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The BOJ is hiking at a snail's pace, afraid of repeating the mistake that burst the property bubble. The result is a weak yen, JGB long-end selling off, and no clear commitment to hikes. That is a toxic mix. The government says weak yen helps exports, then complains when it goes too far. The policy mix is not consistent.

The BOJ is hiking at a snail's pace, afraid of repeating the mistake that burst the property bubble. The result is a weak yen, JGB long-end selling off, and no clear commitment to hikes. That is a toxic mix. The government says weak yen helps exports, then complains when it goes too far. The policy mix is not consistent.

86,361 次观看 • 3 个月前

Current S&P earnings growth rates look like post-recession numbers, driven by easier year-over-year comparisons. But 2026 EPS is expected to grow 24%, moderating to 10 to 16% in the following years. That kind of expansion only works if AI efficiency delivers what companies are pricing in.

Current S&P earnings growth rates look like post-recession numbers, driven by easier year-over-year comparisons. But 2026 EPS is expected to grow 24%, moderating to 10 to 16% in the following years. That kind of expansion only works if AI efficiency delivers what companies are pricing in.

12,389 次观看 • 28 天前

Consensus expects a negative headline CPI print, the first since 2020. The driver is straightforward: AAA data shows average gasoline prices in June running 10% below May. That alone takes 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points off the headline number. The negative print is an energy story, not a broader signal.

Consensus expects a negative headline CPI print, the first since 2020. The driver is straightforward: AAA data shows average gasoline prices in June running 10% below May. That alone takes 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points off the headline number. The negative print is an energy story, not a broader signal.

12,159 次观看 • 1 个月前

Walsh's punchy rhetoric on price stability is aimed at avoiding a rate hike, not delivering one. Hawkish talk in the first meetings tightens financial conditions on its own, gets through the energy hump, and restores credibility without pulling the trigger. Avoiding a hike is the priority.

Walsh's punchy rhetoric on price stability is aimed at avoiding a rate hike, not delivering one. Hawkish talk in the first meetings tightens financial conditions on its own, gets through the energy hump, and restores credibility without pulling the trigger. Avoiding a hike is the priority.

15,373 次观看 • 1 个月前

Eurozone headline inflation came in at 2.8%, below many forecasts. That is awkward timing for the ECB. The June hike is now looking premature, and markets were already questioning how much tightening was really required. It does not help the ECB's credibility.

Eurozone headline inflation came in at 2.8%, below many forecasts. That is awkward timing for the ECB. The June hike is now looking premature, and markets were already questioning how much tightening was really required. It does not help the ECB's credibility.

11,971 次观看 • 1 个月前

Strip the political spin, and the core fact is that US-Iran talks did happen, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, and produced a framework for further negotiations. Technical talks are happening this week. The stumbling block is Lebanon. Iran sees Hezbollah and Israel as part of the MOU. The US says they are not.

Strip the political spin, and the core fact is that US-Iran talks did happen, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, and produced a framework for further negotiations. Technical talks are happening this week. The stumbling block is Lebanon. Iran sees Hezbollah and Israel as part of the MOU. The US says they are not.

15,106 次观看 • 1 个月前

The direction for Fed rates remains lower. The key question is timing. Another cut could come if unemployment rises further, or later if inflation confidence improves and policymakers feel comfortable moving rates closer to neutral.

The direction for Fed rates remains lower. The key question is timing. Another cut could come if unemployment rises further, or later if inflation confidence improves and policymakers feel comfortable moving rates closer to neutral.

13,774 次观看 • 6 个月前

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