Julians Amboko
@AmbokoJH • 81,719 subscribers
Host #BusinessRedefined & #CFOChat on @ntvkenya Research Fellow, Tax Research Centre @StrathU
Shorts
Videos
Should the taxpayer still bear the burden of proof in instances where a tax dispute with the Revenue Authority is based in pre-populated & third party data? In my submission before the National Assembly's Finance & Planning Committee on behalf of the Tax Research Centre at Strathmore University, I argue that Finance Bill 2026's proposals seeking to anchor Incomes & Expenses Validation in law will be incomplete if they do not include a proposal for the the Revenue Authority being saddled with the burden of proof in such instances. Here's why: · Finance Bill 2026 proposes to amend Sec75 of the Tax Procedures Act to provide that the Revenue Authority may use technology to pre-populate tax returns on behalf of a person required to submit or lodge a tax return · Finance Bill 2026 further proposes that a person required to submit or lodge a tax return may rely on pre-populated return generated by the Revenue Authority to file their return · Finance Bill 2026 proposes to amend Sec112 to provide that the Cabinet Secretary of the National Treasury may make Regulations for the procedure for the submission or lodging of returns based on pre-populated tax returns generated by the Revenue Authority Here's where the problem is: · In all this, Sec56(1) which provides that "In any proceedings, the burden shall be on the taxpayer to prove that a tax decision is incorrect" remains unchanged · Sec56(1) is predicated on the fact that Kenya has been running on a self-assessment based regime & the data upon which tax disputes emerges was held by the taxpayer · With Incomes & Expenses Validation & the onset of a Dual Assessment regime in Kenya, taxpayers are now exposed not just to errors of judgement & data on their part, but also errors of technology & transmission which are out of their control · Can we really still have the burden of proof lying exclusively with the taxpayer in an environment where tax compliance has shifted from a function of record keeping to one where system integration reliability is now a key factor?
Julians Amboko287,507 views • 25 days ago
On the Dangote led Refinery in East Africa: · Location will be determined following research being undertaken by Dangote. Mombasa, Lamu or Tanga are lead contenders · Project expected to cost anything between US$16.0 billion & US$20.0 billion · Kenya's newly set up National Infrastructure Fund will co-invest in the refinery, deployment not disclosed · The National Infrastructure Fund currently has US$1.0 billion (Kenya Pipeline proceeds). In another two or so months, ~ US$2.0 billion is expected (Safaricom Plc partial divestiture proceeds) · GOK believes that with ~ US$3.0 billion worth of seed capital, it can build the fund to ~ US$30.0 billion (10:1) crowd in factor · National Infrastructure Fund to invest 20.0% (~ US$300.0 Million) in the planned new Nairobi Airport
Julians Amboko181,150 views • 1 month ago
Key take outs from the President William Ruto's address this morning regarding the transport sector strike: · He has ruled out the push for repeal of all taxes & levies attached to the price of petroleum products as a relief measure to Kenyans in the wake of runaway prices · He argues that going that route will adversely impact revenue collection, expand the fiscal deficit & undermine service delivery. · He says that the reduction of VAT on petroleum product from 16.0% to 8.0% has translated into Kes 14.4 billion worth of revenue forgone by the Exchequer · He says that a total of Kes 12.45 billion was spent in pump price stabilisation during the April - May pump price cycle · The President says that in the June 15th - July 14th pump price cycle, Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority has been directed to slash to price of Diesel by Kes 10.0/litre · Transport sector stakeholders say that the strike now moves from "suspended" to "called off"
Julians Amboko124,650 views • 29 days ago
National Treasury CS, John Mbadi, says that the team that was working on simulations on the impact of PAYE bands adjustments has concluded its work & now what remains is for a decision to be taken. On May 11th (see quoted tweet) he told us initial estimates showed that PAYE bands adjustments (zero rating for < Kes 30,000 & lower rate for Kes 30,000 - Kes 50,000) would translate into a Kes 35.0 billion worth of revenue forgone by the Exchequer.
Julians Amboko64,005 views • 26 days ago
National Treasury CS, John Mbadi, has told the National Assembly's Budget & Appropriations Committee that at the moment, only that 2031 US$1.5 billion 9.75% Note presents a scenario of looming default risk for Kenya. The Note, which was floated in February 2024 as part of the liability management for the US$2.0 billion bullet maturity, has a weighted average life of 6 years, armotization kicks in starting 2029.
Julians Amboko40,858 views • 18 days ago
Two Rivers International Financial & Innovation Centre (TRIFIC SEZ) is in the market with an I-REIT seeking US$37.3 Million from both retail & institutional investors. When I sat down with Centum Investment (Centum Investment) CEO, my first question was how the instrument will manage to deliver a relatively high yield in US$. He makes the following points: · The rental cashflow from the Special Economic Zone is US$ denominated because all entities hosted there are service export facing · The 8.0% yield was a product of managing to hive off a lot of the expenses associated with structuring a REIT (expense to gross yield ratio) · The Nairobi Securities Exchange, for instance, extended a discount that allowed the I-REIT to unlock further return for the investor · All properties going into the REIT are already fully let out & therefore the investors have no exposure to occupier risk as they take on the instrument · The I-REIT also factors in a 3.0% biennial rent escalation clause which helps in propping the yield
Julians Amboko39,927 views • 18 days ago
I told Centum Investment CEO, James Mworia, that in my thinking, the US$37.3 Million I-REIT should ideally have been a restricted offer or at least target institutional player. So why the opening up to retail investors & how do they intend to mitigate secondary market liquidity risk for retail investors? Mworia makes the following points: · The design of the REIT targets the Kenyans who have hard currency deposits lying in banks fetching 3.0% - 4.0% return p.a. · Worth pointing out here that the country’s banking system closed March 2026 at Kes 1.36 trillion worth of foreign currency deposits having grown from Kes 1.24 trillion in March 2025, posting a 9.7 percent increase y/y · To address the secondary market liquidity risk, he says the issuer has partnered with Nabo Capital to set up a US$4.0 Millon (Kes 517.8 Million) liquidity pool to provide ready counter party in instances where an investor seeks exit but struggles to find a buyer
Julians Amboko33,157 views • 17 days ago
Former Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya, Micah Cheserem, reflects on the hyperinflation & FX crisis of 1992/93. He speaks about the bungled export compensation scheme & the Goldenberg scandal, the liquidity mop up that was put in place to rein in inflationary pressures & the liberalisation of the FX regime. Full recording - Credit: Central Bank of Kenya (Central Bank of Kenya)
Julians Amboko20,711 views • 11 days ago
My second submission, on behalf of the Tax Research Centre at Strathmore University, before the National Assembly's Finance & Planning Committee was on the proposal to amend Sec37E of the Tax Procedures Act & revive the tax amnesty programme. I made a few points here: · An amnesty programme is certainly welcome given the rigours taxpayers are undergoing with Incomes & Expenses validation & the fact that many well meaning Kenyans may be inadvertently caught in non-compliance errors they simply couldn't avoid · In view of bullet point 1 above, why not amend the section to provide for an amnesty programme that runs through the full financial year (i.e. has June 30th, 2027 as its sunset date as opposed to Dec 31st, 2026 as currently proposed) · Another reason for extending the amnesty programme to June 30th, 2027 is that fact that many taxpayers are still navigating what has been undeniably a far from tidy migration of ledger balances from the legacy system to iTax. Doesn't this present an opportune moment for a clean up?
Julians Amboko42,655 views • 24 days ago
I am pretty sure the President meant 13.0% when he spoke about "reducing the VAT rate to 8.0% for the next 3 months" here. Sec6(1) of the VAT Act cannot even allow a reduction to 8.0% in the first place, the cap is a 25.0% variation by the CS & 8.0% would be way off that window.
Julians Amboko98,330 views • 2 months ago
There was a significant tax administration announcement at the #TaxSymposiumKE convened by NTV Kenya's #BusinessRedefined & BusinessDaily this morning. The Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA Care) has announced relaxation of the demand for Supplier's PIN for non-eTIMS filings. Provision of the Supplier's PIN has been made optional effective May 17th. The implication here is that missing PINs will no longer bar taxpayers from claiming valid business expenses. The authority further indicates that the demand for PIN of auditor has also been done away with.
Julians Amboko50,172 views • 1 month ago
The VAT (Amendment) Bill 2026 has been signed into law this morning.
Julians Amboko72,425 views • 2 months ago
President William Ruto says there were Kenyan businesses that sought to block Amsons Group's Kes 23.5 billion (US$181.98 Million) buyout of Bamburi Plc on account of being "a Tanzanian firm". Meanwhile KCB Group's financing to Tanzanian businesses operating in both Tanzania & Kenya. Over the last two & a half years, the Group has lent US$520.0 Million to 4 businesses: · US$180.0 Million for the acquisition of a cement company · US$120.0 Million for fleet & cement company · US$100.0 Million for an entity whose nature of operations the Group CEO chose not to disclose · US$110.0 Million for a construction company
Julians Amboko50,517 views • 1 month ago
The Kenya Revenue Authority says that the 4 months of Income & Expenses Validation between January 1st & April 30th, 2026 has yielded Kes 7.8 billion from 97,000 taxpayers who are making payments for the first time on direct taxes. #TaxSymposiumKE BusinessDaily NTV Kenya #BusinessRedefined
Julians Amboko35,720 views • 1 month ago
It has emerged that in its latest mission to Kenya early this month (see quoted tweet), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) took issue with the US$/Kes exchange rate. According to the KRA Chairman, the Fund argued that the exchange rate is "too stable" & is impairing "monetary policy transmission & inflation targeting". With this in mind, the next Article IV discussions & report should be interesting. The discussions were to kick off in September. Kenya is currently scouting for a new funded program with the Fund after prematurely terminating the US$3.6 billion 4-year program in March.
Julians Amboko189,487 views • 7 months ago