Nick Dorsey
@Midnight_Captl • 22,452 subscribers
Building @joule14research | AI & semi’s | girl dad | ex. Apple Global Sourcing
Videos
I think I figured out how SpaceX / Elon Musk are going to pay for the ~8GW of DC capacity SA has forecasted them to deploy next year… as Brad Gerstner mentioned in this clip, $NVDA shareholders do not want NVIDIA backstopping $100’s of billions of dollars worth of compute- it will terrify the market AND, it seems highly unlikely that the Hypers will pay directly for that much compute either since it will balloon their spending next year + at the economics needed here, it would all be going to Frontier labs (hurting the diversification strategy they all are trying to pursue) So… what I think is likely to happen: Brad Gerstner laid out that in the past, the financial structure of compute infra was you get 25% payback per year, you recoup the infra cost by end of year 4, then year 5 profit & year 6 is the kicker to bump IRR up nicely That’s now changed as the demand has become so intense at the Frontier labs that the payback period on infra has compressed maybe into <1yr basically, this $300-$400B in CapEx is going to show up in 3-6 month term lease agreements between SpaceX & Anthropic / OpenAI with enough margin to pay off the compute portion entirely (or vast majority) over the lifespan of the agreement money will trade hands basically up front from ANT/OAI to SpaceX then to NVIDIA. NVIDIA will be paid in full for the GPUs up front and they’ll commit to supporting Elon / SpaceX to stand up the compute in the timeframe specified (SpaceX will ultimately be on the hook for timelines) The kicker would be if NVIDIA captures any durable rent here for facilitating this… a perpetual dividend or something like that
Nick Dorsey113,333 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
The final minute or so of the SA podcast today was interesting. Jordan Nanos:“SpaceX chooses to install NVIDIA GPUs, because they are the best. Pretty matter of fact” Fabricated Knowledge looks serious (SA has large clients in Google & AMD who don’t want to hear this). Jordan then notes that a bunch of people hearing Jeff Dean left Google because he wanted to work with NVIDIA GPUs “so bad” 🤔
Nick Dorsey (dm for gpus)97,746 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
You guys think I’m doing this on 1 scoop of chicken you’re out of your minds
Nick Dorsey798,520 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren
The change from the Dwarkesh Patel podcast 2 months ago vs. the tweet below from Andrej Karpathy is genuinely insane It’s a night and day difference. We went from “these models are slop and we’re 10 years away” to “I’ve never felt more behind and I could be 10x more powerful” This all changed with Opus 4.5. It will be looked back on as a historical milestone.
Nick Dorsey293,195 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten
Wow… this is amazing This latest episode of the The All-In Podcast is a complete referendum of closed source AI (ie. Anthropic/OAI) in a way I haven’t yet heard from industry leaders Open source AI is about not just have a moment. It’s about to be a monsoon. A flood of demand. Watch the clip here from david friedberg. There’s a huge vibe shift underway. The move away from proprietary AI that captures companies IP (Ant/OAI), to Open source AI that is sovereign and owned by enterprises This is the future that Satya, Karp, and Jensen have been speaking about. I expect a tidal wave of demand for open source AI to be on our doorstep after the 4th of July festivities are over. GPU rental rates are about to soar once again Incredibly bullish for $NVDA $PLTR and $MSFT : all key partners in enabling this future
Nick Dorsey102,535 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten
Really awesome clip from today’s TBPN interview with Brad Gerstner Brad is “in favor of Jensen returning 70-75% of NV’s FCF to shareholders” (assuming beginning next year) Quick math Friday! - $NVDA is going to do ~$400B in rev CY26 (~$220B in FCF) - They announced a $1 per yr dividend. There are ~24B shares outstanding so cost to co is ~$24B annually. Also announced $80B SBB program. Total announced spend as a % of this year’s FCF is ~50% NEXT YEAR - Jensen has already let us know they’re going to grow FASTER than hyperscaler Capex. Which is expected to be ~$1T between the 4, up from ~$700B this year. (~50% growth roughly). I expect NV thinks they can grow ~60% next year - meaning $NVDA CY27 gross rev will be ~$640B and FCF will be ~$350B (they also provided light guidance that they expect no change to their margins) IF THEY RETURN 75% OF $350B OF FCF NEXT YEAR That works out to $262B returned to shareholders If we take the same divvy/SBB return program split as this year (25% dividend / 75% SBB) That works out to ~$65B in Dividends (up ~2.7x from this year), and ~$196.5B of Share buybacks (roughly 4% of current market cap) If you’re an $NVDA shareholder you have a lot of good things coming your way 😁
Nick Dorsey70,669 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten
NVIDIA is about to grow a new moat that has the potential to be the company’s most impenetrable moat yet: The Compute Futures Market One of the reasons why there’s so much demand for U.S. T-bills is because the market for them is incredibly deep, and large pools of capital can come in and out freely without much disturbance. That attribute is attractive, which leads to more demand for T-bills Liquidity begets liquidity Another example is what Bill Ackman is describing in the attached clip - the more valuable a company becomes, the easier it is for said company to raise capital to fund expansion, which in of itself is virtuous and valuable The same concept is going to apply to compute, and in some ways- it already is. NVIDIA GPUs are already the most financeable (in many cases the only financeable) form of compute for various parties to deploy in their data centers. But the introduction of a forward curve that facilitates financial expression like hedging takes that concept to a different level Companies who consume compute (structurally short compute) will want to be able to hedge their input costs, and companies who produce compute (structurally long compute) will want to be able to hedge their output price. The market will coalesce even more around the deepest / most liquid pools to facilitate this - which will be NVIDIA based futures (WTI Crude) This liquidity itself will become part of the value of purchasing NVIDIA equipment, it will be part of the justification to pay the “Nvidia tax”. And when the liquidity reaches a certain depth, it will be almost impossible to break - because to break it would involve coordinating between massive amounts of misaligned parties- impossible So NVIDIA, by no additional virtue or effort of their own will likely absorb another massive structural advantage that may be the most difficult advantage to overcome for any competitor out of anything that has been built so far. The rich really do get richer.
Nick Dorsey33,944 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten
Phenomenal video here by Martin Shkreli In our opinion, he perfectly lays out the conditions for answering if we’re in a bubble or not By far, the most important question is about whether test time compute can be used to solve hyper scale problems. Watch the clip.
Midnight Capital66,729 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten
Wow… I know this is happening but it’s still so jarring to listen to This is Owen Jennings, the Business Lead at Block (the company that just laid off 40% of it’s entire company) talking about the new workflow for the company post reorg >Dev teams of 14 turned to 3 >Claude Fast mode with unlimited tokens >Managing multiple agents at once + context switching Also he totally refutes the idea that the layoffs were because of excess Covid hiring- attributes them specifically to advancements in AI Really just mind blowing
Nick Dorsey43,069 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten
Everyone’s talking about what Jensen said at GTC about AI capex. But the most important thing he said got almost no attention — that software companies are about to become the biggest resellers of AI tokens in the world. Think about what that means. Workday buys raw intelligence from OpenAI. Wraps it in HR domain expertise. Sells it back as an AI product at a massive markup. That’s not a software company anymore. That’s a refinery. And right now nobody is tracking the economics of that refining layer — what the crude costs, what the refined product sells for, and who’s capturing the spread. This is the most important data gap in AI right now. More on this soon. $NVDA
Nick Dorsey40,200 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten
And there it is… Google (and I imagine the other compute providers) are beginning to work with Citadel / Jane Street / etc to improve quantitative trading with compute The demand for an edge in capital markets is quasi infinite The flood gates are open $GOOG $NVDA
Midnight Capital32,174 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten
I spoke about this with Chris Barber on his show (see clip). It was clear to me the hyper’s ( like $GOOG) were going to begin to dilute, which is exactly what they’re now doing. Slight update to my thinking tho from when the pod was recorded - I think they’re going to grow income from ops FASTER than what I previously thought So this dilution may just be a temporary stop gap to cover this year’s shortfall in net income to pay for the CapEx. There’s more fuel in the tank than the headlines from this will convey. A lot more. Google is doing the right there here. Now the pressure’s on the other Hyper’s to decide what they want to do (I think they’ll have to follow suit)
Midnight Capital17,566 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten
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