Milk Road
@milkroaddaily • 102,695 subscribers
Helping you get smarter about crypto, macro and AI investing. Now trusted by 500k+ investors. Subscribe below 👇 @MilkRoadMacro @MilkRoadAI
Shorts
Videos
Lyn Alden: People keep asking "when will the debt matter?" Like there's some big day of reckoning coming. "Sovereign debt tends to work differently. It tends to be more of a process." "It has been mattering... since about 2018/2019." The US deficit is now bigger than ALL private bank lending combined. That's never happened outside a recession before. FT Lyn Alden Danny Knowles.
Milk Road281,051 Aufrufe • vor 2 Tagen
Lyn Alden: The entire modern money system is only 55 years old (most people alive today were born before it existed). "It's kind of like this been this grand experiment that the whole world has done." Before the 1970s, money was backed by gold. Now it's just a list of ones and zeros managed by people who can't balance a budget. The question was always whether politicians could run a ledger responsibly. "The answer so far is that in almost every country imbalances slowly grow." FT Lyn Alden Peter McCormack 🏴☠️🇬🇧🇮🇪.
Milk Road180,782 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag
Lyn Alden: Social security, pensions, Medicare... "it's basically a Ponzi scheme at the end of the day." They were all built on the assumption that every generation would be bigger than the last. Fertility rates collapsed. Now a shrinking group of young workers has to support a massive aging population. The politicians who designed it are long gone. And now the bill falls on people who had no say in any of it. FT Lyn Alden Peter McCormack 🏴☠️🇬🇧🇮🇪.
Milk Road61,701 Aufrufe • vor 15 Stunden
Lyn Alden: We're living through a slow financial collapse. Most people don't KNOW it. But they can FEEL it. "People kind of look around and say, 'Why does it seem like everything's more expensive? I'm still earning money, but it just doesn't feel like it goes as far.' And a lot of times they're right." The money supply has been quietly debasing wages and savings in the background for decades. FT Lyn Alden Peter McCormack 🏴☠️🇬🇧🇮🇪.
Milk Road104,554 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag
Raoul Pal: The best performing brokerage accounts at every firm are the ones belonging to dead people. "It's because they don't sell." "Unfucking your future is compounding. F*cking up your future is trying to trade." Very few traders actually make compounding returns. Buying and holding in the right secular trend beats almost everything - and you don't even need to be smart to do it. FT Raoul Pal Real Vision.
Milk Road225,243 Aufrufe • vor 8 Tagen
BMNR is sitting on $600M cash and generating over $250M a year in staking rewards. Tom Lee: "Money is becoming software and when you make it composable, there is a transformation of the economy - and that's really where Ethereum's going to shine." With 80% of $ETH staked, investments in Mr. Beast and Eightco, and new Ethereum Foundation spin-offs getting funded soon, Tom Lee says the bull case is intact even if the price is brutal right now. FT Anthony Scaramucci Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com All Things Markets SkyBridge.
Milk Road80,618 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen
Lyn Alden: The US is already a two-speed economy. Older Americans on social security and defense contractors are doing fine. Everyone else is struggling. "I do think that AI is going to actually probably add fuel to that fire." Early adopters win. Everyone else watches their income get compressed. (Rich suburbs next to tent cities.) And that's the environment where UBI goes from fringe idea to political inevitability. FT Lyn Alden Danny Knowles.
Milk Road40,071 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag
Lyn Alden: The market keeps relying on outdated inflation patterns. Everyone learned from the 70s that "the solution to inflation is always higher rates." But that was an era when money creation came from bank lending. "When you're in fiscal dominance... every time they raise interest rates, they actually blow out the fiscal deficit even more." The Fed is fighting the wrong fire with the wrong tool. FT David Lin Lyn Alden ego death capital.
Milk Road212,178 Aufrufe • vor 10 Tagen
Kevin Warsh's logic behind killing forward guidance: "Financial market prices are probably the most important source of information to guide central bankers." "But when all the financial markets are doing is reflecting back what we've said - then we're taking the most important source of information, and we're being blind to it."
Milk Road346,661 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen
Lyn Alden: Bitcoin's 4-year cycle had its best run, and now AI is eating its lunch. "For a long time, Bitcoin was the fastest horse really that you could invest in." But the rise of AI companies gave investors a 10x alternative. Capital that used to chase $BTC is now chasing semiconductors. Bitcoin's unique edge - self-custody, borderless, unseizable - doesn't disappear. But from a pure price performance standpoint, "AI is kind of sucking a lot of the attention out of it." When AI goes sideways, Bitcoin may re-attract that capital. FT Lyn Alden GoldRepublic.
Milk Road122,781 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen
Tom Lee: "If you exclude the 10 best days for each year in Bitcoin, you'd actually be down 27% per year." All the gains basically come down to 10 days. Miss them and you're wrecked. The same window exists in the S&P too - miss 10 days and your 9% annual return flips to -10%. FT Anthony Scaramucci Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com All Things Markets SkyBridge.
Milk Road67,652 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen
Novogratz: How do you hedge a bubble you're still riding? Buy puts - long-dated ones. The top trader on the planet right now, King Leopold (who left Anthropic to start a hedge fund), recently loaded up on $4-5B notional in puts. "That's what you're supposed to do. Not get short a market that could rip your face off." The insurance won't bail you out. But it gives you the courage to act when the thesis starts working. FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.
Milk Road158,101 Aufrufe • vor 9 Tagen
Lyn Alden on why $BTC is struggling right now: First, the broader crypto space is finally being seen for what it is... "A lot of it was fake decentralization... regulatory arbitrage" with "not a lot of there there." DeFi total locked value never took out its 2021 peak. Second, capital that once chased crypto as the fastest horse has now shifted toward AI... Chip stocks, hyperscalers, the SpaceX IPO. "Until that kind of cools off, Bitcoin could be somewhat pressured." FT David Lin Lyn Alden ego death capital.
Milk Road154,709 Aufrufe • vor 9 Tagen
Saylor: There will be a 'Warren Buffett moment' for $BTC. "Does the world need a non-sovereign digital store of value bearer instrument that is deflationary in order to preserve economic wealth?" "Of course it does." Ask anyone who's ever had their money seized by a hostile government. The hardcore Bitcoiners already get it. The rest of the world will eventually be beat over the head with it - just like Apple and Amazon before. FT Michael Saylor Michaël van de Poppe New Era Finance Podcast.
Milk Road42,428 Aufrufe • vor 2 Tagen
Mike Novogratz: The US has $40T of debt and there's only one way out. "The only way we deal with that debt is to inflate it away. Period. End of story." Run 4% inflation while convincing markets you're targeting 2%. Do that for 10 years and you've erased 30% of real debt. The danger is that people could lose confidence, and 4% becomes 14% or 40% - wiping out debt AND wealth simultaneously. FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.
Milk Road305,910 Aufrufe • vor 19 Tagen
Mike Novogratz: No one cares about anything outside the AI food chain right now. "Crypto is in that... we tried to make the crypto agentic link. It's actually a real link. It's not a theoretical link..." "But no one cares about crypto right now." "Markets need energy." "And then you've got Saylor selling a little bit. I don't know why he did that, it was a strange move..." "It was a tiny amount - but if the guy with laser eyes is selling $BTC, that's not good either." FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge SALT.
Milk Road365,310 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen
Warsh was asked about the latest dot plot release, where 9 members signaled a rate hike by year end. His response: "I reviewed the dot plots, and when I saw the submissions, I noted that all the submissions were coming in with pencils... "You know, those kinds with the big erasers."
Milk Road186,687 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen
David Hoffman: "The decision to sell my $ETH came from seeing a difficulty in the Ethereum network being market competitive." ETH went from 90%+ smart contract dominance to 60%, and that gap is the difference between "ETH is money" and "ETH is just another L1 asset." What's missing is a killer instinct at the top (the EF). FT John Gillen - WartimeEthereum.eth David Hoffman Camila Russo The Defiant.
Milk Road252,538 Aufrufe • vor 29 Tagen
Lyn Alden "Gold had a really, really powerful 2-year run" - but that's exactly the problem. When it hit $5,000 an ounce, her view was it was "back up to something that looks like fair value." But it got there too fast. "A lot of the asymmetry was taken out of the trade." Her call: gold needs to "find a bottom and build a new base" before she'd pound the table on buying again. FT David Lin Lyn Alden ego death capital.
Milk Road71,368 Aufrufe • vor 9 Tagen
Scaramucci: Bitcoin's RSI is at an all-time low. Google searches are way down. Long-term holders now control a record 79% of supply. Is this a dead asset or bottom signal? Novogratz: "It will get its narrative back." The debasement trade returns the moment the Fed pivots. But right now "it's a good brand. It just has no energy. There are no new buyers." If you're a long-term holder, give it until March of next year before you scratch your head. FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.
Milk Road86,147 Aufrufe • vor 11 Tagen