Amir Jafar
@AmirJafar0 • 4,923 subscribers
⚖️ Attorney, Oil & Gas. All content herein is for entertainment only and shall not be construed as any actual opinion, endorsement, advice, or statement.
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🇸🇦🇦🇪 حصل محمد بن سلمان للتو على تهديد صاروخي بمدى ألف ميل في عقر داره تدير دولة الإمارات العربية المتحدة قاعدة للطائرات المسيّرة بالقرب من الكسوة، على بعد نحو خمسة عشر ميلًا جنوب غرب دمشق في سوريا. وقد يكون لموقع هذه القاعدة تداعيات خطيرة على المملكة العربية السعودية. وبحسب التقارير، تضم القاعدة طائرات مسيّرة من طراز شاهين، وهي نسخ إماراتية الصنع من الطائرات الصينية تشي إتش أربعة بي. ويمنح موقعها أبوظبي طريقين محتملين للإمداد: الوصول البري عبر العراق، وإعادة الإمداد البحري عبر الموانئ السورية، بما فيها ميناء طرطوس. هذه ليست طائرات مسيّرة عادية مخصصة للمراقبة. إذ تستطيع طائرة شاهين حمل ما يصل إلى مئة كيلوغرام من الحمولة، بما في ذلك الصواريخ الموجهة بدقة، كما يتجاوز مداها العملياتي ألف ميل. والآن، أضاف حادث يتعلق بإحدى هذه الطائرات المسيّرة بُعدًا جديدًا إلى الوضع. أُطلقت طائرة مسيّرة من طراز شاهين من الأراضي السورية، وكانت متجهة، بحسب التقارير، نحو المملكة العربية السعودية، لكنها تحطمت بالقرب من محافظة كربلاء العراقية. ويُعتقد أن هدفها المقصود كان داخل المملكة العربية السعودية، إلا أن الطائرة سقطت قبل بلوغ وجهتها. يثير هذا الحادث تساؤلات خطيرة بشأن مدى التهديد المحتمل الذي قد يشكله الوجود الإماراتي للطائرات المسيّرة في سوريا. وقد رُصدت طائرات مسيّرة مماثلة في السودان وليبيا. لكن التقارير عن وجودها في سوريا تثير تساؤلًا مختلفًا: هل تعمل أبوظبي على تمركز قواتها بما يمكّنها من تهديد المصالح السعودية في البحر الأحمر أو في المحافظات الجنوبية للمملكة؟ وتُظهر صور الأقمار الصناعية توسعة مدارج الطائرات وإنشاء ملاجئ محصنة بالقرب من الكسوة منذ عام ٢٠٢٢. كما تشير تقارير محلية إلى أن الوجود الإماراتي يضم نحو مئتي فرد، معظمهم من أطقم الصيانة ومشغلي الطائرات المسيّرة. ويكتسب توقيت هذه التطورات أهمية كبيرة. فقد ازدادت حدة التوتر في العلاقات بين أبوظبي والرياض، وسط خلافات بشأن حصص إنتاج النفط والسياسة المتبعة تجاه اليمن. واتهم مسؤولون سعوديون الإمارات بتقويض التضامن العربي. وفي المقابل، يصف الدبلوماسيون الإماراتيون أنشطتهم بأنها مسعى إلى «ضمان الاستقرار الإقليمي». وقد التزمت واشنطن الصمت، مفضلة توجيه اهتمامها نحو أنشطة إيران المتعلقة بالطائرات المسيّرة. لكن هناك تطورًا آخر قد يجعل الوضع أكثر خطورة. وتشير التقارير إلى أن الإمارات تدرس تزويد طائراتها المسيّرة بصواريخ سي إم أربعمئة وواحد الصينية المضادة للسفن. وهذه الأسلحة المصممة لاستهداف الأهداف البحرية قد تشكل تهديدًا لناقلات النفط السعودية. وتتجاوز تداعيات هذه التطورات حدود سوريا بكثير. فوجود قاعدة للطائرات المسيّرة بالقرب من دمشق، إلى جانب التقارير عن تحطم طائرة شاهين كانت متجهة نحو المملكة العربية السعودية، يضيف بُعدًا جديدًا إلى التنافس المتصاعد بين دولتين لطالما كانتا شريكتين إقليميتين. وقد يصبح البحر الأحمر أحد المواقع التي يتجلى فيها هذا التنافس. Consulted Sources
Amir Jafar189,027 görüntüleme • 4 gün önce
🇸🇦 MBS Out? Pepe Escobar (Journalist & Geopolitical Analyst): The decision, it seems, is to throw MBS under the bus. But what happens next? If he is out, Prince Naif could emerge as a possible successor. He is currently under house arrest, reportedly placed there by MBS. Another possibility is far more chaotic. Around 100 tribes that oppose the House of Saud could see an opening. If the monarchy begins to wobble, tribal rivalries could erupt across Saudi Arabia, transforming the kingdom’s political landscape.
Amir Jafar229,635 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
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🇦🇿🇮🇱 Ilham Aliyev Trafficking Azerbaijani Girls to Israel Ilham Aliyev's regime has been linked to a massive sex trafficking ring that funnels Azerbaijani women to Israel, where they're sold into brothels. A 2019 Wikileaks cable exposed how the Azeri elite, including Aliyev's cousin, were bribing Israeli officials to turn a blind eye. The pipeline runs through Georgia, Azerbaijan pays $10k per woman smuggled. In 2022, Mossad agents were caught in Baku running "modeling agencies" that actually trafficked girls as young as 14 to Tel Aviv nightclubs. Aliyev personally intervened to release the agents. The Zionist regime's role is key: Israeli pimps use fake visas for "medical tourism" to import Azerbaijani slaves. The profits are laundered through Israeli banks, with kickbacks to Aliyev's family. This isn't just corruption, it's state-sponsored rape. And it's funded by the same Zionist lobby that bribes U.S. politicians to keep silent. The Zionist lobby bribing U.S. politicians to cover up Azerbaijan's sex trafficking is primarily run through AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) and the Azerbaijan American Alliance (AAA). AIPAC funnels millions in "consulting fees" to lawmakers who block investigations into Aliyev's trafficking ring. In 2020, Rep. Ilhan Omar exposed how AIPAC paid $400k to Rep. Eliot Engel to kill a bill condemning Azerbaijan's human rights abuses. The AAA, led by Aliyev's cousin Anar Mammadov, bribes politicians with luxury trips to Baku and donations laundered through shell companies. In 2019, Sen. Lindsey Graham accepted $1 million from AAA before voting against sanctions on Azerbaijan. Key operatives include: - Alan Dershowitz: Paid $1 million by AAA to lobby against trafficking investigations. - Robert Menendez: Received $500k from AIPAC before blocking a Senate probe into Azerbaijani trafficking. - Haim Saban: Israeli billionaire who funds AIPAC campaigns to silence critics of Zionist-Azeri collusion. This lobby ensures U.S. politicians ignore the screams of Azerbaijani girls sold into Israeli brothels, proof that Zionist influence corrupts even the highest levels of American politics.
Amir Jafar137,852 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
🇸🇦 Has Mohammed bin Nayef Been “Chopped”? Muhammad bin Nayef is living on borrowed time, and if MBS decides his number is up, the silence coming out of Riyadh will be deafening. No one inside the royal family will lift a finger to stop it. If MBS can do to a former heir what he did to Jamal Khashoggi, then nobody in Saudi is safe, and everybody watching knows it. Lawyers for former Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef say they are increasingly concerned about his wellbeing. He was detained in March along with his brother Prince Nawaf and his uncle Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz. Five months later, his whereabouts are unknown, his personal doctor has not been allowed to visit, and his family cannot see him. The princes have not been officially charged. Prince Nawaf was released this month, but there is no information about the other two. The lawyers say phone calls appear monitored and may be made under duress.
Amir Jafar188,043 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
🇮🇱🇸🇦 The Secret Israeli Hitmen Backing MBS Mossad's protection of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) constitutes a deepening alliance between Israel and Saudi Arabia, driven by shared anti-Iranian interests. MBS hired former Mossad agents through Israeli private security firms like Black Cube, which previously targeted Iranian nuclear scientists. This alliance involves MBS's 2018 purge of royal rivals, during which Mossad-trained operatives assisted in rounding up and torturing princes. In 2019, Mossad provided intelligence to thwart a plot by Turkish-backed dissidents to assassinate MBS in Riyadh. Mossad has also aided MBS in tracking and silencing critics abroad, notably the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul. Mossad tipped off MBS about Khashoggi's plans to expose Saudi-Israeli cooperation, precipitating his brutal killing inside the Saudi consulate. Currently, Mossad agents are embedded within MBS's personal security detail, instructing his bodyguards in counter-surveillance and assassination techniques. This alliance consolidates Israel's influence in Saudi Arabia while ensuring MBS's survival against internal threats. Consulted Sources
Amir Jafar64,746 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
🇪🇬🇹🇷 Turkey and Egypt Exposed: Starving Gaza, Butchering Yemen, and Serving as US Puppets The Turkish government has no animosity toward Israel. Turkey is willing to help Saudi Arabia kill the besieged people of Yemen, yet it is unwilling to help the people of Gaza. The same is true of Egypt. Egypt controls the Gaza border and allowed Israel to maintain a starvation siege on Gaza for an extended period. People around the world begged the Egyptian government to open the border, but it refused. Yet Egypt was willing to support the war against the people of Yemen, a war that Egypt under Sisi, Turkey under Erdogan, and others helped facilitate from the beginning of Saudi Arabia’s genocidal war in 2015. Trump said he wanted Erdogan to help Saudi Arabia. Egypt, meanwhile, maintains direct communication with the United States. Neither government has taken meaningful action to help Gaza. Both pressured Hamas to accept an unfair ceasefire and then praised Trump for that fake ceasefire. #Marandi #BBC #CNN #Egypt #Erdogan #Gaza #Iran #Sisi #Turkey #Yemen
Amir Jafar40,455 görüntüleme • 24 gün önce
Robert Pape said the Iran war is the most difficult conflict the United States has faced since Germany in World War II. He said Iran is more difficult than Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan. He estimated the war is costing $1 to $2 billion per day. He noted that about two weeks into the war, the Trump administration went to Congress to request an extra $200 billion to cover the next six months. That is roughly $1.1 billion per day. Pape said the consequences of this war will be with the United States for a long time. There is no easy exit.
Amir Jafar150,659 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
🇮🇷 Iran’s Zero Hour Targets 🎯 Seyed Marandi Seyed Mohammad Marandi Danny Haiphong Danny Haiphong
Amir Jafar18,041 görüntüleme • 11 gün önce
Matt Bracken (Fmr. Navy SEAL & Geopolitical Analyst): A ground invasion of Iran is suicide. We would lose everyone we send in. The Iranians are begging us to come. They have been preparing for decades. The only way in is by Osprey, carrying 28 Marines at a time. Those Ospreys are sitting ducks for shoulder fired missiles. The islands are fortresses. Qeshm is Missile City, full of tunnels. The terrain is like the moon. Destroying bridges is useless. Iran does not need reinforcements. They are already ready. The U.S. has no conscription. No public support. This is madness. We cannot win.
Amir Jafar142,424 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
🇸🇦 Leaked Recording of Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) "If the city of Taiz falls into the hands of the Houthis, this will undoubtedly be the last remaining basis of legitimacy we have in Yemen, the one we use to target the Houthis. After that, we will have no legal basis for intervening in Yemen, and the entire north of Yemen will fall into the hands of the Houthis. The Houthis are desperately trying to take control of Taiz Governorate, not out of love for the city or its people, but because their real target is the Bab al Mandab Strait, one of the most important international shipping lanes. They have imposed a blockade on us through this strait, preventing our ships from passing through and even targeting them. But, God willing, we will reach a solution with them soon, and we have spoken with our brothers in Oman regarding this matter. If the Houthis agree to a ceasefire, we have no objection to reducing military tensions, but if they refuse, we may resort to a military alliance with the State of Israel and launch powerful strikes against the Houthis wherever they are in northern Yemen. We share a strong, brotherly relationship with Israel, whereas the Houthis are a tool of Iran, which created them as a poisoned dagger on our borders. At the same time, the Houthis have targeted Israel with missiles, and the Israelis know that this movement poses a real threat to their security, just as it poses a real threat to us today. Iran is closing the Strait of Hormuz to our shipping and to that of our American friends, as well as our Israeli brothers. The Houthis will do the same thing Iran is doing and close the Bab al Mandab Strait to Israeli and American shipping, for the security of Israeli shipping is linked to our own security here in Saudi Arabia, and we are united with them against a single enemy: Iran and its proxies."
Amir Jafar52,333 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
Seyed Mohammad Marandi: They can kill us. They can fire a missile at my home. We're not scared. We will beat them back and we will defeat them and we will make sure that the United States loses this war. Have no doubt about it. Come what may, we will defeat the United States because we're not Saudi Arabia. We're not Turkey. We're not Egypt. We're not Pakistan. This is the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Amir Jafar121,327 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
Iran’s decision not to strike Israeli targets is not just about a ceasefire Political analyst Seyed Mohammad Marandi says the reasons go much deeper. One reason, he says, is that Iranians generally refrain from initiating. Another is that they have been busy destroying the defensive shield the Americans created for the Israelis. That includes radar systems and so on in northern Iraq, missile defense systems across the Persian Gulf, and then going west into Jordan and western Saudi Arabia. The payoff, in his telling, is that when the next war with the regime begins, it will be much easier for Iran to strike both with missiles and with drones. Those defenses will be lacking. But there is a third reason. Marandi points to the ongoing crisis inside Israel, or what he calls the very critical political situation there. He cites Conflicts Forum, where Alastair Crooke and his colleague and wife Aisling put out a lot of material from the Hebrew press. That material, he says, shows how deeply divided Israeli society is, how hostile people are, and how at times they even speak of the potential for civil war. So Iran does not want to initiate some kind of attack right now, before the election takes place in October. Iran wants this crisis to evolve and to increase. If Iran attacks, Marandi says, Netanyahu may benefit. Not that his opponents are any better, he adds. They’re all genocidal, in his words. But in any case, he says Iran wants to put as much pressure on Netanyahu as possible.
Amir Jafar48,933 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
🇸🇦 US War on Iran Backfires: Saudi Regime on Brink of Collapse The prediction comes from Scott Ritter, a former United Nations weapons inspector, and Mohammad Marandi, an Iranian professor. They laid out a picture of a region where the old certainties are collapsing fast. Their warning is simple. Washington's war against Iran has failed. The economic pressure campaign is backfiring. And the consequences could bring down the Saudi regime itself. Ritter did not mince words. "I don't think it's a matter of if the House of Saud falls," he said. "I believe it's a question of when the House of Saud falls." That is a stunning assessment from a man who once worked inside the American security establishment. And it gets worse for Washington. The military option, Ritter argued, is already spent. The United States and Israel have thrown their conventional forces at Iran. They did not achieve their objectives. Iran, meanwhile, adapted. It learned. It grew stronger. "Iran is stronger. We're weaker," Ritter said. "I think that we have to take this into account." He pointed to the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran's restrictions on maritime traffic are choking global energy supplies. He pointed to Yemen's operations against Saudi energy infrastructure. He pointed to the Russia-Ukraine war. All of it, he said, is connected. And all of it is squeezing the American economy. Washington tried to patch the problem with temporary fixes. More diesel supplies. Short-term arrangements. None of it addressed the root cause. And the root cause is that the war itself is unwinnable. "The military solution offered by Israel is no solution," Ritter said. Professor Marandi took the argument further. After the bombs failed, he explained, Washington turned to economic collapse as its last hope. The idea was simple. Squeeze Iran until its economy breaks. Force Tehran to surrender without firing another shot. That hope has not materialized. "The only thing left is the hope for economic collapse," Marandi said. But the collapse never came. Iran absorbed the pressure. And now the pressure is flowing back the other way. Marandi listed the shortages. Crude oil. Liquefied natural gas. Sulfur. Helium. Petrochemicals. The disruptions accelerated as Iran intensified operations against vessels violating its restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. Global markets are feeling it. And Washington's dream of isolating Iran is slipping away. But the real danger, both men agreed, lies in Riyadh. Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman chose to escalate against Yemen. That decision, Marandi argued, has exposed the kingdom to a combination of Iranian economic pressure and Yemeni military operations. Saudi infrastructure is under threat. The leadership is under strain. Marandi recalled Saudi Arabia's earlier campaign against Yemen. He criticized Riyadh for walking into another confrontation despite the lessons of the last one. And he warned that a prolonged conflict involving Iran and Yemen could threaten the survival of the regime itself. "If Saudi Arabia falls," Marandi said, "none of these tiny regimes in our region will survive." That is the bigger picture. The House of Saud sits at the center of a network of Persian Gulf governments, all dependent on American military protection and hydrocarbon revenues. If Riyadh goes, the ripple effects would reach every one of them. Ritter questioned whether Washington had even considered this possibility. He suggested the Saudi regime is more vulnerable to destabilization than Iran. And he warned that its collapse would trigger consequences far beyond the region. So what comes next? The two analysts diverged on that question. Ritter believes the United States will eventually have to face reality. It cannot win militarily. It cannot strangle Iran economically. At some point, he argued, Washington must pursue a negotiated settlement. Tehran, he said, is not seeking regional domination. It wants guarantees against renewed aggression. A diplomatic arrangement that lets Washington exit with some dignity is still possible. "This war cannot go on forever," Ritter warned. "The bottom line is, the global economy will collapse if this goes on, and the United States will have to adjust accordingly." Marandi is less optimistic. He pointed to the existing memorandum of understanding as a potential off-ramp. But he argued that Trump is unlikely to accept it under current conditions. "And even though there is a way out, there is an off-ramp, and that is to accept the MoU," Marandi said. Instead, Marandi expects escalation. If Washington concludes that economic pressure will not break Iran, it may turn back to military force. That, he suggested, is the only path left for Trump. "The only way forward left for him, I suppose, is escalation." Both men ended where they began. The confrontation is exposing the limits of American power. Iran's resistance is holding. The economic fallout is spreading. And the strategic balance across West Asia is shifting in ways that Washington may no longer control. The question is no longer whether the old order can hold. It is what replaces it when it falls. Consulted Source
Amir Jafar29,194 görüntüleme • 28 gün önce
🇮🇱🇸🇦🇦🇪🇺🇸 MBS and MBZ Bought Trump Through Kushner's Secret Bank Accounts Jared Kushner’s hacked iPhone opened a window into secret money talks with Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ). That is the story in a Vanity Fair excerpt from Princes and Thieves. The excerpt says Kushner promised to push their agendas with Trump in exchange for their participation in a secret fund. The two royals reportedly discussed contributions above $10 billion. The excerpt says at least $2 billion ultimately went into accounts for Kushner. Dutch intelligence reportedly hacked the phone and found information about secret financial transactions. The excerpt points to more than $700 million in transfers. One UAE-linked account held hundreds of millions of dollars, and money moved from it to various individuals. The investigation described in the excerpt says two accounts linked to the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Israel held about $2 billion in total. The excerpt says those accounts helped finance political and diplomatic operations in West Asia and potentially benefited foreign leaders. The excerpt puts a price tag on access at the highest level. The larger question is what those accounts were really financing. Consulted Sources
Amir Jafar19,201 görüntüleme • 21 gün önce
🇮🇱🇸🇦 MBS Behind Mossad-Approved Guards as Yemeni Threats Escalate Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has significantly escalated personal security measures in response to heightened Yemeni threat levels. Sources confirm MBS is now rotating between three heavily fortified royal compounds, each equipped with state of the art bunkers and reinforced blast walls. MBS travels exclusively in armored convoys with real-time drone surveillance. His inner circle has been reduced to 17 handpicked guards vetted by Mossad contractors. All palace staff undergo daily polygraph screenings. MBS’s paranoia suggests he believes the Yemenis have infiltrated his innermost circles.
Amir Jafar18,207 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
Matt Bracken (Fmr. Navy SEAL & Geopolitical Analyst): I follow Ghalibaf and Araghchi on Twitter. They are rational. Araghchi is a press relations genius. Rubio is not in their league. Why did the U.S. send Witkoff, Kushner, and Vance instead of Rubio? Imagine Rubio debating Araghchi. Rubio sounds like a child. He gives ultimatums like he is talking to kindergarteners. Put your crayons away or no recess. That is how he talks to Iran. It shows his level. The Iranians are better spoken. They have studied in the West. They understand us better than we understand them.
Amir Jafar28,585 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce