Weston Nakamura
@acrossthespread • 42,077 subscribers
Founder, Across The Spread. 🌏markets analysis via 🇯🇵/Asia lens. Former derivatives trader @ Goldman & Jefferies + original content @ RealVision & Blockworks
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Warren Buffet(‘s behavior) is screaming to me of imminent 🇯🇵BOJ yield hike Grab a tin foil hat & hear me out Buffet is/was in Tokyo on Mon & Tues, if not earlier. Why? According to WB- to meet CEOs of the big 5 🇯🇵trading houses he owns: Mitsubishi Corp Sumitomo Corp Mitsui &Co Itochu Marubeni (🇯🇵trading houses are very strange & complex mega-conglomerates, each w/ ~1,000 subsidiaries spanning a wide array of sectors from convenience stores to industrials, but by & large are commodities plays- shares move ↑&↓ accordingly w/ commods). Why the need for WB to meet 🇯🇵trading house CEOs in person? Apparently, to say “keep up the good work fellas” & to reiterate longstanding “my door is always open to do deals” & then interviews w/ Nikkei & CNBC to disclose that he upped his stake to 7.5% of each company Cool. Now- isn’t it a bit curious for this 90+ yr old billionaire to jump on a plane from Omaha → complete other side of the planet for.. that? Here’s why that’s weird Aug 2020, Berkshire disclosed 5% holdings in each of these trading houses. He funded these investments by issuing bonds in super low JPY rates at ~1% (basically free, especially when considering div yields at >2%) In other words- in late 2020, WB made a phenomenal macro trade: Short bonds / long commodities Before yields & commods skyrocketed Great trade, but a very un-Buffet-like investment style. This isn’t the bottom up fundamental analysis & single stock picking he’s famous for - as mentioned, it’s basically impossible to conduct bottom up analysis on 🇯🇵trading house conglomerates w/ thousands of subsidiaries. Going equal weight 5% across each of the 5 for broad sector exposure is admission of not being able to do genuine fundamental homework. But whatever- great trade, period That’s not the weird part What’s weird is (again), this trip to Tokyo to meet CEOs - & this is all spelled out in his own words in the clip below. Buffet hasn’t physically been to Japan for like a decade & a half. That means: No face to face meet when first acquiring initial 5% stakes - he stealthily executed those buys on the Tokyo stock exchange before disclosing. He says that at the time, he wrote letters to each of them saying he gives his word that his holdings won’t exceed 10%. A gentleman’s promise via written letters indeed signal trust in keeping his word - but a face to face meet would go a long way further. Yet, no plane ride →🇯🇵then either & since going long, shares in all 5 have only gone up- exceeding expectations as he says. So it’s not like there are problems to have to settle (like Wells Fargo) or rescuing to do (like Goldman). So, again- why in the hell did a 90+ year old, extremely satisfied shareholder “for decades more” feel the need to break a 15 year no-🇯🇵-visit streak & fly to Tokyo to meet in person, let alone with absolutely nothing of significance to do/say? Aren’t there like.. banking problems at home that he’s helping advise the US gov on? Why 🇯🇵, NOW? Well - it just so happens that this Mon was also when a brand new BOJ Governor began his tenure, after a decade of free Kuroda money that helped finance these 🇯🇵 investments, w/ some bonds maturing. WB (also in this CNBC clip) says he will once again issue debt to fund his increased investments. Could it be that the real reason for taking a full lap around the planet was to perhaps “check in” w/ the new BOJ & see if JPY borrow costs are about to jump higher? This is a guy who can get the Fed chair & Treasury Sec on the line at any time. He can very much also get access to rookie Ueda at BOJ He says he wouldn’t start buying these trading houses at current valuations- so then why averaging up? He isn’t concerned w/ share prices- he’s locking in world’s last source of cheap funding left- before rates lift Watch the clip & read the Nikkei transcript through this lens (& what does BOJ Ueda get out of this? See clip @ 4:50) Buffet sees JPY rates↑ & soon & he’s a guy who does his homework
Weston Nakamura1,000,872 görüntüleme • 3 yıl önce
"A Few Good Yen" Lex Fridman (oops, typo again)- Wex Fridman & Bank of Japan Gov Kuroda Part 3 (Pts 1 & 2 in thread👇) 1/ Meme vid in light of data revealing 🇯🇵MOF had indeed Yentervened on Oct 21, 2022. Which for 99% of mkt commentators STILL unaware, was TOP TICK in USTs/$
Weston Nakamura145,497 görüntüleme • 3 yıl önce
🇯🇵Bank of Japan meeting tomorrow - why this time is (critically) different: Bank of Japan has actually hit a limit to their JGB buying, as long end JGB yields hit record highs See clip below 👇 Watch full video “World’s Most Dangerous Market: JGBs” on YouTube
Weston Nakamura54,816 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
🇯🇵ruling LDP is undertaking a never-before-used measure to potentially remove PM Ishiba from office over next several weeks Bond markets beware as 🌎 most dangerous market heads into… who knows Scenario guide to navigate markets amidst 🇯🇵 political leadership turmoil coming
Weston Nakamura34,169 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce
Full context clip - Takaichi is quoting a famous 🇯🇵anime / manga, as Saudis are apparently also big fans Still, this is damn aggressive - in a fantastic way So to all the 🇯🇵 who will inevitably be “outraged” of this “conduct unbecoming of a 🇯🇵PM” Shut your mouth & have humor
Weston Nakamura16,426 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce
🇺🇸🇯🇵How Japan Screwed Up Dealing With Trump 🧵(1/3) Everything Trump-related, good/bad positive/negative, is viewed thru the lens of “what TRUMP did/said” While that may be justified, it cloaks anything else that is also happening Here’s how 🇺🇸🇯🇵trade deal blew up via 🇯🇵side
Weston Nakamura22,483 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce
“NKY price is WELCOMING YOU” -🇯🇵MOF Katayama / 🇺🇸Bessent (JPY/USD) Satsuki Katayama: 🇯🇵PM Takaichi’s Finance Minister Career MOF insider ↓ Elected to Upper House Became famous figure w/ big personality on media, outspoken MOF critic ↓ Back at (top of) MOF MOF hates Takaichi, whose foremost signature campaign point was “aggressive fiscal policy” (recently adding“responsibly” to the phrase). She embraces “anti-MOF” - meaning “anti-austerity” & not anti-the institution itself. That said, the bureaucracy within MOF (“🇯🇵’s best & brightest”) does have & exercise unofficial political influence based on MOF’s preferences, while still executing the top down policy - i.e. “can do this the easy way or the hard way” type of thing (this is not “deep state conspiracy” - this is just simple public reality, ask any normal 🇯🇵person about “zaimu” (MOF) & they’ll associate with some force of political power) MOF not happy when Takaichi surprisingly won LDP leadership race, & MOF highly alarmed when coming back from behind & elected PM - but, “🇯🇵best & brightest” can always throw sand in the gears of directed policy, which I’m sure was/is the plan But then PM Takaichi brings in Katayama - who loudly & publicly had supported & shares Takaichi’s policy views, & also personally knows MOF’s inner workings & systemic nuances. & is not exactly the shy, hold-back type (making Bessent seem like the “quiet” one of the 2) This appointment is Takaichi essentially signaling - I’ve hired a credible experienced veteran to oversee & execute the careful snapping of MOF’s neck. Responsibly. Btw - Katayama also knows Trump personally & was the only 🇯🇵MP to attend both Trump inaugurations ‘17 & ‘25 by 🇺🇸official invitation
Weston Nakamura16,507 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce
🇯🇵BOJ Gov Ueda finally finding his inner Kuroda as JGB yields keep surging
Weston Nakamura27,058 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
“There’s definitely leakage from the Japanese…” 🇺🇸Chief Bond Salesman Bessent on 🇺🇸UST ↔︎ 🇯🇵JGB (& 🇩🇪bund) yields In BOJ YCC phase out/termination era starting Dec’22, 10Y JGBs drove 10Y USTs In ‘25 it’s now the 🇯🇵30Y of world’s most dangerous market that’s driving the rest
Weston Nakamura14,487 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce
By the way- I can’t let this one slide.. Surveyed “economists & BOJ watchers” were unanimous in “BOJ no change” today Why? Obviously because of market turmoil Ok- so then that completely contradicts their own ridiculous narratives of “BOJ CAVED!” from Aug24 See clip👇
Weston Nakamura16,214 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
Daha fazla içerik yok.