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Abraar Karan

@AbraarKaran • 61,472 subscribers

infectious disease doctor, epidemiologist, researcher @stanford

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Anya Rossi

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Seems after initial assessment in Nebraska, passengers will have the option to isolate at home for the quarantine period. I don’t think this is realistic. While the chance is low that they would leave their home and go into the public, the chance of infecting a family member at home would be the bigger concern. This could happen even before symptoms because it can be very difficult to discern the exact second you have symptoms and likely shedding starts at least little before if I had to guess. #Hantavirus

Seems after initial assessment in Nebraska, passengers will have the option to isolate at home for the quarantine period. I don’t think this is realistic. While the chance is low that they would leave their home and go into the public, the chance of infecting a family member at home would be the bigger concern. This could happen even before symptoms because it can be very difficult to discern the exact second you have symptoms and likely shedding starts at least little before if I had to guess. #Hantavirus

147,294 views • 3 months ago

My interview on ABC7 Eyewitness News regarding the #Hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius. This will not be another covid19. But this outbreak does have concerning features, including complications now tracing those who left the ship before the outbreak was detected and traveled back to their respective countries. This is a virus with a long incubation period, nonspecific initial symptoms, and prior outbreaks have had 'superspreaders' largely driven by their contact-patterns (being in crowded settings while contagious).

My interview on ABC7 Eyewitness News regarding the #Hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius. This will not be another covid19. But this outbreak does have concerning features, including complications now tracing those who left the ship before the outbreak was detected and traveled back to their respective countries. This is a virus with a long incubation period, nonspecific initial symptoms, and prior outbreaks have had 'superspreaders' largely driven by their contact-patterns (being in crowded settings while contagious).

28,857 views • 4 months ago

Thanks to the NBC Entertainment Today Show and Savannah Guthrie for their in-depth look at the NEJM 2018-19 Andes Virus study and for interviewing me on my thoughts here. Yes, this study did show that an infectious case of #AndesVirus can transmit to 5-10 additional people in crowded social settings. Yes, it is one study but it is also a clear counter-example to the "no spread from casual contact" narrative. We should be open about what is possible even if it doesn't happen all the time or with every case. Disease transmission has many factors involved, including how much virus the person is shedding at the time. #Hantavirus

Thanks to the NBC Entertainment Today Show and Savannah Guthrie for their in-depth look at the NEJM 2018-19 Andes Virus study and for interviewing me on my thoughts here. Yes, this study did show that an infectious case of #AndesVirus can transmit to 5-10 additional people in crowded social settings. Yes, it is one study but it is also a clear counter-example to the "no spread from casual contact" narrative. We should be open about what is possible even if it doesn't happen all the time or with every case. Disease transmission has many factors involved, including how much virus the person is shedding at the time. #Hantavirus

26,172 views • 3 months ago

Spoke to Andy Mac LiveNOW from FOX — this #Hantavirus outbreak is a canary in the coal mine. We got lucky this time that this started on a cruise ship— that is why it was detected this fast. The cases clustered together in time/space. The next time, we won’t be that lucky. A future importation of #AndesVirus to a big city could be more complicated. And there are other pathogens that fit this pattern around the world (long incubation, human-human transmission, vague early symptoms). Remember that Ebola virus had only had outbreaks of 500 or less until the big one in 2014 that spread in large dense cities causing over 28500 cases and over 11k deaths

Spoke to Andy Mac LiveNOW from FOX — this #Hantavirus outbreak is a canary in the coal mine. We got lucky this time that this started on a cruise ship— that is why it was detected this fast. The cases clustered together in time/space. The next time, we won’t be that lucky. A future importation of #AndesVirus to a big city could be more complicated. And there are other pathogens that fit this pattern around the world (long incubation, human-human transmission, vague early symptoms). Remember that Ebola virus had only had outbreaks of 500 or less until the big one in 2014 that spread in large dense cities causing over 28500 cases and over 11k deaths

24,054 views • 3 months ago

Interviewed here on CNN regarding the #AndesVirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship. I bring up a slightly different perspective on the role of the cruise ship. The cruise itself likely helped us detect that an outbreak was happening at all because it allows for a clear pattern detection in a confined environment. When you have a pathogen with a long incubation period, once people start traveling, if the secondary cases are not close in space and time to the index case, it can become much harder to make the initial diagnosis and subsequent diagnoses. Furthermore, I am also surprised that there is so much variability on the approach that different countries and states are taking to quarantine. There needs to be uniformity, leaning toward the most conservative approach.

Interviewed here on CNN regarding the #AndesVirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship. I bring up a slightly different perspective on the role of the cruise ship. The cruise itself likely helped us detect that an outbreak was happening at all because it allows for a clear pattern detection in a confined environment. When you have a pathogen with a long incubation period, once people start traveling, if the secondary cases are not close in space and time to the index case, it can become much harder to make the initial diagnosis and subsequent diagnoses. Furthermore, I am also surprised that there is so much variability on the approach that different countries and states are taking to quarantine. There needs to be uniformity, leaning toward the most conservative approach.

23,329 views • 3 months ago

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