Dr Andreas Krieg
@andreas_krieg • 51,559 subscribers
Author - Asso Prof @KingsCollegeLon @ComdtRCDS - Fellow @KingsMiddleEast - CEO of @MENAanalytica Interests: MENA, Gulf, Network-centric statecraft
Shorts
Videos
"Netanyahu has been quite desperate to find some wins in Lebanon against Hezbollah in a war Israel can't win militarily. None of the battlefield achievements have been translated into political end games and Israel is stuck in permacrisis and war with no end in sight. Occupying Lebanese territory is a recipe to strengthen Hezbollah in the eyes of many Lebanese as the only force able to stop Israel's encroachments on Lebanon's territory"
Dr Andreas Krieg33,720 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen
"The US is preparing to face the first naval guerilla war as Iran prepares thousands of small boats to face the might of the US Navy. Dr Andreas Krieg, a security studies specialist at KCL, explores how the IRGC decentralised it's naval forces and why the 'grey zone' is the ideal stage for Iran to cause havoc"
Dr Andreas Krieg18,022 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen
Israel’s most highly decorated soldier confirms the points made by the intelligence community and military strategic planners already: - No military way to contain Iran for months on end - No military way to open up the Strait of Hormuz - Hamas and Hezbollah we’re beaten tactically but not strategically - Israel hasn’t abandoned its mowing the lawn approach, even if the mowing has become more intense
Dr Andreas Krieg216,798 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten
"The Iranian regime is not a hierarchical system where decapitation is even “on the table”. So, even if you were to kill the Supreme Leader — or even the line of succession — which is, I think, what the Israelis are trying at the moment by taking out operational and strategic commanders across the IRGC, theocratic leaders, and political leaders, it doesn’t mean the regime is just going to collapse. The fact is, what we’ve seen since January is a complete decentralisation of the chain of command and command-and-control. So, despite this heavy attack this morning, there is no paralysis in Iran. Iran is sustaining it. They were very quick to strike back across the Gulf — escalating — and the operational tempo is still there. That shows command-and-control has been delegated down to the local level. We also see, for example, that the Basij — the major component of the IRGC that controls the public on the ground — has been on alert for quite some time and has organised itself at the local level without having to rely constantly on the main chain of command in Tehran"
Dr Andreas Krieg223,937 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten
#Qatar's PM: "It is a big sense of betrayal. Just an hour after the start of the war, Qatar and other Gulf countries have been attacked. We made clear that we were not going to take part in any wars against our neighbours...all the attacks on the Gulf countries - we never expected this from our neighbour. We have always tried to preserve a good relationship with Iran, but the justifications and pretexts they are using are completely rejected...We continue to seek de-escalation"
Dr Andreas Krieg175,181 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten
“The UAE’s future security will not be secured by louder narratives of exceptionalism, nor by the fantasy that Little Sparta can stand apart from the Gulf’s collective fate. It will be secured, if at all, by a sober recognition that all Gulf states live under the same shadow, even when they cast different ones"
Dr Andreas Krieg27,292 Aufrufe • vor 13 Tagen
"Gulf positions towards Iran are on a spectrum between Abu Dhabi on one side and Oman on the other. One side wants to get closer to Israel, the other one closer to Iran. Saudi and Qatar are trying to find a common position in the Gulf that is built on sovereignty and autonomy, rejecting the false dichotomy of either Iran or Israel."
Dr Andreas Krieg32,813 Aufrufe • vor 27 Tagen
Andreas Krieg: " Die Frage, die sich die Golfstaaten nach diesem Irankrieg fragen, ist "Kann man sich auf die USA verlassen?" Die Antwort ist "Nein". Spätestens seit dem Irankrieg letztes Jahr, ist es klar; dass die USA die Sicherheit, die sie Israel gewährleisten, nicht den Golfstaaten gewährleisten können"
Dr Andreas Krieg67,283 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten
I have been saying this since November 2023: Israel's obsession with military/technological superiority means tactical excellence but strategic drift Ronen Bergman on PBS: "After two and a half years, nothing is done. Nothing has been brought to a close. So Hamas still controls Gaza. Hezbollah is still the most important military and political power in Lebanon... Netanyahu thought that at least he would be able to shut down, to close, one of the fronts. So he also supported opening another front with Hezbollah, and Hezbollah fired back. And the Israelis suddenly got a really strong reminder that Hezbollah is still there. Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the clerical regime in Tehran. They killed the leader, but they have another Ayatollah, with a younger group around him. So nothing is done. Nothing is closed. Nothing is finished."
Dr Andreas Krieg70,298 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten
"#India is a country that doesn't want to choose sides. It does not want to be pushed into certain alignments or into a zero-sum game. And that is the sort of game Netanyahu is in. Netanyahu is a man cornered, fighting for political survival and international survival, and a man who is extremely zero-sum, extremely assertive. That does not necessarily align with Modi’s vision for India as a great power" #Israel
Dr Andreas Krieg89,789 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten
"Since October 7th, we were never asked to expel Hamas officially. We were never told to stop mediating. On the contrary—when we asked the Hamas leadership to leave Qatar...we were asked by the Biden administration at that time to bring Hamas back in order to continue mediation"
Dr Andreas Krieg201,550 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten
"What the UAE have tried to do since the Arab Spring, is building a network of networks in breakaway regions across the Arab world...put together the STC and the War in Yemen is part of that. The 'Axis of Secessionists' creates a regional order that includes the Israelis but excludes other Arabs states, the Gulf and Turkey" The rest of Inside Story here 👇 Aziz Alghashian
Dr Andreas Krieg119,230 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten
"This extraordinary networked attack in #Lebanon exploited a zero-day vulnerability physically implanted into the pager devices together with explosives. It suggests that #Hezbollah's and Iran's supply chain has been heavily infiltrated and compromised by #Israel" Defence Studies KCL
Dr Andreas Krieg388,943 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr
#Subversion and weaponized narratives are among the greatest threats to liberal civil societies Check out my new book 📚 Georgetown University Press Defence Studies KCL King's Security Studies #Psyop #infowar #disinformation #fakenews #UAE #Russia #Ukraine #China #Saudi #Cyber
Dr Andreas Krieg585,338 Aufrufe • vor 3 Jahren
"Isn't it the reality that the reason for why this fighting is still going on the brutality of the #RSF is because the #UAE finances and supports what they're doing. Without the UAE involvement, there would be no further war here. So when is the government going to turn around, notwithstanding ideas of wanting to get business contacts in the UAE, and start sanctioning Magnitsky sanctions on individuals in the UAE until they stop financing this brutal war" #Sudan #UK
Dr Andreas Krieg85,326 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten
"The Saudis have a unique moment right now to lead the region, especially at a time when many actors feel increasingly alienated by the Emirates. The UAE is the odd one out...largely because of how directly and overtly Abu Dhabi works with the Israelis. ...the mindset and strategic culture of Abu Dhabi is fundamentally different. Under pressure, they push back — they don’t fold... At some point there will probably be a summit — MBS and MBZ meeting — not soon, but further down the line. They’ll agree on certain things and shake hands, but that won’t end the underlying structural problem... The Emiratis have built such a vast network that I don’t think they necessarily realise they might need to change — and I’m not even sure they do. I think, unfortunately, they can sustain this pressure"
Dr Andreas Krieg52,542 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten
"Dr Andreas Krieg: The Iranians don’t have a lot of choice. They needed to escalate, and they needed to dictate the tempo of escalation as well, rather than remaining on the receiving end. I do think Iran is miscalculating in thinking it can pressure the Gulf states into becoming Trump’s pressure points—when in reality Trump’s pressure point at the moment is Israel"
Dr Andreas Krieg39,254 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten