Stephen Koukoulas
@TheKouk • 65,560 subscribers
Federal Treasury, Head of Global Strategy TD London, Advisor to PM, punter. Speaker. MD Market Economics.
Videos
Inflation free-fall confirmed. Annual inflation 5.6% in year to May, down a whopping 2.8ppts since Dec 2022. In 1st 5 months of 2023, inflation is 1.2%, 0.24% per month; an annualised rate under 3%. Target hit. RBA has made a horrible error with recent hikes. My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas202,259 views • 3 years ago
Inflation in free fall: from 8.4% to 4.9% in 10 months. Inflation -0.3% in October and is set to fall to 3% by year end, especially as petrol prices feed into the data and some large increases in late 2022 drop out of the run rate. RBA looking very, very silly My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas122,564 views • 2 years ago
The house price fall is coming to an end. As expected. Demand is booming from massive population growth & there is limited supply. Corelogic prices down a puny 0.1% in February: PropTrack prices registered a 0.2% rise. Both detected Sydney prices on the up. My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas141,233 views • 3 years ago
Good news. Annual inflation 2.1% in October, now 3 straight months in the target band. Yay! The inflation battle has been won. Focus of policy should be growth & jobs from the looming tariff war & weakness being driven by oppressive monetary policy from RBA. My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas73,687 views • 1 year ago
I was nursing a black eye given to me by the RBA in recent months. Frozen peas easing the pain. Then I saw the dreadful GDP result, weak real unit labour costs & I think it's Dr Lowe who'll need the peas more than me given the policy errors he continues to make My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas117,453 views • 3 years ago
Don't believe the rubbish you may from snakeoil sales people who claim "Australians should be the richest people in the world". Guess what? We are. Net wealth is $16.5 trillion for 27 million people. It's growing rapidly, regularly hitting new record highs . My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas65,009 views • 1 year ago
Horrid retail sales data - house prices now stalling. The whacky decision of the RBA to hike 3 weeks ago looks even more whacky with the new data. Throw in the sharp falls in petrol prices & the path to low inflation - in target - is all but assured in 2024 My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas72,306 views • 2 years ago
GDP growth a rotten 0.3%qq; a pathetic 0.8% yy. RBA needs to get its head out of its arse & its pontifications about trimmed mean, services & boogie woogie inflation & focus on growth, labour mkt, wages & actual inflation. Oppressive interest rates work My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas40,660 views • 1 year ago
RBA is in the 'no rate cut camp' currently occupied by Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia, Norway, India, Brazil, Russia & Turkey. Strange bed fellows indeed. CPI next week will see inflation below 2.5%. Hard to see what the RBA is waiting for; or is it another error? My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas40,897 views • 1 year ago
Inflation free-fall confirmed. Based on monthly data inflation 3.4% Qtrly data 4.1%. Last quarter annualised for fun, 2.5%. Nov 2023 rate hike looks sillier today than it did then. Start date for RBA cuts tricky as always. Don't rule out March, could be May My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas52,402 views • 2 years ago
The tin foil hat folk are out shit-bagging the new RBA Monetary Policy Board - "it risks setting monetary policy to favour the incumbent". This view is embarrassing, contemptible. If rates were inappropriately cut, how do you think financial mkts would react? My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas32,258 views • 1 year ago
Updated RBA forecasts: GDP- lower Unemployment- higher Inflation- lower Trimmed mean (haha) - lower. Dreadful - it admitted, like a 3rd rate market economist, that the outlook for policy is "data dependent". This means it will act too late to prevent weakness. My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas28,578 views • 1 year ago
RBA guesses saw it on hold. "most recent forecasts" "risks to inflation appear" "demand still appears" "central projection" "a risk" "uncertainties" "uncertainty" "it will be some time yet" Facts are screaming interest rate cuts; RBA guess was says on hold. My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas18,403 views • 1 year ago
Corelogic data: drop in house prices in intensifying in MEL & SYD; prices flat in BRI: prices in boom cities PER & ADE are slowing. Supply is up; demand down as immigration falls. Big question for 2025 is the extent of the falls: -5%? Or more worrying -10%? My Two Minute Take
Stephen Koukoulas16,973 views • 1 year ago
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