Cleve V. Arguelles
@CleveArguelles • 5,817 subscribers
Political scientist writing on Philippines & Southeast Asia politics | Former President & CEO of public opinion research firm @WR_Numero
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In 2001, Senator Nene Pimentel resigned as Senate President when pro-Erap Senator-Judges gave in to political loyalities and voted to keep important evidence secret during the impeachment trial of then president Joseph Estrada. In 2025, his son Senator Koko Pimentel moves to convene the Senate as an impeachment court— urging it not to walk away from its constitutional duty to hold the impeachment trial of VP Sara Duterte.
Cleve V. Arguelles236,536 просмотров • 1 год назад
On TV Patrol: According to a March 2026 national survey, 1 in 2 Filipinos say they lack awareness of the allegations and evidence against VP Sara Duterte. In response, we’re forming the #BantaySenado network, a citizen-led initiative to monitor how Senate will lead the impeachment trial. Watch out for the public launch very soon— and we’ll be going to barangays, schools, and other community spaces around the country to inform and engage Filipinos to monitor the trial. More than 350 volunteers, mostly students and young professionals, have already signed up to power the network and we’re looking for more! If you’re keen to join our mission, sign up via Bantay Senado is open to all those who believe in constitutional duty, accountability, and truth. Sama-sama natin bantayan ang Senado at paglilitis ni VP Sara! 👁️
Cleve V. Arguelles24,891 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
Using the Tiangco and Discaya testimonies, Escudero and Marcoleta gambled on channeling public outrage over the flood control corruption scandal to weaken the anti-Duterte bloc in the House, particularly its leadership. Not only did that strategy collapse, but they also lost their own leadership posts in the process. Now, it is the House leadership’s turn to take aim— all ears on another day of hearing. But what remains uncertain is which side the public will ultimately embrace in this Malacañang vs. House vs. Senate standoff. Each camp is scrambling to get out of the boiling water that, at any moment, could turn an indignant, though still largely resigned, public into bodies in the streets. No one is marked safe until the steam rises and dissipates.
Cleve V. Arguelles99,348 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад
On DZMM: Our Senate is facing a crisis of trust. Bawat linggo, may bagong (pa)bidang senador — at panibagong dahilan kung bakit nawawalan ng kumpiyansa ang publiko sa Senado. May haio siao senator. May “kamustahin ninyo naman ako” senator. Meron din bawal masigawan at may bawal matanong. May Senador din na nagwawala at ang… nawawala. Filipinos deserve a respected and trusted Senate that works: one that legislates to solve our most urgent problems, scrutinizes abuse of government power fearlessly, and puts public service above spectacle. Nasaan ang Senado na iyon?
Cleve V. Arguelles14,274 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
VP Sara Duterte is the early favorite for 2028— but history is not on her side. She is running against a usual dynamic in Philippine electoral politics: front-runners rarely survive the long campaign to Malacañang. Past elections have been unforgiving to early favorites in surveys: Isko Moreno (2022), Binay and Poe (2016), Manny Villar (2010), Raul Roco (2004). Today, 33% of Filipinos say they prefer VP Sara as president in 2028. But the inverse is as important: almost 70% of the electorate is searching for someone, anyone, who is not Sara Duterte. Couple that with the scent of another impeachment fight next year, and you begin to see the outline of why the next presidential elections is for many in the political class is still an open fight. Wala sa bituin ang kapalaran ng ating bansa. Mayroon tayong free will, gamitin natin ito! 🥊
Cleve V. Arguelles47,236 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад
Duterte trolls are working overtime to flood online publics with a narrative that draws the attention away from the involvement of the Duterte administration in the flood corruption scandal. Over the last few days, they’ve been dragging even Mayor Vico Sotto into the mud for choosing the House inquiry (over then Duterte-led Senate) and effectively revealing to the public that the Discaya testimony cannot be trusted (to the disappointment of those who wanted to shield the Senators). But who pays for the trolls? And with what money? Kickbacks too from ghost projects? Gisang-gisa nanaman tayo sa sariling mantika! As Duterte influence in government weakens and they become increasingly more desperate, they continue to cling to any scandal like driftwood, clawing for relevance while four fingers point back at them. What Filipinos want is accountability that cuts deep and wide— bottom to top, across all dynasties and factions, no exemptions for this or the past administrations.
Cleve V. Arguelles29,445 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад
Sa TV Patrol: Sa isang banda, maaaring makabuti kay VP Sara ang early announcement ng kanyang pagkandidato sa 2028 presidential elections. Dahil sa banta ng impeachment at nagpapatuloy na pagdinig sa ICC, ang early announcement ay reassurance at pagpapaalala din sa kanilang mga taga-suporta at ka-alyado sa pulitika— isang pahiwatig na hindi dapat iwan ang kanilang kampo dahil hindi pa tapos ang laban ng mga Duterte (at ang banta na maaari sila makabalik sa kapangyarihan). Sa kabilang banda, malaking pagsubok kay VP Sara na mabasag ang sumpa ng pagiging early frontrunner. Sa mga nagdaang eleksyon, ang mga maagang lumalamang sa mga surveys ay kadalasan na hindi nananalo o natutuloy ang pagkandidato bilang pangulo (Binay in 2016, Kabayan Noli in 2010, FPJ in 2004). Mas may oportunidad din at dahilan ang mga kalaban na magkaisa o mag-coordinate laban sa early frontrunner. Kaya't sa huli, ang maagang pagdeklara ay hindi garantiya ng tagumpay. Sa ating mga eleksyon, maraming maagang frontrunner ang nauuwi sa pagkatalo.
Cleve V. Arguelles13,278 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад
An overwhelming 90% majority of Filipinos want VP Sara Duterte to face impeachment trial— this is according to April 2025 WR Numero nationwide survey. Senate must do its constitutional duty to immediately proceed to trial, and respond to Filipinos who are expecting that it will do its work as an impeachment court.
Cleve V. Arguelles25,686 просмотров • 1 год назад
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