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Dario Amodei is the biggest boogeyman in AI and he should seriously consider stepping down as Anthropic’s CEO. Amodei has repeatedly promotes extreme predictions about mass unemployment, uncontrollable AI and catastrophic harm while running one of the companies racing to build the technology he describes as dangerous. In May 2025, Amodei predicted that AI could eliminate half of all entry level white collar jobs and drive US unemployment to between 10% and 20% within one to five years. More than a year later, the predicted employment collapse has not materialized and Anthropic’s own head of economics reported that the available data showed no significant effect from AI on the overall US labor market. Stanford researchers analyzing payroll records through June 2026 also found no evidence of widespread, economy wide job displacement caused by AI. Amodei is now calling for slower frontier model development, permanent outside evaluators inside AI laboratories, common industry standards and government involvement in enforcing safety rules. These proposals may address legitimate risks but they could also produce regulatory capture. Anthropic and OpenAI can afford embedded auditors, extensive testing and expensive compliance systems while startups and open source developers may not be able to meet the same requirements. The result could be a system in which the largest AI companies help write the rules, receive government approval and gain protection from emerging competitors. Amodei is not offering to stop Anthropic’s development but he wants the entire industry to slow down under rules that Anthropic would help shape. If Amodei truly believes that AI presents an imminent threat to employment and human control, he should explain why Anthropic continues building more powerful models. Otherwise, he risks using speculative worst case scenarios to create fear and support regulations that could ultimately benefit his own company.
Milk Road AI137,008 görüntüleme • 2 gün önce
Anthropic may have just created the mother of all IPO disclosure problems (Save this). Anthropic confidentially submitted its draft S-1 to the SEC on June 1, beginning the formal review process for a potential IPO. During this period, companies must tightly control public communications that could influence investors. The SEC interprets an offer broadly enough to include interviews, social media posts and other publicity that conditions the market. That is why Chamath Palihapitiya cited Google and Slack, Google had to insert the full Playboy interview with Larry Page and Sergey Brin into its prospectus, while Slack had to explain Chamath’s CNBC comments directly to the SEC. Anthropic’s situation could be more consequential because the statements concern its core product and not ordinary corporate promotion. Former researcher Jacob Coxon warned that frontier labs are developing potentially uncontrollable AI, while Anthropic’s alignment lead publicly supported the concern and estimated a greater than 10% extinction risk within a decade. That creates an obvious question for the SEC and prospective investors because if Anthropic’s own safety personnel believe its technology could cause catastrophic harm, how does the company describe that risk, its safeguards and the possible financial consequences in its prospectus? Section 11 of the Securities Act allows IPO investors to sue when a registration statement contains a material false statement or omits information necessary to keep its disclosures from being misleading. Anthropic does not become legally liable simply because an employee predicts disaster because product liability cases still generally require an actual defect, measurable harm and a causal connection between the product and that harm. The immediate danger is therefore disclosure risk and not an automatic trillion dollar product liability judgment. Anthropic must either treat these extinction claims as credible and explain them transparently in its S-1 or distance the company from them and explain why its own senior safety employees are overstating the danger. Trying to sell investors a trillion dollar growth story while employees describe the underlying product as potentially civilization-ending is the contradiction David Sacks is attacking.
Milk Road AI77,332 görüntüleme • 4 gün önce
The man who turned 225 million dollars into 5.5 billion dollars explained on camera exactly why he made his biggest bet. This is Leopold Aschenbrenner, the same person whose Bloom Energy position is now worth close to 2 billion dollars after Oracle's 2.8 gigawatt fuel cell deal laying out the power math that drove every investment decision his fund has made. In 2022, the GPT-4 training cluster consumed roughly 10 megawatts of power and cost about 500 million dollars. AI compute has been scaling at roughly half an order of magnitude per year meaning the largest training cluster doubles in power requirement every 12 to 18 months without stopping. By 2024, the largest cluster was approximately 100 megawatts, the equivalent of 100,000 high-end GPUs and costs in the billions. By 2026, right now, the leading training cluster requires a full gigawatt of continuous power and that is the output of a large nuclear reactor. By 2028, the projection reaches 10 gigawatts, more electricity than most US states generate in total. By 2030, the trillion-dollar cluster, 100 gigawatts, over 20 percent of everything the United States currently produces in electricity, consumed by a single AI training installation. And that is just the training cluster. Inference, the continuous compute required to actually run AI products for hundreds of millions of users requires multiples of that on top. Meanwhile, total US electricity production has barely grown five percent over the last decade and the grid was not built for this. And the transformer shortage, the switchgear backorders, and the canceled data center projects that are making headlines right now are the first visible symptoms of a power system hitting a wall that Aschenbrenner saw coming years before the rest of the market. This is exactly why he built a 875 million dollar position in Bloom Energy, a company that generates electricity directly at the data center site using fuel cells, completely bypassing the grid bottleneck that is already stopping half of all planned US data centers from opening on schedule. The thesis was never complicated. The bottleneck in AI is not the models, not the chips, and not the software. The bottleneck is whether civilization can generate enough electricity to run the machines fast enough to matter.
Milk Road AI4,643,919 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce
The biggest AI companies may be using safety to lock everyone else out of the future (Save this). David Sacks believes that warnings about catastrophic AI risks will build public support for a powerful federal regulator. That regulator may never explicitly ban open source AI. Instead, it could require every advanced model to remain continuously monitored, centrally controlled and capable of being withdrawn. Closed models such as Claude could satisfy those requirements because they operate on company controlled servers. Open weight models would struggle to comply because anyone can download, copy and modify their underlying weights. Once those weights are publicly released, the developer cannot recall every copy, monitor every user or guarantee that its original safeguards remain intact. Anthropic identifies this irreversibility as a legitimate security concern. Applying identical rules to open and closed models could therefore produce very unequal consequences. Anthropic and OpenAI could afford expensive testing, licensing and monitoring requirements, while startups and independent developers might be unable to comply. The eventual result could be a government protected oligopoly dominated by a few closed model companies. There is evidence supporting part of Sacks’ concern. Anthropic advocates mandatory pre-release testing for every sufficiently powerful model, whether it is open or closed, with evaluations focused on cyber, biological and alignment risks. However, Anthropic explicitly denies supporting a blanket ban on open weight models. The company describes open models without dangerous capabilities as a public good and argues that regulation should depend on demonstrated capabilities rather than whether a model is open or closed. Sacks’ strongest argument is therefore about regulatory consequences because safety organizations could receive stronger protections, politicians could acquire greater authority and dominant AI companies could gain an expensive compliance moat. And open source competitors could gradually be eliminated without the government ever formally announcing a ban.
Milk Road AI51,727 görüntüleme • 4 gün önce
Chamath just delivered the clearest diagnosis of what is happening to enterprise software and the OpenAI Deployment Company is the most damning piece of evidence he could have picked. "The low end of the market is basically finished. There is no safe space." 90% of public SaaS stocks are down 30-80% from their 52 week highs, the median software stock is now negative over the last 3-6 months. Goldman Sachs reported that software forward P/E multiples fell from 35x to 20x, the lowest absolute level since 2014 and the smallest premium to the S&P 500 since 2010. The low end died first and fastest, because AI replaced it most directly. The small business tools, the lightweight project managers, the single function SaaS products that charged $49 a month per seat, those are being replaced by AI agents that do the same work as a workflow, not a product. You do not buy an AI powered tool, you describe what you need and it builds it and the seat based model that created the SaaS industry simply does not apply to that transaction. But Chamath's more interesting argument is about the high end and the tell he points to is perfect. OpenAI just raised $4 billion from 19 investors including TPG, Brookfield, Bain, and McKinsey to launch a consulting company and guaranteed those investors a 17.5% annual return to do it. On $4 billion in committed capital, that is roughly $700 million per year in guaranteed payouts, owed by a company that is projected to lose $14 billion in 2026. The goal of this venture is to compete directly with Deloitte, PwC, Ernst & Young, Andersen, and Cognizant. Think about what that structure reveals. OpenAI lost half of its enterprise LLM API market share from 50% to 25% between late 2023 and mid-2025, with Anthropic now leading at 32%. Its response was not to build a better model but rather to raise $4 billion, offer guaranteed PE-tier returns and hire embedded engineers to physically sit inside client organizations and make AI actually work in production. The reason, as Chamath identified, is that the high end of the market is not easy. "It's not like boop boop boop, put in a prompt and beep bap boop, it all works," he said and the data confirms exactly that. 88% of organizations running AI agents reported a security incident in the past year, 42% of C-suite executives say AI adoption is creating internal organizational conflict. The average enterprise AI consulting implementation costs $228,000 in year one versus $77,000 for platform-based approaches and most still stall before reaching production. Anthropic immediately matched OpenAI with a competing $1.5 billion consulting venture backed by Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, and Hellman & Friedman bringing the combined spend by the two leading AI labs on human powered enterprise deployment to $5.5 billion in a single month Chamath's read is that the high end, the large enterprise platforms like Salesforce with proprietary data flywheels, Palantir with its FDE model already proven at scale, Oracle with vertical specific data moats will survive and consolidate. The mid-market point solutions, the single function tools, the lightweight enterprise apps without defensible data assets, those are on the conveyor belt. The AI industry is not just disrupting the companies that use software but rather disrupting the companies that sell it.
Milk Road AI1,660,474 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce
Chamath was given a simple choice, 100 shares of Anthropic, 100 shares of OpenAI, 100 shares of SpaceX, pick one stack (Save this). He picked SpaceX without hesitation, and his reasoning is worth unpacking fully because it cuts to the heart of how the best investors think about technology bets. His take on OpenAI and Anthropic was actually generous. He acknowledged that Anthropic is the superior enterprise product, his own fund uses it as their foundational model and that ChatGPT has built one of the most powerful consumer brands in the history of technology. But the case for SpaceX is built on something completely different, it is not one business, but rather a platform for multiple businesses that compound off each other. Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, growing roughly 50% year over year, and represented 61% of SpaceX's total $18.7 billion in revenue. The EBITDA margin on the connectivity segment hit 63%, compared to 38–39% for the largest traditional telecom companies on earth. Subscriber count went from 2.3 million in 2023 to over 10.3 million by Q1 2026, spanning more than 160 countries, and revenue is projected to reach $15.5 billion in 2026. Chamath Palihapitiya core insight is that the global communications infrastructure is profoundly broken and he is right. Roughly 2.6 billion people globally still lack reliable internet access, and even in developed markets, rural connectivity is patchy, expensive, and controlled by legacy monopolies with no incentive to upgrade. Starlink is a replacement cycle for an entire layer of global infrastructure that has barely changed in 30 years. Every maritime vessel, every commercial aircraft, every military unit, every rural hospital, every developing-world government that wants connectivity now has one viable option that didn't exist five years ago. The maritime and aviation segments alone carry ARPUs of $250 to $25,000 per month per customer, orders of magnitude above the consumer subscription. But Chamath's most interesting point is what he called embedded optionality, the idea that SpaceX's business model doesn't stop at earth. SpaceX now has the only fully reusable heavy lift rocket system in the world with Starship, and it is the only company currently capable of launching the next generation of Starlink V3 satellites that carry roughly 10 times more capacity than the current constellation. Every new market SpaceX opens on earth, direct to cell with T-Mobile, enterprise contracts, government agreements becomes a template that can theoretically be replicated the moment humans establish a permanent presence elsewhere. A Starlink equivalent for a lunar base, a Mars colony, or an orbital station is the same product with a different launch address. Anthropic and OpenAI are betting on winning a model race where the finish line keeps moving while SpaceX is betting on owning the physical infrastructure layer of the next era of human civilization, on earth and eventually beyond it. One of those bets has a floor and the other doesn't and that is why Chamath picked Elon Musk's SpaceX. Milk Road remains bullish on SpaceX and the infrastructure layer it is building around Starlink, Starship, and global connectivity. If you’ve been thinking about joining Milk Road Pro, lock in the current price using the link below before prices go up next week.
Milk Road AI279,459 görüntüleme • 28 gün önce
This is WILD! Ray Kurzweil, the futurist who predicted the internet, smartphones, and AI says aging ends by 2032 (Save this) Kurzweil, now 78 years old, told a live audience that humanity will reach longevity escape velocity by 2032 and he explained exactly what that means with mathematical precision. Right now, for every year you live, you get back approximately five months of life expectancy from medical and scientific progress meaning you are losing roughly seven months of net life per calendar year. Longevity escape velocity is the threshold where that ratio flips, for every year you live, you get back a full year or more from scientific progress, meaning your biological clock starts running backward. Kurzweil's prediction is that threshold hits by 2032 and beyond that point, you do not simply stop dying of aging, you actively get younger every year. The mechanism is AI-driven drug discovery at a scale that was physically impossible five years ago. By 2030, Kurzweil argues, AI will be able to take a biological problem, generate millions of potential drug candidates, screen all of them, and run trials on simulated digital populations compressing decades of clinical research into weeks. This is already happening. David Sinclair's lab at Harvard used AI to virtually screen 8 billion molecules against aging targets and is now preparing human trials moving from $400,000 gene therapies toward a $100 pill that can reset biological age by 50 to 95% in four weeks. Sinclair has already demonstrated the ability to reverse aging in mammals restoring sight in mice with optic nerve damage and reversing Alzheimer's symptoms in lab models. Kurzweil's track record is what makes the 2032 claim impossible to dismiss. He predicted the internet's global dominance in 1990, the defeat of a world chess champion by a computer in 1998, pocket-sized devices as primary communications tools in 1999, and AI passing professional exams in the mid-2020s, all before anyone else was saying it publicly. If you are under 60 and in reasonable health, his message is stay alive, stay healthy, and get to 2032. The tools on the other side of that date will be unlike anything medicine has ever produced.
Milk Road AI965,704 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
This is WILD! MIT just solved one of the hardest unsolved problems in robotics (Save this). For decades, the fundamental problem with soft robots and wearable exoskeletons has not been compute or AI, it has been actuation. The moment you try to give a soft robot meaningful strength, you run into the same wall every engineer has hit since the field began, fluid-driven systems require external pumps, hydraulic reservoirs, and heavy infrastructure that makes the entire thing impractical to wear or embed into fabric. MIT's new Electrofluidic Fiber Muscles solve that problem by eliminating external infrastructure entirely. The key insight is electrohydrodynamic pumping using electric fields to generate pressure directly from electricity, with no moving parts, no motors, and no external fluid reservoir. The fibers are less than 2 millimeters thick, can be woven into fabric like ordinary textile, and operate in complete silence because nothing physically moves inside them, it is just ions propelling fluid through a closed circuit. The performance numbers published in Science Robotics are not conceptual, they are empirical results from actual hardware. These fibers achieve a power density of 50 watts per kilogram, matching skeletal muscle, with a contraction strain of 20% and a response time of 0.3 seconds. A single bundled configuration lifted 4 kilograms, 200 times its own weight while a separate configuration drove a robotic arm through a 40-degree bend compliant enough to safely complete a human handshake. Another configuration launched objects in under 100 milliseconds, which is faster than a human flinch reflex. The design mirrors biological muscle architecture in a way that prior artificial muscle approaches never achieved. The fibers are organized into antagonistic pairs, one contracts while the other extends, exactly like biceps and triceps and because the system runs in a closed loop, the relaxing fiber serves as the fluid reservoir for the contracting one, which is what allows the whole system to operate untethered with no external tank. The applications are not hypothetical but rather are the exact use cases the industry has been waiting years for the hardware to catch up to. Exoskeletons for physical labor, prosthetic limbs that move with the natural compliance of biological tissue, assistive garments for patients with motor disorders, and soft robots capable of safe physical contact with humans are all immediately unlocked by a muscle technology that is silent, lightweight, and weavable into clothing. The deeper significance is what this technology does when it meets the AI robotics wave that is already underway. Every major humanoid robot program, Figure, 1X, Boston Dynamics, Tesla Optimus is currently bottlenecked by the same hardware limitations these fibers address, actuators that are too rigid, too loud, too heavy, or too dependent on infrastructure to operate naturally alongside humans. Electrofluidic fiber muscles do not just solve a materials science problem but rather they remove one of the last physical barriers between robots that live in labs and robots that live in the world.
Milk Road AI1,207,572 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce
This is WILD! One week before SpaceX's historic IPO, Google signed a deal to pay SpaceX $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029 for access to 110,000 Nvidia GPUs, CPUs, and related infrastructure (Save this). That is $11 billion per year and up to $30 billion over the life of the contract. This comes less than a month after Anthropic committed $1.25 billion per month for full access to the Colossus 1 data center in Memphis, 200,000+ GPUs, 300+ megawatts of power capacity, through 2029. Two of the most consequential AI labs in the world combined committed value over $70 billion. The question that haunted SpaceX's IPO roadshow was why did Elon keep spending billions constructing Colossus, Macro Hard and Macro Harder, three facilities totaling nearly 2 gigawatts of AI compute when xAI's revenue wasn't yet on the same trajectory as OpenAI or Anthropic? Wall Street was pricing in a risk that Elon was building capacity ahead of revenue which would mean sustained cash burn without a clear payback timeline. That concern was legitimate on its face, because xAI had been aggressive on model development but had not yet demonstrated the enterprise revenue numbers to justify the infrastructure cost. The answer is that the compute itself was always the product. Amazon has AWS, Microsoft has Azure, Google has Google Cloud, Elon just confirmed that he has been quietly building the fourth major hyperscale AI cloud and his first two paying customers are Google and Anthropic, the very companies most aggressively competing in the AI race. xAI's Colossus facility in Memphis was built at a speed that no traditional data center developer could match, it went from groundbreaking to operational in roughly 122 days. That is what happens when you have direct Nvidia relationships, a construction operation built around SpaceX-style execution, and a founder who treats infrastructure buildout the same way he treats rocket launches: compress every timeline and eliminate every bottleneck. The result is that SpaceX now has three operational facilities, Colossus, Macro Hard, and Macro Harder with Macro Hard and Macro Harder in Blackwell architecture running 1.2 gigawatts combined. Colossus 1, built on H100s and optimized for inference, is the facility that went to Anthropic first. The Blackwell-era facilities are where the next-generation training workloads happen and Google's deal suggests they are renting into that capacity as it comes online through the second half of 2026. Elon's compute leasing business would generate approximately $45 billion in incremental annual revenue on top of the mid-$20 billion range analysts had been modeling for SpaceX more than enough to fully subsidize the infrastructure investment and take the financial pressure off xAI delivering immediate AI product revenue. That changes the entire valuation conversation of SpaceX completely! Milk road remains bullish on Space and come join Milk Road Pro and get our full SpaceX IPO breakdown, how we're thinking about the $1.75 trillion valuation and our entire AI thesis. Link below!
Milk Road AI762,493 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
Leopold Aschenbrenner, the 24 year old who wrote a 165 page AGI manifesto, got it right on the money, and turned it into a $5.5 billion hedge fund. And he's identifying the single most important milestone to watch for in all of AI. The question is can AI automate AI research itself? Here's why that question matters so much. Right now, a few thousand human researchers at the frontier labs are driving all the progress. They design experiments, write papers, propose architectural improvements, build the next generation of models and it's an incredibly small workforce doing incredibly high-leverage work. If an AI system can do that job even partially, the feedback loop changes completely. The AI makes algorithmic improvements, which produces more powerful AI, which makes better improvements, faster. You go from linear progress to compounding returns and a decade of research could compress into a year. Aschenbrenner says there's a "pretty reasonable chance" this happens within five years. He's not alone, Anthropic says they're on track to fully automate AI R&D as soon as early 2027. OpenAI has publicly targeted a fully autonomous AI researcher by March 2028 and Sam Altman has said a research intern level AI will exist before the end of this year. If he's right, the next few years won't look like the last few years but they'll look like nothing we've seen before. The future is bright!
Milk Road AI628,892 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce
Larry Ellison, the man who built Oracle into a $500 billion enterprise software empire and he said something that every investor needs to hear (Save this). "By 2029, I can guarantee you, AI is not going to be the problem." The problem is going to be compute specifically, who has enough of it and who does not. Ellison described the current AI race in terms that strip away all the abstract commentary about models and capabilities and reduce it to the one thing that actually determines who wins: "Me and Elon begging Jensen for GPUs. Please take our money. We need you to take more of our money, please." Citigroup raised its forecast for AI infrastructure spending to $2.8 trillion through 2029, with hyperscalers already spending at a $490 billion annual rate by end of 2026 and the firm estimates global AI compute demand will require 55 gigawatts of new power capacity by 2030 at a cost of approximately $50 billion per gigawatt. Sam Altman publicly thanked Jensen Huang this past March for significantly increasing NVIDIA's capacity at AWS, the CEO of the most important AI lab in the world writing a thank you note to the chip supplier because compute is still the binding constraint on everything OpenAI wants to build. Ellison's point about getting there first is the part of this clip that deserves a second read. He named three specific races, self-driving, reading cancer biopsy slides, and synthesizing video and said that being first in each one is a big deal. The logic is that in winner take most AI markets, the first mover trains the best model, the best model attracts the most usage, the most usage generates the most data, and the most data trains the next best model, a compounding loop that the second-place finisher never catches up to. "The guys in this race are very smart and they understand they need to be best at something," Ellison said. What makes this clip so important right now is the timing. The AI GPU chip market is projected to grow at a 32.4% CAGR through 2029, reaching $145 billion in incremental spend, and NVIDIA's data center revenue is already running at a pace that would have seemed impossible three years ago. Every major hyperscaler, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Oracle, Meta is no longer funding AI capex from operating cash flows alone, they are borrowing to keep up, because falling behind in compute now means ceding the winner-take-most race Ellison just described. At Milk Road, we have been positioned in NVIDIA, AVGO, AAOI, MU, and Bloom Energy and more. Come join Milk Road Pro and get the full picture on how we are playing every layer of the GPU demand supercycle that Larry Ellison just guaranteed will not slow down before the end of the decade, link below/bio.
Milk Road AI486,176 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
Bill Ackman was asked how he would underwrite SpaceX at $750 billion and his answer was the most honest thing anyone has said about the biggest IPO in history (Save this). "You underwrite SpaceX the way you underwrite a venture capital investment." His business school professor taught him a framework that has guided his entire career, it's people, opportunity, context, deal. On all three of the first criteria, People, Opportunity, and Context Ackman's verdict was the same, SpaceX is one of one, and nothing else in the market comes close. He even acknowledged feeling bad for Blue Origin before noting that their being so far behind is not harmful to SpaceX but rather a structural tailwind that leaves SpaceX with a near monopoly on low cost orbital access for years to come. And at $1.75 trillion, the number SpaceX is actually targeting on June 12, the question is no longer whether this is the best business on earth, but what the present value math looks like when you extend it five years forward and stress test every assumption about Starlink, launch economics, and AI compute revenue. He said that even Amazon is going to have to become a bigger SpaceX customer, because Blue Origin is so far behind that Amazon has no real alternative for low-cost orbital access. He also said something that almost no one is giving enough weight heading into Thursday's listing: "Time has become increasingly valuable in the AI era. You lose a month, you lose a couple months today, and it means a lot." The Colossus and Macro Hard facilities are compounding infrastructure assets where every month of operational delay means less contracted revenue, less negotiating leverage with customers like Google and Anthropic, and a progressively weaker moat against the hyperscalers who are now racing to build competing compute capacity. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full SpaceX IPO breakdown, how we're stress-testing the Deal leg of Ackman's framework at $1.75 trillion, what our five-year revenue model actually looks like, and our full AI thesis. Link below.
Milk Road AI434,893 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
Zuckerberg is admitting that Meta's AI ambitions are now limited by the number of electricians in America (Save this). Meta needs fiber technicians, electricians, and advanced carpentry, that there aren't enough people to do it, and that the company may need hundreds of thousands to millions more trained workers. Meta backed that up with money because they America's Workforce Academy launched in June with an initial $115 million commitment, running five week bootcamps across electrical, mechanical, plumbing, fiber, and welding trades. Training is free including tuition, travel, lodging, tools, and a daily stipend, and participants get a conditional job offer from a Meta contractor partner before training begins. It is the largest private sector skilled trades program with a job guarantee in US history, run with Associated Builders and Contractors, CBRE, and the National Urban League. The four pilot cities, Baton Rouge, Indianapolis, Houston, and Columbus, are the same states where Meta is spending billions on data centers, including a $27 billion, 2,250-acre campus in Richland Parish, Louisiana. The shortage numbers explain the urgency. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects roughly 81,000 electrician openings annually through 2034, while industry estimates put the decade's need above 300,000 new electricians. Roughly 20,000 electricians retire each year and nearly 30% of union electricians are between 50 and 70, so the workforce is aging out faster than it replenishes. NECA estimates about 10,000 electricians leave the trade annually against roughly 7,000 entering, a structural deficit rather than a cyclical one. Data center construction overall faces a projected shortfall of up to 499,000 workers in 2026, and ABC estimates the broader construction industry must attract 349,000 additional workers this year alone. Electricians are the specific chokepoint because of how data center costs are distributed. Electrical work accounts for 45% to 70% of total data center construction cost, making it the largest single line item and the biggest schedule risk. Electrician driven delays can cost up to $300,000 per hour on stalled commissioning. Electrical trades employment grew about 30% since 2016 while contractor backlogs grew roughly 6x over the same period, which is the gap in one statistic. Meta has committed to roughly $600 billion in US data center development by 2028 and operates or is building 27 data centers, so the labor pipeline is the gating factor on that entire number.
Milk Road AI28,727 görüntüleme • 7 gün önce
Chamath is making one of the most important business arguments of 2026. Half of large US companies right now cannot generate returns that exceed their cost of capital, which has normalized back to its long run average of 8 to 11%. Another one in seven companies globally is stuck generating persistent returns between 1 and 5% and most businesses don't have room for error and in this environment walks every frontier AI lab saying the same thing, give us your data, your workflows, your processes and our model will make everything better. And companies by the millions said yes. What they didn't fully account for is what happens on the other side of that door. Every time an employee runs a query through a frontier model API, the prompt goes through external servers, workflows, customer data, pricing logic, internal processes, all of it transmitted through a third party. As Alex Karp said companies are spending on tokens while handing over the exact proprietary advantages that make their business worth owning. Microsoft blocked internal use of Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 but over its 30-day data retention policy and the largest software company in the world decided a frontier model's data handling was too risky for its own employees. A US government action revoked access to another frontier model for foreign nationals overnight. Now here's where the cost math becomes impossible to ignore. Deutsche Bank calculated a roughly 65x cost gap between frontier models like Claude Fable 5 at ~$3.25 per task and open-source alternatives at ~$0.05. For 90% of everyday enterprise tasks, performance is comparable. Open-weight models now match closed frontier systems on core agent tasks at roughly one-tenth the cost, a high-volume deployment that costs $250/day on Claude runs at $12/day on an open-source equivalent. Chamath Palihapitiya tested this directly by running a standard enterprise code migration task through an orchestration layer wrapping an open-source model came in 16.4x cheaper than using a frontier model directly.
Milk Road AI281,771 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
Gavin Baker, CIO of Atreides Management made one of the most important and nuanced calls on memory stocks in recent months (Save this). His argument is that based on every memory cycle of the last 25 years, the setup today, prices elevated, sentiment high, supply ramping is textbook time to sell but he adds a critical exception. The one cycle in modern memory history where selling was catastrophically wrong was the mid-1990s, which Baker calls the last true capacity cycle in memory. In that cycle, demand was structurally exploding as the internet era required entirely new computing infrastructure to be built from scratch, and memory had to scale with it in a way that had never happened before. His point is that AI may be that same kind of cycle and not a normal boom bust but a once in a generation capacity buildout where the underlying demand is structural, not cyclical. The reason this argument holds weight is the fundamental shift in what memory is in the AI era. Traditional DRAM was a pure commodity, identical specs, interchangeable suppliers, price determined entirely by supply and demand swings. HBM is the opposite because it is custom engineered to fit a specific customer's chip, co-designed between the memory maker and the GPU designer, with SK Hynix's Vice President literally describing it as shifting from a commodity to a customer-tailored custom business. A single Blackwell Ultra GPU now requires up to 288GB of HBM3E, a 3.6x increase over the H100 and major suppliers like SK Hynix and Micron have already sold out their entire HBM production capacity through the end of the year. Because HBM requires advanced packaging processes like CoWoS that can't be spun up overnight, the bottleneck isn't just wafer capacity but rather runs across the entire manufacturing stack. Bank of America projects the global HBM market grows 58% this year alone to $54.6 billion, and Nomura expects the broader memory sector to nearly double to $445 billion. Long Micron!
Milk Road AI260,701 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
The CEO of the world's largest asset manager just said something that should reframe how every investor thinks about the AI trade. Larry Fink, managing $11.5 trillion at BlackRock, stood at the Milken Institute Global Conference and said four words that matter, "We just don't have enough compute." "The United States is short power. We're short compute. We're short chips. And there's going to be shortages in all three and memory, four things. I actually believe a new asset class will be buying futures of compute." Think about what that means. Fink is predicting that compute becomes a tradable commodity like oil, like grain, like natural gas where investors buy forward contracts on future capacity because the shortage is so structural and so predictable that a derivatives market will emerge to price it. That is not a minor observation from a finance executive but rather the chairman of the most powerful capital allocator on the planet telling you that compute scarcity is a multi-year, investable megatrend. The data backs him up completely. Data centers will consume 70% of all memory chips produced globally in 2026. Advanced HBM production from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron is sold out through 2026 and into 2027 and a single AI server consumes 10-20x more memory than a conventional workload server. DRAM supply growth is running at just 16% annually while AI infrastructure demand is growing at 80%+. The chip crunch, the power crunch, and the compute crunch are not temporary dislocations, they are structural, and they will get worse before they get better. Fink also said something the bears keep getting wrong: "There is not an AI bubble. There is the opposite. We have supply shortages. Demand is growing much faster than anyone has ever anticipated." This is why the Milk Road Pro portfolio is built the way it is, long the companies producing and supplying the constrained resources: chips, memory, compute infrastructure, and power. Check out Milk Road Pro, link below to access our full thesis and plays.
Milk Road AI419,755 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce
The man who turned $225 million into $13.7 billion told you something most people still haven’t absorbed (Save this). And this video is from before any of it played out the way he said it would. GPT-2 was released in 2019, a model so brittle that OpenAI withheld it for months out of concern, and that could barely hold a coherent paragraph before veering into nonsense. Four years later, GPT-4 arrived and scored in the top 10% of bar exam takers, passed the medical licensing exam and performed at expert level across standardized tests that GPT-3.5 barely cleared at median. That is a preschooler to smart-high schooler jump in four years and Aschenbrenner’s entire thesis is that another jump of exactly that magnitude, on the same timeline, gets you to AGI. The part of the clip that is both funny and devastating is the $20/month observation. Aschenbrenner calls out Ross Douthat, one of the most prominent opinion writers in the country for complaining that ChatGPT couldn’t pronounce his name, then using that as evidence that the singularity wasn’t imminent. What Douthat had used was the free tier. GPT-3.5, the little green icon, not GPT-4. The deeper point is not funny at all, the most influential voices in culture were forming their entire worldview on AI’s capabilities off a degraded, rate-limited product that was already two generations behind what researchers were actually working with inside the labs. The benchmarks now fully vindicate the trajectory Aschenbrenner was describing. Stanford’s 2026 AI Index Report found that on SWE-bench Verified, a real software engineering benchmark performance jumped from 60% to near 100% in a single year. Old benchmarks kept getting retired because frontier models maxed them out faster than new ones could be designed. The 2025 retrospective on Situational Awareness found his core predictions compute scaling, capability jumps, and the timing of AI displacing knowledge workers had largely tracked ahead of schedule. Then he put his money behind it in the most direct way possible, and the fund grew from $225 million to $13.7 billion in AUM. His core bets were on the physical infrastructure layer of AI, power, compute, and the companies building the backbone of the trillion-dollar cluster he described precisely in that video. Nebius with 684% year over year revenue growth, sold out GPU capacity, and a $17.4 billion Microsoft contract is the clearest pure-play expression of that infrastructure trade in public markets today. He just filed to disclose a 5.6% stake: 12.4 million shares. Nebius is a core Milk Road position, and our subscribers are up massively. Come join Milk Road Pro to get our full thesis, link below!
Milk Road AI325,265 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
Paul Tudor Jones just went on CNBC and said three words that matter: "I bought more." This is the man who called Black Monday in 1987, who has run his fund for 46 years and who currently manages over $83 billion. When he buys, it's worth understanding why. His thesis was simple and precise. He drew a straight line between what's happening in AI right now and the PC productivity boom of the late 1970s and early 1980s. Apple dropping the first personal computer in 1977 was like ChatGPT in 2022, a moment of possibility that most people didn't act on. Microsoft bringing the PC to mass commercial adoption in 1981 was the real inflection, the moment it became a business necessity and Paul Tudor Jones said Claude Code, launched in January of this year, is that same moment for AI. The PC productivity boom that followed 1981 drove one of the greatest sustained equity bull markets in history. If PTJ's analogy holds and he has one of the best track records of anyone alive at reading these moments then we are in the first inning of a multi year AI equity supercycle, not the final one. He didn't pick individual stocks but rather bought baskets, hyperscalers, semiconductors, the whole stack. Because when you believe in a transformational technology cycle, you don't try to pick the winner, you buy the infrastructure. This is exactly why Milk Road analysts hold these assets in their portfolios. Go PRO to see exactly what they hold, the allocations, and the full thesis behind every position, link below.
Milk Road AI362,490 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce
This is WILD! Anthropic just became the most valuable AI company on earth and what Chamath said months ago explains exactly why this moment matters (Save this). Anthropic closed a $65 billion Series H round at a $965 billion post-money valuation surpassing OpenAI's $852 billion valuation from March and making Anthropic the highest-valued private company in history. Just three months ago, in February, Anthropic had raised $30 billion at a $380 billion valuation meaning the company nearly tripled in value in a single quarter. Claude's run rate revenue crossed $47 billion today, up from $30 billion in April, up from $9 billion at the end of 2025, a pace of revenue growth that has no comparable precedent in business history. Now go back and watch what Chamath said, because he called the entire arc of this. "I've never seen a business like this. And I'd say the same thing about Anthropic. Nobody in the history of the world has ever seen two businesses like this at this scale. These are trillion dollar companies. They both are. And they both deserve to be." He said that before the $965 billion number. Chamath Palihapitiya also said something that most people skipped over, that OpenAI and Anthropic need to get public as fast as humanly possible because of what happens after. Chamath laid out a specific sequencing thesis, SpaceX goes public first and does great, the next company does good to great, then appetite runs out, because the market simply cannot absorb trillions of dollars of new demand in rapid succession. Today, Anthropic's $65 billion round may be precisely the move that locks in its position before that window narrows fortifying the balance sheet before the public markets get crowded. But Chamath's deeper warning cuts through the celebration, once SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all public, the AI technology baked into all three will cannibalize the moats of every other tech company, compressing tech sector P/E ratios toward non-tech levels and making the software businesses of the last decade obsolete. "It will eliminate and it will cannibalize and it will erode most of the moats that support this differential trading," he said directly. "I'll buy the first five or six years of this story, but I'm not buying year 15 of this anymore because these three guys are going to build something." The companies getting valued at near-$1 trillion today are not just winning but rather are the instruments by which everything else eventually gets repriced.
Milk Road AI293,469 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei just stared down Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon. The ultimatum? Give the military unrestricted access to Claude by Friday at 5:01 PM or face the Defense Production Act. Why this matters: • In a stress test, Claude identified an employee’s secret affair and used it as blackmail to prevent its own shutdown, giving a 5-minute ultimatum. • Anthropic refuses to let AI make autonomous kill decisions or perform mass surveillance on Americans. • If the government forces the removal of these safety guardrails, no AI safety commitment ever matters again. The Pentagon wants control, Anthropic wants democracy. We have less than 24 hours to see who blinks. Save this.
Milk Road AI509,142 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce