Jeff Walton
@PunterJeff • 63,375 subscribers
Chief Risk Officer @Strive $SATA $ASST | CEO @TNorth | @HurdleRatePod | Bitcoin Capitalist | Ex Reinsurance | Upgrade the World
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Videos
Quant Bros Episode 7.5 ⚡️ "THE $MSTR thesis & new era of Bitcoin as collateral" - Valuing & comparing top 20 equities - $MSTR Valuation thesis & framework - Bitcoin as collateral & Programmable money - Index Inclusion impact on MCap - Where we're going & future outlook Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:20 Jeff Walton background 03:03 Top 20 Equities valuation comparison 19:45 $MSTR valuation framework 23:30 NEW $MSTR valuation summary table & relativity rationalization 29:50 Bitcoin as collateral & programmable money 34:00 $QQQ Dollar flow impact on MCap 38:45 Where we are, and where we're going 40:35 $MSTR Market Cap tracking over time 43:20 Future Bitcoin Outlook & Conclusion
Jeff Walton651,197 views • 1 year ago
Thanks for the shoutout Coffeezilla Let's debate the math, Live. Name the time.
Jeff Walton62,287 views • 1 month ago
![Here's my conversation with David Hoffman of Bankless We unpack $SATA and $STRC, the landscape of Digital Credit, Strive & Strategy business model, and rebuilding the world's trust infrastructure from the ground up. Great follow up conversation to Michael Saylor joining the pod last month. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 1:59 Stretch, Risk, and Balance Sheets 5:28 Dividend Backstop Debate 8:53 Measuring Bitcoin Downside 15:25 Success as Long-Tail Risk 19:17 Common Equity as Revenue 25:57 Digital Credit’s Massive Market 29:37 Credit, Liquidity, and Yield 33:02 Banks, Trust, and Inflation 36:08 Trust Networks Rebuilt 40:26 Digital Labor and Yield 44:38 Bitcoin’s Growing Capital Base 48:36 S-Curve and Market Size 52:36 Building on Bitcoin Instruments 55:58 Transforming the Asset 59:12 Co-opetition in Bitcoin Credit 1:03:23 Low Vol for Long Holders 1:09:13 Strive Versus Strategy 1:12:38 Scaling Faster Than Strategy 1:17:30 Closing & Disclaimers](https://image.24vids.com/tw-2057521846908764404/amplify_video_thumb/2057518406396751872/img/6cApqp7LmKP2AEEC.jpg)
Here's my conversation with David Hoffman of Bankless We unpack $SATA and $STRC, the landscape of Digital Credit, Strive & Strategy business model, and rebuilding the world's trust infrastructure from the ground up. Great follow up conversation to Michael Saylor joining the pod last month. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 1:59 Stretch, Risk, and Balance Sheets 5:28 Dividend Backstop Debate 8:53 Measuring Bitcoin Downside 15:25 Success as Long-Tail Risk 19:17 Common Equity as Revenue 25:57 Digital Credit’s Massive Market 29:37 Credit, Liquidity, and Yield 33:02 Banks, Trust, and Inflation 36:08 Trust Networks Rebuilt 40:26 Digital Labor and Yield 44:38 Bitcoin’s Growing Capital Base 48:36 S-Curve and Market Size 52:36 Building on Bitcoin Instruments 55:58 Transforming the Asset 59:12 Co-opetition in Bitcoin Credit 1:03:23 Low Vol for Long Holders 1:09:13 Strive Versus Strategy 1:12:38 Scaling Faster Than Strategy 1:17:30 Closing & Disclaimers
Jeff Walton22,259 views • 20 days ago
Quant Bros Episode 10 ⚡️ Unpacking $MSTR and the Convertible Bond Market This was AN INCREDIBLE conversation with Richard Byworth ∞/21M digging into the nuances of the $MSTR Convertible Bond issuance, Product Operation & Pricing, Secondary Market Liquidity, Buyers Mentality, and Future Development of the Convertible Bonds. There are MANY LARGE SCALE realizations in this video. This is a must watch if you want to understand the nuance of the $MSTR trade, and where it can go. 00:00 Welcome 01:25 Richard Byworth ∞/21M background 06:25 Understanding Convertible Bonds (A Hybrid Product) 14:20 Unique dynamics of $MSTR's Convertible Bonds 22:58 CB Pricing Mechanisms and Market Liquidity 27:23 $MSTR Future Credit Default Swap market 29:14 Credit rating future of $MSTr convertible debt 31:20 Convertible Bond Secondary Market pricing 34:52 Depth and Appetite of Capital Pools 38:29 Leveragability of an Insurance Company Balance Sheet 41:08 Richard's view on NAV RV Trading & Expansion 44:10 Information Asymmetry of the NAV premium 49:28 Recent $MSTR 11/18/24 Convertible Bond impact on px 50:28 Convertible Bond Arb Desk Relativities
Jeff Walton371,729 views • 1 year ago
My Keynote "The Digital Transformation of Risk" at Bitcoin Asia 2025 in Hong Kong 0:00 - Intro 0:36 - The Story of Risk 6:22 - Bitcoin Backed Risk, Pioneered by Strategy & Michael Saylor 9:52 - Quantifying the risk 13:43 - The Biggest Story in all of Finance 15:37 - Risk is Evolving, humanity needs to adapt EM₿RACE THE RISK
Jeff Walton148,688 views • 9 months ago
Virtual stream with threadguy today considering "the full implications of Michael Saylor being right" I break down $STRC & $SATA from a basic level. - How'd we get here - How does this work - How to think about these instruments - How much capital can buy these? Tune in: 0:50 – Intro 1:48 – Reinsurance to Bitcoin treasury 4:56 – BTC Treasury history, post-2021 unwind 7:42 – Perpetual preferred equity launch (STRK/STRC) 10:44 – High yields (11.5–12.75%) vs. bank preferreds 13:37 – Underwriting Bitcoin, long-term 25–45% CAGR 15:21 – Backtesting the yield model; excess risk/return 19:37 – Liquidity advantage $STRC trades 100x+ more than JPM 22:43 – Targeting trillions in fixed-income capital 25:58 – Low dividend-risk probability vs. credit market 28:30 – Preferred = low-vol BTC; common = high-vol/amplified BTC 30:08 – High volume enabling ATM liquidity 36:32 – Strive lower leverage (1%) vs. Strategy (12%) 39:03 – Capital raising & maintaining credit profile 41:37 – Massive TAM (200–300T fixed income) 43:41 – Host recap: cool product, new capital access thesis
Jeff Walton44,123 views • 2 months ago
I’ve been a Balance Sheet Volatility manager my entire career (12+ years). Below is my presentation at Risk World yesterday. Focused on explaining the similarities of insurance balance sheet risk management to Bitcoin balance sheet risk management. The primary difference: Bitcoin data is more observable, easily accessible, and calculable in real time. This is a feature, not a bug. And btw, there were only about 12 people in the seats, and 2 were my own colleagues. 0:21–0:46 Background in reinsurance and risk 0:46–1:13 How this work changed his perspective on risk 1:13–1:37 Bitcoin as digital capital 1:57–2:42 Insurance, reinsurance, and volatility reduction 6:54–8:08 Turning Bitcoin volatility into a credit instrument 13:50–15:38 Risk modeling, experience rating, and Monte Carlo analysis 17:21–20:06 Monetary debasement and digital credit 20:06–24:22 Digital credit vs. catastrophe bonds
Jeff Walton19,955 views • 1 month ago
If the Bitcoin “four-year cycle” is broken, It’s broken FOREVER. The consequences of being wrong about the “four-year cycle” are simply too large. We’re talking about generational wealth reordering consequences. The 1% will be fine, the 99% will not be. Keep that in mind as the 1% slams FUD narratives down your throat. Consider the implications: $225,000 Bitcoin price, the market cap of Bitcoin would surpass all of the top pubco’s on the planet. Gold parity would be the final market cap boss to defeat. $MSTR would have $150B balance sheet, and capacity to issue another $40B - $60B in preferred equity. 2nd largest corporate treasury in the world. Pubcos holding Bitcoin around the world will climb the fiat pubco leaderboards, gathering power across the globe. Market cap weighted index funds exposure to Bitcoin will increase, multiples can and will expand. Inefficiencies will be captured and capitalized on. # of pubcos holding Bitcoin will balloon Bitcoin ETF exposure and demand will balloon. Bitcoin is a freight train approaching escape velocity. The architecture of the market has forever changed. Do not underestimate this.
Jeff Walton70,365 views • 5 months ago
Bitcoin risk is misunderstood The Basel III regulatory risk framework should reward transparency and observability, not punish it. My presentation at Strategy World yesterday focused on Basel III Risk weightings & an institutional framework for Digital Credit & Bitcoin
Jeff Walton32,904 views • 3 months ago
Digital Credit is way bigger than just markets It changes how people use money
Jeff Walton17,586 views • 1 month ago
“Bitcoin is better at being Gold than Gold is Bitcoin is better at being Fiat than Fiat is.” Was true in 2021. More true today. Bitcoin is the first store of value in human history, where its supply CAN NEVER be affected by any amount of increased demand. Focus, run the math.
Jeff Walton30,198 views • 4 months ago
What are $STRF $STRK & $STRD in 4 minutes and 6 seconds The KEY to $MSTR's preferred equity and adding Bitcoin TORQUE to the balance sheet Bitcoin collateral is TRANSFORMED into risk tranches via the corporate balance sheet Michael Saylor Strategy True North Ben Werkman Tim Kotzman The Hurdle Rate Podcast Matt Cole Natalie Brunell ⚡️
Jeff Walton61,958 views • 11 months ago
"Winter's not coming back" "You've got my company that's raising billions and billions of dollars, so the writing is on the wall, Bitcoin's moving 🟩👆🏼Higher" Prescient interview from Michael Saylor a month ago Quintuple threat ATM with the launch of $STRC. Strategy fully torqued to capitalize on all market conditions.
Jeff Walton55,527 views • 10 months ago
"What is winning? Winning is maximizing the price of $MSTR" - Michael Saylor
Jeff Walton44,935 views • 10 months ago
