Amit Segal
@AmitSegal • 92,681 subscribers
Chief political analyst, @N12News. Author, “It’s Noon in Israel” newsletter and “A Call at 4 AM” | https://t.co/52ELID0QxN
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The British need to understand: if they punish Israel, they will no longer receive security cooperation.
Amit Segal183,957 Aufrufe • vor 19 Tagen
Former hostage Eliya Cohen and massacre survivor Ziv Abud got married this evening.
Amit Segal256,317 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
I'm gonna say something a bit different from what that source told the New York Times. He said Fordo was damaged Severely but wasn't destroyed. So I'll tell you what Israel's current assessment is. First off all Natanz was completely wiped out. For Fordo and Isfahan, we're waiting on more confirmations. Not because we think something didn't work, but because it naturally takes longer for those deep underground sites. The big question now is whether Iran's nuke program just went back a few years, or if it's been totally erased. This relates to where the enriched uranium is. That uranium, enriched to 60%, is now incredibly hard for Iran to boost to the 90% needed for a bomb. Israel thinks most, if not all, of the enriched uranium was at Natanz or Isfahan. It wasn't moved, so it was there during the attack. We're now waiting For The BDA Of the Enriched uranium just like we were waiting on Muhammad Sinwar. I know he's under a tunnel and unreachable, but we'll likely know soon if he was also destroyed. This is huge news that could mean the official end of Iran's nuclear program.
Amit Segal2,394,394 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr
Last week, Tal Amselem took her family to the Sea of Galilee. Before wading in, she slipped off her three rings and asked her young daughter to carry them up the beach to her mother, sitting a few meters away, for safekeeping. They were nearly home when Tal asked for the rings back. Her mother handed her only two. The engagement ring was gone. “I thought I was going to faint,” she said. Tal is the widow of Avichai Amselem, a reservist killed in battle for Israeli territory on October 9, having rushed out to defend the country following the October 7 attacks. In tears, she called Eitan, a metal detectorist, who told her to stop crying and promised the ring would be back in her hands within the hour. She also called her uncles, who turned around and drove back to the lake. By the time they arrived, the whole beach was on its feet. Eitan put out a call, and soon around 15 detectorists had gathered. Not long after, a young man named Amir Shor, who had come with his mother and his detector, found the ring in the water. It had apparently slipped from her daughter’s hand moments after Tal handed it over. Another volunteer drove all the way from Ma’alot, over an hour away, a reservist due back on duty who’d had tickets to a show that day; his partner told him to skip the performance and go help. “Since Avichai was killed, my girls and I have been held from every direction,” Tal said. “I know that for any help I need, however small, I only have to ask and everyone comes running. What a rare people.” (Credit ינון מגל Yinon Magal)
Amit Segal100,853 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
Unofficial Hamas-affiliated channels report an attempted abduction of a senior Hamas figure in western Gaza City by opposing militia groups. After clashes broke out, Israeli aircraft reportedly intervened in the incident. Gazan sources claim Israeli shotgun shells were found at the scene of the clashes. It is possible that this was Israeli special forces or Israel-allied militia.
Amit Segal76,289 Aufrufe • vor 27 Tagen
My initial thoughts on the deal. There’s no phase two. That's clear to everyone, right? Phase two might happen someday, but it’s unrelated to what’s just been signed. The deal signed now is a hostage release deal. It doesn’t imply anything about the future. Theoretically, fantasies could come true: Emiratis and allies dismantling tunnels, an international body formed, Tony Blair governing Gaza. All this could happen in theory, but it’s not part of the current tactical negotiations. What we have now is a hostage deal, and a ceasefire while talks continue in good faith. There’s the question of course: who decides if talks are happening in good faith? Under Trump, Israel has previously said “Talks aren’t genuine or productive,” and resumed fighting. But this time, I don’t think we’ll see IDF tanks rushing back into Gaza, like what happened when the last two ceasefires ended. The big question is: Are we moving towards the Lebanese model Israel mentioned? In other words, the IDF stays beyond the international border and strikes targets from the air when it detects buildups or threats. Attempts to harm Israel are obvious. But what we’re talking about is buildup efforts, like digging more tunnels or building more arms-producing lathes. This is what Israel is aiming for. The reasonable assumption in Jerusalem is that President Trump will approve it. That’s one point. The IDF will withdraw to the 53% line. It was 57% initially, then dropped to 53% when the hostages will be freed. The talks afterwards are based on the principle of Israeli withdrawal in return for demilitarization and dismantling. Of course, we all assume that Hamas won’t disarm willingly, and the Emiratis and other international forces won’t achieve this quickly either. Now, regarding the hostage issue. I’ll admit than when I hear people say that Israel is “making peace with enemies,” I smell Oslo in the air, and the implications it carries. This isn’t peace, and these are bitter enemies, still on their knees.
Amit Segal583,119 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten
This is the outline currently under discussion between the United States and Iran. I am sharing this with caution, as it hasn’t been agreed upon yet, but based on recent developments, these are the points they have been discussing: A 15-year suspension of uranium enrichment. The United States originally demanded 20 years, while the Iranians wanted much less; they eventually settled on 15. The plan includes converting uranium into fuel, which changes its physical state and makes it harder to re-enrich. While not a simple process, this means the uranium won't necessarily leave Iran, which is a major concern for Israel. Full inspection of nuclear sites and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz are, of course, a given. The deal would also include ending the war, the withdrawal of American forces from the Gulf, and the lifting of economic sanctions. It must be said that, aside from the uranium, the lifting of sanctions is what worries Israel the most. As you recall, the strategic goal of the war was to create the conditions for the regime’s downfall. The regime was in danger of collapsing due to an economic situation that deteriorated primarily because of those sanctions; if they are lifted, the regime is strengthened. Therefore, it seems to me that the perception in Israel remains that the status quo is preferable—a state of "no war, no peace" where U.S. military forces remain on standby in the Persian Gulf. But as we have learned, this does not depend solely on Israel's desires, to put it mildly.
Amit Segal258,101 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten
It's a form of cooperation between Israel and Saudi Arabia — for now, limited to intelligence matters. The timing is almost ironic. A month ago, Saudi Arabia signed a defense alliance with Pakistan and Turkey, so it was only natural — and by the way, they were talking about the Arab world, including Iran — that they turned to the Pakistanis and to Erdogan and asked for help. That, of course, isn't happening. Apparently, under the regulations, or the terms of the agreement, the Pakistanis and Turks didn't press the issue and didn't sign off on the approval. It's not happening. So to their chagrin, the Saudis are calling Jerusalem and asking for help. And with this request comes a temptation, of course, to tell them: "Listen, figure it out on your own — or stop supporting a Palestinian state, or move toward normalization." The Israeli approach over the years — and especially since October 7 — has been that whenever there's an opportunity for cooperation, we take it. This isn't true only of Saudi Arabia; it's also true of the United Kingdom. Even as the UK wages a fierce battle against Israel through sanctions, Israel cooperates on this front. It wouldn't be the first time, let's put it this way, that Israel has worked in this arena against enemies greater than those it cooperates with.
Amit Segal24,377 Aufrufe • vor 13 Tagen
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Undercover Gideonim Unit officers capture a Tanzim operative in Balata, Nablus.
Amit Segal20,289 Aufrufe • vor 11 Tagen
Gaza flotilla activists amuse themselves on an Israeli Navy ship on their way to Israel.
Amit Segal208,006 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten
Qatar is attempting, on its own initiative, to negotiate an end to the war with Iran. Yes, according to those Western sources, if Qatar fails—and at the moment it appears it will—to end the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, then it wants—and there’s no nicer way to put it—to bribe Iran so that it won’t attack Qatar itself. The proposal included the same money Dana spoke of, but this time through a local channel: six billion dollars—allegedly held by Qatar as funds belonging to the Revolutionary Guards—in exchange for Iran halting its attacks on Qatar. Incidentally, this is an event that causes immense embarrassment both to the Qataris and to Hamas, which is based in Qatar and supported by both the Qataris and the Iranians. Let’s just mention the response of a Qatari diplomat: “Qatar has not offered any economic or other deal to Iran in exchange for stopping the attacks. Such claims are complete fabrications and represent an attempt to drive a wedge between Qatar and the United States. These efforts,” says the Qatari diplomat, “will not succeed.”
Amit Segal252,621 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten
Protests against the rule of the ayatollahs at universities in Iran.
Amit Segal244,796 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten
What is Netanyahu expected to say to the president? The main problem with the ballistic-missile story is that the Iranians have caught on to the daylight—the gap—between Israel and the United States. What happened here is that Donald Trump gave his word and then broke it. "We will not allow Iran to have nuclear weapons." But he didn’t talk about conventional weapons—the ballistic missiles that threaten Israel. They threaten Israel to such an extent that Netanyahu himself, in a video announcing to the Israeli people that he was launching Operation Nation of Lions, said that two existential threats had developed. The nuclear threat—you’ve known about for years—but also the threat of thousands of ballistic missiles. What has happened since then? The Iranians are not acting at all on the nuclear front, as far as we know. They have not even extracted the enriched material buried underground. But they are very much intensifying their experiments with ballistic missiles. Either because they think it is threatening, or because, as Netanyahu says, it is an existential threat to Israel. We also have a race between the number of their missiles and the number of our missiles—and let’s say that both countries need to recover on this issue. Let’s ask the question now, and here I don’t have an answer. When Netanyahu goes to Washington to talk to Trump about this, is he talking to him about a combined attack—which seems a bit far-fetched to me, because the Americans really have no intention of getting involved in a conventional weapons conflict anywhere in the world; otherwise they would never get out of it—or is he content to give Israel permission to attack on its own, with the U.S. providing a defensive umbrella? One. Two, it should also be said, in this context, that there is a big debate in the Israeli cabinet and at the top about whether it is possible to launch an attack every six months. You cannot—unlike the nuclear project—you cannot eliminate the Iranian ballistic threat. Is it sustainable to come every six months, eight months, and launch another round, which includes them firing at us, all the flights leaving Israel, and all the implications for the economy? There is no decision in Israel. There is no decision in the U.S. that's what they will discuss.
Amit Segal273,898 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten