Common Sense Investor (CSI)
@commonsenseplay • 31,455 subscribers
On a crusade to bring the truth to retail stock market investors, let’s beat Wall Street and insiders this time. Completely independent! Not financial advice.
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BREAKING: MONDAY WE WILL SEE A CORRECTION IN THE STOCK MARKET! The $2,000 “dividend” is NOT going to be a traditional stimulus check. Bessent has clearly been doing damage control over the past couple hours. He’s now saying: “The $2,000 dividend could come in lots of forms and lots of ways. It could simply be the tax decreases that are part of the President’s agenda.” Examples he floated: - No tax on tips - No tax on overtime - No tax on Social Security - Deductibility of auto loans i.e. no mention of check's! Important context: This is not a direct injection of cash like a 2020 stimulus check. It’s not guaranteed money hitting people’s bank accounts, it’s potential tax-side changes… which could take months to implement, could phase in slowly, and may not even translate to a net $2,000 for most people depending on their income and deductions! This is NOT bullish for the stock market. There’s no immediate liquidity event here - no sudden retail inflow, no “free money” impulse buying moment. So while the headlines are flashy, the mechanics behind this are policy-structural, not liquidity-driven! Last ditched attempt by TRUMP to save the stock market correction coming from the Government shutdown!
Common Sense Investor (CSI)2,259,764 views • 8 months ago
WHY YOU’RE GOING TO LOSE MONEY ON STOCKS THIS DECADE! Legendary investor Howard Marks puts it bluntly: “When you buy the S&P 500 at a 23x P/E, your 10-yr annualized return has always fallen between +2% and –2%, IN EVERY CASE, EVERY CASE.” Today the market sits at a 25x P/E. Add inflation… and your “returns” are negative. So what’s Marks doing? Buying bonds! During the 2000–2002 crash: - Long-term Treasuries: +40–45% - NASDAQ: –78% History doesn’t repeat perfectly, but it rhymes. We might only be in the first inning of the next pullback. I’m already reallocating heavily into long-term bond ETFs like $TLT and $ZFL.TO, and I think they’ll outperform for years.
Common Sense Investor (CSI)2,154,933 views • 8 months ago
Michael Burry’s rant against the CNBC for getting his trades totally wrong! “The press – on CNBC – say I have a 10billion dollar short position on $PLTR Palantir” “It’s 10 million” … not 10billion! Are the press singling him out, or are they just totally idiotic in their understanding of 13F’s, to get his trade position wrong by two orders of magnitude? Full interview on “Against the Rules with Michael Lewis” podcast linked in the comments! Also side note - Michael Burry rocking the new hair do in a hoodie - he is clearly enjoying the substack retirement.
Common Sense Investor (CSI)730,999 views • 7 months ago
Give credit where it’s due: Back in 2012, when Apple traded in the $500 range (pre-split), a young Michael Saylor Michael Saylor said, “ $AAPL Apple could go to $2,000 per share!” People thought he was crazy at the time - but he absolutely nailed it! Today, after two stock splits since 2012, $AAPL is worth the equivalent of more than $7,600 per share.
Common Sense Investor (CSI)510,928 views • 8 months ago
BREAKING: $RGTI CEO on Yahoo Finance this morning: “Sales don’t matter for us.” “3–5 years for quantum advantage.” “7–9 years for fault-tolerant quantum computers.” The reason the CEO can be honest is he sold all of his shares back in May! Translation: the CEO is openly saying there will be no meaningful commercial revenue for the better part of a decade. Investors are pricing a revenue story around quantum advantage being here and now that literally doesn’t exist yet. This stock is going to get crushed.
Common Sense Investor (CSI)379,941 views • 9 months ago
8 years ago in 2018, Elon Musk warned: "Mark my words, AI is far more dangerous than nukes. The danger of AI is much greater than the danger of nuclear warheads by a lot" ..."so why don't we have regulatory oversight?" He specifically called out Sam Altman's OpenAI as a potential threat to humanity if left unregulated. Yet AI development and investment continue at an unparalleled pace. Where is the regulatory oversight? And why do I feel Elon Musk has gone noticeably quieter on these dangers, instead spearheading the charge himself through xAI.
Common Sense Investor (CSI)241,638 views • 5 months ago
BREAKING: MUST WATCH FOR EVERYONE WHO OWNS STOCKS. Legendary Investor Howard Marks appearing yesterday on Bloomberg discussed Retail being pushed to invest in Private Credit, Stock Market Cycles and "Cockroaches in the Coal Mine". "It's only during tough economic times that we learn who lent money stupidly!" If you can spare 5 mins today watch this video! Like and follow if you enjoy this content - appreciate it!
Common Sense Investor (CSI)191,260 views • 4 months ago
THE STOCK MARKET CRASH IS SET UP PERFECTLY! 1. Consumers are still spending money they don't have. - Consumer spending makes up 70% of GDP - But personal savings are near record lows and - Credit card balances are at record highs - This is not sustainable and when consumers stop spending - earnings fall and markets follow! 2. The labor market has persevered but is showing cracks. - Hiring has slowed significantly and layoffs are increasing - Its not a strong labor market, its a lagging labor market which always happens right before downturns! - Less people employed means less consumer spending Rate cuts won't save us this time! Here is the cycle of false confidence that always happens right before the real crash, and it's happening RIGHT NOW!
Common Sense Investor (CSI)274,465 views • 6 months ago
MUST WATCH: This is the greatest threat to the stock market in 2026. It could cause the MAG 7 to collapse. $OPEN $OKLO $BTQ $GME $IONQ $RGTI $PLTR $BBAI $QUBT $ACHR $JOBY $IREN $LAES $BTC $BTQ $JOBY $OPEN $META $NVDA $GOOG $TLT $PLTR $PATH $AMZN $MSFT $NFLX
Common Sense Investor (CSI)250,738 views • 7 months ago
WARREN BUFFETT AND JAMIE DIMON ON WHY NOT TO INVEST IN CRYPTO $BTC $ETH! Warren Buffett explains it perfectly: - "If you buy something like Bitcoin or some cryptocurrency, you don't really have anything that is producing" ..like a farm or a business... "YOU ARE JUST HOPING THE NEXT GUY PAYS MORE". I agree with Buffett and personally do not invest in crypto. The risk of catastrophic drawdowns in this asset class alone gives me heartburn. In the past 9 years, $BTC has experienced: - 6 declines greater than -50% - 3 declines greater than -75% That level of volatility is far beyond what I’m comfortable with for an “asset,” if you can even call it that, where you are essentially just hoping the next person pays more. People often argue that Bitcoin’s value comes from its finite supply: - The maximum amount of Bitcoin that can ever exist is 21 million $BTC. - As of now, about 19.7M+ BTC have already been mined. - The last bitcoin is expected to be mined around the year 2140. - This limit is "hard-coded" into Bitcoin’s protocol by Satoshi Nakamoto. But as Jamie Dimon (JPM CEO) said last year - - "How do you know if it's going to stop at 21 million" - "Maybe it gets to 21 million and Satoshi's picture comes up laughing at you all, and by then he would take taken out billions of dollars"!
Common Sense Investor (CSI)294,341 views • 8 months ago
Jensen never changed his mind on Quantum! - "We are working with every quantum company in the world" - "15 years is on the early side, 30 years is a little late" - "Most of us settle on 20 years" $ionq $rgti $qubt $qbts He didn't change his entire view in a few months. He just doesn't want to crash the market and these companies stock price, like he did last time. He want's to see the industry progress and they earn $NVIDIA money! But the technology is still 15 - 20 years away.
Common Sense Investor302,529 views • 9 months ago
ONE OF THE WORLD GREATEST INVESTORS ON WHY BITCOIN $BTC IS ANTISOCIAL, STUPID AND IMMORAL! Charlie Munger gave this interview not long before his death, here are his key thoughts on $BTC: - "The Computer Science that is behind Bitcoin is a great triumph for the human mind" - "They've actually created a product that is hard to create more of, but not impossible" - "A lot of the Computer Science people love it just because its such an extreme achievement of Computer Science" - "I see an artificial speculative medium, that people are buying just because they think they can sell it to somebody else at a higher price, even though it inherently has no intrinsic value" - "I regard the whole business as anti-social, stupid and immoral" In summary: 1. Munger’s issue wasn’t the tech - it was the economics. He admired the innovation but saw no cash flow or intrinsic value behind the asset. 2. His critique reflects classic value-investing logic: if you can’t price it, you’re not investing..you’re speculating. 3. He viewed Bitcoin’s rise as a product of FOMO and gambler psychology, not productive economic activity. I agree with him, Bitcoin is not a store of value it's dropped 30% in just the last few weeks. BITCOIN IS NOT THE NEW GOLD!
Common Sense Investor (CSI)184,748 views • 8 months ago
Breaking: Stanley Druckenmiller says he expects to lose money on his short bonds position $TLT He’s not using it for profit - he’s using it as a hedge against higher-risk bets in: - Korea, Japan & Brazil - Copper - Gold Important context: Druckenmiller knows he has a massive retail following. Timing matters. When a legendary macro investor publicly lays out positioning, you have to consider the possibility that exposure is already being reduced into strength. i.e. you are the exit liquidity!! No one gives away their full portfolio edge for free. I’m positioned the other way - 60% of my portfolio is long bonds $TLT
Common Sense Investor (CSI)106,699 views • 5 months ago
BREAKING: THE MOST IMPORTANT VIDEO TO WATCH IF YOU ARE INVESTED IN QUANTUM COMPUTING COMPANIES. $IONQ $RGTI $QBTS $QUBT The world's leading quantum computing researcher Scott Aaronson calls out the scams and snakeoilmen in the public quantum computing stock market. $IONQ $RGTI $QBTS $QUBT - "The most important thing that I can say in this whole interview, if I am taking to Retail investors is that unfortunately there are companies that I see that are really trying to solve the hardware problems, they might succeed, they might fail but they are really focused on solving the real problems and talking about it more or less honestly" - "and then there are companies that have focused on like marketing themselves to Retail investors and doing IPO's" i.e. the 4 public quantum computing companies IONQ, Rigetti, D-Wave and QUBT. - "and I see these 2 sets of companies being mostly disjoint from each other" - "So the companies that have focused on doing IPO's are actually not the ones that are in the lead on in the hardware, what they are in the lead on is selling a narrative to people...... - "convincing people this is already useful for solving problems in optimization and machine learning and finance, which sounds great to people, but all depends on you agreeing to not ask the question Q. well could a classical computer have done that just as well, could a classical computer actually have done that much faster and easier " "When people are talking about that the big use of a quantum computer is to solve optimization or machine learning problems or to turbo charge AI, or it can already do this, it's already delivering value to customers...." "these are the tells you are dealing with a SNAKEOIL SALESMAN" He calls out the "scammy" companies in this space! Remember the only 4 quantum pure play companies that have IPO'd are $IONQ $RGTI $QUBT $QBTS He also says earlier in the interview “I would say $IONQ has not demonstrated anything in trapped ion hardware close to what Quantinuum has demonstrated in the last year” YOU ARE BEING LIED TO! Full video in comments from the The Quantum Bull
Common Sense Investor (CSI)140,077 views • 7 months ago
I still can't believe the $ionq CEO is getting away with saying this. "they will wipe the floor" with NVIDIA by 2027. That's 15 months away. Peak hype, verging on fraud. He also says this while selling $104million dollars worth of shares, making himself rich off the hype comments he makes on every podcast/interview. Won't end well! $IONQ $RGTI
Common Sense Investor (CSI)172,003 views • 9 months ago
WARREN BUFFETT’S ADVICE ON PREPARING FOR A BEAR MARKET Key Points: - “If the market gets cheaper, we’ll have many more opportunities to do intelligent things with money.” -“We’re going to be buying things- operating businesses, stocks, high-yield bonds, whatever.” -“I’m going to be buying for the rest of my life, just like groceries. Now, would I rather have grocery prices go up or down if I’m buying next week, next month, and next year?” -“The answer is obvious: if I’m a net buyer, I do better when prices are lower.” So, are you prepared to buy your way through a bear market? My Approach: 1.Reallocate a portion of holdings into long-term bonds and short-term Treasuries, reducing exposure to broad market indexes I believe are overvalued and due for a correction. 2.Short select bubble sectors (nuclear, quantum, flying cars). 3. Continue accumulating stocks and sectors I view as undervalued (biotech, international equities, etc.). 4. As the bear market unfolds, dollar-cost average into market indexes and gradually shift capital from fixed income back into equities. Is it crazy to think you can time the market?
Common Sense Investor (CSI)149,067 views • 8 months ago
HOW RETAIL INVESTORS CAUSED THE WORLD’S BEST-PERFORMING HEDGE FUND TO CRASH 50% IN JUST TWO WEEKS! $OPEN $OKLO $BTQ $GME $IONQ $RGTI $PLTR $BBAI $QUBT $ACHR $JOBY Michael Barton - a trader from Coatue, arguably the top-performing hedge fund today with $70B under management - was recently interviewed on Molly O’Shea ’s YouTube channel. The insights were wild: - “Before I worked at Coatue, I worked at Melvin Capital.” Yes, the hedge fund that shorted $GME. - “We went from the best-performing hedge fund in the world… to down 50% in two weeks.” Retail traders forced one of the most sophisticated funds on the planet into a historic drawdown! - “We underestimated how powerful Retail could be. When they focus all their energy on a single stock. You’re seeing the same thing now with Opendoor.” - “Investing has changed - we track everything, how often stocks are mentioned on Reddit, Twitter, internet trends… all of it.” What this really means: 1. Retail is now a legitimate force in the markets. When retail traders concentrate on specific sectors or tickers - like Quantum or Nuclear plays right now -hedge funds ride the wave up… and then short it on the way down. 2. You’re being tracked. Every major retail community - unusual_whales , zerohedge , WallStreetBets, all the trending Reddit stock groups - hedge funds scrape and analyze all of your posts. They front-run Retail sentiment and monetize it. 3. Don’t be left holding the bag. A lot of “timely” news articles that come out during hype cycles? Often funded or influenced by the same players who need exit liquidity after riding the move up with Retail. Retail piles in at the top, hedge funds exit - then short - and Retail capitulates while moving on to the next hype wave. 4. Know what you’re buying. Is it a real business with long-term fundamentals? Or just a momentum-driven hype play that hedge funds are exploiting? Don’t be the one left holding the bag. Full video linked in the comments.
Common Sense Investor (CSI)140,629 views • 8 months ago