Stephen Koukoulas
@TheKouk • 67,094 subscribers
Federal Treasury, Head of Global Strategy TD London, Advisor to PM, punter. Speaker. MD Market Economics.
Videos
Inflation free-fall confirmed. Annual inflation 5.6% in year to May, down a whopping 2.8ppts since Dec 2022. In 1st 5 months of 2023, inflation is 1.2%, 0.24% per month; an annualised rate under 3%. Target hit. RBA has made a horrible error with recent hikes. My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas202,269 Aufrufe • vor 3 Jahren
Inflation in free fall: from 8.4% to 4.9% in 10 months. Inflation -0.3% in October and is set to fall to 3% by year end, especially as petrol prices feed into the data and some large increases in late 2022 drop out of the run rate. RBA looking very, very silly My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas122,567 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren
The house price fall is coming to an end. As expected. Demand is booming from massive population growth & there is limited supply. Corelogic prices down a puny 0.1% in February: PropTrack prices registered a 0.2% rise. Both detected Sydney prices on the up. My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas141,241 Aufrufe • vor 3 Jahren
I was nursing a black eye given to me by the RBA in recent months. Frozen peas easing the pain. Then I saw the dreadful GDP result, weak real unit labour costs & I think it's Dr Lowe who'll need the peas more than me given the policy errors he continues to make My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas117,453 Aufrufe • vor 3 Jahren
Don't believe the rubbish you may from snakeoil sales people who claim "Australians should be the richest people in the world". Guess what? We are. Net wealth is $16.5 trillion for 27 million people. It's growing rapidly, regularly hitting new record highs . My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas65,009 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr
Horrid retail sales data - house prices now stalling. The whacky decision of the RBA to hike 3 weeks ago looks even more whacky with the new data. Throw in the sharp falls in petrol prices & the path to low inflation - in target - is all but assured in 2024 My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas72,306 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren
GDP growth a rotten 0.3%qq; a pathetic 0.8% yy. RBA needs to get its head out of its arse & its pontifications about trimmed mean, services & boogie woogie inflation & focus on growth, labour mkt, wages & actual inflation. Oppressive interest rates work My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas40,660 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr
Inflation free-fall confirmed. Based on monthly data inflation 3.4% Qtrly data 4.1%. Last quarter annualised for fun, 2.5%. Nov 2023 rate hike looks sillier today than it did then. Start date for RBA cuts tricky as always. Don't rule out March, could be May My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas52,402 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren
The tin foil hat folk are out shit-bagging the new RBA Monetary Policy Board - "it risks setting monetary policy to favour the incumbent". This view is embarrassing, contemptible. If rates were inappropriately cut, how do you think financial mkts would react? My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas32,258 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr
Updated RBA forecasts: GDP- lower Unemployment- higher Inflation- lower Trimmed mean (haha) - lower. Dreadful - it admitted, like a 3rd rate market economist, that the outlook for policy is "data dependent". This means it will act too late to prevent weakness. My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas28,578 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr
RBA guesses saw it on hold. "most recent forecasts" "risks to inflation appear" "demand still appears" "central projection" "a risk" "uncertainties" "uncertainty" "it will be some time yet" Facts are screaming interest rate cuts; RBA guess was says on hold. My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas18,403 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr
Corelogic data: drop in house prices in intensifying in MEL & SYD; prices flat in BRI: prices in boom cities PER & ADE are slowing. Supply is up; demand down as immigration falls. Big question for 2025 is the extent of the falls: -5%? Or more worrying -10%? My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas16,973 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr
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