Ray Dalio
@RayDalio • 2,558,765 subscribers
Official account of Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, author of #1 New York Times bestseller 'Principles,' professional mistake maker
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A big choice in life is accomplishment versus savoring life. Savoring life is taking a moment to smell the roses, enjoying a beautiful day, and making sure you have time with the people you love. Then there's the other side, which is accomplishment and impact. You have to discover for yourself where you are and how you deal with those choices. The key, and the most effective path, is where they align—when you can make your work and your passion one and the same. #RayDalio #LifePrinciples
Ray Dalio59,826 次观看 • 1 天前
Around age 20, you transition from learning in school to learning by doing. In this stage of life, success comes down to experimenting and understanding your true nature to find the path that is right for you. The goal is to align your work with your passion and what suits who you are, while keeping financial reality in mind so it remains sustainable. Gain real-world experience, acknowledge what you don't know, and keep experimenting until you find the right fit. #RayDalio #LifeAdvice #MasterClass
Ray Dalio62,926 次观看 • 2 天前
What is the impact of raising rates? The government just keeps borrowing, and everybody else gets squeezed out. For households and corporations, it really depends on whether you have the money. If you have plenty of money, you're the last to be squeezed out. But the lower 60% of the population and companies without the financial capability to borrow will feel it first. As credit becomes tighter, businesses see less activity and profits, which directly impacts stock prices. #InterestRates #Investing #RayDalio
Ray Dalio114,137 次观看 • 4 天前
I'm often asked what to pay attention to there are two big things: First, pay attention to the bond market and the cost of money, because that is the backbone to everything. Keep an eye on the Treasury yield and the spreads in relationship to that. Second, pay attention to the concentration that is existing in one thing right now: AI. Whether or not you think AI is in a bubble, you have to recognize the amount of concentration risk. There is a lot stuck on one thing for the economy and the markets. Because all of that is risky, I want to have less concentration on one thing and more diversification right now. I provide a more thorough explanation on the US bond market in my latest article. You can find it here: #BondMarket #AI #Investing #RayDalio
Ray Dalio200,905 次观看 • 9 天前
The greatest tragedy of mankind is holding an opinion in your head that is wrong. It stands in the way of so many people making decisions well and operating well with each other. It is such a tragedy because it is so easily fixed. All you have to do is put it out there and stress test it. Acknowledge the possibility of being wrong, and ask how to properly stress test that opinion. By stress testing it, you raise your probabilities of being right. The education system, and so many things in society, reward always being right. But holding onto that mindset stands in the way of taking in all the information out there that can really help you. #RayDalio #DecisionMaking #Principles
Ray Dalio87,909 次观看 • 10 天前
Yes, we are past the point of no return. When debt service payments squeeze out spending, it is like plaque in the circulatory system squeezing out the flow of blood. It is the same kind of thing, and it can be measured. We are seeing that happen right now. There is also a supply and demand issue. A budget deficit means that debt has to be sold. We can see this happening in the bond market—bonds have been a bad investment, and there is pressure on interest rates and borrowing. This dynamic is happening, but people are treating it like it hasn't happened before. They don't understand that, just like plaque in the arteries, the debt builds up and they have that exposure.
Ray Dalio516,443 次观看 • 3 个月前
After spending time in Washington, DC discussing the budget deficit with senior people on both sides of the aisle, it’s clear to me that we are unlikely to change the debt trajectory we’re on and avoid the painful consequences. While virtually everyone agrees on the need to address our debt problem in a balanced way that includes tax increases and cuts to benefits, they also agree that they cannot speak up because politics have become absolutist. We must find a solution around absolutist pledges like, ”I will not raise taxes,” or “I will not reduce benefits,” when they are desperately needed.
Ray Dalio2,400,445 次观看 • 1 年前
Over long periods of time, debts tend to rise faster than incomes, creating the long-term debt cycle. Even as people become more indebted, lenders freely extend credit because during economic booms, incomes rise, asset values soar, and the stock market thrives. People borrow more to buy financial assets, pushing prices higher and creating a bubble. So long as incomes keep rising, the debt burden stays manageable. But this cannot continue forever. Over decades, debt burdens slowly accumulate until debt repayments grow faster than incomes. This forces people to cut back on spending, causing incomes to fall and borrowing to dry up—eventually reversing the entire cycle. #RayDalio #Economy #LongTermDebtCycle #Finance
Ray Dalio98,164 次观看 • 22 天前
While Bitcoin gets a lot of attention, it hasn’t played the safe-haven role many expected. In my view, there are a few reasons why. First, Bitcoin lacks privacy. Transactions can be monitored and potentially controlled, which is why central banks aren’t looking to hold it. Second, it also has a high correlation with tech stocks. When investors get squeezed in other areas of their portfolio, they sell their Bitcoin to cover it. Third, it’s a relatively small and controllable market, whereas gold stands alone. There is only one gold. Ultimately, gold is more widely held, deeply established, and still plays a central role in the global system.
Ray Dalio763,784 次观看 • 5 个月前
Credit is the most important part of the economy—and probably the least understood. It's the biggest and most volatile part. When borrowers receive credit, they increase their spending. Because one person’s spending is another person’s income, increased spending drives the economy forward and creates a self-reinforcing pattern of economic growth. Understanding how credit works is key to understanding economic cycles. #RayDalio #Economy #Credit #Finance
Ray Dalio157,225 次观看 • 1 个月前
The holy grail of investing is knowing how to balance. When you can take equally good things where your expectation of return is equal, but because they are uncorrelated and move differently, they balance each other. That is how you can reduce your risk without reducing your returns. You have to understand that the market is a zero-sum game. The consensus is already reflected in the price, and trying to beat it is a difficult game. In fact, it is more difficult to compete and be successful in the markets than it is to compete in the Olympics. We must be humble about that. But achieving that balance so you can get a good return without losing a lot of money is everything. Most of my own money is invested in exactly that. #Investing #AssetAllocation #RiskManagement #Principles
Ray Dalio92,229 次观看 • 25 天前
Everything has happened before. Everything is repeated. But the mistake that had the biggest effect on me was in 1982. I had calculated that American banks had lent a lot of money to a bunch of countries that would not be able to pay it back. Mexico defaulted in August 1982, and while I was right about that part, I was completely wrong about the market. I thought the stock market was going to go down, but it went up because the Federal Reserve eased. I didn't just miss. I was publicly wrong and lost everything. I lost my company and all the people who worked for me—people who were like family. I was the only one left. I had to borrow $4,000 from my dad just to help pay my family bills. It was one of the most painful experiences I have ever had, but it was also one of the best. It completely changed my attitude about decision-making. It taught me to move from thinking "I'm right" to asking myself, "How do I know I'm right?" #RayDalio #Principles #Mindset #BusinessLessons
Ray Dalio132,553 次观看 • 1 个月前
In order to be successful, you have to do five things. There’s a sequence to it. 1. Have (audacious) goals. 2. Identify and don't tolerate problems. 3. Diagnose the problems to get at their root causes. 4. Design a path to fix those things. 5. Push through to results. This is what I call looping. Go for your goals, identify your problems, get to the root cause, design a path, and push through. Life is basically just doing that over and over again. If you do that, you'll make the advances. #Principles #RayDalio #PersonalGrowth
Ray Dalio363,441 次观看 • 3 个月前
Here’s the holy grail of investing: Find 15 good, uncorrelated return streams. If you look at the math of diversification, getting out to 15 uncorrelated streams allows you to reduce about 80% of your risk without reducing your return. That increases your return-to-risk ratio by a factor of five—giving you the upside without the downside. Credit: Sam Parr, Shaan Puri, and My First Million #RayDalio #Investing #Diversification #FinancialWisdom
Ray Dalio140,640 次观看 • 1 个月前
When we are in meetings, we use a tool for what we call "dotting." It allows everyone to convey what they are seeing and how each person is behaving in real time. You can look at a screen and see, in color, how people are seeing each other. You see who thinks something is the most arrogant thing, or the stupidest thing, or that you aren't being considerate. When you see that visualization in real time, you are forced to ask yourself: How do I know that I’m seeing it the right way? How do I know that I’m not the wrong one? You realize you are just one of those dots in that line and in that grid. It causes you to go above yourself and provides perspective. Once you see how everyone else is seeing the situation, it raises a fundamental question: Together, how do we know what’s best? Just because an idea is in your head doesn’t mean it’s best. To make the right decisions, we have to look past our own individual assumptions and work together to find the truth.
Ray Dalio90,732 次观看 • 28 天前
In 1971, the US ran out of money and defaulted on its debts. Now, they didn’t say it that way. But by moving away from the gold standard, money as we understood it ended. I expected the stock market to plunge, but it went on to rise nearly 25%. That surprised me. But when I looked into it, I discovered the exact same thing happened in 1933 and it had the exact same effect. Here’s why.
Ray Dalio988,472 次观看 • 11 个月前
You work your ass off to get a lot of money. But what is that money actually for? Money has no intrinsic value—it only matters if you have a clear purpose behind it. Will it get you better friends, a better marriage, or a better relationship with your kids? You better answer that question first. To me, real success isn’t about the money. Success is knowing your nature, finding the best path through that nature, and being able to look back and say, "That was the life I wanted to have." Credit: Sam Parr, Shaan Puri, and My First Million #RayDalio #DefinitionOfSuccess #MoneyAndPurpose #Mindset
Ray Dalio148,456 次观看 • 1 个月前
It's now happening. The existing fiat monetary order, the domestic political order, and the international geopolitical order are all breaking down, so we are at the brink of wars. It all is happening because of the Big Cycle that is driven by the five big forces I've described repeatedly and laid out in detail in my book and Youtube video titled Principles for Dealing with The Changing World Order. You can find the video linked in the comments below.
Ray Dalio743,285 次观看 • 9 个月前
Productivity matters most in the long run, but credit matters most in the short run. This is because productivity growth doesn't fluctuate much, but debt does—allowing us to consume more than we produce when we acquire it, and forcing us to consume less when we have to pay it back.
Ray Dalio90,761 次观看 • 1 个月前
This happens as long-term rates rise relative to short-term rates. Though they try to hold short rates down, long rates are climbing, a trend we are already seeing. We are also seeing a weakening dollar and movements in gold. As rates rise, it starts to affect the stock market. With bonds dropping and stocks rising, the prospective returns of stocks are now low compared to bonds, translating into broader stock market pressure. This classic dynamic creates a stagflationary environment that the Federal Reserve struggles to manage. With current stagflation, the Fed wrestles with whether to tighten or ease. In an economy with vast wealth disparity, the financial impact differs drastically depending on whether you own stocks, which carries huge political implications. #Stagflation #Macroeconomics #FederalReserve #StockMarket
Ray Dalio136,646 次观看 • 1 个月前