. There were 4 VLCCs that went in with AIS on. On the Iranian side, inbound tankers remain limited ex-Iran. So far, no escalation has occurred from IRGC. I was wrong to assume that the $6 billion had already been returned to the Iranians. I guess time will tell what's really going on. Video from MarineTraffic and I have included the table of inbound tankers below. VLCCs not related to Iran are highlighted.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Visible escorts happening under US protection. There were 4 VLCCs that went in with AIS on. On the Iranian side, inbound tankers remain limited ex-Iran. So far, no escalation has occurred from IRGC. I was wrong to assume that the $6 billion had already been returned to the Iranians. I guess time will tell what's really going on. Video from MarineTraffic and I have included the table of inbound tankers below. VLCCs not related to Iran are highlighted.

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Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Visible AIS traffic is observed mainly in the Iran route. The Oman route has gone completely dark for inbound tankers. Based on inbound tankers, they all used Iran route. I will need to confirm later using satellite data how many tankers went in through the Oman route. The video is from MarineTraffic and I have included my table for inbound tankers.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Visible AIS traffic is observed mainly in the Iran route. The Oman route has gone completely dark for inbound tankers. Based on inbound tankers, they all used Iran route. I will need to confirm later using satellite data how many tankers went in through the Oman route. The video is from MarineTraffic and I have included my table for inbound tankers.

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Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Unprecedented. Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Unprecedented. Source: MarineTraffic

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Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. It is very clear to me that IRGC is throttling flows. Any assumptions about a return to normal need to be discarded immediately. They are using the permit mechanism to delay, and since the announcement of the closure this past weekend, they have stopped issuing permits, so the current transits are either previous permit holders or friendly country vessels. It seems there have not been a lot of inbound tankers. Mostly product. I included two videos, one with name, one without. Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. It is very clear to me that IRGC is throttling flows. Any assumptions about a return to normal need to be discarded immediately. They are using the permit mechanism to delay, and since the announcement of the closure this past weekend, they have stopped issuing permits, so the current transits are either previous permit holders or friendly country vessels. It seems there have not been a lot of inbound tankers. Mostly product. I included two videos, one with name, one without. Source: MarineTraffic

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Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. As expected, the Oman route will be heavily contested in the coming days. The inbound tanker flows have slowed to a trickle and with the latest attack from IRGC using missiles (previously drones), the situation appears to be escalating. From a flow standpoint, inbound tanker rate is insufficient to change the production shut-in math. Yes, there are some loadings going on, but if the onshore storage drains with no visibility for a lot more VLCCs, the production will not restart, which is the crux of the issue. I guess time will tell what happens from here on out. I suspect the US will keep testing Iran's resolve with the Oman route. Note: At the beginning of the video, you will see the large group of vessels leaving associated with Japan. I have included video from MarineTraffic and my table of inbound tankers below.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. As expected, the Oman route will be heavily contested in the coming days. The inbound tanker flows have slowed to a trickle and with the latest attack from IRGC using missiles (previously drones), the situation appears to be escalating. From a flow standpoint, inbound tanker rate is insufficient to change the production shut-in math. Yes, there are some loadings going on, but if the onshore storage drains with no visibility for a lot more VLCCs, the production will not restart, which is the crux of the issue. I guess time will tell what happens from here on out. I suspect the US will keep testing Iran's resolve with the Oman route. Note: At the beginning of the video, you will see the large group of vessels leaving associated with Japan. I have included video from MarineTraffic and my table of inbound tankers below.

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Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Source: MarineTraffic

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Instead of regime change in Iran, we got the opposite outcome. IRGC is now firmly in control. This was most evident to me in mid-April when they forced tankers trying to leave to U-turn. We are in uncharted territories.

Instead of regime change in Iran, we got the opposite outcome. IRGC is now firmly in control. This was most evident to me in mid-April when they forced tankers trying to leave to U-turn. We are in uncharted territories.

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Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Nothing worth noting. Traffic remains minimal. Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Nothing worth noting. Traffic remains minimal. Source: MarineTraffic

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Strait of Hormuz over the last 48 hours: Back to the start. As the war rages on, Fujairah as the main tanker shuttle port is all but dead after the IRGC fired missiles at two VLCCs, the first escalation of its type yesterday. Even with US protection, it was not enough, and this is going to take ~6 million b/d of flow out of the market. To further add to my point that the escalation is increasing, this segment from the WSJ article is very concerning: "There was also concern among shippers that the scope of Iran’s attacks was widening away from the immediate vicinity of the strait after a vessel was targeted off Oman early Tuesday, according to its owner, London-based Stolt-Nielsen. It had not crossed the strait at all and was loaded with Omani chemicals headed to Malaysia, according to Kpler." We are in no-man's land now. Either Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz or it doesn't. It's all-or-nothing. I have included the video from MarineTraffic.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 48 hours: Back to the start. As the war rages on, Fujairah as the main tanker shuttle port is all but dead after the IRGC fired missiles at two VLCCs, the first escalation of its type yesterday. Even with US protection, it was not enough, and this is going to take ~6 million b/d of flow out of the market. To further add to my point that the escalation is increasing, this segment from the WSJ article is very concerning: "There was also concern among shippers that the scope of Iran’s attacks was widening away from the immediate vicinity of the strait after a vessel was targeted off Oman early Tuesday, according to its owner, London-based Stolt-Nielsen. It had not crossed the strait at all and was loaded with Omani chemicals headed to Malaysia, according to Kpler." We are in no-man's land now. Either Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz or it doesn't. It's all-or-nothing. I have included the video from MarineTraffic.

213,148 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen

My analysis of the Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. If the tankers use the Iran route, they are dominantly Iran-related. If the tankers use the Oman route, they are not, and never sanctioned. I have heard from ship owners that most tankers cannot use the Iran route because the EU has not lifted sanctions on IRGC. Using the Iran route would risk sanctions, making the Oman route the only viable option. With more conflict going on between IRGC and the US, the visible AIS data on Oman's tanker route is going to go dark again, which means Iran will have to keep escalating in order to completely halt flows. For the US, the fact that the Oman route might be blocked presents it with a big ultimatum: either the US escalates or gives IRGC control of the Strait of Hormuz. Logic says there's no way that would happen, so escalation will continue. Given that Trump has made it obvious that he does not want to escalate, I fear that the IRGC would just keep escalating until they gain control. This issue is far from over. I have included the video from MarineTraffic and my table for inbound tankers.

My analysis of the Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. If the tankers use the Iran route, they are dominantly Iran-related. If the tankers use the Oman route, they are not, and never sanctioned. I have heard from ship owners that most tankers cannot use the Iran route because the EU has not lifted sanctions on IRGC. Using the Iran route would risk sanctions, making the Oman route the only viable option. With more conflict going on between IRGC and the US, the visible AIS data on Oman's tanker route is going to go dark again, which means Iran will have to keep escalating in order to completely halt flows. For the US, the fact that the Oman route might be blocked presents it with a big ultimatum: either the US escalates or gives IRGC control of the Strait of Hormuz. Logic says there's no way that would happen, so escalation will continue. Given that Trump has made it obvious that he does not want to escalate, I fear that the IRGC would just keep escalating until they gain control. This issue is far from over. I have included the video from MarineTraffic and my table for inbound tankers.

403,566 Aufrufe • vor 22 Tagen

Here's my analysis of the Strait of Hormuz situation for the last 24 hours. As I noted yesterday, I was seeing a lot of vessels using the Oman route to exit. This was following the announcement by Oman and IMO. The IRGC retailiated today on a vessel, but even after the attack, I am still seeing transits. It's a lot less, but there are vessels willing to take the risk. On the inbound front, the flow is still heavily restricted. Whatever outflow we are seeing today is unsustainable as there are not enough non-Iranian tankers going in. In particular, we need empty VLCCs going in to load up crude. This is just a trickle so far. In my view, the traffic in the Oman lane will lead to more escalation by IRGC. Without throttling flows entirely in the Southern lane, IRGC will lose control of its leverage over the Strait. If they act, then it's a question of what the US does after. I think this is only the beginning. I have included the time lapse video with names using MarineTraffic data and the list of inbound tankers.

Here's my analysis of the Strait of Hormuz situation for the last 24 hours. As I noted yesterday, I was seeing a lot of vessels using the Oman route to exit. This was following the announcement by Oman and IMO. The IRGC retailiated today on a vessel, but even after the attack, I am still seeing transits. It's a lot less, but there are vessels willing to take the risk. On the inbound front, the flow is still heavily restricted. Whatever outflow we are seeing today is unsustainable as there are not enough non-Iranian tankers going in. In particular, we need empty VLCCs going in to load up crude. This is just a trickle so far. In my view, the traffic in the Oman lane will lead to more escalation by IRGC. Without throttling flows entirely in the Southern lane, IRGC will lose control of its leverage over the Strait. If they act, then it's a question of what the US does after. I think this is only the beginning. I have included the time lapse video with names using MarineTraffic data and the list of inbound tankers.

166,275 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen

This is my analysis of the Strait of Hormuz and you can see it in the video from MarineTraffic. Tanker inflows remain heavily restricted. I have included a table of June 24 data thus far. What's obvious to me is that there's an exodus of tankers using the Oman route. You can see this at the beginning of the video and towards the end of the video. There's another group ready to leave. The US appears to be coordinating with these groups to support transit. Again, most of the traffic is outbound as they are trying to get stranded tankers out. IRGC just announced that tankers must adhere to the rules. But so far, there's not much enforcement on the Oman lane. The longer the transits continue on the Oman lane, the faster IRGC will lose control of the Strait. This means that escalation is a high probability scenario.

This is my analysis of the Strait of Hormuz and you can see it in the video from MarineTraffic. Tanker inflows remain heavily restricted. I have included a table of June 24 data thus far. What's obvious to me is that there's an exodus of tankers using the Oman route. You can see this at the beginning of the video and towards the end of the video. There's another group ready to leave. The US appears to be coordinating with these groups to support transit. Again, most of the traffic is outbound as they are trying to get stranded tankers out. IRGC just announced that tankers must adhere to the rules. But so far, there's not much enforcement on the Oman lane. The longer the transits continue on the Oman lane, the faster IRGC will lose control of the Strait. This means that escalation is a high probability scenario.

165,073 Aufrufe • vor 25 Tagen

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Just a quick cheat guide: any tanker ending with "prosperity" or "b" will be used for ship-to-ship transfers via the Oman lane under US escorts. VLCC inbound tanker flow, excluding Iran, is around 4 a day right now, or 8 million b/d. Most of the inbound tankers using the Iran route are limited to Iranian flows and products. I have included the video from MarineTraffic and the last two days for reference.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Just a quick cheat guide: any tanker ending with "prosperity" or "b" will be used for ship-to-ship transfers via the Oman lane under US escorts. VLCC inbound tanker flow, excluding Iran, is around 4 a day right now, or 8 million b/d. Most of the inbound tankers using the Iran route are limited to Iranian flows and products. I have included the video from MarineTraffic and the last two days for reference.

100,943 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. I am seeing fewer vessels transiting in general (possible with AIS off). But there's an interesting point in the video from MarineTraffic where it is clear that the US escorted two groups of tankers through the Oman lane. This time, they brought in 3 VLCCs. In terms of inbound tankers, this group represented half of the total inbound and was entirely on the crude side. Given that the Iranians have said that no technical talks will take place this week, I suspect this is another move to escalate the issue of the Oman lane. I've included both June 28 and June 29 tables as the cutoff date might confuse some people as to why Felicity or Norita were not included on the June 29 list.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. I am seeing fewer vessels transiting in general (possible with AIS off). But there's an interesting point in the video from MarineTraffic where it is clear that the US escorted two groups of tankers through the Oman lane. This time, they brought in 3 VLCCs. In terms of inbound tankers, this group represented half of the total inbound and was entirely on the crude side. Given that the Iranians have said that no technical talks will take place this week, I suspect this is another move to escalate the issue of the Oman lane. I've included both June 28 and June 29 tables as the cutoff date might confuse some people as to why Felicity or Norita were not included on the June 29 list.

100,442 Aufrufe • vor 20 Tagen

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. US escorts continue in the Oman lane, but the pace of the inbound tankers (crude) has not increased. It is interesting to see more tankers using the Iranian route, but most are carrying products. Because of the rush of outflows, Iran does not have enough VLCCs to take crude away. I suspect they are using some of the tankers going to Iraq to transport some of the crude there. This is why if you see some of the tankers going to Iraq to load crude, I would be skeptical to assume that they are there just for Iraq. According to data from Φίλιππος , the pace of the outflow has slowed meaningfully since the escalation the week prior. We still have a gap of ~4 to ~5 million b/d even accounting for bypass. More and more of the outbound crude is headed for China, so they are coming back. It will only be obvious to the market after the fact. I have included the video from MarineTraffic and I have included the table for inbound tankers for July 2 and 3.

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. US escorts continue in the Oman lane, but the pace of the inbound tankers (crude) has not increased. It is interesting to see more tankers using the Iranian route, but most are carrying products. Because of the rush of outflows, Iran does not have enough VLCCs to take crude away. I suspect they are using some of the tankers going to Iraq to transport some of the crude there. This is why if you see some of the tankers going to Iraq to load crude, I would be skeptical to assume that they are there just for Iraq. According to data from Φίλιππος , the pace of the outflow has slowed meaningfully since the escalation the week prior. We still have a gap of ~4 to ~5 million b/d even accounting for bypass. More and more of the outbound crude is headed for China, so they are coming back. It will only be obvious to the market after the fact. I have included the video from MarineTraffic and I have included the table for inbound tankers for July 2 and 3.

53,753 Aufrufe • vor 16 Tagen

Strait of Hormuz over the last 48 hours. Nothing notable other than the Russian Yacht about to pass at the end of the video. NORD (IMO: 9853785) Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz over the last 48 hours. Nothing notable other than the Russian Yacht about to pass at the end of the video. NORD (IMO: 9853785) Source: MarineTraffic

167,082 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Segment on the Iran topic from the JD Vance interview. Strait of Hormuz toll is a red line for the US. Strait of Hormuz toll is a red line for the Iranians. All or nothing conflict.

Segment on the Iran topic from the JD Vance interview. Strait of Hormuz toll is a red line for the US. Strait of Hormuz toll is a red line for the Iranians. All or nothing conflict.

36,209 Aufrufe • vor 19 Tagen

Strait of Hormuz traffic over the last 36 hours. 3 tankers went in (visible AIS), they are: RHN (IMO: 9208215) ALICIA (IMO: 9281695) AGIOS FANOURIOS I (IMO: 9759824) Outside of that, very little activity. Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz traffic over the last 36 hours. 3 tankers went in (visible AIS), they are: RHN (IMO: 9208215) ALICIA (IMO: 9281695) AGIOS FANOURIOS I (IMO: 9759824) Outside of that, very little activity. Source: MarineTraffic

86,008 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Strait of Hormuz over the last 72 hours. Nothing of importance. Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz over the last 72 hours. Nothing of importance. Source: MarineTraffic

67,531 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

The Strait of Hormuz when the ships were forced to U-turn. Cruise ships (blue) at the bottom, one made it through, 3 are now stuck.

The Strait of Hormuz when the ships were forced to U-turn. Cruise ships (blue) at the bottom, one made it through, 3 are now stuck.

71,231 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Here's an update with the latest traffic flow in the Strait of Hormuz. RAFFLES PROSPERITY (IMO: 9390264) - Not Sanctioned, Oil Products Tanker EAN SPIR (IMO: 9298818) - Not Sanctioned, Oil Products Tanker FPMC C LORD (IMO: 9447574) - Not Sanctioned, VLCC SEAWAY (IMO: 9273650) - Not Sanctioned, Oil/Chemical Tanker AKTI A (IMO: 9935569) - Not Sanctioned, Oil/Chemical Tanker CRAVE (IMO: 9045807) - Sanctioned, LPG/Chemical Tanker GARDIAN (IMO: 9114581) - Sanctioned, LPG Tanker TORIN (IMO: 9281566) - Sanctioned, Oil/Chemical Tanker RAINE (IMO: 9223540) - Sanctioned, LPG Tanker NV AQUAMARINE (IMO: 9307736) - Sanctioned, LPG Tanker 5 sanctioned, 5 unsanctioned

Here's an update with the latest traffic flow in the Strait of Hormuz. RAFFLES PROSPERITY (IMO: 9390264) - Not Sanctioned, Oil Products Tanker EAN SPIR (IMO: 9298818) - Not Sanctioned, Oil Products Tanker FPMC C LORD (IMO: 9447574) - Not Sanctioned, VLCC SEAWAY (IMO: 9273650) - Not Sanctioned, Oil/Chemical Tanker AKTI A (IMO: 9935569) - Not Sanctioned, Oil/Chemical Tanker CRAVE (IMO: 9045807) - Sanctioned, LPG/Chemical Tanker GARDIAN (IMO: 9114581) - Sanctioned, LPG Tanker TORIN (IMO: 9281566) - Sanctioned, Oil/Chemical Tanker RAINE (IMO: 9223540) - Sanctioned, LPG Tanker NV AQUAMARINE (IMO: 9307736) - Sanctioned, LPG Tanker 5 sanctioned, 5 unsanctioned

66,981 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Audio recording from the IRGC’s message to tankers on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Audio recording from the IRGC’s message to tankers on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

56,387 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Strait of Hormuz over the last 7 days. AIS/GPS spoofing is making it hard to track. Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz over the last 7 days. AIS/GPS spoofing is making it hard to track. Source: MarineTraffic

35,322 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Source: MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Source: MarineTraffic

43,092 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

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