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Basha Report Risk Advisory 🇺🇸 #Libya #Iraq #Syria #Iran #Yemen #Lebanon #Sudan #Gaza #Somalia #OSINT #Maritime #VEO | https://t.co/xH40lfgGo1

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A group of options traders in Gaza joking about how finance influencers on social media are surrounded by Lamborghinis, waterfront mansions, luxury vacations, and six-figure trading accounts, while they’re trading from a rooftop with slow internet, post-war destruction in the background, and accounts so small they celebrate single digit gain. Funny, self-deprecating, and unexpectedly moving. A reminder that resilience isn’t about perfect conditions. It’s about showing up anyway.

A group of options traders in Gaza joking about how finance influencers on social media are surrounded by Lamborghinis, waterfront mansions, luxury vacations, and six-figure trading accounts, while they’re trading from a rooftop with slow internet, post-war destruction in the background, and accounts so small they celebrate single digit gain. Funny, self-deprecating, and unexpectedly moving. A reminder that resilience isn’t about perfect conditions. It’s about showing up anyway.

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Breaking | After the failed attack targeting the port of Duqm, Oman, most likely Iranian drones struck oil storage tanks at the port of Salalah. At least three fuel tanks are now on fire, with thick smoke spreading across the port. The full extent of the damage is still unclear, and more tanks may have been hit. What makes this striking is the target itself. Oman has long acted as a quiet mediator between Iran and the United States, hosting indirect talks and passing messages between the two sides. Seeing Iran strike a country that has historically played this mediator role is unprecedented and shows how far the conflict is spreading across the region.

Breaking | After the failed attack targeting the port of Duqm, Oman, most likely Iranian drones struck oil storage tanks at the port of Salalah. At least three fuel tanks are now on fire, with thick smoke spreading across the port. The full extent of the damage is still unclear, and more tanks may have been hit. What makes this striking is the target itself. Oman has long acted as a quiet mediator between Iran and the United States, hosting indirect talks and passing messages between the two sides. Seeing Iran strike a country that has historically played this mediator role is unprecedented and shows how far the conflict is spreading across the region.

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Saudi-backed Yemeni قوات درع الوطن and Emergency Forces have received additional MRAPs and other supplies. Iranian-backed Houthis see these movements as preparation for a ground war. UAE-backed STC forces believe the reinforcements are aimed at them. The equipment entered through the Saudi–Yemeni Al-Wadiah border crossing, and locals filmed its arrival in Shabwah governorate.

Saudi-backed Yemeni قوات درع الوطن and Emergency Forces have received additional MRAPs and other supplies. Iranian-backed Houthis see these movements as preparation for a ground war. UAE-backed STC forces believe the reinforcements are aimed at them. The equipment entered through the Saudi–Yemeni Al-Wadiah border crossing, and locals filmed its arrival in Shabwah governorate.

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I can now confirm that Saudi Arabia وزارة الدفاع has carried out three airstrikes targeting UAE-backed المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي (STC) forces in Nuhoub base, Ghayl bin Yameen, Hadramawt, Eastern Yemen, marking an unprecedented development that pushes the situation into uncharted territory. No casualties were reported, and no equipment was targeted, indicating the strikes were intended as a strong warning to vacate the base or face further action. The critical question now is what follows: 1) Will Abu Dhabi pressure the STC to scale back and withdraw? 2) Or will the STC advance toward Al-‘Abr and the Al-Wadi’ah border crossing with Saudi Arabia? 3) Alternatively, is there still room for a diplomatic and peaceful resolution to contain the escalation and prevent further violence?

I can now confirm that Saudi Arabia وزارة الدفاع has carried out three airstrikes targeting UAE-backed المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي (STC) forces in Nuhoub base, Ghayl bin Yameen, Hadramawt, Eastern Yemen, marking an unprecedented development that pushes the situation into uncharted territory. No casualties were reported, and no equipment was targeted, indicating the strikes were intended as a strong warning to vacate the base or face further action. The critical question now is what follows: 1) Will Abu Dhabi pressure the STC to scale back and withdraw? 2) Or will the STC advance toward Al-‘Abr and the Al-Wadi’ah border crossing with Saudi Arabia? 3) Alternatively, is there still room for a diplomatic and peaceful resolution to contain the escalation and prevent further violence?

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يمكنني الآن تأكيد أن المملكة العربية السعودية وزارة الدفاع نفذت ثلاث غارات جوية استهدفت قوات المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي المدعومة من الإمارات المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي في قاعدة نُحب، غيل بن يمين، حضرموت، شرق اليمن، في تطور غير مسبوق ينقل الوضع إلى مرحلة حساسة. ولم تُسجَّل أي خسائر بشرية، كما لم يتم استهداف أي معدات عسكرية، ما يشير إلى أن الغارات جاءت على شكل رسالة تحذيرية قوية لإخلاء المعسكر أو مواجهة تصعيد لاحق. والسؤال الآن: ماذا بعد؟ ١) هل ستقوم أبوظبي بالضغط على المجلس الانتقالي للتراجع والانسحاب؟ ٢) أم أن المجلس الانتقالي سيتجه للتقدم نحو منفذ العبر ومنفذ الوديعة الحدودي مع السعودية؟ ٣) أم أن هناك ما يزال مجالًا للتوصل إلى حل دبلوماسي وسلمي يحدّ من التصعيد ويمنع اندلاع موجة جديدة من العنف؟

يمكنني الآن تأكيد أن المملكة العربية السعودية وزارة الدفاع نفذت ثلاث غارات جوية استهدفت قوات المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي المدعومة من الإمارات المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي في قاعدة نُحب، غيل بن يمين، حضرموت، شرق اليمن، في تطور غير مسبوق ينقل الوضع إلى مرحلة حساسة. ولم تُسجَّل أي خسائر بشرية، كما لم يتم استهداف أي معدات عسكرية، ما يشير إلى أن الغارات جاءت على شكل رسالة تحذيرية قوية لإخلاء المعسكر أو مواجهة تصعيد لاحق. والسؤال الآن: ماذا بعد؟ ١) هل ستقوم أبوظبي بالضغط على المجلس الانتقالي للتراجع والانسحاب؟ ٢) أم أن المجلس الانتقالي سيتجه للتقدم نحو منفذ العبر ومنفذ الوديعة الحدودي مع السعودية؟ ٣) أم أن هناك ما يزال مجالًا للتوصل إلى حل دبلوماسي وسلمي يحدّ من التصعيد ويمنع اندلاع موجة جديدة من العنف؟

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Additional videos circulating on Oromo and Ethiopian social media platforms appear to show that the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) has established an armed training camp in the no-man’s-land between Houthi-controlled Sa’dah in northwest Yemen and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. One of the fighters in the footage is seen carrying what appears to be a Saudi-issued G3A3 rifle.

Additional videos circulating on Oromo and Ethiopian social media platforms appear to show that the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) has established an armed training camp in the no-man’s-land between Houthi-controlled Sa’dah in northwest Yemen and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. One of the fighters in the footage is seen carrying what appears to be a Saudi-issued G3A3 rifle.

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UAE-funded activities are shutting down on the Yemeni island of Socotra. Circulated videos shows the dismantling of a site that was intended to host the UAE’s annual Sheikh Zayed Heritage Festival on the island. There are also reports that Emirati-linked business activities, particularly in the fisheries sector, as well as UAE-based travel agencies operating in Socotra, are closing down. These developments follow a decision by Yemen’s Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government to halt all direct maritime commercial shipping and airline traffic from the UAE to the island. To the best of my knowledge, there are currently no UAE military forces stationed on Socotra. The only foreign military presence on the island is a Saudi military task force operating alongside local forces. These local units have historically been aligned with the Southern Transitional Council المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي, but like other southern forces across South Yemen, they are now pledging loyalty to the Saudi-backed Yemeni government.

UAE-funded activities are shutting down on the Yemeni island of Socotra. Circulated videos shows the dismantling of a site that was intended to host the UAE’s annual Sheikh Zayed Heritage Festival on the island. There are also reports that Emirati-linked business activities, particularly in the fisheries sector, as well as UAE-based travel agencies operating in Socotra, are closing down. These developments follow a decision by Yemen’s Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government to halt all direct maritime commercial shipping and airline traffic from the UAE to the island. To the best of my knowledge, there are currently no UAE military forces stationed on Socotra. The only foreign military presence on the island is a Saudi military task force operating alongside local forces. These local units have historically been aligned with the Southern Transitional Council المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي, but like other southern forces across South Yemen, they are now pledging loyalty to the Saudi-backed Yemeni government.

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Former Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi @HadiPresiden passed away. In a 2017 interview with Talal Al-Haj on العربية, he recalled a warning he had made at the United Nations in 2012 about Iran’s regional ambitions. “Iran had an old strategy,” Hadi said. “The strategy was to control the Bab al-Mandab Strait and then the Strait of Hormuz. If it were able to control both waterways, it would not need to become a nuclear power. It could exert pressure on the world through these two vital gateways between East and West and achieve global influence. These were its ambitions, and I raised this issue at the United Nations.” A year before, in 2016, he echoed a similar message to قناة الجزيرة’s Murad Hashim, saying, “Iran has aspirations to control Bab al-Mandab, and to control Strait of Hormuz.”

Former Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi @HadiPresiden passed away. In a 2017 interview with Talal Al-Haj on العربية, he recalled a warning he had made at the United Nations in 2012 about Iran’s regional ambitions. “Iran had an old strategy,” Hadi said. “The strategy was to control the Bab al-Mandab Strait and then the Strait of Hormuz. If it were able to control both waterways, it would not need to become a nuclear power. It could exert pressure on the world through these two vital gateways between East and West and achieve global influence. These were its ambitions, and I raised this issue at the United Nations.” A year before, in 2016, he echoed a similar message to قناة الجزيرة’s Murad Hashim, saying, “Iran has aspirations to control Bab al-Mandab, and to control Strait of Hormuz.”

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#OnlyinYemen In Yemen, you can find people openly offering trips through remote desert routes. One man advertises travel across the deserts of Al-Jawf through Al-Yatama, starting from the Saudi-Yemeni Al-Wadiah border crossing and going all the way to the Houthi-controlled Sana’a city. He promotes this service on Instagram, TikTok, and other platforms. Also shares his phone number and highlights what he offers, including reliable internet using two Starlink connections so clients stay connected during the journey. These routes are also known to be used for smuggling.

#OnlyinYemen In Yemen, you can find people openly offering trips through remote desert routes. One man advertises travel across the deserts of Al-Jawf through Al-Yatama, starting from the Saudi-Yemeni Al-Wadiah border crossing and going all the way to the Houthi-controlled Sana’a city. He promotes this service on Instagram, TikTok, and other platforms. Also shares his phone number and highlights what he offers, including reliable internet using two Starlink connections so clients stay connected during the journey. These routes are also known to be used for smuggling.

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Anti-government and anti-Saudi chants by المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي العربي عيدروس الزُبيدي - Aidaros Alzubidi supporters in Aden in southwestern Yemen signal defiance, will this unrest escalate into riots and violence, and can they sustain this momentum or if it is a one-off outburst. Governing has never been easy, and the coming days will test both the STC’s ability to mobilize and the Saudi-backed authorities’ capacity to contain tensions without escalation or security crackdowns.

Anti-government and anti-Saudi chants by المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي العربي عيدروس الزُبيدي - Aidaros Alzubidi supporters in Aden in southwestern Yemen signal defiance, will this unrest escalate into riots and violence, and can they sustain this momentum or if it is a one-off outburst. Governing has never been easy, and the coming days will test both the STC’s ability to mobilize and the Saudi-backed authorities’ capacity to contain tensions without escalation or security crackdowns.

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So sorry Shelly. Hope you are safe. #Breaking U.S. journalist Shelly Kittleson is reported to have been kidnapped in central Baghdad, #Iraq near the Palestine Hotel on Saadoun Street. CCTV footage reportedly captured the moment of the abduction, showing an armed group carrying it out. Iraqi security forces have launched search operations and are tracking the suspects. One suspect has reportedly been arrested after a vehicle linked to the kidnappers crashed during a pursuit. Kittleson has worked for years from Baghdad, covering armed groups, US Iraq relations, and regional security for outlets including AL-MONITOR, Foreign Policy, and others.

So sorry Shelly. Hope you are safe. #Breaking U.S. journalist Shelly Kittleson is reported to have been kidnapped in central Baghdad, #Iraq near the Palestine Hotel on Saadoun Street. CCTV footage reportedly captured the moment of the abduction, showing an armed group carrying it out. Iraqi security forces have launched search operations and are tracking the suspects. One suspect has reportedly been arrested after a vehicle linked to the kidnappers crashed during a pursuit. Kittleson has worked for years from Baghdad, covering armed groups, US Iraq relations, and regional security for outlets including AL-MONITOR, Foreign Policy, and others.

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#Yemen It appears that the Saudi-backed @direalwatany National Shield Forces (NSF) are beginning to recover from the initial shock caused by the UAE-backed المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي and their military expansion into Hadramawt and Mahra in eastern Yemen. Just as the NSF’s 2nd Division took control of the 23rd Mechanized Brigade’s base in Al-Abr, the NSF under the command of Brigadier General Abdullah bin Sadiq al-Mahri has now taken over the base near the Nishtun seaport. Their presence also extends to Al-Ghaydah Airport. These three locations, where the NSF is currently deployed, hold significant strategic importance for Saudi Arabia. It seems that ongoing negotiations and new arrangements are taking shape at this time.

#Yemen It appears that the Saudi-backed @direalwatany National Shield Forces (NSF) are beginning to recover from the initial shock caused by the UAE-backed المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي and their military expansion into Hadramawt and Mahra in eastern Yemen. Just as the NSF’s 2nd Division took control of the 23rd Mechanized Brigade’s base in Al-Abr, the NSF under the command of Brigadier General Abdullah bin Sadiq al-Mahri has now taken over the base near the Nishtun seaport. Their presence also extends to Al-Ghaydah Airport. These three locations, where the NSF is currently deployed, hold significant strategic importance for Saudi Arabia. It seems that ongoing negotiations and new arrangements are taking shape at this time.

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Breaking | Saudi وزارة الدفاع RSAF warplanes are pounding the Al Zand base, south of Zabeed, Al Dhale’, southwestern Yemen, hometown of المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي’s leader عيدروس الزُبيدي - Aidaros Alzubidi. Now we know he didn’t travel to Riyadh tonight.

Breaking | Saudi وزارة الدفاع RSAF warplanes are pounding the Al Zand base, south of Zabeed, Al Dhale’, southwestern Yemen, hometown of المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي’s leader عيدروس الزُبيدي - Aidaros Alzubidi. Now we know he didn’t travel to Riyadh tonight.

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Iran strikes the FairmontHotels in Dubai, UAE

Iran strikes the FairmontHotels in Dubai, UAE

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Israeli media report that Hezbollah fired about 100 rockets and missiles from several locations across northern Israel, including Haifa. The strike happened at the same time as an Iranian attack on Israel. This marks at least the second large joint attack by Iran and Hezbollah on Israel.

Israeli media report that Hezbollah fired about 100 rockets and missiles from several locations across northern Israel, including Haifa. The strike happened at the same time as an Iranian attack on Israel. This marks at least the second large joint attack by Iran and Hezbollah on Israel.

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Gulf Oil War: U.S. airstrikes did not hit energy facilities on Iran’s Kharg Island, but Iran responded with attacks on regional oil assets. An oil tanker was struck in UAE territorial waters and a fuel storage tank was hit in Fujairah. At the same time, a fire is burning at an oil facility in Muharraq, Bahrain. Tehran appears to be focusing more on Bahrain and the UAE because both countries have normalized relations with Israel. The conflict is shifting toward economic pressure through energy infrastructure. The situation is now entering its third week and shows signs of turning into a prolonged economic confrontation.

Gulf Oil War: U.S. airstrikes did not hit energy facilities on Iran’s Kharg Island, but Iran responded with attacks on regional oil assets. An oil tanker was struck in UAE territorial waters and a fuel storage tank was hit in Fujairah. At the same time, a fire is burning at an oil facility in Muharraq, Bahrain. Tehran appears to be focusing more on Bahrain and the UAE because both countries have normalized relations with Israel. The conflict is shifting toward economic pressure through energy infrastructure. The situation is now entering its third week and shows signs of turning into a prolonged economic confrontation.

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In a phone call with Iranian President Masoud Masoud Pezeshkian, Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tarik “confirmed Oman’s neutral position.” He also expressed “Oman’s dissatisfaction and condemnation of the ongoing targeting of its territory,” and stressed that the country is taking all necessary measures to protect its security and stability. Both discussed “recent developments and the current situation in the region, along with the efforts being made to reduce tensions.” They also stressed the need to rely on “dialogue and diplomacy in order to avoid the consequences of war that could affect the security and stability of the region.”

In a phone call with Iranian President Masoud Masoud Pezeshkian, Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tarik “confirmed Oman’s neutral position.” He also expressed “Oman’s dissatisfaction and condemnation of the ongoing targeting of its territory,” and stressed that the country is taking all necessary measures to protect its security and stability. Both discussed “recent developments and the current situation in the region, along with the efforts being made to reduce tensions.” They also stressed the need to rely on “dialogue and diplomacy in order to avoid the consequences of war that could affect the security and stability of the region.”

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Mahjoub Brigade Video, Disinformation, and Verified Updates on the Death of Saif Al Islam Gaddafi Libyan media and sources close to the Gaddafi family have formally confirmed the death of Saif al Islam Gaddafi سيف الإسلام معمر القذافي following a targeted armed attack near the city of Zintan. The incident is reported to have occurred between 2:00 and 3:00 p.m. local time, though no official state statement has confirmed the exact timing. The same sources reported that Mohammed, the son of Saif's bodyguard from the Zintan Battalion, Colonel Al Ajmi Al Atiri, was wounded or killed during the incident. They also categorically denied reports claiming the killing of Colonel Al Ajmi Al Atiri, stating that such claims are false. According to a video report circulated by individuals close to the family, Saif Al Islam’s body was transferred to a rural hospital in Al Rujban, Libya, after his death. This information has not been independently verified by official authorities. Separately, the al Mahjoub Brigade released a video showing what it described as celebrations in Misrata following news of Saif Al Islam’s killing. The video circulated widely online but did not include any claim of responsibility or evidence linking the brigade to the attack itself. The al Mahjoub Brigade is a Misrata based armed group formed in 2011 that participated in major post 2011 conflicts. It is not formally affiliated with the Libyan state. Analysts note that while the brigade has influence during wartime, public reactions or celebratory messaging do not indicate operational involvement in the killing. Libyan analysts and media outlets emphasized that many individuals and factions linked to the February 17 revolution maintain longstanding grievances against the Gaddafi family and against what Saif Al Islam represented politically. Expressions of approval or celebration reflect political hostility rather than proof of participation in the attack. In parallel, viral images circulated online claiming to show Saif Al Islam’s body next to soldiers wearing Unit 444 insignia, as well as images depicting him in an intensive care unit. Libyan journalists and fact checkers confirmed that both sets of images are fake and AI generated. Unit 444 officially denied any involvement and stated that it has no connection to the incident. Security sources continue to confirm that there is no evidence of large scale military mobilization or clashes linked to the killing. Local authorities in Zintan reported no unusual troop movements or fighting in the area at the time of the incident. As of now, no group has claimed responsibility. The identities of the four attackers who disabled communications and CCTV at Saif’s residence remain unknown. The method of access and the extent of planning behind the operation have not been verified. Authorities and media outlets say investigations are ongoing and caution that information should be treated carefully until official findings are released. Based on past patterns in Libya, many observers believe the case is likely to be closed without accountability, leaving the attackers unidentified and adding another unresolved killing to the country’s long list of disappearances and unsolved cases.

Mahjoub Brigade Video, Disinformation, and Verified Updates on the Death of Saif Al Islam Gaddafi Libyan media and sources close to the Gaddafi family have formally confirmed the death of Saif al Islam Gaddafi سيف الإسلام معمر القذافي following a targeted armed attack near the city of Zintan. The incident is reported to have occurred between 2:00 and 3:00 p.m. local time, though no official state statement has confirmed the exact timing. The same sources reported that Mohammed, the son of Saif's bodyguard from the Zintan Battalion, Colonel Al Ajmi Al Atiri, was wounded or killed during the incident. They also categorically denied reports claiming the killing of Colonel Al Ajmi Al Atiri, stating that such claims are false. According to a video report circulated by individuals close to the family, Saif Al Islam’s body was transferred to a rural hospital in Al Rujban, Libya, after his death. This information has not been independently verified by official authorities. Separately, the al Mahjoub Brigade released a video showing what it described as celebrations in Misrata following news of Saif Al Islam’s killing. The video circulated widely online but did not include any claim of responsibility or evidence linking the brigade to the attack itself. The al Mahjoub Brigade is a Misrata based armed group formed in 2011 that participated in major post 2011 conflicts. It is not formally affiliated with the Libyan state. Analysts note that while the brigade has influence during wartime, public reactions or celebratory messaging do not indicate operational involvement in the killing. Libyan analysts and media outlets emphasized that many individuals and factions linked to the February 17 revolution maintain longstanding grievances against the Gaddafi family and against what Saif Al Islam represented politically. Expressions of approval or celebration reflect political hostility rather than proof of participation in the attack. In parallel, viral images circulated online claiming to show Saif Al Islam’s body next to soldiers wearing Unit 444 insignia, as well as images depicting him in an intensive care unit. Libyan journalists and fact checkers confirmed that both sets of images are fake and AI generated. Unit 444 officially denied any involvement and stated that it has no connection to the incident. Security sources continue to confirm that there is no evidence of large scale military mobilization or clashes linked to the killing. Local authorities in Zintan reported no unusual troop movements or fighting in the area at the time of the incident. As of now, no group has claimed responsibility. The identities of the four attackers who disabled communications and CCTV at Saif’s residence remain unknown. The method of access and the extent of planning behind the operation have not been verified. Authorities and media outlets say investigations are ongoing and caution that information should be treated carefully until official findings are released. Based on past patterns in Libya, many observers believe the case is likely to be closed without accountability, leaving the attackers unidentified and adding another unresolved killing to the country’s long list of disappearances and unsolved cases.

31,949 Aufrufe

The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي’s response to Saudi demands for withdrawal from Hadramawt and Al Mahra, Eastern Yemen is now unmistakable. Rather than withdrawing, the STC is openly consolidating its presence through sustained mobilization of heavy weaponry, including tanks and artillery, alongside dozens of MRAPs, APCs, and technicals. This buildup appears less like routine force movement and more like a deliberate show of defiance, signaling a rejection of Saudi pressure and an intent to impose new facts on the ground. Tough ideas ahead. We are heading to scenario five! Read my five scenarios in the Basha باشا Substack article below 👇

The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي’s response to Saudi demands for withdrawal from Hadramawt and Al Mahra, Eastern Yemen is now unmistakable. Rather than withdrawing, the STC is openly consolidating its presence through sustained mobilization of heavy weaponry, including tanks and artillery, alongside dozens of MRAPs, APCs, and technicals. This buildup appears less like routine force movement and more like a deliberate show of defiance, signaling a rejection of Saudi pressure and an intent to impose new facts on the ground. Tough ideas ahead. We are heading to scenario five! Read my five scenarios in the Basha باشا Substack article below 👇

37,221 Aufrufe

Another viral video from Yemen shows a UAE-supplied STREIT Group Streit Spartan SUT MRAP stuck in the sand dunes of Wadi A’ir during a counter-terrorism sweep conducted by Southern Transitional Council المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي forces, specifically units from the Ba Rasheed Brigade, the Counter-Terrorism Service, and the Hadrami Elite Forces.

Another viral video from Yemen shows a UAE-supplied STREIT Group Streit Spartan SUT MRAP stuck in the sand dunes of Wadi A’ir during a counter-terrorism sweep conducted by Southern Transitional Council المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي forces, specifically units from the Ba Rasheed Brigade, the Counter-Terrorism Service, and the Hadrami Elite Forces.

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