Bechara Gerges
@BecharaGerges • 8,180 subscribers
I examine who gained, who lost, and what changes next. Strategic communications & geopolitical reads where policy meets power across the Levant, Gulf, and DC.
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🚩Fouad Makhzoumi: My position is unambiguous: I support this framework. For the first time in seventy years, Lebanon holds a text signed by the United States, Israel, and Lebanon, in which Israel declares it has no claim to Lebanese territory and wants the Lebanese Army controlling the ground. Hezbollah’s entire case for the arsenal rested on one claim: Israel never leaves. The framework calls that bluff with a signature. And what did the weapons deliver? Makhzoumi counted it: eleven hills under Israeli control, fifty-seven villages wiped off the map, more than a million Lebanese displaced, tens of billions in destruction. The arsenal that promised protection produced occupation. The tell is where the party looks for rescue: Islamabad and the Iran file, not Washington, where Lebanon’s own signature sits. That answers Makhzoumi’s question. The position is Iranian, not Lebanese. The solution exists: pilot zones. The Army deploys, Hezbollah withdraws, Israel pulls back in parallel, and the state follows with schools, hospitals, and investment, so the southerner’s future belongs to Lebanon, not Tehran’s payroll. Makhzoumi’s challenge stands: reject Lebanon’s first direct negotiation in seventy years, and leave the government you feed from. When the Army enters the first pilot zone, we will learn what the weapons were for.
Bechara Gerges101,786 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
وئام وهاب مَسَح الأرض ببشار الأسد وبالمحور، وبالآخر يطلب السلام مع إسرائيل — أترك لكم التعليق..
Bechara Gerges216,947 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
🚩Seven minutes. Watch them before you form an opinion on Lebanon’s next few years, and watch the last two minutes twice. Most people are still arguing about whether Hezbollah will hand over its rockets. Fouad Makhzoumi just moved the conversation to where the outcome was always going to be decided: the money. You do not disarm a militia by counting its missiles only. You disarm it by severing the financing that rebuilds every missile the state destroys. Fouad Makhzoumi’s roadmap goes after both arms at once: military and financial, because one without the other isn’t sovereignty, it’s theater. And Lebanon has had enough theater. From there he does what almost no one in Lebanon does cleanly: he lays out what the Washington table actually needs to succeed, why suspending the 1955 boycott law is a Lebanese national decision and not a foreign concession, and why reform at home has to move in parallel, not after. 🚩Then the part everyone should sit with. Lebanese sovereignty plus the Lebanese people’s interest and American strategic interest are not two competing files. They are one. A security pact with Washington isn’t dependency, it’s the lock that makes reform survivable, so the state that finally moves against Hezbollah isn’t left standing alone the second it does. This is the rare Lebanese voice speaking to Beirut, Washington, and the Gulf in the same breath, and being understood in all three.
Bechara Gerges62,196 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce
🚩Front runners don’t withdraw. At quarter to eight on the morning of the consultations, one did. Fouad Makhzoumi had secured over 31 of parliament’s 128 votes. Nawaf Salam held about a dozen. Three names on the ballot was the trap: split the opposition and the seat reverts to Najib Mikati, Lebanon walks back to the world before November 27, 2024, a cabinet Hezbollah could own. Salam wouldn’t step aside. So the man who was ahead did. There’s a three thousand year old test for exactly this. Two claimants, one child, a sword offered as fairness. The false one says cut. The real mother gives the child away whole, because she was never in it to hold him. She was in it to keep him alive. Makhzoumi even named the child, on camera: a country with a place for our children and grandchildren. He was ahead, and he let go. That is how Solomon found the real mother. I’ve quote reposted the complete interview: a must watch👇
Bechara Gerges44,251 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
غدي فرنسيس: "أُقَبِلُ نُبلَ أيادي القوات اللبنانية في كل القرى في لبنان"..!
Bechara Gerges193,517 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
🚩 مريم يونس، شابة لبنانية مارونية، اضطرت عائلتها عام 2000 إلى مغادرة بلدتها في الجنوب واللجوء إلى إسرائيل. يدور الحوار معها حول مسألة الهوية والانتماء، والحياة اليومية داخل المجتمع الإسرائيلي، وكيفية نظرة شعوب الشرق الأوسط إلى إسرائيل، والصورة المقابلة التي تراها إسرائيل عن محيطها. رابط الحوار الكامل 👇
Bechara Gerges101,430 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
🚩 اسمعوه جيداً، الجزء الرابع، عن اغتيال السيد حسن نصرالله هل تذكرون كم مرّة سمعنا أن سيناريو اغتيال السيد نصرالله سيستدعي ردّاً كاسحاً من "محور المقاومة" بكل قوّته؟ لكن ذلك لم يحدث، بطبيعة الحال. ويقول حسن الدر في هذا المقطع إن السيد نصرالله لم يكن أميناً عاماً لـ"حزب الله" بل أميناً عاماً لـ"محور المقاومة"، فيما كان السيد هاشم صفيّ الدين يتولّى إدارة حزب الله في الداخل. ويضيف أن اغتيال السيد نصرالله لم يكن وارداً في الحسابات، وكأن إسرائيل لن تجرؤ على استهدافه، وكأن موقعه يتجاوز آلة إسرائيل الحربية والسياسية. غير أن الوقائع أظهرت العكس، إذ تبيّن، بحسب توصيفه، أن إسرائيل رسمت مسارات هذه الحرب من أوّلها إلى آخرها بدهاء وذكاء.
Bechara Gerges73,682 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce
🚩 اسمعوه جيداً، لسببين: أولاً: هل تتذكرون الحملة التي أطلقها حزب الله بعد عملية "البايجر" حين قيل إنّ جرحى "البايجر" كانوا إداريين ومدنيين لا عسكريين؟ تبيّن اليوم أنّهم في الواقع نخبة من مقاتلي الحزب الذين يشرفون على رماية الصواريخ وإدارتها. ثانياً: يقول حسن الدرّ في هذا المقطع إن 95% من أهداف إسرائيل ضد حزب الله كانت عسكرية، من دون إسقاط مدنيين.
Bechara Gerges70,127 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce
🚩Fouad Makhzoumi’s position is bigger than a peace line He is separating Lebanon’s national interest from the Palestinian file because that linkage became the mechanism through which Hezbollah imports war, assigns the bill to Beirut, and then moralizes the wreckage as “resistance”. 🚩A Beiruti Sunni leader saying this publicly matters because it breaks the veto that has governed Lebanon for decades: before Lebanon may protect itself, it must first wait for every unresolved regional cause to be settled. The historical anchor is not the Abraham Accords alone. It is 1949. Lebanon and Israel signed an armistice at Ras en Naqoura on March 23, 1949, before any Arab peace initiative, and long before Hezbollah existed to confiscate the border in Iran’s name. So Makhzoumi is not inventing a taboo. He is restoring a Lebanese state precedent. The Trump offer now on the table changes the clock. Washington has moved the file from moral hesitation to political choice: either Lebanon takes the only offer backed by the only power able to enforce it, or Hezbollah keeps the country trapped inside Iran’s war calendar. Peace is not sentimental here. It is strategic insulation. It removes Lebanon from the firing map, returns war and peace to the state, and forces Hezbollah to explain why Lebanese children must keep paying for wars no Lebanese state declared.
Bechara Gerges40,956 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce
🚩President Joseph Aoun to CNN confronting Tehran directly: Lebanon is not Iran’s country, it is ours. He accused Iran of using Lebanon as a bargaining chip in its negotiations with the United States, and put Hezbollah on notice that there’s no other way except through one path only, negotiation.
Bechara Gerges37,642 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce
🚩 اسمعوه جيداً، الجزء الثاني: هل تذكرون الأحداث بعد فشل عملية الصواريخ التي كانت مُعِدّة للرد على اغتيال القائد العسكري في حزب الله فؤاد شكر، والتي هدد السيد حسن نصرالله بأنها ستكون "ردّاً قاسياً" على إسرائيل، قبل أن تُحبِط إسرائيل العملية؟ هل تذكرون ماذا قال السيد نصرالله بعدها؟ خرج إلى الإعلام داعياً إلى عدم تضخيم عملية الإحباط الإسرائيلية، معتبراً أنّ إسرائيل لم تفعل سوى استهداف منصّات صواريخ لا تتجاوز كلفتها بضع مئات من الدولارات، وأن الأمر لم يكن عملية معقّدة كما يصوّرها الإعلام اللبناني والإسرائيلي والعالمي، وبأن "عملية حزب الله حققت أهدافها." لكن هذا المقطع يكشف صورة مغايرة تماماً: العملية الإسرائيلية كانت ناجحة بنسبة 100% ضد حزب الله.
Bechara Gerges58,958 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce
