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Basha باشا

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Basha Report Risk Advisory 🇺🇸 #Libya #Iraq #Syria #Iran #Yemen #Lebanon #Sudan #Gaza #Somalia #OSINT #Maritime #VEO | https://t.co/xH40lfgGo1

Shorts

A group of options traders in Gaza joking about how finance influencers on social media are surrounded by Lamborghinis, waterfront mansions, luxury vacations, and six-figure trading accounts, while they’re trading from a rooftop with slow internet, post-war destruction in the background, and accounts so small they celebrate single digit gain. Funny, self-deprecating, and unexpectedly moving. A reminder that resilience isn’t about perfect conditions. It’s about showing up anyway.

A group of options traders in Gaza joking about how finance influencers on social media are surrounded by Lamborghinis, waterfront mansions, luxury vacations, and six-figure trading accounts, while they’re trading from a rooftop with slow internet, post-war destruction in the background, and accounts so small they celebrate single digit gain. Funny, self-deprecating, and unexpectedly moving. A reminder that resilience isn’t about perfect conditions. It’s about showing up anyway.

502,055 views

This video was recorded about 30 minutes ago on Al Fan [Art] Street in Abha. It shows normal activity, with no visible signs of disturbance. We are not seeing any open source evidence that a Houthi missile struck a structure at Abha International Airport. Most of the explosion videos circulating from Abha right now are old footage from the Yemen conflict between 2015 and 2022. We are not tracking any verified new videos showing explosions in Abha, so be careful before assuming those clips are recent.

This video was recorded about 30 minutes ago on Al Fan [Art] Street in Abha. It shows normal activity, with no visible signs of disturbance. We are not seeing any open source evidence that a Houthi missile struck a structure at Abha International Airport. Most of the explosion videos circulating from Abha right now are old footage from the Yemen conflict between 2015 and 2022. We are not tracking any verified new videos showing explosions in Abha, so be careful before assuming those clips are recent.

96,385 views

Unprecedented scenes. Iran is striking Manama, Bahrain, tonight with short-range ballistic missiles equipped with cluster munition warheads, marking a significant escalation in the conflict.

Unprecedented scenes. Iran is striking Manama, Bahrain, tonight with short-range ballistic missiles equipped with cluster munition warheads, marking a significant escalation in the conflict.

64,348 views

Breaking | After the failed attack targeting the port of Duqm, Oman, most likely Iranian drones struck oil storage tanks at the port of Salalah. At least three fuel tanks are now on fire, with thick smoke spreading across the port. The full extent of the damage is still unclear, and more tanks may have been hit. What makes this striking is the target itself. Oman has long acted as a quiet mediator between Iran and the United States, hosting indirect talks and passing messages between the two sides. Seeing Iran strike a country that has historically played this mediator role is unprecedented and shows how far the conflict is spreading across the region.

Breaking | After the failed attack targeting the port of Duqm, Oman, most likely Iranian drones struck oil storage tanks at the port of Salalah. At least three fuel tanks are now on fire, with thick smoke spreading across the port. The full extent of the damage is still unclear, and more tanks may have been hit. What makes this striking is the target itself. Oman has long acted as a quiet mediator between Iran and the United States, hosting indirect talks and passing messages between the two sides. Seeing Iran strike a country that has historically played this mediator role is unprecedented and shows how far the conflict is spreading across the region.

556,882 views

I can now confirm that Saudi Arabia وزارة الدفاع has carried out three airstrikes targeting UAE-backed المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي العربي (STC) forces in Nuhoub base, Ghayl bin Yameen, Hadramawt, Eastern Yemen, marking an unprecedented development that pushes the situation into uncharted territory. No casualties were reported, and no equipment was targeted, indicating the strikes were intended as a strong warning to vacate the base or face further action. The critical question now is what follows: 1) Will Abu Dhabi pressure the STC to scale back and withdraw? 2) Or will the STC advance toward Al-‘Abr and the Al-Wadi’ah border crossing with Saudi Arabia? 3) Alternatively, is there still room for a diplomatic and peaceful resolution to contain the escalation and prevent further violence?

I can now confirm that Saudi Arabia وزارة الدفاع has carried out three airstrikes targeting UAE-backed المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي العربي (STC) forces in Nuhoub base, Ghayl bin Yameen, Hadramawt, Eastern Yemen, marking an unprecedented development that pushes the situation into uncharted territory. No casualties were reported, and no equipment was targeted, indicating the strikes were intended as a strong warning to vacate the base or face further action. The critical question now is what follows: 1) Will Abu Dhabi pressure the STC to scale back and withdraw? 2) Or will the STC advance toward Al-‘Abr and the Al-Wadi’ah border crossing with Saudi Arabia? 3) Alternatively, is there still room for a diplomatic and peaceful resolution to contain the escalation and prevent further violence?

587,597 views

Saudi-backed Yemeni قوات درع الوطن and Emergency Forces have received additional MRAPs and other supplies. Iranian-backed Houthis see these movements as preparation for a ground war. UAE-backed STC forces believe the reinforcements are aimed at them. The equipment entered through the Saudi–Yemeni Al-Wadiah border crossing, and locals filmed its arrival in Shabwah governorate.

Saudi-backed Yemeni قوات درع الوطن and Emergency Forces have received additional MRAPs and other supplies. Iranian-backed Houthis see these movements as preparation for a ground war. UAE-backed STC forces believe the reinforcements are aimed at them. The equipment entered through the Saudi–Yemeni Al-Wadiah border crossing, and locals filmed its arrival in Shabwah governorate.

305,352 views

Additional videos circulating on Oromo and Ethiopian social media platforms appear to show that the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) has established an armed training camp in the no-man’s-land between Houthi-controlled Sa’dah in northwest Yemen and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. One of the fighters in the footage is seen carrying what appears to be a Saudi-issued G3A3 rifle.

Additional videos circulating on Oromo and Ethiopian social media platforms appear to show that the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) has established an armed training camp in the no-man’s-land between Houthi-controlled Sa’dah in northwest Yemen and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. One of the fighters in the footage is seen carrying what appears to be a Saudi-issued G3A3 rifle.

515,612 views

يمكنني الآن تأكيد أن المملكة العربية السعودية وزارة الدفاع نفذت ثلاث غارات جوية استهدفت قوات المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي المدعومة من الإمارات المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي في قاعدة نُحب، غيل بن يمين، حضرموت، شرق اليمن، في تطور غير مسبوق ينقل الوضع إلى مرحلة حساسة. ولم تُسجَّل أي خسائر بشرية، كما لم يتم استهداف أي معدات عسكرية، ما يشير إلى أن الغارات جاءت على شكل رسالة تحذيرية قوية لإخلاء المعسكر أو مواجهة تصعيد لاحق. والسؤال الآن: ماذا بعد؟ ١) هل ستقوم أبوظبي بالضغط على المجلس الانتقالي للتراجع والانسحاب؟ ٢) أم أن المجلس الانتقالي سيتجه للتقدم نحو منفذ العبر ومنفذ الوديعة الحدودي مع السعودية؟ ٣) أم أن هناك ما يزال مجالًا للتوصل إلى حل دبلوماسي وسلمي يحدّ من التصعيد ويمنع اندلاع موجة جديدة من العنف؟

يمكنني الآن تأكيد أن المملكة العربية السعودية وزارة الدفاع نفذت ثلاث غارات جوية استهدفت قوات المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي المدعومة من الإمارات المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي في قاعدة نُحب، غيل بن يمين، حضرموت، شرق اليمن، في تطور غير مسبوق ينقل الوضع إلى مرحلة حساسة. ولم تُسجَّل أي خسائر بشرية، كما لم يتم استهداف أي معدات عسكرية، ما يشير إلى أن الغارات جاءت على شكل رسالة تحذيرية قوية لإخلاء المعسكر أو مواجهة تصعيد لاحق. والسؤال الآن: ماذا بعد؟ ١) هل ستقوم أبوظبي بالضغط على المجلس الانتقالي للتراجع والانسحاب؟ ٢) أم أن المجلس الانتقالي سيتجه للتقدم نحو منفذ العبر ومنفذ الوديعة الحدودي مع السعودية؟ ٣) أم أن هناك ما يزال مجالًا للتوصل إلى حل دبلوماسي وسلمي يحدّ من التصعيد ويمنع اندلاع موجة جديدة من العنف؟

415,044 views

UAE-funded activities are shutting down on the Yemeni island of Socotra. Circulated videos shows the dismantling of a site that was intended to host the UAE’s annual Sheikh Zayed Heritage Festival on the island. There are also reports that Emirati-linked business activities, particularly in the fisheries sector, as well as UAE-based travel agencies operating in Socotra, are closing down. These developments follow a decision by Yemen’s Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government to halt all direct maritime commercial shipping and airline traffic from the UAE to the island. To the best of my knowledge, there are currently no UAE military forces stationed on Socotra. The only foreign military presence on the island is a Saudi military task force operating alongside local forces. These local units have historically been aligned with the Southern Transitional Council المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي العربي, but like other southern forces across South Yemen, they are now pledging loyalty to the Saudi-backed Yemeni government.

UAE-funded activities are shutting down on the Yemeni island of Socotra. Circulated videos shows the dismantling of a site that was intended to host the UAE’s annual Sheikh Zayed Heritage Festival on the island. There are also reports that Emirati-linked business activities, particularly in the fisheries sector, as well as UAE-based travel agencies operating in Socotra, are closing down. These developments follow a decision by Yemen’s Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government to halt all direct maritime commercial shipping and airline traffic from the UAE to the island. To the best of my knowledge, there are currently no UAE military forces stationed on Socotra. The only foreign military presence on the island is a Saudi military task force operating alongside local forces. These local units have historically been aligned with the Southern Transitional Council المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي العربي, but like other southern forces across South Yemen, they are now pledging loyalty to the Saudi-backed Yemeni government.

250,817 views

If you thought Iran's influence in Iraq had faded, take a look at this and think again. Funeral prayers were held at the Shrine of Imam Ali in Najaf for the late Supreme Leader of Iran's Islamic Revolution, Ali Khamenei, and members of his family who were also killed. Before the official funeral began, large crowds of Iraqis gathered in Najaf, filling the streets around the shrine. Footage showed heavy crowds moving toward the 20th Revolution Bridge, where the funeral procession was set to begin. Other videos showed the vehicle carrying the bodies being prepared in Najaf, as well as moments from the funeral prayers and farewell ceremony held at the Shrine of Imam Ali. The funeral procession then moved through Najaf for a final farewell, with large numbers of Iraqis lining the route before the official ceremony got underway.

If you thought Iran's influence in Iraq had faded, take a look at this and think again. Funeral prayers were held at the Shrine of Imam Ali in Najaf for the late Supreme Leader of Iran's Islamic Revolution, Ali Khamenei, and members of his family who were also killed. Before the official funeral began, large crowds of Iraqis gathered in Najaf, filling the streets around the shrine. Footage showed heavy crowds moving toward the 20th Revolution Bridge, where the funeral procession was set to begin. Other videos showed the vehicle carrying the bodies being prepared in Najaf, as well as moments from the funeral prayers and farewell ceremony held at the Shrine of Imam Ali. The funeral procession then moved through Najaf for a final farewell, with large numbers of Iraqis lining the route before the official ceremony got underway.

23,075 views

Anti-government and anti-Saudi chants by المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي العربي عيدروس الزُبيدي - Aidaros Alzubidi supporters in Aden in southwestern Yemen signal defiance, will this unrest escalate into riots and violence, and can they sustain this momentum or if it is a one-off outburst. Governing has never been easy, and the coming days will test both the STC’s ability to mobilize and the Saudi-backed authorities’ capacity to contain tensions without escalation or security crackdowns.

Anti-government and anti-Saudi chants by المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي العربي عيدروس الزُبيدي - Aidaros Alzubidi supporters in Aden in southwestern Yemen signal defiance, will this unrest escalate into riots and violence, and can they sustain this momentum or if it is a one-off outburst. Governing has never been easy, and the coming days will test both the STC’s ability to mobilize and the Saudi-backed authorities’ capacity to contain tensions without escalation or security crackdowns.

122,630 views

#OnlyinYemen In Yemen, you can find people openly offering trips through remote desert routes. One man advertises travel across the deserts of Al-Jawf through Al-Yatama, starting from the Saudi-Yemeni Al-Wadiah border crossing and going all the way to the Houthi-controlled Sana’a city. He promotes this service on Instagram, TikTok, and other platforms. Also shares his phone number and highlights what he offers, including reliable internet using two Starlink connections so clients stay connected during the journey. These routes are also known to be used for smuggling.

#OnlyinYemen In Yemen, you can find people openly offering trips through remote desert routes. One man advertises travel across the deserts of Al-Jawf through Al-Yatama, starting from the Saudi-Yemeni Al-Wadiah border crossing and going all the way to the Houthi-controlled Sana’a city. He promotes this service on Instagram, TikTok, and other platforms. Also shares his phone number and highlights what he offers, including reliable internet using two Starlink connections so clients stay connected during the journey. These routes are also known to be used for smuggling.

40,756 views

#Yemen It appears that the Saudi-backed @direalwatany National Shield Forces (NSF) are beginning to recover from the initial shock caused by the UAE-backed المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي and their military expansion into Hadramawt and Mahra in eastern Yemen. Just as the NSF’s 2nd Division took control of the 23rd Mechanized Brigade’s base in Al-Abr, the NSF under the command of Brigadier General Abdullah bin Sadiq al-Mahri has now taken over the base near the Nishtun seaport. Their presence also extends to Al-Ghaydah Airport. These three locations, where the NSF is currently deployed, hold significant strategic importance for Saudi Arabia. It seems that ongoing negotiations and new arrangements are taking shape at this time.

#Yemen It appears that the Saudi-backed @direalwatany National Shield Forces (NSF) are beginning to recover from the initial shock caused by the UAE-backed المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي and their military expansion into Hadramawt and Mahra in eastern Yemen. Just as the NSF’s 2nd Division took control of the 23rd Mechanized Brigade’s base in Al-Abr, the NSF under the command of Brigadier General Abdullah bin Sadiq al-Mahri has now taken over the base near the Nishtun seaport. Their presence also extends to Al-Ghaydah Airport. These three locations, where the NSF is currently deployed, hold significant strategic importance for Saudi Arabia. It seems that ongoing negotiations and new arrangements are taking shape at this time.

74,871 views

So sorry Shelly. Hope you are safe. #Breaking U.S. journalist Shelly Kittleson is reported to have been kidnapped in central Baghdad, #Iraq near the Palestine Hotel on Saadoun Street. CCTV footage reportedly captured the moment of the abduction, showing an armed group carrying it out. Iraqi security forces have launched search operations and are tracking the suspects. One suspect has reportedly been arrested after a vehicle linked to the kidnappers crashed during a pursuit. Kittleson has worked for years from Baghdad, covering armed groups, US Iraq relations, and regional security for outlets including AL-MONITOR, Foreign Policy, and others.

So sorry Shelly. Hope you are safe. #Breaking U.S. journalist Shelly Kittleson is reported to have been kidnapped in central Baghdad, #Iraq near the Palestine Hotel on Saadoun Street. CCTV footage reportedly captured the moment of the abduction, showing an armed group carrying it out. Iraqi security forces have launched search operations and are tracking the suspects. One suspect has reportedly been arrested after a vehicle linked to the kidnappers crashed during a pursuit. Kittleson has worked for years from Baghdad, covering armed groups, US Iraq relations, and regional security for outlets including AL-MONITOR, Foreign Policy, and others.

37,154 views

Breaking | Saudi وزارة الدفاع RSAF warplanes are pounding the Al Zand base, south of Zabeed, Al Dhale’, southwestern Yemen, hometown of المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي’s leader عيدروس الزُبيدي - Aidaros Alzubidi. Now we know he didn’t travel to Riyadh tonight.

Breaking | Saudi وزارة الدفاع RSAF warplanes are pounding the Al Zand base, south of Zabeed, Al Dhale’, southwestern Yemen, hometown of المجلس الانتقالي الجنوبي’s leader عيدروس الزُبيدي - Aidaros Alzubidi. Now we know he didn’t travel to Riyadh tonight.

54,114 views

Former Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi @HadiPresiden passed away. In a 2017 interview with Talal Al-Haj on العربية, he recalled a warning he had made at the United Nations in 2012 about Iran’s regional ambitions. “Iran had an old strategy,” Hadi said. “The strategy was to control the Bab al-Mandab Strait and then the Strait of Hormuz. If it were able to control both waterways, it would not need to become a nuclear power. It could exert pressure on the world through these two vital gateways between East and West and achieve global influence. These were its ambitions, and I raised this issue at the United Nations.” A year before, in 2016, he echoed a similar message to قناة الجزيرة’s Murad Hashim, saying, “Iran has aspirations to control Bab al-Mandab, and to control Strait of Hormuz.”

Former Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi @HadiPresiden passed away. In a 2017 interview with Talal Al-Haj on العربية, he recalled a warning he had made at the United Nations in 2012 about Iran’s regional ambitions. “Iran had an old strategy,” Hadi said. “The strategy was to control the Bab al-Mandab Strait and then the Strait of Hormuz. If it were able to control both waterways, it would not need to become a nuclear power. It could exert pressure on the world through these two vital gateways between East and West and achieve global influence. These were its ambitions, and I raised this issue at the United Nations.” A year before, in 2016, he echoed a similar message to قناة الجزيرة’s Murad Hashim, saying, “Iran has aspirations to control Bab al-Mandab, and to control Strait of Hormuz.”

17,166 views

Iran strikes the FairmontHotels in Dubai, UAE

Iran strikes the FairmontHotels in Dubai, UAE

36,683 views

Israeli media report that Hezbollah fired about 100 rockets and missiles from several locations across northern Israel, including Haifa. The strike happened at the same time as an Iranian attack on Israel. This marks at least the second large joint attack by Iran and Hezbollah on Israel.

Israeli media report that Hezbollah fired about 100 rockets and missiles from several locations across northern Israel, including Haifa. The strike happened at the same time as an Iranian attack on Israel. This marks at least the second large joint attack by Iran and Hezbollah on Israel.

30,868 views

Gulf Oil War: U.S. airstrikes did not hit energy facilities on Iran’s Kharg Island, but Iran responded with attacks on regional oil assets. An oil tanker was struck in UAE territorial waters and a fuel storage tank was hit in Fujairah. At the same time, a fire is burning at an oil facility in Muharraq, Bahrain. Tehran appears to be focusing more on Bahrain and the UAE because both countries have normalized relations with Israel. The conflict is shifting toward economic pressure through energy infrastructure. The situation is now entering its third week and shows signs of turning into a prolonged economic confrontation.

Gulf Oil War: U.S. airstrikes did not hit energy facilities on Iran’s Kharg Island, but Iran responded with attacks on regional oil assets. An oil tanker was struck in UAE territorial waters and a fuel storage tank was hit in Fujairah. At the same time, a fire is burning at an oil facility in Muharraq, Bahrain. Tehran appears to be focusing more on Bahrain and the UAE because both countries have normalized relations with Israel. The conflict is shifting toward economic pressure through energy infrastructure. The situation is now entering its third week and shows signs of turning into a prolonged economic confrontation.

27,216 views

Mahjoub Brigade Video, Disinformation, and Verified Updates on the Death of Saif Al Islam Gaddafi Libyan media and sources close to the Gaddafi family have formally confirmed the death of Saif al Islam Gaddafi سيف الإسلام معمر القذافي following a targeted armed attack near the city of Zintan. The incident is reported to have occurred between 2:00 and 3:00 p.m. local time, though no official state statement has confirmed the exact timing. The same sources reported that Mohammed, the son of Saif's bodyguard from the Zintan Battalion, Colonel Al Ajmi Al Atiri, was wounded or killed during the incident. They also categorically denied reports claiming the killing of Colonel Al Ajmi Al Atiri, stating that such claims are false. According to a video report circulated by individuals close to the family, Saif Al Islam’s body was transferred to a rural hospital in Al Rujban, Libya, after his death. This information has not been independently verified by official authorities. Separately, the al Mahjoub Brigade released a video showing what it described as celebrations in Misrata following news of Saif Al Islam’s killing. The video circulated widely online but did not include any claim of responsibility or evidence linking the brigade to the attack itself. The al Mahjoub Brigade is a Misrata based armed group formed in 2011 that participated in major post 2011 conflicts. It is not formally affiliated with the Libyan state. Analysts note that while the brigade has influence during wartime, public reactions or celebratory messaging do not indicate operational involvement in the killing. Libyan analysts and media outlets emphasized that many individuals and factions linked to the February 17 revolution maintain longstanding grievances against the Gaddafi family and against what Saif Al Islam represented politically. Expressions of approval or celebration reflect political hostility rather than proof of participation in the attack. In parallel, viral images circulated online claiming to show Saif Al Islam’s body next to soldiers wearing Unit 444 insignia, as well as images depicting him in an intensive care unit. Libyan journalists and fact checkers confirmed that both sets of images are fake and AI generated. Unit 444 officially denied any involvement and stated that it has no connection to the incident. Security sources continue to confirm that there is no evidence of large scale military mobilization or clashes linked to the killing. Local authorities in Zintan reported no unusual troop movements or fighting in the area at the time of the incident. As of now, no group has claimed responsibility. The identities of the four attackers who disabled communications and CCTV at Saif’s residence remain unknown. The method of access and the extent of planning behind the operation have not been verified. Authorities and media outlets say investigations are ongoing and caution that information should be treated carefully until official findings are released. Based on past patterns in Libya, many observers believe the case is likely to be closed without accountability, leaving the attackers unidentified and adding another unresolved killing to the country’s long list of disappearances and unsolved cases.

Mahjoub Brigade Video, Disinformation, and Verified Updates on the Death of Saif Al Islam Gaddafi Libyan media and sources close to the Gaddafi family have formally confirmed the death of Saif al Islam Gaddafi سيف الإسلام معمر القذافي following a targeted armed attack near the city of Zintan. The incident is reported to have occurred between 2:00 and 3:00 p.m. local time, though no official state statement has confirmed the exact timing. The same sources reported that Mohammed, the son of Saif's bodyguard from the Zintan Battalion, Colonel Al Ajmi Al Atiri, was wounded or killed during the incident. They also categorically denied reports claiming the killing of Colonel Al Ajmi Al Atiri, stating that such claims are false. According to a video report circulated by individuals close to the family, Saif Al Islam’s body was transferred to a rural hospital in Al Rujban, Libya, after his death. This information has not been independently verified by official authorities. Separately, the al Mahjoub Brigade released a video showing what it described as celebrations in Misrata following news of Saif Al Islam’s killing. The video circulated widely online but did not include any claim of responsibility or evidence linking the brigade to the attack itself. The al Mahjoub Brigade is a Misrata based armed group formed in 2011 that participated in major post 2011 conflicts. It is not formally affiliated with the Libyan state. Analysts note that while the brigade has influence during wartime, public reactions or celebratory messaging do not indicate operational involvement in the killing. Libyan analysts and media outlets emphasized that many individuals and factions linked to the February 17 revolution maintain longstanding grievances against the Gaddafi family and against what Saif Al Islam represented politically. Expressions of approval or celebration reflect political hostility rather than proof of participation in the attack. In parallel, viral images circulated online claiming to show Saif Al Islam’s body next to soldiers wearing Unit 444 insignia, as well as images depicting him in an intensive care unit. Libyan journalists and fact checkers confirmed that both sets of images are fake and AI generated. Unit 444 officially denied any involvement and stated that it has no connection to the incident. Security sources continue to confirm that there is no evidence of large scale military mobilization or clashes linked to the killing. Local authorities in Zintan reported no unusual troop movements or fighting in the area at the time of the incident. As of now, no group has claimed responsibility. The identities of the four attackers who disabled communications and CCTV at Saif’s residence remain unknown. The method of access and the extent of planning behind the operation have not been verified. Authorities and media outlets say investigations are ongoing and caution that information should be treated carefully until official findings are released. Based on past patterns in Libya, many observers believe the case is likely to be closed without accountability, leaving the attackers unidentified and adding another unresolved killing to the country’s long list of disappearances and unsolved cases.

31,949 views

Videos

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The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, فرماندهی نیروی دریایی سپاه, released two videos today accompanied by increasingly confrontational messaging directed at the United States. The first l appears to show the U.S. Navy U.S. Marines USS Iwo Jima USS Iwo Jima, LHD-7, an American amphibious assault ship. Based on publicly available imagery, the footage may have been recorded near the U.S. Gulf Coast around Texas several days ago, although that has not been independently verified. If accurate, it is unclear whether the IRGC is attempting to signal a capability to monitor U.S. naval assets beyond the Persian Gulf or is simply using the imagery as part of a broader information campaign. The accompanying message stated: “The movements and military assets of the terrorist U.S. military are under the surveillance of the naval forces of the Islamic Republic. The Americans are drawing closer by the moment to the zero hour for operations against U.S. Central Command naval forces in the region’s waters. Wait for it…” In a second video, the IRGC Navy shared footage purporting to show a precision drone strike against a tanker that it claimed had violated regulations governing the Strait of Hormuz. The accompanying statement read: “Footage showing the precise strike by an IRGC Navy attack drone on a tanker accused of violating regulations in the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC Navy announced that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the terrorist U.S. military ends its hostile actions in the region.”

Basha باشا

246,453 views • 8 days ago

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I just finished a live interview on Al Jazeera English, where we discussed the latest developments in Yemen following the strike on Sana’a International Airport and the growing tensions between the Houthis, Internationally Recognized Government of Yemen, Saudi Arabia-led coalition in Yemen, and Iran. The anchor noted that this scenario closely aligned with the forecasts I shared with clients on 03 July 2026 and published publicly in recent days. While I assessed an attack on the airport as the least likely among several possible scenarios, I also emphasized that Yemen remains highly unpredictable, which is why our forecasts focus on cautious probabilities rather than certainties. During the interview, I explained that despite today’s developments, I do not believe we have crossed the point of no return toward a full-scale war. In my view, the Saudi-led coalition’s decision to allow the Mahan Air flight to land in Hodeidah was an important signal that regional backchannel diplomacy remains active and that key actors are still trying to prevent a broader conflict. I also noted that the next move now rests with the Houthis. My assessment is that they are likely to respond with drone and missile attacks against Saudi Arabia. Limited attacks would likely lead to a measured response. However, if they expand their campaign to target Saudi oil and energy infrastructure, especially aramco, the risk of a much broader military response would increase significantly. We also discussed the Houthis’ growing focus on Saudi Arabia, their deteriorating economic conditions at home, the possibility of renewed ground operations, and the ongoing diplomatic efforts by Oman, Qatar, and the @OSE_Yemen to contain the crisis. My assessment remains that we are likely to see a calculated, tit-for-tat escalation rather than an immediate return to full-scale war. That said, the situation remains highly fluid, and the coming days will be critical in determining whether diplomacy can stay ahead of military escalation.

Basha باشا

217,186 views • 13 days ago